There’s a trick to announcing trade agreements like the one unveiled by the prime minister on Monday: pluck out a big-sounding number and release it to the public with zero context in an effort to make this sound very impressive indeed.
That’s what Donald Trump did last week when he was in Saudi Arabia and it’s what Sir Keir Starmer did on Monday, promising the agreement with the EUshould generate a whopping £9bn in gross domestic product (GDP) for the UK.
Naturally, when you squint a little closer, that figure gets considerably less impressive than it first seems.
After all, by 2040 – the year the government was referring to – £9bn will equate to roughly 0.2 percent of GDP, only a tiny fraction of the negative impact most economists have estimated Brexitwill have on the economy (the OBR puts it at -4 percent).
Image: Sir Keir Starmer and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen at a news conference. Pic: PA
Whether those negative estimates are any more reliable than the one the prime minister came up with on Monday is a debate for another day, but anyway, this is one of those cases where the numbers are perhaps somewhat less meaningful than the politics.
For one thing, even that seemingly small 0.2 percent of GDP is actually bigger than the calculated impact of the India trade deal unveiled earlier this month (and almost certainly bigger than any other trade deal signed since Brexit).
That’s because a small percentage of a big number is still a relatively big number, and Britain trades more with its neighbours than any other country in the world.
Anyway, more consequential than any numbers is the fact that this government has committed to something its predecessors refused to countenance: aligning certain regulations (most notably food standards) with the European Union.
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Previous Conservative governments all shied away from doing so – for fear, they said, of undermining their ability to seek free trade deals with other countries that would insist on greater access to their food markets.
Countries like the US and India.
That Starmer has managed to seal agreements with those two countries while still agreeing to align food standards with the EU is certainly a diplomatic coup. But it carries with it certain profound consequences.
For one thing, it more or less rules out the prospects of Britain ever sealing a proper comprehensive trade deal with the US (as opposed to the rather limited agreements it has actually signed).
It will push Britain over a regulatory Rubicon that was, up until now, seen as politically untenable.
If you are one of those people who believe that, like it or not, Britain is fated to edge gradually closer to Europe, ending up decades hence with what one might describe as a “Swiss-style deal” with Europe, then Monday’s events will have given you no reason to challenge your assumption.
What, after all, is a Swiss-style deal but a constellation of complex bilateral agreements with Europe that fall short of single market or customs union membership, while locking the parties into a sort of uncomfortable regulatory convergence?
No one in government will ever describe it this way, of course.
But while Monday’s agreement doesn’t amount to much in statistical terms, it nonetheless tips Britain down a path towards a Swiss-style arrangement – with all that goes with it.
A hostile environment era deportation policy for criminals is being expanded by the Labour government as it continues its migration crackdown.
The government wants to go further in extraditing foreign offenders before they have a chance to appeal by including more countries in the existing scheme.
Offenders that have a human right appeal rejected will get offshored, and further appeals will then get heard from abroad.
It follows the government announcing on Saturday that it wants to deport criminals as soon as they are sentenced.
The “deport now, appeal later” policy was first introduced when Baroness Theresa May was home secretary in 2014 as part of the Conservative government’s hostile environment policy to try and reduce migration.
It saw hundreds of people returned to a handful of countries like Kenya and Jamaica under Section 94B of the Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002, added in via amendment.
In 2017, a Supreme Court effectively stopped the policy from being used after it was challenged on the grounds that appealing from abroad was not compliant with human rights.
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However, in 2023, then home secretary Suella Braverman announced she was restarting the policy after providing more facilities abroad for people to lodge their appeals.
Now, the current government says it is expanding the partnership from eight countries to 23.
Previously, offenders were being returned to Finland, Nigeria, Estonia, Albania, Belize, Mauritius, Tanzania and Kosovo for remote hearings.
Angola, Australia, Botswana, Brunei, Bulgaria, Canada, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Latvia, Lebanon, Malaysia, Uganda and Zambia are the countries being added – with the government wanting to include more.
Image: Theresa May’s hostile environment policy proved controversial. Pic: PA
The Home Office claims this is the “the government’s latest tool in its comprehensive approach to scaling up our ability to remove foreign criminals”, touting 5,200 removals of foreign offenders since July 2024 – an increase of 14% compared with the year before.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: “Those who commit crimes in our country cannot be allowed to manipulate the system, which is why we are restoring control and sending a clear message that our laws must be respected and will be enforced.”
Foreign Secretary David Lammy said: “We are leading diplomatic efforts to increase the number of countries where foreign criminals can be swiftly returned, and if they want to appeal, they can do so safely from their home country.
“Under this scheme, we’re investing in international partnerships that uphold our security and make our streets safer.”
Both ministers opposed the hostile environment policy when in opposition.
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In 2015, Sir Keir Starmer had questioned whether such a policy was workable – saying in-person appeals were the norm for 200 years and had been a “highly effective way of resolving differences”.
He also raised concerns about the impact on children if parents were deported and then returned after a successful appeal.
In today’s announcement, the prime minister’s administration said it wanted to prevent people from “gaming the system” and clamp down on people staying in the UK for “months or years” while appeals are heard.
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