It all comes down to this for the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Florida Panthers. Sunday’s game marks the conclusion of a wild roller coaster of a series that included two wins to start for Toronto, then three straight for Florida, followed by a hard-fought win in Game 6 by Toronto that provided one more matchup.

Who moves on to face the Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference finals? Who begins their offseason vacation a bit earlier than they’d hoped?

Read on for a game preview with statistical insights from ESPN Research, a roundtable debate with key players in Game 7 and final score picks, a recap of what went down in Saturday’s game and the three stars of Saturday from Arda Öcal.

Matchup notes

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs
Game 7 | 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT

The Maple Leafs have lost six straight Game 7s and are 12-15 all-time in Game 7s. The Panthers are 3-1 all-time in Game 7s, including a win in last year’s Stanley Cup Final.

Auston Matthews‘ first goal in 11 career postseason games against the Panthers came at an important time, technically serving as the game-winner of Game 6. He became the second Maple Leafs captain in history to score the winning goal in a contest when facing elimination, joining Darryl Sittler in 1976.

Teammate Mitch Marner assisted on Matthews’ goal and is the second player in Toronto franchise history with 50 playoff assists — Doug Gilmour has 60.

Joseph Woll had his first career playoff shutout, becoming the first Leafs goaltender to register a shutout when facing elimination since Curtis Joseph in the 2002 Eastern Conference finals.

Florida’s Brad Marchand will appear in his 13th career Game 7, which will be most among active players. He’s the fifth all-time to hit that benchmark, joining Scott Stevens (13), Patrick Roy (13) and his former Bruins teammates Patrice Bergeron (14) and Zdeno Chara (14).

Sergei Bobrovsky has a 2-0 career record in Game 7s, including last year’s Cup finals win over Edmonton. He is looking to join a group of eight goaltenders who have won their first three Game 7s.

Who is the one key player you’ll be watching?

Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter: Joseph Woll. There are a few reasons here. It starts with the obvious: whether he can replicate what he did in Game 6, or at least carry several elements of that performance over into Game 7. Another reason stems from the conversation around tandem goaltenders, and the need for depth at that position. We’re so used to seeing teams have one primary option in net who’s expected to play every second. But this postseason has shown the value of having at least two — if not three — goalies who can be trusted. Woll getting a Game 7 victory would further emphasize that reality.

Victoria Matiash, NHL analyst: William Nylander. The most productive player for the Leafs this playoff run, Nylander has been scoresheet-silent this past week. After posting six goals and nine assists through nine games against Ottawa and Florida, Toronto’s most dynamic performer all regular season long has posted an egg in three straight.

If one of the coolest cucumbers in the game manages to break loose and rifle one past Bobrovsky, he’ll give his side an excellent chance to clear a hurdle not enjoyed by Leafs fans for many, many years.

Arda Öcal, NHL broadcaster: Auston Matthews. The Leafs captain scored his first career playoff goal against the Panthers in Game 6, which was also his first career goal beyond the first round of the playoffs. We hear it all the time: The superstars need to show up and show out when it matters the most. He got it done in Game 6. Can he do the same on Sunday when it’s winner takes all?

Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter: Mitch Marner. Now that Matthews got the monkey off his back with that critical goal in Game 6, it’s time for Marner to have his own series-defining moment in Game 7. Marner had four points in the Leafs’ first three games against Florida, but he has registered just one assist since then. And after that ill-fated spin-o-rama turnover move Marner pulled in the Game 5 debacle, this is his opportunity for a little redemption on home ice, too.

Marner is, like Matthews, among the most criticized players in the league for poor postseason performances when it matters most. Well, the stakes have never been higher. It’s now or never for Marner to put his mark on this one.

Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter: Brad Marchand. Even in a moment of pure elation — a Game 6 victory on the road, with your two most maligned players combining for the winning goal — the prevailing thought among Maple Leafs fans is whether this is just another mechanism to eventually deliver maximum anguish. Marchand powering the Panthers to a Game 7 victory on Toronto’s home ice would be maximum anguish.

It has to be Marchand who twists the dagger. He has a 4-0 record against Toronto in Game 7s, all with the Boston Bruins, and can become the first player in NHL history to defeat the same opponent in at least five winner-take-all games. Factor in that the Leafs wanted to trade for Marchand before he chose Florida as his deadline destination, and now we’re talking an ironic level of pain. Brad Marchand being the reason that the Panthers win this Game 7 would cement his status as the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ greatest tormentor — perhaps second only to themselves.

The final score will be _____.

Clark: 4-3 Panthers in OT. Think about how this current iteration of the Panthers really started making its mark. It was that Game 7 win against the Boston Bruins back in 2023 that set the stage for the Panthers to become one of the NHL’s preeminent powers.

They have shown a comfort level with playing in Game 7s, which was the case last season when they won the first Stanley Cup in team history. Tapping into that experience in Game 7 could be the difference between a third consecutive Eastern Conference finals appearance or starting their offseason earlier than they would like.

Matiash: 4-2 Maple Leafs. Never mind the Leafs’ depressing losing record in Game 7s with the Core Four in action. Disregard Paul Maurice’s impeccable history in carbon-copy essential winner-take-all contests. Losers are only losers until they win.

If Toronto adheres to Berube’s system, utilizes its advantage in speed, counters Florida’s physicality reasonably enough, and doesn’t commit ridiculous infractions — silly penalties, dumb giveaways — they can finally flip the script on what’s been a tired and gloomy narrative in a town that’s craved better for much too long. If this central crew of bona fide stars truly wants to keep the elite band together for years ahead, this victory is essential. Marner scores the empty-netter to seal it.

Öcal: 3-1 Leafs. Here’s how I see it going: Toronto gets the first goal in the first period from Marner, then weathers the Cats’ onslaught in the second. Marchand scores early for Florida in the third, followed by a John Tavares quick response, then Auston Matthews pots home the empty-netter. The Leafs head to the Eastern Conference finals for the first time since 2002. And then 300,000 people celebrate this second-round victory at Nathan Phillips Square.

Shilton: 3-2 Leafs in OT. If not now … when? Toronto knows exactly what to do in order to shut Florida down. It won’t be easy. Paul Maurice is 5-0 in Game 7s. The Panthers know how to win big games. But the blueprint to beating them is also there for the Leafs to execute.

Joseph Woll was at his best in Game 6. Toronto’s top line got rolling. The Leafs look stout defensively, and there’s a collective effort there that’s been lacking before. This chance to reach a conference finals for the first time since the early 2000s is too good to let slip away and for once, Toronto won’t let it. And that last appearance in 2002 came off a Game 7 win over Ottawa — with a chance to play Carolina. Coincidence? Maybe not!

Wyshynski: 2-1 Panthers. Auston Matthews has been eliminated from the playoffs eight times. Three of the past four eliminations were by one goal, with two of the games going to overtime. This is to say that even when they fall short, these Leafs usually don’t go out with an effort like their Game 5 embarrassment at home.

But they will go out. Florida just has too many guys that have done this before. Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Reinhart have been huge in Game 7s. Sergei Bobrovsky is 2-0 in them. Another team might be rattled by squandering a chance to close out their opponents. Florida squandered it three times in the Stanley Cup Final last season against Connor McDavid — and still pulled it together to win the Cup in Game 7. The Panthers win, the Leafs finish the series valiantly and another offseason of critical decisions begins in Toronto.

Öcal’s three stars from Saturday

Upon hearing of the unexpected death of Winnipeg forward Mark Scheifele‘s father, the Stars’ fan base mobilized online and began a campaign to donate $55 (Scheifele’s jersey number) to charities that the veteran supports. Add that to the list of reasons why hockey fans are the best.

The overtime hero who sends Dallas to the Western Conference finals for the third straight year — a rematch from 2024 against the Edmonton Oilers. Harley became the fourth defenseman in franchise history to score an OT winner in the playoffs, joining John Klingberg (2019), Mattias Norstrom (2008) and Paul Cavallini (1994).

Scheifele had an incredible game, including the opening goal, hours after finding out his father had passed away. It was Scheifele’s first road playoff goal in the past 13 games.

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Mark Scheifele strikes first for Winnipeg

Mark Scheifele scores the opening goal of the game for Winnipeg just a day after his father’s death.

Saturday’s recap

Dallas Stars 2, Winnipeg Jets 1 (OT)
DAL wins 4-2, plays EDM in conference finals

Multiple games of this series ended with multi-goal victories. That was not the case on Saturday, as these two heavyweights played a tight contest that would eventually go to OT. Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele scored the game’s opening goal 5:28 into the second period (the day after his father unexpectedly died), followed by the equalizer by Dallas’ Sam Steel. That’s where the score would remain until the end of regulation. It did not take long in OT for Thomas Harley to send the fans in Dallas into a frenzy and his team into the Western Conference finals for a rematch from last year with the Edmonton Oilers. Full recap.

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Jake Oettinger makes remarkable save to keep score level

Jake Oettinger does his best attempt at acrobatics in the crease, making a lights-out save for the Stars in the third period.