The political earthquake Farage has long promised is now shaking our political system
It’s quite simply a political earthquake. Across England, Reform proved it can translate positive polling into real power, picking up another parliamentary seat, a mayoralty, Staffordshire and Lincolnshire councils and dozens of seats by lunchtime. The popularity surge for this anti-establishment party is real.
Look at the votes: Reform doubling its vote share in Runcorn against the general election to 38%, clocking up 42% of the vote in the Lincolnshire mayoral race and 32% in the Doncaster mayoral race, running Labour very close. By lunchtime, Reform had taken the long-held Staffordshire council from the Tories, wiping out their five-strong majority.
The significance of these wins, added in with the big gains for the Lib Dems and Greens, cannot be overstated. It speaks in a serious way to a new era of politics in the UK, in which the decades-long duopoly of Labour versus Conservative is crumbling with the rise of the other parties.
Politics latest: PM told to ‘change course’ as Reform surge to election wins
The trend was evident in the 2024 general election, when the two main parties got their lowest ever vote share. Labour’s clever targeting of seats ensured that it won a massive majority on just 34% of the popular vote. The Lib Dems won a record 70 seats, while Reform picked up five MPs and came second in 98 constituencies.
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Farage: ‘This is Reform-quake’
If that was a loveless landslide, this is the break-up, as voters, who backed Labour’s change message, seem to be pressing the change button again and turning out for a leader who is tapping into voters’ disillusionment with his slogan that “Britain is broken and needs Reform”.
For the government to lose a by-election just 10 months after winning a massive landslide is a terrible moment for Labour. It won this seat with 53% of the vote in July, against Reform polling at 18%. To end up losing it – albeit by just six votes – is a dreadful verdict from voters here on their early performance.
Those around the PM admit it is deeply frustrating but say they expected a kicking from an angry electorate impatient for change. They are taking crumbs of comfort in, just about, holding the mayoralties of Doncaster, North Tyneside and West of England.
But in early council results, the drop in the Labour vote is big, and that raises questions as to whether Starmer’s party will struggle to hold constituencies it gained in the July election, such as Hexham in Northumberland.
The approach from No 10 is to “keep calm and carry on” with its government agenda – the immigration white paper, defence review, infrastructure strategy – to deliver for the public and win back the support they had in the last general election in time for the next.
Read more:
Full local and mayoral election results
Reform has put the two traditional parties on notice
Nigel Farage holds up six fingers to indicate the six votes his party’s candidate won by in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election. Pic: Reuters
For the Conservatives, it’s been – to quote one political rival – a “story of Tory councillors getting machine gunned”. In Staffordshire, where Farage did his final rally, Reform have taken a council where the Tories had a 50-strong majority.
The party has been absolutely hammered by Reform in the Tory heartlands of Lincolnshire, where Dame Andrea Jenkyns won the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty by 40,000 votes. In the general election, the Conservatives held six of the eight parliamentary seats in this county, on Friday Jenkyns beat the Tories in eight out of the nine areas.
Those around Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch are trying to steady nerves, arguing that these results are disappointing but not surprising in the context of the party’s worst-ever election defeat in 2024, with the party “under new leadership” and “still in the early stages of a long-term plan to renew”.
Others are panicked and angry. “This is what political extinction looks like,” one senior Tory source told me, in a sign that questions over Badenoch’s leadership are only going to build.
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How significant are Reform’s wins?
There are many results still to come in, but what these elections are pointing to is the rise of multi-party politics with voting spread across three or four parties in many of the races and the two main parties rapidly losing ground.
It ties into the longer run trends in our voting, leaning towards more parties and less tribalism amongst voters, as the electorate shift loyalties, and frustration with Labour and the Tories fuels support for the alternatives.
Reform’s success in Runcorn and Durham, as well as Staffordshire and Lincolnshire, shows that Farage poses a significant threat to the two main parties. Add in the Lib Dems, challenging the Tories in their blue wall shires on the centre right, and what we see emerging is a party system where the two governing parties are no longer dominant.
These elections then, while relatively small, are profoundly consequential for our political system. Where we go next is hugely unclear. Much will rest on whether Labour can deliver on its promises and dull Farage’s drumbeat of change.
Reform promised to fix ‘broken’ councils. Pic: PA
Reform’s challenge will be to prove that it can govern and sustain the additional scrutiny that being in office entails.
The Conservatives are in the most desperate place of all, squeezed by Reform on the right flank and the Lib Dems on the left. But what is clearer after today is that the political earthquake Farage has long promised is now shaking our political system in a perhaps epochal way.
The Reform leader has long been saying he is this country’s next prime minister. Looking at the way he and his party have translated poll leads into real power means that prospect is no longer a pipe dream.
The UK-US trade deal has been signed and is “done”, US President Donald Trump has said as he met Sir Keir Starmer at the G7 summit.
The US president told reporters in Canada: “We signed it, and it’s done. It’s a fair deal for both. It’ll produce a lot of jobs, a lot of income.”
Sir Keir said the document “implements” the deal to cut tariffs on cars and aerospace, describing it as a “really important agreement”.
“So this is a very good day for both of our countries – a real sign of strength,” the prime minister added.
Mr Trump added that the UK was “very well protected” against any future tariffs, saying: “You know why? Because I like them”.
However, he did not say whether levies on British steel exports to the US would be set to 0%, saying “we’re gonna let you have that information in a little while”.
Mr Trump also praised Sir Keir as a “great” prime minister, adding: “We’ve been talking about this deal for six years, and he’s done what they haven’t been able to do.”
He added: “We’re very longtime partners and allies and friends and we’ve become friends in a short period of time.
“He’s slightly more liberal than me to put it mildly… but we get along.”
Sir Keir added that “we make it work”.
As the pair exited a mountain lodge in the Canadian Rockies where the summit is being held, Mr Trump held up a physical copy of the trade agreement to show reporters.
Several leaves of paper fell from the binding, and Sir Keir quickly stooped to pick them up, saying: “A very important document.”
Sir Keir Starmer picks up paper from the UK-US trade deal after Donald Trump dropped it at the G7 summit. Pic: Reuters
The US president also appeared to mistakenly refer to a “trade agreement with the European Union” at one point as he stood alongside the British prime minister.
Mr Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on countries in April. At the time, he announced 10% “reciprocal” rates on all UK exports – as well as separately announced 25% levies on cars and steel.
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In a joint televised phone call in May, Sir Keir and Mr Trump announced the UK and US had agreed on a trade deal – but added the details were being finalised.
Ahead of the G7 summit, the prime minister said he would meet Mr Trump for “one-on-one” talks, and added the agreement “really matters for the vital sectors that are safeguarded under our deal, and we’ve got to implement that”.
Whitehall officials tried to convince Michael Gove to go to court to cover up the grooming scandal in 2011, Sky News can reveal.
Dominic Cummings, who was working for Lord Gove at the time, has told Sky News that officials in the Department for Education (DfE) wanted to help efforts by Rotherham Council to stop a national newspaper from exposing the scandal.
In an interview with Sky News, Mr Cummings said that officials wanted a “total cover-up”.
Politics latest: Grooming gangs findings unveiled
The revelation shines a light on the institutional reluctance of some key officials in central government to publicly highlight the grooming gang scandal.
In 2011, Rotherham Council approached the Department for Education asking for help following inquiries by The Times. The paper’s then chief reporter, the late Andrew Norfolk, was asking about sexual abuse and trafficking of children in Rotherham.
The council went to Lord Gove’s Department for Education for help. Officials considered the request and then recommended to Lord Gove’s office that the minister back a judicial review which might, if successful, stop The Times publishing the story.
Lord Gove rejected the request on the advice of Mr Cummings. Sources have independently confirmed Mr Cummings’ account.
Education Secretary Michael Gove in 2011. Pic: PA
Mr Cummings told Sky News: “Officials came to me in the Department of Education and said: ‘There’s this Times journalist who wants to write the story about these gangs. The local authority wants to judicially review it and stop The Times publishing the story’.
“So I went to Michael Gove and said: ‘This council is trying to actually stop this and they’re going to use judicial review. You should tell the council that far from siding with the council to stop The Times you will write to the judge and hand over a whole bunch of documents and actually blow up the council’s JR (judicial review).’
“Some officials wanted a total cover-up and were on the side of the council…
“They wanted to help the local council do the cover-up and stop The Times’ reporting, but other officials, including in the DfE private office, said this is completely outrageous and we should blow it up. Gove did, the judicial review got blown up, Norfolk stories ran.”
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Grooming gangs victim speaks out
The judicial review wanted by officials would have asked a judge to decide about the lawfulness of The Times’ publication plans and the consequences that would flow from this information entering the public domain.
A second source told Sky News that the advice from officials was to side with Rotherham Council and its attempts to stop publication of details it did not want in the public domain.
One of the motivations cited for stopping publication would be to prevent the identities of abused children entering the public domain.
There was also a fear that publication could set back the existing attempts to halt the scandal, although incidents of abuse continued for many years after these cases.
Sources suggested that there is also a natural risk aversion amongst officials to publicity of this sort.
Read more on grooming gangs:
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A timeline of the scandal
Mr Cummings, who ran the Vote Leave Brexit campaign and was Boris Johnson’s right-hand man in Downing Street, has long pushed for a national inquiry into grooming gangs to expose failures at the heart of government.
He said the inquiry, announced today, “will be a total s**tshow for Whitehall because it will reveal how much Whitehall worked to try and cover up the whole thing.”
He also described Mr Johnson, with whom he has a long-standing animus, as a “moron’ for saying that money spent on inquiries into historic child sexual abuse had been “spaffed up the wall”.
Asked by Sky News political correspondent Liz Bates why he had not pushed for a public inquiry himself when he worked in Number 10 in 2019-20, Mr Cummings said Brexit and then COVID had taken precedence.
“There are a million things that I wanted to do but in 2019 we were dealing with the constitutional crisis,” he said.
The Department for Education and Rotherham Council have been approached for comment.
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