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British politics is changing after a night that saw a sensational, record-breaking victory by Nigel Farage in the North West.

That’s the conclusion of a nail-biting night that delivered more drama than expected and gives strong indications – though not yet certainty – about how politics is being reshaped for a new era, which means greater political unpredictability and challenges for the main parties in highly uncomfortable ways.

The significance of this morning’s results will be argued over for years to come.

Reform beats Labour by six votes; follow Politics latest

Hours after counting began, there are two big themes for definite.

The first is that Reform UK proved they continue to evolve into a mature and potentially lethal political force.

Across the country they are now winning votes in Labour areas as well as Conservative, and they have run both parties close in a number of key contests.

They achieved vote shares of 40% or more, twice their share at the General Election. They even won a seat from the Liberal Democrats.

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Mayoral election results as they come in

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First Reform UK mayoral win

The second is that while Labour was able to deliver a number of physiologically important mayoral wins – often by the smallest of margins – they need to go up a gear to fight.

Labour’s vote declined but did not collapse and they are still able to get “their people” to the ballot box from Bristol to Tyneside.

But in the most important battle of all – the North West seat of Runcorn and Helsby – they could not, and Reform UK pulled off a stunning triumph, taking the 49th-safest Labour seat in the country.

Labour party candidate Karen Shore arrives ahead of the result of the Runcorn and Helsby by-election.
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Karen Shore, Labour’s losing candidate in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election. Pic: PA

Nigel Farage and the team had poured huge amounts of time and resource into the seat, with multiple visits and the chairman Zia Yusuf on the ground to direct operations. It paid off.

By contrast, Sir Keir Starmer did not turn up once. Number 10 will be asking itself today whether a prime ministerial visit could have been worth those six precious votes.

It is true to say that politics has become so unpredictable because neither party knew what was about to happen.

The evening started with Reform UK hinting at victory, but by 2am Labour was quietly confident. By 3am, it had turned out neither really knew, and a full recount was launched after Reform UK was four votes ahead. After the recount, Labour had lost by six.

This is the moment Reform UK proved itself a protest party for Labour voters as well as Tories.

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‘Keir is making life easy’ for Reform

Significance for Reform is immense

The significance is immense. At last year’s general election, there were over 150 seats where the Tories lost because Reform UK got more votes than the margin by which the Conservatives lost to the winner.

Now this suggests that Reform UK has the capacity to mete out the same damage to Labour and puts the two traditional parties on notice that they face a threat.

Labour has already shown itself willing to bend because of the threat of Reform UK, slashing the aid budget to pay for more military spending and slashing Whitehall with a promise of more to come.

The question is, how much further can Labour go in this direction? In some of the council by-elections there was already evidence of bleeding to the Greens – a sign that more left-leaning one-time Labour supporters are deserting the party because they think it no longer represents them.

What course does this Number 10 chart now? A slew of announcements on immigration and slashing red tape – and risk a greater schism on the left – or end up in the mushy middle and pleasing no one? The choices are unappetising.

Jenrick's leaked recording on 'coalition' with Reform UK
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Robert Jenrick featured in a leaked recording about a Tory ‘coalition’ with Reform UK

Then there is the challenge for the Tories.

For those hoping for a non-aggression pact on the right, today’s results suggest that Reform UK can credibly question whether they are a party of the right, given their success in Labour areas.

This is a complicating factor. Where does the logic heard in the leaked recording by Robert Jenrick – brought up by Nigel Farage this morning – take us now?

There will be those who point to UKIP’s success in the early 2010s and lack of impact in the 2015 election, and say that there is no certainty that Reform UK will fly.

Of course, there is a chance they may fade, particularly if their infighting gets worse.

But UKIP never achieved a breakthrough on the left like Reform UK has done to date, and its impact may never actually be in the seats that it wins.

Arguably in that early 2010 period, Farage and UKIP left an even bigger legacy without ever holding power: a Brexit referendum which he went on to win.

There are now lots of paths for what Farage has started to change Britain. We do not know where this ends.

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UK and France have ‘shared responsibility’ to tackle illegal migration, Emmanuel Macron says

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UK and France have 'shared responsibility' to tackle illegal migration, Emmanuel Macron says

Emmanuel Macron has said the UK and France have a “shared responsibility” to tackle the “burden” of illegal migration, as he urged co-operation between London and Paris ahead of a crunch summit later this week.

Addressing parliament in the Palace of Westminster on Tuesday, the French president said the UK-France summit would bring “cooperation and tangible results” regarding the small boats crisis in the Channel.

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King Charles III at the State Banquet for President of France Emmanuel Macron. Pic: PA
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King Charles III at the State Banquet for President of France Emmanuel Macron. Pic: PA

Mr Macron – who is the first European leader to make a state visit to the UK since Brexit – told the audience that while migrants’ “hope for a better life elsewhere is legitimate”, “we cannot allow our countries’ rules for taking in people to be flouted and criminal networks to cynically exploit the hopes of so many individuals with so little respect for human life”.

“France and the UK have a shared responsibility to address irregular migration with humanity, solidarity and fairness,” he added.

Looking ahead to the UK-France summit on Thursday, he promised the “best ever cooperation” between France and the UK “to fix today what is a burden for our two countries”.

Sir Keir Starmer will hope to reach a deal with his French counterpart on a “one in, one out” migrant returns deal at the key summit on Thursday.

King Charles also addressed the delegations at a state banquet in Windsor Castle on Tuesday evening, saying the summit would “deepen our alliance and broaden our partnerships still further”.

King Charles speaking at state banquet welcoming Macron.
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King Charles speaking at state banquet welcoming Macron.

Sitting next to President Macron, the monarch said: “Our armed forces will cooperate even more closely across the world, including to support Ukraine as we join together in leading a coalition of the willing in defence of liberty and freedom from oppression. In other words, in defence of our shared values.”

In April, British officials confirmed a pilot scheme was being considered to deport migrants who cross the English Channel in exchange for the UK accepting asylum seekers in France with legitimate claims.

The two countries have engaged in talks about a one-for-one swap, enabling undocumented asylum seekers who have reached the UK by small boat to be returned to France.

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Britain would then receive migrants from France who would have a right to be in the UK, like those who already have family settled here.

The small boats crisis is a pressing issue for the prime minister, given that more than 20,000 migrants crossed the English Channel to the UK in the first six months of this year – a rise of almost 50% on the number crossing in 2024.

France's President Emmanuel Macron speaks at the Palace of Westminster during a state visit to the UK
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President Macron greets Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle at his address to parliament in Westminster.

Elsewhere in his speech, the French president addressed Brexit, and said the UK could not “stay on the sidelines” despite its departure from the European Union.

He said European countries had to break away from economic dependence on the US and China.

Read more:
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“Our two countries are among the oldest sovereign nations in Europe, and sovereignty means a lot to both of us, and everything I referred to was about sovereignty, deciding for ourselves, choosing our technologies, our economy, deciding our diplomacy, and deciding the content we want to share and the ideas we want to share, and the controversies we want to share.

“Even though it is not part of the European Union, the United Kingdom cannot stay on the sidelines because defence and security, competitiveness, democracy – the very core of our identity – are connected across Europe as a continent.”

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In pictures: Princess of Wales, Elton John and Mick Jagger at King’s state banquet for Macron

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In pictures: Princess of Wales, Elton John and Mick Jagger at King's state banquet for Macron

The Princess of Wales and celebrities attended the King’s star-studded state banquet on Tuesday, where Emmanuel Macron paid tribute to the late Queen Elizabeth II.

On the first day of Mr Macron’s state visit, King Charles gave a toast in French and said the three-day trip was another chance to “celebrate a deep and enduring friendship”.

“What’s possibly the most remarkable thing is the way in which the speciality of one country is part of the story of the other,” the monarch said.

“For centuries, our citizens have admired one another. We’ve made each other laugh, and we’ve imitated one another.”

The Prince and Princess of Wales at the State Banquet for President of France Emmanuel Macron. Pic: PA
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The Prince and Princess of Wales at the State Banquet. Pic: PA

The banquet hall at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA
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The banquet hall at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA

The King makes a speech at a banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA
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The King makes a speech at a banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA

King Charles looks at Emmanuel Macron at a state banquet at Windsor Castle
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King Charles looks at Emmanuel Macron at a state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA

After the King’s speech, Mr Macron told him France had a “real affection for your mother” Queen Elizabeth II, adding he believed the feeling was “reciprocal”.

“She was your queen,” he said. “To us, she was the Queen.”

He capped off his speech – which repeated his calls for closer relations that he made earlier in the Palace of Westminster – by saying: “In honour of the United Kingdom, of this entente amico that unites our two fraternal peoples in an unwavering alliance.

“Long live the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland! Long live France!”

Emmanuel Macron gives a speech at a state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA
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Emmanuel Macron gives a speech at a state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA

The Princess of Wales also made her first appearance at a state banquet in almost two years, sitting next to the French president.

She last made an appearance at a grand royal dinner in November 2023 in honour of the South Korean president. It comes after she opened up about her “rollercoaster” cancer recovery last week.

Emmanuel Macron and Kate, the Princess of Wales, share a toast. Pic: PA
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Emmanuel Macron and Kate, the Princess of Wales, share a toast. Pic: PA

Also in attendance were Sir Mick Jagger, frontman of The Rolling Stones, who was joined by his fiancee Melanie Hamrick, and Sir Elton John, who was accompanied by his husband David Furnish.

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Mick Jagger taking his seat at the state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA
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Mick Jagger taking his seat at the state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA

Elton John and David Furnish at the state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA SQUARE
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Elton John and David Furnish at the state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA

Meanwhile, it was announced that the Bayeux Tapestry, depicting the Norman conquest of England, will return to the UK for the first time in more than 900 years, and will feature in an exhibition from September 2026 to July 2027.

Mr Macron joked ahead of the state banquet that negotiations to bring the 11th-century artwork back to the UK took longer “than all the Brexit tests”. Talks on a loan had started as early as 2018.

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At least 13 people may have taken their own lives linked to Post Office scandal, public inquiry finds

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At least 13 people may have taken their own lives linked to Post Office scandal, public inquiry finds

At least 13 people may have taken their own lives after being accused of wrongdoing based on evidence from the Horizon IT system that the Post Office and developers Fujitsu knew could be false, the public inquiry has found.

A further 59 people told the inquiry they considered ending their lives, 10 of whom tried on at least one occasion, while other postmasters and family members recount suffering from alcoholism and mental health disorders including anorexia and depression, family breakup, divorce, bankruptcy and personal abuse.

Follow latest on public inquiry into Post Office scandal

Writing in the first volume of the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry report, chairman Sir Wyn Williams concludes that this enormous personal toll came despite senior employees at the Post Office knowing the Horizon IT system could produce accounts “which were illusory rather than real” even before it was rolled out to branches.

Sir Wyn said: “I am satisfied from the evidence that I have heard that a number of senior, and not so senior, employees of the Post Office knew or, at the very least, should have known that Legacy Horizon was capable of error… Yet, for all practical purposes, throughout the lifetime of Legacy Horizon, the Post Office maintained the fiction that its data was always accurate.”

Referring to the updated version of Horizon, known as Horizon Online, which also had “bugs errors and defects” that could create illusory accounts, he said: “I am satisfied that a number of employees of Fujitsu and the Post Office knew that this was so.”

The first volume of the report focuses on what Sir Wyn calls the “disastrous” impact of false accusations made against at least 1,000 postmasters, and the various redress schemes the Post Office and government has established since miscarriages of justice were identified and proven.

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‘It stole a lot from me’

Recommendations regarding the conduct of senior management of the Post Office, Fujitsu and ministers will come in a subsequent report, but Sir Wyn is clear that unjust and flawed prosecutions were knowingly pursued.

“All of these people are properly to be regarded as victims of wholly unacceptable behaviour perpetrated by a number of individuals employed by and/or associated with the Post Office and Fujitsu from time to time and by the Post Office and Fujitsu as institutions,” he says.

What are the inquiry’s recommendations?

Calling for urgent action from government and the Post Office to ensure “full and fair compensation”, he makes 19 recommendations including:

• Government and the Post Office to agree a definition of “full and fair” compensation to be used when agreeing payouts
• Ending “unnecessarily adversarial attitude” to initial offers that have depressed the value of payouts, ⁠and ensuring consistency across all four compensation schemes
• The creation of a standing body to administer financial redress to people wronged by public bodies
• Compensation to be extended to close family members of those affected who have suffered “serious negative consequences”
• The Post Office, Fujitsu and government agreeing a programme for “restorative justice”, a process that brings together those that have suffered harm with those that have caused it

Regarding the human impact of the Post Office’s pursuit of postmasters, including its use of unique powers of prosecution, Sir Wyn writes: “I do not think it is easy to exaggerate the trauma which persons are likely to suffer when they are the subject of criminal investigation, prosecution, conviction and sentence.”

He says that even the process of being interviewed under caution by Post Office investigators “will have been troubling at best and harrowing at worst”.

Read more:
Post Office inquiry lays bare heart-breaking legacy – analysis

‘Hostile and abusive behaviour’

The report finds that those wrongfully convicted were “subject to hostile and abusive behaviour” in their local communities, felt shame and embarrassment, with some feeling forced to move.

Detailing the impact on close family members of those prosecuted, Sir Wyn writes: “Wives, husbands, children and parents endured very significant suffering in the form of distress, worry and disruption to home life, in employment and education.

“In a number of cases, relationships with spouses broke down and ended in divorce or separation.

“In the most egregious cases, family members themselves suffered psychiatric illnesses or psychological problems and very significant financial losses… their suffering has been acute.”

The report includes 17 case studies of those affected by the scandal including some who have never spoken publicly before. They include Millie Castleton, daughter of Lee Castleton, one of the first postmasters prosecuted.

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Three things you need to know about Post Office report

She told the inquiry how her family being “branded thieves and liars” affected her mental health, and contributed to a diagnosis of anorexia that forced her to drop out of university.

Her account concludes: “Even now as I go into my career, I still find it so incredibly hard to trust anyone, even subconsciously. I sabotage myself by not asking for help with anything.

“I’m trying hard to break this cycle but I’m 26 and am very conscious that I may never be able to fully commit to natural trust. But my family is still fighting. I’m still fighting, as are many hundreds involved in the Post Office trial.”

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the inquiry’s report “marks an important milestone for sub-postmasters and their families”.

He added that he was “committed to ensuring wronged sub-postmasters are given full, fair, and prompt redress”.

“The recommendations contained in Sir Wyn’s report require careful reflection, including on further action to complete the redress schemes,” Mr Reynolds said.

“Government will promptly respond to the recommendations in full in parliament.”

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