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TORONTO — Florida Panthers forward Sam Bennett denied any “ill intent” after he elbowed Maple Leafs‘ goaltender Anthony Stolarz in the head during Game 1 of their second-round Eastern Conference playoff series on Monday.

Bennett collided with Stolarz midway through the second period on a Florida power-play opportunity. There was no penalty called by the official standing nearby. Stolarz remained briefly in the net before going to Toronto’s bench and vomiting. He exited from there and was later taken from Scotiabank Arena to a local hospital.

Sources confirmed to ESPN on Tuesday that the NHL would not be assessing any supplemental discipline against Bennett for the hit. Florida did not make Bennett available to media following Florida’s 5-4 loss on Monday, but Bennett defended his actions in a Tuesday news conference.

“I’m just taking a puck to the net,” he said. “I didn’t even know that we made contact until after. And I’m on the power play. I’m trying to score. I’m taking the puck to the net. That’s really all there was to it.”

Bennett became good friends with Stolarz when they were teammates last year in Florida, when Stolarz backed up for Sergei Bobrovsky throughout the Panthers’ Stanley-Cup-winning season. After Monday’s game, Bennett reached out to Stolarz and said the goalie responded.

The uproar over Bennett’s play has historical roots. When the Leafs and Panthers met in a 2023 second-round series, Bennett drove Toronto forward Matthew Knies into the boards, causing a concussion. Last year, Bennett was suspended in another second-round series against Boston for punching now-teammate Brad Marchand.

“I can understand why people react [the way they have],” Bennett said. “Because Stolly is injured. When your starting goalie gets injured, people are going to be upset. Looking back at the video, the contact that was made was, in my opinion, it’s really just a bump. There was no forceful action. I mean, I’m trying to score. The last thing in my mind is thinking about elbowing him in the head. When it happened, I didn’t even realize that I made contact.”

Stolarz, who made eight saves on nine shots prior to the hit, was replaced after by backup Joseph Woll. The two netminders shared Toronto’s crease for much of the regular season, but Stolarz has been the Leafs’ number one in the postseason, going 4-2 with a .902 SV% and 2.19 GAA in Toronto first-round series win over Ottawa.

Stolarz did not practice with the Leafs on Tuesday, but the team had breakfast with him and coach Craig Berube did not rule him out as the team’s starter in Game 2 on Wednesday.

“I’ll probably find out later [on Tuesday],” he said.

If Stolarz can’t play, the Leafs will turn again to Woll, with Dennis Hildeby backing up. Woll was 27-14-9 in the regular season with a .909 SV% and 2.73 GAA.

The Leafs had a 4-1 lead against Florida when Woll entered on Monday before the Panthers pushed back to nearly the close the gap. Bennett sees part of his role in helping Florida advance towards another Cup championship is playing a “hard style of hockey” and not letting outside conversations act as a deterrent.

“People get upset about things and worked up, but I try to just tune that out,” he said. “I’m just trying to play my game, just trying to help the team win and push that noise away. I play the game hard. I think it needs to be played hard in the playoffs.”

Bennett admitted he “feels bad” that Stolarz had to be hospitalized because of the collision while maintaining a lack of any premeditation of what was about to happen in the game.

“It’s never my intent [to injure],” he said. “At the same time, hockey is a physical game and it’s part of the game.”

Panthers’ coach Paul Maurice was animated in his own defense of Bennett and how he has been treated in the wake of Stolarz’s injury.

“I’ve seen every hit that Sam Bennett’s thrown since he was 12 years old on TV this morning,” Maurice said. “There was a hit 2½ years ago that [the media has] shown 4,000 times. There was a parking ticket seven years ago that I think made the video. He’s got the puck, he’s on the power play, he’s going to the net. I understand. Call the fire department. Put your hair out. Let’s move on. Please.”

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No ‘clear-cut’ Cup favorite as Panthers eye No. 3

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No 'clear-cut' Cup favorite as Panthers eye No. 3

Bookmakers across the sportsbook marketplace don’t see a consensus Stanley Cup favorite as the Florida Panthers gear up to attempt a very rare NHL three-peat.

The Carolina Hurricanes, Colorado Avalanche and Edmonton Oilers are the co-favorites (+800) at ESPN BET, with the Dallas Stars, Vegas Golden Knights and Panthers at +900, and the Tampa Bay Lightning at +1000. However, no major American sportsbook has the same combination of solo or co-favorites, with Florida and Vegas taking the top billing at some shops.

“The way I look at it, there’s no real clear-cut, short favorite,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. “This year, it’s more wide open at the top, and then you have a whole second tier of teams that are in that 20-to-40 range. There’s another 10 teams there. Could the Stanley Cup winner come from there? Absolutely. But the top tier has eight teams that we believe will contend for the title.”

The last preseason Stanley Cup favorite to win it all was Colorado (+600) in the 2021-22 season.

The Panthers opened as one of the favorites to win the Cup immediately following their second straight championship. They were +600 solo favorites by mid-September following offseason contract extensions for Aaron Ekblad, Brad Marchand and Sam Bennett — despite offseason surgery for superstar Matthew Tkachuk, who is expected back before the new year.

However, a training camp knee injury to captain Aleksander Barkov, which is expected to keep him out for the entire regular season, if not longer, derailed Florida’s Stanley Cup lines at most books. Several operations immediately dropped the team’s championship odds, with ESPN BET briefly lengthening them to +1000.

Still, action on the Cats has remained robust, with ESPN BET reporting its highest portion of bets (17.1%) and handle (21.4%) backing them to three-peat, while BetMGM says the team’s 13.8% handle is the second-highest in the market. Some bookmakers, such as Karry Shreeve, the head of hockey at Caesars Sportsbook, refused to even dethrone the Panthers as favorites, noting that Barkov and Tkachuk’s injuries have more effect on the team’s regular-season odds.

“We’re not ready to drop them in price significantly, at least for the Stanley Cup, just because I’m not convinced who’s going to fill their spot [in the playoffs],” Shreeve told ESPN. “So long as Florida’s getting into the playoffs again, as far as right now, not knowing anything else, they’re still, to me, the favorite. Not by a lot, but still a favorite, and not a team we’re willing to push out in price just yet.”

Several sportsbooks, including DraftKings and ESPN BET, are instead high on the Hurricanes, even though bettors are backing them at a relatively low clip in terms of both the number of tickets and money wagered.

“Carolina is one of the most consistently dominant teams we have seen in recent years, having recouped some talent over the summer as they look to make another deep run,” ESPN BET senior director Adrian Horton said by email. “Patrons will likely have their postseason struggles in mind, but it took the Panthers at full steam to eliminate them. We fully expect Carolina to be back battling in the playoffs.”

In the favorites tier, bettors are more focused on the Avalanche, who have garnered the third-highest handle at BetMGM and ESPN BET. Beyond the first tier, many patrons are keying on the Toronto Maple Leafs (+1600), who have taken the most tickets and money at BetMGM.

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Expert picks for the 2025-26 NHL season: Stanley Cup, division winners, awards

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Expert picks for the 2025-26 NHL season: Stanley Cup, division winners, awards

The 2025-26 NHL season begins Tuesday with a tripleheader on ESPN: Chicago BlackhawksFlorida Panthers at 5 p.m. ET (including the Stanley Cup banner-raising), Pittsburgh PenguinsNew York Rangers at 8 p.m., and Colorado AvalancheLos Angeles Kings at 10:30 p.m.

But we’re looking beyond those contests.

Will the Panthers three-peat as Stanley Cup champions? Which teams will finish the season atop the division standings? And which players will take home the major individual awards?

We’ve gathered our cross-platform ESPN hockey family together to predict the winners of each division, along with the Stanley Cup champion and the players who will win all of the hardware.

Dive deep on all 32 teams
Lapsed fan’s guide to the season
Bold predictions for every club

Fantasy hockey hub page
Goalie mask guide for 2025-26

Atlantic Division

Sean Allen: Maple Leafs
John Buccigross: Lightning
Stormy Buonantony: Lightning
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Maple Leafs
Sach Chandan: Lightning
Meghan Chayka: Lightning
Ryan S. Clark: Lightning
Ray Ferraro: Lightning
Emily Kaplan: Lightning
Tim Kavanagh: Senators
Rachel Kryshak: Lightning
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Lightning
Steve Levy: Maple Leafs
Vince Masi: Lightning
Victoria Matiash: Lightning
Sean McDonough: Lightning
AJ Mleczko: Lightning
Mike Monaco: Lightning
Arda Öcal: Lightning
T.J. Oshie: Lightning
Kristen Shilton: Maple Leafs
P.K. Subban: Lightning
John Tortorella: Panthers
Bob Wischusen: Lightning
Greg Wyshynski: Lightning

Totals: Lightning (19), Maple Leafs (4), Senators (1), Panthers (1)


Metropolitan Division

Sean Allen: Devils
John Buccigross: Hurricanes
Stormy Buonantony: Hurricanes
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Hurricanes
Sach Chandan: Devils
Meghan Chayka: Hurricanes
Ryan S. Clark: Hurricanes
Ray Ferraro: Hurricanes
Emily Kaplan: Hurricanes
Tim Kavanagh: Devils
Rachel Kryshak: Hurricanes
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Hurricanes
Steve Levy: Devils
Vince Masi: Hurricanes
Victoria Matiash: Devils
Sean McDonough: Rangers
AJ Mleczko: Hurricanes
Mike Monaco: Hurricanes
Arda Öcal: Devils
T.J. Oshie: Capitals
Kristen Shilton: Hurricanes
P.K. Subban: Capitals
John Tortorella: Devils
Bob Wischusen: Hurricanes
Greg Wyshynski: Hurricanes

Totals: Hurricanes (15), Devils (7), Capitals (2), Rangers (1)


Central Division

Sean Allen: Stars
John Buccigross: Avalanche
Stormy Buonantony: Avalanche
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Avalanche
Sach Chandan: Avalanche
Meghan Chayka: Avalanche
Ryan S. Clark: Avalanche
Ray Ferraro: Stars
Emily Kaplan: Avalanche
Tim Kavanagh: Avalanche
Rachel Kryshak: Stars
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Stars
Steve Levy: Stars
Vince Masi: Avalanche
Victoria Matiash: Stars
Sean McDonough: Stars
AJ Mleczko: Stars
Mike Monaco: Avalanche
Arda Öcal: Stars
T.J. Oshie: Stars
Kristen Shilton: Stars
P.K. Subban: Wild
John Tortorella: Wild
Bob Wischusen: Avalanche
Greg Wyshynski: Avalanche

Totals: Avalanche (12), Stars (11), Wild (2)


Pacific Division

Sean Allen: Oilers
John Buccigross: Oilers
Stormy Buonantony: Golden Knights
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Golden Knights
Sach Chandan: Golden Knights
Meghan Chayka: Golden Knights
Ryan S. Clark: Golden Knights
Ray Ferraro: Golden Knights
Emily Kaplan: Golden Knights
Tim Kavanagh: Golden Knights
Rachel Kryshak: Oilers
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Golden Knights
Steve Levy: Kings
Vince Masi: Golden Knights
Victoria Matiash: Golden Knights
Sean McDonough: Oilers
AJ Mleczko: Golden Knights
Mike Monaco: Oilers
Arda Öcal: Golden Knights
T.J. Oshie: Golden Knights
Kristen Shilton: Golden Knights
P.K. Subban: Oilers
John Tortorella: Golden Knights
Bob Wischusen: Golden Knights
Greg Wyshynski: Oilers

Totals: Golden Knights (17), Oilers (7), Kings (1)


Stanley Cup

Sean Allen: Panthers
John Buccigross: Hurricanes
Stormy Buonantony: Golden Knights
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Jets
Sach Chandan: Avalanche
Meghan Chayka: Avalanche
Ryan S. Clark: Stars
Ray Ferraro: Golden Knights
Emily Kaplan: Panthers
Tim Kavanagh: Stars
Rachel Kryshak: Stars
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Golden Knights
Steve Levy: Kings
Vince Masi: Avalanche
Victoria Matiash: Golden Knights
Sean McDonough: Oilers
AJ Mleczko: Avalanche
Mike Monaco: Oilers
Arda Öcal: Maple Leafs
T.J. Oshie: Oilers
Kristen Shilton: Stars
John Tortorella: Devils
Bob Wischusen: Panthers
Greg Wyshynski: Avalanche

Totals: Avalanche (5), Golden Knights (4), Stars (4), Panthers (3), Oilers (3), Hurricanes (1), Jets (1), Kings (1), Maple Leafs (1), Devils (1)


Hart Trophy (MVP)

Sean Allen: Kirill Kaprizov
John Buccigross: Connor McDavid
Stormy Buonantony: Jack Eichel
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Connor McDavid
Sach Chandan: Nathan MacKinnon
Meghan Chayka: Nathan MacKinnon
Ryan S. Clark: Kirill Kaprizov
Ray Ferraro: Nikita Kucherov
Emily Kaplan: Nathan MacKinnon
Tim Kavanagh: Nathan MacKinnon
Rachel Kryshak: Connor McDavid
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Nikita Kucherov
Steve Levy: Connor McDavid
Vince Masi: Connor McDavid
Victoria Matiash: Nikita Kucherov
Sean McDonough: Connor McDavid
AJ Mleczko: Connor McDavid
Mike Monaco: Connor McDavid
Arda Öcal: Connor McDavid
T.J. Oshie: Connor McDavid
Kristen Shilton: Auston Matthews
P.K. Subban: Kirill Kaprizov
John Tortorella: Kirill Kaprizov
Bob Wischusen: Connor McDavid
Greg Wyshynski: Nathan MacKinnon

Totals: McDavid (11), MacKinnon (5), Kaprizov (4), Kucherov (3), Eichel (1), Matthews (1)


Art Ross Trophy (points leader)

Sean Allen: Connor McDavid
John Buccigross: Connor McDavid
Stormy Buonantony: Nikita Kucherov
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Connor McDavid
Sach Chandan: Nikita Kucherov
Meghan Chayka: Connor McDavid
Ryan S. Clark: Mitch Marner
Ray Ferraro: Connor McDavid
Emily Kaplan: Nathan MacKinnon
Tim Kavanagh: Nikita Kucherov
Rachel Kryshak: Connor McDavid
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Nikita Kucherov
Steve Levy: Kirill Kaprizov
Vince Masi: Connor McDavid
Victoria Matiash: Nikita Kucherov
Sean McDonough: Connor McDavid
AJ Mleczko: Mitch Marner
Mike Monaco: Connor McDavid
Arda Öcal: Connor McDavid
T.J. Oshie: Nikita Kucherov
Kristen Shilton: Nathan MacKinnon
P.K. Subban: Connor McDavid
John Tortorella: Kirill Kaprizov
Bob Wischusen: Connor McDavid
Greg Wyshynski: Nathan MacKinnon

Totals: McDavid (12), Kucherov (6), MacKinnon (3), Marner (2), Kaprizov (2)


Rocket Richard Trophy (goals leader)

Sean Allen: Auston Matthews
John Buccigross: Auston Matthews
Stormy Buonantony: Connor McDavid
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Auston Matthews
Sach Chandan: Leon Draisaitl
Meghan Chayka: Leon Draisaitl
Ryan S. Clark: Nikita Kucherov
Ray Ferraro: Leon Draisaitl
Emily Kaplan: Leon Draisaitl
Tim Kavanagh: Kirill Kaprizov
Rachel Kryshak: Leon Draisaitl
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Auston Matthews
Steve Levy: Leon Draisaitl
Vince Masi: Brayden Point
Victoria Matiash: Auston Matthews
Sean McDonough: Leon Draisaitl
AJ Mleczko: Auston Matthews
Mike Monaco: Auston Matthews
Arda Öcal: Auston Matthews
T.J. Oshie: Leon Draisaitl
Kristen Shilton: Auston Matthews
P.K. Subban: Jake Guentzel
John Tortorella: Connor McDavid
Bob Wischusen: Auston Matthews
Greg Wyshynski: Leon Draisaitl

Totals: Matthews (10), Draisaitl (9), McDavid (2), Kucherov (1), Kaprizov (1), Point (1), Guentzel (1)


Norris Trophy (best defenseman)

Sean Allen: Cale Makar
John Buccigross: Cale Makar
Stormy Buonantony: Shea Theodore
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Cale Makar
Sach Chandan: Zach Werenski
Meghan Chayka: Cale Makar
Ryan S. Clark: Cale Makar
Ray Ferraro: Quinn Hughes
Emily Kaplan: Zach Werenski
Tim Kavanagh: Quinn Hughes
Rachel Kryshak: Cale Makar
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Cale Makar
Steve Levy: Quinn Hughes
Vince Masi: Quinn Hughes
Victoria Matiash: Quinn Hughes
Sean McDonough: Cale Makar
AJ Mleczko: Quinn Hughes
Mike Monaco: Cale Makar
Arda Öcal: Cale Makar
T.J. Oshie: Cale Makar
Kristen Shilton: Quinn Hughes
P.K. Subban: Lane Hutson
John Tortorella: Quinn Hughes
Bob Wischusen: Cale Makar
Greg Wyshynski: Rasmus Dahlin

Totals: Cale Makar (12), Hughes (8), Werenski (2), Theodore (1), Hutson (1), Dahlin (1)


Vezina Trophy (best goaltender)

Sean Allen: Jake Oettinger
John Buccigross: Jake Oettinger
Stormy Buonantony: Jake Oettinger
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Connor Hellebuyck
Sach Chandan: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Meghan Chayka: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Ryan S. Clark: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Ray Ferraro: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Emily Kaplan: Jake Oettinger
Tim Kavanagh: Jacob Markstrom
Rachel Kryshak: Igor Shesterkin
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Steve Levy: Jake Oettinger
Vince Masi: Linus Ullmark
Victoria Matiash: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Sean McDonough: Igor Shesterkin
AJ Mleczko: Jake Oettinger
Mike Monaco: Jake Oettinger
Arda Öcal: Andrei Vasilevskiy
T.J. Oshie: Connor Hellebuyck
Kristen Shilton: Igor Shesterkin
P.K. Subban: Andrei Vasilevskiy
John Tortorella: Sergei Bobrovsky
Bob Wischusen: Igor Shesterkin
Greg Wyshynski: Andrei Vasilevskiy

Totals: Vasilevskiy (9), Oettinger (7), Shesterkin (4), Markstrom (1), Ullmark (1), Bobrovsky (1)


Calder Trophy (rookie of the year)

Sean Allen: Alexander Nikishin
John Buccigross: Ivan Demidov
Stormy Buonantony: Ivan Demidov
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Ivan Demidov
Sach Chandan: Michael Misa
Meghan Chayka: Ivan Demidov
Ryan S. Clark: Ivan Demidov
Ray Ferraro: Ivan Demidov
Emily Kaplan: Zeev Buium
Tim Kavanagh: Jimmy Snuggerud
Rachel Kryshak: Ivan Demidov
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Ivan Demidov
Steve Levy: Zeev Buium
Vince Masi: Jimmy Snuggerud
Victoria Matiash: Jimmy Snuggerud
Sean McDonough: Ivan Demidov
AJ Mleczko: Zeev Buium
Mike Monaco: Ivan Demidov
Arda Öcal: Yaroslav Askarov
T.J. Oshie: Ryan Leonard
Kristen Shilton: Ivan Demidov
P.K. Subban: Matthew Schaefer
John Tortorella: Ryan Leonard
Bob Wischusen: Ivan Demidov
Greg Wyshynski: Alexander Nikishin

Totals: Demidov (12), Buium (3), Snuggerud (3), Nikishin (2), Leonard (2), Misa (1), Askarov (1), Schaefer (1)

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Breaking down Aaron Judge’s early playoff performance: A productive start or another October disappointment?

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Breaking down Aaron Judge's early playoff performance: A productive start or another October disappointment?

In case you hadn’t heard, Aaron Judge entered the 2025 MLB playoffs with a checkered history of October results compared with his stellar regular-season résumé.

For his career, Judge’s OPS is 250 points lower in the postseason than in the regular season (the average regular-season-to-playoff OPS dropoff for hitters in 2024 was 18 points), and his struggles on the biggest stage have become a talking point nearly every October.

After his .184/.344/.408 slash line during the Yankees’ 2024 postseason run, Judge is hitting objectively well in the playoffs this year — posting a 1.024 OPS and collecting an MLB-leading eight hits in his first five games. But he isn’t hitting for much power, with just one extra-base hit (a double) in 21 plate appearances, and his team enters Game 3 of the American League Division Series on the brink of elimination.

As the Yankees try to battle back against the Toronto Blue Jays, we dug deep into each of Judge’s first 18 at-bats (and three walks) to see what we can learn about his October so far.

How is Judge being pitched in the playoffs? Is it different from the regular season? Why isn’t he hitting for power? Is it bad luck? And where could his postseason go from here — if the Yankees can stick around long enough for him to find his home run stroke?


How left-handed pitchers are approaching Judge

Judge vs. lefties in playoff career: 42 PA, .400/.500/.714, 19% K, 17% BB, 3 HR
Judge vs. lefties this postseason: 8 PA, .500/.500/1.125, 13% K, 0% BB, 0 HR

Each pitcher has different strengths, but there are some clear trends that lefties are following when attacking Judge this month.

The game plan goes something like this: throw hard stuff (four-seam fastballs, sinkers, cutters) on his hands, largely down, then mix in softer stuff to keep him honest, locating those pitches down and on the corners — where he is least likely to do damage. If you miss, miss outside of the zone, not toward the middle. Don’t be afraid to nibble around the outside of the zone and live to fight another day.

That’s a solid plan against almost any hitter, but in this case, it means going hard inside against a 6-foot-7 slugger whose relative weaknesses will always include covering the plate against good stuff.

It’s telling that the two softer-throwing lefties Judge faced (Boston’s Connelly Early and Toronto’s Justin Bruihl) threw two fastballs out of their 10 total pitches and both missed off the plate inside, one missing so far inside that it hit Judge. Garrett Crochet, Aroldis Chapman, and Brendon Little were much more aggressive, likely because of their better fastballs.


How right-handed pitchers are approaching Judge

Judge vs. righties in playoff career: 241 PA, .192/.304/.409, 34% K, 13% BB, 13 HR
Judge vs. righties this postseason: 13 PA, .400/.538/.400, 23% K, 15% BB, 0 HR

Judge has faced eight different righties this postseason, and those pitchers vary vastly in their pitch mix and the quality of their stuff, but right-handed pitchers seem to be using a decision tree to craft their game plan against him.

If the righty’s top offspeed pitch is a breaking ball (slider, sweeper, curve) then he is throwing that as often as he can while locating it down and away — and mixing it with fastballs inside to keep Judge from leaning over the plate. Here’s a look at Judge vs. breaking balls only.

If the righty’s top secondary pitch is a splitter — such as Toronto’s Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage in the first two games of the ALDS — then he is mixing splitters and sliders away with some fastballs that are mostly targeted inside.

But no matter their style, one common goal for all of these pitchers is not to make a mistake over the plate!


How does Judge’s regular-season history factor into this plan?

Though Judge’s October struggles have become a narrative over his career, any team setting up its pitching strategy for a series will game plan for the two-time American League MVP with a career 1.028 OPS and 368 home runs rather than treating him like the player with a .223 average and .787 OPS in 63 career playoff games.

And that starts with keeping the ball away from where Judge can do the most damage.

During the 2025 regular season, Judge faced 176 pitches (essentially one pitch every four plate appearances) that qualified as in the middle-middle zone — or, in more general speak, right down the middle.

Against those pitches, Judge had a 1.630 OPS and 15 homers, both figures were second best in baseball.

This is where Judge ranked, among all qualified hitters in MLB this season, measured by xwOBA:

  • Second best vs. middle-middle pitches

  • Best vs. pitches in the heart of the zone (a larger part of the strike zone than middle-middle)

  • Best per pitch vs. fastballs, second in overall value

  • Best per pitch and overall vs. sinkers

  • Best per pitch and overall vs. cutters

Imagine getting this scouting report as a pitcher before you face Judge in a playoff game. I wouldn’t throw him anything down the middle, either.


How Judge is handling pitches he should crush

Now for the twist: Judge has faced seven pitches in the playoffs that were in the middle-middle zone (one pitch every three plate appearances, so slightly more frequently than the regular season).

So far this postseason, Judge hasn’t put one of those pitches in play. He swung at five — fouled off four and whiffed at another — and took two middle-middle pitches for strikes.

This isn’t a trend I tried to identify in my research because the small sample means one home run on a center-cut ball would poke a hole in it, but in watching all of his playoff at-bats, I made too many of this sort of note: “target was [zone direction] corner, missed target to the middle of the zone, [nothing bad happened to the pitcher].”

So, yes, it’s a small sample, but October baseball is won and lost on small samples. Judge is getting pitched roughly how he was in the regular season (actually even a bit more hitter-friendly), but he hasn’t replicated his regular-season damage, especially when it comes to punishing mistakes thrown down the middle. Judge has performed basically the same (chase rate, xwOBA, etc.) as the regular season against noncenter-cut pitches, so not taking advantage of these mistakes is accounting for his dip in power in the playoffs this year.

Over 162 games, anyone putting up an OPS over 1.000 is having a very productive season — even if it’s all coming from singles and a few doubles — but the heat has been turned up with the Yankees facing elimination, and the offense needs to deliver, with Judge at the heart of it. This team needs Judge to punish mistakes and create some souvenirs or he is at risk of having another October disappointment added to his résumé.

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