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NASCAR’s All-Star Race festivities are in North Wilkesboro, North Carolina this weekend — a track where the stars always came out to shine in an earlier era of Cup Series history. And just like in any other sport, All-Star time represents a chance to take stock of what has happened in the 2025 season so far, recognizing the drivers who have excelled and the ones who haven’t quite met their expectations.

To do that, I’ve graded every full-time Cup Series driver through a weighted combination of key performance indicators — not only using wins or standings points, but a more complete picture of how each driver is performing and, just as importantly, whether they’re meeting preseason expectations.

The formula included a variety of components, each standardized in order to compare drivers on an even scale. In rough order of importance, they were:

Adjusted points+ index (a measure of performance where Cup average is always 100)
Total wins
Standings rank
Average driver rating per race
Average finish (indexed relative to average)
Performance vs. preseason expectations (based on a combination of team/car quality and a driver’s own previous track record)
Head-to-head record vs. teammates (and the strength of those teammates)
Rate of finishing races (indexed relative to average)

From there, I created a weighted “combo” score and assigned letter grades accordingly — reflecting not only raw results, but also context, consistency and surprise value. (Remember, this isn’t just a straight ranking of drivers — you can find that here. Instead, they’re being graded on a curve relative to not only the field, but also themselves and their team.)

With all of that in mind, here’s how the field stacks up ahead of Sunday’s All-Star Race (8 p.m. ET, FS1) and at the sport’s midseason:

Jump to a grade tier:
A | B | C | D | F

Grade A tier

No. 5 Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports: A+

2025 stats: 3 wins, 8 top-fives, 9 top-10s, 9.8 avg. finish
Standings rank: 1st
Adjusted pts+ index (100 = Cup avg.): 241
Avg. driver rating (70 = Cup avg.): 102.6

Another season, another elite drive for Larson — just business as usual for the No. 5 car. Larson found his way into Victory Lane at Homestead, Bristol and, most recently, Kansas, the latter two of which saw him record a pair of near-perfect driver ratings (149.6 and 149.7, respectively) in the span of four races. Further, he has been an immovable fixture up front with nine top-10s in 12 races.

According to pts+, Larson is tracking for his best season (241) since winning the Cup Series title in 2021 (244), and nobody in the series is capable of super-dominant runs quite like Larson. He’s the championship favorite for a reason.


2025 stats: 3 wins, 6 top-fives, 8 top-10s, 11.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 3rd
Adjusted pts+ index: 224
Avg. driver rating: 92.8

This would have been an A-plus when Bell was racking up three consecutive wins earlier in the season, but a recent run of “only” five top-10s in the past eight races drops Bell down to A-grade status. This has still been an impressive year for the 30-year-old Bell, who is having a career season, already matching his high for wins less than a third of the way into the schedule.

Denny Hamlin fans might not want to hear this, but Bell is the No. 1 driver at JGR now, with an 86-58 record against teammates head-to-head over the past two years.


No. 24 William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports: A

2025 stats: 1 win, 5 top-fives, 7 top-10s, 10.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 2nd
Adjusted pts+ index: 202
Avg. driver rating: 103.9

After a 2024 season that, while still good enough to make the Championship 4, wasn’t quite as statistically dominant as in 2023, Byron has possibly been the most consistently excellent driver in Cup this season. (Witness his series lead in average running position at 10.3.) Despite Larson’s near perfection at Kansas, Byron still leads the series in average driver rating, and his second straight win at the Daytona 500 in February solidified his place in the history of the Great American Race.

Even on the same team with fellow stars such as Larson and Chase Elliott, Byron has a 22-14 head-to-head record against his fellow Hendrick drivers.


No. 11 Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing: A-

2025 stats: 2 wins, 5 top-fives, 6 top-10s, 15.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 7th
Adjusted pts+ index: 178
Avg. driver rating: 87.6

Any notions that Hamlin’s on-track career would start to wind down as he aged (he’s 44) and took on other business ventures have proved to be wrong. If anything, Hamlin’s 2025 form — he has two wins, with his best pts+ index since 2021 — shows how hungry he is to shed the label of “NASCAR’s Greatest Driver Without A Cup Title.”

Will this finally be his year? He has seemed ready for that breakthrough many times before, only for the “black cat of death” to cross his path again and again. But there’s no doubt Hamlin will be squarely in the mix at the end of the season.


Grade B Tier

No. 12 Ryan Blaney, Team Penske: B+

2025 stats: 0 wins, 5 top-fives, 6 top-10s, 16.1 avg. finish
Standings rank: 5th
Adjusted pts+ index: 148
Avg. driver rating: 92.6

No star driver has been more snakebit this year than Blaney, who has no wins and nearly as many DNFs (four) as top-five finishes (five). But the overtaking speed is still there; Blaney has a 92.6 average driver rating — fifth best in Cup — and the best per-race pass differential (+13.5) for any driver with more than half of their passes taking place under green and among the top 15 cars in the field. With greater reliability, Blaney ought to contend for another championship by season’s end.


No. 9 Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports: B+

2025 stats: 0 wins, 3 top-fives, 6 top-10s, 11.7 avg. finish
Standings rank: 4th
Adjusted pts+ index: 143
Avg. driver rating: 84.6

There is a paradox to Elliott in recent seasons: Despite his popularity and superstar reputation — and in contrast with his championship form of 2020 — he seems to have traded dominance for increased consistency. In 2025, this has manifested itself in a fourth-place spot in the standings and consistently solid finishes, but no wins and a lack of real contention for them on a weekly basis.

That’s why he doesn’t grade higher; Elliott is well on track to make the playoffs and even advance in them, but at a certain point we need to see the Elliott of old again.


2025 stats: 0 wins, 3 top-fives, 4 top-10s, 13.7 avg. finish
Standings rank: 6th
Adjusted pts+ index: 138
Avg. driver rating: 93.4

Reddick has driven well enough to score an A, but it hasn’t manifested in a victory yet. Only Hendrick teammates Byron and Larson boast a higher average driver rating, and Reddick’s average running position of 10.6 ranks second to Byron this year.

He has come close to winning a few times, so it could happen eventually (he has won multiple races in each of the previous three seasons), though a recent streak of four finishes in 14th or worse isn’t ideal.


No. 21 Josh Berry, Wood Brothers Racing: B+

2025 stats: 1 win, 2 top-fives, 3 top-10s, 21.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 17th
Adjusted pts+ index: 103
Avg. driver rating: 80.5

This feel-good grade is all about outperforming expectations. While the iconic Wood Bros. No. 21 did win a race — and therefore appeared in the playoffs — with Harrison Burton at the wheel last season, that win came at the notoriously chaotic Daytona night race … after Burton already had learned he would not be returning to the team in 2025. Berry’s win this season in the 21, by comparison, came at Las Vegas — in theory, a much more predictable mile-and-a-half track (and therefore a place where it’s much tougher to fluke into a win).

Beyond just the victory, Berry is crushing what was expected in pts+ and driver rating, whether the comparison point was his own previous career or what the once-proud Wood Bros. team had gotten in recent years.


No. 22 Joey Logano, Team Penske: B

2025 stats: 1 win, 1 top-fives, 3 top-10s, 17.3 avg. finish
Standings rank: 9th
Adjusted pts+ index: 114
Avg. driver rating: 89.2

Confusingly, Logano’s 2025 season could warrant a higher or lower grade here. On the positive side, he does have a win, picking up the checkered flag at Texas a few weeks ago, and he has posted driver ratings of 89.2 or higher in eight of 12 races — including four in the triple-digits. But that win was his only top-five finish of the season, and he has only a pair of top-10s outside of it. Unlike his teammate Blaney, Logano can’t blame crashes or blown engines either; he has simply not been consistent in his finishes relative to his potential during those races. It’s something that will need to be cleaned up as the season progresses, but then again, nobody has a better track record of in-season improvement than the three-time champ.


2025 stats: 1 win, 1 top-fives, 3 top-10s, 17.3 avg. finish
Standings rank: 14th
Adjusted pts+ index: 114
Avg. driver rating: 82.8

Despite being a playoff driver in both 2022 and 2024, Cindric has often felt like the forgotten man at Penske, driving in the shadow of a couple of all-timers in Logano and Blaney. But this is shaping up to be a career year for the driver of the No. 2 car, tying his career best in pts+ while blowing away his previous norms in average driver rating.

Better yet, Cindric continues to refine his skills as an all-around driver; instead of a superspeedway specialist who is solid on road courses and subpar everywhere else, he has an 88.4 driver rating on ovals this season. (Compare that to his previous career high of 67.8 from 2022.)


No. 19 Chase Briscoe, Joe Gibbs Racing: B

2025 stats: 0 wins, 4 top-fives, 5 top-10s, 15.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 13th
Adjusted pts+ index: 134
Avg. driver rating: 77.1

Taking over the No. 19 ride at JGR for retiring legend Martin Truex Jr., there was always the expectation that Briscoe would show great improvement from his previous years spent at the fading Stewart-Haas Racing. And that has been true this year, with Briscoe on pace for the best season of his career by far.

Although Briscoe doesn’t have a win yet, he has been a factor in a handful of races and his 19-17 head-to-head record against JGR teammates is better than both Hamlin this year (18-18) and Truex last year (49-59).


No. 48 Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports: B-

2025 stats: 0 wins, 2 top-fives, 7 top-10s, 16.9 avg. finish
Standings rank: 8th
Adjusted pts+ index: 134
Avg. driver rating: 83.1

After years as the fourth wheel at Hendrick — having to share a garage with Jimmie Johnson (whose No. 48 car he later inherited), Larson, Elliott and Byron at various times — Bowman won a race in 2024 (only his second of the Next-Gen car era) and began to close the gap against his prominent teammates.

But that progress has stalled some in 2025: Bowman’s pts+ is 61 points behind his teammate average, his driver rating lags by 13.9 points and he has his worst head-to-head record against teammates (12-24) since going 8-22 as Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s injury replacement in the No. 88 car in 2016. At the same time, Bowman would comfortably make the playoffs on points if the season ended today, so it’s not all bad news for the 48.


No. 1 Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing: B-

2025 stats: 0 wins, 2 top-fives, 6 top-10s, 13.9 avg. finish
Standings rank: 11th
Adjusted pts+ index: 145
Avg. driver rating: 77.6

Chastain is sort of the opposite of Reddick — aside from a lack of wins, his steady finishes have been very good, reminiscent of his early breakout with Trackhouse in 2022 and 2023 … but the fundamentals are less impressive. Chastain’s driver rating and 16.8 average running position are OK, but nothing special, and certainly less than we would have expected from a driver who seemed as if he were on the cusp of stardom as recently as a few years ago.

It would help to see Chastain win a race when he wasn’t already eliminated from championship consideration for the first time since June 2023.


2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-fives, 6 top-10s, 15.5 avg. finish
Standings rank: 12th
Adjusted pts+ index: 122
Avg. driver rating: 76.6

Buescher has quietly done his job and maintained playoff position in the standings, rising above the up-and-down performances of his RFK teammates. For that alone, he deserves a B-tier grade, but he is dragged down a bit simply by the standards he set in the past few seasons. In 2023 and 2024, Buescher won four races with a pts+ index of 143 and an average driver rating of 82.3, the best stretch of performances in his decade-long Cup career.

This year’s numbers are tracking for something a notch below what we’re used to from the No. 17 car, but that’s as much a statement on Buescher’s breakout in previous years as anything happening in 2025.


No. 60 Ryan Preece, RFK Racing: B-

2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-fives, 4 top-10s, 19.8 avg. finish
Standings rank: 16th
Adjusted pts+ index: 97
Avg. driver rating: 80.2

Speaking of RFK drivers, Preece earns a spot here in his first season with the team, on the strength of his solid fundamentals: a driver rating well above the average for both the Cup Series and his teammates (who collectively sit at just 69.1), an average running position (15.8) that ranks 12th best among regular drivers and a .500 record (12-12) against teammates head-to-head.

Aside from a seventh-place run at Kansas, Preece’s finishes haven’t been as good as earlier in the year, but it’s still fair to say he is beating expectations for the No. 60 in its first year running a full schedule.


Grade C tier

2025 stats: 0 wins, 2 top-fives, 4 top-10s, 19.6 avg. finish
Standings rank: 10th
Adjusted pts+ index: 102
Avg. driver rating: 85.0

Wallace was tracking for a career year (and a much better grade) about a month ago, but it has been a struggle for the No. 23 lately. After a pair of top-five finishes at Homestead and Martinsville, Wallace has scored only one top-10 finish in the past five races, with three finishes outside the top 20 in that span, capped off by a pair of consecutive crashes at Texas and Kansas.

The slump has left him barely above average in pts+ and with a bad 11-14 record against his 23XI teammates — but there’s still reason to believe. His driver rating (eighth best) and average running position (sixth best) suggest he has been unlucky, but a ranking like this still has to assign some weight to actual results rather than potential ones.


2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-fives, 4 top-10s, 18.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 19th
Adjusted pts+ index: 91
Avg. driver rating: 56.1

Nemechek earns a C-plus for now, in part because his near-average pts+ and top-20 standings placement represents a massive leap over what we saw out of the No. 42 car in any of the previous few seasons. But under the hood, predictive metrics such as driver rating are less sold on whether this form can continue.


No. 38 Zane Smith, Front Row Motorsports: C+

2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 1 top-10, 18.8 avg. finish
Standings rank: 23rd
Adjusted Pts+ index: 80
Avg. Driver Rating: 64.1

Though his numbers won’t exactly wow you, Smith has improved in his second full Cup season — his typical finish is now better than the Cup average, he has a positive head-to-head record (13-11) against his teammates and a slightly better driver rating than teammate Todd Gilliland had in the No. 38 car last season. He also started on pole at Talladega and led some laps at Homestead as well.


No. 8 Kyle Busch, Richard Childress Racing: C

2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-five, 4 top-10s, 18.1 avg. finish
Standings rank: 18th
Adjusted pts+ index: 96
Avg. driver rating: 75.8

The cases of Busch and Nemechek illustrate how important expectations are to consider when grading NASCAR drivers. Despite near-identical results, one man’s surprisingly half-decent start to the season can be a supremely frustrating year for another — as is the case with Busch, for whom an early run of three straight top-10s in the first four races is now a distant memory.

More recently, Busch has one top-10 in the past eight races, with five finishes of 20th or worse over that same stretch. The hope has been that Busch’s rare winless 2024 (the first time he hadn’t driven to Victory Lane in 20 years) was simply a down year for one of the greatest stock car drivers, but it’s looking more like an average performance is about what we can expect from the No. 8 car at this point.


2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-five, 2 top-10s, 17.3 avg. finish
Standings rank: 15th
Adjusted pts+ index: 91
Avg. driver rating: 59.0

Stenhouse is difficult to grade, because it’s tough to say whether he’s driving well or not. On the one hand, he hasn’t finished worse than 25th in any race this year, with eight appearances among the top 20 in 12 starts (including two top-10s and a top-five at Atlanta — no surprise for the superspeedway master). On the other hand, he has been the opposite of dominant, even in most of those decent runs — his driver rating has broken 90 only once, 80 twice and 70 three times, with a dreadful 51.3 mark or worse in half of his races.

So while Stenhouse would sneak into the playoffs on points if the season ended today, it’s doubtful that will remain true (for many reasons), and he doesn’t have the form of a winning driver unless he can luck into a win at one of the two remaining drafting-style tracks before the playoff cut.


No. 3 Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing: C

2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 3 top-10s, 18.4 avg. finish
Standings rank: 22nd
Adjusted pts+ index: 86
Avg. driver rating: 62.9

Dillon is the very definition of a C-grade driver this season. Having long since shed the expectations of being anything more than a mid-pack mainstay who can occasionally play spoiler with a chaotic win, Dillon is actually doing better this year than in either 2023 or 2024, when he ranked among the most disappointing drivers in the Cup Series.

In 2025, he has seven finishes of 18th or better, and his driver rating has strayed outside the 60s only five times in 12 races. He still might need to wreck the field to even think about making the playoffs, but Dillon has nonetheless been far from terrible.


No. 34 Todd Gilliland, Front Row Motorsports: C

2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 2 top-10s, 18.8 avg. finish
Standings rank: 24th
Adjusted pts+ index: 82
Avg. driver rating: 62.1

Swapping to the No. 34 from former teammate Michael McDowell, Gilliland has held steady in his overall form as compared with a year ago. On the plus side, his average finish is now 4% better than the Cup average, versus 8% worse last season; on the minus, his driver rating is down from 64.3.

But while Gilliland’s first year as Front Row’s lead driver has had ups and downs, he’ll go into the All-Star Race coming off an 11th-place finish at Texas and a 12th-place finish at Kansas.


2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 0 top-10s, 19.1 avg. finish
Standings rank: 21st
Adjusted pts+ index: 77
Avg. driver rating: 63.1

Like many drivers in this C-tier group, McDowell’s mark reflects a complicated picture of performance relative to many different expectations. After seven years driving for Bob Jenkins at Front Row, where he had experienced his greatest highs as a driver — winning the Daytona 500 — and transformed himself from a journeyman to a perennial playoff contender and race winner, McDowell moved to Spire for 2025, where he has beaten teammates head-to-head (15-9 record) and improved vastly on Zane Smith’s numbers behind the wheel of the No. 71 a year ago.

At the same time, he has no top-10s and uniformly subpar metrics relative to Cup average this season.


No. 77 Carson Hocevar, Spire Motorsports: C-

2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-five, 2 top-10s, 22.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 20th
Adjusted pts+ index: 85
Avg. driver rating: 73.2

Hocevar, 22, has had his flashes of brilliance this season — including a pole at Texas, leading laps in half of his starts (he’s currently riding a streak of four straight races led), and three different races with a triple-digit driver rating. But Hocevar earns a C-minus because of what he has left to learn, from greater respect for his fellow racers to better racecraft to turn that above-average driver rating into something better than a 22.2 average finish.

Hocevar’s head-to-head record against teammates has gone from a incredible 51-21 last season to 10-14 this year, and though that reflects the improved talent of teammates McDowell and Justin Haley, they are still collectively below .500 against all other drivers — yet Hocevar can’t consistently finish ahead of them despite his speed.


No. 99 Daniel Suarez, Trackhouse Racing: C-

2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-five, 3 top-10s, 20.9 avg. finish
Standings rank: 27th
Adjusted pts+ index: 87
Avg. driver rating: 64.8

Coming off one of the best seasons of his career (with a memorable three-wide photo finish win at Atlanta and a second-round playoff run), Suarez was expected to further build on that success in 2025. Instead, it has been an uneven start to the season, with the No. 99 car finishing outside the top 30 more times (four) than it has been inside the top 10 (three).

The only things keeping Suarez’s grade from dipping into D territory are that his underlying performance hasn’t necessarily been much different — his driver rating is up from 64.6 — and that Trackhouse as a whole has been much worse in 2025. Rather than only Suarez losing ground, his average teammate pts+ has also dipped from 127 to 88. In part, that has been due to the addition of a third chartered car, but the net result has been Suarez carrying a far better head-to-head record (15-11) against teammates than the 13-23 mark he had a year ago.


Grade D tier

No. 54 Ty Gibbs, Joe Gibbs Racing: D+

2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-five, 2 top-10s, 20.6 avg. finish
Standings rank: 26th
Adjusted Pts+ index: 80
Avg. Driver Rating: 64.9

The Ty Gibbs breakout appeared to be upon us at various times last season, and though he fell off down the stretch of the 2024 schedule, expectations were high that the 22-year-old would win his first Cup race — at the very least, if not more — in 2025. But that hasn’t happened; if anything, Gibbs has taken a nosedive in practically all of his major indicators so far this year.

On a team with the equipment to contend in every race, it has been highly disappointing for Gibbs to remain winless with a single top-five, two top-10s and only four races with an above-average driver rating.


No. 10 Ty Dillon, Kaulig Racing: D+

2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 0 top-10s, 22.3 avg. finish
Standings rank: 30th
Adjusted Pts+ index: 58
Avg. Driver Rating: 50.0

Dillon has improved his pts+ and driver rating from the last time we saw him as a full-time Cup entrant, with Spire in 2023, but he still ranks fifth-to-last in average driver rating among regular drivers this season.


No. 4 Noah Gragson, Front Row Motorsports: D

2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-five, 2 top-10s, 22.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 31st
Adjusted pts+ index: 73
Avg. driver rating: 61.2

Gragson rescued his career in Stewart-Haas’ swan song last season, following a season from hell with Legacy Motor Club in 2023. But after moving on to Front Row for 2025, Gragson has taken a tumble backward again.

Granted, the fall hasn’t been as steep as it was in ’23, but he looks worse by every major indicator, and he has not kept pace with his new teammates — posting a 9-15 head-to-head record (a year after going a solid 60-48 against his SHR counterparts).


No. 43 Erik Jones, Legacy Motor Club: D

2025 stats: 0 wins, 1 top-five, 1 top-10, 22.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 29th
Adjusted pts+ index: 68
Avg. driver rating: 57.1

While Legacy teammate John Hunter Nemechek has improved this season, Jones has stayed roughly the same in his performance level as the past few years. A driver who once had the talent to secure a full-time ride at JGR, and then rose above his equipment with Richard Petty Motorsports, seems to have stalled out now.


2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 3 top-10s, 22.5 avg. finish
Standings rank: 25th
Adjusted pts+ index: 72
Avg. driver rating: 62.9

Allmendinger’s celebrated return to a full-time Cup drive in 2025 has been hit or (mostly) miss. Though he has a trio of top-10s (at Las Vegas, Homestead and Bristol), his overall performance is quite a bit lower than it was in partial duty over the previous handful of seasons. Allmendinger is just 4-8 head-to-head against his Kaulig teammates this season, after going a combined 48-31 versus Kaulig competition from 2021 to 2024.


No. 7 Justin Haley, Spire Motorsports: D-

2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-five, 1 top-10, 21.1 avg. finish
Standings rank: 28th
Adjusted pts+ index: 65
Avg. driver rating: 58.2

What began as a potentially promising 2025 season for Haley — being paired with Kevin Harvick’s former championship-winning crew chief, Rodney Childers — has already gone sideways, with the recent divorce between Childers and Spire only nine races into their partnership. Aside from that shake-up, Haley’s results are somewhat better than they were when split between Spire and Rick Ware Racing last season … though they are far from what Haley seemed he might be capable of in an earlier phase of his career.


No. 41 Cole Custer, Haas Factory Team: D-

2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 0 top-10s, 25.6 avg. finish
Standings rank: 34th
Adjusted pts+ index: 42
Avg. driver rating: 45.5

The 2023 Xfinity Series champion made his return to Cup as the lone driver for the team formerly known as SHR (where Custer drove in 2020-22), and the results have been as much of a struggle as you might expect. Only two full-time drivers have a worse average driver rating.


2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 0 top-10s, 24.7 avg. finish
Standings rank: 32nd
Adjusted pts+ index: 47
Avg. driver rating: 48.1

Despite having a good team behind him at 23XI, Herbst’s first full season at the Cup level has been trending in the wrong direction: After four top-20 finishes in his first five starts of the season, Herbst boasts one (a 14th-place run at Texas) in the seven races since. He has gone just 8-17 head-to-head against a combination of Tyler Reddick, Bubba Wallace and Corey Heim this year.


Grade F tier

2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 1 top-10, 26.8 avg. finish
Standings rank: 35th
Adjusted pts+ index: 45
Avg. driver rating: 45.1

This is one of the most painful grades to hand out because Van Gisbergen had been such an exciting and promising driver in part-time action over the preceding two seasons. Though a decent amount of that came at his specialty in road courses — where he won his Cup debut at Chicago, and nearly won at The Glen before Buescher tracked him down with a final-lap pass — he also ran eight non-road course races in Cup last year, plus a full 33-race Xfinity schedule in which he appeared to acquit himself decently well on other track types.

All of which makes it more puzzling that SVG has such terrible numbers in 2025, including the second-worst average driver rating in the Cup Series. Though he led 23 laps and posted a 120.6 rating at COTA in March, that was his lone finish of better than 20th, and he carries an average rating below 50 at ovals (36.0), short tracks (28.3) and superspeedways (49.2) alike.


2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 0 top-10s, 27.2 avg. finish
Standings rank: 33rd
Adjusted pts+ index: 41
Avg. driver rating: 61.5

The other real shocker on the grading sheet, Keselowski’s 2025 season has been completely out of character for the 2012 Cup Series champion. We thought his performance upon leaving Penske for RFK in 2022 (80 pts+, 67.9 driver rating) was what a bad Keselowski season looked like. We had no idea that a year this miserable was even possible for a driver of his historic caliber — but Keselowski has only three finishes better than 26th all year, an adjusted pts+ index 59% (!) worse than Cup average, and a stunning 42% of his races have been DNFs (including crashes in each of the past three weekends).

Maybe the All-Star Race will be a natural break in the schedule to try to salvage something going forward, because it’s hard to imagine a worse start to the season than what Keselowski has produced so far.


No. 51 Cody Ware, Rick Ware Racing: F

2025 stats: 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 0 top-10s, 30.8 avg. finish
Standings rank: 36th
Adjusted pts+ index: 22
Avg. driver rating: 32.4

Ware’s best finish of the year is 24th, he has been 30th or worse nine times in 12 races, and he hasn’t cracked a 50 driver rating all season. Enough said.

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How every five-star college football recruit fits at his new school

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How every five-star college football recruit fits at his new school

College football’s Class of 2026 features a record 23 five-star prospects atop ESPN’s latest top 300 rankings for the cycle. Among that group, only seven remain uncommitted, including No. 1 overall prospect Lamar Brown and top running back Derrek Cooper, No. 7 in the ESPN 300. After nearly one-third of the 2026 five-star class made their commitments between May 1 and June 30, a handful more are set to come off the board in July.

For each commitment, recruiting reporter Eli Lederman and scouts Craig Haubert and Tom Luginbill will look at how recruits landed at their school and what we can expect in college:

2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 2

School/Hometown: St. Frances Academy/Baltimore, Maryland

Committed to: Maryland Terrapins

Background: Once ranked as the cycle’s No. 1 defender, Elee committed to Maryland on Dec. 7, 2024, after logging 120 total tackles and 23 sacks across his sophomore and junior seasons. If he ultimately signs later this year, Elee will join the Terps as the highest-ranked recruit in program history.

Despite his December pledge, Elee stayed in touch with other Power 4 programs in January and initially scheduled spring official visits to Auburn, Ohio State, Penn State, South Carolina and Texas A&M before canceling those trips and formally shutting down his recruitment in late February. As things stand, Elee is still locked in with the Terps with his June 20 trip to Maryland standing as the only official visit on his calendar this spring.

Scout’s take: Good recruiting starts at home. If Maryland holds on to Elee, he’d be the first No. 1 prospect from the area to reach Maryland in the ESPN 300 era, and the first time in five cycles the Terps landed the top in-state prospect. At roughly 6-foot-4 with an 80-inch wingspan, Elee is a lean, lengthy and disruptive edge rusher. That length blended with an excellent first step and a strong motor wreaks havoc off the edge. Maryland ranked last in sacks (14) in the Big Ten in 2024. The Terps hope signing Elee and 2025 ESPN 300 defensive end Zahir Mathis will remedy that situation. They could emerge as one of the conference’s most formidable pass-rushing duos. — Craig Haubert


2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 3

School/Hometown: Nixa High School/Nixa, Missouri

Committed to: Miami Hurricanes

Background: Cantwell is the son of two Olympic shot putters — including a silver medalist at the 2008 Beijing Games — and his commitment to the Hurricanes marks perhaps the biggest recruiting win in Mario Cristobal’s tenure leading Miami.

A towering, yet athletic lineman, Cantwell kept in-state Missouri and Michigan involved in his process before cutting his finalists to Georgia, Miami, Ohio State and Oregon last month. Cantwell took a multi-day trip to see the Hurricanes in March and joins Miami as the program’s highest-ranked pledge since Cristobal took over following the 2021 season. Cantwell, a two-time state champion shot putter who holds multiple national high school throwing records, intends to continue his track and field career alongside football in college.

Scout’s take: A former offensive lineman at Miami, Cristobal has landed a key building block for that unit. The Canes’ O-Line unit looks to be strong this season, but could lose several pieces from that group after this season. Cristobal began reloading the unit in the Class of 2025, by signing the top interior offensive lineman in the country in S.J. Alofaituli, who projects to be in the mix this fall. Now the Canes has the No. 1 OT in the 2026 class.

Cantwell is a massive presence at roughly 6-foot-7 and 320 pounds and is powerful and tenacious in his play. Beyond his size, Cantwell is a flexible big body with good feet. He could have some growing pains early in his college career in pass protection, but should be expected to come in and play right away. His arrival could time well with the potential departure of 2023 five-star OL Francis Mauigoa who is projected as a 2026 first-round NFL pick. Cantwell could have a similar trajectory as Mauigoa in that he is a plug-and-play addition that experiences some early challenges but continues to develop into a key piece of the unit and an eventual NFL prospect. — Haubert


2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 4

School/Hometown: Mater Dei/Santa Ana, California

Committed to: Ohio State Buckeyes

Background: The son of late Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Chris Henry, Chris Henry Jr. has been committed since July 2023, longer than any other prospect within the 2026 ESPN 300.

A knee injury sidelined Henry for the majority of his junior campaign, but he proved himself as an elite playmaker in his last complete season, when he totaled 71 catches for 1,127 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns as a sophomore at Withrow (Ohio) High School in 2023. Initially set for official visits to Ohio State, Miami, Oregon and USC this spring, Henry shut down his recruitment April 1.

Scout’s take: To best maximize his traits, the Buckeyes will need to deploy Henry on the outside. He’s a one-on-one matchup problem on 50-50 balls whom Ohio State can maximize — particularly in the red zone. Even when covered, he isn’t really covered. Few wide receivers 6-foot-5 or taller can move, shake and produce after the catch like Henry. He shows an amazing run-and-catch aspect in the vertical passing game. Henry’s long arms and ability to elevate in traffic create distinct advantages on jump balls. His twitchiness is very similar to that of Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins and sets him apart from other receivers at this size. — Tom Luginbill


2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 5

School/Hometown: Nashville, Tennessee/Nashville Christian

Committed to: Georgia Bulldogs

Background: Initially committed to Georgia in March 2024, Curtis took a winding road back to the Bulldogs’ 2026 class after he pulled his pledge and reopened his recruitment last October.

Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon and South Carolina were all involved in Curtis’ process earlier this year. Curtis narrowed his options to the Bulldogs and Ducks in February, ultimately closing his recruitment with a series of visits and in-home meetings with both programs this spring prior to his May 5 announcement. In the 6-foot-4, 225-pound passer, coach Kirby Smart once again has the cycle’s top quarterback and a potential cornerstone for the program’s future under center.

Scout’s take: Curtis will join a QB room at Georgia that is loaded with former ranked prospects and his move will likely send one or more of those players to the transfer portal. Curtis has ideal size at 6-3, 222 pounds and has tracked at 18.5 MPH Max Speed which is impressive for someone his size. His measurable standard in every category tested meets or exceeds every measure you’d like to have in a QB prospect.

He has natural arm power, which is his best trait, and he makes throws from a lot of different arm angles. He has been clocked at a 4.8 40. He can be a crafty runner and use his athleticism, smarts and arm talent to make throws in and out of the pocket. — Luginbill


2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 6

School/Hometown: American Heritage/Plantation, Florida

Committed to: Texas Longhorns

Background: Bell, the son of 12-year NBA veteran Raja Bell, is the longest-tenured member of the Longhorns’ 2026 class. He has been locked in with Texas since he committed in June 2024 following a series of visits with the program last spring.

A three-year starter at American Heritage, Bell threw for 2,597 yards and 29 touchdowns with a 70.6% completion percentage as a junior last fall before suffering a season-ending leg injury. Despite flip efforts from Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and LSU earlier this year, Bell’s sights remain set on signing with the Longhorns and coach Steve Sarkisian in December.

Scout’s take: Hopefully Bell takes a page out of Arch Manning’s development blueprint when it comes to patience and focus. He’s going to only get bigger, stronger and more mature without being thrown into the fire right away. Bell’s fit is quite similar to what Manning brought to the Longhorns. He’s a naturally gifted passer who is a better athlete and runner than Quinn Ewers and gives the Longhorns another player they can develop. Bell has continually performed at a high level against top high school competition and should be ready to make the leap to the next level. — Luginbill


2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 8

School/Hometown: Grimsley High School/Greensboro, North Carolina

Committed to: Tennessee Volunteers

Background: Brandon committed to the Vols last August before totaling 2,159 passing yards and 27 touchdowns with one interception as a junior at Grimsley last fall.

Brandon remains in near-daily contact with the Tennessee staff and has not engaged with other programs in 2025. He is focused instead on helping recruit a 2026 Vols class that already includes ESPN 300 pass catchers in wide receiver Tyreek King and tight end Carson Sneed. Brandon will take his official visit to Tennessee on June 20.

Scout’s take: The departure of Nico Iamaleava could allow Brandon to battle for the starting job sooner rather than later in a very quarterback-friendly system. Several recent Volunteers quarterbacks have similar stature, athleticism and arm strength. Brandon is more advanced than Hendon Hooker at the same stage and the pair share several traits. Brandon is also much more accurate than Joe Milton. While he lacks Iamaleava’s polish at this stage, Brandon throws an exceptional deep ball, which is a requirement in this scheme that loves to attack vertically. — Luginbill


2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 9

School/Hometown: Tupelo High School/Tupelo, Mississippi

Committed to: Florida Gators

Background: ESPN’s No. 2 defender in the 2026 class has logged 18.5 sacks and more than 140 total tackles over three varsity seasons. If he signs with the Gators in December, he’ll represent Florida’s highest-ranked defensive addition in more than a decade.

McCoy initially committed to LSU earlier this year before reopening his recruitment in February. He trimmed his list of finalists to Florida, LSU and Texas last month, then sealed his commitment to the Gators across a pair of visits with the program between May 30 and June 14. McCoy will join former No. 10 overall prospect L.J. McCray as the program’s second five-star defensive end when he arrives on campus in 2026.

Scout’s take: The Gators finished last season strong, creating optimism for 2025 and beyond in the Billy Napier era. Part of the strong close was improved defensive play, and while further improvement and more consistency is needed among its front, Florida is stacking some excellent young talent to further fuel the excitement.

Former ESPN 300 edge rusher signees Tyreak Sapp and Kamran James should help fuel their ascension, but defenders more recently added can boost this unit to another level. The hope is that McCray, a five-star in the 2024 class, will break out and several new high-ceiling D-line signings — including No. 6 DE Jalen Wiggins — can get involved.

Florida is stopping there and now add to the mix another five-star defender in McCoy. A breakout performer during the Under Armour All-America week this past January, that setting showcased his impact ability. He has elite length with a big frame and has demonstrated a competitive “alpha dog” nature and plays with a motor. He has also shown good practice habits and all those traits are accentuated with his excellent physical tools. He moves well with good flexibility and has excelled in combine testing situations. He can develop into an disruptive, top pass rusher but can also play the run and be a factor in pursuit with his mobility.

McCoy has shown all the tools, that with continued positive progress, would align with past top SEC defenders. With his build, size and competitiveness, he can offer versatility as he can pair with McCray at the Edge spot initially but could also play inside at DT.


2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 10

School/Hometown: Hattiesburg/Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Committed to: LSU Tigers

Background: Keys, ESPN’s No. 2 wide receiver prospect, committed to LSU over Alabama, Tennessee and Texas A&M on March 19. He enters late spring as the Tigers’ top-ranked commit and the leader atop one of the nation’s deepest wide receiver classes alongside fellow ESPN 300 pass catchers and LSU pledges Jabari Mack, Jakai Anderson and Kenny Darby.

However, Keys’ recruitment might not be over. The 6-foot-3, 190-pound receiver followed his commitment to LSU with visits to Ole Miss, Auburn and Miami, and Keys is still expected to take a handful of officials later this spring as perhaps the top flip candidate among the committed five-star prospects in the 2026 class.

Scout’s take: Even if he’s not an elite runner, Keys’ combination of size, range and ball skills is unmatched. Former LSU receiver Brandon LaFell is a favorable comparison. The Tigers can use Keys’ length, long arms and physicality to create matchup headaches for defenses either inside or outside. Keys has great body control and coordination on jump balls, making him a dangerous threat even when covered. He won’t win a lot of open-field foot races, but Keys could develop into a go-to option if utilized in the slot against zone coverages or on the outside for deep balls. — Luginbill


2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 11

School/Hometown: Reidsville/Reidsville, North Carolina

Committed to: Oregon Ducks

Background: Harrison kept a recruiting profile after he committed to Oregon over Tennessee, North Carolina, Miami, Penn State and Florida State before officially shutting down his recruitment in March.

A two-sport star who is committed to play basketball with the Ducks, Harrison remains the top-ranked member of an Oregon recruiting class that has lost four top-150 pledges since mid-February. Harrison, North Carolina’s second-ranked recruit in 2026, will be back on campus for an official visit with the Ducks in June.

Scout’s take: The tight end position played a pivotal role in Oregon fielding one of college football’s best passing attacks in 2024, with Terrance Ferguson hauling in 43 catches. While Harrison won’t arrive for another season, he’ll help the Ducks reload at that spot and could supply even greater big-play ability.

For Ferguson, the presence of Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart opened up more room to operate. Oregon’s high-level recruiting should allow Harrison to enjoy a similar situation playing alongside No. 1 wide receiver Dakorien Moore. An excellent basketball player, the 6-foot-6 Harrison has elite height, length and a massive catch radius. Much like former basketball-to-football standouts Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates and Julius Thomas, Harrison can high-point the ball and box out defenders in contested situations, giving Oregon another dangerous playmaker in the passing game. — Haubert


2026 ESPN 300 ranking: No. 13

Committed to: Oregon Ducks

Background: Initially set to announce his decision on Aug. 5, Iheanacho moved up his commitment and joined Kendre’ Harrison and safety Jett Washington as the Ducks’ third five-star pledge in 2026.

Iheanacho, the 6-foot-7, 350-pound prospect from North Bethesda, Maryland, is ESPN’s second-ranked offensive tackle in 2026. He took visits to each of Auburn, LSU, Oregon and Penn State this spring before solidifying his place as the second-ranked pledge in the Ducks’ incoming class. After losing four-star pledge Kodi Greene (No. 38 overall) and missing on Miami commit and No. 1 offensive tackle Jackson Cantwell (No. 3) this spring, Ihenacho gives coach Dan Lanning and Oregon a much-needed cornerstone on the offensive line this cycle.

Scout’s take: The five-star is a huge addition for the Ducks, literally, as Iheanacho is a massive physical presence consistently measuring in at roughly 6-foot-6 and around 350 pounds. At this past January’s Under Armour All-America game, mixed with many of the nations top juniors and seniors, Iheanacho physically stood out among that offensive line group. His large frame also comes with elite arm length and he uses it well with violent hands.

His ranking though goes beyond just physical measurables as he also possesses good flexibility and not surprisingly is a powerful player. He is listed at tackle, but during that UA All-America week he worked at left tackle and left guard and could find a home, at least initially, at guard. At that spot, his size and power can be utilized while he further refines his footwork, but in the long run, he has exhibited to the tools to develop into an NFL-caliber lineman.

The Ducks are utilizing the portal to build their O-Line for 2025 with several notable transfers added to that unit. Youth will play a role in the future though. In the 2025 class, the Ducks signed five-star OT Douglas Utu and now have Iheanacho and ESPN 300 guard, and former Cal commit, Tommy Tofi. — Haubert


2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 14

School/Hometown: Mount Miguel High School/Spring Valley, California

Committed to: Texas A&M Aggies

Background: Considered among the fastest prospects in the 2026 cycle, Arrington landed as the cornerstone pledge of an increasingly deep Texas A&M recruiting class.

Arrington, a 6-foot-1 sprinter from outside of San Diego, visited Penn State, Washington, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oregon before narrowing his recruitment to the Aggies and Ducks. With a combination of height, length and speed that Texas A&M coaches have compared to the build of former All-SEC cornerback Will Lee, Arrington carries the potential to develop into a first-round caliber defensive back at the next level. If he ultimately lands with the Aggies later this year, he’ll join as the program’s highest-ranked signee under coach Mike Elko and its top addition since defensive tackle David Hicks (No. 8) in the 2023 class.

Scout’s take: Arrington brings a lot of the same traits that Jaylen Mbakwe brought to Alabama last fall. He’s a dynamic athlete who could play multiple positions but projects best on defense because of his length and elite level speed. Texas A&M is getting a smooth, fluid playmaker with excellent ball skills that should be able to find him a spot in the rotation sooner rather than later given his mature skill set and the fact he plays at a premium position that every program in America covets.

Outside of Dezz Ricks, the majority of the depth, including starters at corner, are all upperclassman. Arrington is going to have to fight and scrap to prove that he’s mature enough to make the jump because he’s more than ready from a talent perspective. — Luginbill


2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 15

School/Hometown: Archbishop Hoban/Akron, Ohio

Committed to: USC Trojans

Background: ESPN’s No. 1 cornerback prospect followed five-star offensive tackle Keenyi Pepe as the second five-star pledge in Trojans coach Lincoln Riley’s star-studded 2026 class.

Hill grew up two hours northeast of Ohio State and visited the in-state Buckeyes along with Alabama, Oregon and USC earlier this spring. But no program pushed harder to land Hill than the Trojans, who secured his pledge after a second spring visit to Southern California over the last weekend of April. As things stands, Hill is the highest-ranked pledge in the nation’s deepest recruiting class and sits as the top prospect committed to an impressive USC defensive class in 2026.

Scout’s take: Hill is a total football player and very dynamic. He has grown almost two inches over the last few years, and is now 5-11, which has greatly enhanced his value on the perimeter. He’s a leaper as well allowing him to mask some height deficiencies. He plays on both sides of the ball with tremendous ball and playmaker skills. Hill also has elite speed, posting a 4.4 laser 40 and 21.3 mph max speed. He reminds us of former USC standout Adoree Jackson, another smooth and quick footed shutdown corner. He could even be an option on offense. He’s a premier player at a premium position and USC is continuing to make strides on defense. — Luginbill


2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 16

School/Hometown: Legacy the School of Sports Sciences/Spring Creek, Texas

Committed to: Houston Cougars

Background: Henderson stands among the most intriguing quarterback prospects in the 2026 cycle and remains the subject of flip efforts from some of the nation’s top programs despite his long-standing pledge to Houston, situated roughly 28 miles from his home.

Committed to the Cougars since May 27, 2024, Henderson has repeatedly emphasized his intention to stick with Houston this spring. But those public rebuffs have not stopped programs such as Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Georgia, Ohio State and Oregon from keeping in touch in recent months, and Henderson’s recruitment certainly remains one to watch as the 2026 quarterback market plays out from now to the early signing period.

Scout’s take: It’s unclear whether Henderson pans out at quarterback or another position. His fundamentals are raw, but he’s very competitive and productive. Henderson is similar to Duke transfer quarterback Darian Mensah, who was recruited by coach Willie Fritz to Tulane before Fritz took the Houston job. Landing Henderson is a significant pickup for the Cougars, even if he’s not polished enough to make an immediate impact. He’s a developmental player who needs more consistency in the passing game and more downfield arm strength. Henderson builds toward his top-end speed as opposed to being initially explosive. He has hit 20.6 mph on tape, which is a great time for a quarterback. Henderson has a high ceiling regardless of his position. — Luginbill


2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 17

School/Hometown: IMG Academy/Bradenton, Florida

Committed to: USC Trojans

Background: Originally from Long Beach California, the 6-foot-7, 325-pound offensive tackle from Florida’s IMG Academy is set for a return to Southern California as the top-ranked pledge in coach Lincoln Riley’s 2026 class at USC.

Pepe is one of four offensive tackles among 2026’s five-star prospects. He took over as the starting left tackle at IMG Academy during his junior season last fall and stiff-armed the likes of Florida, Georgia, Miami and Texas to join the Trojans’ incoming class, where he projects as a potentially foundational piece for the future on the offensive line.

Scout’s take: Now a member of the Big Ten, USC is working to strengthen its roster in the trenches. The Trojans’ 2026 class already has double-digit commitments along the offensive and defensive lines. Now, Pepe becomes the highest-ranked player in the class. There will be some turnover of the offensive line heading into the 2025 season with redshirt sophomore Elijah Paige returning at left tackle. Aaron Dunn and Alex Payne, both 2025 linemen ranked in the ESPN 300, come in with the 2025 class to provide young depth at least. Combine them with Pepe in the 2026 class, and USC has retooled its offensive line with some impactful recruits.

Coming out of IMG, Pepe is a prospect who has faced strong competition in practice and games. He gives the Trojans a big man who can play a key role early in his career much like Paige, who stepped in as a starter as a redshirt freshman last season. Pepe is a massive presence at roughly 6-foot-7 and 320 pounds with excellent arm length. He is more than just a big body as he is also light on his feet for his size and has good flexibility. He can continue to work on and be more consistent in some technical areas but demonstrated as a junior at the Under Armour All-America game that he is competitive, wants to learn and get better and can match up and battle against elite edge rushers. Pepe has the tools to be a starter and anchor the Trojans OL and could end up being a nice replacement for Paige at left tackle in the future. — Haubert


2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 18

School/Hometown: Sierra Canyon High School/Chatsworth, California

Committed to: Texas Longhorns

Background: Briefly committed to Oregon in May, Wesley found a new home when he committed to the Longhorns on June 22 shortly after wrapping an official visit with the program. Wesley, a 6-foot-5, 250-pound pass rusher from Chatsworth, California, entered the ESPN 300 as a five-star prospect and the nation’s No. 3 defensive end upon reclassifying from the 2027 cycle in March. He made unofficial visits to Ohio State, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M and USC this spring before scheduling officials with Oregon and Texas in June. Upon his commitment, he joined five-star Longhorns quarterback Dia Bell (No. 6 overall) commit as Texas’ second five-star pledge in 2026.

Scout’s take: Wesley has the most impact potential of any defensive line prospect coming out of the Southern California area since Kayvon Thibodeaux in 2019. He will join a talented D-line group in Texas’ 2026 class. Headed to the SEC, he reminds us of a former disruptive defender in that conference — former Ole Miss standout Robert Nkemdiche.

Wesley has more ideal length but is a well put-together prospect with a nice blend of height and bulk. He can bring versatility in how he’s used, with the ability to play on the edge and also produce inside and exploit favorable matchups with his blend of power and quickness.

He reclassified from 2027 class to 2026 and when you see him in-person, it is clear he is able physically to make that jump and be ready to move onto college. He could be a quick contributor as well. He can continue to further improve flexibility, but he is an explosive defender with active and heavy hands who can attack with speed and power as a pass rusher and be able to set the edge.

With national championship aspirations, the Longhorns turned to the transfer portal to restock their defensive line for 2025, but the future of this unit will be driven by youth with players like Wesley.

His arrival is set to overlap with current standout edge defender Colin Simmons, whose presence could help Wesley ease into a role while still contributing and having an impact like Simmons did as a freshman in 2024. He could also pair nicely with 2025 signee five-star Justus Terry, who is in a similar mold to Wesley and the two could form a formidable pair for a defensive line unit that is adding the pieces to become one of the most talented in all of college football over the next few years. — Haubert


2026 ESPN 300 ranking: No. 20

Committed to: Texas Tech Red Raiders

Background: The Red Raiders’ monster offseason of recruiting/transfer portal additions continued on July 4th when Ojo, ESPN’s No. 4 offensive tackle prospects, announced his pledge to Texas Tech.

After naming Florida, Michigan, Ohio State and Texas as his finalists, Ojo came back around on coach Joey McGuire and the Red Raiders. The 6-foot-7, 285-pounder did take an official visit to Lubbock in April, and Ojo will mark Texas Tech’s highest-ranked all-time signee if he signs with the program later this year. Of note, Ojo is also set to join the Red Raiders on a fully guaranteed three-year, $5.1 million dollar revenue contract, believed to be one of the largest guaranteed deals in college football history.

Scout’s take: Of the four offensive tackles ranked within the five-star range, Ojo is the least likely to be a plug-and-play candidate when he steps onto campus. He is ranked highly because he has excellent raw tools and arguably the highest ceiling for development.

He has elite length, consistently measuring in at 6-foot-6 with over an 80-inch wingspan and has shown he can use that length to his advantage. He is also a big man that has tested well and shows good flexibility. However, he is lean — at least 30 pounds lighter than the rest of the five-star tackles and needs to pack on more mass once he gets into the Red Raiders’ strength program. He can bend but needs to develop his footwork and be more consistent with his pad level and add the size to help counter power rushers.

Joey McGuire created a buzz when he signed in-state five-star receiver Micah Hudson in 2024, and, while that big signing has not met expectations, Hudson is back in the program and there is time and a wealth of ability to utilize. McGuire now has done it again by landing another five-star prospect from within the state in Ojo. While it might take time for Ojo’s impact to be felt, it is still a statement win on the recruiting trail. On the field, Ojo won’t face the same immediate expectations that Hudson arrived with and that is good for Ojo and his development.

The Red Raiders have worked the transfer portal well and their tackle spots will likely be manned by transfers backed up by a deep pool of freshmen within that unit. A larger spotlight will shine of Ojo at Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders still look likely to be in a position to give him some time to grow before needing to push him into action. If he develops, Ojo has the tools to be an all-conference, NFL-caliber tackle and anchor on the offensive line. — Haubert


2026 ESPN 300 ranking: No. 23

Committed to: Oregon Ducks

Background: ESPN’s No. 1 safety in the 2026 class, Washington committed to the Ducks over Alabama and USC on June 19, landing as the top-ranked defender in the program’s 2026 class.

Washington is the nephew of the late Los Angeles Lakers legend Kobe Bryant and a two-sport star at Las Vegas powerhouse Bishop Gorman High School. He recorded 38 tackles and five interceptions during his junior season last fall before leading Bishop Gorman’s basketball program to its second consecutive Nevada Class 5A state basketball title earlier this year.

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Judge, Ohtani and … Ernie Clement? First-half MVPs and playoff odds for all 30 MLB teams

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Judge, Ohtani and ... Ernie Clement? First-half MVPs and playoff odds for all 30 MLB teams

Welcome to the middle of the 2025 MLB season. We’ve already passed the natural halfway point (1,215 games) and are nearing the symbolic version of midseason (the All-Star break). Either way, we’ve seen more regular-season baseball in 2025 than we’ll get the rest of the way.

With that in mind, let’s wade into this month’s Stock Watch by taking a retrospective spin around the majors. As usual, we’ll slot teams according to the current competitive hierarchy and see how the picture has changed since we last convened. In addition, we’ll note the dominant storyline that has emerged for each club and hand out first-half MVP awards for all 30 teams.

Should we name those awards? The Stockies? No? OK, fine. Let’s just get to it.

Win average: 101.4 (Last month: 97.9, 3rd)
In the playoffs: 99.7% (Last: 97.2%)
Champions: 24.0% (Last: 16.2%)

First-half storyline: The Dodgers spent the first few months of the season proving the adage that you can’t have too much pitching. A team with an overstuffed pitching depth chart entering the spring has not just endured an avalanche of injuries to the staff, but many of those who have pitched have underachieved. And yet, because the offense has beaten its projection by nearly 100 park-neutral runs per 162 games, the Dodgers are doing just fine, thank you. And the worst of the injury spate has to be behind them at this point. Right?

First-half MVP: Shohei Ohtani (145 AXE, 1st on Dodgers, 3rd in MLB). Ohtani’s OPS is over 1.000 for the third season in a row. He’s on pace to top his career-high 54 homers from last season and score more than 150 runs. He has recently returned to the mound but looks fantastic. Just wait until we see this two-way act on an October stage.


Win average: 97.9 (Last: 99.6, 1st)
In the playoffs: 99.8% (Last: 99.3%)
Champions: 14.4% (Last: 15.6%)

First-half storyline: It’s the year of the Tiger. Detroit has broken out in a stunning way, and it’s thrilling to watch. If the season ended today, the Tigers’ Pythagorean winning percentage would be one of the five best in franchise history, behind only historic teams from 1909 (Ty Cobb), 1934-35 (Hank Greenberg) and 1968 (Denny McLain). It would be ahead of 1984 (Kirk Gibson). Yes, it’s that kind of season for the Tigers.

First-half MVP: Tarik Skubal (138 AXE, 1st on Tigers, 6th in MLB). Skubal has gone to a place that few pitchers reach. He’s in the top four of the AL in wins (1st), ERA (4th) and strikeouts (2nd). Given his trajectory, it’s possible Skubal will win his second straight pitching Triple Crown. The only pitchers to do that in back-to-back seasons: Grover Alexander (1915-16), Lefty Grove (1930-31) and Sandy Koufax (1965-66).


Win average: 96.1 (Last: 97.3, 4th)
In the playoffs: 97.2% (Last: 96.7%)
Champions: 12.6% (Last: 12.3%)

First-half storyline: An offensive explosion. The Cubs’ offense figured to be better after the offseason acquisition of Kyle Tucker. Tucker has been as advertised, but Chicago has gotten production up and down the lineup and is on pace to beat its park-neutral run forecast by 102 runs. The Cubs’ 121 team OPS+ so far is their best since — hold on to your hat — 1884.

First-half MVP: (tie) Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong (139 AXE, 1st and 2nd on Cubs, 4th and 5th in MLB). Tucker has a minuscule AXE edge when you go into decimals, but it’s fitting that these dynamic outfielders are co-MVPs when we round off. Again, it has been more than these two. The Cubs’ total of seven players with a 110 AXE or better is tied for second in the majors. Six of them are hitters.


Win average: 94.7 (Last: 89.5, 6th)
In the playoffs: 98.5% (Last: 83.4%)
Champions: 8.9% (Last: 4.2%)

First-half storyline: The window is open. Those (yes, me) who were heralding the imminent demise of the Astros’ dynasty now look like Cassandras. Despite the loss of Kyle Tucker, an injury-riddled half for Yordan Alvarez, a so-so start for Jose Altuve, lackluster production from key signee Christian Walker and the loss of the orange juice theme of its ballpark, Houston once again sits in the catbird seat of the AL West. The pitching — Hunter Brown and the game’s best bullpen — is the main reason, but the Tucker trade (getting Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith from the Cubs) has worked out swimmingly.

First-half MVP: Jeremy Pena (137 AXE, 1st on Astros, 8th in MLB). Pena recently hit the injured list because of a fractured rib. Given the way Houston has responded to adversity to date, the Astros probably won’t lose a game while he’s out. That’s nothing against Pena, who, in his age-27 season, has been baseball’s best shortstop this season.


Win average: 93.5 (Last: 88.6, 8th)
In the playoffs: 93.8% (Last: 65.0%)
Champions: 7.6% (Last: 3.0%)

First-half storyline: They are up in arms in Philadelphia. According to AXE, three of the top six NL starters and four of the top 11 are members of Philadelphia’s rotation … and no one in that quartet is named Aaron Nola. Zack Wheeler, co-front-runner for NL Cy Young with Paul Skenes, leads the way, but Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo have been excellent. Mick Abel and Taijuan Walker have chipped in. If Nola can get healthy and productive, and if Andrew Painter is anything close to advertised, the Phillies will feature baseball’s best and deepest rotation.

First-half MVP: Zack Wheeler (138 AXE, 1st on Phillies, 7th in MLB). At 35, Wheeler has flashed career-best levels in ERA+, FIP, WHIP and SO/9. If Wheeler doesn’t land his first Cy Young Award, it will be because someone like Skenes takes it from him, not because he doesn’t earn it.


Win average: 92.4 (Last: 97.3, 5th)
In the playoffs: 95.8% (Last: 98.0%)
Champions: 12.8% (Last: 18.6%)

First-half storyline: Improv time in the Bronx. The Yankees’ run profile is almost exactly on target with the preseason projection, yet this season has not followed the script. The pitching has mostly held up despite Gerrit Cole‘s season-ending injury and Devin Williams‘ mysterious inconsistencies. The hitting has found its level around Aaron Judge despite Juan Soto‘s departure and that Giancarlo Stanton‘s first homer didn’t happen until July 2. Yet, as things began to ebb in June, the outcome of this Yankees story is very hard to foresee now.

First-half MVP: Aaron Judge (159 AXE, 1st on Yankees, 1st in MLB). Despite a temporary recent downtick that now seems to be over, Judge is hitting .363/.470/.735 and is on pace for 12 WAR while playing every Yankees game so far. Don’t take this guy for granted, baseball fans — even those of you who don’t like the Yankees — because this is incredibly special.


Win average: 89.4 (Last: 98.2, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 75.7% (Last: 97.7%)
Champions: 3.2% (Last: 13.5%)

First-half storyline: Peaked too soon? The Mets got off to a roaring start but slumped miserably over the second half of June. Through June 12, New York was 45-24 and owned baseball’s best ERA, mostly thanks to an MLB-low 2.79 mark from the rotation. New York dropped 14 of 18 after that while posting the worst rotation ERA (5.93), bullpen ERA (6.53) and, of course, overall ERA (6.24) during that span. Injuries have played a big part in the plunge, but a team built on depth — which the Mets are — should hold up better than this. July is a really big month for this team.

First-half MVP: Pete Alonso (129 AXE, 1st on Mets, 18th in MLB). It’s a good thing the Mets paid Alonso during the winter. They’ve gotten the hottest version of the Polar Bear yet, one who suddenly discovered the joys of the line drive. Still, that Alonso lands in this slot rather than Juan Soto or Francisco Lindor (both 126 AXE) is a bit of an upset and, perhaps, an omen of happy regression from here.


Win average: 88.2 (Last: 85.6, 12th)
In the playoffs: 82.4% (Last: 56.9%)
Champions: 4.5% (Last: 2.0%)

First-half storyline: Major offense in a minor venue. The Rays dropped to a season-low five games under .500 on May 20 and proceeded to win 27 of 40 behind a surging offense. The Rays scored 20 more runs than any other team during the spree, as they joined division rival Toronto in bearing down on the Yankees for the AL East lead. As usual, the Rays are doing it with a roster of players casual fans might be pressed to identify. Tampa Bay might be playing in a minor league venue, but the Rays’ way continues to flourish in the majors.

First-half MVP: Jonathan Aranda (123 AXE, 1st on Rays, 42nd in MLB). Well, something clicked for Aranda, a 27-year-old first baseman who entered 2025 as a career .222 hitter. He has tacked on nearly 100 points to that mark this season with excellent secondary skills. His 123 AXE is tops among AL primary first basemen, including All-Star starter Vladimir Guerrero Jr.


Win average: 87.5 (Last: 84.8, 13th)
In the playoffs: 61.7% (Last: 34.5%)
Champions: 2.1% (Last: 0.9%)

First-half storyline: More than enough good. No, that’s not bad syntax, it’s how the 2025 Brewers are built. Yet, Milwaukee is in the thick of postseason contention and it’s not because of any star-level breakouts, not even from super-talented Jackson Chourio. Instead, the Brewers have 18 players in the 100-to-119 AXE range, second most in baseball behind St. Louis. No greatness, just lots of goodness.

First-half MVP: Brice Turang (119 AXE, 1st on Brewers, 65th in MLB). Turang is again flashing Gold Glove defense at second base and stealing bags when he gets on base, which he has been doing more than ever. His OBP is fueled by a .288 batting average, which, in turn, is fueled by a .363 BABIP. Fluke? There might be some regression in store, but the improvements are real. Turang’s line drive rate is 3% better than the league average, and his hard-hit rate has jumped by 16.3% over last season. Turang has tacked on 4.6 mph to his 2024 average exit velocity.


Win average: 86.9 (Last: 84.3, 15th)
In the playoffs: 72.7% (Last: 46.2%)
Champions: 1.8% (Last: 1.0%)

First-half storyline: Staying afloat. The Blue Jays are even in the AL East standings with the Yankees shortly after July began despite the run differential of a middle-of-the-pack team. The Jays have gotten little from key signee Anthony Santander. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been very good but not great. Same for Bo Bichette. The key high-leverage relievers (Jeff Hoffman and Chad Green) have been coughing up too many homers. And yet, here the Jays are … and some of these problems might regress in the right direction. Or maybe the run differential is more of who the Jays are than the record. This is why we play 162-game seasons, to sort out stuff like this.

First-half MVP: Ernie Clement (119 AXE, 2nd on Blue Jays, 63rd in MLB). Guerrero leads the Jays in AXE (121), but we’re going to shine a light on the surprising Clement. Not that this is a race we track, but he has to be the front-runner for the AL Gold Glove at the utility player position. At the plate, he has made the most of his high-contact style. The defense, in particular, underscores a big factor in Toronto’s success: MLB-best defensive metrics.


Win average: 85.6 (Last: 84.5, 14th)
In the playoffs: 66.5% (Last: 51.1%)
Champions: 2.4% (Last: 1.9%)

First-half storyline: Rotation injuries. The Mariners have mostly spread out their injuries, but their core-five starting rotation has not been whole this season. Given that knowledge at the beginning of the season, you would not expect Seattle to be where it is, which is in position to land a wild-card slot if the season ended now. And that rotation has a good chance of getting whole as the season progresses.

First-half MVP: Cal Raleigh (149 AXE, 1st on Mariners, 2nd in MLB). Entering the season, Raleigh had a good case to be considered baseball’s best catcher. And, sure, he has hit a lot of homers the past couple of years. But could anyone have envisioned this? This is more than a breakout. This is a player on pace to shatter Mickey Mantle’s record for single-season homers by a switch-hitter (54 in 1961). And he’s a Gold Glove catcher.


Win average: 85.6 (Last: 88.4, 9th)
In the playoffs: 41.3% (Last: 62.0%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 1.9%)

First-half storyline: Covering the holes. Entering the season, the Padres figured to have some glaring lineup holes, and that has been the case. But San Diego has stayed in contention behind the star power of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, and the work of a deep and dominant bullpen. As for those holes? We’ve got a month until the trade deadline.

First-half MVP: Fernando Tatis Jr. (131 AXE, 1st on Padres, 15th in MLB). Post-suspension Tatis still operates at a lower level than pre-suspension Tatis. Before missing the 2022 season, Tatis had a 160 OPS+ and averaged 8 bWAR per 162 games. Since coming back, he’s at 118 OPS and 5.7 bWAR per 162 games. But Tatis is still really good, and always has that ability to be great stashed in his hip pocket.


Win average: 85.5 (Last: 85.7, 11th)
In the playoffs: 43.2% (Last: 42.1%)
Champions: 1.0% (Last: 1.1%)

First-half storyline: One fast transition. In retrospect, we might have overreacted to the Cardinals’ offseason rhetoric about 2025 being about positioning for the front office transfer of power to Chaim Bloom. The Cardinals took a passive approach to player acquisition and caught plenty of heat for it. They also removed obstacles in front of a number of their in-house talents, and that has paid off in a big way so far this season.

First-half MVP: Sonny Gray (118 AXE, 1st on Cardinals, 76th in MLB). Like Milwaukee, the Cardinals have succeeded thanks to a depth of solid performances rather than any breakouts. Some of those solid performers are key to St. Louis’ future: Matthew Liberatore, Victor Scott II, Masyn Winn. But the veteran Gray, who might have been dealt if not for his contract’s no-trade clause, has led the way.


Win average: 84.4 (Last: 89.1, 7th)
In the playoffs: 35.5% (Last: 67.0%)
Champions: 1.2% (Last: 2.4%)

First-half storyline: Buster’s breakout followed by a bust-out? Under first-time exec Buster Posey, the Giants exploded out of the gate. Then, they bolstered a lineup light on power with the season’s biggest trade to date, bringing in the suddenly positionally flexible Rafael Devers. Yet, the Giants have since slumped, winning just five of Devers’ first 10 appearances with the team. Where that leaves Posey and the Giants is unclear, but it’s nothing a Devers power spree and a few wins wouldn’t fix.

First-half MVP: Logan Webb (126 AXE, 1st on Giants, 26th in MLB). Webb was already established as the closest thing to a durable, top-of-the-rotation starter as we can hope to get in today’s game. This season, he has amped up the run prevention as well, posting a career-high and NL-best 2.32 FIP while again leading the circuit in innings. Alas, on the heels of two straight top-10 Cy Young finishes, as of now, it looks like Webb will have to get even stingier if he is to overtake Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler in the awards race.


Win average: 82.5 (Last: 79.0, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 19.4% (Last: 8.4%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.2%)

First-half storyline: Rambling rotation. The Reds’ game score winning percentage (.612) is the best in the National League and second overall behind the Yankees. This has happened despite Hunter Greene‘s injury and tepid debuts by exciting prospects Chase Petty and Chase Burns. Andrew Abbott has been as hot as any pitcher in baseball, and the trio of Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer and Nick Martinez has been consistently productive. This has a chance to be a very exciting group down the stretch.

First-half MVP: Elly De La Cruz (127 AXE, 1st on Reds, 25th in MLB). De La Cruz is on pace for 34 homers and 41 steals while soaring past 100 runs and 100 RBIs. His OPS+ has risen to 125 on the strength of improving strikeout rates. It kind of feels like he can do more, too. But that might always be the case for De La Cruz, no matter what his numbers look like, simply because he’s such a marvel to watch on the field.


Win average: 82.4 (Last: 81.2, 18th)
In the playoffs: 20.9% (Last: 16.1%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 0.4%)

First-half storyline: Not what we signed up for. The D-backs appeared positioned to possibly challenge the Dodgers in the NL West, thanks largely to a stacked starting rotation bolstered by the high-dollar signing of Corbin Burnes. Burnes’ season ended after 11 starts, while Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez are on the wrong side of 5.00 ERAs. The bullpen, weakened by injuries to A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez, has been even worse. Too often, Arizona has had to outscore the opposition.

First-half MVP: Eugenio Suarez (124 AXE, 3rd on Diamondbacks, 37th in MLB). Suarez is a hair behind Corbin Carroll (126) and Ketel Marte (125) on the AXE leaderboard, but his potent power bat has perhaps been more crucial to Arizona’s ability to hang around .500. Carroll and Marte have given the Snakes about what they expected — which is considerable — but Suarez has outstripped his projection and helped to shore up shortfalls elsewhere on the roster. From 2021 to 2024, Suarez averaged 2.4 bWAR per season; this year, he’s already at 2.5.


Win average: 81.1 (Last: 79.6, 21st)
In the playoffs: 27.3% (Last: 18.4%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 0.3%)

First-half storyline: Complete lack of an attack. Two years after riding a dynamic offense to a championship, the Rangers have morphed into an all-pitch, no-hit team despite a lineup with many of the same players. And the positions that have turned over have tended to go to promising prospects such as Josh Jung (recently demoted), Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter. In 2023, the Rangers’ 4.77 home-scoring average ranked sixth in the majors. This season, their 3.76 mark ranks 27th.

First-half MVP: Jacob deGrom (128 AXE, 1st on Rangers, 20th in MLB). On the bright side, deGrom is back and he’s still very much Jacob deGrom … and seemingly getting better with each outing. In general, the rotation has been a bright spot for Texas, whose top three performers by AXE are deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle.


Win average: 80.0 (Last: 79.8, 20th)
In the playoffs: 11.2% (Last: 12.6%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.4%)

First-half storyline: What happened? Last season, the Braves figured prominently into our preseason coverage when we wondered whether it was they or the Dodgers who would emerge as baseball’s power team. Once again, the forecasts were high on Atlanta’s chance to have a bounce-back season and return to the top of a competitive NL East. A couple of days ago, the Braves slipped behind the Marlins in the standings. When you look at an IL that includes Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach, it’s a dispiriting season in Cobb County.

First-half MVP: Matt Olson (125 AXE, 1st on Braves, 34th in MLB). Olson hasn’t produced at the level he flashed in 2023, when he mashed 54 homers and put up 7.5 bWAR. But he has produced and he has also been there, which is more than you can say about most of Atlanta’s other key players. Olson still hasn’t missed a game since joining the Braves as Freddie Freeman‘s replacement in 2022.


Win average: 79.8 (Last: 80.0, 19th)
In the playoffs: 17.8% (Last: 20.3%)
Champions: 0.3% (Last: 0.5%)

First-half storyline: It’s not about who’s here, but who is not. When you look at the roster of the 2018 champion Red Sox and how many of the key players are still star-level players for other teams, this is going to cast a pall over Fenway Park until a new group emerges to win at a high level. Any hopes of that cloud lifting because of the passage of time were dashed when Boston traded Rafael Devers.

First-half MVP: Garrett Crochet (134 AXE, 1st on Red Sox, 11th in MLB). Crochet pitched this well last season for the White Sox, his first full season as a big league starting pitcher. But it wasn’t quite a full season because Chicago tamped down his usage in advance of dealing him for maximum return. Trading for Crochet for a valuable combination of prospects was a bit of a leap of faith by Craig Breslow. Well, you can quibble with a lot of things that have happened in Boston, but so far, the Crochet trade is not one of them.


Win average: 79.7 (Last: 87.2, 10th)
In the playoffs: 18.0% (Last: 68.8%)
Champions: 0.3% (Last: 2.9%)

First-half storyline: Close, but no cigar. The Twins are another team whose park-neutral runs and runs allowed paces are on track to meet forecasts. Their record, however, is not. Why? Look no further than the Twins’ 8-15 record in one-run games. An optimist would suggest that this should even out. The problem is that it’s probably already too late for the Twins in the division race, and they are but one of a legion of teams in the AL’s middle wondering if they are really playoff contenders.

First-half MVP: Byron Buxton (130 AXE, 1st on Twins, 16th in MLB). Buxton is on pace to play in 130 games. That might not sound too impressive, but if he were to get there, it would be the most games he has played in since 2017. A healthy (or mostly healthy) Buxton is something to behold. He has already topped his 2024 totals in homers and steals and is close in bWAR, even though he has appeared in only 69 games. (He played in 102 last season.) Let us all take a moment to knock on wood.


Win average: 77.3 (Last: 81.9, 16th)
In the playoffs: 8.5% (Last: 28.5%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.4%)

First-half storyline: Could really use Josh Naylor. The Guardians’ position player roster this season is dominated by below-replacement performances. You can understand the desire to open things up for power prospect Kyle Manzardo, who has been up and down. But Naylor was a foundational producer for a team that was a couple of wins shy of the World Series in 2024. The lineup needed him a lot more than the rotation needed Slade Cecconi, who has been fine over eight starts. You can’t help but wonder if Cleveland, owner of baseball’s oldest title drought, will ever stop pushing things down the line.

First-half MVP: Jose Ramirez (128 AXE, 1st on Guardians, 24th in MLB). Who else? Ramirez is on target to do what he does every year, across the board. His isolated power is down a touch, but Ramirez remains more than capable of going on a binge to clear that up. This is another season to boost Ramirez’s future Hall of Fame case.


Win average: 76.3 (Last: 73.2, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 6.2% (Last: 2.7%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Bittersweet surprise. The Angels are a mild surprise because they appeared, at various junctures, like a team about to slide back into the basement. But the 2025 Angels have been fairly resilient despite another Mike Trout injury and lack of superstar production, Ron Washington’s season-ending health issue and widespread bullpen woes, aside from closer Kenley Jansen. It’s to their credit that they’ve stayed close to .500, and there have been some positive developments on the roster. That doesn’t make them contenders.

First-half MVP: Yusei Kikuchi (117 AXE, 1st on Angels, 80th in MLB). The Angels’ rotation has been solid and a big reason the team has stayed competitive. The addition of Kikuchi has been the biggest upgrade. The 34-year-old lefty has mostly retained the gains he made after being traded from Toronto to Houston last season, save for an uptick in walks. He’s not an ace, but he has given the Halos a consistent presence in a rotation that, over the years, has lacked stability.


Win average: 76.2 (Last: 81.3, 17th)
In the playoffs: 5.9% (Last: 25.7%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.5%)

First-half storyline: Oh no, there’s no O. The Royals have been an above-average team in most areas of what helps a team win: defense, baserunning, starting rotation and bullpen. It has all been undermined by wretched hitting. Kansas City has averaged 3.77 runs per game on the road, ranking 25th. That’s bad! But it looks explosive compared with what the Royals have done at the K: 2.84 runs per game. That’s not only last in the majors, but it’s not even close to the second-worst mark (3.58 by Cleveland). If you watch the Royals regularly, hopefully you’ve been wearing a hat because otherwise watching this team hit has likely caused you to pull out all your hair.

First-half MVP: Bobby Witt Jr. (134 AXE, 1st on Royals, 12th in MLB). Witt has been terrific. He hasn’t been as terrific as he was in 2024, and somehow, he finished behind Jacob Wilson of the A’s in the All-Star voting. Witt is perhaps a victim of the standards he set in 2024. Witt is still on pace for 56 doubles, 43 steals and more than 7 bWAR. It’s a “down” season most players can only dream of, and it’s certainly not Witt’s fault the Royals’ offense has been so bad.


Win average: 71.8 (Last: 67.2, 26th)
In the playoffs: 0.3% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Evil rumors. Low-level buzz that maybe the Pirates should look to trade Paul Skenes didn’t come from the team, so you don’t want to bash Pittsburgh for that. But you kind of do because such suggestions should not be possible. They are only because it feels so unlikely that the Pirates will invest in building a contender around Skenes. But again: If you trade this guy during his second season, what are you building for? Anyway, it hasn’t happened. Skenes has been great; the team has not.

First-half MVP: Paul Skenes (137 AXE, 1st on Pirates, 9th in MLB). Skenes is 41 starts into his career, and his ERA remains under two: 1.99, over 244 innings. His ERA+ is 213. It’s the best ever given a minimum career total of 41 starts. Sure, Skenes might hit rough patches and the number would go up. But he’s got a lot of room for error: second best is Kodai Senga (160 over 43 starts) and third is Jacob deGrom (157 over 235 starts).


Win average: 71.1 (Last: 69.4, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.7% (Last: 0.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Thud. Our last preseason Stock Watch pegged the Orioles at 88 wins with a 65% shot at returning to the postseason. That outlook has changed.

First-half MVP: Gunnar Henderson (119 AXE, 1st on Orioles, 70th in MLB). That Henderson would top the Orioles’ AXE leaderboard is no surprise. That he would do so with a 119 mark certainly is — last season, he finished at an MVP-like 150. Henderson has trended upward after a bad April, and there’s nothing really to worry about. Still, his step back is emblematic of Baltimore’s mystifyingly lost season.


Win average: 69.7 (Last: 62.4, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Bobbing back to the surface. There certainly was no particular reason to think the Marlins would be interesting this season, beyond what might possibly happen around the trade deadline with getting-better-fast starter Sandy Alcantara. Give the Fish and first-year manager Clayton McCullough credit, though, because the Marlins enter our July Stock Watch as one of baseball’s hottest teams. In fact, if you go to windows of “past 50 games,” Miami has split those games, better than division mates Atlanta and Washington, a game worse than the Mets and just four behind the Phillies. At the very least, you can say that despite a bad start and zero expectations, Miami has not thrown in the towel.

First-half MVP: Kyle Stowers (114 AXE, 2nd on Marlins, 108th in MLB). Stowers is behind Otto Lopez (116 AXE) for the Marlins, but we’ll give him a nod for his huge strides at the plate. The former Orioles prospect entered the season with a career slash line of .208/.268/.332 over 117 games. This season, he’s at .286/.360/.520 in 80 games, upping his homer total from six to 21 and more than doubling his RBI count. He’s not a star, but he has been a key part of a team that has been kind of fun to watch lately.


Win average: 68.3 (Last: 72.4, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.7%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: How long is this going to take? If you zero in on the player level, there is plenty on the Nationals’ roster you can point to as a positive sign: James Wood‘s ascension, the play of CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore, the presence of touted prospects Dylan Crews and Brady House. The bottom line is that a team that hasn’t sniffed .500 since winning the 2019 championship has a winning percentage worse than what it posted in each of the past two seasons. The Nationals need to make a leap, sooner rather than later.

First-half MVP: James Wood (135 AXE, 1st on Nationals, 10th in MLB). Wood is the real deal, a hyped prospect who manifested his ability as soon as he hit the majors. He’s 165 games in at this point and owns a 144 OPS+, 30 homers, 104 RBIs and 26 steals. His power is somehow both explosive and effortless, and his plate discipline is outstanding for such a young slugger. It should only get better from here.


Win average: 65.9 (Last: 64.3, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Is it the park or the pitcher? The Athletics teased us with becoming an exciting sleeper wild-card contender. Then they lapsed into a horrifying slump, a 3-24 disaster during which the staff ERA was 7.79. That would be bad in slow-pitch softball. So much for contention. The Athletics have bounced back to an extent, but their season ERA is 5.67, ahead of only the Rockies. And while Sacramento has not been a hospitable place for the pitchers, the A’s can take solace in the fact that their road ERA is also well over five. It’s just not a good pitching staff.

First-half MVP: Jacob Wilson (123 AXE, 1st on Athletics, 44th in MLB). Wilson has fallen off after an exhilarating start that had his batting average at .372 through June 8. But he’s still a gas to watch, and apparently a lot of people have because Wilson will start at shortstop for the AL in the All-Star Game. As good as Wilson has been at the plate so far in the majors, his defensive metrics have been well in the red. Which kind of makes him the bizarro version of his father, Jack.


Win average: 56.2 (Last: 58.2, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Roster turnover. GM Chris Getz has been a transaction lover as a lead exec, and after the pain of the initial tear-down period, things are starting to feel downright coherent. Some of the prospects have played well in the majors, such as Chase Meidroth and Kyle Teel. The starting rotation has become above average, and that position group has a gaggle of high-upside prospects on the way. The White Sox still lose a lot of games, and the bullpen saves leader is a three-way tie with two. But things have grown considerably less dim than they were at this time last year. Granted, that’s a low bar, but it could be worse.

First-half MVP: Adrian Houser (112 AXE, 1st on White Sox, 132nd in MLB). Houser is our one first-half MVP who didn’t start the season with his team. But he has put up a 1.90 ERA over seven starts after being released by Texas in May. In doing so, he has become someone who might generate interest at the trade deadline. In that way, he’s an avatar for what the White Sox’s modus operandi is at this point: talent accumulation, in every way you can do it.


Win average: 41.8 (Last: 40.8, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Historic ineptitude. We wish we could put it nicer than that, but the Rockies are on pace to win 36 games and post a run differential of minus-422. And this isn’t a team following any kind of obvious rebuilding scheme, beyond the reality that when you’re this bad, you are by definition rebuilding. Somehow, the fact that the Rockies are still drawing well at the gate makes this even worse. It’s like a Monty Python sketch.

First-half MVP: Hunter Goodman (116 AXE, 1st on Rockies, 94th in MLB). No snark needed here — Goodman has been pretty solid and, at 25, he is young enough that maybe the gains are legit. The best part of Goodman’s first half is that his numbers are actually a lot better away from Coors: .925 road OPS; .790 at home. He’s been good.

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From a Cy Young winner to an All-Star closer: One player every MLB team should trade for (or away) this July

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From a Cy Young winner to an All-Star closer: One player every MLB team should trade for (or away) this July

This year’s MLB trade deadline is going to be complicated. So many teams are currently in the playoff race — only eight are more than five games out of a wild card — that it might make for a slow deadline if all those clubs remain in contention by the end of July.

One thing is clear, however: The Arizona Diamondbacks are the fulcrum of this deadline, with the ability to make it a lot more interesting if they decide to trade away their players heading into free agency — a group that includes slugging third baseman Eugenio Suarez, starters Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, .300-hitting first baseman Josh Naylor and rejuvenated closer Shelby Miller.

While there’s always a desire for ownership and the front office to go for it and not sell out a clubhouse that has worked hard to get into the playoff chase — let alone sell out the fans who have supported the team — that’s not always possible.

This past weekend’s sweep at the hands of the Miami Marlins was a crushing three games and decreased their playoff odds by about 11 percentage points, to under 20%. Factoring into Arizona’s ultimate thought process: Corbin Burnes is done for the season following Tommy John surgery, and with Gallen continuing to struggle with a 5.45 ERA, the rotation just hasn’t been competitive. A run to the postseason feels unlikely, and a run through October even less so.

As July kicks off, we present our annual list of one player every team should trade for (or away) before the July 31 deadline. And yes, we have the Diamondbacks saying goodbye to a number of their impending free agents. Let’s start with them.

Jump to team:

American League
ATH | BAL | BOS | CHW | CLE
DET | HOU | KC | LAA | MIN
NYY | SEA | TB | TEX | TOR

National League
ARI | ATL | CHC | CIN | COL
LAD | MIA | MIL | NYM | PHI
PIT | SD | SF | STL | WSH


Arizona Diamondbacks: Trade away Eugenio Suarez

In a deadline that lacks a marquee superstar — remember that the biggest names of the past two deadlines, Shohei Ohtani in 2023 and Garrett Crochet in 2024, weren’t traded anyway — Suarez might be the best player who gets traded. He’s having a huge power season, hitting .254/.324/.564 with 26 home runs, recently belting his 300th home run to cement his underrated career. His strikeout rate is the lowest it’s been since 2018 as he has made a concerted effort to swing a little more often early in the count. It’s paid off. The Diamondbacks also have top prospect Jordan Lawlar ready in the minors to take over at third. He’s a natural shortstop, but Geraldo Perdomo has locked down that position and Lawlar’s bat should still play at third.


There are several contenders in need of an upgrade at third base, including the Cubs and Reds, but the Tigers and Mariners might have the edge in prospect depth to make the deal. The Tigers will likely make multiple moves — no doubt, adding a bullpen arm at a minimum — and while the lineup has shown surprising depth, adding Suarez to hit between lefties Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene feels like the perfect fit while allowing Zach McKinstry to return to his utility role. Suarez would also hedge against some of the possible regression from the likes of McKinstry, Javier Baez, Gleyber Torres and Spencer Torkelson, who have performed much better than last season.

The Mariners have been playing Miles Mastrobuoni and rookie Ben Williamson at third base. They chip in an occasional single but have combined for just two home runs in over 300 at-bats. With Cal Raleigh accounting for a third of the Mariners’ home runs — granted, he has hit a lot of them — Suarez would add a much-needed cleanup hitter to bat behind Raleigh. Oh, and it would rectify the big mistake president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto made when he traded Suarez to Arizona after the 2023 season in a cost-cutting move.


Kelly is the type of pitcher who used to be called a bulldog. He battles, he’s tough, and he gets the most out of an arsenal that features a pedestrian 92 mph fastball. Every team would love to have him in its rotation and, for what it’s worth, he was excellent in the 2023 postseason for Arizona when he posted a 2.25 ERA across four starts. He had a nine-run blowup in his second outing of 2025 but is pitching better than ever since then with a 2.83 ERA and more strikeouts than innings pitched.

The Cardinals continue to exceed expectations, and Kelly’s $7 million contract would be especially attractive to them — or any team looking for a starter at an affordable rate, for that matter. As for the need: The Cardinals rank in the middle of the pack in the majors in rotation ERA, but Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante and Miles Mikolas are averaging fewer than 6.5 strikeouts per nine. (St. Louis is 26th in rotation strikeout rate.) Kelly would give them a better strikeout pitcher to go alongside Sonny Gray to head a potential playoff rotation.


The Rangers have struggled to score runs — 3.77 per game, nearly two fewer runs per game than 2023 — and while they’re looking up at the wild-card leaders, they don’t want to give up on a season where they have Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle dominating on the mound (although Mahle is out with shoulder fatigue). The Rangers rank 22nd in the majors in OPS at first base and last at DH, so even factoring in this season’s odd low-run environment at Globe Life Field, Naylor is a solution for either position, especially considering their DHs this past week included light-hitting journeyman Sam Haggerty and whichever catcher wasn’t starting.


Alcantara is signed for $17.3 million in 2026 with a $21 million team option for 2027, so even though his season stats look scary — 4-8, 6.98 ERA — the 2022 Cy Young winner still fits as a long-term option for a trade partner. More importantly, the results were at least better in June with a 4.34 ERA and .689 OPS allowed, although there are still concerns about his low swing-and-miss rate despite a fastball averaging 97.3 mph.

The Marlins don’t have to trade him, of course, and given how bad their rotation has been — only the Rockies have a worse ERA — you can argue that trading him will only open a hole they’ll have to fill for next season anyway. They just went 6-0 on their road trip, and if they play well over the next month, it becomes less likely they trade Alcantara, with the view that he’ll be a necessary part of a potentially better team in 2026. It all comes down to the prospect haul, however, and Alcantara’s recent performance might be enough to swing a deal.


The Cubs feel like the perfect match for multiple reasons. Their rotations ranks 22nd in ERA and 17th in innings, so they’re getting neither great production nor enough lengthy outings from their starters. The bullpen has held up to the stress so far with the second-best ERA in the majors, but acquiring Alcantara would add depth behind Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga, the team’s only reliable starters.

A question the Cubs will have to evaluate: Alcantara has a higher-than-average ground ball rate, so will having Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner behind him help? That seems logical, but the Marlins have allowed a slightly lower average on ground balls this season than the Cubs, so it’s probably a negligible difference. The Cubs do have the better overall defense thanks to their outfield, but Alcantara has not been pitching into bad luck (indeed, his actual batting average allowed of .266 is lower than his expected average of .280).

Astros general manager Dana Brown just talked about looking for a left-handed bat to help his right-heavy lineup, but the Astros have a track record for making big pitching moves like this at the deadline: Justin Verlander in 2017, Zack Greinke in 2019 and Verlander again in 2023. The one-two punch of Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez is as good as it gets, but the rotation is currently counting on unheralded rookies Colton Gordon and Brandon Walter, who have been pleasant surprises and pounding the strike zone (a combined 68 strikeouts and seven walks in 71⅓ innings) but might be over their heads right now. With Valdez heading to free agency, Alcantara would also provide insurance if they lose Valdez in the offseason.


It’s starting to look a little desperate in Kansas City. The Royals are only 4½ games out of the third wild card, but they have six teams to climb over, Jac Caglianone has failed to ignite the offense, and they went 8-17 in June. They’ll need a major Bobby Witt Jr. heater just to get close by the trade deadline. The emergence of Kris Bubic as a likely All-Star pitcher plus rookie Noah Cameron give the Royals some rotation depth to deal from, and Lugo remains an extremely attractive trade option, as he’s signed through at least next year (he owns a player option for 2027) and has a 2.74 ERA in 2025. Aside from Caglianone, the Royals’ system lacks impact hitters in the upper minors. Trading Lugo gives them the chance to help their offense for the future.


It’s hard to believe the Dodgers might need another starting pitcher after all the money they’ve invested in their rotation, but we still don’t know the seasonlong prognosis for Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki, although Glasnow has at least started a rehab assignment in Triple-A. The one thing we do know is the Dodgers have a system loaded with hitting prospects that might make them the team most capable of making this trade — if they want to do it.

The Blue Jays are currently in the second wild-card spot, despite a scuffling rotation that ranks 26th in ERA. They did just get Max Scherzer back, but there’s no way of knowing what he’ll bring, plus Chris Bassitt and Scherzer will be free agents — so they’ll be looking for pitching help in the offseason anyway. Lugo’s contract is a more attractive option than gambling on a high-level free agent, even if it costs a team some good prospects.


The Guardians were 31-26 at the end of May even though they had been outscored by 18 runs, but June was a rough go, with a 9-16 record and minus-29 run differential, dropping them under .500. Clase is signed through 2028, with his salary topping out at $10 million the final two years, making him a bargain for an elite closer.

Is he still elite, though? He’s allowing a .289 average after batters hit just .154 against him in 2024, and while his location was certainly off a bit in April, he also had a lot of BABIP bad luck. His ground ball rate is significantly down from where it once was (as high as 68% in 2021, down to 45% this season), but he has still surrendered just one home run. The Cleveland bullpen hasn’t been as dominant as last season but it’s still deep, and Cade Smith has been their best reliever, so he’s ready to take over as the closer. Given the potential return for Clase — and hedging against the possibility that he could be on the decline — this might be the best chance for the Guardians to get a big haul for him.


When I flipped on the Phillies-Braves game Saturday, the score was 1-1 in the seventh inning with the bases loaded as Philly’s Jordan Romano pitched to Atlanta’s Sean Murphy. The broadcast flashed a graphic showing the Braves were the only team without a grand slam this season. First pitch: Boom. The Phillies need bullpen help and they need to win now. This has all the markings of a Dave Dombrowski deal.


The Orioles went 16-11 in June and are playing a little better, so there might be some hope … OK, sorry, Orioles fans. You’re still seven games out of the final wild-card spot with playoff odds hovering below 4%. A playoff run is unlikely given their rotation, and with up to 11 impending free agents after this season, if you count the three players on club options, general manager Mike Elias could make a slew of deals to add prospect depth to the organization. It’s not the way the Orioles expected the season to go, but this is the rare case where punting on the year makes sense.

O’Hearn is probably the best of the group. They got O’Hearn from the Royals and milked three excellent seasons out of him as a platoon DH/1B/RF, and with so many teams starving for offense, his ability to hit right-handers (.312/.398/.518) makes him one of the best bats available.


You could find a half-dozen teams where O’Hearn fits, but let’s go with the Giants, who rank last in the majors in OPS at first base, with an average below .200 and just five home runs. They also rank in the bottom third of the majors in OPS versus right-handed pitching, so adding O’Hearn on top of Rafael Devers would give San Francisco a second middle-of-the-order lefty bat. President of baseball operations Buster Posey has already shown his cards with the Devers deal: He’s all-in, so no time to stop now.


The Braves beat the Mets in five out of seven games in June to spark some comeback talk, but they remain eight games under .500, one of five NL teams that are more than five games out of the final wild card. There’s still time, and FanGraphs gives them 23% playoff odds, but the offense actually had its worst month of the season in June. It’s hard to wave the white flag with Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach and Spencer Strider leading the rotation and Ronald Acuna Jr. red-hot since his return, but the Braves will need a huge July in order to be contenders. If they don’t get that, Ozuna is the logical trade candidate, as he heads into free agency and has a .369 OBP (although he had a miserable June with a .550 OPS and just two home runs).


The Padres have used their DH slot to give Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and others an occasional day off from the field, but it hasn’t worked, with the Padres ranking near the bottom of MLB in OPS at DH. Ozuna’s June slump is a concern, but his OBP would be the best on the team and help boost an offense that ranks in the bottom third in the NL in runs per game.


That got very Mets-like in a hurry. The Mets have gone 3-14 since June 13, which includes an embarrassing three-game sweep to the Pirates this past weekend when they were outscored 30-4. It prompted owner Steve Cohen to post, “Tough stretch, no sugarcoating it. I didn’t see it coming.” Didn’t see it coming? These are the Mets! Something always happens.

The Mets should get some of their injured starters back soon, and while the lineup has some soft spots, it doesn’t have any must-need upgrades — center field and catcher are their weakest spots, but Tyrone Taylor is an excellent defender and … well, good luck at catcher. So that leaves the bullpen, which is strong in the ninth inning with Edwin Diaz but a little shaky elsewhere, especially as manager Carlos Mendoza ran Huascar Brazoban into the ground. New York should think big here. Bautista has two more years of team control on a low salary, so Baltimore could get a lot in return — and the Mets happen to be deep in starting pitching prospects, which is exactly what the Orioles need.


Bednar is a two-time All-Star closer who struggled in 2024 (5.77 ERA) and then lost two games and blew a save in his first three outings of 2025, but he has been rolling since then with a 1.95 ERA and — most impressively — a 37.4% strikeout rate as his curveball/splitter combo are once again wipeout pitches. He’s making $5.9 million this year and is under team control for another season, but the Pirates aren’t going anywhere in the standings anytime soon and have a closer-in-waiting in Dennis Santana.


After a mediocre first month, the Rays have been as good as any team in baseball since May 1: 33-21, tied for the third-best record (just one fewer win than the Tigers and two fewer than the Astros) and with the best run differential at plus-61. Only the Dodgers have scored more runs since May 1, and while the Rays are getting a slight offensive boost from Steinbrenner Field, pitching looks like the way to go at the deadline The rotation has been homer-prone — again, related to Steinbrenner Field — but the bullpen has lacked its usual depth and ranks 23rd in win probability added. Adding Bednar — the salary shouldn’t be too steep, even for the Rays — and moving Pete Fairbanks into the setup role works.


Some people dislike going to the dentist or detest boiled eggs or loathe oatmeal raisin cookies. The Rockies? They hate to make trades. And they especially are not fans of trading homegrown players like McMahon. But it’s time. He isn’t having his best season at .219/.321/.392, numbers that look even worse when factoring in Coors Field, but he’s one of the best defensive third basemen in the game and there are some things to like in his metrics, including an 89th percentile walk rate and 83rd percentile bat speed. He’s signed through 2027 at a reasonable $16 million each of the next two seasons, given his high floor as a plus defender with 20-homer output.


The Reds should absolutely be looking to add — and third base has been a black hole all season, with Reds third basemen ranking near the bottom of the majors in OPS. They released Jeimer Candelario, even though he’s under contract for $16 million this year and another $16 million in 2026, but the ongoing roulette spin to see who starts from Santiago Espinal, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Gavin Lux isn’t a solution. The Reds also have a couple of third-base prospects in Sal Stewart and Cam Collier that they could offer in return. It’s just a matter of them absorbing more salary on top of Candelario’s sunken cost.


The Twins are another team that will need a good July to determine their trading fate. However, other than the 13-game winning streak in early May, they haven’t been that good — and they went 9-18 in June as their pitching got absolutely destroyed (worst ERA in the majors). That doesn’t bode well for the second half. Castro is heading to free agency and has value as someone who can play anywhere; he has started games at three infield positions, both outfield corners and played regularly in center field last season. His OPS+ is above average for the third straight season, so he’ll provide some solid offense as well.


OK, this wouldn’t be the most dramatic of moves for the Yankees, and they could certainly be in the mix for Eugenio Suarez. (Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been playing third of late but would slide over to second.) They don’t really have any glaring holes, at least if Marcus Stroman can plug the back of the rotation, but their offense has been gradually sliding: .829 OPS in April, .792 in May, .719 in June. Castro’s versatility is key: He could play third or he could play the outfield. With Trent Grisham and Paul Goldschmidt tailing off from their hot starts, Castro and Cody Bellinger would give manager Aaron Boone all kinds of lineup flexibility if those two continue to struggle.


The Angels are surprisingly — shockingly? — hanging around .500. They’re hitting .229 as a team with an OBP under .300 and they rank in the bottom half of the majors in rotation ERA and bullpen win probability added. In other words, they’re not especially good at anything. Yet here they are, although they’ll have to do it without manager Ron Washington, who is on medical leave the rest of the season. They could go in any direction, but rotation help probably makes the most sense. Baltimore’s Morton is a free agent after this season, and while the 41-year-old looked ready for retirement after an awful first six weeks, he has a 2.90 ERA over his past six starts.


There has been speculation that the Brewers might be willing to trade Freddy Peralta, similar to when they traded Josh Hader in 2022 when they were in the playoff race and Hader had a year-plus left of team control. That move backfired when the Brewers missed the playoffs, the only year they didn’t make it between 2018 and 2024. Trading Peralta might be an ever bigger on-field and PR disaster — and we can’t advocate trading your best pitcher. Instead, we have the Brewers adding. Given their budget, it probably won’t be a big move for a big contract, so Miller and his $1 million salary is the logical help for a bullpen that ranks in the bottom third of the majors in ERA.


Let’s see … since trading Rafael Devers, the Red Sox have gone 6-8. Maybe they won’t be better the rest of the season without him. They could look to add a starting pitcher if they think they’ll remain in contention or go crazy on top of the Devers trade and deal one of their outfielders (Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu) with fellow outfielder Roman Anthony now in the majors. Or maybe they even see what they can get for Alex Bregman, who can opt out of his contract after the season but has said he’s open to extension talks.

The less exciting route: trading Buehler, if anyone wants him. He’s 5-6 with a 6.45 ERA, after going 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA last season with the Dodgers. He did have two good — albeit short — starts in the postseason for L.A., so that’s what a team would be trading for, banking on big-game Buehler delivering some clutch performances. Some team might take the chance, although the Red Sox might have to eat some of his remaining salary.


Since the first day of spring training, Luis Robert Jr.’s name has rightfully been at the top of Chicago’s potential trade list, but it’s probably time to close the door on that option. He has been even worse than last season, hitting .185/.270/.313, and just landed on the injured list with a hamstring strain. His defense metrics remain strong, so a team desperate for a center fielder might take a chance if the hammy heals quickly, but the White Sox won’t want to give him away with his trade value at rock bottom.

The better move is to trade Houser — and the sooner the better, to cash in on his hot run. He’s 3-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 2.2 WAR in seven starts. The 32-year-old is throwing both his curveball and changeup about twice as often as in the past, so maybe there is some real improvement going on, but his strikeout rate remains low at 18.1% and he had a 5.03 ERA in Triple-A with the Rangers before the White Sox picked him up. Most teams need pitching depth and Houser could be a serviceable back-end starter or swingman — and maybe even something better.


The Nationals have several players heading to free agency that they might look to deal, including closer Kyle Finnegan and utility man Amed Rosario, although none will bring back a huge return. Soroka might be the most enticing to other teams. He has been starting for the Nationals and his 4.70 ERA in 11 games doesn’t impress, but he ranks in the 76th percentile in strikeout rate and 79th percentile in walk rate while holding batters to a .210 average. He might be a better fit as a reliever. Last season with the White Sox he fanned 60 in 36 innings out of the bullpen, so you could see a team trading for him and making him a key part of its bullpen.


The A’s don’t really have much to deal, although there will be the prerequisite Mason Miller rumors. Luis Severino was perhaps a possibility, but he has been roughed up in four of his past six starts (.932 OPS in June with 31 runs allowed in 32⅔ innings), so his trade value has plummeted, especially considering his contract has another two years. So that leaves … Urias? He’s a journeyman at this point, one who has been playing second base regularly of late, can play some third and will slug the occasional home run. He fits best as a bench player for a contender.

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