The political earthquake Farage has long promised is now shaking our political system
It’s quite simply a political earthquake. Across England, Reform proved it can translate positive polling into real power, picking up another parliamentary seat, a mayoralty, Staffordshire and Lincolnshire councils and dozens of seats by lunchtime. The popularity surge for this anti-establishment party is real.
Look at the votes: Reform doubling its vote share in Runcorn against the general election to 38%, clocking up 42% of the vote in the Lincolnshire mayoral race and 32% in the Doncaster mayoral race, running Labour very close. By lunchtime, Reform had taken the long-held Staffordshire council from the Tories, wiping out their five-strong majority.
The significance of these wins, added in with the big gains for the Lib Dems and Greens, cannot be overstated. It speaks in a serious way to a new era of politics in the UK, in which the decades-long duopoly of Labour versus Conservative is crumbling with the rise of the other parties.
Politics latest: PM told to ‘change course’ as Reform surge to election wins
The trend was evident in the 2024 general election, when the two main parties got their lowest ever vote share. Labour’s clever targeting of seats ensured that it won a massive majority on just 34% of the popular vote. The Lib Dems won a record 70 seats, while Reform picked up five MPs and came second in 98 constituencies.
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Farage: ‘This is Reform-quake’
If that was a loveless landslide, this is the break-up, as voters, who backed Labour’s change message, seem to be pressing the change button again and turning out for a leader who is tapping into voters’ disillusionment with his slogan that “Britain is broken and needs Reform”.
For the government to lose a by-election just 10 months after winning a massive landslide is a terrible moment for Labour. It won this seat with 53% of the vote in July, against Reform polling at 18%. To end up losing it – albeit by just six votes – is a dreadful verdict from voters here on their early performance.
Those around the PM admit it is deeply frustrating but say they expected a kicking from an angry electorate impatient for change. They are taking crumbs of comfort in, just about, holding the mayoralties of Doncaster, North Tyneside and West of England.
But in early council results, the drop in the Labour vote is big, and that raises questions as to whether Starmer’s party will struggle to hold constituencies it gained in the July election, such as Hexham in Northumberland.
The approach from No 10 is to “keep calm and carry on” with its government agenda – the immigration white paper, defence review, infrastructure strategy – to deliver for the public and win back the support they had in the last general election in time for the next.
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Full local and mayoral election results
Reform has put the two traditional parties on notice
Nigel Farage holds up six fingers to indicate the six votes his party’s candidate won by in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election. Pic: Reuters
For the Conservatives, it’s been – to quote one political rival – a “story of Tory councillors getting machine gunned”. In Staffordshire, where Farage did his final rally, Reform have taken a council where the Tories had a 50-strong majority.
The party has been absolutely hammered by Reform in the Tory heartlands of Lincolnshire, where Dame Andrea Jenkyns won the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty by 40,000 votes. In the general election, the Conservatives held six of the eight parliamentary seats in this county, on Friday Jenkyns beat the Tories in eight out of the nine areas.
Those around Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch are trying to steady nerves, arguing that these results are disappointing but not surprising in the context of the party’s worst-ever election defeat in 2024, with the party “under new leadership” and “still in the early stages of a long-term plan to renew”.
Others are panicked and angry. “This is what political extinction looks like,” one senior Tory source told me, in a sign that questions over Badenoch’s leadership are only going to build.
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How significant are Reform’s wins?
There are many results still to come in, but what these elections are pointing to is the rise of multi-party politics with voting spread across three or four parties in many of the races and the two main parties rapidly losing ground.
It ties into the longer run trends in our voting, leaning towards more parties and less tribalism amongst voters, as the electorate shift loyalties, and frustration with Labour and the Tories fuels support for the alternatives.
Reform’s success in Runcorn and Durham, as well as Staffordshire and Lincolnshire, shows that Farage poses a significant threat to the two main parties. Add in the Lib Dems, challenging the Tories in their blue wall shires on the centre right, and what we see emerging is a party system where the two governing parties are no longer dominant.
These elections then, while relatively small, are profoundly consequential for our political system. Where we go next is hugely unclear. Much will rest on whether Labour can deliver on its promises and dull Farage’s drumbeat of change.
Reform promised to fix ‘broken’ councils. Pic: PA
Reform’s challenge will be to prove that it can govern and sustain the additional scrutiny that being in office entails.
The Conservatives are in the most desperate place of all, squeezed by Reform on the right flank and the Lib Dems on the left. But what is clearer after today is that the political earthquake Farage has long promised is now shaking our political system in a perhaps epochal way.
The Reform leader has long been saying he is this country’s next prime minister. Looking at the way he and his party have translated poll leads into real power means that prospect is no longer a pipe dream.
Criminals who refuse to attend their sentencing hearings will face further punishment under a new law.
The government is introducing the Victims and Courts Bill to parliament today, which will include more jail time or loss of privileges in prison in England and Wales for criminals who refuse to attend court for sentencing.
Several high-profile offenders have refused to face victims’ families, sparking a public outcry and calls for a change in the law.
The families of murdered primary school teacher Sabina Nessa, law graduate Zara Aleena and mother-of-three Jan Mustafa have all campaigned for the change after their killers were absent from sentencing hearings.
Ms Nessa’s sister, Jebina Islam, Ms Aleena’s aunt, Farah Naz, and Ms Mustafa’s cousin, Ayse Hussein, said: “This move holds offenders to account.
“It sends a clear and necessary message: the justice system is not something you should be able to opt out of.
“It is not about punishment through force – but about ensuring that perpetrators cannot remove themselves from the consequences of their actions.”
Teacher Sabina Nessa was killed by Koci Selamaj in 2021 after he drove to London to assault a stranger
They said the legislation is a “step in the right direction” and the proposed punishments indicate it is “being taken seriously”.
The trio added: “This change supports victims and society alike. It shows justice being done.
“It gives families a moment of recognition and a form of reparation. It is a moment of reckoning for the convicted.”
Under the new legislation, judges will be able to sentence offenders for up to two more years in prison for avoiding justice.
Those already facing lengthy imprisonment or whole life orders could have a range of prison punishments, such as confinement to their cells and being stripped of privileges, such as extra gym time.
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Former Tory prime minister Rishi Sunak had pledged to change the law after meeting the mother of murdered nine-year-old Olivia Pratt-Korbel, and Sir Keir Starmer promised to enact it.
Olivia Pratt-Korbel was killed by Thomas Cashman, who refused to attend his sentencing hearing in 2023
Thomas Cashman, the gunman who killed Olivia as he chased a drug dealer who had run into her Liverpool home, did not appear in court to hear his life sentence in April 2023.
Earlier this year, triple crossbow and knife killer Kyle Clifford refused to attend his sentencing when he received a whole life order.
Southport child murderer Axel Rudakubana was removed from his sentencing hearing for repeatedly shouting in January.
Teacher Sabina Nessa was killed by Koci Selamaj in 2021 after he drove to London to assault a stranger
Zara Aleena was killed by Jordan McSweeney, who should have been recalled to prison at the time. Pic: PA
Justice minister Alex Davies-Jones said: “I would like to thank the remarkable families of Olivia Pratt-Korbel, Jan Mustafa, Sabina Nessa and Zara Aleena and countless others who have campaigned tirelessly for offenders to have to face the reality of their crimes by attending their sentencing.
“Justice isn’t optional – we’ll make sure criminals face their victims.”
The bill also says it will restrict parental responsibility from child sex offenders who commit serious crimes against their own children.
The powers of the Victims’ Commissioner will also be strengthened to require them to produce an independent report on whether agencies are meeting their statutory duty over the Victim’s Code to hold the government to account.
Child protection charity the NSPCC backed the move, saying they hope it will improve how young victims and survivors are treated, but said it was “not a complete solution”.
Eighteen-year-olds will be allowed to drive trains due to concerns over labour shortages, the Department for Transport (DfT) has announced.
The current minimum age for someone wanting a career on the railways is 20.
But with 87% of night-before cancellations made because a driver is unavailable, the government has decided to lower the age of entry by a couple of years.
Several operators rely on drivers to work extra shifts voluntarily.
At present, the average age of a British train driver is 48, while 30% are due to reach retirement age by 2029.
A consultation on lowering the minimum age for drivers, carried out last year by the Conservative government, received “overwhelming support from across the industry”, the DfT said.
Other nations which have lowered the age for train drivers are France, Germany, the Netherlands and Switzerland, officials added.
Transport for London opened driver apprenticeships on the Underground to 18-year-olds in 2007.
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Training to drive mainline trains generally takes between one and two years.
Assessment and qualification standards will be unchanged.
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Industry body the Rail Safety and Standards Board said its research had shown 18-year-olds are “capable of safely becoming train drivers”.
New job and apprenticeship opportunities could be available as early as December, the DfT said.
Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary, said the government was “future-proofing” the railways against “delays and cancellations caused by a shortage of drivers”.
Mick Whelan, general secretary of train drivers’ union Aslef, said: “At the moment, young people who want to become train drivers leave school or college at 18, get other jobs, and we miss out as an industry as they don’t wait around until they turn 20 to find a career.”
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