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The IIHF under-18 world championships are done, and the draft lottery is also in the rearview mirror, so it is time for the next big board for the 2025 NHL draft in June.

Unlike the earlier iteration, these rankings are not based solely on model outputs. They more heavily include viewings, insight from scouts and an evaluation of how the play styles and skills will translate to the NHL level.

Quite a few players shot up the draft board because of elevated projections, rarity of package and upside. Some fell down the draft board related to concerns of translatable skills, discrepancy in projections and concerns about having a “B” game.

There is such variance this year, with a consensus top two, along with two more players below them … and then all bets are off. There are a few pathways for teams in the top 10 to choose from: a high-floor, lower-upside player or a unicorn-upside, high-risk player. Each of those is weighted in the rankings, and by no means is this a mock draft.

With all that considered, these are the top 32 players, along with some honorable mentions, for the 2025 NHL draft.


1. Matthew Schaefer
D, Erie Otters (OHL)

The Erie Otters defender is projected to become a true No. 1 cornerstone for years to come. A dynamic presence at both ends of the ice, the 6-2 blueliner skates with ease and uses his agility to shut down opponents in one-on-one situations, while creating offense with excellent rush capabilities.

Across the league, executives and scouts view him as a future elite NHL defenseman and a foundational piece for a championship-caliber roster. With the ability to control play from the blue line, play tough matchups and run a power play, Schaefer has the tools to become a top-10 defender in the league.


2. Michael Misa
C, Saginaw Spirit (OHL)

Misa, granted exceptional status in the OHL, delivered one of the most remarkable goal-scoring seasons in recent memory, netting 62 goals in just 65 games. He confidently projects to be a top-line forward with the potential to consistently exceed a point-per-game pace at the NHL level.

Misa’s offensive instincts are elite. He processes the game at a high level and executes at high speed. He’s NHL ready, and has the potential to become an elite top-line center if his development continues on its current path.

His two-way game took a major step this season and, when paired with his explosive speed and offensive firepower, Misa profiles as a foundational piece around which to build a Stanley Cup contender.


3. James Hagens
C, Boston College Eagles (NCAA)

A skilled center, Hagens projected to be a top-line center or one of the NHL’s best second-line centers. He brings a good work rate with excellent speed and two-way ability that should see him effectively drive play at the NHL level. The professional details of his game, such as supporting the puck, winning battles and defensive anticipation, will ease the transition to the NHL while he finds his offensive gear.

Hagens likely needs another season at Boston College to further develop his decision-making and add a more dynamic offensive gear to become a top-line NHL center. His understanding of spacing and his anticipation ability stand out among his peers. There’s a mix of Clayton Keller and Matty Beniers in him in terms of playmaking skill and two-way ability.


4. Porter Martone
RW, Brampton Steelheads (OHL)

The 6-3 right winger projects as a high-end second-line player with a competitive streak reminiscent of Corey Perry and Tom Wilson. A big, physical forward, Martone is a dual-threat offensive player with ability to score on his own and facilitate. His competitive nature will make him an effective agitator, and he will physically impose himself on opponents. He needs to hone his competitiveness and physicality to increase his effectiveness, and adjust his skating posture to become a more efficient skater.

His unique combination of scoring ability, size and hard skill make him a very attractive prospect. While his most confident projection is a top-six forward, Martone has a legitimate chance to become a top-line winger if his skating improves.


5. Roger McQueen
C, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)

One of the most hotly debated prospects because of injury concerns — he played only 17 games this season — and also his incredible natural abilities.

McQueen is described as “a unicorn” because he’s a 6-5 center who skates with the speed and mobility you’d expect from a smaller player, despite some odd mechanics, which may be a function of adjusting to his size. His projection as an elite top-line center lacks confidence due to lack of playing time. Elite right-handed centers are rare in the NHL, and McQueen’s size and willingness to physically dictate play add significant value. He has professional defensive habits that are translatable to the NHL, as well as unique offensive upside.

He is a textbook case of high risk, high reward. McQueen needs to play against tougher competition, where he will be forced to develop his ability to protect himself and the puck, and create offense against bigger bodies. If developed properly, he could become a two-way force in the NHL.


6. Anton Frondell
C/RW, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)

Frondell is a versatile two-way forward who plays both center and right wing. His flexibility is attractive to teams, although many believe he is most likely to reach his potential as a winger in the NHL. Frondell is coming off one of the most productive seasons by an under-18 player in Allsvenskan history, giving him a confident projection as a first-line NHL forward.

He’s a cerebral player who picks apart defenders in one-on-one situations — and defensive coverage in offensive zone play. The details of Frondell’s game are translatable, including excellent forechecking ability, willingness to attack the middle of the ice and high-end anticipation on both sides of the puck.

Frondell has shown play-driving capabilities against senior-level players in the Allsvenskan, which has translated to the NHL in the past. He’s projected to produce between 75 and 85 points per season. His play style translates well, and has executives excited about his ability to step in the league in the next 18 months. His two-way ability combined with great anticipation and incredible puck skill make him one of the more captivating prospects in the draft.


7. Jackson Smith
D, Tri-City Americans (WHL)

Smith is a big, physical defenseman who is the consensus second best defender in the draft class. As a pure defender, Smith possesses all the qualities of a top-four matchup guy. He defends the rush very well, closes gaps and steers the play in transition. His offense started to develop more toward the end of the season, and he had a strong showing at the IIHF under-18 tournament. Given the importance of transition defense in the matchup role, Smith has a real chance to reach his ceiling projection of a No. 3 matchup defender.

Smith possesses a blend of skating, size and poise. Smith’s development will be about using his excellent mobility to prevent rush offense, becoming a more consistent offensive threat and continuing to develop his decision-making. If Smith can drive play on both sides of the puck in transition, he has a chance to become a No. 2 defender.


8. Victor Eklund
LW, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)

Eklund projects as a top-six forward with a fair chance of becoming a top-line contributor. Despite concerns about his size, Eklund’s play style is very translatable to the NHL. He plays a lot bigger than his measurements suggest, with a high-end motor and excellent forechecking ability. Should he grow, which has happened to other prospects in the past, Eklund’s projection becomes more confident as a 70-point producer.

Eklund excels in transition and attacks defenders with speed and fearlessness, darting to the inside and positioning his body to win or protect pucks. His smaller size has forced him to learn how to protect the puck with excellent body positioning. His off-puck play is very mature and should quickly translate to earned trust from NHL coaches. He has the potential to be a difference-maker in the NHL, and there is every reason to believe his blend of hard-nosed play with soft skill will translate seamlessly to the NHL.


9. Caleb Desnoyers
C, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL)

Desnoyers may go higher than ninth overall because he is one of the best two-way players in the draft. He has been described as a coach’s dream in that he can take an offensive or checking assignment and execute consistently. Desnoyers projects to be a quality second-line center, with a decent chance of becoming a first-line player.

He’s a cerebral player with excellent playmaking ability. It isn’t that he’s flashy and will get you out of your seat, it is that he’s consistently effective and makes intelligent plays with the puck. In other words, he’s reliable. As one scouting director described: “He’s the type of player you win with.” Some have quietly compared him to Patrice Bergeron and Jonathan Toews.


10. Jake O’Brien
C, Brantford Bulldogs (OHL)

O’Brien projects to be a point-producing top-six center with a chance to become a top-line center. The right-hander is one of the best playmakers in the draft, creating high-danger chances with regularity. O’Brien’s elite playmaking skills will be that much more valuable if he can add speed.

O’Brien’s two-way ability has consistently improved this season, through puck support, good defensive tracking and quality stick positioning. He lacks dynamic skating but plays a projectable two-way game. There is risk because he’s slighter than other players available at the center position, but O’Brien should comfortably be a top-six point producer in the NHL.


11. Carter Bear
C/LW, Everett Silvertips (WHL)

Bear is the type of player that a team looking for high-end skill and playmaking covets. He’s versatile and projects as a 65- to 75-point second-line player, with most believing he’ll be a full-time winger. He’s an excellent playmaker with good hands in tight spaces, making him a threat around the net, and one of the best offensive facilitators in the draft.

In addition to his offensive gifts, Bear has professional defensive habits that will translate well. His skating posture needs to be more upright to allow him to develop a more explosive stride to take advantage of his skills. Bear is a good mix of soft and hard skill with reliable defensive traits, and is the perfect second-line player who should thrive in a matchup role.


12. Brady Martin
C/W, Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds (OHL)

Martin has scouts raving about him after an excellent performance at the IIHF under-18 tournament, tallying 11 points in seven games. He’s a workhorse without an off switch, who brings a blend of physicality and hard skill. Martin projects as a middle-six forward capable of scoring 20 goals, with upside as a second-line forward. He’s a Swiss Army Knife-type player who will be most effective on the wing because of his strong wall play.

Most top prospects are invisible if their A game isn’t there, but Martin finds ways to get involved physically, and those traits are translatable. If Martin’s scoring doesn’t translate, he’ll be a valuable member of a third line. The hard-nosed style is rare in today’s NHL, and Martin’s play style is attractive to many scouts who believe he’s the type of complementary player teams need to win in the playoffs.


13. Justin Carbonneau
RW, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL)

Carbonneau possesses a toolbox of attributes that teams covet, including powerful skating and dynamic attacking presence. He projects as a top-six forward with significant variance, and is likely end up as a complementary middle-six player. Carbonneau can drive offense with his playmaking and skating ability, and though he lacks a standout special talent, he plays a well-rounded offensive game that includes playing through contact, good puck skills and a decent shot.

Carbonneau is a player with high upside, and there is inherent risk with his projection. He thrives when given time and space, and his development will come from learning to simplify his offensive attacks, drive to middle ice and play off his teammates. He has tools to become an effective power forward in the NHL with a few years of development.


14. Radim Mrtka
D, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)

A 6-6, right-handed defenseman with good mobility who plays in all situations has scouts very excited. Mrtka confidently projects as a top-four shutdown defenseman because of his excellent stick work, mobility and transition defense. Mrtka should develop into a strong transition defender, a reliable penalty killer and be a steady shorthanded presence.

He lacks the offensive prowess scouts would like to see in a top-pair defenseman, but his skating, size and intelligence give him the tools to develop into a reliable, minute-munching, shutdown defender. His late birthday gives him lots of development runway to refine his offensive playmaking, first passes and general understanding of how to best use his physical gifts.


15. Logan Hensler
D, Wisconsin Badgers (NCAA)

The 6-2 defender projects as a second-pairing defenseman with relative confidence. Hensler is very difficult to beat because he moves well and maintains good gap control. He lacks a dynamic offensive trait, but he has looked good when he activates in the rush. There are offensive flashes of head fakes and using his mobility to beat players that, if developed, would be critical to solidifying him as a two-way defenseman.

Hensler is a longer-term project who likely needs three years before he’s ready to make an impact in the NHL. His decision-making under pressure and ability to execute quality plays with consistency will make or break him as a high-end prospect. There is lots to like about his game, with the mobility and transition defense expected to translate well, but he lacks the high-end upside of other defenders in the draft class.


16. Lynden Lakovic
LW, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)

The 6-4 left winger has translatable scoring ability and excellent speed for his size. He attacks using his big frame to protect the puck and makes plays using good deception. He has the potential to be a dual-threat winger if he can develop his playmaking and decision-making. Lakovic projects to be a middle-six winger with fair confidence because of his scoring ability, speed and size.

Lakovic’s development will come on the physical side and in decision-making. He needs to lean on defenders and force his way to middle ice to take advantage of his quick hands and shot. Lakovic has quality offensive upside that projects confidently as an NHL player, with potential to be a 60-point player.


17. Braeden Cootes
C, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)

A right-handed center, Cootes was a standout performer at the under-18 world championships. He projects to be a middle-six player with value on both sides of the puck. His floor is likely a third-line checking center, similar to Yanni Gourde. Cootes possesses excellent speed that allows him to push the pace and drive play. He anticipates the game at a high level, allowing him to take advantage of his speed at even strength and on the penalty kill.

Cootes has a longer development path and needs to get a little stronger to truly become a quality NHL center. His relentlessness on the puck and strong playmaking qualities make him a desirable asset in this year’s draft. There is a lot to like about his toolbox and, if developed with patience, he could be a solid second-line contributor.


18. Kashawn Aitcheson
D, Barrie Colts (OHL)

There’s a very real chance that Aitcheson goes in the top 10 given the type of game he plays, but his projection as a No. 4/5 defender sees him below other players with higher upside. Aitcheson plays with all kinds of truculence and aggression, while possessing an aura of confidence on and off the puck. He has all the makings of being a complete menace who plays tough minutes and projects as a No. 4 defender.

Scouts see him as a hard-nosed two-way defender with significant bite who can be a momentum shifter with his physical presence.

He needs development time, as his skating and playmaking are very raw, but the competitive attributes and his development curve this season are very promising. Aitcheson’s involvement on offense developed as the season progressed, but he’s likely two or three years away from being ready to step in. When he does, he’s exactly the type of defender every coach and GM would want on their team.


19. Cameron Schmidt
RW, Vancouver Giants (WHL)

While size is not the be-all, end-all, it is exceedingly rare for a player smaller than 5-9 to make the NHL. I fully expect Schmidt to go lower than 19th in the draft, because he is 5-7.

However, every other model input has Schmidt as a top-15 player, with boom-or-bust potential as a second-line winger. He’s got breakneck speed and excellent puck-handling capabilities, making him a dangerous offensive threat.

Scoring 40 goals in the WHL is no easy task. Only three players under 19 eclipsed the mark this season (Schmidt, along with Gavin McKenna and Carter Bear). Schmidt has great offensive instincts and needs to be more efficient with his play selection to translate to the NHL level. He can be a bit of a pest and engage physically, but if he’s going to reach his ceiling, he needs to round out his off-puck play and be more consistently impactful shift to shift.


20. Benjamin Kindel
RW, Calgary Hitmen (WHL)

Kindel had excellent numbers in the WHL, putting up 99 points in 65 games. The right-winger has skill to burn, and terrific hockey sense. Kindel projects as a middle-six player with the most likely outcome being a third-line winger. He doesn’t have blistering speed in top flight, but he is agile and is difficult to pin down because of his water bug style. He needs to refine how he utilizes his skill, because it lacks a dynamic trait. Adding strength will go a long way to improving puck protection and ability to drive to middle ice to create scoring chances.

Defensively, Kindel provides tremendous value. He forechecks and backchecks effectively, plugs lanes and wins his fair share of puck battles. There is real value as a checker and penalty killer that will translate to the NHL level. He consistently competes on pucks and makes life difficult with his pace of play. If his scoring translates, he will likely be a 50-point, two-way player. If it doesn’t, a 40-point, two-way checker that is a plus penalty killer will be a good complementary piece at the NHL level.


21. Cameron Reid
D, Kitchener Rangers (OHL)

A slight defender, Reid is a fast and agile skater, consistently activating in the rush. Reid has upside as a top-four defender if he can develop his offensive traits, specifically his playmaking. His skating allows him to create time and space, evade forecheckers and put defenders in precarious positions. The next step is to use the space and lanes he creates to facilitate offense more effectively.

Defensively, Reid is an excellent rush defender because of his excellent skating ability and good stick work. He guides players to the outside with his stick, and uses his skating to disrupt the rush. In the defensive zone, his stick is timed perfectly to lift opponents’ sticks as the puck arrives, deflect shots out of play and plug passing lanes. The upside is there because of his skating, and the development requires patience to allow him to reach top-four level.


22. Cole Reschny
LW, Victoria Royals (WHL)

Reschny may find himself higher on the board when all is said and done after a standout performance at the under-18 world championships. No player has risen the way Reschny has in the second half of the season, due in large part to his offensive production in the WHL playoffs. Reschny’s projection elevated from a third-line player with a less confident projection to a relatively confident middle-six player.

He’s not as dynamic as his point totals suggest, but his anticipation and reads are among the best in the draft class. He’s not big, but he’s effective when he physically engages and understands how to play through contact. His development will be about adding speed and strength to complement his two-way ability, and to be a Swiss Army Knife-type player in the NHL who can score 50 points.


23. Cullen Potter
LW, Arizona State Sun Devils (NCAA)

Potter had a strong freshman season in the NCAA, particularly when you consider he didn’t turn 18 until halfway through the campaign. He showed consistent growth that culminated in a standout performance at the under-18 world championships. His speed is NHL level, and he’s one of the best skaters in the draft class. He understands how to effectively use his skating ability to pressure players, drive pace of play and create offense. He looks to drive to the middle of the ice, makes plays at top speed and understands when to delay on the rush to allow the play to develop.

Potter is a dynamic skater with flashes of dynamic skill. His off-puck play, both offensively and defensively, improved dramatically this season, which resulted in him becoming a play driver. He has boom-bust potential, but if he hits his ceiling, there is a top-six player there. The projection confidence has steadily improved this season, and with two more NCAA seasons, Potter should be one of the best players at the collegiate level by the time he signs his entry-level NHL contract.


24. Malcolm Spence
LW, Erie Otters (OHL)

Spence falls out of the top half of the first round in large part because other players passed him, but his lack of dynamism combined with non-elite production affected his projection. His relentless work ethic, tenacity and two-way ability give him a high floor as an NHL regular. His lack of play-driving ability and playmaking see his upside as a third-line forward.

He’s not flashy in any sense of the word, but he’s very effective. He’s one of the most defensively sound forwards in the draft, and understands how to forecheck to cause turnovers. His tenacity will translate, and his shot is good enough to be a threat from close range. Coaches love this type of player on their third lines in the playoffs, and Spence should develop into a solid complementary piece in the NHL.


25. Ivan Ryabkin
C, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL)

Ryabkin is a hotly debated prospect and is up and down on draft boards. Depending on who you talk to, feedback ranges from a potential second-line guy to might not make it at all. That explains his variance in model projection. He’s most likely to become a depth NHL player, but there is a fair chance of becoming a middle-six, physical presence who can score 15 to 20 goals.

When he’s on, it is easy to see the upside. He is crafty, identifying passing lanes and firing accurate passes to set up scoring chances. When Ryabkin moves his feet to drive to middle ice and create passing lanes, he is a very effective player. His physicality on both sides of the puck should translate to becoming a good checking-line player, with some creative scoring ability if he can develop puck protection and inside ice-battle skills.


26. Joshua Ravensbergen
G, Prince George Cougars (WHL)

It is rare that a goaltender is a consensus first-rounder, but Ravensbergen is that guy. Teams love his 6-5 frame with long limbs and good flexibility. He’s able to cover significant portions of the net, and his puck tracking allows him to proactively move and aggressively angle. His lateral movement is explosive while maintaining control, preventing over-sliding and overactivity. He is sharp in his crease play, calmly directing pucks and communicating with his defensemen on coverage.

Ravensbergen has issues with layered screens, a common trait for young goaltenders and NHLers. His elite puck tracking allows him to stay one step ahead of the play, preventing erratic movements. This gives him the aura of calmness that scouts discuss, and is something that will serve him well as he strives to become an NHL starter.


27. Blake Fiddler
D, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL)

There is a chance that Fiddler goes higher because he’s a right-handed defender with NHL bloodlines — father Vernon played 877 NHL games — and has an NHL-sized frame at 6-4, 210 pounds. As scouts and executives say, “Those guys don’t grow on trees,” and Fiddler fits the mold.

He’s a strong defender, taking away time and space from opponents and making life difficult in physical battles. He strongly projects as an NHL player with a chance of becoming a No. 4 D-man. Among scouting circles, there is belief he can become a second-pairing defender because he has a long development runway, and his physical play style will translate well.

Fiddler’s decision-making leaves something to be desired, but he’s always activating and can be taught how to be more effective with his reads. His desire to be a difference-maker and his package of plus skating, physical play and size are attractive to teams. He’s a project, and will need three to four years of development to simplify his game and become an effective NHL defender.


28. Jack Murtagh
C/LW, U.S. National Team Development Program

The 6-1, versatile forward is going to provide some value toward the end of the first round. Murtagh projects confidently to be an NHL player, and scouts like his non-flashy, high-motor game. He never cheats for effort, plays a high-pace game and is physically involved. He is most likely to be a third-line forward, which fits his game style of being strong on the puck, winning puck battles and wreaking havoc around the net.

Heading to Boston University will be good for his overall development, offensively in particular. Murtagh has good playmaking ability that lacks creativity or dynamism. He’s a hard-skill player, gritting his way to scoring chances in the hard areas and out-battling opponents. That won’t always work against NHL defenders, meaning developing some creativity and the ability to manipulate defenders will be critical to translating offense and being a well-rounded, two-way forward in the NHL.


29. Sascha Boumedienne
D, Boston University Terriers (NCAA)

Boumedienne played more than half of his freshman NCAA season as a 17-year-old, and was the youngest player in the NCAA this season. His total of 13 points in 40 games is not the type of offense you expect from a potential first-round pick, but against his peers at the under-18s, Boumedienne set a scoring record for most points by a defenseman and was named the tournament’s best defender.

His skating mechanics have improved, leading to more explosive maneuvers and the chance to develop more agile movements for transition play. He’s an offensive horse, facilitating scoring chances by manipulating defenders, moving his feet and creating passing lanes. When he gets his chance, his slap shot packs significant power and should be a weapon in the NHL.

Boumedienne’s defensive transition will need to improve to hit his ceiling of a second-pairing defender. As of now, he can run an effective power play, break pucks out with clean passes and create offense. His agility and ability to defend middle ice will need to develop to match his perimeter defensive ability. He’s got a good stick, and is most disruptive when he engages physically. Improving his anticipation and reads will be critical to reaching his potential.


30. Jack Nesbitt
C, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)

Nesbitt has risen on draft boards in the back half of the season — and with good reason. The 6-4 center brings a physical, defensive force and he confidently projects to be an NHL player. His upside continues to improve with flashes of one-on-one skill and the speed to drive and create in middle ice. There is a top-nine projection with less confidence; Nesbitt could become a checking center with 40-point potential.

His defensive play excites scouts because the scanning, shot-blocking, lane-filling and tracking to force turnovers under pressure will translate to the NHL. Scouts are confident Nesbitt is going to be an effective player in the NHL, and agree he’ll need to show more offensive playmaking ability to provide value on both sides of the puck.


31. William Moore
C, U.S. National Team Development Program

Moore is all over draft boards — from the mid-20s to the third round — because he’s a long-term project, exactly the type of player that teams drafting in the late first like to target. Moore is a cross between a hard-skill and soft-skill player who needs to pick which play style he wants to be. He projects as an NHL player with an outside shot of becoming a middle-six player if he can add to his offensive toolbox.

He has creativity and the skill to execute, manipulating defenders and playing with pace, and picks pucks off the wall with ease. But, he lacks consistency. His compete level and willingness to engage physically show potential as a power forward. He has reliable two-way abilities that will translate well, and will further develop as he stops on pucks, engages physically defensively and adds strength to improve in puck battles and playing through contact.


32. Bill Zonnon
LW, Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (QMJHL)

Zonnon is a raw prospect that some team in the late first round is going to be thrilled to get. He checks all the boxes, with a high-end motor, elite work ethic and playmaking abilities. The big forward is confidently projected to be an NHL player, and has a fair chance of becoming a third-liner. Scouts view him as a high-floor player because of his translatable “intangibles” and long runway to develop the raw skill. He’s already a reliable, 200-foot player and scouts love his no-quit, relentless effort.

If his skating improves, he will become a very effective two-way player, relying on his awareness, playmaking and competitiveness to bring value on both sides of the puck. He’s most likely to be a winger, with excellent wall play and battle skills. He can be a prototypical hard-skill player that teams play on the third line to shut down opponents and rely upon in all situations. He’s likely three years away, and would benefit from NCAA time to develop his skating and offensive abilities.


Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order)

Nathan Behm, LW/RW, Kamloops Blazers (WHL)
Henry Brzustewicz, D, London Knights (OHL)
Milton Gastrin, C/LW, MoDo Hockey (J20 Nationell)
Jakob Ihs-Wozniak, RW, Lulea HF (J20 Nationell)
Jack Ivankovic, G, Brampton Steelheads (OHL)
Benjamin Kevan, F, Des Moines Buccaneers (USHL)
Ryker Lee, F, Madison Capitols (USHL)
Cole McKinney, C, U.S. National Team Development Program
Vaclav Nestrasil, RW, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL)
Shane Vansaghi, RW, Michigan State Spartans (NCAA)

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Inside how the Dodgers fixed Roki Sasaki — and possibly saved their World Series repeat hopes

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Inside how the Dodgers fixed Roki Sasaki -- and possibly saved their World Series repeat hopes

PHILADELPHIA — Halfway across the world, Roki Sasaki had a secret admirer. In 2021, his first season in Nippon Professional Baseball, the Chiba Lotte Marines’ teenaged phenom regularly blew triple-digit fastballs by hitters and complemented them with a split-fingered fastball that behaved like a high-velocity knuckleball. Once a week, new videos of Sasaki’s latest start would find their way onto social media, and when they did, Rob Hill would consume them with equal parts appreciation and awe.

“I keep a mental tab of a lot of pitchers that I like,” said Hill, the Dodgers’ 30-year-old director of pitching, “and I’ll go back and look how they’re doing and see how their bodies are moving and playing, like almost a game of: If they were with me, what would I do?”

On Sept. 4 this year, Hill got the opportunity to answer that question. Over the previous four months, Sasaki’s ballyhooed rookie season with the Dodgers had devolved into a disaster. He struggled through eight starts, hit the injured list with a right shoulder impingement May 13, started throwing again two weeks later and was shut down once more June 16. He returned to the mound for Oklahoma City two months after that with a fastball sitting at just 93 mph in Triple-A and had lost hope of contributing substantively to the Dodgers’ attempt to be the first team in a quarter-century to win back-to-back World Series.

Then came the early-September debrief with Hill at the Dodgers’ complex in Arizona. For months, officials throughout the organization had worked to gain Sasaki’s trust, cognizant of how loath he was to offer it. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, general manager Brandon Gomes and manager Dave Roberts all had let Sasaki know they hadn’t lost faith, even as he’d gone from the major league rotation to minor league mediocrity. They would provide whatever tools he needed as the season went on.

Finally, following another middling Triple-A start, Sasaki pronounced himself open to a mechanical overhaul. What happened over the next week changed the course of his season — and the Dodgers’. Small but significant tweaks to Sasaki’s delivery unlocked the monster within. The desire to compete — to win — prompted him to embrace a move to the bullpen. And following a pair of successful big league relief outings to end the regular season, Sasaki found himself thrust into the ninth inning of Los Angeles’ past two playoff wins: a wild-card series clincher against the Cincinnati Reds and Game 1 of the National League Division Series at Philadelphia’s raucous Citizens Bank Park. His fastball sat over 100 mph, his splitter tumbled with ferocity, and he looked the part of dominant closer.

“When he came back, I told him he’s got a different look now,” Roberts said. “He’s got the look of a killer.”

For all of the grief directed at the Dodgers because of their half-billion-dollar payroll and cadre of superstars, their ability to diagnose issues and coach players up, to open clear lines of communication and remain on the same page — to make players better and make that change sticky — is among the best in baseball. The Dodgers’ exceptional financial might makes them behemoths. Their skill at creating other advantages available to even those with much lower payrolls makes them terrifying.

The resurrection of Sasaki is their latest triumph, and they’re confident that with the extra strength he developed during his time off, the cue he found to hone his delivery and the dominance he has experienced in the bullpen, it’s here to stay. Everything coming together in less than a month was fortuitous, yes, but it was no accident.


HILL CALLS IT the deposition. When the Dodgers are looking to extract more from a pitcher, they’ll send him to Hill and Ian Walsh, the organization’s pitching performance coordinator, for a question-and-answer session that can last hours. There are the simple asks: What is your routine, and what are you most comfortable throwing, and what hurts? And then the ones a little more far afield: Was there anything a coach told you in fifth grade you still apply today? Or is there pain in your body you’ve gotten used to that probably isn’t normal?

The transition of the 23-year-old Sasaki to Major League Baseball was atypical. Almost every Japanese player who leaves for MLB does so after a series of high-end accomplishments. Sasaki did throw a perfect game in 2022 followed by eight more blemish-free innings in his next start. But over the next two seasons, he barely threw 200 innings total, with arm and oblique injuries limiting his time on the mound. Sasaki had no desire to follow his forebears in accumulating accolades in Japan before heading to the United States. And even the hundreds of millions of dollars he could have received by coming over after age 25 as an international free agent were not worth delaying what he believed his destiny: to pitch against the world’s best hitters.

He also, the Dodgers recognized, wasn’t himself in his final seasons in Japan. During his meetings with teams, Sasaki wanted one question answered: How would you fix my fastball? It had leaked velocity over the previous two seasons, and teams’ responses, Sasaki figured, would offer him the best insight into their philosophies on pitching. The Dodgers knew Sasaki’s unique leg kick would make his delivery difficult to replicate, but their philosophy on pitching takes that into account.

“I don’t ascribe to a mechanical model,” Hill said. “Mechanics are not something to be modeled. The human body and the way that it moves is going to determine the output of what you do. Your own structural and physical constraints, and then your ability to coordinate your movements, is going to dictate what you do. I’m not going to be a towel-drill guy or a Driveline guy. I’m a get-you-better guy.”

Even though Hill had thoughts on how to upgrade Sasaki’s mechanics during the spring, he didn’t want to overstep his bounds. Shohei Ohtani didn’t look like the most talented player in the game’s history in his first spring. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Dodgers’ ace this season, grappled with inconsistency for the first half of his MLB debut last year.

“And Roki’s younger than both of them were when they came,” Dodgers reliever Blake Treinen said. “You come over, you’re young, you’ve got the weight of the world on your shoulders. It’s not the easiest thing. I don’t know if some of it is that, but I don’t think it really matters at this point. I’m just grateful, because it’s not easy for people to come out of where they’re at. Sometimes that can wreck somebody.”

As much as mental wreckage had accrued for Sasaki from the beginning of the season through August, his physical issues had compounded even more. The mechanical changes Hill had noticed were, he said, almost certainly due to his right shoulder. Every big-league-caliber pitcher, Hill said, is an elite compensator. If something is wrong physically, they are capable of finding ways to move their bodies to make up for the deficiency. The problem is that doing so creates instabilities elsewhere in the body. And eventually, under the weight of those stresses, it breaks down.

“Good or bad, right or wrong, he hasn’t had a whole lot of instruction. He’s just been on his own program because of the talent,” Roberts said. “And there was a point where he was in Arizona where the group came together and said, ‘Hey, you’ve got to give Rob a chance.’ And to his credit, he bought into that and just kind of freed himself up.”

During the deposition, Hill did what he called an accusation audit. He understood any skepticism Sasaki might have, and he wanted to address it head on, so Hill laid out all of the potential negatives of working with him. Maybe Sasaki was concerned with how Americans view pitching mechanics. Or the number of Dodgers pitchers who have suffered injuries. Or that they cannot possibly understand what it’s like to be him. And if Sasaki is annoyed by Hill or just doesn’t like him, that’s fine. He wouldn’t be the first. But at the end of the day, Hill said, he needed Sasaki to understand one thing and one thing only: The only thing Hill cared about is making him better.

“You can tell me you want to spin upside down on your head midway through your delivery,” Hill said. “If it comes out 100, I’m going to just sit back and watch. I’m not going to shove you into a box. I’m not going to tell you that you have to move a certain way, you have to use your glute, you have to use your foot. I’m just going to ask you different things that make sense in your head, and then we’re going to find a way to make it come to life.”

It came to life with what Hill calls the buffet. Following the deposition, Hill and Walsh broke down the answers and emerged with a suite of options to help fix the issues. They believed that Sasaki’s troubles stemmed from his pelvis tipping forward, which caused him to rotate too early. During the pitching delivery, energy builds in the body, ripples up to the arm and is projected onto the ball at release. Any disruption — even something that goes unnoticed by the naked eye — can wreak havoc. And with Sasaki, that havoc equaled 7 mph of fastball velocity going AWOL.

On Sept. 5, Hill and Walsh presented the buffet. In particular, they believed the set position of Sasaki’s back leg could fix what ailed him. During the deposition, Sasaki had shown them videos from the 2022 and 2023 seasons, when his stuff was at its best, and his back leg wasn’t nearly as extended. By flexing the back leg, with his knee starting over his toes, Sasaki could avoid hinging his pelvis and delay it from dragging his center of mass forward too early, which prevented his front leg from having enough time to stabilize.

“Rotating the pelvis early is just death to everything,” Hill said.

For three hours that day, they discussed the effect of the flexed back leg. Starting in the new position would allow Sasaki to stand tall with his exaggerated front-leg kick, flare that leg straight down, plunge into a deep position and delay rotation. A specific cue resonated with Sasaki. Up, down, out. Up, down, out. If he lost feel for his delivery, he could remind himself: Up, down, out. Though the new delivery would look similar, the delay allowed him to stabilize and extend, smoothing out an energy transfer that had grown too mushy and eaten away at his fastball velocity.

Typically, the Dodgers will have pitchers work on drills before trying out proposed fixes. Sasaki didn’t want to wait. The two months of not throwing a ball, and the trust he had in Los Angeles’ team physician, Dr. Neal ElAttrache, had his shoulder feeling better than it had in years. With additional strength gained in his lower half in the weight room during his time off, Sasaki was eager to test out the back-leg theory as soon as possible. There was little time to spare if he was to have any chance of contributing in October.

“I think I can do it,” Sasaki said.

Hill and Walsh weren’t going to say no. Players know their bodies and minds better than coaches ever can. On Sept. 6, Sasaki stepped onto the mound at the complex and sat 95 to 97 mph. Hill and Walsh were blown away. Because Sasaki told them during spring training that his bullpen sessions are typically 4 to 5 mph slower than what he throws in a game.

“What I try to do in that deposition is basically figure out if this is a software issue or hardware issue,” Hill said. “Like, is this a skill issue? Or are you hurt? Do you have a bony block in your hip that we don’t have diagnosed properly that is like actually limiting the ability to do things right? Once it’s somewhat determined that it’s not a hardware issue, it can happen quick if you just align the joints in the right way, especially with a guy who’s already produced a crazy amount of velo in his life.”


THREE DAYS AFTER that bullpen session, Sasaki took the mound for his next Triple-A start. He went 4⅔ innings, walked four and allowed three runs. And the Dodgers were ecstatic. Because the stuff was back. His fastball averaged 98.3 mph and topped out at 100.6. His splitter was dastardly. He even threw the cutter Hill helped teach him during spring training.

Almost immediately, the plans for Sasaki changed. The Dodgers’ bullpen was reeling. Tanner Scott, the closer signed to a $72 million deal over the winter, had faltered. Kirby Yates, another high-profile free agent signing, wasn’t much better and later would go on the injured list with a hamstring strain. For all of Los Angeles’ starting pitching depth, the bullpen was a liability. So the Dodgers approached Sasaki and told him that if he wanted to play meaningful baseball this season, there was a clear path through the bullpen.

“He saw what was happening with our starters and said, ‘Sign me up,'” Roberts said. “And so then it was on us.”

Still with Oklahoma City, Sasaki struck out a pair in his first relief outing Sept. 18. He followed three days later with another clean inning. The Dodgers summoned him back to the big leagues and threw him Sept. 24 and 26 to see how his arm would respond to going twice in three days. He punched out four, didn’t walk anyone and cemented his spot on their postseason roster.

“The fun part about relieving,” Sasaki said, “is the opportunity to be able to contribute to the game, to the team every day.”

And contribute he has. While Roberts wouldn’t officially name Sasaki the Dodgers’ closer, Sasaki will pitch in the highest-leverage spots as long as Los Angeles is in the playoffs. Against the Phillies, his fastball sizzled as high as 101 mph. He caught J.T. Realmuto looking on an unfair splitter and shook off a Max Kepler double to induce a Nick Castellanos groundout and Bryson Stott popout, securing the first save of his professional career.

“The goal was to come back fully healthy and just fully ready to pitch again,” Sasaki said. “So I was cognizant that there could be that possibility that I may not pitch in the regular season again. There’s been a lot of support staff, coaching staff, the people around me who helped me get to where I am today. So, yes, very grateful for that.”

He appreciates Hill and Walsh, Friedman and Gomes, Roberts, and Dodgers pitching coaches Mark Prior and Connor McGuiness. Strength coach Travis Shaw, who helped build Sasaki’s body to withstand what would be asked of it. The organization’s biomechanics experts who can point out whether his pelvis starts hinging again. The teammates who, even if they wondered at one juncture whether Sasaki was made to thrive in MLB, no longer have any doubts.

Now it’s about performing. Even if Sasaki will transition back to starting pitching next year, he is a reliever this month, a vital piece of the Dodgers’ plans to conquer October again. More than that, he’s a reminder that with trust and competence, what’s lost can be found.

“Never, ever write somebody off, never give up on somebody, regardless of how bad the circumstances look,” Hill said. “Because you truly never know.”

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No team has repeated in a quarter century. Are the Dodgers different?

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No team has repeated in a quarter century. Are the Dodgers different?

WHEN THE LOW point arrived last year, on Sept. 15 in Atlanta, Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts broke character and challenged some of his players in a meeting many of them later identified as a fulcrum in their championship run.

This year, he attempted to strike a more positive tone.

It was Sept. 6. The Dodgers had just been walked off in Baltimore, immediately after being swept in Pittsburgh, and though they were still 15 games above .500, a sense of uneasiness lingered. Their division lead was slim, consistency remained elusive and spirits were noticeably down. Roberts saw an opportunity to take stock.

“He was talking to us about the importance of what was in front of us,” Dodgers infielder Miguel Rojas said in Spanish. “At that time, there were like seven, eight weeks left because we only had three weeks left in the regular season, and he wanted all of us, collectively, to think about what we were still capable of doing, and the opportunity we still had to win another championship.”

Later that night, Yoshinobu Yamamoto got within an out of no-hitting the Baltimore Orioles, then he surrendered a home run to Jackson Holliday and watched the bullpen implode after his exit, allowing three additional runs in what became the Dodgers’ most demoralizing loss of the season. The next morning, though, music blared inside Camden Yards’ visiting clubhouse. Players were upbeat, vibes were positive.

The Dodgers won behind an effective Clayton Kershaw later that afternoon, then reeled off 16 wins over their next 21 games — including back-to-back emphatic victories over the Cincinnati Reds in the first round of the playoffs.

It took a day, but Roberts’ message had seemingly landed.

“We needed some positivity,” Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez said, “to remove all of the negativity that we were feeling in that moment.”

As they approach a highly anticipated National League Division Series against the Philadelphia Phillies, the Dodgers once again look like one of the deepest, most fearsome teams in the sport.

But the journey there was arduous.

A Dodgers team many outsiders pegged as a candidate to break the regular-season-wins record of 116 ultimately won only 93, its fewest total in seven years. Defending a championship, a task no team has successfully pulled off in a quarter-century, has proven to be a lot more difficult than many Dodger players anticipated. But they’ve maintained a belief that their best selves would arrive when it mattered most. And whether it’s a product of health, focus, or because the right message hit them at the right time, they believe it’s here now.

“We’re coming together at the right time,” Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy said amid a champagne-soaked celebration Wednesday night, “and that’s all that really matters.”


BUSTER POSEY’S San Francisco Giants became the most dominant team in the first half of the 2010s, during which they won three championships. They won every other year — on even years, famously — but could not pull off the repeat the Dodgers are chasing. To this day, Posey, now the Giants’ president of baseball operations, can’t pinpoint why.

“I wish I could,” Posey said, “because if I knew what that one thing was, I would’ve tried to correct it the second, third time through.”

Major League Baseball has not had a repeat champion since the New York Yankees won their third consecutive title in 2000, a 24-year drought that stands as the longest ever among the four major North American professional sports, according to ESPN Research. In that span, the NBA had a team win back-to-back championships on four different occasions. The NHL? Three. The NFL, whose playoff rounds all consist of one game? Two.

MLB’s drought has occurred in its wild-card era, which began in 1995 and has expanded since.

“The baseball playoffs are really difficult,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said. “You obviously have to be really good. You also have to have some really good fortune. The number of rounds and the fact that the very best team in the league wins around 60% of their games, the very worst team wins around 40% — now you take the upper-echelon in the playoffs, and the way baseball games can play out, good fortune is a real part of determining the outcomes.”

The Dodgers, now 11 wins shy of a second consecutive title, will hope for some of that good fortune this month. They’ve already encountered some of the pitfalls that come with winning a championship, including the one Posey experienced most vividly: the toll of playing deep into October.

“That month of postseason baseball — it’s more like two or three months of regular-season baseball, just because of the intensity of it,” Posey said.

The Dodgers played through Oct. 30 last year — and then they began this season March 18, nine days before almost everybody else, 5,500 miles away in Tokyo.

“At the time, you don’t see it,” Hernández said, “but when the next season starts, that’s when you start feeling your body not responding the way it should be. And it’s because you don’t get as much time to get ready, to prepare for next season. This one has been so hard, I got to be honest, because — we win last year, and we don’t even have the little extra time that everybody gets because we have to go to Japan. So, you have to push yourself to get ready a month early so you can be ready for those games. Those are games that count for the season. So, working hard when your body is not even close to 100%, I think that’s the reason. I think that’s why you see, after a team wins, next year you see a lot of players getting hurt.”

The Dodgers had the second-most amount of money from player salaries on the injured list this season, behind only the Yankees, the team they defeated in the World Series, according to Spotrac. The Dodgers sent an NL-leading 29 players to the IL, a list that included Freddie Freeman, who underwent offseason surgery on the injured ankle he played through last October, and several other members of their starting lineup — Will Smith, Max Muncy, Tommy Edman and Hernández.

The bullpen that carried the Dodgers through last fall might have paid the heaviest price. Several of those who played a prominent role last October — Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips — either struggled, were hurt or did not pitch. It might not have been the sole reason for the bullpen’s struggles — a combined 4.94 ERA from free agent signees Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates played just as big a role — but it certainly didn’t help.

“I don’t know if there’s any carryover thing,” Treinen said Sept. 16 after suffering his third consecutive loss. “I don’t believe in that. We just have a job, and it’s been weird.”


IN FEBRUARY, ROJAS made headlines by saying that the 2025 Dodgers could challenge the wins record and added they might win 120 games at full health. An 8-0 start — after an offseason in which the front office added Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, Michael Conforto, Hyeseong Kim, Scott and Yates to what was arguably the sport’s best roster already — only ratcheted up the expectations.

The Dodgers managed a 53-32 record through the end of June — but then, they went 10-14 in July, dropped seven of their first 12 games in August and saw a seven-game lead in the National League West turn into a one-game deficit.

From July 1 to Aug. 14, the Dodgers’ offense ranked 20th in OPS and 24th in runs per game. The rotation began to round into form, but the bullpen sported the majors’ highest walk rate and put up a 1.43 WHIP in that stretch, fifth highest.

The Dodgers swept the San Diego Padres at home in mid-August, regaining some control of the division, but then Los Angeles split a series against the last-place Colorado Rockies and lost one in San Diego. The Dodgers swept the Reds, then lost two of three to the Arizona Diamondbacks, dropped three in a row to the Pirates and suffered those back-to-back walk-off losses to the Orioles.

Consistency eluded the Dodgers at a time when it felt as if every opponent was aiming for them.

Before rejoining the Dodgers ahead of the 2023 season, Rojas spent eight years with the Miami Marlins, who were continually out of the playoff race in September and found extra motivation when facing the best teams down the stretch. Those matchups functioned as their World Series.

“I think that’s the problem for those teams after winning a World Series — you’re going to have a target on your back,” Rojas said. “And it’s going to take a lot of effort for your main guys to step up every single day. And then, at the end of the regular season, you’re going to be kind of exhausted from the battle of every single day. And I think that’s why when teams get to the playoffs, they probably fall short.”

Travis d’Arnaud, now a catcher for the Los Angeles Angels, felt the same way while playing for the defending-champion Atlanta Braves in 2022. There was “a little bit more emotion” in games that otherwise didn’t mean much, he said. Teams seemed to bunt more frequently, play their infield in early and consistently line up their best relievers. Often, they’d face a starting pitcher who typically threw in the low-90s but suddenly started firing mid- to upper-90s fastballs.

“It’s just a different intensity,” said A.J. Pierzynski, the catcher for the Chicago White Sox teams that won it all in 2005 and failed to repeat in 2006. “It’s hard to quantify unless you’re playing in the games, but there’s a different intensity if you’re playing.”


BEFORE A SEASON-ENDING sweep of the Seattle Mariners, the 2025 Dodgers were dangerously close to finishing with the fewest full-season wins total of any team Friedman has overseen in these past 11 years. Friedman acknowledged that recently but added a caveat: “I’d also say that going into October, I think it’ll be the most talented team.”

It’s a belief that has fueled the Dodgers.

With Snell and Glasnow healthy, Yamamoto dialing up what was already an NL Cy Young-caliber season and Shohei Ohtani fully stretched out, the Dodgers went into the playoffs believing their rotation could carry them the way their bullpen did a year earlier. Their confidence was validated immediately. Snell allowed two baserunners through the first six innings of Game 1 of the wild-card round Tuesday night, and Yamamoto went 6⅔ innings without allowing an earned run 24 hours later.

“For us, it’s going to be our starting pitching,” Muncy said. “They’re going to set the tone.”

But an offense that has been without Smith, currently nursing a hairline fracture in his right hand, has also been clicking for a while. The Dodgers trailed only the Phillies in slugging percentage over the last three weeks of the regular season. In the Dodgers’ first two playoff games, 10 players combined to produce 28 hits. Six of them came from Mookie Betts, who began the season with an illness that caused him to lose close to 20 pounds and held a .670 OPS — 24 points below the league average — as recently as Aug. 6. Since then, he’s slashing .326/.384/.529.

His trajectory has resembled that of his team.

“We had a lot of struggles, really all year,” Betts said. “But I think we all view that as just a test to see how we would respond. And so now we’re starting to use those tests that we went through earlier to respond now and be ready now. And anything that comes our way, it can’t be worse than what we’ve already gone through.”

The Dodgers still don’t know if their bullpen will be good enough to take them through October — though Sasaki’s ninth inning Wednesday night, when he flummoxed the Reds with triple-digit fastballs and devastating splitters, certainly provided some hope — but they believe in their collective ability to navigate it.

They believe this roster is better and deeper than the championship-winning one from last fall. And, as Rojas said, they believe they “know how to flip the switch when it matters most.”

“It’s been a long year,” Muncy said. “At this point, seven months ago, we were on the other side of the world. We’ve been through a lot this year, and to end up in the spot we’re in right now — we’re in a great spot. We’re in the postseason. That’s all that matters. That’s what we’ve been saying all year. Anything can happen once you’re in October.”

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Power Rankings: Penn State drops out of Top 25 as three new teams join the list

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Power Rankings: Penn State drops out of Top 25 as three new teams join the list

Six full weeks into the 2025 season and every team could use a little work. At least on offense.

Ohio State’s defense has been nothing short of spectacular, holding opponents to five points per game. The Buckeyes offense has been more potent as of late, but there are areas to improve, just like there are with many units.

This season has been one of inflated quarterback expectations, from Texas’ Arch Manning to Florida’s DJ Lagway to Penn State’s Drew Allar to LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier to Clemson’s Cade Klubnik. Those QBs and many others have time to get fully right, but they will need to perform better and receive more help from those around them.

A new group of standout quarterbacks has emerged, including Oregon‘s Dante Moore and Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss, and one-time Heisman favorite Carson Beck has found a different level at Miami. But no offense has it all figured out right now.

As we examine another reshuffled Top 25 in this week’s Power Rankings, we focused on the offenses, what’s working and what still needs work as the halfway point of the season approaches. — Adam Rittenberg

Previous ranking: 1

The Buckeyes could crank up the rushing attack. Ohio State ranks ninth in the Big Ten with 171.6 rushing yards per game and 10th in rushes per attempt going for 10 or more yards (15.2%). Freshman Bo Jackson, who’s averaging 7.5 yards per carry after not getting a touch in the opener against Texas and taking over as the primary ball carrier ahead of James Peoples and CJ Donaldson, has since given the Buckeyes a jolt (Jackson now has 30 carries over the past two games). Ohio State getting more big plays out of the running game will be key down the line to fully complement Jeremiah Smith & Co. through the air. — Jake Trotter


Previous ranking: 3

The Hurricanes have shown the ability to play smashmouth football and connect on explosive plays in the passing game in their 5-0 start. But they also have gone through lulls on offense that have turned double-digit leads into games that ended a little too close for comfort. It happened again in a 28-22 win over Florida State. Miami jumped out to a 28-3 lead heading into the fourth quarter. In that final quarter, Miami had 17 total yards, one first down and went 0-4 on third down. Against Florida and Notre Dame, Miami also had double-digit second-half leads before both teams made it a one score game as well. Miami did enough in all three of those games to win. But Miami coach Mario Cristobal also acknowledged after the game, “We’ve got a long ways to go.” — Andrea Adelson


Previous ranking: 2

A bye week might have come at the perfect time for the Ducks, who are coming off a thrilling overtime win at Penn State on Sept. 27 before they welcome Indiana for another top-10 matchup. Though there might have been questions about how Dante Moore would work within Oregon’s offense, he and coordinator Will Stein have left no doubt that their partnership is sound, while Moore has continued to shine (74.6% completion rate, 14 touchdowns and only one interception), the real bedrock of the Ducks’ unit has been their running game. Even though Tulane transfer running back Makhi Hughes did not pan out and will be taking a redshirt year, Oregon hasn’t needed him — the breakout of freshman running backs Dierre Hill Jr. (leads the team in rushing yards with 270) and Jordon Davison (leads the team in touchdowns with seven) has buoyed their attack. — Paolo Uggetti


Previous ranking: 4

Lane Kiffin’s Rebels enjoyed a bye week Saturday, and they host a wobbly Washington State team this coming weekend. So they have a bit of time to prepare for a massive pair of road games — at Georgia in Week 8 and at Oklahoma in Week 9. They’ve averaged 36.7 points per game since quarterback Trinidad Chambliss took over in the starting lineup, so it’s hard to complain about too much. But the run game could certainly help things out with a few more big plays. Even with Kewan Lacy on pace for an 1,150-yard season (projected over 13 games), he’s only averaging 4.4 yards per carry, and the Rebels headed into Week 6 ranked just 73rd in yards per carry (not including sacks). Ole Miss is staying on schedule, but the big plays have to come from the pass. — Bill Connelly


Previous ranking: 5

The Aggies ascended to the top 5 this week with a 31-9 win over Mississippi State. The Aggies started slowly, taking a 7-3 lead into halftime, scoring with 1:51 left in the second quarter. But KC Concepcion caught 34- and 2-yard TD passes in the second and third quarter respectively, and then the run game took over, with quarterback Marcel Reed scoring on a 7-yard carry and running back Rueben Owens II, who missed most of this past season with an injury, racking up 142 yards on 21 carries, with Le’Veon Moss adding 36 more on 11 carries. Mario Craver, the MSU transfer, caught a touchdown as well for the Aggies. Reed continues to improve, but still hasn’t hit his stride yet, completing 13 of 23 throws for 180 yards. And with a defense that has become dominant of late, Reed’s development with all the options around him has the streaking Aggies optimistic about the stretch run. — Dave Wilson


Previous ranking: 6

Aside from the health of quarterback John Mateer, who remains sidelined after right hand surgery, the clearest point of improvement has to be a Sooners run game that began Week 6 ranked 105th nationally in yards per game (125.3) and 112th in yards per attempt (3.6). Saturday’s 44-0 win over Kent State saw the most productive performance of Cal transfer Jaydn Ott‘s brief Oklahoma career (11 carries, 49 yards). But the Sooners still only mustered 4.5 yards per attempt against a Golden Flashes defense that entered the day with the nation’s No. 134 run defense, and Oklahoma has yet to have a running back go for more than 100 yards in a game this fall. Mateer has often been the program’s most effective runner this fall. Among the few silver linings of his injury is the opportunity for the Sooners to get their ground game sorted without him, something Oklahoma desperately needs in order to weather a brutal SEC schedule and remain a bona fide playoff contender. Between Ott, veteran Jovantae Barnes and underclassmen Tory Blaylock and Xavier Robinson, the Sooners surely have enough backfield talent. But as Oklahoma prepares to meet Texas in Dallas next weekend, it’s still waiting for a No. 1 running back — or simply a legitimate running game outside of Mateer — to emerge. — Eli Lederman


Previous ranking: 7

There’s not much to nitpick with a Hoosiers offense averaging 47.8 points per game, 7.5 yards per play and converting third-down opportunities at 58%, all numbers that rank in the top 10 nationally. Indiana could be sharper on fourth down, though, as it has converted only 2 of 8 opportunities, ranking near the bottom of the FBS. The offense’s struggles in a Sept. 27 win at Iowa is worth monitoring, especially with Oregon’s defense looming this week. IU averaged only 2.7 yards per carry, and an offense predicated on big plays had just two longer than 16 yards. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza wasn’t nearly as efficient (13-of-23 passing) when under duress, and an offensive line featuring several new faces will be facing pass rushers like Oregon’s Matayo Uiagalelei and Penn State’s Dani Dennis-Sutton. The Hoosiers feel good about primary running backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black, but will look for Khobie Martin or another No. 3 option following Lee Beebe Jr.’s season-ending injury. — Rittenberg


Previous ranking: 9

The Red Raiders continued their torrid start, going 5-0 for the first time since 2013, winning all of them by more than 20 points for the first time since 1953-54, as they beat Houston 35-11. Tech had 549 yards and held Houston to 269 as Behren Morton threw for 345 yards and J’Koby Williams had his first two-TD game rushing for 107 yards on 19 attempts. What’s scarier for opponents is Tech went just 1-for-6 on red zone touchdowns and missed two field goals, with Morton saying after the game that there’s another level the Red Raiders can reach that nobody has seen yet. — Wilson


Previous ranking: 10

The Crimson Tide’s offensive output in their 30-14 victory against Vanderbilt was a snapshot of what coach Kalen DeBoer believes the unit could be. Alabama piled up 486 yards of offense and went 7-for-15 on third down. Quarterback Ty Simpson threw for 340 yards, and Jam Miller ran for 136 with one touchdown in his best game of the season. Simpson distributed the ball to a bunch of playmakers: Ryan Williams caught six passes for 98 yards with one score; Germie Bernard had five catches for 82 yards with one score; and Isaiah Horton had four receptions for 66 yards. Tight end Josh Cuevas had a couple of big third-down catches. When Williams is focused and isn’t dropping passes, it’s nearly impossible for opponents to account for all the Tide’s options. There’s still plenty to clean up — Simpson was upset at himself for taking four sacks. He admitted he needs to get rid of the ball faster or throw it away to take pressure off his offensive line. — Mark Schlabach


Previous ranking: 11

The Bulldogs bounced back from their loss to Alabama with a 35-14 victory over Kentucky at home, and their offense looked pretty solid against the struggling Wildcats. Quarterback Gunner Stockton threw for 196 yards with one touchdown and one interception and ran for two more scores in three quarters. The Bulldogs went 9-for-12 on third down, piled up 425 yards of offense and didn’t allow a sack. For the Bulldogs to reach their full potential, they’re going to have to get healthy on the offensive line. Georgia was already missing starting tackle Earnest Greene III, who sat out for the third straight game with a back injury. Then left tackle Monroe Freeling went down with a leg injury on the second play from scrimmage against Kentucky and didn’t return. Sophomore Bo Hughley stepped in at left tackle. Georgia used a different starting lineup on the line in each of its five games and needs to find continuity up front. Guard Dontrell Glover and tackle Juan Gaston played on the right side against Kentucky, the first time the Bulldogs started two true freshmen on the offensive line since 2008. — Schlabach


Previous ranking: 13

Although the Volunteers are off to a 4-1 start, quarterback Joey Aguilar believes they can be even more explosive going forward as he continues to master Josh Heupel’s system. On throws of 20 or more air yards this season, Aguilar is 10-of-19 for 443 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. Getting that deep shot element back in the Vols’ offense has been a big deal after Nico Iamaleava went 13-of-44 on throws of 20-plus yards this past season. The wide receiver room was a bit of a question mark entering 2025, but Chris Brazzell II has been outstanding as the fourth-leading receiver in FBS and second-year wideouts Mike Matthews and Braylon Staley have stepped up as well. They’ll try to light up an Arkansas defense led by an interim DC this week before it’s time to hit the road and take on Alabama. — Max Olson


Previous ranking: 19

An off week came at the right time for the Yellow Jackets, which Brent Key admitted went into their Week 5 matchup with Wake Forest running on fumes. Still, Georgia Tech survived that one and continues to rise in the rankings as others tumbled in Week 6. While the schedule remains manageable, and the Jackets have ample weapons, there is a push to get the passing game going with more consistent success. Eric Rivers, Malik Rutherford and Isiah Canion have all had their moments, but it has been up and down. The lack of explosiveness downfield showed early against Wake, and if Georgia Tech wants to keep Haynes King from taking 20 hits a game, distributing the ball better as a passer will be critical. — David Hale


Previous ranking: 17

Entering their bye week, Brian Kelly’s Tigers ranked 15th in points allowed per drive but ranked only 73rd on offense. This is a direct reversal of the profile LSU presented in recent years. Garrett Nussmeier has been throwing mostly short passes — it’s hard to avoid the idea that he might still be afflicted by the abdominal injury that occurred in preseason — but the major issue is that Nussmeier has to do everything because the run game stinks. LSU has averaged just 4.2 yards per carry not including sacks (116th in FBS heading into Week 6), with starting running back Caden Durham averaging just 4.1. The rebuilt offensive line hasn’t done its job well enough, and Durham’s per-carry averages, both before and after contact, aren’t acceptable. Following their loss to Ole Miss in Week 5, the Tigers will have to raise their game to get to the finish line around 10-2. Nussmeier’s health is an ongoing concern, but actually being able to run the ball would help a lot. — Connelly


Previous ranking: 16

Mizzou has a dynamite run game led by transfer star Ahmad Hardy — who’s currently on pace for 1,900 yards in 13 games — and Beau Pribula is completing 76% of his passes. There’s a lot to like about an offense that’s averaging 45.2 points per game. But sacks have been an issue: The Tigers entered their bye week ranked 97th in sack rate (6.7%) and 121st in sacks per pressure (30.0%). They aren’t making nearly enough big plays to justify that number of negative plays, either (117th in percent of completions gaining 20-plus yards). Injured star tackle Cayden Green isn’t likely to be ready for the Alabama game this coming Saturday, but one way or another, Mizzou will need to keep Pribula upright to have a shot at an upset of Alabama this coming Saturday. — Connelly


Previous ranking: 20

The offense is undeniably better under first-year coordinator Chip Lindsey, although the bar wasn’t exactly high from 2024. Michigan has been exceptional with its run game, reaching the end zone 17 times in five games, including twice from Justice Haynes in Saturday’s 24-10 home win against Wisconsin. The passing game also showed a bit of life in the Wisconsin win, as freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood passed for 27 yards and a touchdown. But there’s certainly another gear for the passing game, especially if Michigan wants to reestablish itself as a CFP contender. Indiana transfer Donaven McCulley has been as advertised, and Semaj Morgan has delivered some solid performances, but Michigan still needs others to emerge for an offense with only three passing touchdowns and tied for 61st in completions of 20 yards or longer. Finding that next level will be critical this week at USC. — Rittenberg


Previous ranking: 22

The Cougars, 5-0 after a 38-24 win over West Virginia on Friday, are a physical team with a clear identity between their top-10 scoring defense and top-15 rushing offense. True freshman QB Bear Bachmeier had been turnover-free through his first four starts before an interception and a fumble against the Mountaineers, but he’s showing growth every week and produced a season-high 351 passing yards on Friday with 100-yard performances from receivers Chase Roberts and Parker Kingston. This is the slowest offense in the Big 12 from a tempo standpoint, so it’ll be interesting to see how Bachmeier operates when he gets into more two-minute situations in tight Big 12 games and needs to go fast. The pressure is about to crank up considerably with a challenging four-game stretch ahead against Arizona, Utah, Iowa State and Texas Tech. — Olson


Previous ranking: 21

CJ Carr continues to make his case to be in the Heisman race. Carr threw for 189 yards and two touchdowns in Saturday’s win over Boise State, and in his past three games, he has thrown for eight scores without a pick (and notably been sacked just twice). The performance against a strong Boise State defense was encouraging, too, after some early struggles on the O-line, particularly in an opening-week loss to Miami. Notre Dame’s next four games — NC State, USC, Boston College and Navy — won’t see particularly ferocious pass rushes either, so the opportunity for the Irish O-line to gel ahead of a showdown with Pitt in November is there. — Hale


Previous ranking: 23

This spring, Illini offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. outlined how explosive plays were the next step for the unit.

“We’re going to have a little bit more vertical speed in what we’re doing to stretch the defense than what we did [in 2024],” Lunney told ESPN. “We might have a little more down-the-field, stretch-the-defense threat.”

Illinois has shown a significantly better downfield passing game this fall, and again in Saturday’s win at Purdue, as Hank Beatty‘s 62-yard touchdown catch put the Illini on the board, and quarterback Luke Altmyer averaged 20.5 yards per completion. But Illinois’ running game hasn’t had the same big-play success. The Illini entered Saturday having only one game with a run of more than 26 yards. Although they had three rushing touchdowns against Purdue, including a 25-yarder from Ca’Lil Valentine, the team finished with just 117 yards on 41 carries (4.9 yards per carry). Illinois hasn’t averaged more than five yards per carry against an FBS opponent, and likely will need to hit big run plays this week against Ohio State to have a chance for the upset. — Rittenberg


Previous ranking: NR

For the first time all season, Virginia could not establish its ground game in a 30-27 overtime win over Louisville. The Cards held Virginia to a season-low 88 yards on the ground. So, instead, Virginia relied on its defense and timely plays from quarterback Chandler Morris to win. Despite the low rushing total, Virginia remains one of the best rushing teams in the country, averaging over 200 yards per game on the ground. And the Cavaliers have done it despite losing multiple starters and reserves to injury. Still, they have been able to find players to step up and a running back rotation that includes J’Mari Taylor, Xavier Brown and Harrison Waylee. Morris has made some plays, but he also takes some gambles that have led to turnovers and mistakes in the first six games. However, his leadership is undeniable, and he has lifted the Virginia offense to its best production under Tony Elliott. — Adelson


Previous ranking: 18

The Commodores had too many self-inflicted wounds in their 30-14 loss at Alabama on Saturday. Quarterback Diego Pavia has been great for most of the past two seasons, but he admitted he tried to do too much in the red zone against the Crimson Tide. Pavia had a costly fumble and an interception on a pass he tried to force to tight end Eli Stowers. Vanderbilt also had five penalties for 52 yards. As much as Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea has upgraded his team’s roster, the Commodores can’t afford to make that many mistakes and beat the upper-echelon teams in the SEC. It won’t get any easier for the Commodores in an upcoming three-game stretch against LSU (home), Missouri (home) and Texas (road). Vanderbilt also faces Tennessee on the road at the end of the regular season. The Commodores can clean up some of those mistakes in their upcoming open date. — Schlabach


Previous ranking: 24

There are only so many holes to poke in a Tigers offense that entered Week 6 ranked 15th nationally and second among FBS offenses in points per game (38.6). Behind 266 yards and three touchdowns from Nevada transfer quarterback Brendon Lewis, Memphis rolled past AAC rivals Tulsa 45-7 to improve to 6-0 Saturday night. It was easily the most productive passing performance of Lewis’ debut season with the Tigers, but there still hasn’t been a vintage Ryan Silverfield aerial attack so far in 2025. Memphis began Saturday ranked 97th nationally in passing offense (200.6 yards per game). By comparison, the Tigers have never finished lower than 21st in the category across Silverfield’s initial five seasons in charge of the program. At the same time, Memphis is running the football better than at any other point of Silverfield’s tenure, and there’s nothing wrong with a more balanced attack. But if the Tigers are going to vie for a conference title and remain in the playoff conversation come late fall, they’ll likely need some more firepower through the air over the back half of the season. — Lederman


Previous ranking: NR

Since his poor performance against Mississippi State on Sept. 6, quarterback Sam Leavitt has inched back toward the player who earned some preseason Heisman buzz. But if the Sun Devils are going to be a serious player in the Big 12, those inches need to turn into full strides. Cam Skattebo isn’t walking through that door and the next games — Utah and Texas Tech — might be the toughest left on the schedule. — Kyle Bonagura


Previous ranking: 15

The offense wasn’t the issue in the Cyclones’ 38-30 loss to Cincinnati. They moved the ball well enough through the air (314 yards) and on the ground (151) yards to win most games. But they were simply gashed up front, surrendering 7.6 yards per carry for a total of 260 rushing yards. That’s a tough formula to win with. Coming into the season, Iowa State’s defensive line was a concern and at the midway point of the regular season, that has not changed. — Bonagura


Previous ranking: NR

For the second straight week, Cincinnati was hitting on all cylinders on offense, showcasing a balanced attack that could turn the team into a real threat in the Big 12. In its 38-30 win against Iowa State, three players — Evan Pryor, Tawee Walker and Brendan Sorsby — combined for 264 yards on 33 carries, while Sorsby added 214 through the air. In a pair of Big 12 games, the Bearcats — one of four unbeaten teams in conference play — have amassed 1,082 yards of total offense. — Bonagura


Previous ranking: 12

The sirens are blaring in Austin now, as the preseason No. 1 team fell from the AP poll completely after a 29-21 loss to unranked Florida, which had scored 33 points total in its previous three games. Arch Manning threw two interceptions to total five for the season, the most by a Texas QB in the first five games of a season since Sam Ehlinger in 2020. And the Longhorns’ offensive line didn’t provide much help, giving up six sacks and forcing Manning to adjust to pressure all day and serve as the Longhorns’ leading rusher with 37 yards on 15 carries. The Longhorns’ other three ballcarriers, Quintrevion Wisner, Ryan Niblett and Christian Clark, combined for 15 yards on 11 carries. — Wilson

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