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The owners of Hovis and Kingsmill, two of Britain’s leading bread producers, are in talks about a historic merger amid a decades-long decline in the sale of supermarket loaves.

Sky News has learnt that Associated British Foods (ABF), the London-listed company which owns Kingsmill’s immediate parent, Allied Bakeries, and Hovis, which is owned by investment firm Endless, have been involved in prolonged discussions about a combination of the two businesses.

City sources said this weekend that the talks were ongoing, but that there was no certainty that a deal would be finalised.

Bankers are said to be working with both sides on the talks about a transaction.

A deal could be structured as an acquisition of Hovis by ABF, according to analysts, although details about the mechanics of a merger or the valuations attached to the two businesses were unclear this weekend.

ABF is also said to be exploring other options for the future of Allied Bakeries which do not include a deal with Hovis.

If completed, a merger would unite two of Britain’s best-known ambient food brands, with Allied Bakeries having been founded in 1935 by Willard Garfield Weston, part of the family which continues to control ABF.

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Hovis traces its history back even further, having been created in 1890 when Herbert Grime scooped a £25 prize for coming up with the name Hovis, which was derived from the Latin ‘Hominis Vis’ – meaning strength of man.

Persistent inflation, competition from speciality bread producers and shifting consumer habits towards lower-carb diets have combined to impair the bread industry’s financial health in recent decades.

The impact of the war in Ukraine on wheat and flour prices has been among the factors increasing inflationary pressures on bread producers, according to the most recent set of accounts for Hovis filed at Companies House last year.

The overall UK bakery market is said to be worth about £5bn in annual sales, with the equivalent of 11m loaves being sold each day.

The principal obstacle facing a merger of Allied Bakeries, which also owns the Sunblest and Allinson’s bread brands, and Hovis would reside in its consequences for competition in the UK market.

Warburtons, the family-owned business which is the largest bakery group in Britain, is estimated to have a 34% share of the branded wrapped sliced bread sector in the UK, with Hovis on 24% and Allied on 17%, according to industry insiders.

A merger of Hovis and Kingsmill would give the combined group a larger share of that segment of the market, although one source said Warburtons’ overall turnover would remain larger because of the breadth of its product range.

Nevertheless, reducing the number of major supermarket bread suppliers from three to two would be a test of the Competition and Markets Authority’s approach to such industry-reshaping mergers at a time when the watchdog is under intense government scrutiny.

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In January, the government removed the CMA chairman, Marcus Bokkerink, as part of a push to reorient Britain’s economic regulators around growth-focused objectives.

An industry insider suggested that a joint venture involving the distribution networks of Hovis and Kingsmill was a possible, although less likely, alternative to a full-blown merger of the companies.

They added that a combined group could benefit from up to £50m of cost savings from such a tie-up.

In its interim results announcement this week, ABF said the performance of Allied Bakeries had continued to struggle.

“Allied Bakeries continues to face a very challenging market,” it said.

“We are evaluating strategic options for Allied Bakeries against this backdrop and we expect to provide an update in [the second half of] 2025.”

In a separate presentation to analysts, ABF described the losses at Allied as unsustainable.

The company does not disclose details of Allied Bakeries’ financial performance.

Allied also owns Speedibake, an own-label bread manufacturer.

Hovis has been owned by Endless, a prominent investor in British businesses, since 2020, having previously been owned by Mr Kipling-maker Premier Foods and the Gores family.

At the time of the most recent takeover, High Wycombe-based Hovis employed about 2,700 people and operated eight bakery sites and its own flour mill.

Hovis’s current chief executive, Jon Jenkins, is a former boss of Allied Milling and Baking.

This weekend, ABF and Endless both declined to comment.

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UK-India trade deal: Is Farage right to call out ‘big tax exemption’?

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UK-India trade deal: Is Farage right to call out 'big tax exemption'?

Britain’s trade deal with India has created a pocket of controversy on taxation.

Under the agreement, Indian workers who have been seconded to Britain temporarily will not have to pay National Insurance (NI) contributions in the UK. Instead, they will continue to pay the Indian exchequer.

The same applies to British workers in India. It avoids workers from being taxed twice for a full suite of benefits they will not receive, such as the state pension.

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Politicians of all stripes have leapt to judgement.

Nigel Farage has described it as a “big tax exemption” for Indian workers. He said it was “impossible to say how many will come,” with the Reform Party warning of “more mass immigration, more pressure on the NHS, more pressure on housing.”

But, is this deal really undercutting British workers or is it simply creating a level playing field?

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Be wary of any hasty conclusions. In the absence of an impact assessment from the government, it is difficult to be precise about any of this. However, at first glance, it is unlikely that some of Reform’s worst fears will play out.

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Firstly, avoiding double taxation is not the same thing as a “tax break.’ This type of agreement, known as a double contribution convention, is not new.

Britain has similar arrangements with other countries and blocs, including the US, EU, Canada and Japan.

It’s based on the principle that workers shouldn’t be paying twice for social security taxes that they will not benefit from.

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Indian workers and businesses will still have to pay the equivalent tax in India, as well as sponsorship fees and the NHS surcharge.

Crucially, the deal only applies to workers being sent over by Indian companies on a temporary basis.

Those workers are on Indian payroll. It does not apply to Indian workers more generally. That means businesses in the UK can’t (and won’t) suddenly be replacing all their workers with Indians.

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The conditions for a company to send over a secondee on a work visa are restrictive. It means it’s unlikely that these workers will be replacing British workers.

However, It does mean that the exchequer will not capture the extra national insurance tax from those who come over on this route.

The government has not shared its impact assessment for how many extra Indians they expect to come over on this route, how much NI they will escape, or how much this will be offset by extra income tax from those Indians. The net financial position is therefore murky.

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New WH Smith owner Modella seeks to add Poundland to retail empire

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New WH Smith owner Modella seeks to add Poundland to retail empire

The little-known investor cutting a swathe through the British high street has made it onto a shortlist of bidders vying to buy Poundland, the struggling discounter.

Sky News has learnt that Modella is among a handful of bidders notified in recent days that they have made it through to a second stage of the auction of Poundland.

Its progress in the sale process raises the prospect of Modella taking ownership of its fourth major British retailer in less than nine months.

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The investment firm already owns Hobbycraft and The Original Factory Shop, where it has in recent weeks launched company voluntary arrangements – court-sanctioned restructuring deals which allow it to close loss-making stores and slash rent payments.

Modella has also agreed to buy WH Smith’s historic high street chain and rebrand it under the name TG Jones.

That deal has yet to close, and Sky News reported at the weekend that Modella will effectively be prohibited from launching a CVA there for at least a year under the terms of its deal with WH Smith.

Among the other suitors for Poundland are Endless, the turnaround investor, and Hilco Capital, the new owner of Lakeland.

Poundland has been put up for sale by Pepco Group, its Warsaw-listed owner, amid mounting losses and a struggle to turn the company around.

Pepco confirmed in March that it planned to explore a sale of the business, with Teneo hired to advise on an auction.

Last year, Poundland, which employs about 18,000 people, recorded roughly €2bn of sales.

Earlier this year, Pepco, which also trades as Pepco and Dealz in Europe, said Poundland had seen a like-for-like sales slump of 7.3% during the Christmas trading period.

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In an accompanying trading statement, Pepco said that Poundland had suffered “a more difficult sales environment and consumer backdrop in the UK, alongside margin pressure and an increasingly higher operating cost environment”.

Recent tax hikes announced by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, in last autumn’s Budget have also increased the financial pressure on high street retailers.

Modella declined to comment on its interest in Poundland.

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Trade war: China moves to ease tariff pain ahead of US peace talks

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Trade war: China moves to ease tariff pain ahead of US peace talks

China has revealed a series of measures designed to help its economy navigate the effects of the escalating trade war with the United States, hours after exploratory peace talks were announced.

Senior officials from both sides are to meet in Switzerland this weekend for what are understood to be the first face-to-face meeting between the world’s two largest economies in months.

The Trump administration has raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145% while Beijing has responded with levies of 125% in recent weeks.

The effects are starting to be felt in both countries in respect of price, supply and business sentiment.

China’s export-dominated economy is showing strain in terms of factory order books while official figures recently revealed that the US economy contracted between January and March.

US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese vice premier He Lifeng will lead their respective delegations.

President Trump had previously suggested that any talks would look to lower tariffs but China has demanded the US moves first.

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A Commerce Ministry spokesperson said: “The Chinese side carefully evaluated the information from the US side and decided to agree to have contact with the US side after fully considering global expectations, Chinese interests and calls from US businesses and consumers.”

Commentators said it was impossible to know what could be achieved at the talks in Geneva but cautioned that any meaningful truce would take months to fully iron out.

Official Chinese economic data is yet to show the extent of the harm the trade war is causing but a coordinated stimulus effort was revealed by the authorities on Wednesday.

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Officials from the country’s central bank outlined plans to cut interest rates and reduce bank reserve requirements to help free up more funding for lending.

It will be hoped that bolstering activity in the economy will help lift prices generally as the country battles deflation.

Other help included government funding for factory upgrades.

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