Let’s deal, first of all, with the question many of you will have: after today’s reduction to 4.25% will there be more interest rate cuts to come?

Today, the Bank of England did nothing to sway you – or the financial markets that bet on such things – from the assumption that after today’s quarter percentage point cut there will be further reductions in the cost of borrowing.

Indeed, right now, financial markets assume the Bank will cut UK interest rates down to 3.5% by early next year, and the Bank didn’t contradict that today.

Money blog: What interest rate cut means for your money

But (this being economics, there’s always a “but”) if there was one theme that overarched the Bank’s latest set of forecasts, it was that it’s becoming fiendishly difficult to predict the future.

Take tariffs. In theory, the Bank thinks they’ll actually be much less damaging than many had assumed, with the total impact not enough to push the UK into recession.

But that’s based on a few important assumptions, chief among them that Donald Trump doesn’t re-impose the reciprocal tariffs announced on 2 April – despite the fact that he’s explicitly said they are only temporarily paused. It was based on the assumption that the UK wouldn’t get a trade deal with the US, an assumption that was already out of date by the time the document was published.

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No one really has a clue

The Bank’s forecasts are, in other words, even more uncertain than usual.

Perhaps that helps explain why the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee had a rare three-way split in their vote this month, with two members voting to leave rates on hold, two voting to cut them by half a percentage point, and the remaining five carrying the decision and reducing them by 0.25%.

Now, even taking this uncertainty into account, there are a few things one can take from today’s Bank of England news, and the update from its American counterpart, the Federal Reserve, yesterday.

While tariffs are expected to push inflation up in the US, they are expected to push inflation down in the UK. The upshot is while the Federal Reserve is pausing its interest rate cuts, UK rates are coming down.

Every Bank of England forecast is, by definition, a historic document. Such things take time to model and write so, by the time they come out, they are always a little bit out of date. But never has this been more true of a Bank forecast than the one published today.

The big picture, however, is that no one really has a clue. No one knows what Donald Trump will do next. No one knows what the impact of his tariffs will be on the UK or, indeed, elsewhere. No one knows what this all spells for inflation or unemployment.

A 101-year-old veteran, who has never publicly talked about her wartime experience, wants the VE Day 80th anniversary events to be a chance to reflect on the “unnecessary” conflicts we see today that she says are driven by “pure greed”.

Pauline Alexander was one of five siblings who all served in the Second World War – with three of them among the four family members she lost during the conflict.

She was encouraged to talk about what she went through by her daughter after she saw the Royal British Legion appealing for more surviving veterans to tell their stories.

80 years ago, as Sir Winston Churchill declared there was finally victory in Europe and the celebrations erupted in London, Ms Alexander was in Chelmsford with her mother and sister-in-law.

“I was at home on leave,” she said.

“We joined in the celebrations, the singing and dancing. It was very exciting. Everyone in Chelmsford had turned out, well those who were still there. But it was very… how can I put it? A feeling of what next… life had changed completely.

“We started [the war] as a family of seven, we ended as three.”

Like so many, Ms Alexander’s war was punctuated by loss.

Her father died while running the family surgical instrument business in 1943, and three of her brothers were killed.

Peter Kipling, an Army dispatch rider, died in a bike accident delivering a message to the war office in London. He was about to be sent to the front in preparation for D-Day.

Guy and Bernard Kipling, who were twins, were both navigators on RAF bombers.

They were shot down in 1941 and 1943, their bodies never came home.

All three are remembered on Peter’s gravestone in Broomfield Cemetery.

Looking at photographs of her brothers, Ms Alexander quietly said: “That’s just how I remember them all, just like that.”

When I asked her how she felt when she heard they had died serving their country, she replied: “In those days of war you just had to accept these things.

“It was bound to happen at some time or other. Bernard served on Whitley bombers, and they were known as flying coffins.”

Ms Alexander’s story about her family, and the clerical work she did in the Women’s Royal Air Force (WRAF) from 1942-1946, including at bomber command at RAF Waddington, only came to light because of the Royal British Legion appeal.

She said she previously just thought: “It was our duty to do what we could and that was life, everyone was losing family… it was just something that happened.

“All part of life and living.”

I asked her how her mother reacted when she said she wanted to sign up.

Ms Alexander replied: “She said yes. It would do me good. I was getting too spoilt at home.”

She added: “If my brothers were in, I had to be in to do my bit too.”

Her mother, Rosa Kipling, was also a remarkable woman.

She lived until 105 and was recognised for bravery in the first honours list to feature MBEs in 1918, after surviving an explosion during the First World War in a munitions factory.

It is no wonder then that her children were all so committed to do their bit.

The sense of service and the acceptance of the sacrifices that had to be made now feel more important than ever, especially in the context of ongoing global conflicts.

That was something that Ms Alexander was keen to talk about from her home in March, Cambridgeshire, where she will be watching today’s events.

Read more:
New photos show how wartime films were made
Why King’s message to veterans is very personal
VE Day 80th anniversary celebration in pictures

Asked why she believes it is so important that we take time to remember today, she said: “Because it’s all part of history, and history is very important, because we learn from history.

“When you think of all the conflicts that are going on now and how it’s all unnecessary in a sense, just pure greed. Because what they went through [in the Second World War] was absolute hell.”

As I reflected with her that they truly are an amazing generation, Ms Alexander simply replied: “Yes, there’ll never be another one like it.”

The King and Queen have paid their respects to Britain’s war dead at a service to mark the 80th anniversary of VE Day.

The royal couple were among 2,000 people – including 78 veterans – who attended the ceremony at Westminster Abbey in London.

The thanksgiving service, which included music and readings, paused at midday for a national two-minute silence in memory of those who died.

Other attendees included the Prince and Princess of Wales, along with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and some of his Downing Street predecessors, including David Cameron and Boris Johnson.

The King laid a wreath, which featured the message “We will never forget”, at the grave of the Unknown Warrior, followed by the Prince of Wales.

At their side, watching from his wheelchair, was veteran Ken Hay, 99, who served in the infantry regiment.

Actor Josh Dylan read a letter from Lance Corporal Fredrick Burgess to his seven-year-old son Freddie, written while he was serving in Italy.

He quoted the serviceman, whose granddaughter Susan was among those in the abbey, as writing: “When I do come home, and it will not be very long now, I’m going to buy you something extra specially nice for being such a good boy.”

Lance Corporal Burgess also described the rain in Italy and how his small tank, which he named Freddie II after his son, had been damaged with a “whacking big hole” by a bomb.

Dylan revealed: “Seven months after writing this letter, Lance Corporal Burgess was killed.”

An excerpt of wartime prime minister Sir Winston Churchill‘s 1945 victory speech, in which he declared the war in Europe was over, was also played.

His great-great-grandson Alexander Churchill, aged 10, lit a peace candle and later read a prayer for “peace in Europe and across the world”.