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Aaron Judge is at it again. A season after running away with AL MVP honors, the New York Yankees superstar is off to the best start of his career, batting .412 and already producing 4.0 WAR a quarter of the way into the 2025 season.

Can Judge keep this up? Will he top his own AL record for home runs? And can anyone keep him from winning a Triple Crown or repeating as unanimous MVP?

We set over/unders based on Judge’s ridiculous pace and asked our MLB experts to predict where his otherworldly season will go from here.


Aaron Judge’s expected batting average is .362. Will his actual BA for the season be over/under that?

Jorge Castillo: Under. One player has batted at least .350 over a full season since 2010: Luis Arraez, whose contact-first approach is so extreme that he has drawn comparisons to Tony Gwynn. Not one player has finished a season .360 or better since Joe Mauer in 2009. In short, it’s just super difficult to sustain such a high average nowadays when hitting is harder than ever.

Judge’s .481 BABIP is significantly higher than his career mark of .344 entering the season, which strongly suggests a regression in this department is coming. Simply winning the batting title would be an extraordinary accomplishment for the 6-foot-7 slugger.

Bradford Doolittle: Under. All told, Judge’s xBA is .340 since he changed his batting stance last season. Month by month, he has topped .362 twice — the current month and last May — post-tweak. He has mostly been over .300 each month but has been as low as .277. So .362 is too high, but .340, a realistic target, is pretty amazing itself.

Jeff Passan: Under. He is currently batting .410 — with a .481 average on balls in play. Judge’s lifetime BABIP is .351. Even if he winds up hitting .400 on balls in play, the sheer volume of strikeouts — he’s punching out in 20.9% of his plate appearances — severely limits anyone’s ability to post an average as high as .360. The highest K rate ever for a hitter over .360 was Andres Galarraga at 14.4% (when he hit .370 for the 1993 Rockies). It’s foolish to doubt that Judge can do anything, but the numbers simply don’t support this being a reality.

David Schoenfield: Under. For all the reasons Jeff outlined. The best chance for Judge to hit .360 would be to draw a lot of walks and thus make each hit count more, but he’s walking less often than last season. Then there’s just the sheer difficulty of hitting that high in this era. Not counting the short season of 2020, the last right-handed batter to hit .360 was Magglio Ordonez at .363 with the Tigers in 2007 — a year in which the AL average was .271, almost 30 points above this year’s average of .242.


Judge’s current OPS+ is 257. Will he finish the year over or under his career high of 225 set last year.

Castillo: Over. Around this time a year ago Judge was just beginning his historic five-month onslaught after a sluggish April, and he still finished with the highest OPS+ since Barry Bonds’ ridiculous 2004 season (263). Offensive production across the majors is down (slightly) from last season so far, making Judge’s sustained excellence even more mind-blowing. And that context is necessary when evaluating his OPS+ prospects. Judge would have to experience a significant dropoff to not eclipse last season’s number.

Doolittle: Over. It’ll be close, but I’ll take the over. His expected stats supported an even higher OPS+ than he finished with in 2024 and those numbers are on target to at least repeat that level. I don’t see the league levels spiking, which matters a lot in the OPS+ calculation. The higher the league level, the more air has to come out of raw OPS figures. I think he’ll land at around 230.

Passan: Over. This is the best version of Judge yet in his illustrious 10-year career. He’s striking out less than ever and continues to hit the ball with his typical velocity and ferocity. And with offense around the sport as weak as it is, a number like OPS+ — which is measured by a player’s numbers compared to league averages — is ripe to be exploited.

Schoenfield: Over. Last year, he had a slow start when he had a .754 OPS in April and still finished with that 225 OPS+. This version of Judge appears slump-proof. Even when he had a stretch in April when he homered just once in 20 games, he managed to hit .425/.528/.546 to keep that OPS high.

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Passan: ‘This is the best version of Aaron Judge that we have ever seen’

Jeff Passan joins the “The Pat McAfee Show” to talk about Aaron Judge’s hot start to the season for the Yankees.


Judge is on pace for 56.5 home runs. Will he go over/under that total?

Castillo: Over. Between cold temperatures and consistent rain, the Yankees have dealt with some miserable weather — home and away — in the early going. It’s only a matter of time until the weather warms up. Judge will take advantage when it does.

Doolittle: Over. He has actually been hitting the ball on the ground much more than usual with his flyballs being reduced. That may be an evolved approach, but I still expect that distribution to level out closer to his career norms — which means more fly balls. Judge’s fly balls tend to leave the ballpark, so I think he’ll get to 60 again.

Passan: Over. Judge has yet to go on one of his home run jags — during a 20-game stretch in April, he hit just one — and when that happens, it’s going to put him in position to make a run at the 62 he hit in 2022.

Schoenfield: Not including June and July of 2023, when he hurt his toe and played just five games, Judge has averaged 10 home runs per month — with half of May still to go. Give him five more home runs in May and 40 from June through September and we get 59. Over.


Judge has already posted 4.0 FanGraphs WAR in 2025. Will he surpass his career high of 11.2 from last season?

Castillo: Over. He’s on pace to smash 11.2. If he stays healthy, he’ll threaten to surpass Bonds’ 11.9-WAR season in 2004 and enter the top 10 of all time in the category.

Doolittle: Over. At Baseball-Reference (not the WAR number cited here), his individual winning percentage, based on wins above average, is .568; last year it was .554, so there’s a buffer there against some regression. Playing exclusively in right should boost Judge’s fielding plus/minus metrics and at least offset any hit he might take in positional value. He just needs to stay healthy and he’ll get to 12 wins, at least.

Passan: Over. This is a tough one because of the whims of single-year defensive and baserunning metrics. Judge last season was considered a below-average defender and slightly below-average baserunner. Thus far this year, he is an average defender and poor baserunner.

The offense is always going to be there. The question is the marginal elements that can earn those differentiating tenths of a WAR. It would be his third season with a WAR of 11 or higher in four years, by the way. The only players ever to do that are Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds.

Schoenfield: He’s on pace for nearly 14 WAR. We just said he seems slump-proof. Over 11.2 WAR.


Judge currently leads the league in all three Triple Crown categories. Will he finish atop the AL in over/under 2.5 of them?

Castillo: Over. See above: If Judge stays healthy, he’ll put together one of the greatest seasons ever and it’ll come with a Triple Crown. Batting average is the tallest challenge and RBI totals always depend on teammates being on base. But he already holds a near-50-point lead on the competition in batting average and the Yankees’ offense is good enough around him for consistent RBI opportunities.

Doolittle: As long as teams don’t start doing ill-advised, peak-Bonds stuff like walking Judge whenever someone is on base, I’ll take the over — even though winning a Triple Crown is an incredibly difficult thing to do. I just think this is where Judge is at this point of his career, which is a place few others have been to in the history of the sport.

Passan: Under. He’ll lead in home runs. The batting average element is scary, though — Judge’s career high to this point is .322 — and RBIs are so lineup-dependent. If Judge finds himself in the 3-hole more often, that element becomes less of a concern, but the combination of two categories not being stone-cold locks makes this a cautiously pessimistic bet. If anyone is going to win the Triple Crown, it’s Judge.

Schoenfield: I’ll go with the Triple Crown. He might not drive in 144 like he did last year with Juan Soto hitting in front of him, but these Yankees are scoring at a higher clip than last year’s Yankees, so he should have enough RBI opportunities.


Judge is a runaway favorite for AL MVP. Will over or under 0.5 ballots have someone other than Judge as the AL winner?

Castillo: Under. And that doesn’t mean there won’t be worthy players in the AL. Bobby Witt Jr., Cal Raleigh and Alex Bregman rank in the top 10 in WAR across the majors. Most years, they’d be among several legitimate early MVP contenders. But Judge has just been that good. He’s levels above his peers. It’s his award to lose.

Doolittle: Under. But if I’m picking a team from scratch, I’m still taking Bobby Witt Jr. and you can’t talk me out of it. Still, if Judge doesn’t get hurt, he’ll be a unanimous pick.

Passan: Under. If Judge stays healthy, he will be a unanimous MVP. He’s that much better than everyone else in the AL — which is saying something considering Witt is in the league, too.

Schoenfield: Under. Even when Shohei Ohtani had an amazing two-way season in 2022, Judge still received 28 of 30 first-place votes. And Ohtani is in the NL now.

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Gretzky celebrates Stars, coy on series vs. Oilers

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Gretzky celebrates Stars, coy on series vs. Oilers

DALLAS — Wayne Gretzky was in the Dallas Stars locker room congratulating them after they advanced to their third consecutive Western Conference final, where they will face the franchise with which “The Great One” was a four-time Stanley Cup champion.

“He said we’re going up against a pretty good team now,” Stars captain Jamie Benn said Tuesday, the day before hosting Game 1 against Edmonton. “And I had to ask him who he was cheering for. It felt right, and he didn’t answer, obviously.”

Benn said it was “pretty cool” that Gretzky visited the Stars after their 2-1 overtime win Saturday night over Winnipeg that set up a West final rematch against the Oilers.

Edmonton won the West final over the Stars in six games last year, then lost to Florida in a seven-game Stanley Cup Final.

“What a great honor to have the greatest player of all time come down after the game and say hello,” Stars coach Pete DeBoer said.

Gretzky told the Stars he had so much fun watching them play, and that they were now going to play “one of the greatest teams ever.”

DeBoer was on the coaching staff for Canada for the team’s 4 Nations Face-Off title earlier this year and during that period got to spend some time with Gretzky.

“Extra special. That’s my era. That’s the guy we all grew up watching,” DeBoer said. “He’s a special guy when you get him 1-on-1 or in a coach’s room or behind the scenes. You can see his passion for the game. He can sit and talk hockey and tell stories all night.”

Gretzky was part of four Stanley Cup titles in a five-season span in the 1980s with Edmonton. He was the NHL career-leading goal scorer with 894 goals until Alex Ovechkin passed him on April 6 but still has the most points (2,857) and assists (1,963).

So when meeting the Stars and DeBoer, did Gretzky say anything that would create headlines in Edmonton, such as saying he was hoping Dallas would win?

“He didn’t. He would never say that and I would never put him in that spot,” DeBoer said. “He was very respectful of our group and the job we’d done to that point. I think we all understand his allegiance to Edmonton and appreciate that, so he never went beyond that.”

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Marner unsure of Leafs’ future; Tavares content

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Marner unsure of Leafs' future; Tavares content

TORONTO — Mitch Marner might have played his final game with the Maple Leafs. Toronto’s top winger will be an unrestricted free agent on July 1 and has dodged speculation all season about when — or if — he would sign an extension with the club. During the Leafs’ season-ending media availability Tuesday following their Game 7 loss to Florida in a second-round Eastern Conference playoff series on Sunday, Marner was asked directly whether he wants to be a Leaf year. He remained noncommittal about staying put.

“I’ve always loved my time here, Ioved being here. I’ve been so grateful,” Marner said. “I haven’t processed anything yet. It’s still so fresh. Losing sucks.”

Marner, 28, has played his entire nine-year career with Toronto after the Leafs drafted him fourth overall in 2015. A native of the Toronto area, Marner has often spoke glowingly of getting to represent his childhood team. He’s done so by emerging as one of the league’s best playmaking forwards, hitting a career-high 102 points in the 2024-25 campaign to sit fifth in NHL scoring. Throughout the year though he and the Leafs didn’t come together on a new deal, and Toronto asked Marner to waive his no-trade clause so it could potentially facilitate a move prior to the March trade deadline. Marner ultimately refused and stayed on to be arguably the Leafs’ regular-season MVP.

But Marner wasn’t the difference-maker Toronto needed in the playoffs when it was being run off by a punishing Panthers team. Toronto held a 2-0 series lead over Florida in the second-round bout before the Panthers rebounded to win the next three, including an embarrassing 6-1 drubbing of the Leafs at home in Game 5. Toronto recovered with a Game 6 victory on the road but was again trounced at home, 6-1, in Game 7 to see its season end on the lowest of notes. Marner had just three assists in the final five games against Florida and was minus-four.

It was another disappointing end for Toronto and for Marner. The Leafs are now 0-6 in Game 7s during Marner’s tenure with the team, and he has notched just two assists in those outings.

Postseason struggles aside, Marner’s consistency as a regular-season performer leaves little doubt he’d have suitors on the open market. Marner’s lack of an answer about staying — or not — in Toronto only made the possibility he pursues that option more likely.

“It’s tough to process at this moment. It’s so fresh,” he said. “It’s 24 hours [from] our season ending. I haven’t thought about anything. I haven’t sat down with my wife. I haven’t talked to her about [the] future, next steps, and that will be in the next couple of weeks we’ll do that. We’ll start figuring stuff out. But I’m forever grateful, especially with this group.”

Marner sounded almost wistful in looking back on his seasons with the Leafs in the wake of another playoff defeat.

“It’s been amazing,” he said. “It’s been ups and downs, obviously. You want to win every year, you really do. You feel the love and the passion in the city, and you’re forever grateful for that. It’s one of the best cities to live in in the world, and I’ve been forever grateful to not just grow up here, but be able to wear this maple leaf and be a part of the history and this team.”

While Marner might be out the door, John Tavares isn’t eager to follow him. The Leafs veteran is also a pending unrestricted free agent, but he’s made clear his desire to be back in Toronto next season. Tavares said Tuesday he had “productive” talks with GM Brad Treliving and coach Craig Berube, and while several factors would play into a new contract, it was a top priority for Tavares to find common ground with the Leafs.

“If you want to make something work, you do everything you can to try to find what works on both sides,” he said. “What’s fair for myself and my family and for the team and the club. I’ve expressed my desire to stay and wanting to make it work.”

Berube made his feelings known, too. He said he doesn’t get into personnel signing decision with Treliving but when it comes to whether he wants to coach Marner and Tavares again?

“100%,” Berube said.

If Sunday’s trampling was Marner’s last time suiting up with the Leafs, he’ll leave behind a legacy that includes being the fastest skaters in franchise history to hit 700 points (in 629 games) and is one of only four Leafs to ever hit the 100-point mark (joining Darryl Sittler, Doug Gilmour and Auston Matthews).

It’s been Matthews beside Marner for much of their collective time in Toronto, which began in the 2016-17 season. The two have been frequent linemates over the nine-year span while forging a personal and professional bond Matthews will cherish regardless of where Marner lands.

“He’s a brother,” Matthews said. “He’s such a good teammate, friend. We’re extremely close. He’s extremely close with a lot of guys on the team, and he’s a big, big part of our team, and has been a big part of our team. Unfortunately, that’s the nature of the business. People come and go. He has the right to make his own decision, but obviously we all love him very much. He’s an amazing person, amazing teammate.”

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Blackhawks’ Nazar leads Team USA rally at worlds

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Blackhawks' Nazar leads Team USA rally at worlds

STOCKHOLM — Chicago Blackhawks center Frank Nazar scored twice to help the United States rally for a 5-2 victory over Czechia and hand the titleholder its first defeat at the ice hockey world championship on Tuesday.

The victory lifted the Americans to second place in Group B in Herning, Denmark. Switzerland won the group, with the Czechs finishing third and Denmark fourth.

Tuesday’s results determined the pairings for the quarterfinals on Thursday: Canada vs. Denmark, the United States vs. Finland, Sweden vs. Czechia and Switzerland vs. Austria.

“I loved our effort and how we played to our identity,” Team USA coach Ryan Warsofsky said. “Give our power play credit too. Overall, great team effort and a good step forward as we continue to build.”

Nazar, 21, who had 12 goals and 26 points with Chicago last season, deflected a shot into the net to tie the game at 2-2 1:35 into the final period on a power play. He scored again on another power play, his sixth tally of the tournament.

Utah Hockey Club center Logan Cooley roofed a shot from close range to make it 4-2 with 6:31 to go and Boston Bruins defenseman Andrew Peeke finished it off with a goal into an empty net.

Josh Doan, also of the Utah Hockey Club, gave the Americans a 1-0 lead 9:25 into the game on a rebound with a backhand between the pads of goaltender Karel Vejmelka, Doan’s teammate in the NHL.

The U.S. dominated the first period, outshooting its opponent 23-8. The Czechs came back in the second, as Bruins superstar David Pastrnak tied the game on a breakaway 41 seconds into the period by beating his Boston teammate, Jeremy Swayman, for his sixth goal at the tournament.

Pastrnak then set up Colorado Avalanche forward Martin Necas in the left circle to one-time a shot that put the Czechs 2-1 up 8:33 into the middle period.

In Stockholm, Canada completed the preliminary stage with a 5-3 victory over Sweden to rebound from Monday’s 2-1 loss to Finland. Canada topped Group A with 19 points, with Sweden one point behind and Finland another two points back.

Travis Sanheim, a defenseman for the Philadelphia Flyers, was in front of the goal to put Canada ahead 18 seconds into the game, the second fastest goal at the tournament. Bruins center Elias Lindholm scored the equalizer 3:29 later with a shorthanded goal on a breakaway with his seventh goal.

Flyers right wing Tyson Foerster beat New Jersey Devils goaltender Jacob Markstrom to restore Canada’s lead and Ryan O’Reilly, a veteran who played for the Nashville Predators last season, made it 3-1 against a team that had only conceded three goals in total in its six previous games at the worlds.

The Swedish team used a 5-on-3 power play to reduce the deficit through left wing Marcus Johansson, who plays for the Minnesota Wild, 3:02 into the middle period, but San Jose Sharks star Macklin Celebrini collected a through pass from Sidney Crosby, the captain of the Pittsburgh Penguins who holds the same title for Team Canada, to restore a two-goal advantage on a breakaway midway through the frame.

Flyers forward Travis Konecny was on his knees when he set up Colorado Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon for the fifth 4:11 into the final period — one of his three assists in the game.

The Swedes pulled Markstrom with 4:12 to go and Calgary Flames defenseman Rasmus Andersson pulled one goal back.

Earlier, Austria reached the playoffs for the first time in 31 years after it defeated Latvia 6-1 and became the fourth and final team to advance to the quarterfinals from Group A. Finland defeated Slovakia 2-1, and Switzerland beat Kazakhstan 4-1, forcing the latter to be relegated after five years in the top division.

Finally, Denmark prevailed 2-1 over Germany after a penalty shootout to become the fourth and final team from Group B to advance.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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