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Donald Trump has a soft spot for military spectacles and autocrats.

He will be looking on with envy as Vladimir Putin parades both in Moscow today, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping flying in to join Victory Day events in Red Square.

European allies of Ukraine will be watching nervously, wary of anything that could upturn the delicate quest for peace.

President Trump‘s patience with peddling his much vaunted “peace deal” has been wearing thin and allies had feared Ukraine could be punished for it.

That would have been grotesquely unfair, of course. Ukraine has bent over backwards to accommodate Mr Trump’s one-sided diplomacy that has so far seemed to favour the aggressor in this obscene war.

Russian army soldiers marching during a dress rehearsal for Victory Day parade in St. Petersburg on 7 May. Pic: AP/Dmitri Lovetsky
Image:
Pic: AP

True, the Trump proposal does not agree to Russian annexation of all the land already taken by force and stops short of ordering the complete demilitarisation of Ukraine, but otherwise the proposals are pretty much everything that Moscow has asked for.

The deal is being pushed by Steve Witkoff, Mr Trump’s golf partner turned chief negotiator, a man regarded by diplomats as out of his depth and lost in the rough when it comes to the arts of statecraft.

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Like his president, Mr Witkoff has a history of doing business with Russian oligarchs, an apparently starry-eyed view of the Russian leader and has called Ukraine a “false country”.

Moment of truth approaching

Mr Witkoff and Mr Trump have so far given Mr Putin the benefit of the doubt, but a moment of truth is approaching. While Ukraine has agreed to a longer ceasefire in principle, Mr Putin will not.

Ukraine’s European allies feared that Mr Trump was about to despair of progress, blame Ukraine and take US military support with him.

Then came the minerals agreement between the US and Ukraine. The breakthrough gave the US president something to show for his efforts and assuaged his desire for some kind of deal. He seems to have moved on for now, at least, and approved the first $50m of arms sales to Ukraine.

Russian Air Force fly over Red Square, leaving trails of smoke in the colors of the Russian national flag during rehearsal. Pic: AP/Alexander Zemlianichenko
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Members of the Russian Air Force fly over Red Square during the rehearsal. Pic: AP

But these remain a tense few days ahead with plenty at stake.

Mr Putin’s self-declared three-day ceasefire raises the spectre paradoxically of escalation if either side breaks it.

The Russian lull is seen here in Kyiv as little more than a ploy.

If the Russian leader was serious about giving peace a chance, they say, he would have signed up to the permanent ceasefire being proposed by the Trump team.

Besides, Russia broke the last truce in Easter as soon as it had begun and used it to carry out surveillance and reinforcement operations says Kyiv. Why risk another pointless pause that is exploited by the invaders?

Escalation possible

If Russia plays the same games this time and Ukraine retaliates, there could be a significant escalation. Likewise, with any Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow during Victory Day.

Any major flare-up will not be looked on favourably by the US president if it upstages his first trip abroad this presidency, a three-day tour of the Middle East.

For now, his attention is not so much on the Ukraine conflict and he is no longer issuing threats to walk away and stop supporting the Ukrainians.

Russian servicemen march towards the Red Square before Victory Day military parade general rehearsal on 7 May. Pic: AP/Pavel Bednyakov
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Russian servicemen march towards Red Square in the rehearsal. Pic: AP

Read more from Sky News:
Ukraine and Russia accuse each other of breaching ceasefire
Putin prepares to host dozens of world leaders for Victory Day parade

That will be a relief here in the Ukrainian capital. They would be unwise to do anything to reengage him, for now at least.

Their European allies, though, know American involvement in this war appears to be receding.

Can they fill the vacuum?

This week, they remember the sacrifices made to bring peace and security to their continent 80 years ago.

Can they find the political will and unity to do so again, even without America?

Astonishingly, given all we have been through, that is still an open question.

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Britain rattles its sabre at Russia’s spy ship – but is it a hollow threat?

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Britain rattles its sabre at Russia's spy ship - but is it a hollow threat?

A fierce warning from Britain’s defence secretary to Vladimir Putin to turn his spy ship away from UK waters or face the consequences was a very public attempt to deter the threat.

But unless John Healey backs his rhetoric up with a far more urgent push to rearm – and to rebuild wider national resilience – he risks his words ringing as hollow as his military.

The defence secretary on Wednesday repeated government plans to increase defence spending and work with NATO allies to bolster European security.

Russian Ship Yantar transiting through the English Channel. 
File pic: MOD
Image:
Russian Ship Yantar transiting through the English Channel.
File pic: MOD

Instead of focusing purely on the threat, he also stressed how plans to buy weapons and build arms factories will create jobs and economic growth.

In a sign of the government’s priorities, job creation is typically the top line of any Ministry of Defence press release about its latest investment in missiles, drones and warships rather than why the equipment is vital to defend the nation.

I doubt expanding employment opportunities was the motivating factor in the 1930s when the UK converted car factories into Spitfire production lines to prepare for war with Nazi Germany.

Yet communicating to the public what war readiness really means must surely be just as important today.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. Pic: Reuters

Mr Healey also chose this moment of national peril to attempt to score political points by criticising the previous Conservative government for hollowing out the armed forces – when the military was left in a similarly underfunded state during the last Labour government.

A report by a group of MPs, released on the same day as Mr Healey rattled his sabre at Russia, underlined the scale of the challenge the UK faces.

HMS Somerset flanking Russian ship Yantar near UK waters. on January 22, 2025.
File pic: Royal Navy/PA
Image:
HMS Somerset flanking Russian ship Yantar near UK waters. on January 22, 2025.
File pic: Royal Navy/PA

It accused the government of lacking a national plan to defend itself from attack.

The Defence Select Committee also warned that Mr Healey, Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of the cabinet are moving at a “glacial” pace to fix the problem and are failing to launch a “national conversation on defence and security” – something the prime minister had promised last year.

The report backed up the findings of a wargame podcast by Sky News and Tortoise that simulated what might happen if Russia launched waves of missile strikes against the UK.

The series showed how successive defence cuts since the end of the Cold War means the army, navy and air force are woefully equipped to defend the home front.

Read more:
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Briton who volunteered as spy for Russia jailed

But credible national defences also require the wider country to be prepared for war.

A set of plans setting out what must happen in the transition from peace to war was quietly shelved at the start of this century, so there no longer exists a rehearsed and resourced system to ensure local authorities, businesses and the wider population know what to do.

John Healey.
Pic: PA
Image:
John Healey.
Pic: PA

Mr Healey revealed that the Russian spy ship had directed a laser light presumably to dazzle pilots of a Royal Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that was tracking it.

“That Russian action is deeply dangerous,” he said.

“So, my message to Russia and to Putin, is this: We see you. We know what you are doing. And if Yantar travels south this week, we are ready.”

He did not spell out what this might mean but it could include attempts to block the Russian vessel’s passage, or even fire warning shots to force it to retreat.

The Russian ship Yantar is docked in Buenos Aires in 2017
Pic: David Fernandez/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
Image:
The Russian ship Yantar is docked in Buenos Aires in 2017
Pic: David Fernandez/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

However, any direct engagement could trigger a retaliation from Moscow.

For now, the Russian ship – fitted with spying equipment to monitor critical national infrastructure such as communications cables on the seabed – has moved away from the UK coast. It was at its closest between 5 and 11 November.

The military is still tracking its movements closely in case the ship returns.

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Why Zelenskyy has to tread carefully over peace plan, or face a Trump ultimatum

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Why Zelenskyy has to tread carefully over peace plan, or face a Trump ultimatum

If you’re not at the table then you’re on the menu, as the saying goes.

That’s why Ukraine and Europe are so concerned about reports of a new peace plan being drawn up without them.

Their fears appear to be well-founded. The plan’s proposals reportedly include two major concessions for Kyiv – that it must give up territory in the Donbas which Russia has not yet seized, and that it must dramatically reduce its armed forces.

Ukraine war latest: Trump ‘approves 28-point Ukraine peace plan’

Sound familiar? That’s because it is. These are two of Vladimir Putin’s long-held, key demands for peace.

The ‘new’ peace plan represents the latest about-turn from the Trump administration on how it approaches the conflict.

After the failure of the Alaska summit, and last month’s fractious phone call between Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and US secretary of state Marco Rubio (which led to the cancellation of a second summit in Budapest and US sanctions on Russian oil), it seemed like Ukraine had finally convinced Donald Trump to change tack.

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Donald Trump meeting Vladimir Putin in Alaska in August. Pic: AP
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Donald Trump meeting Vladimir Putin in Alaska in August. Pic: AP

Instead of showing Moscow patience, he began applying pressure in the hope of forcing Russia to make concessions and to meet Ukraine somewhere in the middle.

But now it’s all change once again.

The key player seems to have been Kirill Dmitriev – the Kremlin’s investment envoy and a close ally of Vladimir Putin – who has operated as Steve Witkoff’s opposite number in peace negotiations.

(l-r) Kirill Dmitriev and special envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg in April 2025. Pic: Kremlin Pool Photo/AP
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(l-r) Kirill Dmitriev and special envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg in April 2025. Pic: Kremlin Pool Photo/AP

Whenever the US special envoy has been in Moscow this year, Dmitriev has always been close by. He is Putin’s Witkoff whisperer.

After the Lavrov-Rubio bust-up, Dmitriev was sent to Miami to supposedly patch things up through Witkoff. He did more than, it seems.

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Cheat Sheet: Russian spy ship and secret Ukraine peace deal

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Witkoff’s ‘secret’ plan to end war
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What’s reportedly emerged from their discussions is a 28-point peace plan that has been signed off by Donald Trump.

Will Ukraine go for it? I very much doubt it.

If the reports are correct, the US-Russia proposals merely represent the Kremlin’s long-held demands, and Ukraine’s long-held red lines. For Kyiv, it’s a non-starter.

But President Zelenskyy will have to tread carefully. Failure to show engagement could rile Donald Trump and trigger an ultimatum – accept this plan or you’re on your own.

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Nearly 1,000 evacuated as erupting Indonesian volcano covers villages with hot ash

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Nearly 1,000 evacuated as erupting Indonesian volcano covers villages with hot ash

Nearly 1,000 people from three villages on the Indonesian island of Java have been forced to flee to shelters after the eruption of its highest volcano.

More than 170 people, including climbers, porters, guides, tourism officials and tourists, were rescued after Mount Semeru erupted on Wednesday.

No casualties have been reported during the evacuation of those most at risk in the district of Lumajang, according to Indonesia‘s disaster mitigation agency.

The eruption sent searing clouds of hot ash and a mixture of rock, lava and gas up to eight miles (13km) down the volcano’s slopes, officials said.

Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

They had set out to climb the 3,676m (12,060ft) peak on Wednesday and were stranded at the Ranu Kumbolo camping area before being taken to safety, Priatin Hadi Wijaya, head of the Centre for Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation, told reporters.

Hetty Triastuty, from the centre, warned climbers may have been exposed to volcanic ash.

A thick column of hot clouds rose 1.2 miles (2km) into the air during the eruptions, from midday to dusk on Wednesday, as scientists raised the volcano’s alert to the highest level, Indonesia’s geology agency chief Muhammad Wafid said.

People were forced to leave their homes. Pic: AP
Image:
People were forced to leave their homes. Pic: AP

The eruptions that unfolded throughout the day blanketed several villages with thick volcanic ash and blocked out sunlight. Local media reported that two motorcyclists crashed due to hot ash on a bridge, resulting in severe burns to their bodies.

A series of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), defined by the British Geological Survey as “hot, ground-hugging flows of ash and debris” capable of moving at hundreds of metres per second, travelled down the mountain’s southern slope through the Besuk Kobokan River valley slopes, Mr Wafid said.

“Mount Semeru’s seismicity activity indicated that the eruption continued at a high level, with increasing numbers of signals indicating avalanches,” he added.

Mr Wafid warned people to keep away from an area along the Besuk Kobokan River, which is the path of the lava flow, adding that the five-mile (8km) danger zone may be expanded.

Seismic activity suggests the eruption will continue, officials said.

Mount Semeru, also known as Mahameru, has erupted numerous times in the past 200 years. But as with many of Indonesia’s 129 active volcanoes, tens of thousands of people continue to live nearby.

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A total of 51 people died after Semeru’s last major eruption in December 2021, while several hundred others were burned in villages that were buried in layers of mud and more than 10,000 people were forced to flee their homes.

The Indonesian archipelago sits along the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” a horseshoe-shaped series of fault lines, and is prone to earthquakes and volcanic activity.

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