MLB Power Rankings: Two AL teams crash NL’s party in top 5 MLB Power Rankings: Two AL teams crash NL’s party in top 5
The National League still dominates in Week 7 of our MLB Power Rankings, with the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets holding on to the top two sports on the list. But a pair of American League squads are making a dent.
The red-hot Detroit Tigers, owners of the AL’s best record, leapfrog the No. 4 San Diego Padres and the Chicago Cubs (down this week to No. 7), moving up from No. 5 to No. 3. The AL East-leading New York Yankees, meanwhile, reenter the top five after a No. 7 ranking last week.
Have the Tigers hit their ceiling?
With the Subway Series scheduled this weekend, will the Mets or the Yankees win temporary bragging rights in the Big Apple?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Buster Olney and Alden Gonzalez to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Record: 28-15
Previous ranking: 1
When the season began, Clayton Kershaw was a luxury. The Dodgers seemed to possess so much starting-pitching depth that it was safe to wonder where the future Hall of Famer would even fit. But things have changed. Shohei Ohtani‘s pitching rehab has gone slowly. Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and, more recently, Roki Sasaki have landed on the injured list with shoulder ailments. And when Kershaw makes his return to the rotation on Saturday, it will serve as a much-needed boost to a staff that is routinely staging bullpen games these days — just like it did for so much of October. — Gonzalez
Record: 28-16
Previous ranking: 2
Brett Baty began the season at the Mets’ regular second baseman but was sent down to Triple-A after hitting .204 with a .246 OBP in 19 games. He was called back up on May 5 when Jesse Winker went on the IL and has homered four times on this homestand, including the go-ahead home run in the seventh inning of a 2-1 victory over the Pirates on Tuesday. With Winker sidelined another five to seven weeks, Baty should continue to get plenty of playing time, including at his natural position of third base, with Mark Vientos sliding over to the DH role. — Schoenfield
Record: 29-15
Previous ranking: 5
The journey of Javier Baez is becoming one of the most unlikely baseball stories of this year, maybe this decade. Baez lost his starting role in August, and there were evaluators with other teams convinced the Tigers were about to release him. But not long after that demotion, Baez, long known as a player who reliably posts and plays, told the Tigers that he had been hurting. He had hip surgery and looked much better at the plate in spring training. When a wave of injuries created a need for a center fielder, Baez, a lifelong infielder, took to the position — and he is thriving, including hitting a walk-off homer against Boston on Tuesday. — Olney
Record: 27-15
Previous ranking: 3
Fernando Tatis Jr. turned on Kenley Jansen‘s 2-2 cutter late Tuesday night and immediately tossed his bat to the side. The baseball sailed a whopping 430 feet, breaking a 4-4 tie, electrifying Petco Park and giving Tatis the first walk-off homer of his career. By that point, Tatis was slashing .316/.389/.574 with 11 home runs and eight stolen bases, making him one of the game’s best performers thus far. Manny Machado (slashing .340/.410/.490) and Jackson Merrill (.412/.438/.676) are doing their part, too. Given the holes in the bottom of their lineup, star-level performances from star-level players are precisely what the Padres need. — Gonzalez
Record: 25-18
Previous ranking: 7
Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt is simple and direct in communicating with players, and one thing he has said to his team is: “I don’t make the lineup. You guys make the lineup with how you play.” And this is where the Yankees and Aaron Boone are with third base in the aftermath of Oswaldo Cabrera‘s devastating ankle injury: If one of the candidates hits, he will continue to play. The veteran on the clock now is DJ LeMahieu; if he hits, he’ll continue to get starts. If not, the Yankees’ search for third base help will continue. — Olney
Record: 25-18
Previous ranking: 8
Kyle Schwarber continues to rake, including homering twice to drive in all three runs in a 3-0 win over the Guardians on Sunday that completed a nice 5-1 road trip to Tampa and Cleveland. Schwarber entered Wednesday’s doubleheader tied for the MLB lead with 14 home runs while ranking sixth in OPS. After leading the majors with 200 strikeouts in 2022 and 215 in 2023 and striking out 197 times in 2024, Schwarber’s contact rate has climbed in 2025, and he has cut his strikeout rate of more than 29% the past three seasons all the way down to just over 20%. He could be headed to his third All-Star Game. — Schoenfield
Record: 25-19
Previous ranking: 4
Justin Turner is hitting under .200, but the 40-year-old veteran delivered in a big way on Tuesday. After pinch hitting earlier in the game, Turner delivered a two-run walk-off double in a 5-4 win over the Marlins. “I’m happy for him. It’s a big moment,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. “He’s done it so many times. It’s not fun watching a great player struggle, but he got a moment and he did it.” That game was also the MLB debut for catcher/DH Moises Ballesteros, the Cubs’ preseason No. 2 prospect. Called up to replace the injured Ian Happ, Ballesteros was hitting .368/.420/.522 in Triple-A. He served as the DH for the Cubs and went 0-for-4, although he lived up to his reputation as a strong contact hitter by putting the ball in play all four at-bats. — Schoenfield
Record: 25-19
Previous ranking: 6
Giants: The Giants suffered a four-game losing streak recently, a stretch in which they were outscored by a grand total of… five runs. Even when the Giants lose games, they continue to be competitive, which speaks well to their prospects in 2025. Just as encouraging: Willy Adames and Justin Verlander, their two big free agent additions last offseason, have seemingly rounded into form. Adames’ slash line was just .208/.292/.300 through the month of April, but he’s slashing .264/.339/.528 in May. Verlander, meanwhile, had a 6.75 ERA through his first four starts but has a 2.76 ERA over his past five. — Gonzalez
Record: 23-19
Previous ranking: 9
A Mariners team that enjoyed a remarkable run of health from its starting pitchers last year placed another one of their starters on the injured list Wednesday, when Bryce Miller was diagnosed with a bout of elbow inflammation, joining George Kirby and Logan Gilbert on the shelf. The news came on the heels of a recent four-game losing streak — which followed an 8-2 stretch. It emphasized something we should have probably learned by now — that nobody is going to run away with the American League West this season. — Gonzalez
Record: 25-18
Previous ranking: 13
In the midst of his April struggles, Emmanuel Clase revealed to the Guardians that he had some shoulder soreness — nothing debilitating but something that was bothering him. Cleveland backed off him, and he did not pitch for five days. Since that brief in-season break, Clase has allowed only one earned run in eight appearances, and the Cleveland bullpen that was so dominant last year has its closer nearing his previous form. Meanwhile, the Guardians’ rotation seems to be improving, with the return of Shane Bieber getting closer by the week. — Olney
Record: 23-21
Previous ranking: 10
The D-backs split a four-game home series against the Dodgers over the weekend, during which their hitters scored 20 runs and their pitchers allowed 25. It basically encapsulated their season. The D-backs’ offense has been a force this year, ranking third in the majors in OPS, fourth in homers and fifth in runs per game. But their pitching staff has a 4.71 ERA, seventh-highest in the sport. And though it’s easy to see Zac Gallen and Eduardo Rodriguez pitching better out of the rotation, the concern lies in the bullpen, especially with A.J. Puk out an undetermined amount of time with elbow stiffness. Some good news on that front: Justin Martinez, their dynamic closer, could return as early as this week. — Gonzalez
Record: 25-20
Previous ranking: 11
Top prospect Jac Caglianone is doing his part to put himself into the conversation for possible promotion later this season, crushing the pitching in Double-A. If he is going to help the Royals in the big leagues this year, it’ll likely be as an outfielder, and Kansas City has started using him twice a week in that capacity in the minors. He has work to do in refining his reads and in his ability to get good jumps, and longtime K.C. coach Rusty Kuntz is overseeing the effort to help Caglianone defensively. Caglianone is very open to feedback and has been spending time in batting practice getting reads on the ball off the bat. — Olney
Record: 22-23
Previous ranking: 12
The Rafael Devers situation is settled: Unless something changes dramatically, he’ll continue to serve as the designated hitter — something he has done very well this year — and the Red Sox will find other solutions at first base. Maybe the only person who has the power to alter the trajectory of this situation is Devers himself, by going to manager Alex Cora and volunteering to take ground balls. One AL evaluator familiar with the situation is shocked that Devers hasn’t been taking grounders anyway, to give Cora alternatives at first base in the event of injuries to other players and the need for a stopgap solution. — Olney
Record: 21-22
Previous ranking: 14
After starting 0-7, the Braves reached .500 for the first time with Tuesday’s 5-2 win over the Nationals. The Braves went 7-3 over a 10-game stretch, with three of those wins coming in walk-off fashion and another coming in extra innings. Rookie catcher Drake Baldwin continues to sizzle at the plate, going 3-for-4 on Tuesday with a home run and double to raise his line to .329/.382/.557. After starting the season 1-for-18, Tuesday’s big game capped a 20-game stretch where he hit .423 with four home runs. — Schoenfield
Record: 24-20
Previous ranking: 23
Here come the Cardinals. St. Louis ran off nine wins in a row heading into Wednesday’s doubleheader against the Phillies — two over the Mets, three-game sweeps of the Pirates and Nationals and then taking the first game in Philly. The pitching staff had a 2.00 ERA over that nine-game stretch, allowing just three home runs in 81 innings. The offense hit .267 with 10 home runs with Willson Contreras leading the way, hitting .367 with three home runs and 10 RBIs. Nolan Arenado and Victor Scott II had OBPs over .400 during the win streak while Ivan Herrera returned after more than a month on the IL to help boost the lineup as well. — Schoenfield
Record: 23-20
Previous ranking: 22
The cliché long applied to Byron Buxton might never be more true than it is right now: When he’s on the field, he’s a great player. Going into the Twins’ Wednesday doubleheader in Baltimore, Buxton had multihit games in 11 of the team’s previous 20, and in that span, he was hitting .316, with six homers, 15 runs and 18 RBIs to spearhead Minnesota’s recent win streak. As usual, Buxton is playing strong defense in the outfield, with positive ratings in both outs above average and defensive runs saved. — Olney
Record: 22-20
Previous ranking: 16
The Astros’ offense is still without Yordan Alvarez and still waiting for the likes of Jose Altuve and Christian Walker to get going. But the month of May has provided some encouraging signs from less-established players who really need to take another step forward this season, specifically Jake Meyers, Jeremy Pena, Yandy Diaz and Isaac Paredes. Those four have combined to slash .356/.415/.561 with eight home runs this month. The Astros are just 6-6 in May, but they’re still well within striking distance in a wide-open American League West. And they’d be in far worse position without the production of those aforementioned players. — Gonzalez
Record: 23-21
Previous ranking: 19
An offense still trying to find its footing placed its best hitter, Corey Seager, on the injured list for the second time in less than two weeks on Tuesday. Seager is dealing with a hamstring strain, the same injury that kept him out from April 23 to May 2. During that stretch, the Rangers lost eight of 10, winning one game by a 15-2 score but combining for 14 runs in their other nine. Their offense doesn’t seem to flow quite the same without Seager, who’s slashing .300/.346/.520 in 26 games this season. His middle-infield partner, Marcus Semien, needs to step up, now more than ever. — Gonzalez
Record: 22-21
Previous ranking: 18
The rotation is a concern and their defense is a mess, but boy is the A’s offense fun. And few represent that better than Jacob Wilson, the 23-year-old shortstop who’s making an early case for the American League Rookie of the Year Award. Wilson returned to his roots in Los Angeles on Tuesday and went 4-for-5 with two home runs at Dodger Stadium, propelling the A’s to an 11-1 rout over the defending World Series champs. That performance put Wilson’s slash line at .363/.389/.513 — a 168-plate-appearance sample in which he had drawn just seven walks but had struck out only nine times. Fun. — Gonzalez
Record: 21-23
Previous ranking: 17
The Brewers aren’t going to go anywhere unless Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich start to produce better results — namely, getting on base more often. Chourio is hitting .265 with seven home runs, but has drawn just four walks with 37 strikeouts, giving him an OBP under .300. Yelich also has seven home runs but is hitting .205 with a .301 OBP. He’s striking out 28% of the time, a sizable 10% increase from last season. The Brewers certainly have other big holes — they’re last in OPS at third base, for example — but they need their two big stars to carry this offense. — Schoenfield
Record: 20-24
Previous ranking: 15
The Reds scuffled through a 2-8 stretch that saw Hunter Greene land on the IL with a groin strain and Noelvi Marte, who had been hitting well, land on the IL with an oblique strain. Three of those losses were in extra innings, which dropped the Reds to 0-5 in extra frames, but the offense was also a big culprit, getting shut out three times and scoring just one run in three other games. They managed a 13-9 victory over the Astros, scoring 10 runs in the first inning, with seven of those coming off a struggling Lance McCullers Jr., who is trying to make a comeback for Houston. — Schoenfield
Record: 21-21
Previous ranking: 21
The Blue Jays’ sweep of the Mariners in Seattle last weekend was a classic example of the American League’s parity. Just when the Jays’ offense had settled into something of a malaise, they go in and dominate the AL West front-runner. There are likely to be more ebbs and flows like this during the summer as Toronto defines itself. If the Jays ever decide to move veterans before the trade deadline, George Springer is one player who could draw interest in a very, very thin outfield market. He is off to a strong start in his age-35 season while making $24 million this year and next, and if Toronto aims to reshape its roster, his production and experience would be attractive to other teams. — Olney
Record: 19-23
Previous ranking: 20
When the Rays announced they would play their home games at Tampa’s Steinbrenner Field this season, the assumption was that the team’s hitters — who had previously competed in the pitcher’s haven that is Tropicana Field — would get a nice bump in a park thought to have a prevailing wind to right field. But that has not always been the case up to this point. The Rays’ hitters rank 19th among the 30 teams in wRC+ in their home park, although they are tied for eighth in home runs. Brandon Lowe, Christopher Morel, Danny Jansen and Taylor Walls are all batting under .200 at home so far. — Olney
Record: 15-26
Previous ranking: 25
Even before the season started, it seemed as if the Orioles would need to hit enough to make up for their pitching challenges. Despite the surprisingly slow start for the offense, that continues to be the case, as there are few signs of a rotation turnaround. There are some ugly numbers. Opposing hitters carried an OPS of .920 in Camden Yards this season going into Wednesday’s doubleheader. In Baltimore’s losses, the team had an ERA of 8.59. The team’s record in games in which the Orioles scored fewer than six runs: 5-19. — Olney
Record: 18-26
Previous ranking: 24
After getting close to .500 at 17-19, the Nationals dropped seven in a row, scoring two or fewer runs in five of those losses. CJ Abrams has been the one player producing at the plate, with three three-hit games in that stretch to push his average over .300. Since the World Series season in 2019, the only qualified Nationals to hit .300 were Juan Soto and Trea Turner in the shortened 2020 season and then Soto in 2021. In the history of the Expos/Nationals franchise, the only shortstops to hit .300 were Turner in 2020, Cristian Guzman in 2008 and Mark Grudzielanek in 1996. — Schoenfield
Record: 17-25
Previous ranking: 28
From April 11 to May 4, the Angels navigated a brutal stretch in which their offense posted a .574 OPS, their pitchers put up a 6.08 ERA and their defense committed 13 errors, a 21-game stretch in which they accumulated only five victories. The Angels have since been better. More competitive, at least. They took two of three from the Blue Jays, hung tough with the Orioles, then played back-to-back tight games in San Diego, coming all the way back against lights-out closer Robert Suarez on Monday and watching Fernando Tatis Jr. walk-off Kenley Jansen on Tuesday. The Angels are simply not being embarrassed at this point. That’s progress. — Gonzalez
Record: 15-29
Previous ranking: 26
The Pirates fired manager Derek Shelton, sitting in last place in the division with a 12-26 record. Bench coach Don Kelly took over as interim manager. A seven-game losing streak was the final straw. Shelton was in his sixth season as manager and after finishing 76-86 the past two seasons, the club had higher expectations for 2025 — although ownership and management did little in the offseason to improve the club. “I believe he was the right person for the job when he was hired. I also believe that a change is now necessary,” GM Ben Cherington said in an odd statement. In more exciting news, Paul Skenes announced that he’s committed to pitch for Team USA in next year’s World Baseball Classic. He’s the second player to publicly commit to playing, alongside team captain Aaron Judge. — Schoenfield
Record: 16-26
Previous ranking: 27
If you’re looking at an early potential All-Star for the Marlins, it might be outfielder Kyle Stowers, who entered Wednesday hitting .287/.365/.507 with eight home runs and 27 RBIs. Acquired last July with Connor Norby from the Orioles for starter Trevor Rogers, that trade is looking like a win for the Marlins. Stowers is whiffing 30% of the time, so it would be nice to cut that down a bit, but he ranks tied for 10th in the majors in barrels (a batted ball with an exit velocity of at least 98 mph and an optimal launch angle). The last Marlins outfielders to make an All-Star Game were Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna in 2017. — Schoenfield
Record: 14-29
Previous ranking: 29
A staffer with another AL team walked away from a recent series against the White Sox impressed with the young arms that Chicago has compiled in its rotation. Jonathan Cannon, Sean Burke and Shane Smith have all had varying degrees of success early this year; and in the end, the development of the pitching is probably the most important thing that will happen in the organization this year. But the staffer also wondered aloud if the end of the season could be more challenging for the Sox, because that trio will be bumping against innings limits. — Olney
Record: 7-36
Previous ranking: 30
A team that had already reached rock bottom absorbed a demoralizing blow on Saturday, while losing to the division-rival Padres by a 21-0 score. It marked the Rockies’ eighth consecutive loss, putting them at 6-33 with a minus-134 run-differential — on the heels of back-to-back 100-loss seasons. Less than 24 hours later, Bud Black was fired, ending an eight-plus-year run as manager. Changes like these are exceedingly rare for the Rockies. The last time they made an in-season managerial firing like this, it happened to Clint Hurdle in 2009. Now Hurdle is back with the team as its interim bench coach. It speaks to the insular tendencies that many believe have doomed this franchise. — Gonzalez
The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.
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Pamela Maldonado
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
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