Reform has put the two traditional parties on notice – and we don’t know where this ends
British politics is changing after a night that saw a sensational, record-breaking victory by Nigel Farage in the North West.
That’s the conclusion of a nail-biting night that delivered more drama than expected and gives strong indications – though not yet certainty – about how politics is being reshaped for a new era, which means greater political unpredictability and challenges for the main parties in highly uncomfortable ways.
The significance of this morning’s results will be argued over for years to come.
Reform beats Labour by six votes; follow Politics latest
Hours after counting began, there are two big themes for definite.
The first is that Reform UK proved they continue to evolve into a mature and potentially lethal political force.
Across the country they are now winning votes in Labour areas as well as Conservative, and they have run both parties close in a number of key contests.
They achieved vote shares of 40% or more, twice their share at the General Election. They even won a seat from the Liberal Democrats.
Read more:
Mayoral election results as they come in
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First Reform UK mayoral win
The second is that while Labour was able to deliver a number of physiologically important mayoral wins – often by the smallest of margins – they need to go up a gear to fight.
Labour’s vote declined but did not collapse and they are still able to get “their people” to the ballot box from Bristol to Tyneside.
But in the most important battle of all – the North West seat of Runcorn and Helsby – they could not, and Reform UK pulled off a stunning triumph, taking the 49th-safest Labour seat in the country.
Karen Shore, Labour’s losing candidate in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election. Pic: PA
Nigel Farage and the team had poured huge amounts of time and resource into the seat, with multiple visits and the chairman Zia Yusuf on the ground to direct operations. It paid off.
By contrast, Sir Keir Starmer did not turn up once. Number 10 will be asking itself today whether a prime ministerial visit could have been worth those six precious votes.
It is true to say that politics has become so unpredictable because neither party knew what was about to happen.
The evening started with Reform UK hinting at victory, but by 2am Labour was quietly confident. By 3am, it had turned out neither really knew, and a full recount was launched after Reform UK was four votes ahead. After the recount, Labour had lost by six.
This is the moment Reform UK proved itself a protest party for Labour voters as well as Tories.
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‘Keir is making life easy’ for Reform
Significance for Reform is immense
The significance is immense. At last year’s general election, there were over 150 seats where the Tories lost because Reform UK got more votes than the margin by which the Conservatives lost to the winner.
Now this suggests that Reform UK has the capacity to mete out the same damage to Labour and puts the two traditional parties on notice that they face a threat.
Labour has already shown itself willing to bend because of the threat of Reform UK, slashing the aid budget to pay for more military spending and slashing Whitehall with a promise of more to come.
The question is, how much further can Labour go in this direction? In some of the council by-elections there was already evidence of bleeding to the Greens – a sign that more left-leaning one-time Labour supporters are deserting the party because they think it no longer represents them.
What course does this Number 10 chart now? A slew of announcements on immigration and slashing red tape – and risk a greater schism on the left – or end up in the mushy middle and pleasing no one? The choices are unappetising.
Robert Jenrick featured in a leaked recording about a Tory ‘coalition’ with Reform UK
Then there is the challenge for the Tories.
For those hoping for a non-aggression pact on the right, today’s results suggest that Reform UK can credibly question whether they are a party of the right, given their success in Labour areas.
This is a complicating factor. Where does the logic heard in the leaked recording by Robert Jenrick – brought up by Nigel Farage this morning – take us now?
There will be those who point to UKIP’s success in the early 2010s and lack of impact in the 2015 election, and say that there is no certainty that Reform UK will fly.
Of course, there is a chance they may fade, particularly if their infighting gets worse.
But UKIP never achieved a breakthrough on the left like Reform UK has done to date, and its impact may never actually be in the seats that it wins.
Arguably in that early 2010 period, Farage and UKIP left an even bigger legacy without ever holding power: a Brexit referendum which he went on to win.
There are now lots of paths for what Farage has started to change Britain. We do not know where this ends.
The UK-US trade deal has been signed and is “done”, US President Donald Trump has said as he met Sir Keir Starmer at the G7 summit.
The US president told reporters in Canada: “We signed it, and it’s done. It’s a fair deal for both. It’ll produce a lot of jobs, a lot of income.”
Sir Keir said the document “implements” the deal to cut tariffs on cars and aerospace, describing it as a “really important agreement”.
“So this is a very good day for both of our countries – a real sign of strength,” the prime minister added.
Mr Trump added that the UK was “very well protected” against any future tariffs, saying: “You know why? Because I like them”.
However, he did not say whether levies on British steel exports to the US would be set to 0%, saying “we’re gonna let you have that information in a little while”.
Mr Trump also praised Sir Keir as a “great” prime minister, adding: “We’ve been talking about this deal for six years, and he’s done what they haven’t been able to do.”
He added: “We’re very longtime partners and allies and friends and we’ve become friends in a short period of time.
“He’s slightly more liberal than me to put it mildly… but we get along.”
Sir Keir added that “we make it work”.
As the pair exited a mountain lodge in the Canadian Rockies where the summit is being held, Mr Trump held up a physical copy of the trade agreement to show reporters.
Several leaves of paper fell from the binding, and Sir Keir quickly stooped to pick them up, saying: “A very important document.”
Sir Keir Starmer picks up paper from the UK-US trade deal after Donald Trump dropped it at the G7 summit. Pic: Reuters
The US president also appeared to mistakenly refer to a “trade agreement with the European Union” at one point as he stood alongside the British prime minister.
Mr Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on countries in April. At the time, he announced 10% “reciprocal” rates on all UK exports – as well as separately announced 25% levies on cars and steel.
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In a joint televised phone call in May, Sir Keir and Mr Trump announced the UK and US had agreed on a trade deal – but added the details were being finalised.
Ahead of the G7 summit, the prime minister said he would meet Mr Trump for “one-on-one” talks, and added the agreement “really matters for the vital sectors that are safeguarded under our deal, and we’ve got to implement that”.
Whitehall officials tried to convince Michael Gove to go to court to cover up the grooming scandal in 2011, Sky News can reveal.
Dominic Cummings, who was working for Lord Gove at the time, has told Sky News that officials in the Department for Education (DfE) wanted to help efforts by Rotherham Council to stop a national newspaper from exposing the scandal.
In an interview with Sky News, Mr Cummings said that officials wanted a “total cover-up”.
Politics latest: Grooming gangs findings unveiled
The revelation shines a light on the institutional reluctance of some key officials in central government to publicly highlight the grooming gang scandal.
In 2011, Rotherham Council approached the Department for Education asking for help following inquiries by The Times. The paper’s then chief reporter, the late Andrew Norfolk, was asking about sexual abuse and trafficking of children in Rotherham.
The council went to Lord Gove’s Department for Education for help. Officials considered the request and then recommended to Lord Gove’s office that the minister back a judicial review which might, if successful, stop The Times publishing the story.
Lord Gove rejected the request on the advice of Mr Cummings. Sources have independently confirmed Mr Cummings’ account.
Education Secretary Michael Gove in 2011. Pic: PA
Mr Cummings told Sky News: “Officials came to me in the Department of Education and said: ‘There’s this Times journalist who wants to write the story about these gangs. The local authority wants to judicially review it and stop The Times publishing the story’.
“So I went to Michael Gove and said: ‘This council is trying to actually stop this and they’re going to use judicial review. You should tell the council that far from siding with the council to stop The Times you will write to the judge and hand over a whole bunch of documents and actually blow up the council’s JR (judicial review).’
“Some officials wanted a total cover-up and were on the side of the council…
“They wanted to help the local council do the cover-up and stop The Times’ reporting, but other officials, including in the DfE private office, said this is completely outrageous and we should blow it up. Gove did, the judicial review got blown up, Norfolk stories ran.”
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Grooming gangs victim speaks out
The judicial review wanted by officials would have asked a judge to decide about the lawfulness of The Times’ publication plans and the consequences that would flow from this information entering the public domain.
A second source told Sky News that the advice from officials was to side with Rotherham Council and its attempts to stop publication of details it did not want in the public domain.
One of the motivations cited for stopping publication would be to prevent the identities of abused children entering the public domain.
There was also a fear that publication could set back the existing attempts to halt the scandal, although incidents of abuse continued for many years after these cases.
Sources suggested that there is also a natural risk aversion amongst officials to publicity of this sort.
Read more on grooming gangs:
What we do and don’t know from the data
A timeline of the scandal
Mr Cummings, who ran the Vote Leave Brexit campaign and was Boris Johnson’s right-hand man in Downing Street, has long pushed for a national inquiry into grooming gangs to expose failures at the heart of government.
He said the inquiry, announced today, “will be a total s**tshow for Whitehall because it will reveal how much Whitehall worked to try and cover up the whole thing.”
He also described Mr Johnson, with whom he has a long-standing animus, as a “moron’ for saying that money spent on inquiries into historic child sexual abuse had been “spaffed up the wall”.
Asked by Sky News political correspondent Liz Bates why he had not pushed for a public inquiry himself when he worked in Number 10 in 2019-20, Mr Cummings said Brexit and then COVID had taken precedence.
“There are a million things that I wanted to do but in 2019 we were dealing with the constitutional crisis,” he said.
The Department for Education and Rotherham Council have been approached for comment.
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