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Poland has begun voting for a new president in an election that will test the government’s strength against any resurgence of right-wing populism.

The ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, has sought to reform Polish democracy after ousting the nationalist Law and Justice party in 2023.

But the government has been hamstrung by President Andrzej Duda, an ally of the previous administration, who holds a veto over legislation.

The presidential election – the first round of which is today (Sunday) – is being billed as a choice between two futures for the EU heavyweight.

If Mr Tusk’s ally wins the presidency it could allow the government to push forward with its agenda, while victory for the Law and Justice party may signify a rise of populism in Poland.

Karol Nawrocki, a candidate for Polish presidential election supported by Poland's main opposition party Law and Justice (PiS), and Civic Coalition presidential candidate, Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, are seen on a screen during the presidential candidates' election debate, in front of the Polish Television headquarters in Warsaw, Poland, May 12, 2025. Kuba Atys/Agencja Wyborcza.pl via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. POLAND OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL
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Nawrocki and Trzaskowski seen during a debate. Pic: Reuters

Who are the frontrunners?

Leading the polls is Rafal Trzaskowski, the 53-year-old mayor of Warsaw who was narrowly defeated by Mr Duda in the 2020 presidential vote.

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Viewed as a progressive, Mr Trzaskowski’s main proposals include increasing defence spending to 5% of GDP, developing Poland’s arms and technology industries and liberalising the country’s abortion laws.

Civic Coalition presidential candidate Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski speaks during an election rally in Krakow, Poland, May 13, 2025. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel
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Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski. Pic: Reuters

With Mr Duda unable to run again (presidents in Poland can only serve two terms) the populist side of Polish politics is represented by Karol Nawrocki.

The 42-year-old conservative historian also supports increasing defence spending to 5% of GDP, but unlike Mr Trzaskowski he opposes some LGBT rights and liberalising abortion.

It’s a busy field in the first round of the elections (if one candidate does not receive 50% of the vote, the top two go through to a runoff vote, as happened in 2020), with a number of other candidates throwing their hats in the ring.

Among them are the far-right Slawomir Mentzen in third place, who is the speaker of Poland’s lower house of Parliament, Szymon Holownia, and three leftwing candidates: Magdalena Biejat, Adrian Zandberg and Joanna Senyszyn.

FILE PHOTO: Karol Nawrocki, a candidate for Polish presidential election supported by Poland's main opposition party Law and Justice (PiS), gestures during his speech at a campaign meeting with supporters in Garwolin, Poland, May 5, 2025. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel/File Photo
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Karol Nawrocki is second in the polls. Pic: Reuters

Ukraine, Russia and Poland’s security

A key issue in the election is how to build Poland’s security in a fast-changing world with Russia waging war on neighbours Ukraine, according to historian and academic Karolina Wigura.

Poland has been one of the staunchest supporters of Ukraine and boasts a powerful military.

Ms Wigura says the conservative Mr Nawrocki has used anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, similar to language used by the previous government.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Tusk shake hands as they meet at the Chancellery of the Prime Minister in Warsaw, Poland.
Pic Reuters
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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Pic: Reuters

Ms Wigura told Sky News: “There is a certain fatigue in Polish society connected with the influx of Ukrainians, which is from the sociological point of view quite natural.

“It happens to every country that welcomes a large group of migrants within a relatively short time.”

But Ukrainians are “extremely well-integrated”, she says.

Ms Wigura doesn’t see much changing in terms of actual policy were Mr Nawrocki to win power. She told Sky News: “I would not expect that the practice of Poland’s security system would significantly change. Different rhetoric, but the same core.”

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The Polish NATO base on the frontline with Russia

Migration

Migration and how to prevent it is another key theme going into the elections, with all candidates, including the progressive Mr Trzaskowski, appearing to adopt more robust messaging in response to opinion polls, Ms Wigura says.

“Almost all the candidates, with very few exceptions, tend to argue that Poland should strongly prevent further migration, maybe from the Middle East, maybe from Ukraine or Belarus in general,” she said.

Mr Tusk, as well, has been more critical in his comments around immigration.

Earlier this year, Poland temporarily suspended the right of migrants arriving in Poland via its border with Belarus to apply for asylum.

“Unfortunately, it’s actually very painful to say that this has been the most racist and antisemitic campaign we have observed in Poland since 1989,” Ms Wigura adds.

Read more:
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Inside missile defence base protecting Europe

Sir Keir Starmer met Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw. Pic: Reuters
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Sir Keir Starmer meets Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw. Pic: Reuters

Abortion

Poland has one of the strictest sets of laws in Europe when it comes to abortion.

“The 2023 elections were largely won by the democratic coalition because of the ban,” Ms Wigura says.

But opinions within the coalition are varied, with so many different viewpoints represented within the government.

It’s one of the issues that divides the two frontrunners, with Mr Trzaskowski in favour of liberalising the law and Mr Nawrocki opposes any rollback of recent laws limiting access to abortion.

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Trump: I won’t send US troops to Ukraine – but might help by air

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Trump: I won't send US troops to Ukraine - but might help by air

Donald Trump has said American troops will not be sent to Ukraine, but the US may provide air support as part of a peace deal with Russia.

A day after his extraordinary White House meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the leaders of Kyiv’s European allies, the US president told Fox News “when it comes to security, [Europeans] are willing to put people on the ground. We’re willing to help them with things, especially, probably, by air”.

Ukraine war – follow the latest developments

Mr Trump did not elaborate, but White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters US air support was “an option and a possibility”.

She said the US president “has definitively stated US boots will not be on the ground in Ukraine, but we can certainly help in the coordination and perhaps provide other means of security guarantees to our European allies”.

Air support could take many forms, including missile defence systems or fighter jets enforcing a no-fly zone – and it’s not clear what role the US would play under any proposed peace deal.

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What security guarantees could work?

Zelenskyy-Putin summit

It comes as planning for a possible Zelenskyy-Putin summit get under way. Talks between the Ukrainian and Russian president are seen by Mr Trump as vital to ending the war.

Sky News understands a meeting could happen before the end of the month, with Geneva, Vienna, Rome, Budapest, and Doha among the venues being considered.

Geneva, Switzerland, is considered the best option, with Rome or the Vatican disliked by the Russians and Budapest, Hungary, not favoured by the Ukrainians.

European allies are understood to want security guarantees to be defined before the meeting.

A NATO-like treaty, guaranteeing Ukraine’s allies would come to its defence in case of any future Russian attack, is being worked on and could be completed by next week.

Like the US, Sky News understands Italy is opposed to putting boots on the ground in Ukraine.

But EU diplomats are confident this is the best chance yet to stop the war, and allies could return to Washington in early September to celebrate any deal being struck.

Read more on Sky News:
‘Don’t trust Russia,’ diplomat warns
Why peace may be further away, not closer
Five key takeaways from White House talks

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Sky’s Mark Stone takes you inside Zelenskyy-Trump 2.0

Trump still has doubts about Putin

Despite the renewed optimism about a peace deal following Monday’s White House summit, Mr Trump has admitted Vladimir Putin might not be sincere about wanting to end the war.

“We’re going to find out about President Putin in the next couple of weeks,” he told Fox News.

He’s previously threatened to put more sanctions on Russia if a peace deal isn’t reached, though previously set deadlines have been and gone.

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Russia launched its biggest air assault on Ukraine in more than a month on Monday night, sending 270 drones and 10 missiles, the Ukrainian air force said.

Ukraine’s European allies in the so-called Coalition of the Willing, an initiative spearheaded by Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, discussed additional sanctions to place on Russia on Tuesday.

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Ukrainian diplomat involved in 90s nuclear deal with Russia warns Trump about ‘very big mistake’ with Putin

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Ukrainian diplomat involved in 90s nuclear deal with Russia warns Trump about 'very big mistake' with Putin

Ukrainians have given a lukewarm reaction to this week’s White House summit.

There is bafflement and unease here after US President Donald Trump switched sides to support his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, dropping calls for a ceasefire and proposing that Ukraine surrender territory.

While allies are talking up the prospects of progress, people here remain unconvinced.

Ukraine war latest – Trump rules out using US troops

Boris Yeltsin (2L) and Bill Clinton (C) sign the 1994 Budapest Memorandum
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Boris Yeltsin (2L) and Bill Clinton (C) sign the 1994 Budapest Memorandum

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What security guarantees could work?

The Trump administration’s contradictory statements on possible security guarantees are causing concern here.

MP Lesia Vasylenko told Sky News it is not at all clear what the allies have in mind.

“Who is going to be there backing Ukraine in case Russia decides to revisit their imperialistic plans and strategies and in case they want to restart this war of aggression?”

For many Ukrainians, there is a troubling sense of deja vu.

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Ukrainian drone strikes Russian fuel train

In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine agreed to give up not land but its nuclear arsenal, inherited from the Soviet Union, in return for security assurances from Russia and other powers.

They know how that ended up to their enormous cost. Putin reneged on Russia’s side of the bargain, with his invasion of Crimea in 2014 and once again with his full-scale attack three and a half years ago.

We met veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko, who helped lead those negotiations in the 90s.

Veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko helped lead the Budapest Memorandum negotiations
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Veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko helped lead the Budapest Memorandum negotiations

He said there is a danger the world makes the same mistake and trusts Vladimir Putin when he says he wants to stop the killing, something Mr Trump said he now believes.

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“It’s not true, it’s not true, Russia never, never, it’s my practices in more than 30 years, Russia never stop their aggression plans to occupy all Ukraine and I think that Mr Trump, if he really believes Mr Putin, it will be a very big mistake, Mr Trump, a very big mistake.”

Before the Alaska summit, allies agreed the best path to peace was forcing Mr Putin to stop his invasion, hitting him where it hurts with severe sanctions on his oil trade.

But Mr Trump has given up calls for a ceasefire and withdrawn threats to impose those tougher sanctions.

Instead, he has led allies down a different and more uncertain path.

Read more on Sky News:
Putin wasn’t there, but influenced summit
Peace further away, not closer
Five takeaways from White House talks

Ukrainians we met on the streets of Kyiv said they would love to believe in progress more than anything, but are not encouraged by what they are hearing.

While the diplomacy moves on in an unclear direction, events on the ground and in the skies above Ukraine are depressingly predictable.

Russia is continuing hundreds of drone attacks every night, and its forces are advancing on the front.

If Vladimir Putin really wants this war to end, he’s showing no sign of it, while Ukrainians fear Donald Trump is taking allies down a blind alley of fruitless diplomacy.

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Putin wasn’t at the White House, but his influence was – the moments which reveal his hold over Trump

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Putin wasn't at the White House, but his influence was - the moments which reveal his hold over Trump

Vladimir Putin wasn’t at the White House but his influence clearly was. At times, it dominated the room.

There were three key moments that revealed the Russian president‘s current hold over Donald Trump.

The first was in the Oval Office. Sitting alongside Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the US president told reporters: “I don’t think you need a ceasefire.”

Ukraine talks latest: Zelenskyy ‘ready to meet’ Putin after Trump summit

Vladimir Putin shaking hands with Donald Trump when they met last week. Pic: Reuters
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Vladimir Putin shaking hands with Donald Trump when they met last week. Pic: Reuters

It was a stunning illustration of Mr Trump’s about-face in his approach to peace. For the past six months, a ceasefire has been his priority, but after meeting Mr Putin in Alaska, suddenly it’s not.

Confirmation that he now views the war through Moscow’s eyes.

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Trump applauds Putin and shares ride in ‘The Beast’ last week

The second was the format itself, with Mr Trump reverting to his favoured ask-what-you-like open-ended Q&A.

In Alaska, Mr Putin wasn’t made to take any questions – most likely, because he didn’t want to. But here, Mr Zelenskyy didn’t have a choice. He was subjected to a barrage of them to see if he’d learnt his lesson from last time.

It was a further demonstration of the special status Mr Trump seems to afford to Mr Putin.

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The third was their phone call. Initially, President Trump said he’d speak to the Kremlin leader after his meeting with European leaders. But it turned out to be during it.

A face-to-face meeting with seven leaders was interrupted for a phone call with one – as if Mr Trump had to check first with Mr Putin, before continuing his discussions.

We still don’t know the full details of the peace proposal that’s being drawn up, but all this strongly suggests that it’s one sketched out by Russia. The White House is providing the paper, but the Kremlin is holding the pen.

Read more:
Four key takeaways from the White House Ukraine summit
Trump has taken peace talks a distance not seen since the war began

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Trump, Zelenskyy and the suit: What happened?

For Moscow, the aim now is to keep Mr Trump on their path to peace, which is settlement first, ceasefire later.

It believes that’s the best way of securing its goals, because it has more leverage so long as the fighting continues.

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But Mr Putin will be wary that Mr Trump is pliable and can easily change his mind, depending on the last person he spoke to.

So to ensure that his sympathies aren’t swayed, and its red lines remain intact, Russia will be straining to keep its voice heard.

On Monday, for example, the Russian foreign ministry was quick to condemn recent comments from the UK government that it would be ready to send troops to help enforce any ceasefire.

It described the idea as “provocative” and “predatory”.

Moscow is trying to drown out European concerns by portraying itself as the party that wants peace the most, and Kyiv (and Europe) as the obstacle.

But while Mr Zelenskyy has agreed to a trilateral meeting, the Kremlin has not. After the phone call between Mr Putin and Mr Trump, it said the leaders discussed “raising the level of representatives” in the talks between Russia and Ukraine. No confirmation to what level.

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