Reform UK have won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election by just six votes in a blow to Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership.
The narrow victory for new MP Sarah Pochin saw Nigel Farage’s party taking a constituency which Labour won with a majority of almost 14,700 at the general election less than 12 months ago.
Ms Pochin won with 12,645 votes, compared to the 12,639 votes secured by Labour candidate Karen Shore, making it the closest by-election result since records began in 1945.
Speaking after the result was declared, Mr Farage told Sky News’ chief political correspondent Jon Craig that “no one knows” what Sir Keir Starmer stands for.
He also blamed Labour’s loss on higher taxes and migration, saying a “sense of fairness bordering on resentment” was noticeable on the doorstep.
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He added that the result shows that “if you vote Conservative, you get Labour”, insisting his party is now the opposition to the government.
The vote in Runcorn is Sir Keir Starmer’s first by-election test as prime minister.
A Labour spokesperson said by-elections are “always difficult for the party in government and the events which led to this one being called made it even harder”.
They said: “While Labour has suffered an extremely narrow defeat, the shock is that the Conservative vote has collapsed.
Image: Nigel Farage with Reform’s Runcorn candidate Sarah Pochin
“Moderate voters are clearly appalled by the talk of a Tory-Reform pact.”
Conservative candidate Sean Houlston came in third with 2,341 votes.
The Tories called the result “a damning verdict on Keir Starmer’s leadership which has led to Labour losing a safe seat”.
A spokesperson said: “Just 10 months ago Labour won an enormous majority, including in this seat with 52% of the vote, but their policies have been a punch in the face for the people of Runcorn.
“Snatching Winter Fuel Payments from vulnerable pensioners, pushing farmers to the brink with their vindictive Family Farms Tax and hammering families with a £3500 jobs tax, families are being punished for their disastrous decisions in government. Now we know why Keir Starmer never bothered to visit the area.”
As well as the Runcorn by-election, voters on Thursday took part in contests to elect more than 1,600 councillors across 23 local authorities, along with four regional mayors and two local mayors.
In the first result of the night, Labour held on to the North Tyneside mayoralty by just 444 votes.
It then saw off Reform in the West of England and Doncaster to retain both mayoralties.
However Reform won the mayoralty in Greater Lincolnshire by a majority of 39,584.
Two other mayoralties up grabs are Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, and Hull and East Yorkshire.
Lead politics presenter Sophy Ridge, political editor Beth Rigby, and data and economics editor Ed Conway will be live on Friday morning to report and explain the results.
There’s no question that Kemi Badenoch’s on the ropes after a low-energy first year as leader that has seen the Conservative Party slide backwards by pretty much every metric.
But on Wednesday, the embattled leader came out swinging with a show-stopping pledge to scrap stamp duty, which left the hall delirious. “I thought you’d like that one,” she said with a laugh as party members cheered her on.
A genuine surprise announcement – many in the shadow cabinet weren’t even told – it gave the Conservatives and their leader a much-needed lift after what many have dubbed the lost year.
Image: Ms Badenoch with her husband, Hamish. Pic: PA
Ms Badenoch tried to answer that criticism this week with a policy blitz, headlined by her promise on stamp duty.
This is a leader giving her party some red meat to try to help her party at least get a hearing from the public, with pledges on welfare, immigration, tax cuts and policing.
In all of it, a tacit admission from Ms Badenoch and her team that as politics speeds up, they have not kept pace, letting Reform UK and Nigel Farage run ahead of them and grab the microphone by getting ahead of the Conservatives on scrapping net zero targets or leaving the ECHR in order to deport illegal migrants more easily.
Ms Badenoch is now trying to answer those criticisms and act.
At the heart of her offer is £47bn of spending cuts in order to pay down the nation’s debt pile and fund tax cuts such as stamp duty.
All of it is designed to try to restore the party’s reputation for economic competence, against a Labour Party of tax rises and a growing debt burden and a Reform party peddling “fantasy economics”.
She needs to do something, and fast. A YouGov poll released on the eve of her speech put the Conservatives joint third in the polls with the Lib Dems on 17%.
That’s 10 percentage points lower than when Ms Badenoch took power just under a year ago. The crisis, mutter her colleagues, is existential. One shadow cabinet minister lamented to me this week that they thought it was “50-50” as to whether the party can survive.
Image: (L-R) Shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith, shadow environment secretary Victoria Atkins and shadow housing secretary Sir James Cleverly. Pic: PA
Ms Badenoch had to do two things in her speech on Wednesday: the first was to try to reassert her authority over her party. The second was to get a bit of attention from the public with a set of policies that might encourage disaffected Tories to look at her party again.
On the first point, even her critics would have to agree that she had a successful conference and has given herself a bit of space from the constant chatter about her leadership with a headline-grabbing policy that could give her party some much-needed momentum.
On the second, the promise of spending control coupled with a retail offer of tax cuts does carve out a space against the Labour government and Reform.
But the memory of Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-Budget, the chaos of Boris Johnson’s premiership, and the failure of Sunak to cut NHS waiting lists or tackle immigration still weigh on the Conservative brand.
Ms Badenoch might have revived the room with her speech, but whether that translates into a wider revival around the country is very hard to read.
Ms Badenoch leaves Manchester knowing she pulled off her first conference speech as party leader: what she will be less sure about is whether it will be her last.
I thought she tacitly admitted that to me when she pointedly avoided answering the question of whether she would resign if the party goes backwards further in the English council, Scottish parliament and Welsh Senedd elections next year.
“Let’s see what the election result is about,” was her reply.
That is what many in her party are saying too, because if Ms Badenoch cannot show progress after 18 months in office, she might see her party turn to someone else.