Cardinals have failed to reach the required two-thirds majority in their first vote to choose a new pope in the Vatican.

Black smoke emerged from the Sistine Chapel chimney at 8pm, indicating they had been unable to agree.

Crowds in St Peter’s Square had been kept waiting longer than expected and most were hoping for the white smoke that signals the arrival of a new pontiff.

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There was only one vote today, but from Thursday the 133 cardinals will hold two votes in the morning and two in the afternoon until at least 89 pick the same name.

The conclave started on Wednesday afternoon after cardinals swore an oath of secrecy and the doors of the Sistine Chapel were shut to the outside world.

They have given up their phones and are cut off from the outside world until a new pope is chosen.

The most recent conclaves – for Pope Francis in 2013, Pope Benedict XVI in 2005 and Pope John Paul II in 1978 – all lasted less than three days.

The voting takes places beneath Michelangelo’s legendary frescoes and the chapel – normally a packed tourist site – has installed tight security.

It’s been swept for listening devices, signal jammers have been installed, and its windows have been covered to protect from spy drones.

Lead seals have also been put on 80 doors at the conclave site to stop people going in and out.

The cardinals will sleep and eat at the Casa Santa Marta, a guest house within the Vatican where Pope Francis lived, until the process is over.

They cardinals began Wednesday by taking mass, before a solemn two-by-two procession into the Sistine Chapel in the afternoon.

Dresses in their red garb, they chanted the Litany of the Saints and Veni Creator – a hymn imploring the saints to help them find a new leader.

They then each came forward to take an oath of secrecy, placing a hand on the gospel and also promising not to allow any outside influence.

The final piece of theatre was the Latin declaration “Extra omnes” (“everyone else out”) and Archbishop Diego Ravelli, an aide to the late pope, pushed the the doors shut.

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Conclave is beginning 16 days after Pope Francis’s death, which came after a long hospital stay with pneumonia.

Many experts believe it will come down to a choice between someone who will continue his progressive approach and a more conservative candidate.

Among the favourites is Luis Tagle, a cardinal who could become the first Asian pontiff, and who’s been likened to Pope Francis.

Two Italians are also seen as strong contenders: The Archbishop of Bologna, Matteo Zuppi, and the so-called “deputy pope” Pietro Parolin.

The pope’s identity is normally revealed soon after the white smoke emerges, when he steps onto the balcony to wave to the crowds in St Peter’s Square.

It’s hard not to view the motivating factor behind Vladimir Putin’s latest unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine as one of timing.

Starting today, the three-day truce coincides with Russia’s lavish celebrations to mark the 80th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany.

The main event will be a huge military Victory Day parade on Red Square on Friday, where the Russian president will be welcoming more than two dozen world leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dismissed the ceasefire proposal as theatre, and a cynical ploy by Mr Putin to protect his parade, rather than human lives.

It’s certainly true that the Kremlin wants to put on a good show – not just for its guests but for the rest of the world.

The arrival of so many heads of state, including the leaders of Brazil, Egypt and Vietnam – is a major PR coup for Moscow, and a chance to show the West that its efforts to isolate Russia have failed.

Announcing the guestlist earlier this week, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov claimed it was “an indicator of Russia’s growing authority in the world”.

With that in mind, a Ukrainian attack on the parade would be seriously embarrassing for Mr Putin.

In theory it could happen – Kyiv hasn’t committed to the ceasefire, instead calling for a 30-day pause, and has said it can’t guarantee the safety of foreign dignitaries who are visiting Russia – but I think it’s highly unlikely.

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It would risk damaging relations with Donald Trump, whose stance regarding peace talks appears to have shifted recently in Kyiv’s favour.

But Ukraine is still doing its best to disrupt the preparations here. Multiple drone attacks over the past few days have forced Moscow’s airports to repeatedly suspend operations, just as foreign leaders have been flying in.

Serbia’s president Aleksandar Vucic reportedly took 10 hours to reach Moscow after his flight had to stopover in Azerbaijan. While more drones targeted Moscow just before Mr Xi touched down on Wednesday afternoon.

It’s an attempt by Ukraine to humiliate Mr Putin, and to convey to his guests how much it disapproves of their visit, which it regards as a show of support for Russia’s invasion.

The papal conclave is beginning, where 133 cardinal electors are tasked with choosing the new leader of the Catholic Church.

The successful candidate will need to secure two-thirds of the votes, with cardinals not able to emerge from the Vatican – which is sealed off from outside influences – until a new pope has been chosen.

Predicting the next pontiff is extremely difficult. Pope Francis himself was not supposed to be pope – and did not want to be, as he revealed after being elected.

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Vatican watchers currently forecast this conclave will be more unpredictable than ever. The role could be handed back to an Italian, the first since John Paul I nearly 50 years ago. Or, for the first time in history, the next pontiff could be from Africa or Asia.

The question remains if the next pope will be more progressive on matters like LGBTQ+, women in the church and war, which is how Francis led, or more conservative, as was Francis’s predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI.

Here are some of the main contenders who could be voted to replace Pope Francis.

Pietro Parolin, 70
Nationality: Italian

If the next pontiff is Italian, Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state, is widely considered the frontrunner.

The secretary of state is considered the pope’s second in command, with the role often referred to as the “deputy pope”.

Cardinal Parolin has been in the role since 2013 and has since become a well-known and powerful figure at the Vatican.

In 2018 he brokered a landmark deal with Beijing which allowed both the government and church to jointly appoint bishops – a highly controversial move – and also played a part in the Holy See regaining relations with communist Vietnam.

A softly spoken man, Cardinal Parolin is thought to be more moderate in his beliefs. In the past he has defended the Vatican’s power over local church leaders, saying they cannot make decisions that would end up affecting all Catholics.

He has also condemned the legalisation of same-sex marriage in many countries as “a defeat for humanity” and criticised efforts in Germany to bless same-sex unions.

Read more on Pietro Parolin here

Matteo Zuppi, 69
Nationality: Italian

Cardinal Zuppi, currently the archbishop of Bologna, is another likely candidate, and is seen as one of the most progressive in the upcoming conclave.

Born and bred in Rome, Cardinal Zuppi had a close relationship with Pope Francis, and is sometimes referred to as “Italian Bergoglio”, meaning the Italian version of the late pope who was born Jorge Mario Bergoglio.

Also similar to Francis, Cardinal Zuppi was known as a “street priest” who focuses on migrants and the poor, caring little about pomp and protocol. He goes by the preferred name of Father Matteo, and in Bologna sometimes uses a bicycle rather than an official car.

He was appointed by Francis as the papal envoy for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, concentrating on efforts to repatriate (send back) children who Ukraine says have been deported to Russia or Russian-held territories.

On LGBTQ+ issues, he wrote the introduction of the Italian version of Building a Bridge, a book by American Jesuit Rev James Martin that focuses on the church’s need to improve its outreach to the LGBTQ+ community.

Read more about Matteo Zuppi here

Luis Tagle, 67
Nationality: Filipino

On paper, Cardinal Tagle, often referred to as the “Asian Francis”, seems to have all the boxes ticked to qualify him to be a pope. If elected he would be the first pontiff from Asia.

He has decades of pastoral and administrative experience, working as bishop of Imus and then as archbishop of Manila before being made cardinal by Benedict in 2012. He is thought to be more progressive in his beliefs.

Cardinal Tagle also headed the Vatican’s Caritas Internationalis – a confederation of more than 160 Catholic relief, social service, and development organisations around the world – between 2015 and 2022 before coming to Rome permanently.

However, his tenure at Caritas was not without controversy, and some have questioned his management skills.

In 2022, Francis ousted the entirety of the Caritas management, including demoting Tagle. The Holy See said an outside investigation had found “real deficiencies” in management that had affected staff morale.

Read more about Luis Tagle here

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 66
Nationality: Congolese

Cardinal Besungu is one of Africa’s most outspoken Catholic leaders and a more conservative candidate.

He is currently archbishop of Kinshasa – the capital of the Democratic Republic of the Congo – the archdiocese which has the largest number of Catholics on the continent. If elected, he would be the first pontiff from Africa.

Across the continent, he is seen as deeply committed to Catholic orthodoxy.

Last year, he signed a statement on behalf of the bishops conferences of Africa and Madagascar, refusing to follow Pope Francis’s declaration allowing priests to offer blessings to same-sex couples.

However, he has promoted interfaith tolerance, an important factor on a continent where religious divisions between Christians and Muslims are common.

Peter Erdo, 72
Nationality: Hungarian

Known by his peers as a serious theologian, scholar and educator, Cardinal Erdo is a leading contender among conservatives.

He has served as the archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest in Hungary since 2002 and was made a cardinal by John Paul II the following year. He participated in two conclaves, in 2005 and 2013, for the selection of Benedict and Francis.

Despite being a conservative, he is also seen to be pragmatic and never clashed openly with Francis, unlike other tradition-minded clerics.

However, he did go against Pope Francis’s call for churches to take in refugees, saying this would amount to human trafficking, a move that seemingly aligned himself with Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

He speaks Italian, German, French, Spanish and Russian, which could possibly help him thaw relations between the Catholic and Russian Orthodox churches after divisions emerged after the outbreak of the Ukraine war.

Cardinal Erdo opposes same-sex unions and has also rejected suggestions that Catholics who remarry after getting divorced should be able to receive communion.

Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60
Nationality: Italian

Cardinal Pizzaballa is the current head of the Vatican’s Latin office in Jerusalem and has spent more than three decades in the city.

He has devoted himself to the Middle East and most recently the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

In October 2023, he offered himself in an exchange for the return of kidnapped Israeli children, and last Christmas celebrated mass at the Holy Family Church in Gaza.

After Donald Trump proposed the US take over the Gaza Strip, Cardinal Pizzaballa’s office released a statement opposing the plan, saying the people who live in Gaza must “not be forced into exile”.

He is thought to be a more moderate candidate, but his precise views on other issues remain unknown.

At the age of 60 he is also one of the youngest frontrunners, making him less likely to be selected.

Age may be a big factor in determining the next pope, with many electors favouring older candidates so they do not have one leader in the role for an extensive period of time.

Peter Turkson, 76
Nationality: Ghanaian

Cardinal Turkson combines a long pastoral background of tending to congregations in Ghana with hands-on experience of leading several Vatican offices.

He made history as the first cardinal of the West African state – a region where the Catholic Church is rapidly growing.

As head of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace – the Vatican body that promotes social justice, human rights and world peace – he was one of Benedict’s closest advisors on issues such as climate change and drew much attention by attending conferences such as the World Economic Forum.

Like many cardinals from Africa, he leans towards conservative beliefs, however, he has opposed the criminalisation of gay relationships in African countries including his native Ghana.

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Jean-Marc Aveline, 66
Nationality: French

Cardinal Aveline is known for his easy-going nature, his readiness to crack jokes and his ideological proximity to Pope Francis, especially on immigration and the church’s relations with Islamic leaders.

He is also a serious intellectual, with a doctorate in theology and a degree in philosophy and is believed to be a more progressive candidate.

If he became pope he would be the first French pontiff since the 14th century.

One drawback for Aveline is that he understands but does not speak Italian, which could be seen as a major limitation for a job that also carries the title Bishop of Rome and requires a lot of familiarity with Roman heritage.

Anders Arborelius, 75
Nationality: Swedish

Cardinal Arborelius, who is currently the bishop of Stockholm, is also a contender for the papacy.

He converted to Catholicism at the age of 20 in a Scandinavian country with an overwhelmingly Protestant population and one of the most secularised societies in the world.

Thought to be a more moderate candidate, he is a staunch defender of church doctrine, particularly against allowing women to be deacons or to bless same-sex couples.

However, like Pope Francis, he favours welcoming immigrants into Europe.

Joseph Tobin, 72
Nationality: American

Although it is unlikely that the conclave will elect an American pope, if they were to, Cardinal Tobin is the most likely candidate.

As archbishop of Newark, he received praise for his handling of a scandal that saw former Cardinal Theodore McCarrick removed from the priesthood after being found guilty of sexual misconduct against children and adults.

Due to his openness toward the LGBTQ+ community, he is thought to be more progressive in his beliefs. In 2017 he wrote that “in too many parts of our church LGBT people have been made to feel unwelcome, excluded, and even shamed”.

Away from the church he is known for his weightlifting workouts.

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Jose Tolentino de Mendonca, 59
Nationality: Portuguese

Cardinal Mendonca, who is the head of the Vatican’s office for culture and education, is another possible candidate.

Known as a biblical scholar and an educator, he was very close to Pope Francis and would be a progressive candidate in the conclave.

At 59 he is one of the youngest members of the College of Cardinals and despite holding numerous positions of authority, may lack administrative skills required for the pontiff role.

Cristobal Lopez Romero, 72
Nationality: Spanish

Cardinal Romero, the current archbishop of Rabat in Morocco, has dedicated himself to the wellbeing of migrants and dialogue with the Muslim faith.

He is a strong advocate for interfaith dialogue, an indicator he may be a more progressive candidate, and considers migration to be the “consequence of many problems” including poverty, war, famine and climate change.

Reporting by Lauren Russell, news reporter and newsgathering by Simone Baglivo, Europe producer and Hanna Schnitzer, specialist producer.