While the current majority in DC shared intentions to likely kill the existing $7,500 federal EV tax credit, some language in a (very fluid) proposal suggests that not all automakers will be immediately affected. For example, Rivian is an American automaker whose sales are young enough that US consumers might still be able to take advantage of the tax credit, and that could also include the upcoming R2 EVs.
The past two years, federal tax credits for EV sales through the Inflation Reduction Act have done wonders for US adoption, helping give consumers the last little push they needed to go all-electric with at least one vehicle in their home.
It was great while it lasted.
These days, the current administration has its sights set on a delusional idea of “success” from the past, trying to breathe new life into dying industries like coal and, yes, combustion vehicles. EV adoption was never going to happen overnight, but recent discussions among the GOP stating it is likely to kill the federal EV tax credit is disheartening news.
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We’ve already long-surpassed “critical mass” in the US adoption process, so it’s a fair wager that EVs are here to stay and will continue increasing their market presence. While most makes and models are likely to be disqualified from federal EV tax credits after 2025 (only about 20 or so currently qualify these days), some proposed exceptions in place will allow credits to continue for American companies like Rivian, for example.
Rivian R1T (right) and R1S (left) Source: Rivian
Proposal states Rivian EVs could qualify for tax credits after 2025
According to Reddit user u/FiveDollarHoller, they are a lobbyist in the midst of Washington’s discussions to repeal the federal EV tax credit. According to the post, the US House Ways and Means Committee will finalize its tax title this week.
According to proposal shared by reliable source close to the lobbyist, a slew of credits will be eliminated on December 31, 2025, including the following:
We share the same sentiment as the lobbyist in that this proposal remains fluid and discussions are ongoing, so the details of these plans could have already changed by now and most likely will change before everything is approved through the necessary government channels.
One interesting tidbit in the current proposal is an exception within the $7,500 Clean Vehicle Credit for OEMs that have not sold 200,000 vehicles by December 31, 2025. If that exception makes its way into the final legislature, EVs from Rivian, including the R1S and R1T, could still qualify for tax credits.
Better still, Rivian recently shared that it remains on track to begin scaled production and deliveries of its second flagship model, the R2, in 2026, meaning customers of that BEV could also qualify for federal tax credits.
At the end of 2024, Rivian had sold 51,579 compared to 50,122 a year prior and 20,332 deliveries in 2022. Per its recent Q1 2025 quarterly report, the American automaker targets 40,000 to 46,000 deliveries in 2025. By those numbers, that puts Rivian around approximately 168,033 total deliveries if it hits the high end of its 2025 outlook.
As such, Rivian’s numbers would fall below the 200,000 sales threshold outlined in the current proposal. Again, this is hearsay at most until we get a legitimate proposal publicized by the Capitol. Still, it’s a noteworthy potential perk for companies like Rivian if it comes to fruition. It could also incentivize more US consumers to purchase a Rivian since it could be one of the only OEMs that still qualify (along with Lucid, probably).
Per the IRS, despite being built in Normal, Illinois, the Rivian R1 models are not listed as qualified BEVs for the $7,500 tax credit. We will have to see how this all plays out in the coming days and months.
Per the Reddit post, the complete text of the EV tax credit repeal proposal is supposed to be shared today (Monday) at 2 PM. Once a bona fide proposal is in place, it will still need to be approved by the House Ways and Means Committee, then the House, followed by the Senate (which may be a lot more challenging to get approved).
We will monitor this process closely, which will likely last well into 2025, and will report on what EVs (if any) may still qualify for federal tax credits next year and whether that will include Rivian. Regardless, if you’re pondering the idea of purchasing a BEV (Rivian or not), you should try to take delivery before the end of the year because the federal EV tax credit doesn’t appear long for this world.
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Former reality TV contestant Sean Duffy. Photo by Gage Skidmore
America voted for inflation, and it got it today, as republicans running the Department of Transportation bowed to their oil donors and finalized a rule to make your cars less efficient, thus costing America an extra $23 billion in fuel costs.
Sean Duffy, who was appointed as Secretary of Transportation on the back of the transportation “expertise” he showed as a contestant on Road Rules: All Stars, a reality TV travel game show, announced the rule on his first day in office.
His original memo promised a review of all existing fuel economy standards, which require manufacturers to make more efficient vehicles which save you money on fuel.
Specifically, the rule finalized today targets the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standard (CAFE), which was just improved last year by President Biden’s DOT, saving American drivers $23 billion in fuel costs by meaning they need to buy less fuel overall. The savings from the Biden rule could have been higher, but were softened from the original proposal due to automaker lobbying.
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Sierra Club’s Transportation for All director, Katherine Garcia, responded to the new Duffy rule’s finalization with a statement:
“The Trump administration’s deregulatory, pro-polluter transportation agenda will only increase costs for Americans. Making our vehicles less fuel efficient hurts families by forcing them to pay more at the pump. This action puts the well-being of our communities at risk in every way imaginable. It will lead to fewer clean vehicle options for consumers, squeeze our wallets, endanger our health, and increase climate pollution. The Sierra Club will continue to push back against this administration’s dangerous clean transportation rollbacks.”
The rule had been filed on Mar 16, and review was completed yesterday. Oddly enough, the rule was filed as “not economically significant,” a categorization for government rules that won’t affect the US economy by more than $100 million – which is less than the $23 billion that the DOT’s own analysis says the new rule will cost Americans.
Both we at Electrek and the Sierra Club had a meeting with the government to point out this inconsistency, but both of our meetings were scheduled for today and were cancelled late last night. There seems to have been no public comment period regarding this change in regulations.
DOT isn’t done raising your fuel costs, it wants to do more
Duffy’s original DOT memo says he wants to target all similar standards, rather than just the improvements made last year – so in fact, our headline likely underestimates how much higher Duffy wants to make your fuel costs.
A recent analysis by Consumer Reports shows that fuel economy standards are enormously popular with Americans, and that maintaining the current standards could result in lifetime savings of $6,000 per vehicle, compared to current costs, by 2029. And that fuel economy standards implemented since 2001 have already saved $9,000 per vehicle. Now, imagine the net effect of removing all of those standards, which Duffy has directed the DOT to examine doing.
As we’ve already seen to be the case often with Trump’s allies, the DOT memo lied about its intentions. Just like EPA head Lee Zeldin, who said he wants to make the air cleaner by making it dirtier, Duffy, says he wants to make fuel costs lower by making them higher. The memo attempts to argue that your car will be cheaper if it has lower fuel economy, even though it wont, because buying more fuel will mean you spend more on fuel, not less.
Unequivocally, over here in the real world, dirtier air is actually dirtier, and higher fuel costs are actually higher.
The result of this increased fuel usage also inevitably means more reliance on foreign sources of energy. The more oil America uses, the more it will have to import from elsewhere. Other countries looking to exercise power over the US could certainly choose to raise prices as they recognize that the US has just become more reliant on them.
And, as we know from the most basic understanding of economics, adding more demand means prices will go up, not down. Reducing demand for a product in fact forces prices down, and EVs are already displacing oil demand which depresses oil prices.
Meanwhile, Biden’s higher fuel economy standards would mean that automakers need to provide a higher mix of EVs, which inherently get all of their energy to run not just domestically, but regionally as well. Most electricity generation happens regionally or locally based on what resources are available in your area, so when you charge a car, you’re typically supporting jobs at your local power plant, rather than in some overseas oil country.
But these are just attempts to follow-through on the dirty air, inflation causing promises that the republicans made during the campaign. Mr. Trump signaled he intended to raise your fuel costs (and costs of everything else) during the 2024 US Presidential campaign, when he asked oil executives for $1 billion in bribes in return for killing off more efficient vehicles.
However, whiplash changes in regulatory regimes like this are typically seen as bad for business. Above all, businesses desire regulatory certainty so they can plan products into the future, and there are few businesses with longer planning timelines than automakers.
This is why automakers want the EPA to retain Biden’s emissions rules, because they’re already planning new models for the EV transition. They went through this once before, in the chaos of 2017-2021, where they originally asked for rollbacks but then realized their mistake, and now still complain about the broken regulatory regime caused by the last time a former reality TV host squatted in the White House.
Further, if American manufacturing turns away from the EV transition, or continues to make tepid movement towards it, this will only hand more of a manufacturing lead to China, meaning more decline of American manufacturing (compared to the huge manufacturing boom seen under President Biden).
But all of these harms will happen to real people. This isn’t reality television, where the intent is to make up drama for views. This is actual harm that’s actually going to be done to Americans, who are having a rough time as the global economy continues to grapple with the long-term disruptions resulting from a pandemic that was exacerbated by the same reality TV host, and of course the ever-present worsening climate change.
And so, Mr. Trump is now trying to follow through on his campaign promises – which, in so many ways, will only make your life costlier, more unhealthy, less stable, and less secure from foreign influence. This is what 49% of America voted for.
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In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss Tesla being in the crosshairs of the Musk/Trump divorce, EV sales in Europe, a new Hyundai electric minivan, and more.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
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We now have a Patreon if you want to help us avoid more ads and invest more in our content. We have some awesome gifts for our Patreons and more coming.
Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 4:00 p.m. ET (or the video after 5 p.m. ET:
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Kia believes hatchbacks will make a comeback, starting with the EV4 later this year. The EV4 is Kia’s first electric hatch, and it’s expected to see big demand.
Kia aims to bring back hatchbacks with the new EV4
During its EV Day event earlier this year, Kia showcased four EV4 models, two sedans and two hatchbacks, all of which are fully electric.
The EV4 is part of Kia’s new entry-level EV lineup, which includes other models, including the EV3, EV5, and the upcoming EV2.
Following the launch of the EV4 sedan in Korea in March, Kia is preparing to introduce the hatchback version in Europe. The EV4 will kick off a series of new hatchbacks, which Kia believes could be its secret weapon as an electric alternative to the Volkswagen Golf and other popular models.
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Kia’s executive vice president, Ted Lee, believes there is still “big volume” for hatchbacks in Europe that’s up for grabs. During a recent interview with Autocar, Lee confirmed Kia would launch a new series of hatchbacks.
Kia EV4 hatchback (Source: Kia)
The EV4 is set to kick things off later this year. Unlike the sedan, Kia will build the EV4 hatch in Europe. It will be Kia’s first European-built EV at its plant in Slovakia. The sedan variant will be imported from South Korea.
Kia will launch the EV4 hatch in the UK in October. After that, the new K4 will join the series, which will also arrive in hatchback form. The K4, both hatch and sedan variants, will be imported from Kia’s plant in Mexico.
Kia EV4 hatchback GT-Line (Source: Kia)
According to Lee, Kia is in a “strong position in Europe,” especially in the UK. The Korean automaker is currently the third-best-selling brand in the UK, and it is only 300 units away from surpassing BMW.
Although he admitted new Chinese models are creating a “difficult market,” the company is doubling down on the region.
Kia EV4 hatchback (Source: Kia UK)
Kia will not get caught up in a price war, Lee explained. Instead, the company aims to continue driving the “sustainable growth” it has created over the past few years. Kia’s sales in Europe have increased by 30% since 2020.
Kia EV4 hatchback interior (Source: Kia)
After launching the EV3, Kia said the electric SUV “started with a bang” in January, becoming the UK’s most popular retail electric vehicle. Kia’s compact EV was the best-selling retail EV in the UK during the first quarter and the fourth-best-selling overall.
According to SMNT’s latest registration data, Kia brand sales are up 4% this year, with nearly 52,000 vehicles sold through May. It currently holds a 6.11% market share, up from 6.05% last year.
Kia EV3 Air in Frost Blue (Source: Kia UK)
The EV3 starts at £33,005 ($42,500) in the UK with two battery pack options: 58.3 kWh or 81.48 kWh. The standard battery provides a WLTP range of up to 30 km (270 miles), while the extended range option offers a driving range of 599 km (375 miles).
With the EV3 off to a strong start, the EV4 joining it, and its first electric van, the PV5, rolling out, Kia is laying the groundwork for the “sustainable growth” it’s seeking.
Yesterday, Electrek reported that the EV4 was off to a slow start in Korea with just 831 models sold. However, the disappointing first sales month was due to “limited inventory.”
Ahead of its official launch, we got a sneak peek of the EV4 hatchback after it was spotted driving in Korea (You can watch the video here).
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