
College football Luck Index 2025: Who needs luck on their side next season?
More Videos
Published
4 weeks agoon
By
admin-
Bill ConnellyMay 2, 2025, 08:00 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
Almost no word in the English language makes a college football fan more defensive than the L-word: luck.
We weren’t lucky to have a great turnover margin — our coaches are just really good at emphasizing ball security! We’re tougher than everyone else — that’s why we recovered all those fumbles!
We weren’t lucky to win all those close games — we’re clutch! Our coaches know how to press all the right buttons! Our quarterback is a cool customer!
We weren’t lucky to have fewer injuries than everyone else — our strength-and-conditioning coach is the best in America! And again: We’re just tougher!
As loath as we may be to admit it, a large percentage of a given college football season — with its small overall sample of games — is determined by the bounce of a pointy ball, the bend of a ligament and the whims of fate. Certain teams will end up with an unsustainably good turnover margin that turns on them the next year. Certain teams (often the same ones) will enjoy a great run of close-game fortune based on some combination of great coaching, sturdy quarterback play, timely special teams contributions … and massive amounts of unsustainable randomness. Certain teams will keep their starting lineups mostly intact for 12 or more games while another is watching its depth chart change dramatically on a week-to-week basis.
As we prepare for the 2025 college football season, it’s worth stepping back and looking at who did, and didn’t, get the bounces in 2024. Just because Lady Luck was (or wasn’t) on your side one year, doesn’t automatically mean your fortunes will flip the next, but that’s often how these things go. Be it turnovers, close-game fortune or injuries, let’s talk about the teams that were dealt the best and worst hands last fall.
Jump to a section:
Turnover luck | Close games luck
Injuries and general shuffling | Turnaround candidates
Turnover luck
In last year’s ACC championship game, Clemson bolted to a 24-7 halftime lead, then white-knuckled it to the finish. SMU came back to tie the score at 31 with only 16 seconds left, but Nolan Hauser‘s 56-yard field goal at the buzzer gave the Tigers a 34-31 victory and a spot in 2024’s College Football Playoff at Alabama’s expense.
In the first series of the game, Clemson’s T.J. Parker pulled a perfect sack-and-strip of SMU QB Kevin Jennings, forcing and falling on a loose ball at the SMU 33-yard line. Clemson scored two plays later to take a 7-0 lead. Late in the first quarter, Khalil Barnes picked off a Jennings pass near midfield, ending what could have become a scoring threat with one more first down. A few minutes later, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik fumbled at the end of a 14-yard gain, but tight end Jake Briningstool recovered it at midfield, preventing another potential scoring threat from developing. (Klubnik fumbled seven times in the 2024 season but lost only one of them.)
Early in the third quarter, after SMU cut Clemson’s lead to 24-14, David Eziomume fumbled the ensuing kickoff at the Clemson 6, but teammate Keith Adams Jr. recovered it right before two SMU players pounced.
Over 60 minutes, both teams fumbled twice, and Clemson defended (intercepted or broke up) eight passes to SMU’s seven. On average, 50% of fumbles are lost and about 21% of passes defended become INTs, so Clemson’s expected turnover margin in this game was plus-0.2 (because of the extra pass defended). The Tigers’ actual turnover margin was plus-2, a difference of 1.8 turnovers in a game they barely won.
Clemson was obviously a solid team in 2024, but the Tigers probably wouldn’t have reached the CFP without turnovers luck. For the season, they fumbled 16 times but lost only three, and comparing their expected (based on the averages above) and actual turnover margins, almost no one benefited more from the randomness of a bouncing ball.
It probably isn’t a surprise to see that, of last year’s 12 playoff teams, eight benefited from positive turnovers luck, and six were at plus-3.3 or higher. You’ve got to be lucky and good to win, right?
You aren’t often lucky for two straight years, though. It might be noteworthy to point out that, of the teams in Mark Schlabach’s Way-Too-Early 2025 rankings, five were in the top 20 in terms of turnovers luck: No. 5 Georgia, No. 7 Clemson, No. 9 BYU, No. 11 Iowa State and No. 17 Indiana (plus two others from his Teams Also Considered list: Army and Baylor).
It’s also noteworthy to point out that three teams on Schlabach’s list — No. 6 Oregon, No. 8 LSU and No. 15 SMU — ranked in the triple-digits in terms of turnovers luck. Oregon started the season 13-0 without the benefit of bounces. For that matter, Auburn, a team on the Also Considered list, ranked 125th in turnovers luck in a season that saw the Tigers go just 1-3 in one-score finishes. There might not have been a more what-could-have-been team in the country than Hugh Freeze’s Tigers.
Close games
One of my favorite tools in my statistical toolbox is what I call postgame win expectancy. The idea is to take all of a game’s key, predictive stats — all the things that end up feeding into my SP+ rankings — and basically toss them into the air and say, “With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time.”
Alabama‘s 40-35 loss to Vanderbilt on Oct. 5 was one of the most impactful results of the CFP race. It was also one of the least likely results of the season in terms of postgame win expectancy. Bama averaged 8.8 yards per play to Vandy’s 5.6, generated a 56% success rate* to Vandy’s 43% and scored touchdowns on all four of its trips into the red zone. It’s really hard to lose when you do all of that — in fact, the Crimson Tide’s postgame win expectancy was a whopping 98.5%. (You can see all postgame win expectancy data here)
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining at least 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth. It is one of the more reliable and predictive stats you’ll find, and it’s a big part of SP+.)
Vandy managed to overcome these stats in part because of two of the most perfect bounces you’ll ever see. In the first, Jalen Milroe had a pass batted at the line, and it deflected high into the air and, eventually, into the arms of Randon Fontenette, who caught it on the run and raced 29 yards for a touchdown and an early 13-0 lead.
In the second half, with Bama driving to potentially take the lead, Miles Capers sacked Milroe and forced a fumble; the ball sat on the ground for what felt like an eternity before Yilanan Ouattara outwrestled a Bama lineman for it. Instead of trailing, Vandy took over near midfield and scored seven plays later. It took turnovers luck and unlikely key-play execution — despite a 43% success rate, Diego Pavia and the Commodores went 12-for-18 on third down and 1-for-1 on fourth — for Vandy to turn a 1.5% postgame win expectancy into a victory. It also wasn’t Alabama’s only incredibly unlikely loss: The Tide were at 87.8% to beat Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl but fell 19-13.
(Ole Miss can feel the Tide’s pain: The Rebels were at 76.0% postgame win expectancy against Kentucky and 73.7% against Florida. There was only a 6% chance that they would lose both games, and even going 1-1 would have likely landed them a CFP bid. They lost both.)
Adding up each game’s postgame win expectancy is a nice way of seeing how many games a team should have won on average. I call this a team’s second-order win total. Alabama was at 10.7 second-order wins but went 9-4. That was one of the biggest differences of the season. Somehow, however, Iron Bowl rival Auburn was even more unfortunate.
Based solely on stats, Arkansas State should have won about four games, and Auburn should have won about eight. Instead, the Red Wolves went 8-5 and the Tigers went 5-7.
Comparing win totals to these second-order wins is one of the surest ways of identifying potential turnaround stories for the following season. In 2023, 15 teams had second-order win totals at least one game higher than their actual win totals — meaning they suffered from poor close-game fortune. Ten of those 15 teams saw their win totals increase by at least two games in 2024, including East Carolina (from 2-10 to 8-5), TCU (5-7 to 9-4), Pitt (3-9 to 7-6), Boise State (8-6 to 12-2) and Louisiana (6-7 to 10-4). On average, these 15 teams improved by 1.9 wins.
On the flip side, 19 teams overachieved their second-order win totals by at least 1.0 wins in 2023. This list includes both of 2023’s national title game participants, Washington and Michigan. The Huskies and Wolverines sank from a combined 29-1 in 2023 to 14-12 in 2024, and it could have been even worse. Michigan overachieved again, going 8-5 despite a second-order win total of 6.0. Other 2023 overachievers weren’t so lucky. Oklahoma State (from 10-4 to 3-9), Wyoming (from 9-4 to 3-9), Northwestern (from 8-5 to 4-8) and NC State (from 9-4 to 6-7) all won more games than the stats expected in 2023, and all of them crumpled to some degree in 2024. On average, the 19 overachieving teams regressed by 1.9 wins last fall.
It’s worth keeping in mind that several teams in Schlabach’s Way-Too-Early Top 25 — including No. 6 Oregon, No. 8 LSU, No. 11 Iowa State, No. 13 Illinois and, yes, No. 21 Michigan — all exceeded statistical expectations in wins last season, as did Also Considered teams like Army, Duke, Missouri and Texas Tech. The fact that Oregon and LSU overachieved while suffering from poor turnovers luck is (admittedly) rather unlikely and paints a conflicting picture.
Meanwhile, one should note that three Way-Too-Early teams — No. 12 Alabama, No. 23 Miami and No. 25 Ole Miss (plus Washington and, of course, Auburn from the Also Considered list) — all lost more games than expected last season. With just a little bit of good fortune, they could prove to be awfully underrated.
Injuries and general shuffling
Injuries are hard to define in college football — coaches are frequently canny in the information they do and do not provide, and with so many teams in FBS, it’s impossible to derive accurate data regarding how many games were missed due to injury.
We can glean quite a bit from starting lineups, however. Teams with lineups that barely changed throughout the season were probably pretty happy with their overall results, while teams with ever-changing lineups likely succumbed to lots of losses. Below, I’ve ranked teams using a simple ratio: I compared (a) the number of players who either started every game or started all but one for a given team to (b) the number of players who started only one or two games, likely as a stopgap. If you had far more of the former, your team likely avoided major injury issues and, with a couple of major exceptions, thrived. If you had more of the latter, the negative effects were probably pretty obvious.
Despite the presence of 1-11 Purdue and 2-10 Kennesaw State near the top of the list — Purdue fielded one of the worst power conference teams in recent memory and barely could blame injury for its issues — you can still see a decent correlation between a positive ratio and positive results. The six teams with a ratio of at least 2.8 or above went a combined 62-22 in 2024, while the teams with a 0.5 ratio or worse went 31-56.
Seven of nine conference champions had a ratio of at least 1.3, and 11 of the 12 CFP teams were at 1.44 or higher (five were at 2.6 or higher). Indiana, the most shocking of CFP teams, was second on the list above; epic disappointments like Oklahoma and, especially, Florida State were near the bottom. (The fact that Georgia won the SEC and reached the CFP despite a pretty terrible injury ratio speaks volumes about the depth Kirby Smart has built in Athens. Of course, the Dawgs also enjoyed solid turnovers luck.)
Major turnaround candidates
It’s fair to use this information as a reason for skepticism about teams like Indiana (turnovers luck and injuries luck), Clemson (turnovers luck), Iowa State (close-games luck), Penn State (injuries luck) or Sam Houston (all of the above, plus a coaching change), but let’s end on an optimistic note instead. Here are five teams that could pretty easily enjoy a big turnaround if Lady Luck is a little kinder.
Auburn Tigers: Auburn enjoyed a better success rate than its opponents (44.7% to 38.5%) and made more big plays as well (8.9% of plays gained 20-plus yards versus 5.7% for opponents). That makes it awfully hard to lose! But the Tigers made exactly the mistake they couldn’t make and managed to lose games with 94%, 76% and 61% postgame win expectancy. There’s nothing saying this was all bad luck, but even with a modest turnaround in fortune, the Tigers will have a very high ceiling in 2025.
Florida Gators: The Gators improved from 41st to 20th in SP+ and from 5-7 to 8-5 overall despite starting three quarterbacks and 12 different DBs and ranking 132nd on the list above. That says pretty spectacular things about their overall upside, especially considering their improved experience levels on the O-line, in the secondary and the general optimism about sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway.
Florida Atlantic Owls: Only one team ranked 111th or worse in all three of the tables above — turnovers luck (111th), second-order win difference (121st) and injury ratio (131st). You could use this information to make the case that the Owls shouldn’t have fired head coach Tom Herman, or you could simply say that new head coach Zach Kittley is pretty well-positioned to get some bounces and hit the ground running.
Florida State Seminoles: There was evidently plenty of poor fortune to go around in the Sunshine State last season, and while Mike Norvell’s Seminoles suffered an epic hangover on the field, they also didn’t get a single bounce: They were 129th in turnovers luck, 99th in second-order win difference and 110th in injury ratio. Norvell has brought in new coordinators and plenty of new players, and the Noles are almost guaranteed to jump up from 2-10. With a little luck, that jump could be a pretty big one.
Utah Utes: Along with UCF, Utah was one of only two teams to start four different quarterbacks in 2024. The Utes were also among only four teams to start at least 11 different receivers or tight ends and among five teams to start at least nine defensive linemen. If you’re looking for an easy explanation for how they fell from 65th to 96th in offensive SP+ and from 8-5 to 5-7 overall, that’s pretty succinct and telling.
You may like
Sports
Astros’ Blanco having elbow surgery, done for ’25
Published
2 hours agoon
May 28, 2025By
admin
-
ESPN News Services
May 28, 2025, 12:22 PM ET
Houston Astros right-hander Ronel Blanco will have surgery on his right elbow and will miss the remainder of the 2025 season, the team announced Wednesday.
The starter had sought a second opinion after being placed on the injured list last week with inflammation in the elbow.
The Astros said Blanco — who is 3-4 with a 4.10 ERA, 48 strikeouts and 20 walks in nine starts this season — is anticipated to return at some point during the 2026 season.
Blanco, 31, is among a long list of starting pitchers on the injured list for the Astros. Right-hander Hayden Wesneski underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery last week, while right-hander Spencer Arrighetti has been out since April after breaking his right thumb in a batting practice mishap.
Houston is also without right-handers Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier, who are both still recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Blanco is in his fourth major league season, all with the Astros. In 2024, he finished 13-6 with a 2.80 ERA in 30 games (29 starts). He threw his only career complete game in his season debut on April 1, no-hitting the Toronto Blue Jays in a 10-0 win.
The Associated Press and Field Level Media contributed to this report.
Sports
Renovated Belmont to host Breeders’ Cup in ’27
Published
3 hours agoon
May 28, 2025By
admin
-
Associated Press
May 28, 2025, 12:14 PM ET
The Breeders’ Cup world championships are returning to New York in 2027 at the rebuilt Belmont Park, following a massive renovation project to revitalize one of the most important horse racing tracks in the country.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, along with officials from the Breeders’ Cup and the New York Racing Association, announced Wednesday that the track on the edge of Queens and Nassau County on Long Island will stage the event in the fall two years from now.
“We wrote the governor of New York a letter in 2023 that simply said, ‘If you build it, we will come,'” Breeders’ Cup Limited president and CEO Drew Fleming said in a phone interview with The Associated Press. “And so we’re very honored to keep our word and have a wonderful Breeders’ Cup world championship here in 2027 to showcase the new development and investment in Belmont Park to our fans from across the globe.”
Keeneland in Lexington was revealed as the 2026 host.
Belmont Park was last home to the Breeders’ Cup in 2005, the fourth time in two decades after also being there in 1990, 1995 and 2001. A goal of the $455 million teardown and reconstruction was to attract the major event.
“It was always part of the plan: We weren’t going to redevelop Belmont Park without Breeders’ Cup in mind, so it was always part of the initial goals,” NYRA president and CEO David O’Rourke told the AP by phone. “Getting the championships back to New York is big from an economic point of view and probably one of the most important [things], if not the most important. It gives our trainers and horsemen a chance to compete on their home tracks. I think it’s great. It’s been over 20 years.”
Hochul said in a statement that the redevelopment is bringing thousands of jobs and $1 billion in long-term economic activity to Long Island.
“Thanks to the investments we are making at Belmont Park, the long held dream of bringing the prestigious Breeders’ Cup back to New York will soon be a reality,” Hochul said.
The Breeders’ Cup has been at a Kentucky or California track every year since 2008. Del Mar outside San Diego has it this year as a back-to-back host and for the fourth time since 2017.
Santa Anita outside Los Angeles, Keeneland and Churchill Downs in Louisville — home of the Kentucky Derby — have become the regular sites for the two-day festival featuring the best thoroughbreds in the world and tens of millions of dollars’ worth of races. It’s shifting back to the Eastern time zone for the next two years.
“California is and has always been a wonderful spot to have the Breeders’ Cup with Santa Anita Park and Del Mar, but one of the missions of the Breeders’ Cup is to grow the sport, and one of the ways we do this is hosting world championships at various venues across the United States,” Fleming said, adding that he expects the event to generate $100 million for the New York economy.
While NYRA has not announced a location for the 2026 Belmont Stakes, the third leg of the Triple Crown is set to return to its old home by 2027, after a multiyear stint at historic Saratoga Race Course in upstate New York during renovations.
With the Belmont at Belmont Park shifting back to an annual occurrence, it is possible the track known for greats like Secretariat and Seattle Slew rumbling down the stretch to the finish line with fans roaring might get back in a regular rotation.
“The best part about working for the Breeders’ Cup is that nothing is off the table,” Fleming said. “New York City has some of the finest accommodations and restaurants and entertainment in the world, so it’d be a natural fit that we would be at Belmont Park frequently.”
Sports
NHL free agency big board: Where does Marner land? Who are the other top options?
Published
5 hours agoon
May 28, 2025By
admin
-
Greg WyshynskiMay 28, 2025, 07:30 AM ET
Close- Greg Wyshynski is ESPN’s senior NHL writer.
NHL teams head into this offseason with an understanding of where the salary cap is climbing over the next three seasons. It’s projected to rise to $95.5 million next season; $104 million in 2026-27; and then up to $113.5 million in 2027-28.
That could lead to more teams comfortably retaining their own players on expiring contracts. Or it could lead to those players receiving inflated offers in free agency, as a rising cap means rising chaos.
Here’s a look at the unrestricted free agent field, organized into different tiers. There are also some significant restricted free agents, too — like forwards Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs), JJ Peterka (Sabres) and Marco Rossi (Wild); and defensemen Evan Bouchard (Oilers), Noah Dobson (Islanders) and K’Andre Miller (Rangers). It’s anyone’s guess if last season’s offer sheet fun was an anomaly or the new normal.
The contract terms and average annual contract values are courtesy of PuckPedia. In the case of players whose salaries were retained in transactions, we’re listing the full average annual value of their contracts.
Which players are you hoping your team signs this offseason?
The free agent who will earn the most attention this offseason.
Age: 28 | 2024-25 cap hit: $10,903,000
Marner’s noncommittal answers at Toronto’s postseason media availability did little to discourage the notion that the winger — who has played his entire nine-year career with his childhood team that drafted him fourth overall in 2015 — is done in Toronto. It might be time for a change: Blaming Marner for the franchise’s playoff failures has become an annual rite, and he’ll easily break the bank in unrestricted free agency. The lure to leave has never been stronger.
Over the past five seasons, six players have more points than Marner (450 in 357 games): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Artemi Panarin and David Pastrnak. Marner has the fewest goals scored (138) of that group, but he’s significantly better defensively than most of that lot: His 14 shorthanded points in that span tie him with Aleksander Barkov, who is currently collecting Selke Trophies like they’re Pokémon.
Marner’s points-per-game rate over the past five regular seasons is 1.26. It dips to 0.93 in the playoffs during that span. Although he has 42 points in 48 games, Marner has been called “passive” and much worse in the playoffs. Former NHL player Jordan Schmaltz said Marner bails out of physical plays in the postseason like he has “a parachute” on his back.
All of this is to say that Marner is a complicated acquisition. The skill is unquestionable. The will, when the games matter most, has been questioned annually. Who wants that on their roster, and what is it worth?
It was reported at one point that the Leafs were considering a deal for eight years and $13.5 million per season, which would have made him the team’s highest-paid player annually over Auston Matthews ($13.25 million). Mikko Rantanen, who would have been the belle of the free agent ball had he not signed with the Dallas Stars, is making $12 million annually over eight years in a state with no income tax, for context.
The Carolina Hurricanes tried to acquire Marner for Rantanen but were rebuffed by the player, who had a full no-movement clause — and a son who would be born in May, making that decision completely understandable. They’ve got the cap space, and the need, to be interested in Marner again.
Teams on the rise such as the Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks and Utah Mammoth have been mentioned for Marner — if he still wants some of that Original Six flavor, playing in the Windy City while threading passes to Connor Bedard wouldn’t hurt.
Teams that love to make their offseason splashes such as the Florida Panthers and the Vegas Golden Knights have been speculated, as have the Los Angeles Kings and New York Islanders who could look to do something big. There has even been talk about a reunion with former Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas at the Pittsburgh Penguins — heck, if the rap on Marner is that he can’t figure out playoff hockey, you could do a lot worse than having Sidney Crosby as your tutor for a couple of seasons.
All of this is assuming he leaves Toronto. While it certainly looks like that’ll happen, let’s all remember the golden rule of NHL free agency: His stuff is there.
Tier 2: The impact players
These are established players who can play key, immediate roles for a team.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $4.425 million
Bennett is essentially the anti-Marner: The majority of his value is derived from his win-at-all-costs postseason play, with the “costs” typically being the physical wellbeing of opponents. Bennett is a dependable regular-season performer, as he had 25 goals and 26 assists this season for the Panthers to go along with 90 penalty minutes.
He’s going to be paid handsomely this summer. Perhaps by someone looking to have him be the last piece of their championship puzzle; or perhaps as a Stanley Cup-winning teacher who can instruct a middling team how to take the next step.
The assumption is that someone is going to price the Panthers out of Bennett, but let’s remember two things here: He loves playing for Florida, and GM Bill Zito knows what an essential ingredient Bennett has been in their postseason success — and that Bennett comprises a dynamic duo with star Matthew Tkachuk. The two sides have engaged in contract talks during the season.
Age: 28 | 2024-25 cap hit: $6.65 million
There’s probably more interest outside of Vancouver in signing Boeser than within the Canucks organization, which has sent mixed signals about retaining him. He is one season removed from a 40-goal campaign and has eased concerns about his ability to remain in the lineup for a full season.
There’s been heavy speculation that the Burnsville, Minn., native could find his way to the Wild, but don’t count out potential suitors such as the Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $6 million
Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has done an impressive job dispelling the “no one wants to sign in Winnipeg” accusation, having gotten Mark Scheifele, Connor Hellebuyck and Neal Pionk to re-up in the past few years. Ehlers is his latest test.
“We’ll put our best foot forward with him to try to make our case to be a unique Jet-for-life-type player,” Cheveldayoff said.
A consistent point producer, Ehlers put his best foot forward toward a free agent payday with his best points per 60 minutes average (3.5) in five years. He is an offensive force — when he is in the lineup, as Ehlers has played over 70 games just once in the past four seasons, and he has missed time in the playoffs, as well.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $7.5 million
The common thinking when the Panthers acquired Seth Jones from the Blackhawks was that the team would let No. 1 defenseman Aaron Ekblad walk as a free agent. But Zito has been adamant that the team could still retain the career Panther, even with Jones adding $7 million to their blue line and with Florida having other contractual business to address (like a potential new deal for Bennett).
With options such as Jakob Chychrun having re-signed ahead of free agency (eight years, $72 million with Washington), Ekblad is easily the best big-name D-man available — and one with a Stanley Cup ring, no less. He had 33 points with an average ice time of 23:31 in 56 games this season, which was truncated by a 20-game suspension for violating the terms of the NHL/NHLPA performance-enhancing substances program.
Age: 37 | 2024-25 cap hit: $6.125 million
There’s been no better advertisement for the star winger’s value than what he has done with the Panthers after they acquired him from the Bruins. He has brought a veteran tenacity to their bottom six, while occasionally popping up to play with Aleksander Barkov. He has produced, too, with 13 points in 16 playoff games.
As coach Paul Maurice noted, the Panthers needed a player as vocal and media-friendly as Marchand to take the pressure off some of the more serene talents on the team.
If he doesn’t remain in Sunrise, there will be no shortage of teams interested in adding his winning pedigree — although salary and term will be the trick in signing him. Let’s face it: There wouldn’t be a next chapter more interesting than Marchand signing with the Maple Leafs, the team he has tormented for years — but he has recently admitted to cheering for the Leafs as a kid growing up in Halifax.
Age: 33 | 2024-25 cap hit: $6 million
Nelson was one of several players the Avalanche added in their trade deadline shopping spree that couldn’t get them past Dallas in the opening round. Nelson had six goals and seven assists in 19 games for the Avs in the regular season but went scoreless in four of their seven playoff games against Dallas.
Was the fit good enough for both that he seeks to extend in Colorado, or are there other destinations for Nelson to bring his variety of skills and get some extra contract term in the process?
Age: 34 | 2024-25 cap hit: $11 million
While Mitch Marner was noncommittal about his future in Toronto, Tavares did everything but belt out a version of “And I Am Telling You I’m Not Going” from “Dreamgirls” after their playoff elimination.
“I’ve expressed my desire to stay and wanting to make it work,” the veteran center said.
Do the Leafs bring him back at the right price point, or is Tavares another roster sacrifice made in the name of changing the mix after their playoff disappointment? One intriguing potential destination: Utah, which could use both a big-name free agent signing and a veteran presence in the middle.
Tier 3: The best bets
These players have shown they’re worth the investment.
Age: 34 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $3 million
Duchene has found a fit in Dallas, and Dallas found a fit in Duchene. He was one of the best value signings last offseason, inking a one-year extension worth $3 million before tallying 82 points in 82 games, his best offensive season since 2021-22 with Nashville. His playoff output through 16 games was less exceptional with just one goal and five assists.
Given the lack of unrestricted free agent veteran scorers with his credentials, there could be temptation to check how green the grass is elsewhere. But it’s possible Duchene is following that late-career path of other veterans: Taking a series of one-year deals to remain with a team he likes.
Age: 29 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5.875 million
Gavrikov just completed a two-year deal that he signed with general manager Rob Blake in 2023. The wrinkle here: Blake is no longer the GM, with Ken Holland now at the helm in Los Angeles.
Gavrikov had a strong defensive season with the Kings and chipped in 30 points (five goals, 25 assists), which was the second-highest total of his six-season career. He was solid when paired with either Mikey Anderson or Jordan Spence.
All of this it say that the Kings should seek to retain Gavrikov. But if his new deal is too rich for what Holland wants to do with the rest of this roster, other teams will gladly add him to their blue line.
Age: 37 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $6.5 million
Barring something unforeseen, Giroux should extend his relationship with the Senators before free agency hits. He had 50 points in 81 games this past season, his third with Ottawa, which made the playoffs for the first time in eight seasons.
There’s no reason to believe he won’t still be a Senator next season, but if he shakes loose, he has enough offensive pop left to help someone.
Age: 33 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5,166,666
He was coveted at the trade deadline as a quintessential checking center with Stanley Cup championship experience. Gourde ended up going back to the Lightning from the Seattle Kraken, for whom he tallied 14 points in 21 games but was a nonfactor in five playoff games.
GM Julien BriseBois has said the team acquired Gourde with the idea of keeping him beyond this season. But as Steven Stamkos will attest, that usually means it’ll happen based on the Lightning’s economics, which might not sync with Gourde’s.
Age: 33 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5 million
One of several great moves made by Stars GM Jim Nill this season, Granlund was rescued from last place San Jose, for which he posted 45 points in 52 games. Granlund had 21 points in 31 games for Dallas then nine in 16 playoff games while skating on the “Finnish Mafia” line with Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz.
Someone is probably going to overpay for Granlund, whose uptick in goal scoring has coincided with pending free agency. But he has produced points wherever he has played (Pittsburgh excluded).
Age: 34 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5 million
Palmieri offers new Islanders general manager Mathieu Darche one of his first challenges. It’s clear that former GM Lou Lamoriello wanted to extend the winger, hanging on to him at the trade deadline. There’s virtue to that: Palmieri registered 30 goals and 24 goals over the past two seasons, and offense isn’t exactly in abundance on the Islanders’ roster.
That said, it’s high time for New York to turn over the roster Lamoriello built to diminishing returns, and Palmieri has been there since 2021.
Age: 28 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $6.75 million
Provorov is a good skater who can play on the power play and the penalty kill while munching considerable minutes (23:21 per game). He’s a very solid puck mover who has elite puck-retrieval skills. If the Blue Jackets retain him, he can be the veteran anchor for their second pairing behind Zach Werenski.
They hung onto him at the trade deadline, and general manager Don Waddell said he wants to sign him this summer. If Provorov hits the open market, he won’t be the only GM with that aim.
Tier 4: The best values
Under-the-radar gems, analytics darlings and difference-makers with low-cost contracts.
Age: 27 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.25 million
This isn’t the first time Beauvillier has been in this tier, but his season with the Penguins and the Capitals underscored how valuable he can be on a budget contract, especially his six points in 10 playoff games with the Caps in their brief playoff run.
Strong underlying numbers, good output and still only 27 until next month.
Age: 31 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1 million
If it wasn’t for that other Connor stealing all the attention in Edmonton, perhaps more people would have appreciated the regular season Connor Brown had for the Oilers — 13 goals and 17 assists in 82 games, skating to a plus-9 in 14:01 of average ice time per game — on a steal of a contract.
It took his playoff outburst — five goals and three assists through 14 games — to really grab some attention:
A hard-working, pace-setting player.
Age: 36 | 2024-25 cap hit: $2.25 million
“Daddy” had an impressive walk year with 20 goals and 20 assists in 80 games. He saw similar averages in the first year of his two-year deal with Dallas. He is never getting back to the offensive numbers he posted in his prime, but at the right average annual value, Dadonov can be an offensive strength in the regular season.
Age: 33 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.15 million
The former Anaheim Duck was a trade-deadline pickup for New Jersey who was pressed into more service than expected due to injuries to the Devils’ defensive corps in the playoffs. In their five-game series against Carolina, Dumoulin averaged 29:21 per game in ice time, skating over 36 minutes in two overtime games and playing well in the process.
The two-time Cup winner with Pittsburgh still can bring it in the postseason.
Age: 26 | 2024-25 cap hit: $2.5 million
Yes, that’s Dante Fabbro of the Why on earth did the Nashville Predators put Dante Fabbro on waivers last season? fame. The Preds’ loss and the Jackets’ gain, as Fabbro had 26 points in 62 games, skating to a plus-23 with Columbus as Zach Werenski‘s partner.
The underlying numbers reaffirm he was great on both ends of the ice. Obviously, a lot of that is playing with a Norris Trophy finalist, but Fabbro earned his time with Werenski.
Age: 31 | 2024-25 cap hit: $2.75 million
The former Boston Bruins defenseman had a quietly strong season for the Penguins with one goal but 39 assists — 24 of them at even strength. Defense was never his calling card, but offensively, he was solid in traditional stats and analytics.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.075 million
Wait, a former Buffalo Sabres forward being acquired by the Golden Knights and finding his game again? Never seen that before …
Anyway, Olofsson had 15 goals and 14 assists on a bargain-basement “show me” contract. He has demonstrated in the past that, when healthy, he has a ton of offensive upside.
Age: 34/2024-25 cap hit $5 million
There’s a reason the Golden Knights ran it back with Smith at the trade deadline. He is a perfectively serviceable depth forward who is going to produce decently on offense and can contribute on both special teams.
He is fine if cast in the right role — that is, not a top-line winger — as the Rangers discovered.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.6 million
Suter is teetering on the brink of a potential overpay, after setting career highs in goals (25) and points (46) in a contract year with the Canucks. But his goal production has been steady in limited roles throughout his career, and he does enough away from the puck — according to the analytics — that even a dip in last season’s numbers won’t make a multiplier on his cap hit regrettable.
Tier 5: The boom-or-busts
Players who have the ability to justify the investment or whose contracts could eventually become an eyesore on PuckPedia.
Age: 35 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $9.5 million
Benn signed his eight-year contract in July 2016, but it somehow feels much longer ago than that. Perhaps because of his 16-year tenure with Dallas; when Benn was a rookie, Mike Modano was still on the Stars. But also because this contract was a topic of debate from the moment it was signed.
While Benn’s most productive offensive days are behind him, he has still managed 49 points in 80 games this season in a limited role; he has been under 16 minutes in average ice time for the past three seasons.
GM Nill said Benn will be a Dallas Star for life, but the two decided to have this season play out before talking extension. Benn’s value is in his leadership, physicality and intangibles. But Dallas or whichever team signs him needs to tread lightly in AAV and term here.
Age: 40 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $8 million
The beard, the ranch, the mysterious bag filled with mysterious items. There are few NHL players who have inspired the kind of lore that Brent Burns has. He also used to inspire a lot of offense, but that production has fallen off steeply over the past two seasons — from 61 points to 43 points to 29 points in 82 games this season, the lowest average of points per 60 minutes of his career.
Is this run the end of the line for Burns? He hasn’t said. But there’s always going to be a market for a puck-moving defenseman in the NHL who can log 20 minutes per game.
Age: 29 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $2 million
Donato had an all-timer walk-year bump this past season, setting new career highs in goals (31) and assists (31) in 80 games with the Blackhawks. He was talking to Chicago about a new deal around the trade deadline, and the Hawks opted not to move him. That’s an indication they see him as part of their group moving forward. Having chemistry with Connor Bedard probably doesn’t hurt.
The questions now: How does one quantify that in a contract? And can Donato repeat the feat in a noncontract year?
Age: 30 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $2.5 million
Drouin recaptured his offensive game with Colorado, which acquired him with the encouragement of his junior hockey teammate Nathan MacKinnon. It was a heartwarming story. Less so was the fact that, once again, the injury bug munched on him this past season.
He had 37 points in 43 games, showing that when he’s in the lineup he can be effective. Operative phrase: when he’s in the lineup.
Age: 36 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $4 million
We almost put “Showtime” in the “best bets” category given how he outperformed his incentive-laden, one-year contract with Detroit last season by tallying 21 goals and 38 points in 72 games. He played well with longtime linemate Alex DeBrincat and responded well when Detroit hired Todd McLellan to take over as coach.
The issue with Kane is on the other side of the puck, where he was analytically the weakest defensive forward on the Red Wings.
Age: 29 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5.5 million
Kuzmenko fit really nicely with the Kings after they acquired him from the Flyers. He seemed to be the player Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe had been waiting for to join their line. Assuming new GM Ken Holland sees it the same way, it’s going to be intriguing to find out how that is valued in regard to AAV and term.
If Holland doesn’t, then Kuzmenko will be onto a fifth team in three seasons, tantalized by his offensive pop and power-play prowess.
Age: 27 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $4.5 million
The Rangers traded the 27-year-old to the Avalanche at the trade deadline. He’s a solid defensive defenseman who could complement a puck-moving partner, like he did in New York with Adam Fox.
But at this point in Lindgren’s NHL career, it’s practically predestined that he is going to either play through injuries or miss some time because of them.
Age: 33 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $7.75 million
Orlov surprised many the last time he was a free agent by signing a short-term, high-AAV contract with the Hurricanes. He had a slight uptick in offensive production this season but remained just above replacement level as a defender. Orlov has been especially rough in his own end in the playoffs.
While the Canes could let him walk, there’s likely value in keeping Orlov around as a partner and mentor to rookie Alexander Nikishin, who looks like something special.
Age: 33 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $3 million
What was expected to be one of the best value signings in the NHL last offseason never really worked out that way for Skinner and Edmonton. He had 16 goals and 13 assists in 72 games, skating just 12:60 on average. He did appear in one playoff game against the Kings, his first postseason action of his 15-year career.
Skinner is two seasons removed from a 35-goal campaign with Buffalo.
Age: 37 | 2022-23 cap hit: $10.5 million
We know what kind of player Toews was for the Blackhawks: a Selke Trophy-winning captain who won three Stanley Cups and a Conn Smythe, one who was still putting up numbers (31 points in 53 games) deep into the Chicago rebuild.
But we don’t know what kind of player he is now, having last appeared in a game back in April 2023 before stepping away from the NHL for health considerations and personal growth.
Toews has expressed an interest in coming back to play again. That has led to speculation about a comeback with everyone from his hometown Winnipeg Jets to the championship-starved Maple Leafs to the Oilers, for whom his old GM Stan Bowman now works.
Tier 6: The goalies
The few, the proud, the available goaltenders
Age: 34 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.85 million
Allen outplayed Jacob Markstrom in the regular season, with a higher save percentage (.908), more goals saved above expected (8.75) and just as many shutouts (four). The Devils like their goaltending, and GM Tom Fitzgerald has discussed negotiating to bring Allen back. But given the other options on the free agent goaltending market, someone might go higher than the Devils are willing to go.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.4 million
The former starter for the Colorado Avalanche, Georgiev was sent to the Sharks in the Mackenzie Blackwood trade. Things weren’t all the better for him there, as Georgiev had minus-13.7 goals saved above expected in 31 games for San Jose.
GM Mike Grier already told the goaltender he won’t be back with the Sharks next season.
Age: 32 | 2024-25 cap hit: $900,000
One of five goalies the Wings used this season, Lyon played 30 games for Detroit with an .896 save percentage and a 14-9-1 record. He was just under average in goals saved above expected at minus-1.63.
Age: 28 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.8 million
Signed in a cost-effective deal as a backup to Adin Hill, Samsonov had a second straight season with a sub-.900 save percentage, along with a minus-7.85 goals saved above expected.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.4 million
A former starter with the Devils, Vanecek split time between the Sharks and Panthers this season, and he wasn’t particularly great for either of them.
Age: 27 | 2024-25 cap hit: $2.2 million
Dustin Wolf‘s incredible rookie season was supported by 30 games of perfectly average goaltending from Vladar, who remains a reliable tandem goalie if not much more.
Tier 7: The spackle
The other free agents available who don’t neatly fall into these tiers.
Mason Appleton, C, Winnipeg Jets
Cam Atkinson, RW, Tampa Bay Lightning
Joel Armia, LW/RW, Montreal Canadiens
Nathan Bastian, RW, New Jersey Devils
Nick Bjugstad, C, Utah Mammoth
Justin Brazeau, RW, Minnesota Wild
Cody Ceci, D, Dallas Stars
Tony DeAngelo, D, New York Islanders
Calvin de Haan, D, New York Rangers
Christian Dvorak, C, Montreal Canadiens
Lars Eller, C, Washington Capitals
Robby Fabbri, F, Anaheim Ducks
Radek Faksa, C, St. Louis Blues
Anton Forsberg, G, Ottawa Senators
Trent Frederic, C, Edmonton Oilers
Adam Gaudette, RW, Ottawa Senators
Tanner Jeannot, F, Los Angeles Kings
Kasperi Kapanen, RW, Edmonton Oilers
John Klingberg, D, Edmonton Oilers
Luke Kunin, F, Columbus Blue Jackets
Sean Kuraly, C, Columbus Blue Jackets
Oliver Kylington, D, Anaheim Ducks
Andrew Mangiapane, F, Washington Capitals
Anthony Mantha, RW, Calgary Flames
Brock McGinn, LW, Anaheim Ducks
Gustav Nyquist, RW, Minnesota Wild
Max Pacioretty, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs
Nick Perbix, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
Corey Perry, RW, Edmonton Oilers
Jeff Petry, D, Detroit Red Wings
Taylor Raddysh, D, Washington Capitals
Jack Roslovic, F, Carolina Hurricanes
Jan Rutta, D, San Jose Sharks
Brandon Saad, LW, Vegas Golden Knights
Nate Schmidt, D, Florida Panthers
Brendan Smith, D, Dallas Stars
Nico Sturm, C, Florida Panthers
Brandon Tanev, LW, Winnipeg Jets
James van Riemsdyk, LW, Columbus Blue Jackets
Trending
-
Sports3 years ago
‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year ago
Story injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years ago
Game 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years ago
MLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years ago
Japan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years ago
Game-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business3 years ago
Bank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway