Let’s deal, first of all, with the question many of you will have: after today’s reduction to 4.25% will there be more interest rate cuts to come?
Today, the Bank of England did nothing to sway you – or the financial markets that bet on such things – from the assumption that after today’s quarter percentage point cut there will be further reductions in the cost of borrowing.
Indeed, right now, financial markets assume the Bank will cut UK interest rates down to 3.5% by early next year, and the Bank didn’t contradict that today.
But (this being economics, there’s always a “but”) if there was one theme that overarched the Bank’s latest set of forecasts, it was that it’s becoming fiendishly difficult to predict the future.
Take tariffs. In theory, the Bank thinks they’ll actually be much less damaging than many had assumed, with the total impact not enough to push the UK into recession.
But that’s based on a few important assumptions, chief among them that Donald Trump doesn’t re-impose the reciprocal tariffs announced on 2 April – despite the fact that he’s explicitly said they are only temporarily paused. It was based on the assumption that the UK wouldn’t get a trade deal with the US, an assumption that was already out of date by the time the document was published.
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The Bank’s forecasts are, in other words, even more uncertain than usual.
Perhaps that helps explain why the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee had a rare three-way split in their vote this month, with two members voting to leave rates on hold, two voting to cut them by half a percentage point, and the remaining five carrying the decision and reducing them by 0.25%.
Now, even taking this uncertainty into account, there are a few things one can take from today’s Bank of England news, and the update from its American counterpart, the Federal Reserve, yesterday.
While tariffs are expected to push inflation up in the US, they are expected to push inflation down in the UK. The upshot is while the Federal Reserve is pausing its interest rate cuts, UK rates are coming down.
Every Bank of England forecast is, by definition, a historic document. Such things take time to model and write so, by the time they come out, they are always a little bit out of date. But never has this been more true of a Bank forecast than the one published today.
The big picture, however, is that no one really has a clue. No one knows what Donald Trump will do next. No one knows what the impact of his tariffs will be on the UK or, indeed, elsewhere. No one knows what this all spells for inflation or unemployment.
A man has admitted arson after a major fire at an MP’s constituency office.
Joshua Oliver, 28, pleaded guilty to starting the fire which destroyed the office of Labour MP Sharon Hodgson, at Vermont House in Washington, Tyne and Wear.
The fire also wrecked a small charity for people with very rare genetic diseases and an NHS mental health service for veterans.
The guilty plea was entered at Newcastle Magistrates’ Court on the basis that it was reckless rather than intentional.
Image: Hodgson, who has been an MP since 2005, winning her seat again in 2019. Pic: Reuters
The Crown did not accept that basis of plea.
Oliver, of no fixed address, had been living in a tent nearby, the court heard.
Northumbria Police previously said it was “alerted to a fire at a premises on Woodland Terrace in the Washington area” shortly after 12.20am on Thursday.
“Emergency services attended and no one is reported to have been injured in the incident,” it added.
Drone footage from the scene showed extensive damage to the building.
A spokesperson for the Crown Prosecution Service said: “Our prosecutors have worked to establish that there is sufficient evidence to bring the case to trial and that it is in the public interest to pursue criminal proceedings.
“We have worked closely with Northumbria Police as they carried out their investigation.”
Oliver was remanded in custody and will appear at Newcastle Crown Court on Tuesday, 14 October.
Dozens of people have gathered at a Sikh temple to attend an emergency meeting after police in the West Midlands said they are investigating the rape of a woman as a “racially motivated attack”.
The victim, reported to be a British-born Sikh aged in her 20s, told officers a racist remark was made to her during the attack in Oldbury, which was reported to police just before 8.30am on Tuesday.
The Sikh Federation (UK) said the perpetrators allegedly told the woman during the attack: “You don’t belong in this country, get out.”
Jas Singh, principal advisor to the Sikh Federation (UK), was among the group of faith and community leaders responsible for holding the meeting at the Guru Nanak Gurdwara temple in Smethwick, a few miles from Oldbury, following concerns within the community.
“I think if you look at it in the context of the climate, it makes it even more worrying because there is a trend of hatred… the targeting of migrants,” he said.
“Ultimately, what that means is the targeting of people’s skin colour, and as Sikhs we have the most distinct, unique identity,” he added.
“We bear the brunt of all prejudice and ignorance, and hate.”
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Image: Principal advisor to the Sikh Federation (UK) Jas Singh
Similar sentiments were raised at the meeting, with many horrified by the reports of the sexual assault as well as concerns about their own safety.
“People are trying to divide us,” said a woman in her 30s, who did not want to be named but said, as a Sikh woman, she wanted to be present to have her voice heard.
She was not only referencing the sexual assault but also what she believes has been an increase in overt discrimination.
“Let’s call it what it is, this is racism,” she told the meeting, as she broke down in tears.
Reverend Nick Ross, from Smethwick’s Holy Trinity Church, was also in attendance at the emergency meeting.
He commented on “offensive” graffiti that had been left on the side of the wall of the Sikh temple, while saying his Anglican church had also been defaced.
“We cannot just ignore it, it will go on and it will build, and there will be incidents like this,” he said, referencing racial tensions across the country.
Image: Faith and community leaders organised the meeting at the Sikh temple
Police are still trying to identify the perpetrators of the attack and want to speak to anyone who may have seen two white men in the area.
The first is described as having a shaved head and a heavy build, and was wearing a dark sweatshirt with gloves on, and the second was reportedly wearing a grey top with a silver zip.
Chief Superintendent Kim Madill, of Sandwell Police, said: “We are working really hard to identify those responsible, with CCTV, forensic and other inquiries well under way.
“We fully understand the anger and worry that this has caused, and I am speaking to people in the community today to reassure them that we are doing everything we can to identify and arrest those responsible.
“Incidents like this are incredibly rare, but people can expect to see extra patrols in the area.”
The number of roadworks in Britain has more than doubled in the past two years – and frustrated drivers are more likely than ever to get stuck behind temporary traffic lights.
Exclusive data obtained by Sky News reveals there were 425,524 miles of roadworks across the UK last year. That’s enough to stretch around the world a whopping 17 times.
It marks a 110% increase compared to 2023, when there were 203,000 miles of lane closures.
Part of the reason for the surge is the 2019 pledge by then prime minister Boris Johnson to roll out full fibre broadband to every corner of the nation as part of his “levelling up” agenda.
Image: A promise made by Boris Johnson has been partially blamed for the rise in roadworks. File pic: Reuters
Causeway Technologies infrastructure director Nick Smee told Sky News: “It’s absolutely true that the rollout of super-fast fibre has caused a huge spike because we all want those facilities.
“The problem is you can’t do it without digging up the roads.”
Image: ‘The rollout of super-fast fibre has caused a huge spike,’ Nick Smee says
The original deadline for Johnson’s ‘Project Gigabit’ was this year, but this has been delayed to 2032, meaning drivers could face at least another six years of disruptions.
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Meanwhile, the government is hoping another 100,000 public electric vehicle charging points will be installed by the end of the decade, which will inevitably lead to more asphalt being ripped up for the cables to be laid.
Roadworks are now a regular occurrence in large parts of the country, with emergency repairs often needed for leaking Victorian water pipes and other utilities.
In some cases, the same streets are repeatedly dug up in quick succession, leading to misery for motorists and an increased risk of potholes.
Drivers in London trundled through 490,893 roadworks in 2024, the highest number nationwide, averaging more than 1,300 sites across the capital every day.
Kent recorded 134,430 projects, and Surrey had 132,291. Essex and Hampshire complete the list of the top five roadwork hotspots.
Image: Heavy machinery carrying out roadworks in London
In January 2024, the then Conservativegovernment said it would crack down on disruptive street works.
The Labourgovernment stood by the pledge and said it would start charging firms that unnecessarily leave roads closed over weekends, which hadn’t previously been possible.
Officials also planned to double fines for delayed roadworks by this summer. However, the Department for Transport has now told Sky News that won’t happen until next year at the earliest “due to other high priority legislative work pushing it back”.
Clive Bairsto, chief executive of the trade association Street Works UK, said: “If you overfine people, the industry will be forced to use firms of less integrity and you’ll end up with the poor performers being used to do jobs rather than the good performers, which is what we want to encourage.”