Lessons of the Stanley Cup playoffs: Will the high scoring continue? Ewing Theory in Dallas, Winnipeg?
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Greg Wyshynski
The Stanley Cup playoffs can teach us something, whether it’s in success or in failure.
Sometimes these lessons stick. Sometimes they’re lost in time. Sometimes, by the end of the postseason, there are new lessons to learn.
Here are eight hard lessons from the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs through Monday night’s action.
The Leafs are Cup-worthy
Yes, I mean the Stanley Cup. Why do you ask?
Oh right, because it’s the Toronto Maple Leafs. They haven’t played for the Cup since winning it for the final time in 1967, a drought of 56 seasons. They haven’t made the conference finals since 2002. There’s a reason the Stanley Cup is safe inside the Hockey Hall of Fame: There’s no chance of anyone in Toronto ever lifting it.
Every Maple Leafs postseason team drags a half-century of dashed expectations and self-inflicted despair like an anchor. Their most arduous opponent continues to be themselves, when they allow seeds of doubt to blossom into a funeral arrangement for their Stanley Cup aspirations.
So what do we make of a Toronto team that doesn’t allow those seeds to take root? Because this one hasn’t. This one has five wins in seven games over two rounds. This one has members of the Core Five — the Core Four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares, plus Matthew Knies, as ESPN’s P.K. Subban christened them — making clutch plays in big spots. More than anything, this one has the psychological stylings of Craig Berube, and now has proof of concept.
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William Nylander scores 33 seconds into game for Toronto
William Nylander scores less than a minute into Game 1 to give the Leafs an immediate lead over the Panthers.
When the St. Louis Blues won the Stanley Cup with Berube as coach in 2019, they might have been one of the mentally toughest teams to even hoist it. From being last in the NHL on Jan. 2 to the way they moved past calamity and controversies on the way to the championship, the Blues simply moved on in every sense of the phrase.
As assistant coach Larry Robinson put it in 2019: “We’ve been counted out at times all year in certain situations, and every time we were counted out, we came back. We had calls go against us in this series and other series. Most teams might have panicked and did something stupid. But they showed a lot of will and a lot of heart.”
When Berube was hired by Toronto, part of the pitch was that he could bring that stoic postseason focus to a franchise that only knew panic and “doing something stupid.” The theory was tested in the first round and the center held: The old Leafs would have panicked after losing Game 5 at home, dropped Game 6 in Ottawa and then lost back in Toronto for maximum fan anguish. Instead, they won Game 6 convincingly, and the Battle of Ontario was over.
In Game 1 of the second round against Florida, they jumped to a 2-0 lead and then a 4-1 lead, saw Anthony Stolarz leave with an upper-body injury and watched the Panthers rally … only to hold them off for the win.
Maybe this version is built differently. Maybe the harsh education of playoff failures has taught the Core Five how to win. Maybe they have the right coach to reinforce those lessons and block out the noise when adversity hits.
Maybe the Toronto Maple Leafs are Cup-worthy.
Or maybe I will regret this declaration by Game 6 of this series against Florida.
Maybe the playoffs are just high-scoring from now on?
When you think of a Game 7 in the Stanley Cup playoffs, what score do you imagine? Something tightly played with few scoring chances? Where the goalies are the true last lines of defense in a 2-1 nail-biter, in a game in which power plays will be handed out only for an obvious procedural faux pas (puck over the glass, too many men on the ice) or attempted murder?
Yet Game 7 between the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche was a 4-2 game. And Game 7 between the Jets and Blues was a 4-3 game, despite advancing to two overtimes.
That’s part of a larger playoff trend. Through 47 first-round games, there were 307 goals scored for a 6.53 goals-per-game average. If that average held over the next three rounds, the 2024-25 postseason would be the highest scoring playoff since the 1992-93 season (6.84 goals per game).
If the average goals per game finished above six, that would mark three of the past four postseasons in which the mark was achieved. Again, you’d have to go back to 1992-95 to find a similar multiyear trend. In fact, the NHL went 26 seasons between playoffs that had an average goals per game of six or more goals (1995-2022).
Scoring has been up significantly in the NHL over the past eight seasons. Even with two seasons of year-over-year decline in goals per game — we’ve gone from 6.36 goals per game in 2022-23 down to 6.08 in this regular season — the NHL has been over six goals per game in six of the past seven seasons, with a small dip for the 868-game COVID season in 2020-21 (5.87).
One recent factor: Power plays continue to cook with bacon grease. The conversion rate this season was 21.6%, the ninth best all time and the highest since 1985-86 (22.2%). The NHL has had a leaguewide power-play success rate of better than 20% in six of the past eight seasons.
The conversion rate in the first round of the playoffs was 24.9%. That’s up from 20.6% for the entirety of last year’s postseason. Again, this is a multiyear trend: After having only one Stanley Cup postseason with a power play conversion rate above 20% in a 36-season span (1983-2020), the NHL has had a conversion rate higher than 20% in five straight postseasons.
The notion that the playoffs are a completely different sport than the regular season is hard to shake. But the numbers so far indicate that the regular-season goals bonanza has, for the time being, bled over to the postseason.
All future mic-drop performances by a player against his former team will be judged against what Rantanen did to eliminate the Avalanche in the first round.
He had 11 points in the last three games of the series, two of them victories for his Stars. Martin Necas, his frugal replacement in Colorado via a trade with Carolina, had four points in that span and none in Game 7.
Rantanen is the first player in NHL history — regular season or playoffs — to record four-point periods in back-to-back games. He’s the first player with 10 or more points in Games 5-7 in a series. He’s the first player to record a hat trick in the third period of a Game 7 and the first player to record a hat trick against his former team in a Game 7.
He’s in playoff beast mode. He’s a postseason MVP for Dallas. And he’s the kind of player that, quite frankly, the Avalanche could have used in this series.
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Mikko magic! Rantanen nets hat trick in 3rd period
Mikko Rantanen leads the Stars to a comeback win in Game 7 over his former team with a hat trick in the third period.
Whether Rantanen’s agent priced him out of Colorado or the Avalanche simply made a “tough business decision” for more cap flexibility with the hope of replacing him in aggregate, it was Colorado’s decision to trade Rantanen before free agency. If they don’t ship him to Carolina, then he’s on Nathan MacKinnon‘s wing in this series. Granted, some of the other moves Colorado made to better its roster at the trade deadline don’t happen either, but Rantanen would still be in Colorado and wouldn’t have been in Dallas — and that changes everything.
The Hurricanes hopped on Rantanen when he became available in the hopes of signing him long term — which didn’t happen — but also because of his reputation as a playoff stalwart. He had 101 points in 81 career playoff games entering this postseason. That included 25 points in 20 games when the Avalanche won the Stanley Cup in 2022.
Give Carolina credit: The Hurricanes identified and acquired two clutch playoff scorers over the past two seasons that live up to the hype in Rantanen and Jake Guentzel, who was easily the best thing about the Tampa Bay Lightning in their first-round loss to Florida. It’s just that the Hurricanes couldn’t hang on to either, and in Rantanen’s case didn’t even get to see him suit up in the playoffs.
The Hockey Gods gave us Mikko Rantanen against his former teammates in Colorado in the opening round, a player getting his “revenge” on a team that moved on from him. Will they give us Mikko Rantanen against his former teammates in Carolina in the final round, with a team getting its “revenge” on a team that moved on from them?
You never know with those Hockey Gods. They’re cheeky like that.
The key to rallying in Game 7 is missing your second-leading scorer and top defenseman
Admittedly, it’s a small sample size.
But the Stars rallied from a two-goal deficit in the third period of Game 7 to eventually eliminate the Avalanche without injured Jason Robertson (80 points) and Miro Heiskanen (25:10 per game in ice time), who both sat out the series.
Then the Winnipeg Jets rallied from a two-goal deficit in the third period of Game 7 to eventually eliminate the St. Louis Blues without injured Mark Scheifele (87 points), who sat out Games 6 and 7, and Josh Morrissey (24:23 per game in ice time), who played only four shifts in the first period of Game 7 before leaving because of a shoulder injury.
Clearly, not having two of your most important players in the most critical game of the season portends good things.
OK, I understand the counterargument: Perhaps with both of those players in the lineup, there might not have been the need for a Game 7. This is a bit like the “Pete DeBoer is 9-0 in Game 7s” lesson, one that ignores that he’s also 7-15 in Game 6s and 5-7 with a chance to clinch in Game 6. It’s results over process.
But I’d counter that counter with a little Ewing Theory. That was the philosophy popularized by former ESPN Page 2 pundit Bill Simmons that the teams on which Basketball Hall of Famer Patrick Ewing played — Georgetown University and the New York Knicks — would “inexplicably play better when Ewing was either injured or missing extended stretches because of foul trouble.”
Now, Ewing Theory doesn’t apply to every situation. Witness the New Jersey Devils meekly exiting the postseason in five games against Carolina without injured Jack Hughes. But it’s not just about success or failure in a star player’s absence. It’s also an education about how individual players react in their absence. Witness Nico Hischier, who had two goals in his first 17 regular-season games and then had four goals in five playoff games without Jack Hughes (and Luke Hughes, for four games) against Carolina.
Without Heiskanen, who played the most minutes against Nathan MacKinnon‘s line back in January, the Stars relied on Cody Ceci and Esa Lindell to slow him in Game 7. MacKinnon had a goal, but that was it. Without Robertson, Mikko Rantanen stepped up with 11 points in the last three games of their series.
Without Scheifele, captain Adam Lowry skated more than 14 minutes with Kyle Connor and Alex Iafallo on the top line in Game 7, and they had a plus-21 advantage in shot attempts and combined for the double-overtime winner. Cole Perfetti scored three goals with Scheifele out, including two in Game 7.
“Him scoring in St. Louis was big. Then he gets two big ones tonight,” coach Scott Arniel said of Perfetti. “That’s the evolution you want. For a guy that doesn’t have much experience this time of year, I like his response in a heavy, heavy series.”
Without Morrissey, Winnipeg rolled with five defensemen. Neal Pionk and Dylan Samberg played more than 44 minutes each, and Haydn Fleury had the game of his life with 33:02 in ice time.
“What a yeoman’s effort by a defense. They had a different partner every shift. It was guys stepping up. That’s what we needed,” Arniel said.
Of course, getting their second-leading scorer and top defenseman back are really what they need. Maybe in Round 2 …
The fourth time actually isn’t the charm
There were reasons to expect that the Los Angeles Kings could eliminate the Edmonton Oilers in the first round, despite failing to do so for three straight postseasons.
The Oilers were wildly inconsistent defensively this season in front of the goaltending battery of “hopes” and “prayers,” and were missing key defenseman Mattias Ekholm. Edmonton’s hockey demigods Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl had both sat out games near the end of the regular season because of injury.
The Kings themselves seemed primed to shut them down, with the best regular-season goals-against average (2.48) and goaltender (Vezina Trophy finalist Darcy Kuemper) that they’ve brought to the table with the Oilers sitting across from them. The margin between these teams had been razor thin: Since 2023, 10 of the 12 playoff meetings were decided by a one-goal margin or saw the game-winning goal scored in the third period.
But the reason so many people believed the Kings would defeat Edmonton — and 16 of the 26 ESPN pundits did! — is because the fourth time had to be the charm. How could virtually the same teams play in four straight postseasons and have one team win every time?
Well, history tells us that’s how these things go, actually. Since 1968 (a.k.a. the “expansion era”), there has been only one other stretch in which the same two teams faced each other in the opening round for four straight seasons: Montreal faced Boston from 1984 to 1987 — and won every time.
But hey, fourth time’s the charm! Ask the Buffalo Bills, who played the Kansas City Chiefs four times in five postseasons and … lost every time. Now imagine that instead of one Patrick Mahomes there are two of him, and that’s what the Kings faced against the Oilers in perennial MVP candidates Draisaitl and McDavid.
It doesn’t help when, after a promising start with two wins at home, the Kings embarked on a series of self-owns punctuated by the worst coaching performance in the first round by Jim Hiller. His coach’s challenge in Game 3 handed the win to Edmonton, giving the Oilers a power play for delay of game after tying it 4-4. His decisions to sit on leads, his refusal to utilize his depth players … it was a defeatist approach against a team that preys on weakness.
But hey, given the current playoff format, there’s always next year. This time with a new general manager, as this latest playoff dud cost Rob Blake his job in L.A.
Super Mega Lines rule
The key to winning the Stanley Cup is to have contributions from throughout the lineup. Depth can be the decider between hoisting the chalice or getting crushed under the weight of playoff pressure.
All that said: It absolutely rocks when teams decide to load up with three ridiculously talented players to form a Super Mega Line.
The Vegas Golden Knights have one with Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and William Karlsson. Coach Bruce Cassidy deployed them after winger Pavel Dorofeyev missed Game 6 with an injury, sending out his trio of defensive aces to handle Kirill Kaprizov‘s line, and watched them slow down and outscore the Wild’s best offensive unit in the elimination game.
“Everyone stepped up at different parts of the series and found ways to contribute,” Eichel said. “That’s how you win this time of year.”
In limited minutes, the Golden Knights trio had a 67.7% expected goals percentage.
Stone and Eichel started to come alive late in the Minnesota series, with points in each of the last three games, all Vegas wins. Maybe Cassidy keeps them with Karlsson to take on either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. Maybe they’ll have to take on both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The Oilers are no stranger to Super Mega Lines themselves.
Regular-season awards darlings do not portend playoff success
When I’m talking about regular-season awards, I’m not talking about the Presidents’ Trophy, which as we all know is actually cursed. Only eight teams that finished first overall in the NHL since 1986 have gone on to win the Stanley Cup. The last time that happened was Chicago in 2013. Since then, and since the NHL moved to a wild-card playoff format, no team that finished first overall has even played in the Stanley Cup Final, let alone won it, with two teams having lost in the opening round.
Ticktock, Winnipeg.
No, I’m talking about NHL individual awards. Take Cale Makar, the odds-on favorite to win the Norris Trophy this season for the second time in his career. The player who 71.7% of his peers said was the best overall defenseman in the NHL and earned a Ted Lindsay nomination.
Where was that guy in the first round?
The scoresheet said Makar had five points in seven games. Three of those points came in the Avs’ 7-4 Game 6 victory at home. He also had assists in the first two games of the series. But he went scoreless in four games against Dallas, including a meek Game 7 performance in which he was a minus-1, took a third-period tripping penalty and had only one shot on goal.
Dallas did something similar last postseason, as Makar went scoreless in three of their six games and had one assist and two shots in Colorado’s Game 6 loss.
“I’ve got to be a lot better,” Makar said before Game 6. “I think there’s been glimpses where I’ve been pretty good. There’s a lot of things I can do a lot better.”
Something was going on with Makar in that series.
Something’s been going on with Connor Hellebuyck for three series.
Look, he was solid in the third period and the two overtimes in Game 7 against St. Louis, balancing out two iffy goals he gave up earlier in the game. But there’s not a Game 7 without Connor Hellebuyck.
That’s not meant to be a compliment. If he’s anything better than a shooter tutor in any of those three games in St. Louis, then the Jets don’t need Game 7 to move on. But he wasn’t. He was terrible. He was pulled three times, and ended with a .758 save percentage and a 7.24 goals-against average on the road. In the past 40 years of Stanley Cup playoff hockey, that’s the worst save percentage by any goalie on the road, with a minimum of three road games and 50 shots faced.
Over the past three postseasons, Hellebuyck is 1-7 with an .838 save percentage and a 5.19 goals-against average on the road.
Look, I’m happy for Hellebuyck. This was a nightmare round for him, and now he gets a chance at reputation mending against Dallas, along with a chance to reestablish his claim on the Team USA Olympic crease by outdueling Jake Oettinger, who is very much ready to claim it himself.
But along with that, his Game 7 sigh-of-relief win means that we won’t have to suffer through the supreme awkwardness of a goalie who helped cost his team a first-round playoff series for the third season winning the NHL’s award for best goaltender for the second year in a row — and potentially also being named its most valuable player.
The Capitals’ front office is just showing off now
Look at the top 10 scorers for the Washington Capitals after the first round against the Montreal Canadiens.
That’s where the list of homegrown Caps ends.
Dylan Strome (nine points) was a castoff from the Chicago Blackhawks. Anthony Beauvillier, who had five points, is on his sixth team in three seasons, having been acquired from the Pittsburgh Penguins at the deadline. Brandon Duhaime was a free-agent signing and given a career high of 13:21 in average ice time.
Jakob Chychrun and Pierre-Luc Dubois were “buy-low” trade acquisitions last offseason, with Dubois’ appeal at nearly toxic levels due to his contract and his crashing out in Los Angeles. Andrew Mangiapane was another trade addition. Trevor van Riemsdyk was a free-agent pickup in 2020 who blossomed in Washington.
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Caps score empty-net goal, celebrate series win vs. Canadiens
Brandon Duhaime scores an empty-net goal for the Capitals that secures their Game 5 win over the Canadiens.
I’ve written before about Washington’s stunning retool around Ovechkin, the deftness of the front office and the way the organization develops and enhances talent. It’s been on display so far in the playoffs. Frankly, it’s underappreciated.
The Capitals are significant underdogs against Carolina. These two teams are way more evenly matched than the odds suggest, with Washington having a significant advantage in having home ice.
“We just know the ins and outs of a lot of their systems because we play the same thing,” Capitals coach Spencer Carbery said. “It just becomes two teams [deciding] who can do it better and who can do it more consistently for a long period of time.”
Continue to underestimate the Capitals at your own peril, Eastern Conference. They’ve got depth, chemistry, goaltending and, if all else fails, the greatest goal scorer in NHL history on the power play.
Sports
Never-before-seen history? A battle of villains?! The best World Series matchup for every type of fan
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David Schoenfield
It’s still early in the postseason, but it’s never too soon to start to dream about some of the possible World Series matchups we could get later in October.
With eight teams left, there are 16 possible Fall Classic scenarios — a matchup for seemingly every type of fan to enjoy. Well, unless you were really hoping for that Colorado Rockies–Chicago White Sox or Pittsburgh Pirates–Los Angeles Angels World Series. If that’s the case, you probably need to rethink your dreams.
Here are eight of the most exciting potential matchups — one of which a majority of fans might strongly disagree with including. There is something for everyone, from history to star power to longstanding droughts. Let’s get to it.
If you like No. 1 seeds making it: Blue Jays vs. Brewers
The Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers were together in the AL East from 1977 through 1993, when the Brewers moved to the AL Central (and then to the National League in 1998).
The only year they finished 1-2 was 1992, when the Blue Jays won the division title by four games. The Brewers went 15-2 at one stretch in September to close the gap to two games with two games left to play, but they lost both while the Blue Jays won theirs. The franchises have had a limited trade history, although former longtime Brewers general manager Doug Melvin (still a front office adviser for the club) is an Ontario native and member of the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame.
Five players to fill out your Immaculate Grid: Paul Molitor, Lyle Overbay, Buck Martinez, Roy Howell, Matt Stairs
Combined years without a championship: 75
Why this would be fun: Both teams finished with the best record in their league — well, the Jays tied with the New York Yankees but won the tiebreaker to get the top seed — and since the wild-card era began in 1995, the nature of baseball’s postseason makes it rare for the top seeds to meet in the World Series. It has happened just five times:
If you’re a traditionalist and want the most deserving teams to make it, this is the matchup for you. Even if you’re not impressed with Toronto’s run differential (third best in the American League), the Jays have been excellent since late May. Since May 27, they had the second-best record in the majors — behind just the Brewers.
Best potential drama: Blue Jays’ defense versus Brewers’ defense. These are two of the best defensive teams in the majors, a key reason they ended up with top records. The Blue Jays are led by infielder Ernie Clement, who tied for the MLB lead with 22 defensive runs saved while having started at all four infield positions; second baseman Andres Gimenez, who is playing shortstop with Bo Bichette injured; and center fielders Daulton Varsho and Myles Straw, who combined for 25 DRS. The Brewers are solid across the board and loaded with speed in the outfield with Jackson Chourio (whose status for Game 2 is uncertain after an MRI on his right hamstring came back inconclusive), Blake Perkins and Sal Frelick.
If you like left-handed pitching: Yankees vs. Phillies
The Yankees last won the World Series in 2009 — when they beat the Philadelphia Phillies, who were trying to defend the title they won in 2008, the last time they won it all. The Yankees took the 2009 title in six games with Hideki Matsui hitting .615 (8-for-13) with three home runs and eight RBIs to win MVP honors. The teams also met in the 1950 World Series, when the Phillies’ “Whiz Kids” were the surprise pennant winners in the National League. The Yankees swept in four games.
The obvious current tie-in is Phillies manager Rob Thomson, who served as third-base coach and bench coach with the Yankees from 2008 to 2017 before joining the Phillies as their bench coach in 2018 after the Yankees hired Aaron Boone over Thomson to replace Joe Girardi as manager.
Five players to fill our Immaculate Grid: Bobby Abreu, Oscar Gamble, Kenny Lofton, Andrew McCutchen, Charlie Hayes
Combined years without a championship: 33
Why this would be fun: Lefty pitching against lefty power. The Yankees feature lefties Max Fried and Carlos Rodon, who combined for 37 wins in the regular season, while the Phillies run out Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo and Ranger Suarez. The last team to win the World Series with at least four games started by lefties was Atlanta in 2021, but two of those were openers. The Boston Red Sox had three southpaw starters when they won in 2018 (Chris Sale, David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez), as did the Dodgers when they lost in 2017 (Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill and Alex Wood), but prior to the Red Sox, the last team to win with three lefty starters was the 1996 Yankees with Andy Pettitte, Jimmy Key and Kenny Rogers.
What would make this an intriguing World Series, however, is the left-on-left matchups. The Yankees have righty slugger Aaron Judge but also led the majors in home runs by left-handed batters, while the Phillies, with left-handers Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, ranked fourth. The Yankees’ splits were even, but Boone did bench lefties Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ben Rice and Ryan McMahon against lefty Garrett Crochet in favor of right-handed hitters.
Best potential drama: Judge! Giancarlo Stanton! Schwarber! Harper! If those names don’t get you excited, go watch pickleball.
If you like a never-before-seen historical matchup: Tigers vs. Dodgers
Of the 16 original franchises that existed when the American League formed in 1901, there have been 44 out of a possible 64 World Series matchups (including franchise relocations). This is the most surprising one not to have occurred because the Dodgers have played in 22 World Series and the Detroit Tigers in 11. Tigers-Phillies would be the other original 16 matchup that could be crossed off this year.
Five players to fill out your Immaculate Grid: Kirk Gibson, Max Scherzer, Gary Sheffield, Enos Cabell, John Shelby
Combined years without a championship: 41 … that’s 41 for the Tigers and zero for the Dodgers
Why this would be fun: You think the Dodgers might like revenge on A.J. Hinch, Houston’s manager in 2017 when the trash-can-banging Astros beat L.A. in seven games to win the World Series? Yeah, most of the guys from that matchup are gone, but Clayton Kershaw is still here, as is L.A. manager Dave Roberts. And though the Dodgers have won two World Series since then, you know they think they were wronged in 2017.
Aside from that, we would get two classic franchises, two classic uniforms, maybe one last World Series appearance from the retiring Kershaw and the chance for the Dodgers to become the first repeat champions since the 2000 Yankees.
Best potential drama: Tarik Skubal versus Shohei Ohtani. The best pitcher in the AL versus the best player in the world. If the baseball gods are in an especially compassionate mood, they will give us Skubal starting against Ohtani. May the baddest man on the planet win.
If you like a drought-buster World Series: Mariners vs. Brewers
You want history? We have history. The Brewers were born in 1969 as the Seattle Pilots, but the Pilots went bankrupt before the start of the 1970 season and a Bud Selig-led group purchased the team (whose equipment trucks were literally stranded in Utah after leaving spring training waiting on where to go). Indeed, the Brewers’ blue and gold colors are a remnant of the Pilots’ original colors.
The Seattle Mariners came aboard as an expansion franchise in 1977 after the City of Seattle and King County sued the AL for breach of contract. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the teams had a heated rivalry that led to a massive brawl at the Kingdome in 1990. Lately, they have been frequent trade partners. Brewers ace Freddy Peralta came over from the Mariners as a minor leaguer in exchange for Adam Lind, one of Jerry Dipoto’s first trades as Mariners GM.
Five players to fill out your Immaculate Grid: Gorman Thomas, Chris Bosio, Richie Sexson, Mike Cameron, Yuniesky Betancourt
Combined years without a championship: 104
Why this would be fun: First off, this is the matchup that gives us the longest combined title drought, with neither franchise having won a World Series (at least Milwaukee has the Braves, who won in 1957, but even that was 68 years ago). The Pilots tie-in is certainly interesting, but mostly this is fun because you can make the argument that the biggest story in the AL this season was Cal Raleigh bashing 60 home runs and the Mariners winning 17 of 18 in September to capture their first division title since 2001, and that the biggest story in the NL was the Brewers finishing with the best record in the majors, winning more games than the superstar-laden Phillies or Dodgers.
The contrast in styles would be intriguing as well. The Mariners — despite playing in a pitcher’s park — finished third in the majors in home runs. It wasn’t just Raleigh, as Eugenio Suarez hit 49 (between the Diamondbacks and Mariners) while Julio Rodriguez (32), Randy Arozarena (27) and Jorge Polanco (26) each topped 25. The Brewers were second in the majors in batting average and stolen bases while ranking fourth in lowest strikeout rate. Don’t, however, view the Mariners as a one-dimensional team: Though they can’t match Milwaukee’s speed up and down the lineup, they did finish third in the majors in stolen bases as Arozarena, Rodriguez and Josh Naylor each swiped at least 30 bags.
Best potential drama: Mariners hitters versus late-game heat. Unsurprisingly, considering his 60 blasts, Raleigh led the majors with 34 home runs against fastballs, and improving against four-seamers up in the zone was a key to his big season. But the Brewers’ bullpen can really dial it up. Abner Uribe throws a 99 mph sinker. Trevor Megill throws 99 mph. Jacob Misiorowski, if he’s in the pen and not starting, throws 99 and reaches triple digits. Aaron Ashby is a lefty with 97 mph gas. Nick Mears sits at 95 with a wipeout slider.
If you like cold weather: Tigers vs. Cubs
These teams have met in four World Series — although the last one was 80 years ago. The Chicago Cubs won in 1907 and 1908, defeating the Ty Cobb-led Tigers. Detroit won in 1935 and 1945. Aside from that, this would give us another original 16 matchup, and those always seem a little special. As long as these two teams have been around, they haven’t had much intertwining history. They didn’t even make a trade with each other from 1987 to 2004.
Five players to fill out your Immaculate Grid: Bill Madlock, Luis Gonzalez, Keith Moreland, Richie Hebner, Kyle Farnsworth
Combined years without a championship: 50
Why this would be fun: The cold weather joke aside (anybody who was at Games 3 and 4 in Detroit in the 2012 World Series can attest to the possibility of needing to wear their winter parka in late October in Detroit), this looks as if it might be the ultimate battle of the bullpens. So, no, not exactly 1907 when Cubs starters Jack Pfiester, Ed Reulbach, Orval Overall and Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown reeled off four consecutive complete games to defeat the Tigers. This might be the ultimate second-guessing matchup as Cubs manager Craig Counsell would have to know how to deal with Detroit’s two lefty sluggers, Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene, while Hinch would churn through his relievers in the non-Skubal starts.
Best potential drama: If he gets healthy, Cubs rookie Cade Horton could get his postseason moment. Horton was one of the best starters in the majors in the second half, going 8-1 with a 1.03 ERA in 12 games while allowing a .154 average and just three home runs in 61⅓ innings. He allowed more than one run just once. Horton, however, missed the wild-card series with a right rib fracture and is still out for the NLDS against the Brewers.
Aside from that, we would get Javier Baez, who was part of Chicago’s 2016 title-winning (and drought-breaking) team, going against the team he spent his first eight seasons with, as well as Cubs starter Matthew Boyd facing a Detroit team he was with for seven seasons.
If you like Joe Carter highlights: Blue Jays vs. Phillies
This would be a rematch of the underrated 1993 Fall Classic, which featured the wildest game in World Series history — a 15-14 slugfest in Game 4 that the Blue Jays won — and, of course, Joe Carter’s walk-off, three-run homer against Mitch Williams in Game 6.
Five players to fill out your Immaculate Grid: Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen, Jose Bautista, Jayson Werth, Juan Samuel
Combined years without a championship: 49
Why this would be fun: Well, all the highlight clips from the 1993 World Series would be worth it by themselves — not just Carter hitting the biggest home run of his life but the star-studded rosters of both teams that included Rickey Henderson, Roberto Alomar, Paul Molitor, John Olerud, Curt Schilling, John Kruk, Lenny Dykstra and Dykstra’s chewing tobacco.
Aside from that, we would have the Blue Jays in the World Series for the first time since those back-to-back championships in 1992-93 and the Phillies trying to finally win with this roster that is aging and has Schwarber heading into free agency in the offseason. We also would get one of the best uniform matchups in the sport. The Phillies, in my opinion, have the best uniform set in the majors, while the Jays have the classic baby blues to go with their traditional home whites. Do not underestimate the value of a good uni matchup.
Oh, and both fan bases are among the loudest in the sport — Phillies crowds are notoriously loud from the first pitch of games, although Blue Jays fans probably broke the noise meter back in 2015 when Jose Bautista hit that grand slam against the Rangers.
Best drama: Jeff Hoffman facing his former teammates. Last year with the Phillies, Hoffman was an All-Star who had a dominant regular season before losing two games in the NLDS against the Mets. In 2025, he had an uneven season as the Blue Jays’ closer, allowing 15 home runs — the second most of any reliever — but saving 33 games. Hoffman facing Schwarber and Harper with the game on the line would be the reverse tension of Williams facing Carter in 1993.
If you like center fielders: Mariners vs. Cubs
The Cubs owe a little favor to the Mariners for ending their World Series curse in 2016. Mike Montgomery, whom Chicago acquired from Seattle at the trade deadline in 2016 for Daniel Vogelbach and Paul Blackburn, recorded the final out of the Game 7 victory — certainly one of the most obscure pitchers to get the last out of a World Series.
Lou Piniella managed the Mariners from 1993 to 2002 and the Cubs from 2007 to 2010, making the playoffs four times with Seattle and twice with Chicago, but he couldn’t guide either team to a World Series. The two teams shared another manager in Jim Lefebvre.
Five players to fill out your Immaculate Grid: Jamie Moyer, Goose Gossage, Steve Henderson, Gary Matthews, Heathcliff Slocumb
Combined years without a championship: 57
Why this would be fun: Julio Rodriguez and Pete Crow-Armstrong. They were the two best center fielders this season — and two of the most exciting players in the sport — with Rodriguez ranking fifth among all position players in Baseball Reference WAR and Crow-Armstrong ranking 11th. They also ranked 13th and 15th in FanGraphs WAR. Both finished with 30-30 seasons.
Both provide power, speed and highlight-reel catches in center field. J-Rod got hot in the second half: He hit .290/.341/.560 after the All-Star break with 18 home runs and 45 RBIs in 65 games. Crow-Armstrong looked like the NL MVP in the first half when he had an .847 OPS with 25 home runs and 27 stolen bases before hitting just .216 after the break.
Best potential drama: The Mariners winning the World Series? That’s all the drama some of us need.
If you like villains: Yankees vs. Dodgers
Lots of history between these two teams, with 12 World Series matchups, including last year when the Dodgers won in five games.
Five players to fill out your Immaculate Grid: Rickey Henderson, Willie Randolph, Robin Ventura, Kevin Brown, Darryl Strawberry
Combined years without a championship: 16 (long years for the Yankees)
Why this would be fun: Haters are going to hate, and it would certainly be understandable if you’re not a Yankees or Dodgers fan considering the purchasing power of these two franchises. Indeed, though the Yankees held the “villain” title among the general population of baseball fans for the longest time, the Dodgers have usurped them in recent years with their slew of high-priced free agents (Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Freddie Freeman, Tanner Scott) and big extensions (Mookie Betts, Tyler Glasnow). Heck, even Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner complained in the spring that it is “difficult” for other teams to keep up with the Dodgers — though he didn’t receive much sympathy.
Still, a rematch would be … dare we say … let’s put this as gently as possible … entertaining! Sure, some of you wouldn’t be able to handle it, but it would be the first World Series rematch since 1977-78, between the … yes, Yankees and Dodgers (the Yankees won both times). The Dodgers would be trying to become that first repeat champion since the Yankees in 2000 to further cement their historical legacy. The Yankees would be trying to end that — for them — long World Series drought since 2009. There would be big stars all over the field. And considering both teams have had bullpen issues, perhaps some late-game drama that could turn this showdown into a seven-game epic.
Best potential drama: Judge vs. Ohtani. This didn’t quite materialize in last year’s World Series when the two MVPs didn’t do much at the plate — Judge hit .222 with one home run (in the fifth game) and three RBIs while Ohtani hit just .105 with no home runs and no RBIs. Of course, now that Ohtani is pitching, it sets the stage for the sport’s two biggest stars going directly head-to-head. That, my baseball friends, is October drama at its best.
Sports
Our hottest early MLB playoff hot takes: From one pitch deciding October to the Jays averaging … how many runs per game?!
We’re one week into the 2025 MLB playoffs, with two games having now been played in all four division series matchups.
In the small-sample-size world of October baseball, it might seem like that means we’ve seen enough to know a lot. But the reality for a sport that combines 162-game seasons with the chaos of short playoff series is: Things can change in a hurry this time of year.
As we do early in every MLB regular season, we asked our MLB experts to go all-in on one thing they’ve noticed by giving us their boldest prediction for the rest of the postseason based on what they’ve seen so far.
Some of our predictions are quite bold, whereas others took a milder approach. But all of them have a chance of becoming smokin’ hot by the time the World Series trophy is raised this month — or ending up freezing cold.
The themes that we’ll all be talking about
All four division series will go five games
The division series was introduced 30 years ago, and only once, in 2012, did all four of them go the distance. It’ll happen again this year — even though three of the four have already begun with a 2-0 lead.
The gap among the eight remaining playoff contenders feels smaller this year than it has in quite a while, especially with arguably the two best, the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers, squaring off so early. The New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs are perfectly capable of winning back-to-games at home. The series between the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, which began with a split in Seattle, seems primed to extend into a fifth game. And though the Phillies have their backs against the wall, coming off two straight losses in Philadelphia, they have the ability to take two in a row at Dodger Stadium — heck, they did it less than a month ago. — Alden Gonzalez
One pitch will decide October
The team that wins the World Series will be the team that has the best differential in performance between throwing splitters and hitting them. Do I know if this will happen? Definitely not! But the proliferation of splitters so far in the postseason has been staggering.
TruMedia has pitch-type data going back to 2008. The percentage of pitches classified as splitters has ranged from 0.2% (2016) to 3.1% (2023). So far this year: 5.7%. The leading practitioners: the Toronto Blue Jays, by far, at 25.9%, mostly thanks to Kevin Gausman and the amazing Trey Yesavage. Incidentally, they were also by far the best-hitting team against splitters in the regular season (.346 WOBA). Guess this means the Jays are going to win it all. — Bradford Doolittle
The success of the splitter this October will make it the most-talked-about pitch in the spring
The eye-opening postseason performances of Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman and Roki Sasaki will serve as jet fuel for the rising popularity of the split-fingered fastball. There was already growing interest in the splitter throughout the 2025 season, thanks to the success of the likes of Hurston Waldrep. Then, along came Yesavage and Gausman and their diving splitters, neutralizing the powerful Yankees: In the first two games of the ALDS, New York was 0-for-22 with 13 strikeouts in at-bats ending with a splitter. The Yankees swung at splitters 39 times and missed 24 times. In a copycat industry, you can bet a ton of pitchers will be tinkering with splitters before next spring, just as hundreds of pitchers adopted cutters because of Mariano Rivera. — Buster Olney
The stars who will shine all postseason
Cal Raleigh will outhomer every other 60-home run hitter in the postseason — combined
The Mariners’ star slugger just became the fifth player to reach the postseason on the heels of a 60-homer season. The others?
1927 Babe Ruth: 2 HR in 4 games
1961 Roger Maris: 1 HR in 5 games
1998 Sammy Sosa: 0 HR in 3 games
2022 Aaron Judge: 2 HR in 9 games
Raleigh didn’t leave the yard in the first two games of the ALDS against Detroit, but he did collect four hits while Julio Rodriguez, batting behind him, supplied the power. Given Seattle’s balance, depth and October path, it’s easy to envision a long run — and with it, at least half a dozen blasts from the Big Dumper. — Paul Hembekides
Jackson Chourio will become the 10th player to win both LCS and World Series MVPs
Why doubt the Milwaukee Brewers now? They’ve enjoyed a magical run to this point and have looked great at the onset of the division series. Chourio has been quite the table-setter — he had three hits in two innings in Game 1 — and he’s one of the game’s budding superstars. This October is his breakout party. — Tristan Cockcroft
Roki Sasaki, Jhoan Duran and Andres Munoz will post nothing but zeros
This trio — two relief aces and a starter-turned-closer for the playoffs — won’t give up an earned run in either the LDS or LCS. Munoz and Duran were two of the top relievers in the sport this year, and Sasaki started looking like one in the past couple of weeks, which my colleague Jeff Passan broke down in his dive into how the Dodgers fixed their flamethrower. — Kiley McDaniel
Roki Sasaki Clayton Kershaw will record the final out of the 2025 World Series
As Dodgers manager Dave Roberts goes game to game in the postseason trying to figure out exactly which relievers he can trust in a big moment, how about this for the ultimate scenario: Kershaw, in his final pitch in the majors, gets that final out. Maybe it’s a save. Maybe it’s a blowout. Maybe the game goes extra innings. Maybe it’s an act of desperation after Roberts uses Roki Sasaki — who’s looking more and more like Roberts’ closer — earlier in the game. And that final pitch? A big, looping 72 mph curveball. — David Schoenfield
The teams that we’ll be watching all October
The Blue Jays will average 10 runs per game in the playoffs
Well, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and pals are certainly off to a great start, but why stop after two blowout wins over the Yankees? The Blue Jays hammered Luis Gil, Max Fried, Will Warren and Luke Weaver. Will Carlos Rodon, Cam Schlittler (maybe, if the series goes to Game 4) and whichever pitchers other remaining teams throw at the Blue Jays do better? Probably, but Vlad Jr., Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Ernie Clement and eventually Bo Bichette are ready to make history! — Eric Karabell
Toronto won’t lose a game until the World Series
The Blue Jays have enough pitching to win every game on the way to the World Series. So much so that Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt weren’t even needed in the ALDS and were left off the roster. They might be in the ALCS, but even then, Toronto will have choices to make for its rotation. The emergence of rookie Trey Yesavage has changed the calculus for the Jays on the mound, giving them more options than most teams at this time of year.
Add in the potential return of Bichette, Toronto’s great home record (tops in the AL) and a potential long series between the Tigers and Mariners on the other side of the AL bracket, and the Blue Jays are set up for a potential undefeated run to the Fall Classic. Their smoking hot offense might get them there on its own. — Jesse Rogers
The Yankees will send the ALDS back to Toronto
As underwater as they look, the Yankees have a pathway back into this series despite a 2-0 deficit. Shane Bieber, the Blue Jays’ Game 3 starter, is going to fill up the strike zone — and has been homer-prone in recent starts. And with the short porch in right field calling, the Yankees’ left-handed bats will answer. Getting to Game 4 brings Cam Schlittler, who, in his first postseason start, threw eight shutout innings and punched out 12 without walking a batter. Although the Blue Jays are ball-in-play merchants, Schlittler’s stuff is overwhelming enough to quiet them and make for a Game 5 for the ages at Rogers Centre. — Jeff Passan
The Dodgers are going to 2019 Washington Nationals their way through the postseason
Washington rode five starting pitchers and three relievers all the way from the do-or-die wild-card game through its World Series Game 7 victory over the heavily favored Houston Astros. Led by starters Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez, eight pitchers combined to pitch 141⅔ of the Nationals’ 153 playoff innings. Joe Ross, who got a spot start in Game 5 of the World Series, was the fifth starter Washington used.
Those Nationals happened to topple the Dodgers in the NLDS.
This year’s Dodgers, like those Nationals, boast a deep rotation and a shaky bullpen. Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Emmett Sheehan, Roki Sasaki and Alex Vesia should absorb the bulk of the October workload. Of those eight pitchers, only Vesia was primarily a reliever during the regular season. The Nationals proved a version of the formula can work. Six years later, it’s the best recipe for the Dodgers to win a championship. — Jorge Castillo
The Dodgers will sweep their way to a repeat
With 10 hitters who hit double-digit home runs during the regular season, the Dodgers simply don’t have to worry about that one bat going cold. And outside of Yamamoto, none of their pitchers has thrown over 125 innings — but they have such a depth in their rotation that they’ve been able to push some of their starters to the bullpen in October.
It’s all hands on deck in any game they need it. — AJ Mass
The 2025 World Series champion won’t come out of the Dodgers-Phillies NLDS
Ever since the bracket for this postseason was set — even before the Dodgers advanced out of the wild-card series to make the meeting official — there has been a thought percolating that Los Angeles vs. Philadelphia was this year’s true World Series (or at least NLCS) playing out in the division series round. Well, I’m here to tell you that is not a foregone conclusion.
Yes, the Phillies and the Dodgers possess the most talent of any teams in the sport — but that didn’t stop the Brewers from going a combined 10-2 against Philly and L.A. during the regular season. And how about those Blue Jays (the team two of my colleagues predicted very big things for above), or the Mariners, who definitely have the it factor on their side, or the Tigers, who have the best pitcher on the planet (excluding at-bats vs. Jorge Polanco) on theirs.
I’m going to play the percentages here and say someone other than the Phillies or Dodgers will be the last team standing. — Dan Mullen
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