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  • Rachel DoerrieMay 8, 2025, 07:30 AM ET

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      Rachel Doerrie is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.

The IIHF under-18 world championships are done, and the draft lottery is also in the rearview mirror, so it is time for the next big board for the 2025 NHL draft in June.

Unlike the earlier iteration, these rankings are not based solely on model outputs. They more heavily include viewings, insight from scouts and an evaluation of how the play styles and skills will translate to the NHL level.

Quite a few players shot up the draft board because of elevated projections, rarity of package and upside. Some fell down the draft board related to concerns of translatable skills, discrepancy in projections and concerns about having a “B” game.

There is such variance this year, with a consensus top two, along with two more players below them … and then all bets are off. There are a few pathways for teams in the top 10 to choose from: a high-floor, lower-upside player or a unicorn-upside, high-risk player. Each of those is weighted in the rankings, and by no means is this a mock draft.

With all that considered, these are the top 32 players, along with some honorable mentions, for the 2025 NHL draft.

1. Matthew Schaefer
D, Erie Otters (OHL)

The Erie Otters defender is projected to become a true No. 1 cornerstone for years to come. A dynamic presence at both ends of the ice, the 6-2 blueliner skates with ease and uses his agility to shut down opponents in one-on-one situations, while creating offense with excellent rush capabilities.

Across the league, executives and scouts view him as a future elite NHL defenseman and a foundational piece for a championship-caliber roster. With the ability to control play from the blue line, play tough matchups and run a power play, Schaefer has the tools to become a top-10 defender in the league.

2. Michael Misa
C, Saginaw Spirit (OHL)

Misa, granted exceptional status in the OHL, delivered one of the most remarkable goal-scoring seasons in recent memory, netting 62 goals in just 65 games. He confidently projects to be a top-line forward with the potential to consistently exceed a point-per-game pace at the NHL level.

Misa’s offensive instincts are elite. He processes the game at a high level and executes at high speed. He’s NHL ready, and has the potential to become an elite top-line center if his development continues on its current path.

His two-way game took a major step this season and, when paired with his explosive speed and offensive firepower, Misa profiles as a foundational piece around which to build a Stanley Cup contender.

3. James Hagens
C, Boston College Eagles (NCAA)

A skilled center, Hagens projected to be a top-line center or one of the NHL’s best second-line centers. He brings a good work rate with excellent speed and two-way ability that should see him effectively drive play at the NHL level. The professional details of his game, such as supporting the puck, winning battles and defensive anticipation, will ease the transition to the NHL while he finds his offensive gear.

Hagens likely needs another season at Boston College to further develop his decision-making and add a more dynamic offensive gear to become a top-line NHL center. His understanding of spacing and his anticipation ability stand out among his peers. There’s a mix of Clayton Keller and Matty Beniers in him in terms of playmaking skill and two-way ability.

4. Porter Martone
RW, Brampton Steelheads (OHL)

The 6-3 right winger projects as a high-end second-line player with a competitive streak reminiscent of Corey Perry and Tom Wilson. A big, physical forward, Martone is a dual-threat offensive player with ability to score on his own and facilitate. His competitive nature will make him an effective agitator, and he will physically impose himself on opponents. He needs to hone his competitiveness and physicality to increase his effectiveness, and adjust his skating posture to become a more efficient skater.

His unique combination of scoring ability, size and hard skill make him a very attractive prospect. While his most confident projection is a top-six forward, Martone has a legitimate chance to become a top-line winger if his skating improves.

5. Roger McQueen
C, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)

One of the most hotly debated prospects because of injury concerns — he played only 17 games this season — and also his incredible natural abilities.

McQueen is described as “a unicorn” because he’s a 6-5 center who skates with the speed and mobility you’d expect from a smaller player, despite some odd mechanics, which may be a function of adjusting to his size. His projection as an elite top-line center lacks confidence due to lack of playing time. Elite right-handed centers are rare in the NHL, and McQueen’s size and willingness to physically dictate play add significant value. He has professional defensive habits that are translatable to the NHL, as well as unique offensive upside.

He is a textbook case of high risk, high reward. McQueen needs to play against tougher competition, where he will be forced to develop his ability to protect himself and the puck, and create offense against bigger bodies. If developed properly, he could become a two-way force in the NHL.

6. Anton Frondell
C/RW, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)

Frondell is a versatile two-way forward who plays both center and right wing. His flexibility is attractive to teams, although many believe he is most likely to reach his potential as a winger in the NHL. Frondell is coming off one of the most productive seasons by an under-18 player in Allsvenskan history, giving him a confident projection as a first-line NHL forward.

He’s a cerebral player who picks apart defenders in one-on-one situations — and defensive coverage in offensive zone play. The details of Frondell’s game are translatable, including excellent forechecking ability, willingness to attack the middle of the ice and high-end anticipation on both sides of the puck.

Frondell has shown play-driving capabilities against senior-level players in the Allsvenskan, which has translated to the NHL in the past. He’s projected to produce between 75 and 85 points per season. His play style translates well, and has executives excited about his ability to step in the league in the next 18 months. His two-way ability combined with great anticipation and incredible puck skill make him one of the more captivating prospects in the draft.

7. Jackson Smith
D, Tri-City Americans (WHL)

Smith is a big, physical defenseman who is the consensus second best defender in the draft class. As a pure defender, Smith possesses all the qualities of a top-four matchup guy. He defends the rush very well, closes gaps and steers the play in transition. His offense started to develop more toward the end of the season, and he had a strong showing at the IIHF under-18 tournament. Given the importance of transition defense in the matchup role, Smith has a real chance to reach his ceiling projection of a No. 3 matchup defender.

Smith possesses a blend of skating, size and poise. Smith’s development will be about using his excellent mobility to prevent rush offense, becoming a more consistent offensive threat and continuing to develop his decision-making. If Smith can drive play on both sides of the puck in transition, he has a chance to become a No. 2 defender.

8. Victor Eklund
LW, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)

Eklund projects as a top-six forward with a fair chance of becoming a top-line contributor. Despite concerns about his size, Eklund’s play style is very translatable to the NHL. He plays a lot bigger than his measurements suggest, with a high-end motor and excellent forechecking ability. Should he grow, which has happened to other prospects in the past, Eklund’s projection becomes more confident as a 70-point producer.

Eklund excels in transition and attacks defenders with speed and fearlessness, darting to the inside and positioning his body to win or protect pucks. His smaller size has forced him to learn how to protect the puck with excellent body positioning. His off-puck play is very mature and should quickly translate to earned trust from NHL coaches. He has the potential to be a difference-maker in the NHL, and there is every reason to believe his blend of hard-nosed play with soft skill will translate seamlessly to the NHL.

9. Caleb Desnoyers
C, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL)

Desnoyers may go higher than ninth overall because he is one of the best two-way players in the draft. He has been described as a coach’s dream in that he can take an offensive or checking assignment and execute consistently. Desnoyers projects to be a quality second-line center, with a decent chance of becoming a first-line player.

He’s a cerebral player with excellent playmaking ability. It isn’t that he’s flashy and will get you out of your seat, it is that he’s consistently effective and makes intelligent plays with the puck. In other words, he’s reliable. As one scouting director described: “He’s the type of player you win with.” Some have quietly compared him to Patrice Bergeron and Jonathan Toews.

10. Jake O’Brien
C, Brantford Bulldogs (OHL)

O’Brien projects to be a point-producing top-six center with a chance to become a top-line center. The right-hander is one of the best playmakers in the draft, creating high-danger chances with regularity. O’Brien’s elite playmaking skills will be that much more valuable if he can add speed.

O’Brien’s two-way ability has consistently improved this season, through puck support, good defensive tracking and quality stick positioning. He lacks dynamic skating but plays a projectable two-way game. There is risk because he’s slighter than other players available at the center position, but O’Brien should comfortably be a top-six point producer in the NHL.

11. Carter Bear
C/LW, Everett Silvertips (WHL)

Bear is the type of player that a team looking for high-end skill and playmaking covets. He’s versatile and projects as a 65- to 75-point second-line player, with most believing he’ll be a full-time winger. He’s an excellent playmaker with good hands in tight spaces, making him a threat around the net, and one of the best offensive facilitators in the draft.

In addition to his offensive gifts, Bear has professional defensive habits that will translate well. His skating posture needs to be more upright to allow him to develop a more explosive stride to take advantage of his skills. Bear is a good mix of soft and hard skill with reliable defensive traits, and is the perfect second-line player who should thrive in a matchup role.

12. Brady Martin
C/W, Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds (OHL)

Martin has scouts raving about him after an excellent performance at the IIHF under-18 tournament, tallying 11 points in seven games. He’s a workhorse without an off switch, who brings a blend of physicality and hard skill. Martin projects as a middle-six forward capable of scoring 20 goals, with upside as a second-line forward. He’s a Swiss Army Knife-type player who will be most effective on the wing because of his strong wall play.

Most top prospects are invisible if their A game isn’t there, but Martin finds ways to get involved physically, and those traits are translatable. If Martin’s scoring doesn’t translate, he’ll be a valuable member of a third line. The hard-nosed style is rare in today’s NHL, and Martin’s play style is attractive to many scouts who believe he’s the type of complementary player teams need to win in the playoffs.

13. Justin Carbonneau
RW, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL)

Carbonneau possesses a toolbox of attributes that teams covet, including powerful skating and dynamic attacking presence. He projects as a top-six forward with significant variance, and is likely end up as a complementary middle-six player. Carbonneau can drive offense with his playmaking and skating ability, and though he lacks a standout special talent, he plays a well-rounded offensive game that includes playing through contact, good puck skills and a decent shot.

Carbonneau is a player with high upside, and there is inherent risk with his projection. He thrives when given time and space, and his development will come from learning to simplify his offensive attacks, drive to middle ice and play off his teammates. He has tools to become an effective power forward in the NHL with a few years of development.

14. Radim Mrtka
D, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)

A 6-6, right-handed defenseman with good mobility who plays in all situations has scouts very excited. Mrtka confidently projects as a top-four shutdown defenseman because of his excellent stick work, mobility and transition defense. Mrtka should develop into a strong transition defender, a reliable penalty killer and be a steady shorthanded presence.

He lacks the offensive prowess scouts would like to see in a top-pair defenseman, but his skating, size and intelligence give him the tools to develop into a reliable, minute-munching, shutdown defender. His late birthday gives him lots of development runway to refine his offensive playmaking, first passes and general understanding of how to best use his physical gifts.

15. Logan Hensler
D, Wisconsin Badgers (NCAA)

The 6-2 defender projects as a second-pairing defenseman with relative confidence. Hensler is very difficult to beat because he moves well and maintains good gap control. He lacks a dynamic offensive trait, but he has looked good when he activates in the rush. There are offensive flashes of head fakes and using his mobility to beat players that, if developed, would be critical to solidifying him as a two-way defenseman.

Hensler is a longer-term project who likely needs three years before he’s ready to make an impact in the NHL. His decision-making under pressure and ability to execute quality plays with consistency will make or break him as a high-end prospect. There is lots to like about his game, with the mobility and transition defense expected to translate well, but he lacks the high-end upside of other defenders in the draft class.

16. Lynden Lakovic
LW, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)

The 6-4 left winger has translatable scoring ability and excellent speed for his size. He attacks using his big frame to protect the puck and makes plays using good deception. He has the potential to be a dual-threat winger if he can develop his playmaking and decision-making. Lakovic projects to be a middle-six winger with fair confidence because of his scoring ability, speed and size.

Lakovic’s development will come on the physical side and in decision-making. He needs to lean on defenders and force his way to middle ice to take advantage of his quick hands and shot. Lakovic has quality offensive upside that projects confidently as an NHL player, with potential to be a 60-point player.

17. Braeden Cootes
C, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)

A right-handed center, Cootes was a standout performer at the under-18 world championships. He projects to be a middle-six player with value on both sides of the puck. His floor is likely a third-line checking center, similar to Yanni Gourde. Cootes possesses excellent speed that allows him to push the pace and drive play. He anticipates the game at a high level, allowing him to take advantage of his speed at even strength and on the penalty kill.

Cootes has a longer development path and needs to get a little stronger to truly become a quality NHL center. His relentlessness on the puck and strong playmaking qualities make him a desirable asset in this year’s draft. There is a lot to like about his toolbox and, if developed with patience, he could be a solid second-line contributor.

18. Kashawn Aitcheson
D, Barrie Colts (OHL)

There’s a very real chance that Aitcheson goes in the top 10 given the type of game he plays, but his projection as a No. 4/5 defender sees him below other players with higher upside. Aitcheson plays with all kinds of truculence and aggression, while possessing an aura of confidence on and off the puck. He has all the makings of being a complete menace who plays tough minutes and projects as a No. 4 defender.

Scouts see him as a hard-nosed two-way defender with significant bite who can be a momentum shifter with his physical presence.

He needs development time, as his skating and playmaking are very raw, but the competitive attributes and his development curve this season are very promising. Aitcheson’s involvement on offense developed as the season progressed, but he’s likely two or three years away from being ready to step in. When he does, he’s exactly the type of defender every coach and GM would want on their team.

19. Cameron Schmidt
RW, Vancouver Giants (WHL)

While size is not the be-all, end-all, it is exceedingly rare for a player smaller than 5-9 to make the NHL. I fully expect Schmidt to go lower than 19th in the draft, because he is 5-7.

However, every other model input has Schmidt as a top-15 player, with boom-or-bust potential as a second-line winger. He’s got breakneck speed and excellent puck-handling capabilities, making him a dangerous offensive threat.

Scoring 40 goals in the WHL is no easy task. Only three players under 19 eclipsed the mark this season (Schmidt, along with Gavin McKenna and Carter Bear). Schmidt has great offensive instincts and needs to be more efficient with his play selection to translate to the NHL level. He can be a bit of a pest and engage physically, but if he’s going to reach his ceiling, he needs to round out his off-puck play and be more consistently impactful shift to shift.

20. Benjamin Kindel
RW, Calgary Hitmen (WHL)

Kindel had excellent numbers in the WHL, putting up 99 points in 65 games. The right-winger has skill to burn, and terrific hockey sense. Kindel projects as a middle-six player with the most likely outcome being a third-line winger. He doesn’t have blistering speed in top flight, but he is agile and is difficult to pin down because of his water bug style. He needs to refine how he utilizes his skill, because it lacks a dynamic trait. Adding strength will go a long way to improving puck protection and ability to drive to middle ice to create scoring chances.

Defensively, Kindel provides tremendous value. He forechecks and backchecks effectively, plugs lanes and wins his fair share of puck battles. There is real value as a checker and penalty killer that will translate to the NHL level. He consistently competes on pucks and makes life difficult with his pace of play. If his scoring translates, he will likely be a 50-point, two-way player. If it doesn’t, a 40-point, two-way checker that is a plus penalty killer will be a good complementary piece at the NHL level.

21. Cameron Reid
D, Kitchener Rangers (OHL)

A slight defender, Reid is a fast and agile skater, consistently activating in the rush. Reid has upside as a top-four defender if he can develop his offensive traits, specifically his playmaking. His skating allows him to create time and space, evade forecheckers and put defenders in precarious positions. The next step is to use the space and lanes he creates to facilitate offense more effectively.

Defensively, Reid is an excellent rush defender because of his excellent skating ability and good stick work. He guides players to the outside with his stick, and uses his skating to disrupt the rush. In the defensive zone, his stick is timed perfectly to lift opponents’ sticks as the puck arrives, deflect shots out of play and plug passing lanes. The upside is there because of his skating, and the development requires patience to allow him to reach top-four level.

22. Cole Reschny
LW, Victoria Royals (WHL)

Reschny may find himself higher on the board when all is said and done after a standout performance at the under-18 world championships. No player has risen the way Reschny has in the second half of the season, due in large part to his offensive production in the WHL playoffs. Reschny’s projection elevated from a third-line player with a less confident projection to a relatively confident middle-six player.

He’s not as dynamic as his point totals suggest, but his anticipation and reads are among the best in the draft class. He’s not big, but he’s effective when he physically engages and understands how to play through contact. His development will be about adding speed and strength to complement his two-way ability, and to be a Swiss Army Knife-type player in the NHL who can score 50 points.

23. Cullen Potter
LW, Arizona State Sun Devils (NCAA)

Potter had a strong freshman season in the NCAA, particularly when you consider he didn’t turn 18 until halfway through the campaign. He showed consistent growth that culminated in a standout performance at the under-18 world championships. His speed is NHL level, and he’s one of the best skaters in the draft class. He understands how to effectively use his skating ability to pressure players, drive pace of play and create offense. He looks to drive to the middle of the ice, makes plays at top speed and understands when to delay on the rush to allow the play to develop.

Potter is a dynamic skater with flashes of dynamic skill. His off-puck play, both offensively and defensively, improved dramatically this season, which resulted in him becoming a play driver. He has boom-bust potential, but if he hits his ceiling, there is a top-six player there. The projection confidence has steadily improved this season, and with two more NCAA seasons, Potter should be one of the best players at the collegiate level by the time he signs his entry-level NHL contract.

24. Malcolm Spence
LW, Erie Otters (OHL)

Spence falls out of the top half of the first round in large part because other players passed him, but his lack of dynamism combined with non-elite production affected his projection. His relentless work ethic, tenacity and two-way ability give him a high floor as an NHL regular. His lack of play-driving ability and playmaking see his upside as a third-line forward.

He’s not flashy in any sense of the word, but he’s very effective. He’s one of the most defensively sound forwards in the draft, and understands how to forecheck to cause turnovers. His tenacity will translate, and his shot is good enough to be a threat from close range. Coaches love this type of player on their third lines in the playoffs, and Spence should develop into a solid complementary piece in the NHL.

25. Ivan Ryabkin
C, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL)

Ryabkin is a hotly debated prospect and is up and down on draft boards. Depending on who you talk to, feedback ranges from a potential second-line guy to might not make it at all. That explains his variance in model projection. He’s most likely to become a depth NHL player, but there is a fair chance of becoming a middle-six, physical presence who can score 15 to 20 goals.

When he’s on, it is easy to see the upside. He is crafty, identifying passing lanes and firing accurate passes to set up scoring chances. When Ryabkin moves his feet to drive to middle ice and create passing lanes, he is a very effective player. His physicality on both sides of the puck should translate to becoming a good checking-line player, with some creative scoring ability if he can develop puck protection and inside ice-battle skills.

26. Joshua Ravensbergen
G, Prince George Cougars (WHL)

It is rare that a goaltender is a consensus first-rounder, but Ravensbergen is that guy. Teams love his 6-5 frame with long limbs and good flexibility. He’s able to cover significant portions of the net, and his puck tracking allows him to proactively move and aggressively angle. His lateral movement is explosive while maintaining control, preventing over-sliding and overactivity. He is sharp in his crease play, calmly directing pucks and communicating with his defensemen on coverage.

Ravensbergen has issues with layered screens, a common trait for young goaltenders and NHLers. His elite puck tracking allows him to stay one step ahead of the play, preventing erratic movements. This gives him the aura of calmness that scouts discuss, and is something that will serve him well as he strives to become an NHL starter.

27. Blake Fiddler
D, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL)

There is a chance that Fiddler goes higher because he’s a right-handed defender with NHL bloodlines — father Vernon played 877 NHL games — and has an NHL-sized frame at 6-4, 210 pounds. As scouts and executives say, “Those guys don’t grow on trees,” and Fiddler fits the mold.

He’s a strong defender, taking away time and space from opponents and making life difficult in physical battles. He strongly projects as an NHL player with a chance of becoming a No. 4 D-man. Among scouting circles, there is belief he can become a second-pairing defender because he has a long development runway, and his physical play style will translate well.

Fiddler’s decision-making leaves something to be desired, but he’s always activating and can be taught how to be more effective with his reads. His desire to be a difference-maker and his package of plus skating, physical play and size are attractive to teams. He’s a project, and will need three to four years of development to simplify his game and become an effective NHL defender.

28. Jack Murtagh
C/LW, U.S. National Team Development Program

The 6-1, versatile forward is going to provide some value toward the end of the first round. Murtagh projects confidently to be an NHL player, and scouts like his non-flashy, high-motor game. He never cheats for effort, plays a high-pace game and is physically involved. He is most likely to be a third-line forward, which fits his game style of being strong on the puck, winning puck battles and wreaking havoc around the net.

Heading to Boston University will be good for his overall development, offensively in particular. Murtagh has good playmaking ability that lacks creativity or dynamism. He’s a hard-skill player, gritting his way to scoring chances in the hard areas and out-battling opponents. That won’t always work against NHL defenders, meaning developing some creativity and the ability to manipulate defenders will be critical to translating offense and being a well-rounded, two-way forward in the NHL.

29. Sascha Boumedienne
D, Boston University Terriers (NCAA)

Boumedienne played more than half of his freshman NCAA season as a 17-year-old, and was the youngest player in the NCAA this season. His total of 13 points in 40 games is not the type of offense you expect from a potential first-round pick, but against his peers at the under-18s, Boumedienne set a scoring record for most points by a defenseman and was named the tournament’s best defender.

His skating mechanics have improved, leading to more explosive maneuvers and the chance to develop more agile movements for transition play. He’s an offensive horse, facilitating scoring chances by manipulating defenders, moving his feet and creating passing lanes. When he gets his chance, his slap shot packs significant power and should be a weapon in the NHL.

Boumedienne’s defensive transition will need to improve to hit his ceiling of a second-pairing defender. As of now, he can run an effective power play, break pucks out with clean passes and create offense. His agility and ability to defend middle ice will need to develop to match his perimeter defensive ability. He’s got a good stick, and is most disruptive when he engages physically. Improving his anticipation and reads will be critical to reaching his potential.

30. Jack Nesbitt
C, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)

Nesbitt has risen on draft boards in the back half of the season — and with good reason. The 6-4 center brings a physical, defensive force and he confidently projects to be an NHL player. His upside continues to improve with flashes of one-on-one skill and the speed to drive and create in middle ice. There is a top-nine projection with less confidence; Nesbitt could become a checking center with 40-point potential.

His defensive play excites scouts because the scanning, shot-blocking, lane-filling and tracking to force turnovers under pressure will translate to the NHL. Scouts are confident Nesbitt is going to be an effective player in the NHL, and agree he’ll need to show more offensive playmaking ability to provide value on both sides of the puck.

31. William Moore
C, U.S. National Team Development Program

Moore is all over draft boards — from the mid-20s to the third round — because he’s a long-term project, exactly the type of player that teams drafting in the late first like to target. Moore is a cross between a hard-skill and soft-skill player who needs to pick which play style he wants to be. He projects as an NHL player with an outside shot of becoming a middle-six player if he can add to his offensive toolbox.

He has creativity and the skill to execute, manipulating defenders and playing with pace, and picks pucks off the wall with ease. But, he lacks consistency. His compete level and willingness to engage physically show potential as a power forward. He has reliable two-way abilities that will translate well, and will further develop as he stops on pucks, engages physically defensively and adds strength to improve in puck battles and playing through contact.

32. Bill Zonnon
LW, Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (QMJHL)

Zonnon is a raw prospect that some team in the late first round is going to be thrilled to get. He checks all the boxes, with a high-end motor, elite work ethic and playmaking abilities. The big forward is confidently projected to be an NHL player, and has a fair chance of becoming a third-liner. Scouts view him as a high-floor player because of his translatable “intangibles” and long runway to develop the raw skill. He’s already a reliable, 200-foot player and scouts love his no-quit, relentless effort.

If his skating improves, he will become a very effective two-way player, relying on his awareness, playmaking and competitiveness to bring value on both sides of the puck. He’s most likely to be a winger, with excellent wall play and battle skills. He can be a prototypical hard-skill player that teams play on the third line to shut down opponents and rely upon in all situations. He’s likely three years away, and would benefit from NCAA time to develop his skating and offensive abilities.

Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order)

Nathan Behm, LW/RW, Kamloops Blazers (WHL)
Henry Brzustewicz, D, London Knights (OHL)
Milton Gastrin, C/LW, MoDo Hockey (J20 Nationell)
Jakob Ihs-Wozniak, RW, Lulea HF (J20 Nationell)
Jack Ivankovic, G, Brampton Steelheads (OHL)
Benjamin Kevan, F, Des Moines Buccaneers (USHL)
Ryker Lee, F, Madison Capitols (USHL)
Cole McKinney, C, U.S. National Team Development Program
Vaclav Nestrasil, RW, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL)
Shane Vansaghi, RW, Michigan State Spartans (NCAA)

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With Skubal up next, Tigers notch ‘huge’ G1 win

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October 5, 2025

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With Skubal up next, Tigers notch 'huge' G1 win

  • Alden GonzalezOct 5, 2025, 12:30 AM ET

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      ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the L.A. Rams for ESPN from 2016 to 2018 and the L.A. Angels for MLB.com from 2012 to 2016.

SEATTLE — Zach McKinstry came to bat against Seattle Mariners right-hander Carlos Vargas with two outs, the score tied and the winning run on second base in Saturday’s 11th inning. A right-handed hitter, the free-swinging Javier Baez, loomed on deck, a much better matchup for Vargas than the left-handed-hitting McKinstry. The Mariners could have elected to intentionally walk him with first base open.

“We talked about it,” Mariners manager Dan Wilson said. “Obviously, Vargy gets the ball on the ground, and that’s what he does best, righty or lefty and, you know, he got the ball on the ground.”

That grounder bounced four times before finding the outfield grass at T-Mobile Park, hit just hard enough to evade a diving J.P. Crawford, plate Spencer Torkelson and send the Detroit Tigers — marked for dead with their season unraveling in epic fashion near the end of September — to a 3-2, extra-inning victory. After winning two of three in Cleveland to overcome the wild-card round, a Tigers team that has spent the last two weeks on the road has taken a 1-0 lead in the best-of-five American League Division Series.

A.J. Hinch, the fifth-year-manager, called these Tigers the “sum-of-the-parts team,” and it showed once again.

It began with Troy Melton, a rookie right-hander used mostly in relief this season, providing four quality innings. Seven relievers — including Keider Montero, a starting pitcher who was called on for a save — followed by holding the Mariners to one run in seven innings. In between, Kerry Carpenter hit a two-run homer and McKinstry provided the clutch single. Now, with ace Tarik Skubal lined up for Game 2, the Tigers have a chance to take a commanding lead in a series few saw them winning.

“It’s huge,” Carpenter said. “To get a win before the best pitcher in the world pitches is pretty special, and I feel like Skubal is made for these moments.”

The last time Melton took the ball, he recorded one out and was charged with four earned runs in the eighth inning of the second wild-card game on Wednesday. Hinch informed him via text on the plane ride to Seattle on Thursday night that he would start Game 1. He described the decision as a reflection of Melton’s stuff and poise, but really, with Skubal, Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty already used this week, Hinch had few other options.

Melton responded with four innings of one-run ball in what amounted to his fifth major league start all year, allowing only a Julio Rodriguez solo homer.

“It was kind of normal for me,” Melton, 24, said. “My parents were here. I got dinner with them last night, breakfast with them today. It was like the same routine as when I pitched in college. That kind of made it a little bit more normal. Obviously this environment is a little bit different, and it means a little bit more than my college games did, but I tried to make it as normal as possible. Once I got out there, it was just about executing pitches.”

Mariners starter George Kirby didn’t just execute early; he dialed up his fastball, using the adrenaline of a home playoff start to throw his fastball consistently in the upper 90s early on, roughly two ticks faster than his season average. Kirby navigated some trouble but kept the Tigers scoreless through the first four innings while striking out eight.

In the fifth, he allowed a one-out single to Parker Meadows and got Gleyber Torres to ground out, bring up Meadows, the left-handed-hitting outfielder who was 4-for-10 with four home runs lifetime against him. Wilson had lefty Gabe Speier warming up in the bullpen, a move that would have prompted Hinch to pinch-hit with the right-handed-hitting Jahmai Jones. But Wilson decided to let Kirby face Carpenter a third time.

“It’s a tough one,” Wilson said, “and you do the best you can and try to take the information that you have and what you’re seeing. And we thought George continued to throw the ball pretty well there and still had pretty good stuff and a lot left in the tank.”

Kirby just missed inside with an 0-2 sinker. He then went to the sinker for a third straight time, but it traveled middle-up, about chest high, and Carpenter sent it 409 feet to give the Tigers a lead.

“I was seeing him well tonight, especially after that first at-bat,” Carpenter said. “I feel like I got my timing back a little bit. And I just wanted to make sure to get a good pitch to hit that at-bat, because they had a base open, and I didn’t know how they were going to pitch me. And so I felt like I was on time and had a good approach there.”

Rodriguez tied the game with an opposite-field single in the sixth, but the Mariners couldn’t do further damage in a half-inning that saw each of their first three hitters reach. Tyler Holton relieved a struggling Rafael Montero and recorded three quick outs. Tommy Kahnle, Kyle Finnegan and Will Vest followed by allowing one baserunner in four innings, setting up the game-winning sequence in the top of the 11th.

Spencer Torkelson drew a leadoff walk against Vargas, a lanky right-hander who can reach triple-digits. Wenceel Perez and Dillon Dingler struck out, but McKinstry turned on a first-pitch, 99.6-mph sinker near the middle of the zone and came up with a base-hit up the middle, deflating a sold-out crowd that has waited 24 years for the Mariners to win a home playoff game.

In the bottom half, Montero faced the top of the Mariners’ lineup and navigated it without much issue, allowing a two-out single to Rodriguez and then coming back to strike out Josh Naylor to record the first save of his pro career.

It was the realization of a dream.

“When I was in little league, they would use me like that,” Montero, a 25-year-old from Venezuela, said in Spanish, “and I always told my teammates in the minor leagues that my dream was to close out a game.”

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Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 6: Canes clearly No. 1

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October 5, 2025

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Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 6: Canes clearly No. 1

Following his second touchdown of the night, Miami receiver CJ Daniels looked directly into the ESPN camera and sang the FSU war chant.

The U isn’t just back — so is its swagger.

Miami owns the state of Florida, having knocked down South Florida, Florida and Florida State, further cementing its case for the top team in the country. Penn State’s stunning loss at UCLA doesn’t help Oregon. Texas losing in The Swamp doesn’t help Ohio State.

Miami earning its first road win — against an FSU team that beat a now-surging Alabama — helped the Canes further legitimize what could be their first No. 1 ranking in the CFP era. The 13-member selection committee doesn’t release its first ranking until Nov. 4, but this is the latest projection of what the group’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.

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Ranking | Bracket

Projecting the top 12

Why they could be here: The Canes have the best combination of eye test and résumé, with wins against Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida and now Florida State. The Canes earned their first road win of the season, and they did it against their in-state rival, officially claiming the unofficial state title. Miami also entered Week 6 ranked No. 10 in the country in total efficiency and No. 4 in ESPN’s strength of record metric. The Canes are checking all of the boxes for the committee’s No. 1 team, including star power with quarterback Carson Beck and defensive lineman Rueben Bain Jr.

Why they could be lower: Undefeated Ohio State won at Minnesota, but it’s hard to imagine the committee members giving the Buckeyes the nod for the top spot given Miami’s résumé — unless they truly believed Ohio State is more talented.

Need to know: That was likely Miami’s last chance to impress the selection committee against a ranked opponent. It won’t matter if the Canes continue to play like this. Miami can clinch a spot in the playoff if it wins the ACC — which it’s on track to do — but even a runner-up finish should cement a spot.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at SMU. Miami should win this game — it’s the more talented team — but it’s not an easy trip. And it will be the first time all season that Miami leaves its home state.

Why they could be here: The season-opening win against Texas is good — but not great — after Texas lost at Florida on Saturday. The Buckeyes’ place in the pecking order is less about one standout win and more about the steady consistency expected from a national title contender. They’ve won on the road against a decent Washington team that just rallied for a road win at Maryland, and at home against Texas and Minnesota. The committee doesn’t look just for wins against top-25 teams; it also values wins against opponents over .500, and Ohio State now has three Power 4 wins against such teams.

Why they could be higher: Miami hasn’t left its home state yet, and Ohio State entered this week No. 3 in the country in defensive efficiency, No. 12 in offensive efficiency and No. 3 overall — ahead of the Canes in each category.

Need to know: Saturday’s game at Illinois suddenly looks more daunting than the Nov. 1 home game against Penn State. The reality is that Ohio State should win both, but Illinois is coming off back-to-back Big Ten wins against USC and Purdue, whereas the Nittany Lions were stunned at UCLA.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. Sound familiar? Ohio State has lost to its rival four straight times, and the Wolverines are starting to find their identity with freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. Michigan beat Wisconsin on Saturday for its third straight win since losing in Week 2 at Oklahoma.

Why they could be here: The Ducks had a bye week to recover following their double-overtime road win at Penn State, and both teams above them won. Oregon’s win against the Nittany Lions was diminished following Penn State’s loss at winless UCLA, and it was also the Ducks’ first win against an FBS opponent above .500.

Why they could be higher: Oregon has been dominant against the weaker teams and found a way to beat Penn State on the road in a hostile whiteout environment. The committee could be more impressed with Oregon’s cross-country win against two-loss PSU than Ohio State’s home win against Texas now that both have two losses. The Ducks have two road wins compared with Miami’s one.

Need to know: If Oregon doesn’t beat Indiana next week, and it finishes 11-1, it would still be in the playoff, but it might not be in the Big Ten title game. Oregon doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan during the regular season. If Ohio State is undefeated, and Indiana and Oregon are the league’s only other one-loss teams, IU would have the head-to-head tiebreaker (Penn State would have two losses, to Oregon and Ohio State). Because of the change in seeding this year, Oregon can still earn one of the top four seeds and a first-round bye even if it doesn’t win the Big Ten. This year, the top four seeds go to the committee’s top four teams — regardless of if they are conference champs.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Indiana. This might be the last ranked opponent the Ducks face during the regular season following USC’s loss to Illinois last week.

Why they could be here: The Aggies have won three straight games against strong opponents, further proving that the Sept. 13 win at Notre Dame wasn’t an anomaly. Saturday’s win was against a Mississippi State team that has looked much improved from a year ago, and the Sept. 27 home win against Auburn is still against an SEC team above .500. The nonconference road win against the Irish, though, remains one of the best in the country and will continue to separate the Aggies as long as the Irish keep winning, which they did again on Saturday against Boise State.

Why they could be lower: Ole Miss has a case to be ranked above the Aggies because of its impressive performance in the win against LSU and its overall body of work, which includes three SEC wins and a win against Tulane.

Need to know: The Aggies entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which means the average top 25 opponent would have just a 20.1% chance of achieving the same undefeated record against the same opponents.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. This is the middle game in three straight road trips, and although LSU’s offense has been average, its defense will be one of the best the Aggies face this season.

Why they could be here: The Rebels had a bye week but earned their first statement win on Sept. 27 against LSU. They have now won four straight games against respectable opponents, including three SEC teams (LSU, Arkansas and Kentucky). The Sept. 20 win against Tulane will also be valued by the committee, as the Green Wave remain in contention for a playoff spot if they can win the American Conference. Overall, this is one of the stronger résumés of the contenders, but Ole Miss is also passing the eye test as a complete team.

Why they could be lower: Kentucky and Arkansas are a combined 4-6, and Georgia State is 1-4 in the Sun Belt.

Need to know: The Rebels have one of the more winnable remaining SEC schedules among the contenders, with back-to-back trips to Georgia and Oklahoma their biggest looming obstacles. The undefeated Rebels also have something key to impressing the selection committee: two quarterbacks capable of starting. The play of backup quarterbacks is critical to the selection process (it kept undefeated ACC champ Florida State out of the CFP in 2023 but helped Ohio State in during the 2014 season). With Austin Simmons injured, it’s clear backup Trinidad Chambliss is more than capable of leading a team toward an SEC title run.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Georgia. The Rebels also have an Oct. 25 trip to Oklahoma, but it’s unclear if the Sooners will have injured starting quarterback John Mateer back by then (unlikely).

Why they could be here: The Tide beat Vanderbilt and continued to show measurable improvement since a season-opening loss at Florida State. Alabama has now earned back-to-back wins against ranked opponents, including on the road against Georgia. Because Florida State lost to Miami and now has two losses, the Noles’ season-opening win against Alabama will be less of a factor in the committee meeting room. Their records are no longer comparable, which opens the door for the committee members to disregard that tiebreaker in their protocol.

Why they could be higher: Every team ranked ahead of Alabama is undefeated, so if the committee is going to push the Tide ahead of one of them, it would be because it values wins against Georgia and Vandy more than it does some of the contenders above Alabama — which is possible. But FSU losing to Miami on Saturday doesn’t help the Tide’s case. A lot of it would depend on where the committee had Georgia, Vandy and FSU ranked.

Need to know: Heading into Saturday, Alabama had the best chance of any team in the SEC to reach the conference title game (53.4%) and win it (34.5%).

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Missouri. The undefeated Tigers had a bye week to prepare, they’ll have home-field advantage, and they will be the third straight ranked opponent Alabama faces. The Tide at least get Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma at home.

Why they could be here: The undefeated Sooners beat Kent State with backup quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr., who was playing for injured starter John Mateer. Beating a 1-4 Mid-American team isn’t going to earn the Sooners any points with committee members, but the group will respect the play of OU’s backup quarterback and the fact the Sooners still left no doubt they were the better team. Oklahoma’s Week 2 win against Michigan remains one of the better nonconference wins, as the Wolverines beat Wisconsin and have won three straight.

Why they could be higher: The Sooners are undefeated, and Alabama’s loss to Florida State took another hit on Saturday night when the Noles lost to the Canes. The win against Michigan is a nonconference boost Alabama doesn’t have. This will settle itself on the field on Nov. 15 in Tuscaloosa if it doesn’t before then.

Need to know: Six of Oklahoma’s next seven opponents are ranked, and it’s still unclear if Mateer will be cleared to play in time for Saturday’s Red River Rivalry game. The committee’s protocol requires consideration of factors such as injuries to key players. As long as Mateer is out of the lineup, the committee will rank the Sooners based on if they look like a top-12 team with Hawkins in the lineup. OU has some margin for error, and it has plenty of opportunities to compensate for a loss or two.

Toughest remaining game: Take your pick. The Sooners could be facing rival Texas on Saturday without Mateer, but the best team they’ll face right now looks like Ole Miss on Oct. 25. OU will have home-field advantage, but the Rebels might be the most complete and consistent team in the SEC.

Why they could be here: The Bulldogs did what they were expected to do: They beat an unranked Kentucky team that remains winless in SEC play. The Sept. 13 overtime win at Tennessee is the highlight of Georgia’s playoff résumé so far. The close loss to Alabama on Sept. 27 will keep the Dawgs behind the Tide in the ranking because of the head-to-head result as long as the records are comparable, which they still are after Alabama beat Vanderbilt on Saturday. That same tiebreaker will keep Georgia ahead of the Vols.

Why they could be lower: The committee could have the Hoosiers ranked higher because they’re undefeated. Wins against Austin Peay and Marshall also aren’t doing anything to help Georgia’s résumé.

Need to know: ESPN’s FPI projects Georgia will win each of its remaining games. The regular-season finale against rival Georgia Tech could impact seeding because the Yellow Jackets are in position to play for the ACC championship. If Georgia gets a win against the ACC champs or runner-up, Georgia could earn the higher seed at the Jackets’ expense because of the head-to-head result. That could mean the difference between a home game and a first-round bye.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Ole Miss. The Rebels, who had a bye week before hosting Washington State on Oct. 11, should be undefeated heading into Athens.

Why they could be here: The Hoosiers had a bye week before a tricky trip to Oregon, and they’re coming off back-to-back Big Ten wins against Illinois and Iowa. The jaw-dropping performance in the 63-10 beatdown of the Illini is the most impressive win on IU’s résumé, but most of the teams ranked higher have defeated a more elite opponent. The committee members would know, though, that it’s notoriously difficult to win at Iowa.

Why they could be higher: Unlike several teams listed above, Indiana hasn’t lost — and for the most part, it has looked good in the process. The committee would also note that the Hoosiers entered Saturday No. 5 in defensive efficiency and No. 17 in offensive efficiency.

Need to know: Indiana doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan during the regular season, but it has a more difficult path to the playoff with trips to Oregon and Penn State. If the Hoosiers finish 10-2, they will be in a precarious playoff position because of their nonconference schedule (Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State).

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Oregon. The Hoosiers could earn one of the best wins in the country, and the program could reach a new level with an upset on Saturday.

Why they could be here: The undefeated Red Raiders earned a road win against previously undefeated Houston, and they also have a convincing 34-10 road win against Utah. The committee would consider that Texas Tech asserted itself against two respectable conference opponents and did it on the road. The Red Raiders also got starting quarterback Behren Morton back on Saturday from injury. Texas Tech got a boost in the ranking this week at the expense of Penn State, which fell out entirely after its road loss to UCLA.

Why they could be lower: Kent State is 1-4, Oregon State is 0-6 and Arkansas-Pine Bluff is an FCS team. The committee also tracks opponents’ opponents — and Houston doesn’t have any impressive wins. Even though the Vols have one loss, the committee could deem them the better team and give them the edge for beating Syracuse and Mississippi State.

Need to know: Heading into Week 6, Texas Tech had the best chance of reaching the Big 12 title game (52.3%) and the best chance to win it (31.5%), according to ESPN Analytics.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 vs. BYU. With Friday night’s win against West Virginia, BYU remains undefeated, leaving Texas Tech and BYU as the only Big 12 teams still undefeated overall.

Why they could be here: The Vols had a bye week, but the overtime road win at Mississippi State and the season-opening win against Syracuse are keeping them in contention right now. The 45-26 win against the Orange is better than some other contenders’ nonconference wins — and the committee will know it came against a healthy starting quarterback, Steve Angeli. With Angeli out and injured, though, Syracuse has fallen to 3-3. The overtime loss to Georgia is hardly a “bad loss,” but the Vols could use some true statement wins in the second half of the season to move into a safer spot.

Why they could be higher: The committee has ranked one-loss teams ahead of undefeated teams before, and it could simply be a matter of the group believing Tennessee has a better combination of wins and talent.

Need to know: Entering Week 6, ESPN’s FPI projected the Vols will win each of their remaining games except the Oct. 18 trip to Alabama. If that were to hold true, the Vols would have a strong case to return to the playoff at 10-2 but wouldn’t be a lock. What if Notre Dame finishes 10-2? They’d both have good losses, but the Vols might win the résumé battle. Eye test will matter, too.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. The Tide are getting better each week, but they will be coming home from a tough road trip to Mizzou. If Alabama loses that game, it will be under tremendous pressure against the Vols to avoid a third loss. If the Tide win, they will be bringing some major playoff momentum home.

Why they could be here: The committee would also probably consider undefeated Georgia Tech for this spot, but its protocol also asks it to compare common opponents without incentivizing margin of victory. Georgia Tech beat Clemson at home by three points, and LSU beat the Tigers at Clemson by a touchdown. The fact that LSU had to go on the road would give it a slight edge, but the committee would also know that Georgia Tech needed overtime to beat Wake Forest, and the ACC conceded an officiating mistake in that game that would have given the Demon Deacons a critical first down. The missed call allowed Georgia Tech to extend its drive and win in overtime.

Why they could be lower: LSU didn’t look much like a playoff team in its 24-19 loss at Ole Miss on Sept. 27. The offense struggled, and the defense gave up too many big plays. The committee could favor Georgia Tech more because it hasn’t lost and quarterback Haynes King has been one of the toughest in the country.

Need to know: If the playoff were today, LSU would get bumped out of the CFP during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the field.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. LSU is entering a season-defining stretch, with three of its next four games against ranked opponents. The Oct. 18 trip to Vandy won’t be easy, but Bama just wrote the blueprint to beat the Commodores. LSU gets Texas A&M at home.

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Ole Miss
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama
No. 10 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Tennessee/No. 6 Alabama winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Texas Tech/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Indiana/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Miami

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Miami dominance and a UCLA stunner: Recapping a chaotic Week 6

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October 5, 2025

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Miami dominance and a UCLA stunner: Recapping a chaotic Week 6

  • David HaleOct 4, 2025, 11:55 PM ET

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    • College football reporter.
    • Joined ESPN in 2012.
    • Graduate of the University of Delaware.

It might seem hard to believe, but a quarter century ago, there was no more fearsome program in college football than Miami.

Those were strange days. Most people’s phones were tethered to a wall, the internet was strictly for arguing over “Star Trek,” and Bill Belichick was considered a wildly disappointing head coach.

Only one of those things is true today. And yet, for all that has changed over these past decades, for all the misery Miami has endured, Saturday marked an inflection point.

The Canes are back.

Let’s look at the résumé. Miami opened the season with a win over Notre Dame, and the Irish now look like a true contender again, after beating Boise State in emphatic fashion 28-7 on Saturday. Miami dominated USF, one of the Group of 6’s best teams. Miami thumped Florida, which showed signs of life in Week 6 by stunning Texas. And in Tallahassee on Saturday, Miami made a statement in dismantling Florida State 28-19.

And while Miami soared, No. 7 Penn State and No. 9 Texas endured mosaics of laughter and cocktails of tears in Week 6. Oh, sorry, we’re being told that’s actually the Mad Libs description Taylor Swift used for her new album. But it’s still fitting.

Six weeks into the season, it’s probably worth taking a step back and recalibrating, reevaluating and, frankly, regretting so much of what we thought to be true before the 2025 campaign kicked off.

We’ve seen how far preseason assumptions have gotten us. Clemson, Arizona State and Illinois were all supposed to be playoff favorites, only for September to shatter that illusion.

In Week 5, we saw four top-10 teams lose — Florida State, Penn State, LSU and Georgia.

And in Week 6, the grim reaper came for the Nittany Lions (again) and the Longhorns, courtesy of two teams who had yet to win a Power 4 game.

That Florida upended Texas is a surprise, to be sure, but not like realizing the guy from “White Lotus” also played Uncle Rico in “Napoleon Dynamite.” We could, after all, have seen this coming. Billy Napier is college football’s Jason Voorhees — drown, hacked, flambéed and forced to watch all the entire DVD collection of “According to Jim,” and yet he keeps coming back. Napier cannot be felled by conventional weapons. Florida will only be able to fire him after enlisting the help of witch doctors, paranormal psychologists and Auburn boosters. Napier is like “Grey’s Anatomy,” a thing you’re shocked to learn is somehow still going each new college football season.

Napier’s latest revival came in a 29-21 win over Texas in which the Gators’ defense racked up six sacks, picked off Arch Manning twice and held the Longhorns to 52 yards on the ground. The only highlight for Texas was a late-game sack in which Manning’s helmet popped off, and his mop of disheveled hair forced all of America to swoon just long enough to forget Texas was the preseason No. 1 team in the country. Manning and the Horns have been this season’s version of an “Avatar” sequel — a massive endeavor earning millions of dollars based on a legacy franchise, while no one’s quite sure why we’re still supposed to care.

Meanwhile, we might have reached even more desperate times for the preseason No. 2 team. A week after falling to Oregon in overtime, Penn State looked utterly shell-shocked against UCLA. The Nittany Lions fell behind 27-7 at the half, had a chance to get back into the game, then on a crucial fourth-down play, did the football equivalent of splitting your pants while bending over to pick up a nickel.

After the game, James Franklin reeled off a litany of excuses, from travel to injuries to, of course, the hangover from the Oregon game.

“Obviously we didn’t handle last week’s loss well,” Franklin said, and that feels like the obvious answer because it means Franklin actually lost twice to a top-10 Oregon team, more befitting his reputation.

In reality, it was woeful UCLA, 0-4 entering the game, a team that had fired its head coach and had turned to Jerry Neuheisel for offensive playcalling — a man who had never so much as worn the headset on the sideline before and who had tragically lost the finals of the All Valley Karate Tournament to Daniel LaRusso.

That Florida and UCLA — two of the most frustratingly awful teams of the first month of the season — could open October by knocking off the teams ranked first and second to open the season speaks volumes. This season has no prewritten script. There is no favorite, no dominant team, no safe bet for the playoffs.

Except for, maybe, Miami.

The Canes do not have a clear weakness. They have a QB who is playing angry, an offensive and defensive line that are mean, big and powerful, and skill guys who not only make plays but offer the type of swagger that had once been Miami’s calling card.

Are we comfortable unironically pronouncing Miami as the king of the college football world again? Of course not. We remember what it was like for Jacory Harris to toy with our emotions like a cat with a ball of yarn. We remember Al Golden prowling the sideline dressed as an Enterprise Rental Car agent. We remember when Mark Richt came to the cold realization that 15 years of forgetting to run the ball in Athens was still far less exasperating than trying to figure out what to do with N’Kosi Perry.

Miami spent 20 years being feared by everyone in college football.

Anyone who has watched Miami over the past 20 years is still plenty scared of buying the hype this time around.

And yet, here we are, nearly midway through a year in which nothing seems certain, and somehow the biggest surprise of all is that the safest bet in the sport might be the Canes.

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UNC blown out
Trends | Under the radar
Heisman five

Heels down

The dream of recreating the Deion Sanders experience in Chapel Hill took its first major step forward Saturday, when a world-famous rapper finally showed up for a game. Unfortunately, this was because Ludacris was contractually obligated to play the pregame concert, and due to the miserable September unfurled by both of Saturday’s participants, he was forced to (ahem) roll out of bed bright and early for a 9:45 a.m. set. It’s rare for Carolina’s usually staid wine-and-cheese crowd to dig into the Chicken-n-Beer (we know) before lunch, but in fairness, they would’ve otherwise been 2 Furious 2 Fast (seriously, we’re sorry).

This was supposed to be one of the season’s great matchups — Belichick vs. Dabo Swinney, the first college football game between a coach with a Super Bowl ring and one with a natty since Bill Walsh and Joe Paterno faced off in the famed 1993 Blockbuster Bowl, which feels a little like saying The Beatles and The Rolling Stones once got together to play a show at a RadioShack. With North Carolina and Clemson a combined 0-5 against Power 4 competition entering play, Saturday’s matchup might well have been dubbed The Disappointment Bowl.

The game started well enough for UNC, with the Heels down 28-3 after the first quarter. Unfortunately, Belichick wasn’t coaching against the Atlanta Falcons in this one.

If losses to TCU and UCF were embarrassing for UNC, Saturday’s first half was something altogether different — like a septuagenarian posing for a 20-something’s Halloween photos on Instagram.

Clemson scored touchdowns on five of its first six drives, and Cade Klubnik had twice as many TD throws (four) as incompletions (two), before the Tigers called off the dogs, and the surviving members of the 1916 Cumberland team could celebrate, knowing their legacy of a 222-0 loss was safe for another week.

Earlier in the week, Heels GM Michael Lombardi wrote a letter to donors that bordered on a manifesto, suggesting this is all part of Belichick’s rebuilding plan, though it had more of the feel of the guys who started Fyre Festival saying the porta potties would be delivered any minute now. For a team that is already having this much trouble scoring points, moving the goal posts seemed a bad idea, but Lombardi’s analogizing Belichick’s plan for UNC to the Philadelphia 76ers’ famed “process” might be fitting. After all, throughout all of the Sixers losing, management continued to invest in bad personnel, and the end result, a decade later, is still nothing close to a title.

Week 6 vibe shifts

Each week, the biggest games, biggest plays and biggest wins help shape the course of the season. Beneath the surface, however, dozens of smaller shifts can have an even more profound effect. We try to capture those here.

Trending up: Tide revenge games

Alabama‘s resurgence continued in Week 6, as the Tide got a little revenge against Vanderbilt after last year’s shocker in Nashville.

Jam Miller ran for 136 yards and a touchdown, Ty Simpson threw for 340 and two scores, and Alabama rolled to a 30-14 win. The Tide fans, who had spent a full year hearing about last year’s loss to Vandy, were happy to celebrate, much to Diego Pavia‘s chagrin.

On one hand, we have to wonder why the security guard and lead vocalist for Tuscaloosa’s finest ZZ Top cover band (He’s Got Bangs) didn’t intervene. Regardless, it’s a shame to see fans like this yelling at Pavia. They should know it’s not polite to talk that way to their elders.

Trending down: Hiring the hot coach

After the 2022 season, Luke Fickell left Cincinnati, where he had become one of the most respected coaches in the country, for Wisconsin. The Bearcats then turned to Scott Satterfield, who was already on his way out at Louisville, to replace him. This all seemed like getting your Lamborghini stolen and then buying a pickup truck, but we’re not here to talk about Carson Beck right now.

In any case, turns out the truck was a pretty good buy.

Satterfield has the Bearcats at 4-1 after Saturday’s 38-30 win over No. 14 Iowa State, with a ground game that ran for 260 yards and another stellar performance from QB Brendan Sorsby.

play

1:19

Cincinnati snaps Iowa State’s perfect record

Cincinnati jumps out to a big early lead and holds on late to knock off No. 11-ranked Iowa State at home.

Fickell, meanwhile, couldn’t have been a worse fit in Wisconsin if he had been lactose intolerant, as the Badgers fell to Michigan 24-10. Wisconsin has failed to crack 20 points in eight of its past 10 games vs. FBS competition, and Fickell’s explanation that the offensive line just overindulged at Culver’s simply isn’t going to fly with the boosters much longer.

In the wild Big 12, Cincinnati’s win announces the Bearcats as a genuine contender in the conference, thus setting up the fine people of Cincinnati for another round of disappointment that will continue to be dished out by the sports gods until they all admit cinnamon doesn’t belong in chili.

Trending up: Frog retribution

Sonny Dykes and TCU got some long-awaited revenge on Coach Prime and Colorado with a 35-21 win Saturday, their first meeting since the Horned Frogs, fresh off a trip to the national championship game, lost to Deion Sanders in his Buffaloes debut.

Colorado led 14-0, but TCU dominated the second half, scoring twice in the final six minutes, as Josh Hoover threw four touchdown passes.

Under Sanders, Colorado is now 15-16 overall with more retired jerseys (2) than wins over ranked foes (1). On the flip side, Sanders has reasonably argued that if the Jacksonville Jaguars aren’t going to use Travis Hunter more, then Colorado should get to have him back for the rest of the year.

Trending down: Sweater weather in College Park

Stop us if you’ve heard this story before: Maryland was off to a great start. Maryland had a sizable lead over a better team. Maryland blew that lead, then drove off a cliff.

Yes, the calendar has turned to October, which means it’s time for Terps fans to find a stool at Cornerstone and not recognize reality again until basketball season is over.

Maryland, which opened the year 4-0, had a 20-0 lead on Washington midway through the third quarter, but the Huskies scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter and emerged with a 24-20 win.

This was entirely predictable, of course. Since 2013, Maryland is 40-10 (.800) in August and September and 28-70 (.286) after that. While those splits could be confounding to some, we can’t help but think Mike Locksley’s decision to begin using the school’s pumpkin spice helmets each October might be part of the problem.

Trending down: The life of a Boilermaker

Illinois dominated Purdue 43-27 Saturday behind 390 passing yards from Luke Altmyer, and this might seem like something of a trend for the Boilermakers.

Now, it would be easy enough to blame Ms. Swift for this coincidence, but it’s also worth remembering that Purdue is also, like all of America, winless when Creed releases a new album.

Trending up: Navy‘s air game

Navy wasn’t simply satisfied beating Air Force in Week 6. The Midshipmen needed to throw a little salt in the wound by proving which service academy owns the air.

Navy QB Blake Horvath completed 20 of 26 throws for 339 yards and three touchdowns Saturday to go with 130 yards and a score on the ground. According to ESPN Research, Horvath is just the second player in Navy history with 300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards in a game, joining the incredibly appropriately named Brian Broadwater, who did it in 2000 vs. Tulane.

After the game, Horvath humbly congratulated Air Force on a well-played game and wished each of the Falcons the best of luck in their future career flying the Raleigh-to-Newark route for Southwest Airlines.

Trending down: Elite memes

It has been 11 years since Frank Beamer bestowed upon the college football world one of the truly great memes in social media history as he celebrated a missed Wake Forest field goal that sent a 0-0 game to overtime.

On Saturday, the two teams renewed their rivalry, and this time, Virginia Tech managed to score a whopping 23 points despite not even having Wake’s playbook this time.

And yet, it still wasn’t enough for the Hokies, who fell 30-23 as Robbie Ashford led the way for the Deacons with 256 passing yards and a touchdown.

Afterward, interim Virginia Tech coach Phillip Montgomery sat on the bench and shook his head solemnly before finally affirming the outcome, stared down Ashford as Virginia Tech’s Kyron Drones looked on angrily, then retired to his kitchen, which also happened to be on fire, to enjoy a warm cup of coffee.

Trending up: Points for Pitt

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Mason Heintschel airs it out for 18-yard touchdown pass

Mason Heintschel airs it out for 18-yard touchdown pass

The Panthers benched starting QB Eli Holstein after back-to-back losses, turning the reins over to freshman Mason Heintschel, as Pittsburgh-sounding a name as you can get short of “Yinzy FitzCornedbeef.” It proved a stroke of genius.

Heintschel ignited the Pitt offense, which steamrolled Boston College 48-7. The freshman threw for 323 yards, four touchdowns and no picks — the first ACC freshman to hit those marks in their first career start since Deshaun Watson did it in 2014 against UNC.

After the stellar debut, Heintschel further proved his Pittsburgh bona fides by crushing a can of Rolling Rock on his forehead, donated his NIL check to the local pipe fitters union and added french fries to his salad.

Under-the-radar play of the week

Kudos to Colorado Mesa for playing good situational football, eschewing the more traditional nickel or dime defensive coverage schemes in favor of the far less utilized “all the change in your couch cushions” set to stop Colorado School of Mines’ final hook-and-lateral attempt to secure a win.

Mines was in last-gasp mode, with one lateral after another to keep the final play alive, when the entirety of the Mesa sideline spilled onto the field, and a player who hadn’t even been in the game made the final tackle.

Yes, it was a penalty, but that just forced Mines to run the play again, which Mesa snuffed out more easily the second time around.

Under-the-radar game of the week

Western Kentucky moved to 5-1 on the season after narrowly escaping Delaware, 27-24 on Friday. The Hilltoppers were down 7 at the half but battled back thanks to a pick-six and a Nick Minicucci fumble going into the end zone that produced a 14-point swing. WKU led by 3 when the Hens got the ball back at their own 5-yard line with just 54 seconds to play and no timeouts.

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Koron Hayward gets a pick-six for Western Kentucky

Koron Hayward gets a pick-six for Western Kentucky

That’s when Minicucci led the Hens on Delaware’s most heralded drive since Caesar Rodney’s famed midnight ride to vote for the Declaration of Independence. The Hens drove 70 yards on five plays, spiked the ball at the 25 and set up a potential game-tying kick from 42 yards out.

Unfortunately, like Rodney’s slightly less famous midnight ride to return “Weekend at Bernie’s II” before incurring any late fees, this quest was doomed to failure, as UD’s kick sailed wide, and Western Kentucky walked off with the win.

Heisman five

Six weeks into the season, we’re really starting to worry that Arch Manning‘s Heisman campaign isn’t going to come to fruition. In fairness, we also didn’t think we would ever use the term “Senator Paul Finebaum” and yet, here we are.

1 (tie). Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, Oregon QB Dante Moore and Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss

They all had off in Week 6, which, unlike Manning, was fitting since their teams were off, too. Anyway, that’s boring, so let’s make the rest of the list guys who actually played.

2. Alabama QB Ty Simpson

Yes, he lost to Florida State in Week 1. But who remembers Week 1? That was like a month ago! If we all had to continue to be defined by what happened in August, South Carolina would still be a top-15 team, Javen would still be deeply in love in his “Love is Blind” pod and Dabo Swinney would still be selling counterfeit Cade Klubnik jerseys to raise money for his transfer additions .

3. Notre Dame QB CJ Carr

In the past three games, Carr has eight TDs, no picks and has won three straight. Five of his past seven games will be against the ACC. He might throw for 900 touchdowns.

4. Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith

He had seven catches and two touchdowns in a 42-3 win over Minnesota. More importantly, he helped sneak Julian Sayin into an R-rated movie.

5. Cincinnati QB Brendan Sorsby

Is there a more underrated player in the country than Sorsby, who has posted an 87.2 Total QBR, 12 passing TDs and a single pick so far this season as the Bearcats have emerged as Big 12 contenders? Of course, the Bengals have already inquired about the possibility of him foregoing the remainder of the season, donning some Chad Powers makeup and filling in for Joe Burrow, so there’s no saying whether his Heisman campaign will have real legs.

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