It’s quite simply a political earthquake. Across England, Reform proved it can translate positive polling into real power, picking up another parliamentary seat, a mayoralty, Staffordshire and Lincolnshire councils and dozens of seats by lunchtime. The popularity surge for this anti-establishment party is real.
Look at the votes: Reform doubling its vote share in Runcorn against the general election to 38%, clocking up 42% of the vote in the Lincolnshire mayoral race and 32% in the Doncaster mayoral race, running Labour very close. By lunchtime, Reform had taken the long-held Staffordshire council from the Tories, wiping out their five-strong majority.
The significance of these wins, added in with the big gains for the Lib Dems and Greens, cannot be overstated. It speaks in a serious way to a new era of politics in the UK, in which the decades-long duopoly of Labour versus Conservative is crumbling with the rise of the other parties.
The trend was evident in the 2024 general election, when the two main parties got their lowest ever vote share. Labour’s clever targeting of seats ensured that it won a massive majority on just 34% of the popular vote. The Lib Dems won a record 70 seats, while Reform picked up five MPs and came second in 98 constituencies.
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4:47
Farage: ‘This is Reform-quake’
If that was a loveless landslide, this is the break-up, as voters, who backed Labour’s change message, seem to be pressing the change button again and turning out for a leader who is tapping into voters’ disillusionment with his slogan that “Britain is broken and needs Reform”.
For the government to lose a by-election just 10 months after winning a massive landslide is a terrible moment for Labour. It won this seat with 53% of the vote in July, against Reform polling at 18%. To end up losing it – albeit by just six votes – is a dreadful verdict from voters here on their early performance.
Those around the PM admit it is deeply frustrating but say they expected a kicking from an angry electorate impatient for change. They are taking crumbs of comfort in, just about, holding the mayoralties of Doncaster, North Tyneside and West of England.
But in early council results, the drop in the Labour vote is big, and that raises questions as to whether Starmer’s party will struggle to hold constituencies it gained in the July election, such as Hexham in Northumberland.
The approach from No 10 is to “keep calm and carry on” with its government agenda – the immigration white paper, defence review, infrastructure strategy – to deliver for the public and win back the support they had in the last general election in time for the next.
Image: Nigel Farage holds up six fingers to indicate the six votes his party’s candidate won by in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election. Pic: Reuters
For the Conservatives, it’s been – to quote one political rival – a “story of Tory councillors getting machine gunned”. In Staffordshire, where Farage did his final rally, Reform have taken a council where the Tories had a 50-strong majority.
The party has been absolutely hammered by Reform in the Tory heartlands of Lincolnshire, where Dame Andrea Jenkyns won the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty by 40,000 votes. In the general election, the Conservatives held six of the eight parliamentary seats in this county, on Friday Jenkyns beat the Tories in eight out of the nine areas.
Those around Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch are trying to steady nerves, arguing that these results are disappointing but not surprising in the context of the party’s worst-ever election defeat in 2024, with the party “under new leadership” and “still in the early stages of a long-term plan to renew”.
Others are panicked and angry. “This is what political extinction looks like,” one senior Tory source told me, in a sign that questions over Badenoch’s leadership are only going to build.
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10:43
How significant are Reform’s wins?
There are many results still to come in, but what these elections are pointing to is the rise of multi-party politics with voting spread across three or four parties in many of the races and the two main parties rapidly losing ground.
It ties into the longer run trends in our voting, leaning towards more parties and less tribalism amongst voters, as the electorate shift loyalties, and frustration with Labour and the Tories fuels support for the alternatives.
Reform’s success in Runcorn and Durham, as well as Staffordshire and Lincolnshire, shows that Farage poses a significant threat to the two main parties. Add in the Lib Dems, challenging the Tories in their blue wall shires on the centre right, and what we see emerging is a party system where the two governing parties are no longer dominant.
These elections then, while relatively small, are profoundly consequential for our political system. Where we go next is hugely unclear. Much will rest on whether Labour can deliver on its promises and dull Farage’s drumbeat of change.
Image: Reform promised to fix ‘broken’ councils. Pic: PA
Reform’s challenge will be to prove that it can govern and sustain the additional scrutiny that being in office entails.
The Conservatives are in the most desperate place of all, squeezed by Reform on the right flank and the Lib Dems on the left. But what is clearer after today is that the political earthquake Farage has long promised is now shaking our political system in a perhaps epochal way.
The Reform leader has long been saying he is this country’s next prime minister. Looking at the way he and his party have translated poll leads into real power means that prospect is no longer a pipe dream.
Britain is at the lowest risk of a winter power blackout than at any point in the last six years, the national electricity grid operator has said.
Not since the pre-pandemic winter of 2019-2020 has the risk been so low, the National Energy System Operator (NESO) said.
It’s thanks to increased battery capacity to store and deploy excess power from the likes of windfarms, and a new subsea electricity cable to Ireland that came on stream in April.
The margins between expected demand and supply are now roughly three gas power stations greater than last year, the NESO said.
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1:39
Renewables overtake coal for first time
It also comes as Britain and the world reached new records for green power.
For the first time, renewable energy produced more of the world’s electricity than coal in the first half of 2025, while in Britain, a record 54.5% of power came from renewables like solar and wind energy in the three months to June.
More renewable power can mean lower bills, as there’s less reliance on volatile oil and gas markets, which have remained elevated after the invasion of Ukraine and the Western attempt to wean off Russian fossil fuels.
“Renewables are lowering wholesale electricity prices by up to a quarter”, said Jess Ralston, an energy analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank.
In a recent winter, British coal plants were fired up to meet capacity constraints when cold weather increased demand, but still weather conditions meant lower supply, as the wind didn’t blow.
Those plants have since been decommissioned.
But it may not be all plain sailing…
There will, however, be some “tight” days, the NESO said.
On such occasions, the NESO will tell electricity suppliers to up their output.
The times Britain is most likely to experience supply constraints are in early December or mid-January, the grid operator said.
The NESO had been owned by National Grid, a public company listed on the New York Stock Exchange, but was acquired by the government for £630m in 2023.
A woman accused of stalking Madeleine McCann’s parents shouted: “Why are you doing this to me?” and was led away in tears by officers, during her trial.
Giving evidence against 24-year-old Julia Wandelt, Mrs McCann said her first contact with the Polish woman happened “about three years ago”.
Wandelt insisted that she was Madeleine, who went missing in Portugal in 2007, while stalking the missing girl’s parents by sending emails, calling them and turning up at their address, prosecutors allege.
Image: Wandelt claims to be missing Madeleine McCann (pictured)
Wandelt is accused of one count of stalking causing serious alarm and distress to Mrs McCann and Gerry McCann between June 2022 and February this year. She denies stalking.
She is on trial with 61-year-old Karen Spragg, from Cardiff, who is accused of the same offence and also denies the offence.
Speaking from behind a blue curtain screening her from the dock at Leicester Crown Court, Mrs McCann spoke about the defendants visiting her home address in Leicestershire on 7 December last year.
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Image: A court sketch of Karen Spragg (left) and Julia Wandelt (right), with Kate McCann sitting behind a blue curtain. Pic: PA
Mrs McCann told the court that Wandelt had been “pleading” with her, asking why she wouldn’t agree to do a DNA test.
Spragg, who accompanied Wandelt, was “slightly more aggressive”, asking her whether she didn’t want to find her daughter, Mrs McCann added.
“I told them to leave. I told them I was distressed,” she told the court.
Image: Karen Spragg arrives at Leicester Crown Court. Pic: PA
Asked how the incident had made her feel, Mrs McCann added: “I felt quite distressed to be honest. I think I had been on edge anyway because of the recent communications from her.”
After Mrs McCann had given her first round of evidence, Wandelt was led away from the dock after sobbing loudly and shouting: “Why are you doing this to me?”.
Mrs McCann told the jury that Wandelt had been “incessant” with her messages, which left her with a “little niggle” about doing a DNA test.
Image: Kate and Gerry McCann are pictured in 2012 with a missing poster depicting an age progression computer-generated image of Madeleine. Pic: AP
She said part of her brain was “saying ‘what if'” because of Wandelt’s frequent messages, but added: “Having seen a photo of her, she’s Polish … it doesn’t make sense.”
“I can’t say what Madeleine looks like now, but if I saw a photo of her, I would recognise her,” she said.
But she added that the “persistance” of Wandelt’s behaviour started to “get to” her, making her “almost [want] a DNA test to put it to bed”.
Asked about the impact on her between June 2022, when Wandelt first made contact, and February this year, when the 24-year-old was arrested, Mrs McCann said: “I feel like it has escalated, the level of stress and anxiety it’s caused me has increased over that time.”
She added that she has felt “more relaxed” since Wandelt’s arrest.
Gerry McCann told the court he answered the phone to Julia Wandelt on one of the many occasions that she tried to call Kate. He said he told Wandelt: “You’re not Madeleine.”
He said: “I made it very clear these were unwanted calls. To be honest, it was a bit of a blur.”
There’s no question that Kemi Badenoch’s on the ropes after a low-energy first year as leader that has seen the Conservative Party slide backwards by pretty much every metric.
But on Wednesday, the embattled leader came out swinging with a show-stopping pledge to scrap stamp duty, which left the hall delirious. “I thought you’d like that one,” she said with a laugh as party members cheered her on.
A genuine surprise announcement – many in the shadow cabinet weren’t even told – it gave the Conservatives and their leader a much-needed lift after what many have dubbed the lost year.
Image: Ms Badenoch with her husband, Hamish. Pic: PA
Ms Badenoch tried to answer that criticism this week with a policy blitz, headlined by her promise on stamp duty.
This is a leader giving her party some red meat to try to help her party at least get a hearing from the public, with pledges on welfare, immigration, tax cuts and policing.
In all of it, a tacit admission from Ms Badenoch and her team that as politics speeds up, they have not kept pace, letting Reform UK and Nigel Farage run ahead of them and grab the microphone by getting ahead of the Conservatives on scrapping net zero targets or leaving the ECHR in order to deport illegal migrants more easily.
Ms Badenoch is now trying to answer those criticisms and act.
At the heart of her offer is £47bn of spending cuts in order to pay down the nation’s debt pile and fund tax cuts such as stamp duty.
All of it is designed to try to restore the party’s reputation for economic competence, against a Labour Party of tax rises and a growing debt burden and a Reform party peddling “fantasy economics”.
She needs to do something, and fast. A YouGov poll released on the eve of her speech put the Conservatives joint third in the polls with the Lib Dems on 17%.
That’s 10 percentage points lower than when Ms Badenoch took power just under a year ago. The crisis, mutter her colleagues, is existential. One shadow cabinet minister lamented to me this week that they thought it was “50-50” as to whether the party can survive.
Image: (L-R) Shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith, shadow environment secretary Victoria Atkins and shadow housing secretary Sir James Cleverly. Pic: PA
Ms Badenoch had to do two things in her speech on Wednesday: the first was to try to reassert her authority over her party. The second was to get a bit of attention from the public with a set of policies that might encourage disaffected Tories to look at her party again.
On the first point, even her critics would have to agree that she had a successful conference and has given herself a bit of space from the constant chatter about her leadership with a headline-grabbing policy that could give her party some much-needed momentum.
On the second, the promise of spending control coupled with a retail offer of tax cuts does carve out a space against the Labour government and Reform.
But the memory of Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-Budget, the chaos of Boris Johnson’s premiership, and the failure of Sunak to cut NHS waiting lists or tackle immigration still weigh on the Conservative brand.
Ms Badenoch might have revived the room with her speech, but whether that translates into a wider revival around the country is very hard to read.
Ms Badenoch leaves Manchester knowing she pulled off her first conference speech as party leader: what she will be less sure about is whether it will be her last.
I thought she tacitly admitted that to me when she pointedly avoided answering the question of whether she would resign if the party goes backwards further in the English council, Scottish parliament and Welsh Senedd elections next year.
“Let’s see what the election result is about,” was her reply.
That is what many in her party are saying too, because if Ms Badenoch cannot show progress after 18 months in office, she might see her party turn to someone else.