Donald Trump has a soft spot for military spectacles and autocrats.
He will be looking on with envy as Vladimir Putin parades both in Moscow today, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping flying in to join Victory Day events in Red Square.
European allies of Ukraine will be watching nervously, wary of anything that could upturn the delicate quest for peace.
President Trump‘s patience with peddling his much vaunted “peace deal” has been wearing thin and allies had feared Ukraine could be punished for it.
That would have been grotesquely unfair, of course. Ukraine has bent over backwards to accommodate Mr Trump’s one-sided diplomacy that has so far seemed to favour the aggressor in this obscene war.
Image: Pic: AP
True, the Trump proposal does not agree to Russian annexation of all the land already taken by force and stops short of ordering the complete demilitarisation of Ukraine, but otherwise the proposals are pretty much everything that Moscow has asked for.
The deal is being pushed by Steve Witkoff, Mr Trump’s golf partner turned chief negotiator, a man regarded by diplomats as out of his depth and lost in the rough when it comes to the arts of statecraft.
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Like his president, Mr Witkoff has a history of doing business with Russian oligarchs, an apparently starry-eyed view of the Russian leader and has called Ukraine a “false country”.
Moment of truth approaching
Mr Witkoff and Mr Trump have so far given Mr Putin the benefit of the doubt, but a moment of truth is approaching. While Ukraine has agreed to a longer ceasefire in principle, Mr Putin will not.
Ukraine’s European allies feared that Mr Trump was about to despair of progress, blame Ukraine and take US military support with him.
Then came the minerals agreement between the US and Ukraine. The breakthrough gave the US president something to show for his efforts and assuaged his desire for some kind of deal. He seems to have moved on for now, at least, and approved the first $50m of arms sales to Ukraine.
Image: Members of the Russian Air Force fly over Red Square during the rehearsal. Pic: AP
But these remain a tense few days ahead with plenty at stake.
The Russian lull is seen here in Kyiv as little more than a ploy.
If the Russian leader was serious about giving peace a chance, they say, he would have signed up to the permanent ceasefire being proposed by the Trump team.
Besides, Russia broke the last truce in Easter as soon as it had begun and used it to carry out surveillance and reinforcement operations says Kyiv. Why risk another pointless pause that is exploited by the invaders?
Escalation possible
If Russia plays the same games this time and Ukraine retaliates, there could be a significant escalation. Likewise, with any Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow during Victory Day.
Any major flare-up will not be looked on favourably by the US president if it upstages his first trip abroad this presidency, a three-day tour of the Middle East.
For now, his attention is not so much on the Ukraine conflict and he is no longer issuing threats to walk away and stop supporting the Ukrainians.
Image: Russian servicemen march towards Red Square in the rehearsal. Pic: AP
Giving a news conference in Downing Street, he said: “A Russian spy ship, the Yantar, is on the edge of UK waters north of Scotland, having entered the UK’s wider waters over the last few weeks.
“This is a vessel designed for gathering intelligence and mapping our undersea cables.
“We deployed a Royal Navy frigate and RAF planes to monitor and track this vessel’s every move, during which the Yantar directed lasers at our pilots.
“That Russian action is deeply dangerous, and this is the second time this year that this ship, the Yantar, has deployed to UK waters.”
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Mr Healey added: “So my message to Russia and to Putin is this: we see you, we know what you’re doing, and if the Yantar travels south this week, we are ready.”
His warning comes following a report from MPs that the UK lacks a plan to defend itself from a military attack, despite the government promising to boost readiness with new arms factories.
At least 13 sites across the UK have been identified for new factories to make munitions and military explosives, with Mr Healey expecting the arms industry to break ground at the first plant next year.
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The report, by the Commons Defence Committee, said the UK “lacks a plan for defending the homeland and overseas territories” as it urged the government to launch a “co-ordinated effort to communicate with the public on the level of threat we face”.
Mr Healey acknowledged the dangers facing the UK, saying the country was in a “new era of threat” that “demands a new era for defence”.
Giving more details on the vessel, he said it was “part of a Russian fleet designed to put and hold our undersea infrastructure and those of our allies at risk”.
Image: Russian Ship Yantar. Pic: Ministry of Defence
He said the Yantar wasn’t just part of a naval operation but part of a Russian programme driven by Moscow’s Main Directorate of Deep-Sea Research, or GUGI, which is “designed to have capabilities which can undertake surveillance in peacetime and sabotage in conflict”.
“That is why we’ve been determined, whenever the Yantar comes into British wider waters, we track it, we deter it and we say to Putin we are ready, and we do that alongside allies,” he added.
Asked by Sky News’ political correspondent Rob Powell whether this was the first time that lasers had been used by a Russian vessel against pilots, Mr Healey replied: “This is the first time we’ve had this action from Yantar directed against the British RAF.
“We take it extremely seriously. I’ve changed the Navy’s rules of engagement so that we can follow more closely, monitor more closely, the activities of the Yantar when it’s in our wider waters. We have military options ready.”
Mr Healey added that the last time the Yantar was in UK waters, the British military surfaced a nuclear-powered attack submarine close to the ship “that they did not know was there”.
The Russian embassy has been contacted for comment.
More than 250 passengers on board a ferry that ran aground off the South Korean coast have been rescued, according to the coastguard.
It said the Queen Jenuvia 2, travelling from the southern island of Jeju to the southwestern port city of Mokpo, hit rocks near Jindo, off the country’s southwest coast, late on Wednesday.
A total of 267 people were on board, including 246 passengers and 21 crew. Three people had minor injuries.
Image: All on board were rescued. Pic: Yonhap/Reuters
Footage showed passengers wearing life vests waiting to be picked up by rescue boats, which were approaching the 26,000-tonne South Korean ferry.
Its bow seemed to have become stuck on the edge of a small island, but it appeared to be upright and the passengers seemed calm.
Weather conditions at the scene were reported to be fair with light winds.
South Korea’s Prime Minister Kim Min-seok ordered all available boats and equipment to be used to rescue those on board, his office said.
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The coastguard received a report of the incident late on Wednesday, and immediately deployed 20 vessels and a plane to join the rescue effort.
It was not immediately clear what caused the vessel to run aground.
The vessel can carry up to 1,010 passengers and has multiple lower decks for large vehicles and passenger vehicles, according to its operator Seaworld Ferry.
In 2014, more than 300 people, mostly schoolchildren heading to Jeju on a school trip, died when the Sewol ferry sank.
It was one of the country’s worst disasters.
The ship went down 11 years ago near the site of Wednesday’s incident, though further off Jindo.
After taking a turn too fast, the overloaded and illegally-modified ferry began listing.
It then lay on its side as passengers waited for rescue, which was slow to come, before sinking as the country watched on live television.
Many of the victims were found in their cabins, where they had been told to wait by the crew while the captain and some crew members were taken aboard the first coastguard vessels to arrive at the scene.
The Yantar may look scruffy and unthreatening but below the surface it’s the kind of ship a Bond villain would be proud of.
In hangars below decks lurk submersibles straight out of the Bond film Thunderball. Two Consul Class mini manned subs are on board and a number of remotely operated ones.
It can “undertake surveillance in peacetime and sabotage in conflict”, in the words of Britain’s Defence Secretary John Healey.
Image: The Russian spy ship Yantar. Pic: MOD/PA
Cable-cutting equipment combined with surveillance and intelligence gathering capabilities make this a vessel to be reckoned with.
Most worryingly though, in its most recent tangle with RAF planes sent to stalk it, the Yantar deployed a laser to distract and dazzle the British pilot.
Matthew Savill, from the Royal United Services Institute, told Sky News this was potentially a worrying hostile act.
He said: “If this had been used to dazzle the pilot and that aircraft had subsequently crashed, then maybe the case could be made that not only was it hostile but it was fundamentally an armed attack because it had the same impact as if they’d used a weapon.”
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The Yantar is off our waters and here to threaten the West’s Achilles heel, says our government. Undersea infrastructure is essential to our hyper-connected world.
Undersea cables are the vital nervous system of Western civilisation. Through them courses the data that powers our 21st century economies and communications systems.
Pipelines are equally important in supplying fuel and gas that are vital to our prosperity. But they stretch for mile after mile along the seabed, exposed and all but undefended.
Their vulnerability is enough to keep Western economists and security officials awake at night, and Russia is well aware of that strategic weakness.
That is why some of the most sophisticated kit the Russian military possesses is geared towards mapping and potentially threatening them.
The Yantar’s concealed capabilities are currently being used to map that underwater network of cables and pipelines, it’s thought, but they could in the future be used to sabotage them. Russia has been blamed for mysterious underwater attacks in the recent past.
A more kinetic conflict striking at the West’s soft underwater underbelly could have a disastrous impact. Enough damage to internet cables could play havoc with Western economies.
It is a scenario security experts believe the West is not well enough prepared for.
Putting the Yantar and its Russian overseers on watch is one thing; preventing them from readying for such a doomsday outcome in time of war is quite another.