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It’s quite simply a political earthquake. Across England, Reform proved it can translate positive polling into real power, picking up another parliamentary seat, a mayoralty, Staffordshire and Lincolnshire councils and dozens of seats by lunchtime. The popularity surge for this anti-establishment party is real. 

Look at the votes: Reform doubling its vote share in Runcorn against the general election to 38%, clocking up 42% of the vote in the Lincolnshire mayoral race and 32% in the Doncaster mayoral race, running Labour very close. By lunchtime, Reform had taken the long-held Staffordshire council from the Tories, wiping out their five-strong majority.

The significance of these wins, added in with the big gains for the Lib Dems and Greens, cannot be overstated. It speaks in a serious way to a new era of politics in the UK, in which the decades-long duopoly of Labour versus Conservative is crumbling with the rise of the other parties.

Politics latest: PM told to ‘change course’ as Reform surge to election wins

The trend was evident in the 2024 general election, when the two main parties got their lowest ever vote share. Labour’s clever targeting of seats ensured that it won a massive majority on just 34% of the popular vote. The Lib Dems won a record 70 seats, while Reform picked up five MPs and came second in 98 constituencies.

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Farage: ‘This is Reform-quake’

If that was a loveless landslide, this is the break-up, as voters, who backed Labour’s change message, seem to be pressing the change button again and turning out for a leader who is tapping into voters’ disillusionment with his slogan that “Britain is broken and needs Reform”.

For the government to lose a by-election just 10 months after winning a massive landslide is a terrible moment for Labour. It won this seat with 53% of the vote in July, against Reform polling at 18%. To end up losing it – albeit by just six votes – is a dreadful verdict from voters here on their early performance.

Those around the PM admit it is deeply frustrating but say they expected a kicking from an angry electorate impatient for change. They are taking crumbs of comfort in, just about, holding the mayoralties of Doncaster, North Tyneside and West of England.

But in early council results, the drop in the Labour vote is big, and that raises questions as to whether Starmer’s party will struggle to hold constituencies it gained in the July election, such as Hexham in Northumberland.

The approach from No 10 is to “keep calm and carry on” with its government agenda – the immigration white paper, defence review, infrastructure strategy – to deliver for the public and win back the support they had in the last general election in time for the next.

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Full local and mayoral election results
Reform has put the two traditional parties on notice

Nigel Farage holds up six fingers to indicate the six votes his party's candidate won by in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election.
Pic: Reuters
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Nigel Farage holds up six fingers to indicate the six votes his party’s candidate won by in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election. Pic: Reuters

For the Conservatives, it’s been – to quote one political rival – a “story of Tory councillors getting machine gunned”. In Staffordshire, where Farage did his final rally, Reform have taken a council where the Tories had a 50-strong majority.

The party has been absolutely hammered by Reform in the Tory heartlands of Lincolnshire, where Dame Andrea Jenkyns won the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty by 40,000 votes. In the general election, the Conservatives held six of the eight parliamentary seats in this county, on Friday Jenkyns beat the Tories in eight out of the nine areas.

Those around Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch are trying to steady nerves, arguing that these results are disappointing but not surprising in the context of the party’s worst-ever election defeat in 2024, with the party “under new leadership” and “still in the early stages of a long-term plan to renew”.

Others are panicked and angry. “This is what political extinction looks like,” one senior Tory source told me, in a sign that questions over Badenoch’s leadership are only going to build.

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How significant are Reform’s wins?

There are many results still to come in, but what these elections are pointing to is the rise of multi-party politics with voting spread across three or four parties in many of the races and the two main parties rapidly losing ground.

It ties into the longer run trends in our voting, leaning towards more parties and less tribalism amongst voters, as the electorate shift loyalties, and frustration with Labour and the Tories fuels support for the alternatives.

Reform’s success in Runcorn and Durham, as well as Staffordshire and Lincolnshire, shows that Farage poses a significant threat to the two main parties. Add in the Lib Dems, challenging the Tories in their blue wall shires on the centre right, and what we see emerging is a party system where the two governing parties are no longer dominant.

These elections then, while relatively small, are profoundly consequential for our political system. Where we go next is hugely unclear. Much will rest on whether Labour can deliver on its promises and dull Farage’s drumbeat of change.

The shadow of Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is cast onto a branded board during a press conference at the Best Western Premier Mount Pleasant Hotel, Great North Road, Doncaster, in the run up to May's local and mayoral elections. Picture date: Monday April 7, 2025. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS Reform. Photo credit should read: Danny Lawson/PA Wire
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Reform promised to fix ‘broken’ councils. Pic: PA

Reform’s challenge will be to prove that it can govern and sustain the additional scrutiny that being in office entails.

The Conservatives are in the most desperate place of all, squeezed by Reform on the right flank and the Lib Dems on the left. But what is clearer after today is that the political earthquake Farage has long promised is now shaking our political system in a perhaps epochal way.

The Reform leader has long been saying he is this country’s next prime minister. Looking at the way he and his party have translated poll leads into real power means that prospect is no longer a pipe dream.

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At least 13 people may have taken their own lives linked to Post Office scandal, public inquiry finds

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At least 13 people may have taken their own lives linked to Post Office scandal, public inquiry finds

At least 13 people may have taken their own lives after being accused of wrongdoing based on evidence from the Horizon IT system that the Post Office and developers Fujitsu knew could be false, the public inquiry has found.

A further 59 people told the inquiry they considered ending their lives, 10 of whom tried on at least one occasion, while other postmasters and family members recount suffering from alcoholism and mental health disorders including anorexia and depression, family breakup, divorce, bankruptcy and personal abuse.

Follow latest on public inquiry into Post Office scandal

Writing in the first volume of the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry report, chairman Sir Wyn Williams concludes that this enormous personal toll came despite senior employees at the Post Office knowing the Horizon IT system could produce accounts “which were illusory rather than real” even before it was rolled out to branches.

Sir Wyn said: “I am satisfied from the evidence that I have heard that a number of senior, and not so senior, employees of the Post Office knew or, at the very least, should have known that Legacy Horizon was capable of error… Yet, for all practical purposes, throughout the lifetime of Legacy Horizon, the Post Office maintained the fiction that its data was always accurate.”

Referring to the updated version of Horizon, known as Horizon Online, which also had “bugs errors and defects” that could create illusory accounts, he said: “I am satisfied that a number of employees of Fujitsu and the Post Office knew that this was so.”

The first volume of the report focuses on what Sir Wyn calls the “disastrous” impact of false accusations made against at least 1,000 postmasters, and the various redress schemes the Post Office and government has established since miscarriages of justice were identified and proven.

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‘It stole a lot from me’

Recommendations regarding the conduct of senior management of the Post Office, Fujitsu and ministers will come in a subsequent report, but Sir Wyn is clear that unjust and flawed prosecutions were knowingly pursued.

“All of these people are properly to be regarded as victims of wholly unacceptable behaviour perpetrated by a number of individuals employed by and/or associated with the Post Office and Fujitsu from time to time and by the Post Office and Fujitsu as institutions,” he says.

What are the inquiry’s recommendations?

Calling for urgent action from government and the Post Office to ensure “full and fair compensation”, he makes 19 recommendations including:

• Government and the Post Office to agree a definition of “full and fair” compensation to be used when agreeing payouts
• Ending “unnecessarily adversarial attitude” to initial offers that have depressed the value of payouts, ⁠and ensuring consistency across all four compensation schemes
• The creation of a standing body to administer financial redress to people wronged by public bodies
• Compensation to be extended to close family members of those affected who have suffered “serious negative consequences”
• The Post Office, Fujitsu and government agreeing a programme for “restorative justice”, a process that brings together those that have suffered harm with those that have caused it

Regarding the human impact of the Post Office’s pursuit of postmasters, including its use of unique powers of prosecution, Sir Wyn writes: “I do not think it is easy to exaggerate the trauma which persons are likely to suffer when they are the subject of criminal investigation, prosecution, conviction and sentence.”

He says that even the process of being interviewed under caution by Post Office investigators “will have been troubling at best and harrowing at worst”.

Read more:
Post Office inquiry lays bare heart-breaking legacy – analysis

‘Hostile and abusive behaviour’

The report finds that those wrongfully convicted were “subject to hostile and abusive behaviour” in their local communities, felt shame and embarrassment, with some feeling forced to move.

Detailing the impact on close family members of those prosecuted, Sir Wyn writes: “Wives, husbands, children and parents endured very significant suffering in the form of distress, worry and disruption to home life, in employment and education.

“In a number of cases, relationships with spouses broke down and ended in divorce or separation.

“In the most egregious cases, family members themselves suffered psychiatric illnesses or psychological problems and very significant financial losses… their suffering has been acute.”

The report includes 17 case studies of those affected by the scandal including some who have never spoken publicly before. They include Millie Castleton, daughter of Lee Castleton, one of the first postmasters prosecuted.

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Three things you need to know about Post Office report

She told the inquiry how her family being “branded thieves and liars” affected her mental health, and contributed to a diagnosis of anorexia that forced her to drop out of university.

Her account concludes: “Even now as I go into my career, I still find it so incredibly hard to trust anyone, even subconsciously. I sabotage myself by not asking for help with anything.

“I’m trying hard to break this cycle but I’m 26 and am very conscious that I may never be able to fully commit to natural trust. But my family is still fighting. I’m still fighting, as are many hundreds involved in the Post Office trial.”

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the inquiry’s report “marks an important milestone for sub-postmasters and their families”.

He added that he was “committed to ensuring wronged sub-postmasters are given full, fair, and prompt redress”.

“The recommendations contained in Sir Wyn’s report require careful reflection, including on further action to complete the redress schemes,” Mr Reynolds said.

“Government will promptly respond to the recommendations in full in parliament.”

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Post Office scandal inquiry lays bare a second injustice

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Post Office scandal inquiry lays bare a second injustice

The long-awaited first report from the Post Office Horizon scandal inquiry lays bare not just the devastating personal toll of one of the greatest miscarriages of justice in British legal history, but also the slow-motion failure of the government and the Post Office to deliver meaningful redress.

Sir Wyn Williams’s first report documents with stark clarity how hundreds of sub-postmasters, wrongly accused of theft and fraud due to the faulty Horizon IT system, lost their livelihoods, homes, reputations – and in some cases, their lives.

Follow Post Office inquiry latest

Thirteen people are believed to have taken their lives as a result of the scandal.

Fifty-nine contemplated it.

It talks of alcohol addiction, serious mental illness, and bankruptcy – all tearing families apart and leaving behind a heartbreaking legacy.

But if the scandal was a failure of justice, the response to it has become a second injustice.

More on Post Office Scandal

Critical on a technical level

The report is critical, on a fairly technical level, about the complexity, delays, and bureaucracy of redress schemes that have left victims still waiting years for full compensation.

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‘It stole a lot from me’

Hundreds of whom have died before seeing “full and fair redress”.

While Sir Wyn is fair to the government and the Post Office in stating that he believes their commitment to delivering the above has been in “good faith”, he concludes this has not been achieved for every victim, describing “formidable” difficulties.

There are 19 recommendations – including a push to ensure consistency across all four redress schemes, with an agreed and public definition of “full and fair redress”.

Compensation

Among them, that family members of victims should be compensated, and a permanent public body established to manage future redress schemes in future.

Additionally, Fujitsu, the Post Office, and the government should engage in formal restorative justice programmes.

There was also a flavour of what is to come in the final report later this year or next.

The report has found that both Fujitsu and Post Office staff knew Horizon could produce false data but concealed this, maintaining a false narrative of accuracy.

One of the most important things now, though, is how and when the government, Post Office, and Fujitsu respond officially.

Sir Wyn has also set a deadline of 10 October 2025 for that.

The victims of this scandal have waited long enough.

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‘Wholesale failure’ to address risks posed by Southport attacker before murders, says public inquiry chairman

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'Wholesale failure' to address risks posed by Southport attacker before murders, says public inquiry chairman

There was a “wholesale and general failure” to address the risks posed by Axel Rudakubana before the Southport attack, the chairman of the public inquiry into the murders has said.

In his opening statement at Liverpool Town Hall, Sir Adrian Fulford said the teenager’s “known predilection for knife crime” suggests it was “far from an unforeseeable catastrophic event”.

The former vice president of the Court of Appeal said Rudakubana’s actions “impose the heaviest of burdens” to investigate how it was possible for him to cause “such devastation”.

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‘We need to understand what went wrong’

The 18-year-old murdered Elsie Dot Stancomb, seven, Bebe King, six, and Alice da Silva Aguiar, nine, at a Taylor Swift-themed class on 29 July last year.

He also injured eight other children and two adults at the Hart Space in the Merseyside seaside town, with Sir Adrian describing the attack as “one of the most egregious crimes in our country’s history”.

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‘We don’t want Elsie forgotten’

The public inquiry, announced by Home Secretary Yvette Cooper in January, will look into whether the attack could or should have been prevented, given what was known about the killer.

Rudakubana, who was born in Cardiff, had been referred to the government’s anti-extremism Prevent scheme three times before the murders, including over research into school shootings and the London Bridge terror attack.

He had also accessed online material about explosives, warfare, knives, assassination and an al Qaeda training manual.

A rapid review into his contact with Prevent found his case should have been kept open and that he should have been referred to Channel, another anti-terror scheme.

Read more:
‘She had a wonderful impact – we don’t want her to be forgotten’

What is the anti-terrorism programme Prevent?

Rudakubana was twice caught with a knife and managed to hoard other blades, as well as a bow and arrow, machetes, a sledgehammer and the deadly toxin ricin at his home.

He bought the 20cm chef’s knife used to carry out the attack using a Virtual Private Network (VPN).

Sir Adrian said he did not want to pre-judge the outcome of the inquiry.

But he added: “These factors, if correct and when taken together, tend to suggest that far from being an unforeseeable catastrophic event, the perpetrator posed a very serious and significant risk of violent harm, over a number of years, with a particular and known predilection for knife crime.

“Furthermore, his ability, unhindered, to access gravely violent material on the internet, to order knives online when underage, and then to leave home unsupervised to commit the present attack, speaks to a wholesale and general failure to intervene effectively, or indeed at all, to address the risks that he posed.”

Sir Adrian said the inquiry will examine decisions taken in light of Rudakubana’s “deteriorating and deeply troubling behaviour” to identify “without fear or favour” all of the relevant failings.

He said he aims to make recommendations to ensure the best chance of stopping others “who may be drawn to treating their fellow human beings in such a cruel and inhuman way”.

Rudakubana, 18, was jailed for a minimum of 52 years in January and is being investigated over an alleged attack on a prison officer at Belmarsh prison in May.

Sir Adrian said he would be referred to by his initials or as “the perpetrator” during the inquiry and asked the media not to show his “terrifying and singularly distressing” police mugshot to avoid causing distress to the survivors and their families, who have been granted anonymity.

The surviving children, many whom were under the age of 10, are “bravely trying to cope with school life in the face of what they have suffered,” he added.

Sir Adrian asked those in the room to stand for a minute’s silence for the victims.

Some of those whose children were injured will speak at a hearing on Wednesday before the inquiry is adjourned to 8 September, with the first phase expected to last until November.

It will then move on to a second phase next year to “consider the wider issues of children and young people being drawn into extreme violence”.

Rachael Wong, director at law firm Bond Turner, representing the three bereaved families, said: “We know that nothing the inquiry reveals or subsequently recommends will change the unimaginable loss felt by the families of Elsie, Alice and Bebe, but we all now have a responsibility to ensure that something like this never happens again.

“We will be doing all we can to assist the chair through the inquiry and uncover the truth.

“It is only through intense public scrutiny that real change can be effected.”

Sefton Council is asking people not to leave flowers near schools or the scene of the attack to mark the anniversary later this month, but to donate to local charitable causes instead.

There will be a three-minute silence and flags will be lowered to half-mast on public buildings around the Liverpool city region.

“We fully understand that many of us still need to grieve and to mark the day,” the council said in an open letter.

“Our colleagues have been working with faith and community leaders to identify local spaces where you can go, within your neighbourhood, to pay tribute, whether this be to say a prayer, light a candle, speak to someone or quietly reflect in a way that feels right for you.”

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