Aaron Judge is at it again. A season after running away with AL MVP honors, the New York Yankees superstar is off to the best start of his career, batting .412 and already producing 4.0 WAR a quarter of the way into the 2025 season.
Can Judge keep this up? Will he top his own AL record for home runs? And can anyone keep him from winning a Triple Crown or repeating as unanimous MVP?
We set over/unders based on Judge’s ridiculous pace and asked our MLB experts to predict where his otherworldly season will go from here.
Aaron Judge’s expected batting average is .362. Will his actual BA for the season be over/under that?
Jorge Castillo: Under. One player has batted at least .350 over a full season since 2010: Luis Arraez, whose contact-first approach is so extreme that he has drawn comparisons to Tony Gwynn. Not one player has finished a season .360 or better since Joe Mauer in 2009. In short, it’s just super difficult to sustain such a high average nowadays when hitting is harder than ever.
Judge’s .481 BABIP is significantly higher than his career mark of .344 entering the season, which strongly suggests a regression in this department is coming. Simply winning the batting title would be an extraordinary accomplishment for the 6-foot-7 slugger.
Bradford Doolittle: Under. All told, Judge’s xBA is .340 since he changed his batting stance last season. Month by month, he has topped .362 twice — the current month and last May — post-tweak. He has mostly been over .300 each month but has been as low as .277. So .362 is too high, but .340, a realistic target, is pretty amazing itself.
Jeff Passan: Under. He is currently batting .410 — with a .481 average on balls in play. Judge’s lifetime BABIP is .351. Even if he winds up hitting .400 on balls in play, the sheer volume of strikeouts — he’s punching out in 20.9% of his plate appearances — severely limits anyone’s ability to post an average as high as .360. The highest K rate ever for a hitter over .360 was Andres Galarraga at 14.4% (when he hit .370 for the 1993 Rockies). It’s foolish to doubt that Judge can do anything, but the numbers simply don’t support this being a reality.
David Schoenfield: Under. For all the reasons Jeff outlined. The best chance for Judge to hit .360 would be to draw a lot of walks and thus make each hit count more, but he’s walking less often than last season. Then there’s just the sheer difficulty of hitting that high in this era. Not counting the short season of 2020, the last right-handed batter to hit .360 was Magglio Ordonez at .363 with the Tigers in 2007 — a year in which the AL average was .271, almost 30 points above this year’s average of .242.
Judge’s current OPS+ is 257. Will he finish the year over or under his career high of 225 set last year.
Castillo: Over. Around this time a year ago Judge was just beginning his historic five-month onslaught after a sluggish April, and he still finished with the highest OPS+ since Barry Bonds’ ridiculous 2004 season (263). Offensive production across the majors is down (slightly) from last season so far, making Judge’s sustained excellence even more mind-blowing. And that context is necessary when evaluating his OPS+ prospects. Judge would have to experience a significant dropoff to not eclipse last season’s number.
Doolittle: Over. It’ll be close, but I’ll take the over. His expected stats supported an even higher OPS+ than he finished with in 2024 and those numbers are on target to at least repeat that level. I don’t see the league levels spiking, which matters a lot in the OPS+ calculation. The higher the league level, the more air has to come out of raw OPS figures. I think he’ll land at around 230.
Passan: Over. This is the best version of Judge yet in his illustrious 10-year career. He’s striking out less than ever and continues to hit the ball with his typical velocity and ferocity. And with offense around the sport as weak as it is, a number like OPS+ — which is measured by a player’s numbers compared to league averages — is ripe to be exploited.
Schoenfield: Over. Last year, he had a slow start when he had a .754 OPS in April and still finished with that 225 OPS+. This version of Judge appears slump-proof. Even when he had a stretch in April when he homered just once in 20 games, he managed to hit .425/.528/.546 to keep that OPS high.
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Passan: ‘This is the best version of Aaron Judge that we have ever seen’
Jeff Passan joins the “The Pat McAfee Show” to talk about Aaron Judge’s hot start to the season for the Yankees.
Judge is on pace for 56.5 home runs. Will he go over/under that total?
Castillo: Over. Between cold temperatures and consistent rain, the Yankees have dealt with some miserable weather — home and away — in the early going. It’s only a matter of time until the weather warms up. Judge will take advantage when it does.
Doolittle: Over. He has actually been hitting the ball on the ground much more than usual with his flyballs being reduced. That may be an evolved approach, but I still expect that distribution to level out closer to his career norms — which means more fly balls. Judge’s fly balls tend to leave the ballpark, so I think he’ll get to 60 again.
Passan: Over. Judge has yet to go on one of his home run jags — during a 20-game stretch in April, he hit just one — and when that happens, it’s going to put him in position to make a run at the 62 he hit in 2022.
Schoenfield: Not including June and July of 2023, when he hurt his toe and played just five games, Judge has averaged 10 home runs per month — with half of May still to go. Give him five more home runs in May and 40 from June through September and we get 59. Over.
Judge has already posted 4.0 FanGraphs WAR in 2025. Will he surpass his career high of 11.2 from last season?
Castillo: Over. He’s on pace to smash 11.2. If he stays healthy, he’ll threaten to surpass Bonds’ 11.9-WAR season in 2004 and enter the top 10 of all time in the category.
Doolittle: Over. At Baseball-Reference (not the WAR number cited here), his individual winning percentage, based on wins above average, is .568; last year it was .554, so there’s a buffer there against some regression. Playing exclusively in right should boost Judge’s fielding plus/minus metrics and at least offset any hit he might take in positional value. He just needs to stay healthy and he’ll get to 12 wins, at least.
Passan: Over. This is a tough one because of the whims of single-year defensive and baserunning metrics. Judge last season was considered a below-average defender and slightly below-average baserunner. Thus far this year, he is an average defender and poor baserunner.
The offense is always going to be there. The question is the marginal elements that can earn those differentiating tenths of a WAR. It would be his third season with a WAR of 11 or higher in four years, by the way. The only players ever to do that are Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds.
Schoenfield: He’s on pace for nearly 14 WAR. We just said he seems slump-proof. Over 11.2 WAR.
Judge currently leads the league in all three Triple Crown categories. Will he finish atop the AL in over/under 2.5 of them?
Castillo: Over. See above: If Judge stays healthy, he’ll put together one of the greatest seasons ever and it’ll come with a Triple Crown. Batting average is the tallest challenge and RBI totals always depend on teammates being on base. But he already holds a near-50-point lead on the competition in batting average and the Yankees’ offense is good enough around him for consistent RBI opportunities.
Doolittle: As long as teams don’t start doing ill-advised, peak-Bonds stuff like walking Judge whenever someone is on base, I’ll take the over — even though winning a Triple Crown is an incredibly difficult thing to do. I just think this is where Judge is at this point of his career, which is a place few others have been to in the history of the sport.
Passan: Under. He’ll lead in home runs. The batting average element is scary, though — Judge’s career high to this point is .322 — and RBIs are so lineup-dependent. If Judge finds himself in the 3-hole more often, that element becomes less of a concern, but the combination of two categories not being stone-cold locks makes this a cautiously pessimistic bet. If anyone is going to win the Triple Crown, it’s Judge.
Schoenfield: I’ll go with the Triple Crown. He might not drive in 144 like he did last year with Juan Soto hitting in front of him, but these Yankees are scoring at a higher clip than last year’s Yankees, so he should have enough RBI opportunities.
Judge is a runaway favorite for AL MVP. Will over or under 0.5 ballots have someone other than Judge as the AL winner?
Castillo: Under. And that doesn’t mean there won’t be worthy players in the AL. Bobby Witt Jr., Cal Raleigh and Alex Bregman rank in the top 10 in WAR across the majors. Most years, they’d be among several legitimate early MVP contenders. But Judge has just been that good. He’s levels above his peers. It’s his award to lose.
Doolittle: Under. But if I’m picking a team from scratch, I’m still taking Bobby Witt Jr. and you can’t talk me out of it. Still, if Judge doesn’t get hurt, he’ll be a unanimous pick.
Passan: Under. If Judge stays healthy, he will be a unanimous MVP. He’s that much better than everyone else in the AL — which is saying something considering Witt is in the league, too.
Schoenfield: Under. Even when Shohei Ohtani had an amazing two-way season in 2022, Judge still received 28 of 30 first-place votes. And Ohtani is in the NL now.
Kristen Shilton is a national NHL reporter for ESPN.
May 20, 2025, 11:10 PM ET
One team had four days to prepare, while the other barely had 48 hours. And yet … the Florida Panthers — after beating the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 7 on Sunday — once again applied an aggressive approach in a 5-2 win against the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals on Tuesday.
Practically every championship team has developed certain characteristics it has relied upon over time. That includes the Panthers. One of the ways they’ve advanced to three consecutive conference finals has been to gain a second-period lead. Taking a 3-1 advantage into the final period of Game 1 led to the Panthers winning their 28th straight playoff game in which they’ve led after two frames.
Exactly how did both teams perform? Who are the players to watch next game, and what are the big questions facing the Hurricanes and Panthers ahead of Game 2 on Thursday?
The way that the Hurricanes owned possession was instrumental in how they beat both the New Jersey Devils and the Washington Capitals in order to reach the conference finals for the second time in the past three seasons. They had that control in Game 1, with Natural Stat Trick’s metrics showing that their shot share was 56%.
But it was moments of lack of control that proved crippling — which was the case when a turnover led to A.J. Greer giving the Panthers a 2-0 lead. The Panthers were also able to execute those quick-passing sequences, which accounted for why they went 2-for-3 on the extra-skater advantage against what was the top penalty kill entering the conference finals, at 93.3%. — Clark
Florida picked up where it left off in Game 7 of its second-round Eastern Conference playoff series against Toronto on Sunday — by dominating another opponent.
The Panthers and Hurricanes exchanged chances early in the first period, but once Carter Verhaeghe had Florida on the board it was in control to the finish.
That’s not to say Carolina didn’t push back. The Hurricanes generated some superb opportunities in the second period, and Panthers netminder Sergei Bobrovsky had to be sharp, which has been his resting state since midway through that second-round clash with Toronto. Bobrovsky delivered another dialed-in performance that outclassed Frederik Andersen — arguably the postseason’s top goalie heading into Tuesday’s game — and backstopped the Panthers to another victory.
Florida got contributions from everywhere, starting with its 5-on-5 play and carrying on to the second power-play unit (which scored after the Panthers had gone 15 minutes without a shot on goal in the third period). Despite that lull, it appears all systems are still go for Florida. — Shilton
Three Stars of Game 1
Bobrovsky made 31 saves for the Game 1 victory, allowing two goals. The Panthers have now outscored their opponents 17-4 in their past three road games — in large part due to Bob. The plus-13 goal differential is tied for third highest over a three-game span on the road in a single postseason.
Greer scored the eventual winner, his second goal in his past four games. For context, he had two goals in his final 45 regular-season games this season.
Ekblad scored his seventh career playoff goal, which moves him into a tie with Gustav Forsling for second most by a defenseman in franchise history; Brandon Montour had 11 during his time with the Cats. — Arda Öcal
Players to watch in Game 2
Chatfield was unable to go in Game 1, which meant the Hurricanes would be without one of their top-four defensemen, who is averaging more than 20 minutes per game this postseason. That led to Scott Morrow making his playoff debut.
It proved to be a bit of a difficult outing for the 22-year-old, who spent the majority of this season playing for the Hurricanes’ AHL affiliate. Morrow was on the ice for three of the Panthers’ goals, while his delay-of-game penalty — for playing the puck over the glass — led to Sam Bennett‘s power-play goal that pushed the lead to 4-1 with 13:52 remaining.
Morrow would log a little more than 12 minutes in ice time, which was the least by a Hurricanes defenseman by more than four minutes. Chatfield’s return ahead of Game 2 would bring one of Carolina’s more venerable figures this season back into the mix. But if he misses Game 2? That would force Canes coach Rod Brind’Amour to examine his options. — Clark
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Panthers in complete control after Sam Bennett’s power-play goal
Sam Bennett’s power-play tally fuels the Panthers to a three-goal lead over the Hurricanes in Game 1.
There was one fight in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals and, surprising no one, it featured Marchand. The Panthers forward took issue with Carolina defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere appearing to shoot a puck at him, and dropped the gloves.
Marchand received a four-minute penalty and 10-minute misconduct for the interaction, which saw him herded out for the remainder of the third period. Marchand will be back and ready to rumble in Game 2. He was a noticeable presence in Game 1 prior to the tilt with Gostisbehere, putting the screen on Andersen that set up Sam Bennett‘s power-play goal to essentially ice the Panthers’ victory.
Will Marchand carry a sour taste into Game 2 after Gostisbehere didn’t engage much after the apparent puck shot incident? If any player has made a career out of getting under an opponent’s skin, it’s Marchand. He’s already setting a tone early for how the Panthers want to rattle their latest foe. — Shilton
Big questions for Game 2
How do the Canes respond to their worst defeat in more than a month?
The last time the Canes lost by more than three goals was April 13, a 4-1 loss to the Maple Leafs. Since then? They’ve not had many defeats at all, and the two they had this postseason were close. The first was an overtime loss to the Devils in Game 3 — a series that they would win in five games — while their lone defeat to the Capitals was in Game 2, which became a two-goal loss only when Tom Wilson scored an empty-netter.
This postseason has seen the Hurricanes recover from defeats in which the margins were tight. How do they go about finding the cohesion that eluded them in what was a three-goal loss to open the conference finals? And will it be enough to even the series at 1-1 — or will they head to South Florida in 2-0 series hole? — Clark
Are the Cats headed for a crash?
The Panthers are riding on some degree of adrenaline at this point after traveling from Florida to Toronto and then directly to Raleigh after their Game 7 victory. While they didn’t exactly look fatigued in Game 1 against Carolina, it’s still fair to wonder if all those miles are going to catch up to the Panthers with another quick turnaround heading into Game 2.
The Hurricanes know what to expect now — if they didn’t before — and will be ready to make adjustments. And if they were perhaps too rested from having been off for several days prior to Florida rolling in, the Hurricanes have no excuse to not be better on home ice by the time Game 2 comes around.
Carolina showed early in the third period that it’s a better team than the scoreboard’s final tally. The Hurricanes have their legs under them now. Whether that spells trouble for Florida? We find out on Thursday. — Shilton
Chatfield missed Game 5 against the Washington Capitals in the previous round with an undisclosed injury. He skated on Tuesday in Raleigh ahead of Game 1 but was eventually ruled out.
With Chatfield out, Morrow got the call. He’s in his second NHL season, having played two games in 2023-24 and 14 this season, with six points and 15:48 in average ice time. Morrow has been considered one of the best defensive prospects in the Hurricanes’ system since they selected him 40th in the 2021 NHL draft. He spent three seasons with UMass before turning pro in 2024.
Morrow, who had 39 points in 52 games for the AHL Chicago Wolves this season, was eased into the action against the formidable Panthers. He finished with 15 shifts, covering 12:18 of ice time. He had three shots on net but finished with a minus-3 rating.
Morrow is a right-handed defenseman like Chatfield, while Alexander Nikishin shoots left-handed. Coach Rod Brind’Amour said that was going to be a factor in his decision.
“He’s been around a little longer, knows our system a little better than I think Nicky does,” Brind’Amour said of Morrow before the loss. “He played well when he came up. I think he’s earned the right to have a shot, so we’ll see.”
This series is a rematch of the 2023 conference finals that saw the Panthers eliminate Carolina in four games. Game 1 of that series, also held in Raleigh, was a four-overtime classic that ended with a Matthew Tkachuk goal just 13 seconds before it would’ve gone to a fifth extra session. Though the score was much different Tuesday night, the 1-0 series deficit is the same for Carolina headed into Thursday’s Game 2.
RALEIGH, N.C. — Before Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals, no team had scored more than four goals against the Carolina Hurricanes in the 2025 postseason. No team had scored more than once against their league-best penalty kill. Most importantly, no team had beaten them at home in front of their raucous “Caniacs.”
That is, until the Florida Panthers came to town Tuesday night. Florida humbled Carolina 5-2 to take a 1-0 series lead — 48 hours after eliminating the Toronto Maple Leafs in a Game 7 on the road.
“There’s a lot of emotion in a Game 7. To be ready to compete as hard as you can, knowing that [Carolina] had a few days rest and they’re playing in front of their fans? It was a huge win. Huge win and really happy,” said Panthers forward A.J. Greer, who scored the Panthers’ third goal.
After a physical opening to the game that saw the teams trade 11 hits before a second shot on goal was registered, Carter Verhaeghe broke through on the power play for the 1-0 lead for Florida.
“We wanted to be ready for this game. We know how hard they play here in this building especially, so we wanted to be ready for this game and I think obviously we got rewarded there early,” Florida captain Aleksander Barkov said.
Carolina’s Sebastian Aho was in the penalty box for a retaliatory penalty against the Panthers’ Anton Lundell, who had cross-checked him. The Hurricanes’ penalty kill had stopped 14 of 15 power plays at home and 28 of 30 overall in the playoffs until that Florida goal.
Verhaeghe said the Panthers wanted to start this series strong after dropping the first two games to Toronto in the second round.
“It’s a tough building to play in. This gives us a lot of confidence that we can get a win here. We had a tough start to the last series going down 0-2. That’s one thing we wanted to do this series — at least win the first one,” he said.
Florida’s second goal was indicative of the kind of night it was going to be for Carolina. Forward Logan Stankoven missed a point-blank chance on Florida goalie Sergei Bobrovsky. At the other end, a great Panthers forecheck led by Evan Rodrigues forced a rare turnover from Carolina center Jordan Staal, setting up a chance for Aaron Ekblad to make it 2-0.
All night, the Panthers responded any time it seemed the Hurricanes could grab momentum. Aho scored late in the first period on a goal that was reviewed for a possible kicking motion — Florida coach Paul Maurice said there wasn’t enough on the ice to disallow the goal nor enough on the replay to have the refs overturn it — but the Panthers answered with Greer’s goal at 3:33 of the second period.
“We know what to do. We know the recipe. When everyone’s going and there’s a commitment to play a solid Panthers hockey game … it’s not easy, but it makes it hard for them,” Greer said.
From there, the Panthers added goals from Sam Bennett on a power play and Eetu Luostarinen at even strength in the third. “They got the two power-play goals. That was the difference in the game. We’ve got to kill those,” Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour said.
Jackson Blake‘s late power-play goal was all Carolina could muster against Bobrovsky and the Panthers.
Maurice said his team handled the significant shift in style well from Toronto to Carolina in Game 1.
“I didn’t love our game tonight, but I understood it. Game 1 is that first look at what your game looks like against a completely different opponent. So we will have to continue to build that game and get better,” he said. “I thought they had good chances that they didn’t finish on. Sergei [Bobrovsky] was very strong.”
Bobrovsky made 31 saves, outplaying counterpart Frederik Andersen (five goals on 20 shots), who had been one of the playoffs’ top goaltenders entering the series. The Hurricanes crashed his net looking for chances, including one sequence in which Andrei Svechnikov‘s hip collided with Bobrovsky’s head.
“It’s OK. It’s the playoffs. They try to get under the skin. I just focus on my things and try not to think about that,” Bobrovsky said.
As expected, emotions did run high at times and forward Brad Marchand was in the thick of it. He earned four minutes for roughing and a 10-minute misconduct after a sequence in which Carolina defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere shot the puck at Marchand following a hit he felt crossed the line. The two then had something close to a fight, although Gostisbehere’s gloves didn’t come off.
“Just heated. I was pretty pissed off. He tried to take a run at me. I shot the puck at him. We had a little [tussle],” Gostisbehere said.