Handing out grades for every full-time Cup driver: From four A’s to a painful F
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Neil Paine
NASCAR’s All-Star Race festivities are in North Wilkesboro, North Carolina this weekend — a track where the stars always came out to shine in an earlier era of Cup Series history. And just like in any other sport, All-Star time represents a chance to take stock of what has happened in the 2025 season so far, recognizing the drivers who have excelled and the ones who haven’t quite met their expectations.
To do that, I’ve graded every full-time Cup Series driver through a weighted combination of key performance indicators — not only using wins or standings points, but a more complete picture of how each driver is performing and, just as importantly, whether they’re meeting preseason expectations.
The formula included a variety of components, each standardized in order to compare drivers on an even scale. In rough order of importance, they were:
• Adjusted points+ index (a measure of performance where Cup average is always 100)
• Total wins
• Standings rank
• Average driver rating per race
• Average finish (indexed relative to average)
• Performance vs. preseason expectations (based on a combination of team/car quality and a driver’s own previous track record)
• Head-to-head record vs. teammates (and the strength of those teammates)
• Rate of finishing races (indexed relative to average)
From there, I created a weighted “combo” score and assigned letter grades accordingly — reflecting not only raw results, but also context, consistency and surprise value. (Remember, this isn’t just a straight ranking of drivers — you can find that here. Instead, they’re being graded on a curve relative to not only the field, but also themselves and their team.)
With all of that in mind, here’s how the field stacks up ahead of Sunday’s All-Star Race (8 p.m. ET, FS1) and at the sport’s midseason:
Jump to a grade tier:
A | B | C | D | F
Grade A tier
No. 5 Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports: A+
2025 stats: 3 wins, 8 top-fives, 9 top-10s, 9.8 avg. finish
Standings rank: 1st
Adjusted pts+ index (100 = Cup avg.): 241
Avg. driver rating (70 = Cup avg.): 102.6
Another season, another elite drive for Larson — just business as usual for the No. 5 car. Larson found his way into Victory Lane at Homestead, Bristol and, most recently, Kansas, the latter two of which saw him record a pair of near-perfect driver ratings (149.6 and 149.7, respectively) in the span of four races. Further, he has been an immovable fixture up front with nine top-10s in 12 races.
According to pts+, Larson is tracking for his best season (241) since winning the Cup Series title in 2021 (244), and nobody in the series is capable of super-dominant runs quite like Larson. He’s the championship favorite for a reason.
2025 stats: 3 wins, 6 top-fives, 8 top-10s, 11.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 3rd
Adjusted pts+ index: 224
Avg. driver rating: 92.8
This would have been an A-plus when Bell was racking up three consecutive wins earlier in the season, but a recent run of “only” five top-10s in the past eight races drops Bell down to A-grade status. This has still been an impressive year for the 30-year-old Bell, who is having a career season, already matching his high for wins less than a third of the way into the schedule.
Denny Hamlin fans might not want to hear this, but Bell is the No. 1 driver at JGR now, with an 86-58 record against teammates head-to-head over the past two years.
No. 24 William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports: A
2025 stats: 1 win, 5 top-fives, 7 top-10s, 10.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 2nd
Adjusted pts+ index: 202
Avg. driver rating: 103.9
After a 2024 season that, while still good enough to make the Championship 4, wasn’t quite as statistically dominant as in 2023, Byron has possibly been the most consistently excellent driver in Cup this season. (Witness his series lead in average running position at 10.3.) Despite Larson’s near perfection at Kansas, Byron still leads the series in average driver rating, and his second straight win at the Daytona 500 in February solidified his place in the history of the Great American Race.
Even on the same team with fellow stars such as Larson and Chase Elliott, Byron has a 22-14 head-to-head record against his fellow Hendrick drivers.
No. 11 Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing: A-
2025 stats: 2 wins, 5 top-fives, 6 top-10s, 15.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 7th
Adjusted pts+ index: 178
Avg. driver rating: 87.6
Any notions that Hamlin’s on-track career would start to wind down as he aged (he’s 44) and took on other business ventures have proved to be wrong. If anything, Hamlin’s 2025 form — he has two wins, with his best pts+ index since 2021 — shows how hungry he is to shed the label of “NASCAR’s Greatest Driver Without A Cup Title.”
Will this finally be his year? He has seemed ready for that breakthrough many times before, only for the “black cat of death” to cross his path again and again. But there’s no doubt Hamlin will be squarely in the mix at the end of the season.
Grade B Tier
No. 12 Ryan Blaney, Team Penske: B+
2025 stats: 0 wins, 5 top-fives, 6 top-10s, 16.1 avg. finish
Standings rank: 5th
Adjusted pts+ index: 148
Avg. driver rating: 92.6
No star driver has been more snakebit this year than Blaney, who has no wins and nearly as many DNFs (four) as top-five finishes (five). But the overtaking speed is still there; Blaney has a 92.6 average driver rating — fifth best in Cup — and the best per-race pass differential (+13.5) for any driver with more than half of their passes taking place under green and among the top 15 cars in the field. With greater reliability, Blaney ought to contend for another championship by season’s end.
No. 9 Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports: B+
2025 stats: 0 wins, 3 top-fives, 6 top-10s, 11.7 avg. finish
Standings rank: 4th
Adjusted pts+ index: 143
Avg. driver rating: 84.6
There is a paradox to Elliott in recent seasons: Despite his popularity and superstar reputation — and in contrast with his championship form of 2020 — he seems to have traded dominance for increased consistency. In 2025, this has manifested itself in a fourth-place spot in the standings and consistently solid finishes, but no wins and a lack of real contention for them on a weekly basis.
That’s why he doesn’t grade higher; Elliott is well on track to make the playoffs and even advance in them, but at a certain point we need to see the Elliott of old again.
2025 stats: 0 wins, 3 top-fives, 4 top-10s, 13.7 avg. finish
Standings rank: 6th
Adjusted pts+ index: 138
Avg. driver rating: 93.4
Reddick has driven well enough to score an A, but it hasn’t manifested in a victory yet. Only Hendrick teammates Byron and Larson boast a higher average driver rating, and Reddick’s average running position of 10.6 ranks second to Byron this year.
He has come close to winning a few times, so it could happen eventually (he has won multiple races in each of the previous three seasons), though a recent streak of four finishes in 14th or worse isn’t ideal.
No. 21 Josh Berry, Wood Brothers Racing: B+
2025 stats: 1 win, 2 top-fives, 3 top-10s, 21.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 17th
Adjusted pts+ index: 103
Avg. driver rating: 80.5
This feel-good grade is all about outperforming expectations. While the iconic Wood Bros. No. 21 did win a race — and therefore appeared in the playoffs — with Harrison Burton at the wheel last season, that win came at the notoriously chaotic Daytona night race … after Burton already had learned he would not be returning to the team in 2025. Berry’s win this season in the 21, by comparison, came at Las Vegas — in theory, a much more predictable mile-and-a-half track (and therefore a place where it’s much tougher to fluke into a win).
Beyond just the victory, Berry is crushing what was expected in pts+ and driver rating, whether the comparison point was his own previous career or what the once-proud Wood Bros. team had gotten in recent years.
No. 22 Joey Logano, Team Penske: B
2025 stats: 1 win, 1 top-fives, 3 top-10s, 17.3 avg. finish
Standings rank: 9th
Adjusted pts+ index: 114
Avg. driver rating: 89.2
Confusingly, Logano’s 2025 season could warrant a higher or lower grade here. On the positive side, he does have a win, picking up the checkered flag at Texas a few weeks ago, and he has posted driver ratings of 89.2 or higher in eight of 12 races — including four in the triple-digits. But that win was his only top-five finish of the season, and he has only a pair of top-10s outside of it. Unlike his teammate Blaney, Logano can’t blame crashes or blown engines either; he has simply not been consistent in his finishes relative to his potential during those races. It’s something that will need to be cleaned up as the season progresses, but then again, nobody has a better track record of in-season improvement than the three-time champ.
2025 stats: 1 win, 1 top-fives, 3 top-10s, 17.3 avg. finish
Standings rank: 14th
Adjusted pts+ index: 114
Avg. driver rating: 82.8
Despite being a playoff driver in both 2022 and 2024, Cindric has often felt like the forgotten man at Penske, driving in the shadow of a couple of all-timers in Logano and Blaney. But this is shaping up to be a career year for the driver of the No. 2 car, tying his career best in pts+ while blowing away his previous norms in average driver rating.
Better yet, Cindric continues to refine his skills as an all-around driver; instead of a superspeedway specialist who is solid on road courses and subpar everywhere else, he has an 88.4 driver rating on ovals this season. (Compare that to his previous career high of 67.8 from 2022.)
No. 19 Chase Briscoe, Joe Gibbs Racing: B
2025 stats: 0 wins, 4 top-fives, 5 top-10s, 15.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 13th
Adjusted pts+ index: 134
Avg. driver rating: 77.1
Taking over the No. 19 ride at JGR for retiring legend Martin Truex Jr., there was always the expectation that Briscoe would show great improvement from his previous years spent at the fading Stewart-Haas Racing. And that has been true this year, with Briscoe on pace for the best season of his career by far.
Although Briscoe doesn’t have a win yet, he has been a factor in a handful of races and his 19-17 head-to-head record against JGR teammates is better than both Hamlin this year (18-18) and Truex last year (49-59).
No. 48 Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports: B-
2025 stats: 0 wins, 2 top-fives, 7 top-10s, 16.9 avg. finish
Standings rank: 8th
Adjusted pts+ index: 134
Avg. driver rating: 83.1
After years as the fourth wheel at Hendrick — having to share a garage with Jimmie Johnson (whose No. 48 car he later inherited), Larson, Elliott and Byron at various times — Bowman won a race in 2024 (only his second of the Next-Gen car era) and began to close the gap against his prominent teammates.
But that progress has stalled some in 2025: Bowman’s pts+ is 61 points behind his teammate average, his driver rating lags by 13.9 points and he has his worst head-to-head record against teammates (12-24) since going 8-22 as Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s injury replacement in the No. 88 car in 2016. At the same time, Bowman would comfortably make the playoffs on points if the season ended today, so it’s not all bad news for the 48.
No. 1 Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing: B-
2025 stats: 0 wins, 2 top-fives, 6 top-10s, 13.9 avg. finish
Standings rank: 11th
Adjusted pts+ index: 145
Avg. driver rating: 77.6
Chastain is sort of the opposite of Reddick — aside from a lack of wins, his steady finishes have been very good, reminiscent of his early breakout with Trackhouse in 2022 and 2023 … but the fundamentals are less impressive. Chastain’s driver rating and 16.8 average running position are OK, but nothing special, and certainly less than we would have expected from a driver who seemed as if he were on the cusp of stardom as recently as a few years ago.
It would help to see Chastain win a race when he wasn’t already eliminated from championship consideration for the first time since June 2023.
2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-fives, 6 top-10s, 15.5 avg. finish
Standings rank: 12th
Adjusted pts+ index: 122
Avg. driver rating: 76.6
Buescher has quietly done his job and maintained playoff position in the standings, rising above the up-and-down performances of his RFK teammates. For that alone, he deserves a B-tier grade, but he is dragged down a bit simply by the standards he set in the past few seasons. In 2023 and 2024, Buescher won four races with a pts+ index of 143 and an average driver rating of 82.3, the best stretch of performances in his decade-long Cup career.
This year’s numbers are tracking for something a notch below what we’re used to from the No. 17 car, but that’s as much a statement on Buescher’s breakout in previous years as anything happening in 2025.
No. 60 Ryan Preece, RFK Racing: B-
2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-fives, 4 top-10s, 19.8 avg. finish
Standings rank: 16th
Adjusted pts+ index: 97
Avg. driver rating: 80.2
Speaking of RFK drivers, Preece earns a spot here in his first season with the team, on the strength of his solid fundamentals: a driver rating well above the average for both the Cup Series and his teammates (who collectively sit at just 69.1), an average running position (15.8) that ranks 12th best among regular drivers and a .500 record (12-12) against teammates head-to-head.
Aside from a seventh-place run at Kansas, Preece’s finishes haven’t been as good as earlier in the year, but it’s still fair to say he is beating expectations for the No. 60 in its first year running a full schedule.
Grade C tier
2025 stats: 0 wins, 2 top-fives, 4 top-10s, 19.6 avg. finish
Standings rank: 10th
Adjusted pts+ index: 102
Avg. driver rating: 85.0
Wallace was tracking for a career year (and a much better grade) about a month ago, but it has been a struggle for the No. 23 lately. After a pair of top-five finishes at Homestead and Martinsville, Wallace has scored only one top-10 finish in the past five races, with three finishes outside the top 20 in that span, capped off by a pair of consecutive crashes at Texas and Kansas.
The slump has left him barely above average in pts+ and with a bad 11-14 record against his 23XI teammates — but there’s still reason to believe. His driver rating (eighth best) and average running position (sixth best) suggest he has been unlucky, but a ranking like this still has to assign some weight to actual results rather than potential ones.
2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-fives, 4 top-10s, 18.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 19th
Adjusted pts+ index: 91
Avg. driver rating: 56.1
Nemechek earns a C-plus for now, in part because his near-average pts+ and top-20 standings placement represents a massive leap over what we saw out of the No. 42 car in any of the previous few seasons. But under the hood, predictive metrics such as driver rating are less sold on whether this form can continue.
No. 38 Zane Smith, Front Row Motorsports: C+
2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 1 top-10, 18.8 avg. finish
Standings rank: 23rd
Adjusted Pts+ index: 80
Avg. Driver Rating: 64.1
Though his numbers won’t exactly wow you, Smith has improved in his second full Cup season — his typical finish is now better than the Cup average, he has a positive head-to-head record (13-11) against his teammates and a slightly better driver rating than teammate Todd Gilliland had in the No. 38 car last season. He also started on pole at Talladega and led some laps at Homestead as well.
No. 8 Kyle Busch, Richard Childress Racing: C
2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-five, 4 top-10s, 18.1 avg. finish
Standings rank: 18th
Adjusted pts+ index: 96
Avg. driver rating: 75.8
The cases of Busch and Nemechek illustrate how important expectations are to consider when grading NASCAR drivers. Despite near-identical results, one man’s surprisingly half-decent start to the season can be a supremely frustrating year for another — as is the case with Busch, for whom an early run of three straight top-10s in the first four races is now a distant memory.
More recently, Busch has one top-10 in the past eight races, with five finishes of 20th or worse over that same stretch. The hope has been that Busch’s rare winless 2024 (the first time he hadn’t driven to Victory Lane in 20 years) was simply a down year for one of the greatest stock car drivers, but it’s looking more like an average performance is about what we can expect from the No. 8 car at this point.
2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-five, 2 top-10s, 17.3 avg. finish
Standings rank: 15th
Adjusted pts+ index: 91
Avg. driver rating: 59.0
Stenhouse is difficult to grade, because it’s tough to say whether he’s driving well or not. On the one hand, he hasn’t finished worse than 25th in any race this year, with eight appearances among the top 20 in 12 starts (including two top-10s and a top-five at Atlanta — no surprise for the superspeedway master). On the other hand, he has been the opposite of dominant, even in most of those decent runs — his driver rating has broken 90 only once, 80 twice and 70 three times, with a dreadful 51.3 mark or worse in half of his races.
So while Stenhouse would sneak into the playoffs on points if the season ended today, it’s doubtful that will remain true (for many reasons), and he doesn’t have the form of a winning driver unless he can luck into a win at one of the two remaining drafting-style tracks before the playoff cut.
No. 3 Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing: C
2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 3 top-10s, 18.4 avg. finish
Standings rank: 22nd
Adjusted pts+ index: 86
Avg. driver rating: 62.9
Dillon is the very definition of a C-grade driver this season. Having long since shed the expectations of being anything more than a mid-pack mainstay who can occasionally play spoiler with a chaotic win, Dillon is actually doing better this year than in either 2023 or 2024, when he ranked among the most disappointing drivers in the Cup Series.
In 2025, he has seven finishes of 18th or better, and his driver rating has strayed outside the 60s only five times in 12 races. He still might need to wreck the field to even think about making the playoffs, but Dillon has nonetheless been far from terrible.
No. 34 Todd Gilliland, Front Row Motorsports: C
2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 2 top-10s, 18.8 avg. finish
Standings rank: 24th
Adjusted pts+ index: 82
Avg. driver rating: 62.1
Swapping to the No. 34 from former teammate Michael McDowell, Gilliland has held steady in his overall form as compared with a year ago. On the plus side, his average finish is now 4% better than the Cup average, versus 8% worse last season; on the minus, his driver rating is down from 64.3.
But while Gilliland’s first year as Front Row’s lead driver has had ups and downs, he’ll go into the All-Star Race coming off an 11th-place finish at Texas and a 12th-place finish at Kansas.
2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 0 top-10s, 19.1 avg. finish
Standings rank: 21st
Adjusted pts+ index: 77
Avg. driver rating: 63.1
Like many drivers in this C-tier group, McDowell’s mark reflects a complicated picture of performance relative to many different expectations. After seven years driving for Bob Jenkins at Front Row, where he had experienced his greatest highs as a driver — winning the Daytona 500 — and transformed himself from a journeyman to a perennial playoff contender and race winner, McDowell moved to Spire for 2025, where he has beaten teammates head-to-head (15-9 record) and improved vastly on Zane Smith’s numbers behind the wheel of the No. 71 a year ago.
At the same time, he has no top-10s and uniformly subpar metrics relative to Cup average this season.
No. 77 Carson Hocevar, Spire Motorsports: C-
2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-five, 2 top-10s, 22.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 20th
Adjusted pts+ index: 85
Avg. driver rating: 73.2
Hocevar, 22, has had his flashes of brilliance this season — including a pole at Texas, leading laps in half of his starts (he’s currently riding a streak of four straight races led), and three different races with a triple-digit driver rating. But Hocevar earns a C-minus because of what he has left to learn, from greater respect for his fellow racers to better racecraft to turn that above-average driver rating into something better than a 22.2 average finish.
Hocevar’s head-to-head record against teammates has gone from a incredible 51-21 last season to 10-14 this year, and though that reflects the improved talent of teammates McDowell and Justin Haley, they are still collectively below .500 against all other drivers — yet Hocevar can’t consistently finish ahead of them despite his speed.
No. 99 Daniel Suarez, Trackhouse Racing: C-
2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-five, 3 top-10s, 20.9 avg. finish
Standings rank: 27th
Adjusted pts+ index: 87
Avg. driver rating: 64.8
Coming off one of the best seasons of his career (with a memorable three-wide photo finish win at Atlanta and a second-round playoff run), Suarez was expected to further build on that success in 2025. Instead, it has been an uneven start to the season, with the No. 99 car finishing outside the top 30 more times (four) than it has been inside the top 10 (three).
The only things keeping Suarez’s grade from dipping into D territory are that his underlying performance hasn’t necessarily been much different — his driver rating is up from 64.6 — and that Trackhouse as a whole has been much worse in 2025. Rather than only Suarez losing ground, his average teammate pts+ has also dipped from 127 to 88. In part, that has been due to the addition of a third chartered car, but the net result has been Suarez carrying a far better head-to-head record (15-11) against teammates than the 13-23 mark he had a year ago.
Grade D tier
No. 54 Ty Gibbs, Joe Gibbs Racing: D+
2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-five, 2 top-10s, 20.6 avg. finish
Standings rank: 26th
Adjusted Pts+ index: 80
Avg. Driver Rating: 64.9
The Ty Gibbs breakout appeared to be upon us at various times last season, and though he fell off down the stretch of the 2024 schedule, expectations were high that the 22-year-old would win his first Cup race — at the very least, if not more — in 2025. But that hasn’t happened; if anything, Gibbs has taken a nosedive in practically all of his major indicators so far this year.
On a team with the equipment to contend in every race, it has been highly disappointing for Gibbs to remain winless with a single top-five, two top-10s and only four races with an above-average driver rating.
No. 10 Ty Dillon, Kaulig Racing: D+
2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 0 top-10s, 22.3 avg. finish
Standings rank: 30th
Adjusted Pts+ index: 58
Avg. Driver Rating: 50.0
Dillon has improved his pts+ and driver rating from the last time we saw him as a full-time Cup entrant, with Spire in 2023, but he still ranks fifth-to-last in average driver rating among regular drivers this season.
No. 4 Noah Gragson, Front Row Motorsports: D
2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-five, 2 top-10s, 22.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 31st
Adjusted pts+ index: 73
Avg. driver rating: 61.2
Gragson rescued his career in Stewart-Haas’ swan song last season, following a season from hell with Legacy Motor Club in 2023. But after moving on to Front Row for 2025, Gragson has taken a tumble backward again.
Granted, the fall hasn’t been as steep as it was in ’23, but he looks worse by every major indicator, and he has not kept pace with his new teammates — posting a 9-15 head-to-head record (a year after going a solid 60-48 against his SHR counterparts).
No. 43 Erik Jones, Legacy Motor Club: D
2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-five, 1 top-10, 22.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 29th
Adjusted pts+ index: 68
Avg. driver rating: 57.1
While Legacy teammate John Hunter Nemechek has improved this season, Jones has stayed roughly the same in his performance level as the past few years. A driver who once had the talent to secure a full-time ride at JGR, and then rose above his equipment with Richard Petty Motorsports, seems to have stalled out now.
2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 3 top-10s, 22.5 avg. finish
Standings rank: 25th
Adjusted pts+ index: 72
Avg. driver rating: 62.9
Allmendinger’s celebrated return to a full-time Cup drive in 2025 has been hit or (mostly) miss. Though he has a trio of top-10s (at Las Vegas, Homestead and Bristol), his overall performance is quite a bit lower than it was in partial duty over the previous handful of seasons. Allmendinger is just 4-8 head-to-head against his Kaulig teammates this season, after going a combined 48-31 versus Kaulig competition from 2021 to 2024.
No. 7 Justin Haley, Spire Motorsports: D-
2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-five, 1 top-10, 21.1 avg. finish
Standings rank: 28th
Adjusted pts+ index: 65
Avg. driver rating: 58.2
What began as a potentially promising 2025 season for Haley — being paired with Kevin Harvick’s former championship-winning crew chief, Rodney Childers — has already gone sideways, with the recent divorce between Childers and Spire only nine races into their partnership. Aside from that shake-up, Haley’s results are somewhat better than they were when split between Spire and Rick Ware Racing last season … though they are far from what Haley seemed he might be capable of in an earlier phase of his career.
No. 41 Cole Custer, Haas Factory Team: D-
2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 0 top-10s, 25.6 avg. finish
Standings rank: 34th
Adjusted pts+ index: 42
Avg. driver rating: 45.5
The 2023 Xfinity Series champion made his return to Cup as the lone driver for the team formerly known as SHR (where Custer drove in 2020-22), and the results have been as much of a struggle as you might expect. Only two full-time drivers have a worse average driver rating.
2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 0 top-10s, 24.7 avg. finish
Standings rank: 32nd
Adjusted pts+ index: 47
Avg. driver rating: 48.1
Despite having a good team behind him at 23XI, Herbst’s first full season at the Cup level has been trending in the wrong direction: After four top-20 finishes in his first five starts of the season, Herbst boasts one (a 14th-place run at Texas) in the seven races since. He has gone just 8-17 head-to-head against a combination of Tyler Reddick, Bubba Wallace and Corey Heim this year.
Grade F tier
2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 1 top-10, 26.8 avg. finish
Standings rank: 35th
Adjusted pts+ index: 45
Avg. driver rating: 45.1
This is one of the most painful grades to hand out because Van Gisbergen had been such an exciting and promising driver in part-time action over the preceding two seasons. Though a decent amount of that came at his specialty in road courses — where he won his Cup debut at Chicago, and nearly won at The Glen before Buescher tracked him down with a final-lap pass — he also ran eight non-road course races in Cup last year, plus a full 33-race Xfinity schedule in which he appeared to acquit himself decently well on other track types.
All of which makes it more puzzling that SVG has such terrible numbers in 2025, including the second-worst average driver rating in the Cup Series. Though he led 23 laps and posted a 120.6 rating at COTA in March, that was his lone finish of better than 20th, and he carries an average rating below 50 at ovals (36.0), short tracks (28.3) and superspeedways (49.2) alike.
2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 0 top-10s, 27.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 33rd
Adjusted pts+ index: 41
Avg. driver rating: 61.5
The other real shocker on the grading sheet, Keselowski’s 2025 season has been completely out of character for the 2012 Cup Series champion. We thought his performance upon leaving Penske for RFK in 2022 (80 pts+, 67.9 driver rating) was what a bad Keselowski season looked like. We had no idea that a year this miserable was even possible for a driver of his historic caliber — but Keselowski has only three finishes better than 26th all year, an adjusted pts+ index 59% (!) worse than Cup average, and a stunning 42% of his races have been DNFs (including crashes in each of the past three weekends).
Maybe the All-Star Race will be a natural break in the schedule to try to salvage something going forward, because it’s hard to imagine a worse start to the season than what Keselowski has produced so far.
No. 51 Cody Ware, Rick Ware Racing: F
2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 0 top-10s, 30.8 avg. finish
Standings rank: 36th
Adjusted pts+ index: 22
Avg. driver rating: 32.4
Ware’s best finish of the year is 24th, he has been 30th or worse nine times in 12 races, and he hasn’t cracked a 50 driver rating all season. Enough said.
Skim through the Heisman Trophy voting, and seven of the top 10 players will be on the field in this year’s College Football Playoff. Our apologies to Jeremiyah Love, whom we’d love to see there, too, but that’s an issue for Notre Dame and the ACC to work out.
But that list only scratches the surface of the depth of talent that will be showcased in this year’s playoff. From Ohio State‘s wealth of riches to James Madison’s band of upstarts, the 12 teams that made this year’s playoff are loaded with future NFL draft picks, college stars and under-the-radar gems just waiting to become household names on the sport’s biggest stage.
Before the games kicked off, ESPN’s panel of experts (Bill Connelly, David Hale, Max Olson and Adam Rittenberg) attempted to whittle down those 12 rosters to provide the definitive ranking of the 50 best players in this year’s playoff. It was no easy task. We’ve left off a bevy of names that we’ll no doubt come to regret — Georgia’s KJ Bolden, Oregon‘s Bear Alexander and Alabama‘s Germie Bernard and Kadyn Proctor — but that’s only another reminder of just how much star power will be on display in the coming weeks.
The criteria for our list is much like the process used by the College Football Playoff committee, insofar as we mostly made it up as we went. But the bigger point here was to identify not only the players who put up the best numbers during the regular season or the biggest names on the teams most likely to make a deep run, but to find the best players, the ones who’ll have a chance to have postseason star turns the way Will Howard, Cam Skattebo and Jack Sawyer did in 2024.
So, who will be this year’s most impactful playoff performers? The list starts here. — David Hale
OG, Tulane, redshirt junior
2025 notable stats: 849 snaps, 2 pressures, 0 sacks allowed
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The 6-foot-2, 293-pound big man has developed into a three-year starter at left guard for the Green Wave and has earned first-team All-American Conference honors in back-to-back seasons. Veteran leaders such as Hurst are a big reason why this squad was able to reload for 2025 after losing top players to the portal and pull off an 11-win season and a run to the CFP. — Max Olson
WR, Oklahoma, redshirt junior
2025 notable stats: 65 rec, 948 rec yards, 7 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The Arkansas transfer who emerged as a No. 1 receiver and All-SEC performer has been a massive development for helping Oklahoma overcome its recent offensive struggles. Sategna’s explosive touchdowns in close wins over Missouri and LSU played a big part in helping secure the Sooners’ CFP bid, and his 1,273 all-purpose yards were second most among all SEC wideouts. — Olson
QB, James Madison, redshirt junior
2025 notable stats: 2,533 yards, 21 TD, 61.2 QBR
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The Sun Belt Player of the Year has enjoyed a terrific two-year run as the Dukes’ starter with 6,117 total yards, 68 touchdowns, just 12 interceptions and a 20-5 record. He led his squad on an undefeated run through Sun Belt play with eight wins by double-digit margins and surpassed 300 total yards in five games, including a 448-yard performance against Old Dominion. — Olson
LB, Indiana, senior
2025 notable stats: 35 solo tackles, 7 TFL, 2 INT
2025 preseason ranking: 77
Fisher, a three-year starter, was a first-team All-American in his debut season with the Hoosiers after transferring from James Madison and had another highly productive year as a key leader for the No. 2 scoring defense in FBS. The 6-foot-1, 231-pound senior had a season-high 13 stops in the Hoosiers’ pivotal road win at Oregon and opened their victory over UCLA with a pick-six. — Olson
QB, Miami, redshirt senior
2025 notable stats: 3,072 yards, 25 TDs, 80.5 QBR
2025 preseason ranking: 29
Beck bypassed the NFL draft for a sixth year in college and one more chance to make a deep CFP run with the Hurricanes. He returned from an elbow injury and in form this season with the second-best completion percentage in FBS and the top QBR in the ACC. Beck led four wins over AP top-25 opponents and has boosted his career record as a starter to 34-5. — Olson
QB, Texas A&M, redshirt sophomore
2025 notable stats: 2,932 yards, 25 TDs, 77.8 QBR
2025 preseason ranking: NR
After taking over as Texas A&M’s starter during the 2024 season, Reed took a big step forward in his third year with nearly 3,400 total yards and a top-five QBR in the SEC (77.8). He had what it took to lead the Aggies to a last-minute road victory at Notre Dame and a 27-point comeback against South Carolina on their way to an 11-0 start. When he gets hot, few dual-threat quarterbacks are more fun to watch. — Olson
OT, Ohio State, redshirt junior
2025 notable stats: 759 snaps, 0 sacks allowed
2025 preseason ranking: NR
After earning six starts at left guard last season for the national champions, Siereveld moved to left tackle and proved he could be among the Big Ten’s best, earning second-team all-conference honors from the league’s coaches. Siereveld and his fellow starters up front kept quarterback Julian Sayin protected throughout his run to becoming a Heisman finalist, with only 11 sacks allowed through 13 games. — Olson
DL, Oklahoma, senior
2025 notable stats: 21 pressures, 6.5 sacks, 9.5 TFL
2025 preseason ranking: NR
Thomas has played in only nine games, yet still earned first-team All-SEC honors from the conference’s coaches. He has been that impressive as a pass rusher and logged all 6.5 of his sacks in SEC play for a Sooners defense that’s leading the country in TFLs and sacks. Thomas sat out most of November because of a quad injury and is working to try to get back on the field for the CFP. — Olson
LB, Alabama, redshirt senior
2025 notable stats: 75 tackles, 37 solo, 3 TFL
2025 preseason ranking: 27
Lawson put in the work to come back from a torn ACL sustained late in the 2024 season and again played at an All-SEC level for the Crimson Tide as a senior. The two-time team captain delivered two of the biggest plays of the season for Alabama’s defense with his fourth-quarter strip against South Carolina and his fumble recovery against Auburn to clinch close victories. — Olson
QB, Alabama, redshirt junior
2025 notable stats: 3,268 yards, 26 TDs, 76.7 QBR
2025 preseason ranking: NR
Simpson did what QBs rarely do these days in waiting until Year 4 to become a starting QB. He proved he can perform under pressure in leading a run of four consecutive victories over ranked SEC foes to kick off conference play, and he went on to earn second-team All-SEC honors from the conference’s coaches. — Olson
DL, James Madison, redshirt freshman
2025 notable stats: 16 solo tackles, 7 sacks, 1 FF
2025 preseason ranking: NR
West put together a remarkable redshirt freshman season at JMU after logging only seven snaps a season ago. The 6-foot-4, 270-pound defensive end earned Sun Belt Freshman of the Year honors this season and currently ranks second in the conference in TFLs and third in sacks. He brought his best in the Sun Belt title game with nine pressures and three sacks in a 31-14 victory over Troy. — Olson
DT, Oregon, junior
2025 notable stats: 4 TFL, 29 total tackles, 6 PBU
2025 preseason ranking: NR
He fortified Oregon’s defensive line in his first season as a starter, earning third-team All-Big Ten honors and contributing 29 tackles, four for loss, with five quarterback hurries and six pass breakups. Washington helped the Ducks rise to No. 9 nationally in points allowed. Oregon ranked 20th nationally against the run. — Adam Rittenberg
DT, Ole Miss, sophomore
2025 notable stats: 55 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 8 TFL
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The 310-pound sophomore from Houston, Mississippi, was one of the stars of Ole Miss’ 2024 recruiting class, and he has enjoyed a breakout campaign as a first-time starter. He has made 45 of his 55 tackles against the run — five of his 11 run stops (tackles at or behind the line) came in tight midseason wins over LSU and Washington State — but he has also had 4.5 sacks. — Bill Connelly
OLB, Texas Tech, senior
2025 notable stats: 47 tackles, 9 sacks, 46 pressures
2025 preseason ranking: NR
Playing for his fourth school in five years, Height has been the perfect foil for any offense that tries to focus too much attention on David Bailey. The 24-year-old pass-rush specialist has nine sacks and an elite 18.4% pressure rate, and he has been remarkably consistent all season: He has recorded at least three pressures in 12 of 13 games, with at least a half-sack in eight. — Connelly
RB, James Madison, junior
2025 notable stats: 190 carries, 1,263 yards, 10 total TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The 5-foot-7, 190-pounder has evolved into the most important player on the JMU offense. He has produced at least 85 yards from scrimmage in 12 of 13 games and produced 223 in the Sun Belt championship game win over Troy. He only grows more effective over time, too: He averages a strong 6.8 yards per touch in the first three quarters and an incredible 9.7 in the fourth. — Connelly
OLB, Oregon, junior
2025 notable stats: 61 tackles, 13 TFL, 2 FF
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The former blue-chipper was a contributor from almost day one at Oregon and has blossomed into almost the perfect outside linebacker. He set career highs in TFLs (13), run stops (14), sacks (seven) and forced fumbles (two), and when he missed a tackle against Washington in the fourth quarter of Oregon’s 12th game, it was his first official miss all season. — Connelly
CB, Indiana, junior
2025 notable stats: 39 tackles, 31 solo, 8 PD
2025 preseason ranking: 82
A freshman All-American at James Madison, Ponds has been a huge part of the Indiana rebuild from Curt Cignetti’s first day in charge. He can line up wide or in the slot, and he’s one of the nation’s surest tacklers at the cornerback position. Don’t even bother targeting him downfield: On passes of 10 or more air yards, he has given up only a 28% completion rate. — Connelly
WR, Georgia, junior
2025 notable stats: 73 rec, 744 yards, 5 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
As an extension of the run game, Branch catches most of his passes near the line of scrimmage but averages 8.1 yards after catch. After a reasonably slow start, Branch averaged 6.6 catches and 64.7 yards over his past seven games. He also might be the scariest return man in the CFP. — Connelly
WR, Indiana, junior
2025 notable stats: 58 rec, 804 yards, 11 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
Cooper combined with Elijah Sarratt to provide the perfect 1-2 punch for Fernando Mendoza. He enjoyed two perfect games this season (he caught a combined 18 of 18 passes for 322 yards against Indiana State and Michigan State), and with Sarratt hurt, he made the catch of the year against Penn State with a toe-tapping touchdown with 41 seconds left. — Connelly
DE, Miami, senior
2025 notable stats: 52 tackles, 12 TFL, 7 sacks
2025 preseason ranking: NR
A sixth-year senior and West Virginia transfer, Mesidor has been a fantastic battery mate for Rueben Bain Jr., either tying or setting career highs this season in TFLs (12), run stops (10), sacks (seven), pressures (42) and pressure rate (13.9%). Following Miami’s back-to-back losses, he raised his game down the stretch, helping to assure the Hurricanes’ rebounded in the CFP rankings. — Connelly
DE, Oklahoma, sophomore
2025 notable stats: 43 tackles, 12 TFL, 6 sacks
2025 preseason ranking: NR
Oklahoma lost R Mason Thomas to injury in November, and Wein, who entered the season with only one career tackle, made sure it didn’t matter in the slightest. He recorded at least one TFL in 10 of 12 games, and he made 2.5 sacks with seven pressures in late wins over Alabama and Missouri. Thomas’ return to the lineup could take the focus off of him and also make him more effective. — Connelly
S, Oregon, junior
2025 notable stats: 31 solo tackles, 2 INT, 4 PD
2025 preseason ranking: NR
After serving his time at Purdue, Thieneman moved to Eugene and quickly thrived as a patrolman in the back. Oregon ranks fifth nationally in yards allowed per dropback (4.7) and ninth in interception rate (4.0%), and Thieneman’s fingerprints are all over that. His overtime interception against Penn State both clinched a CFP berth for the Ducks (in retrospect) and sent the Nittany Lions spiraling. — Connelly
S, Indiana, senior
2025 notable stats: 67 tackles, 6 INT, 2.5 TFL
2025 preseason ranking: NR
A former junior college player who sued for an extra year of eligibility, Moore transferred back to Indiana after a year at Ole Miss, and he has become a wonderfully effective ball hawk for a defense that is tied for sixth nationally with 25 takeaways. An active defensive front creates pressure and then Moore swoops in to pounce on a quarterback’s mistakes. — Connelly
QB, Ole Miss, senior
2025 notable stats: 3,016 yards, 19 total TDs, 86.0 QBR
2025 preseason ranking: NR
A year ago, Chambliss was leading Ferris State to the Division II title. Now he’s leading Ole Miss into its first CFP. Austin Simmons began the season as the Rebels’ starter but sustained an early injury. Chambliss made the most of his 10 starts, finishing fifth in Total QBR and eighth in the Heisman voting. He’s a passer first, but he will torch you with his legs if you let him. — Connelly
WR, Ohio State, senior
2025 notable stats: 48 rec, 838 yards, 9 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: 67
The best No. 3 receiver in the country last season, Tate has become maybe the best No. 2 in 2025. He has topped 100 yards four times this season — including a 183-yard effort against Minnesota — and he has caught at least one touchdown pass in eight of the 10 games he has played. Tate sat out three games in November but returned to catch the clinching 50-yard TD against Michigan. — Connelly
DT, Texas Tech, senior
2025 notable stats: 11 solo tackles, 8.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks
2025 preseason ranking: NR
Part of Texas Tech’s lucrative defensive transfer class, Hunter arrived from UCF and immediately had an impact on the Red Raiders’ front. Hunter earned third-team AP All-America honors and was a first-team All-Big 12 selection after fortifying the interior line with 34 tackles. The 6-foot-4, 330-pound Hunter regularly commanded double-teams and helped Texas Tech become the nation’s best against the run. — Rittenberg
QB, Georgia, redshirt junior
2025 notable stats: 2,691 yards, 31 total TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
Stockton waited his turn to become Georgia’s starter as a fourth-year junior and was certainly up for the challenge, leading the Bulldogs to another SEC title with a nine-game win streak since an early loss to Alabama. He currently ranks No. 6 nationally in QBR (85.8) and offered plenty of proof in tough tests against Ole Miss, Texas and Tennessee that he’s capable of taking his team on another title run. — Olson
TE, Oregon, junior
2025 notable stats: 40 rec, 490 yards, 8 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
In a season in which injuries hit Oregon’s wide receiver room especially hard, Sadiq emerged as a capable target. He earned second-team AP All-America honors and was named the Big Ten’s Tight End of the Year after recording eight touchdown catches — most among FBS tight ends — and a team-high 40 receptions. Despite sitting out some time because of injury, Sadiq recorded 490 receiving yards and became the first Oregon tight end to be a finalist for the Mackey Award. — Rittenberg
WR, Indiana, senior
2025 notable stats: 51 rec, 687 yards, 12 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: 78
One of coach Curt Cignetti’s plug-and-play transfers from James Madison, Sarratt followed a third-team All-Big Ten season in 2024 with a second-team selection this fall, despite sitting out some time because of a hamstring injury. Sarratt recorded touchdown catches in all but two games he played and had three multitouchdown performances and four with seven or more receptions. Sarratt has 186 receptions for 2,835 yards and 28 touchdowns during the past three seasons. — Rittenberg
LB, Ohio State, senior
2025 notable stats: 45 solo tackles, 1 FF, 1 INT
2024 preseason ranking: 62
The 6-foot-5, 243-pound playmaker has performed at an All-America level for the Buckeyes and should be a first-round NFL draft pick next spring after shining under new defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. He’s the leading tackler on the No. 1 defense in the country, had a season-high 12 stops in the Big Ten title game and ranks fourth among all starting linebackers in Pro Football Focus grading this season. — Olson
0:33
Alabama comes away with a big-time INT in the 3rd quarter
Bray Hubbard hauls in the tipped ball for a big-time Crimson Tide interception.
S, Alabama, junior
2025 notable stats: 4 INT, 6 PBU, 3 FF
2025 preseason ranking: NR
After emerging as a starter in 2024 and leading the team with three interceptions, Hubbard solidified himself as one of the nation’s best defensive backs this season. The junior safety from Mississippi earned first-team All-America honors and again led Alabama with four interceptions, while contributing 66 tackles and a team-high six pass breakups. Hubbard had an interception and a forced fumble in Alabama’s narrow win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl. — Rittenberg
OT, Miami, junior
2025 notable stat: Nation’s third-highest pass-blocking grade (88.8)
2025 preseason ranking: 24
A mainstay at right tackle for the past three seasons, Mauigoa earned first-team AP All-America honors this fall after anchoring one of the nation’s top offensive lines. Miami ranks fifth nationally in fewest tackles for loss allowed (3.5 per game) and tied for eighth in fewest sacks allowed (.92 per game), while averaging 37.8 points during the final four regular-season games. He won the ACC’s Jacobs Blocking Trophy and earned the nation’s third-highest pass-blocking grade (88.8) from Pro Football Focus. — Rittenberg
QB, Oregon, sophomore
2025 notable stats: 2,733 yards, 24 TDs, 77.8 QBR
2025 preseason ranking: NR
After starting five games as a true freshman at UCLA in 2023, Moore took the rare step of transferring to a place where he knew playing time would be limited. He used the gap year in 2024 to refocus and blossomed this fall for the Ducks, completing 72.5% of his pass attempts with 24 touchdowns and six interceptions. Moore helped rally Oregon to road wins against Penn State and Iowa and had 849 passing yards in his final three regular-season games that has him projected as possibly the top pick in the 2026 NFL draft. — Rittenberg
OT, Indiana, junior
2025 notable stat: No. 2 graded offensive lineman in the Power 4
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The Hoosiers prioritized upgrading their offensive line after 2024 and made several key additions through the portal. Their best blocker though turned out to be a holdover in Smith, who started the previous two seasons for the Hoosiers at left tackle. He protected the blind side of Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza and became the first Indiana player named Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year. Smith also is the first IU tackle to earn first-team All-Big Ten honors since Charley Peal in 1977. — Rittenberg
LB, Ohio State, junior
2025 notable stats: 6.5 sacks, 10 TFL, 62 total tackles
2025 preseason ranking: NR
A new set of stars emerged to lead the nation’s No. 1 defense this fall, and Reese was undeniably front and center. He has thrived under new coordinator Matt Patricia, recording 6.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss from the edge position and finished second on the squad with 62 total tackles. One of three Buckeyes defenders named a first-team AP All-American, Reese was named Big Ten’s Linebacker of the Year and recorded a sack in six of Ohio State’s first eight games of the season. — Rittenberg
WR, Miami, freshman
2025 notable stats: 84 rec, 970 yards, 7 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The Miami native dazzled in his home area during his freshman year at the U, recording twice as many receptions than any other Hurricanes player this season, while leading the ACC in touchdowns and ranking fourth in the league in receiving yards, which marked a Miami freshman record. Toney had four 100-yard receiving performances, including in each of his final two regular-season games. A second-team AP All-America selection, Toney earned ACC Rookie of the Year honors after leading FBS freshmen in receptions. — Rittenberg
G, Oregon, senior
2025 notable stat: 87.3 pass-blocking grade
2025 preseason ranking: NR
A key member of an Oregon offensive front reshaped through the transfer portal, Pregnon earned first-team AP All-America honors during his first season with the Ducks. After starting two seasons for USC, Pregnon helped protect quarterback Dante Moore, giving up no sacks and only three pressures on 335 pass-blocking opportunities. Oregon enters the CFP ranked sixth in fewest tackles for loss allowed. — Rittenberg
DL, Ohio State, junior
2025 notable stats: 28 solo tackles, 3 sacks, 2 FF
2025 preseason ranking: NR
Running against Ohio State is no easy task, thanks in large part to the work of McDonald around the line of scrimmage. McDonald racked up 16 run stuffs this season — stops on runs at or behind the line — while making 60 total tackles on plays that gained an average of just 1.1 yards. McDonald missed only two tackles all season, making him one of the most reliable defenders on the D-line in the country. — Hale
RB, Ole Miss, sophomore
2025 notable stats: 258 carries, 20 TDs, 1,279 yards
2025 preseason ranking: NR
After playing sparingly for Missouri in 2024, Lacy became one of the top impact transfers in the country under coach Lane Kiffin and the Rebels. He set an Ole Miss single-season record with 20 rushing touchdowns and became the school’s first finalist for the Doak Walker Award. Lacy leads the nation in rushing touchdowns and is fourth nationally in points per game. According to Pro Football Focus, he is second nationally in missed tackles forced (84) and fourth in yards after contact (809). Lacy had at least one rushing touchdown in all but one game. — Rittenberg
DL, Ohio State, senior
2025 notable stats: 36 solo tackles, 11 sacks, 1 FF
2025 preseason ranking: NR
Curry was a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks this season, racking up 11 sacks, 16.5 tackles for loss, six QB hurries and 40 pressures. Curry’s versatility allowed him to create havoc on the edge and inside throughout the season, and his ability to move in space and play physical helped him rack up 62 total tackles, most in the Big Ten by a defensive lineman. — Hale
WR, Texas A&M, junior
2025 notable stats: 886 yards, 9 TDs, 12 total TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
No incoming transfer this season has affected two phases of the game as much as Concepcion, who won the Paul Hornung Award as the nation’s most versatile player. The NC State transfer earned first-team All-SEC honors at wide receiver, return specialist and all-purpose player, after leading the league with nine receiving touchdowns and 480 all-purpose yards. He became the first A&M player in the modern era to score on a reception, a rush and a punt return in the same year. Concepcion had 57 receptions for 886 yards. — Hale
DL, Miami, junior
2025 notable stats: 19 solo tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT
2025 preseason ranking: 33
The numbers don’t exactly scream superstar. Bain had 4.5 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss and 37 total tackles. But ask any QB or offensive coordinator who faced Miami this season who the best player on the field was, and the answer probably would be unanimous. Bain’s motor is unrivaled, and the attention he commands at the line of scrimmage opens up lanes for others on Miami’s front. For the season, Bain racked up 48 pressures — tops in the ACC — and 18 stops at or behind the line of scrimmage. — Hale
LB, Georgia, junior
2025 notable stats: 45 solo tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 FF
2025 preseason ranking: 38
Perhaps the most fierce player on the Dawgs’ defense, Allen is a machine in the middle for Georgia, racking up 85 total tackles, including eight for a loss. He added four PBUs, two QB hurries, two forced fumbles and contested seven of 16 targets while in coverage. — Hale
CB, Ohio State, junior
2025 notable stats: 18 solo tackles, 1 INT
2025 preseason ranking: 3
Downs picked off two passes this season, which is far more impressive than it sounds, because despite playing 322 snaps in coverage, opposing QBs targeted him only 20 times. Downs gave up only nine catches all season as the primary defender, accounting for only 72 yards and no touchdowns. The longest completion he gave up was 17 yards. A 14-yard completion in the second quarter of the Big Ten title game was the first one he’d given up in nearly two months. There is not a more lockdown corner in the country than Downs. — Hale
DL, Texas A&M, senior
2025 notable stats: 19 solo tackles, 11.5 sacks, 1 FF
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The problem, according to Miami coach Mario Cristobal, with trying to control Texas A&M’s pass rush is that the Aggies so rarely need to bring extra help. The front four dominate on their own. There’s plenty of praise to go around, of course, but the leader of that group is Howell, who led the SEC with 11.5 sacks and finished fourth with 14 tackles for loss. Howell added five QB hurries, six PBUs and a forced fumble for good measure. If the Aggies are going to make a deep run, it probably will be because of the chaos created up front by Howell & Co. — Hale
QB, Ohio State, sophomore
2025 notable stats: 3,323 passing yards, 31 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
When Will Howard left after winning a national championship last season, Ohio State could’ve chased another veteran in the portal. Instead, the Buckeyes handed the keys to the best roster in college football to a player with no real previous experience. Sayin didn’t flinch. From beating Texas in Week 1 to blossoming into a Heisman finalist by year’s end, Sayin never appeared overwhelmed by the moment, racking up an eye-popping stat line that included 31 touchdown passes, only six interceptions and a nearly 79% completion percentage. Sayin’s 182.2 passer rating was the best in the country, and if he makes a similar leap in the playoff as Howard did last year — there might be no stopping Ohio State from a repeat. — Hale
OLB, Texas Tech, senior
2025 notable stats: 27 solo tackles, 13.5 sacks, 3 FF
2025 preseason ranking: 57
One of the best pash rushers in the country, Bailey led all Power 4 players in sacks with 13.5. He finished the regular season with 17.5 tackles for loss, 13 QB hurries, 65 pressures, a ridiculous 19.9% pressure rate and three forced fumbles. The Red Raiders’ defensive front was its best weapon, and no one on that D-line created more havoc in 2025 than Bailey. — Hale
LB, Texas Tech, senior
2025 notable stats: 117 tackles, 61 solo, 7 FF
2025 preseason ranking: 92
Arguably the best defensive player in the country in 2025, Rodriguez dominated in all areas for Texas Tech this season. He racked up 117 tackles, second most in the Big 12. He picked off four passes, had 11 tackles for loss, broke up six passes and forced seven fumbles. And as if it wasn’t enough to dominate on defense, Rodriguez even got into the action on offense, rushing twice and scoring both times. — Hale
WR, Ohio State, sophomore
2025 notable stats: 1,086 rec yards, 11 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: 1
If we’re ranking based on talent alone, there’s a good argument that no player comes close to matching Smith’s ability. Smith caught 80 balls for 1,086 yards and 11 touchdowns as a sophomore, but that doesn’t really tell the story. It’s how he has done it. Smith commands double-teams constantly, draws the attention of everyone’s best corner, and has every defensive coordinator he faces scheming to slow him down. And none of it has mattered. Smith continues to produce big play after big play, opening up options for Ohio State’s offense all over the field. — Hale
QB, Indiana, junior
2025 notable stats: 2,980 passing yards, 39 total TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR
The Heisman Trophy winner has to top the list. Mendoza was a force for Indiana, as the Hoosiers took the next step from playoff Cinderella in 2024 to the No. 1 team in the country entering the 2025 postseason. Mendoza’s final numbers tell the story: more than 3,200 total yards, 39 touchdowns and only six interceptions for the last undefeated team in the country. — Hale
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David Schoenfield
We’ve started to see some top free agents come off the board as the MLB offseason has gotten rolling: Kyle Schwarber back to the Philadelphia Phillies, Pete Alonso to the Baltimore Orioles and Dylan Cease to the Toronto Blue Jays. The closer market also moved quickly: Devin Williams to the New York Mets, Edwin Diaz then ditching the Mets for the Los Angeles Dodgers, Robert Suarez to the Atlanta Braves and Ryan Helsley to Baltimore.
That still leaves seven of the top 10 free agents from Kiley McDaniel’s top-50 ranking unsigned. Let’s look at that group and see where things stand. The team at the center of everything right now is the Mets: They have needs to fill and money to spend and will be a key player in how the rest of this offseason plays out.
We’ll list Kiley’s contract projections for each player — including updated projections for the four remaining big free agent hitters, based on how the deals for Schwarber and Alonso have reset that market. Then, of course, we’ll make some predictions that will certainly be correct.
2025 free agent ranking: 1
Initial projection: 11 years, $418 million
New projection: 11 years, $418 million (with potential deferrals)
Team that might be out: Phillies. The Phillies crossed off their top agenda item, re-signing Schwarber, and then filled a hole in the outfield with a one-year deal for Adolis Garcia. At the Garcia press conference, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the Phillies’ outfield is “pretty well set,” with Brandon Marsh in left field (at least against right-handed pitching) and rookie Justin Crawford getting the chance to win the job in center field.
What about the Mets? The Mets quickly replaced Alonso with Jorge Polanco, but they have holes in the outfield, where Jeff McNeil, Tyrone Taylor and prospect Carson Benge are the current candidates to suit up alongside Juan Soto. The payroll is some $42 million below where it was in 2025, via Roster Resource at FanGraphs, but the Mets still need a front-line starting pitcher and bullpen depth.
Does the reluctance to give Diaz and Alonso long-term contracts preclude signing the younger Tucker? Not necessarily, but it’s clear president of baseball operations David Stearns is operating with a disciplined mission this offseason, focusing on upgrading the team’s defense and not getting trapped into longer deals that can quickly go awry. Plus, with Soto entering the second year of a 15-year contract, does it make sense to give another long-term deal to an outfielder? Probably not.
What about the Dodgers? The Dodgers could shift Teoscar Hernandez to left field and sign Tucker to play right field, especially with the payroll about $43 million below where it was in 2025. But do the Dodgers believe that much in Tucker to give him a megadeal? At some point, they do need to weave some younger position players into the lineup — and their top prospects are all outfielders: Josue De Paula, Eduardo Quintero, Mike Sirota and Zyhir Hope. Tucker on a shorter deal with a higher AAV might work if a longer one isn’t out there for him.
Prediction: Blue Jays. The Jays are doubling down on their World Series appearance so far, signing starters Cease and Cody Ponce, who’s coming off Korean League MVP honors, as well as reliever Tyler Rogers. With George Springer in the final year of his deal, Tucker can be viewed as Springer’s replacement in the outfield (with Anthony Santander as the DH). The Jays also have a lot of other money coming off the books after 2026 (Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Myles Straw and Yimi Garcia). Including Springer, that’s $78 million, so they can absorb the long-term implications of a Tucker deal.
2025 free agent ranking: 2
Initial projection: 6 years, $168 million
Team that might be out: Blue Jays. With Bieber exercising his player option and then the Jays signing Cease and Ponce, the rotation looks settled for 2026.
What about the Mets? Last offseason, Stearns tried the second-tier route to fix the rotation, signing Sean Manaea to a three-year, $75 million deal, Clay Holmes for three years and $38 million, and Frankie Montas for two years and $34 million. It didn’t exactly work. Holmes was fine, but Manaea had a 5.64 ERA in 12 starts while Montas made just seven starts and the Mets released him after the season. Given that Mets starters ranked 27th in the majors, let’s see if Stearns swims in deeper waters this time and signs the top starter out there, one who has averaged 192 innings the past four seasons. But does Stearns have the appetite to sign a pitcher for longer than three years? Reports seem to suggest the answer to that question is no — and that a trade is more likely.
What about the Orioles? Signing Alonso shouldn’t prevent the Orioles from going after one of the top remaining starting pitchers. Indeed, after signing Alonso and trading for Taylor Ward (a free agent after 2026) the urgency to win now has only increased. The payroll is $22 million below 2025’s $160 million. Is that enough room to sign Valdez? A more likely option might be a starter just outside the top 10 free agents, such as Ranger Suarez or Michael King.
Prediction: Chicago Cubs. The Cubs need a top-of-the-rotation starter, a guy they feel more confident handing the ball to in a playoff game than they did with Matthew Boyd or Shota Imanaga. They also have the payroll flexibility to do it, sitting about $22 million below last season’s total.
2025 free agent ranking: 3
Initial projection: 6 years, $165 million
New projection: 6 years, $180 million
Team that might be out: Cincinnati Reds. Not that the Reds were ever in on Bellinger, but they were in on Schwarber. Even though Bellinger fits a need in the outfield, the Reds’ interest in Schwarber was apparently only due to ownership’s belief the Ohio native would help sell tickets.
What about the New York Yankees? It has been a quiet offseason so far for the Yankees, but general manager Brian Cashman reiterated at the winter meetings that the Yankees still want Bellinger back after a stellar 5.1-WAR season in the Bronx. While they don’t necessarily want to give up on Jasson Dominguez, there is still plenty of room for Bellinger, especially since he can play center — which allows New York to hedge against Trent Grisham regressing from his surprising 2025 numbers. Bellinger could also fill in at first base or play right field when Aaron Judge needs a DH day.
Prediction: Mets. Stearns is clearly emphasizing defense — bringing in Marcus Semien to play second base and ditching Alonso. Bellinger fits in that regard, especially in left field, where he would be a plus defender, and he can handle center as well. The Dodgers could be in the mix here as well, but that outfield hole for the Mets is glaring. If they aren’t going to sign Tucker and if they’re not willing to give a long-term deal to a pitcher, Bellinger is the best fit for them at the top of the market.
Would the Mets give Bellinger a bigger contract than the one Alonso received from the Orioles? Bellinger is only a year younger, but over the past three seasons he has averaged 4.0 WAR while Alonso averaged 3.1
2025 free agent ranking: 4
Initial projection: 5 years, $160 million
New projection: 5 or 6 years, $170 million
Team that might be out: Detroit Tigers. Bregman and the Tigers felt like the perfect match last offseason when Bregman was a free agent, but Buster Olney recently reported on an episode of the Baseball Tonight podcast that negotiations turned a “little bit nasty” last year, making it less likely for a match this time around.
What about the Mets? This was a popular prediction at the outset of free agency, but the Mets now seem committed to Brett Baty at third base. Bregman’s age — he’s entering his age-32 season — also makes him a risky bet, and Stearns is clearly anti-risk.
What about the Cubs? The Cubs went hard after Bregman last season and there have been reports of interest once again, even though Matt Shaw played much better in the second half of his rookie season (.258/.317/.522).
Prediction: Boston Red Sox. In the end, a return to Boston still makes the most sense. The Red Sox went after Schwarber and Alonso, and they need Bregman’s right-handed bat to help balance out the lefty-heavy lineup.
2025 free agent ranking: 5
Initial projection: 6 years, $135 million
Team that might be out: Dodgers. After initially declaring he wants to take the Dodgers down, Imai has doubled down on his desire to beat the Dodgers — not join them. “With the number of pitchers they already have, they don’t need me,” he told a Japanese news outlet. Meanwhile, Tyler Glasnow told MLB Network Radio on Sunday that he spoke with Andrew Friedman, and the Dodgers’ exec told him, “You’re not going anywhere.” Seems like the Dodgers will stick with their rotation.
What about the Mets? If the Dodgers are out, Imai landing with a big-market East Coast team certainly feels like a strong possibility. But, there’s still the issue of whether Stearns will give a pitcher a long-term deal — and Imai is expected to get five or six years.
What about the Yankees? Imai has until Jan. 2 to sign, so this could happen any day. The rotation isn’t really a need for the Yankees — they finished fourth in rotation ERA in 2025 without Gerrit Cole, who should be back at some point in the first half of the 2026 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2025. But they are undoubtedly looking at all of the Dodgers’ Japanese starters with envy, plus there are rumors of the Yankees going after a starting pitcher (such as a return engagement with King).
Prediction: San Francisco Giants. The Giants are going to be in the mix for several of these top guys — Tucker, Bellinger and the pitchers. Heck, if Imai wants to beat the Dodgers, how about joining a team where he can face them four or five times a season? The Giants’ payroll is only $8 million under 2025’s total, but that 2025 figure was about $30 million below 2024. They have room to pay, they need a starting pitcher and Robbie Ray is a free agent after 2026.
2025 free agent ranking: 7
Initial projection: 5 years, $130 million
New projection: 5 years, $150 million
Team that might be out: Braves. With the one-year deal given to Ha-Seong Kim for $20 million to return to Atlanta, where he played 24 games at the end of the season, the Braves would seemingly be out on Bichette. They have Kim at shortstop, Ozzie Albies at second and Mauricio Dubon in a utility role.
What about the Mets? Bichette’s age — he’s entering his age-28 season — makes him the kind of free agent that might be more attractive to Stearns, although the Mets have their double-play combo set with Francisco Lindor and Semien. But what about Bichette moving to third? His range at shortstop is subpar anyway, and that was before the knee injury in September. Executives love his high-contact rate that should translate well to October baseball — and he would make for a terrific No. 3 hitter behind Lindor and Soto. Baty would then become trade bait for pitching or outfield help. Don’t sleep on this one.
What about the Blue Jays? A return certainly fits, with Andres Gimenez taking over at shortstop and Bichette sliding to second base on a permanent basis. But do the Jays have an appetite to sign both Tucker and Bichette? They do also have other infield options, with Addison Barger playing third base after splitting time between third and right field in 2025 and Ernie Clement playing second on a full-time basis.
Prediction: Yankees. We’re trying to read the tea leaves here and those Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade rumors keep popping up. Perhaps the Yankees are trying to clear space for a new infielder? Bichette could either provide another option at shortstop to Anthony Volpe, who struggled at the plate in 2025 and saw his defense regress as well, or play second, with Jose Caballero still around to back up both positions.
2025 free agent ranking: 10
Initial projection: 5 years, $80 million
Team that might be out: Mets. Murakami and the Mets were linked early on, but given Stearns’ defensive emphasis and the signing of Polanco to play first base — where many scouts believe Murakami is best suited to play — there doesn’t seem to be a clear fit, unless the Mets turn him into a full-time DH (and Mark Vientos is still around for that role or could share it with Polanco).
What about the Red Sox? The Red Sox have obviously been on the prowl for a slugger and Murakami’s power potential is huge — although it will come with a lot of swing-and-miss. If the Red Sox are tired of Triston Casas‘ continued injury issues, Murakami is a fit at first base. His age — he turns 26 in February — also makes him attractive, despite the strikeout risk.
What about the Seattle Mariners? At the winter meetings, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said the Mariners were still interested in adding one more hitter. That obviously won’t be re-signing Polanco. They’ve been mentioned in trade rumors for Brendan Donovan and Ketel Marte. But what about keeping their prospects and just signing Murakami to play third base and DH? The Mariners might not want to add another strikeout-prone hitter, but if the bidding for Murakami does fall below nine figures, maybe they get in the mix.
Prediction: Chicago White Sox. Murakami’s deadline to sign is Dec. 22, so we’re running out of time. His market still seems wide open. The Phillies could also be an interesting fit, or maybe the Los Angeles Angels want to do something. Indeed, if any of these top 10 free agents land in a surprising spot, Murakami might be the one. The White Sox have money to spend — their current estimated payroll is just $68 million and that includes $20 million for Luis Robert Jr., who might be traded. They have a desperate need for power and Murakami fits at either third or first, depending on where Miguel Vargas ends up. This would be a nice roll of the dice for a White Sox team that looks to be on the rise.
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Kristen Shilton
There’s a new sheriff in the State of Hockey. And a Swedish one, at that. His name? Jesper Wallstedt.
But you can call him The Wall of St. Paul. His teammates do. It’s a nickname befitting of a Minnesota Wild goaltender who’s rewriting the franchise’s rookie record books as one of the league’s breakout stars.
The Wild even made T-shirts to show their support. Wallstedt just wasn’t sure whether to join in on the fun or not.
“I have no idea where it came from,” Wallstedt said last month after several Minnesota players began wearing the shirts. “I got in here and I’m like, ‘Am I supposed to wear it, or is that kind of weird wearing your own shirt?’ So, I ended up not wearing it.”
Wallstedt’s play has been advertisement enough. He’s at the top of a goaltending wave bringing several new freshmen to light in the season’s first half, along with resurgent campaigns from some familiar faces.
It’s almost a mystery how these things work. Goaltending is a complicated job, after all. Goalies have to account for hundreds of different skaters on the attack, all of whom have studied that player in the crease in search of ways to beat him.
That’s pressure enough — and granted, goaltenders are a particular breed unto themselves and often boast of unique journeys to their jobs in the league.
“[Part of] what you’re seeing now is that it takes a good three to five years of development for goalies,” former NHL goaltender Martin Biron said of this current freshman class. “And now with the amount of goalies being used during the season you see that there is some good quality from those drafts from 2019 to 2021.”
It’s part of what makes the position so fascinating, particularly this season where we’ve seen everything from the upstarts shining (Devin Cooley has been a bright spot for Calgary) to veteran No. 1s having career years (stick taps to Logan Thompson). There have been just nine rookie goalies to appear in at least 41 games of a full season for their teams since 2019-20; there could be half that many alone this season.
We may never know why. But here is a non-comprehensive look at the unexpected who’s who of the goaltending world.
9-1-2 | 1.95 GAA | .937 SV%
Wallstedt’s signature celebration is to pretend to shoot an arrow. It could just as easily be a dagger — bursting the bubble of an opponent trying to score.
Not everyone approves of Wallstedt’s enthusiastic response to a win. But the 23-year-old is having a moment, and won’t be changing things up anytime soon.
Wallstedt turned heads from the get-go this season after having just five career NHL starts to his credit prior to 2025-26, amounting to a 2-3-0 mark with .877 SV% and 3.44 GAA. If anything, Wallstedt was tabbed as a capable backup partner for Filip Gustavsson; instead, Wallstedt has become his own one-man show.
There was always the potential for Wallstedt to be a burgeoning star in the league. He was a top youth goalie in Sweden, appearing on national teams and debuting with the SHL’s Lulea HF at just 17 years old. Minnesota hopped past Edmonton in the 2021 draft to select Wallstedt, making him the first Swedish goalie to be drafted in the first round. That alone was an accomplishment. But coming to North America wouldn’t be without difficulties.
Wallstedt’s transition from Sweden to the Wild’s American Hockey League affiliate in Iowa was fine at first. He produced a .908 SV% his first season there, and improved to .910 the one after that. He was an AHL All-Star selection. By the 2024-25 season, Minnesota had Marc-Andre Fleury and Gustavsson sharing the net.
There was no room for Wallstedt as third wheel and he went back to the AHL — where it wasn’t pretty. Wallstedt went 9-14-4 that season, with an .879 SV%. Iowa wasn’t a strong team overall but Wallstedt’s performance — including his two NHL appearances that were both losses and came with an .843 SV% — was concerning, and rightly raised questions about his NHL-readiness.
Minnesota waived Fleury off into retirement over the summer, and that left an opening for Wallstedt to step into a tandem with Gustavsson. Regardless of his past, Wallstedt was ready to soar. He went 8-0-2 through his first 10 games, while recording four shutouts to give him five in 15 career games played. That’s the second-fewest starts required to reach that mark since Frank Brimsek in 1938 (“Mr. Zero” required only nine games). His road shutout streak — going through Winnipeg, Edmonton and Vancouver — was halted at 116:09. That was the third-longest streak of its kind in franchise history, and Wallstedt was just the fifth rookie goalie since 1929-30 to do it.
The numbers show how Wallstedt persevered to become this season’s goalie sensation. And Minnesota is hoping he’s just getting started. The Wild are third in the Central Division and have appeared increasingly confident right along with their goaltender. If Wallstedt continues to shine, there’s no telling how far he can help carry the Wild this season.
0:11
Jesper Wallstedt makes big-time save vs. Jets
Jesper Wallstedt makes beautiful save
10-1-0 | 2.07 GAA | .910 SV%
In early October, Bussi was facing an uncertain future. Little did he know it would include etching his name in the NHL record books.
At the time, Bussi had been placed on waivers by the Florida Panthers after signing a one-way, two-year contract with the reigning Stanley Cup champions in July. If he cleared, Bussi could join the Panthers’ AHL affiliate. Instead, the Carolina Hurricanes swooped in to claim Bussi when Pyotr Kochetkov was hurt to start the season. That has become a defining moment for Bussi and Carolina. He has outperformed any expectation the Hurricanes could have had for him, including becoming the fastest goalie to earn 10 wins in NHL history.
That feat is impressive on its own. It’s even more impressive considering Bussi came to Carolina with zero NHL experience — but he is not technically a rookie. In order to qualify for freshman status with the league, players have to be under 26 years old on Sept. 15 of a season. Bussi turned 27 in June. Age is just a number, though, and we are not beholden to such parameters here, so Bussi gets grouped into the rookie class. But the first-year netminder hasn’t played like a newbie at all.
The Sound Beach, New York, native began as a backup to veteran Frederik Andersen, making his NHL debut on Oct. 14 in a 5-1 rout of San Jose. He was so good behind Andersen that Carolina kept him in the fold even after Kochetkov returned in early November. Kochetkov would have a flare-up of the same injury weeks later, and that’s when Bussi got rolling, passing Andersen as coach Rod Brind’Amour’s go-to in net while reeling off a 10-1-0 to start his pro career, with a .910 SV% and 2.07 GAA. He’s just the fifth NHL goalie to win nine of his first 10 appearances.
Carolina couldn’t have anticipated leaning on Bussi like it has. But Andersen — ironically one of the other five goalies that also recorded nine wins in his first 10 career games — has struggled this season (going 5-7-2 with an .875 SV%) and if not for Bussi, Carolina could have taken a tumble while Kochetkov recovers.
If he keeps that up, time will tell what the Hurricanes goalie rotation looks like when all are healthy — and how many wins Bussi can string together as this season’s Cinderella story.
0:21
Brandon Bussi robs Predators with save
Brandon Bussi robs Predators with save
2-3-3 | 2.72 GAA | .923 SV%
Hildeby can’t help but take over a room.
His 6-foot-7 hulking frame seems in direct contradiction to his quiet, unassuming personality. But the man affectionately known as “Hildebeast” didn’t earn the moniker by running his mouth. He has done it by using that big body to make the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ net look small — and hold some of the league’s best scorers at bay.
The Leafs have been in a goaltending bind throughout the season. Would-be No. 1 Anthony Stolarz was average out of the gate and then got hurt; he hasn’t suited up since Nov. 11 while nursing an upper-body injury. Joseph Woll took over from there after returning from a personal leave of absence, and Hildeby — a fourth-round draft choice by the Leafs in 2022 with just six NHL games to his credit — tagged in on clean-up duty and a few back-to-backs.
It was Toronto’s alarming defensive issues — they were second in shots against per game and fourth in goals against per game through the end of November — that stood out most, wasting quality starts from Hildeby, who was 1-2-1 with a .914 SV% supporting Woll.
When Woll also hit the sideline with a lower-body injury last week, Toronto had no choice but to put their full faith in Hildeby. That has paid off.
He made nine saves in relief of Woll to preserve a 5-1 victory for the Leafs over Carolina, and was their No. 1 from there: Hildeby backstopped Toronto to a frustrating 2-1 shootout loss to Montreal, blanked the Tampa Bay Lightning in a hard-fought 2-0 victory, stood on his head to get the Leafs a point in their 3-2 overtime loss to San Jose and was hung out to dry in Edmonton’s 6-3 rout of Toronto.
Hildeby deserved better than a 1-1-2 record in those starts, given his .934 SV% and 2.34 GAA. It’s a small sample size, but Hildeby ranks second in save percentage among goalies with at least 10 starts (.923).
More than that, he has been consistently good for a club that has only recently showed defensive improvements — although the Leafs have begun to backslide in that department again.
Toronto’s glaring issue now is an inability to stay healthy in net, or on the back end. After Hildeby, there’s just Artur Akhtyamov, who made his NHL debut in relief of Hildeby during last week’s tilt against the Oilers. There’s no telling yet when Stolarz will return, with coach Craig Berube saying on this week he’s not progressing as the team had hoped. Woll made his return on Tuesday, but he has a concerning injury history. Meanwhile, Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo are both still out from the blue-line group.
Hildeby needs a reliable partner, too. But even though Woll is ready, it’ll be tough for coach Craig Berube to take the reins from Hildeby entirely given how he has exceeded expectations.
0:32
Dennis Hildeby makes big-time save vs. Sharks
Dennis Hildeby robs Sharks with save
11-8-1 | 3.24 GAA | .902 SV%
Askarov might be playing in his first full NHL season, but you’d be forgiven for mistaking him for a veteran.
San Jose’s rookie netminder is carrying a heavy load for the surprising Sharks, and it has made up for enough defensive deficiencies in front of him to have San Jose in the playoff mix. Askarov put a slow start behind him to produce a 9-4-0 run with a .928 SV% and 2.20 GAA while being under siege from the opposition. During that stretch, San Jose has allowed among the most high-danger chances and the second-most shots on net, leading Askarov to average nearly 30 saves per game compared to the league average of 24.
San Jose has continued to be leaky defensively and now pace the league in shots against, and Askarov hasn’t been perfect — he was pulled in a game this month after allowing four goals on 12 shots to the Washington Capitals — but it’s hard to argue that Askarov hasn’t been a prize for the Sharks overall.
The team is 22nd in offense this season — averaging 2.88 goals per game — and has relied on Macklin Celebrini‘s sensational start (with 47 points through 33 games) and Askarov’s netminding to continue punching above their weight class in the Western Conference. That’s a lot of pressure to put on a 23-year-old goaltender, but Askarov was ready to take on a bigger role in the NHL.
Originally drafted 11th overall by Nashville in 2020, Askarov felt pushed aside when the organization signed Juuse Saros to an eight-year contract extension in 2024 and inked Scott Wedgewood to be his backup. Askarov requested a trade, and the Sharks were all-in. After making 13 starts for San Jose last season, going 4-6-2 with an .896 SV%, Askarov is blossoming at just the right time to give the Sharks some hope for the present and future.
0:26
Yaroslav Askarov makes beautiful save
Yaroslav Askarov makes beautiful save
7-8-5 | 2.75 GAA | .906 SV%
Some great player stories end with a thud or turn out to be a flash in the pan. Greaves has been the opposite for Columbus.
Greaves was recalled from the Blue Jackets’ AHL affiliate late last season to bolster Columbus in the crease for the team’s final (albeit unsuccessful) playoff push.
That failure wasn’t for Greaves’ lack of effort, though. The netminder was 4-1-0 through April, with a .975 SV%. His final NHL stat line for the season: 7-2-2, with a .938 SV% and 1.91 GAA.
Could Greaves maintain those types of figures in the long term? Columbus had to find out.
Greaves came into this current campaign in tandem with veteran Elvis Merzlikins, but quickly established himself as closer to the team’s No. 1. His numbers aren’t dazzling, with a .906 SV% and 2.75 GAA, but dig deeper and it’s clear Greaves is the difference-maker Columbus needs. He ranks eighth overall in goals saved above expectation and 10th in save percentage above expected on high-danger shots, per MoneyPuck.
He can’t do it all, of course. The Blue Jackets haven’t been tight defensively this season, and like Hildeby, Greaves’ record (7-8-5) isn’t exactly indicative of his performance. Columbus is allowing the third-most shots on net (31.3) per game, and the fifth-most goals against (3.47), while sitting 23rd in offense (with 2.88 goals per game).
Greaves gives the Blue Jackets a chance, though, by continuing to provide consistency in the cage. That could keep Columbus on track to work its way back into the playoff race this season — if the rest of the Blue Jackets can start helping their goalie.
0:29
Marchenko puts Columbus ahead in shootout, Greaves finishes with save
Marchenko puts Columbus ahead in shootout, Greaves finishes with save
10-7-5 | 2.52 GAA | .915 SV%
Connor Bedard courts most of the headlines in Chicago. Which is just fine with Knight.
The Blackhawks’ goaltender is happy to cede the spotlight to Bedard while providing the necessary backbone in net to preserve the terrific season Bedard — and the Blackhawks in general — have been able to produce.
Knight was the primary return for Chicago when they flipped Seth Jones to Florida last season. Knight was the Panthers’ 13th overall pick in 2019, a standout at Boston College and, at just 20 years old, earned a 5-1 victory in his NHL debut. He worked from there in tandem with Sergei Bobrovsky but Knight’s relationship with the Panthers eventually came to an end due to a salary cap crunch over the goalie’s $4.5 million cap hit.
Florida’s loss has been Chicago’s gain. Knight arrived to the Blackhawks in March 2024 with a 44-25-7 career record, a .906 SV% and 2.76 GAA. It was an inauspicious finish to that campaign for Knight (5-8-2, .896 SV%), but fortunately for Chicago not a sign of things to come.
The 24-year-old has played some of his best hockey this season, going 10-7-5 with a .915 SV%, 2.52 GAA and two shutouts through his first 21 games. He has taken the brunt of the Blackhawks’ workload in front of backup Arvid Soderblom, and Chicago ranks 17th in goals against per game despite giving up the fifth-most shots against. That speaks to Knight’s impact and the way he has helped the Blackhawks push their way into a Western Conference wild-card spot midway through December.
It’s enough to make you wonder how much Team USA GM Bill Guerin is keeping tabs on Knight as a potential option in the crease at the upcoming Milan-Cortina Olympics.
The only looming question about Knight really is: Can he maintain this level as a No. 1? Knight’s previous career high in starts was 32 in 2021-22 with Florida. The Blackhawks will need more than that from Knight, perhaps working him hard all the way into spring.
0:16
Spencer Knight makes beautiful save
Spencer Knight makes beautiful save
11-5-3 | 2.48 GAA | .908 SV%
Vladar can attest that some lessons must be learned the hard (and sometimes painful) way.
It took him a good five years after being drafted by the Boston Bruins in the third round of the 2015 draft to get a shot in the NHL and longer than that to stay full time. That opportunity came with Calgary in 2021, and after working his way to that pinnacle, Vladar wasn’t about to step aside due to a lingering injury. He just kept playing through a torn labrum in his right hip for years, often to his own detriment.
It wasn’t until April 2024, while still with the Flames, that the 6-foot-5 Vladar finally had surgery and started a six-month recovery process. His only regret is not doing it sooner.
Well, the 28-year-old is making up for lost time.
Vladar had a subpar 2024-25 season in Calgary while finding his footing again, post-procedure. The Prague native was stellar in the spring while representing Czechia at the IIHF World Championships (going 3-0-0 with a .951 SV% and 1.09 GAA) and earned himself a two-year, $6.7 million contract with the Flyers in July.
It was tough for Philadelphia to know exactly what they’d get out of Vladar, especially when he was meant to be supporting Samuel Ersson‘s continued development. But a healthy Vladar seized the moment and has been a steadying presence — at 11-5-3 with a .908 SV% and 2.54 GAA — for a Philadelphia team currently holding an Eastern Conference wild-card spot.
Vladar has been a significant part of that success, producing the best numbers of his career. Tweaks like improved skating have allowed him more control over his big body and that has helped him earn coach Rick Tocchet’s trust.
While Vladar may lament not trusting his own instincts about when to go under the knife, that path brought him to Philadelphia and a second chance to be the player he always aspired to be.
0:21
Dan Vladar robs Golden Knights with save
Dan Vladar robs Golden Knights with save
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