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Aaron Judge is at it again. A season after running away with AL MVP honors, the New York Yankees superstar is off to the best start of his career, batting .412 and already producing 4.0 WAR a quarter of the way into the 2025 season.

Can Judge keep this up? Will he top his own AL record for home runs? And can anyone keep him from winning a Triple Crown or repeating as unanimous MVP?

We set over/unders based on Judge’s ridiculous pace and asked our MLB experts to predict where his otherworldly season will go from here.


Aaron Judge’s expected batting average is .362. Will his actual BA for the season be over/under that?

Jorge Castillo: Under. One player has batted at least .350 over a full season since 2010: Luis Arraez, whose contact-first approach is so extreme that he has drawn comparisons to Tony Gwynn. Not one player has finished a season .360 or better since Joe Mauer in 2009. In short, it’s just super difficult to sustain such a high average nowadays when hitting is harder than ever.

Judge’s .481 BABIP is significantly higher than his career mark of .344 entering the season, which strongly suggests a regression in this department is coming. Simply winning the batting title would be an extraordinary accomplishment for the 6-foot-7 slugger.

Bradford Doolittle: Under. All told, Judge’s xBA is .340 since he changed his batting stance last season. Month by month, he has topped .362 twice — the current month and last May — post-tweak. He has mostly been over .300 each month but has been as low as .277. So .362 is too high, but .340, a realistic target, is pretty amazing itself.

Jeff Passan: Under. He is currently batting .410 — with a .481 average on balls in play. Judge’s lifetime BABIP is .351. Even if he winds up hitting .400 on balls in play, the sheer volume of strikeouts — he’s punching out in 20.9% of his plate appearances — severely limits anyone’s ability to post an average as high as .360. The highest K rate ever for a hitter over .360 was Andres Galarraga at 14.4% (when he hit .370 for the 1993 Rockies). It’s foolish to doubt that Judge can do anything, but the numbers simply don’t support this being a reality.

David Schoenfield: Under. For all the reasons Jeff outlined. The best chance for Judge to hit .360 would be to draw a lot of walks and thus make each hit count more, but he’s walking less often than last season. Then there’s just the sheer difficulty of hitting that high in this era. Not counting the short season of 2020, the last right-handed batter to hit .360 was Magglio Ordonez at .363 with the Tigers in 2007 — a year in which the AL average was .271, almost 30 points above this year’s average of .242.


Judge’s current OPS+ is 257. Will he finish the year over or under his career high of 225 set last year.

Castillo: Over. Around this time a year ago Judge was just beginning his historic five-month onslaught after a sluggish April, and he still finished with the highest OPS+ since Barry Bonds’ ridiculous 2004 season (263). Offensive production across the majors is down (slightly) from last season so far, making Judge’s sustained excellence even more mind-blowing. And that context is necessary when evaluating his OPS+ prospects. Judge would have to experience a significant dropoff to not eclipse last season’s number.

Doolittle: Over. It’ll be close, but I’ll take the over. His expected stats supported an even higher OPS+ than he finished with in 2024 and those numbers are on target to at least repeat that level. I don’t see the league levels spiking, which matters a lot in the OPS+ calculation. The higher the league level, the more air has to come out of raw OPS figures. I think he’ll land at around 230.

Passan: Over. This is the best version of Judge yet in his illustrious 10-year career. He’s striking out less than ever and continues to hit the ball with his typical velocity and ferocity. And with offense around the sport as weak as it is, a number like OPS+ — which is measured by a player’s numbers compared to league averages — is ripe to be exploited.

Schoenfield: Over. Last year, he had a slow start when he had a .754 OPS in April and still finished with that 225 OPS+. This version of Judge appears slump-proof. Even when he had a stretch in April when he homered just once in 20 games, he managed to hit .425/.528/.546 to keep that OPS high.

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Passan: ‘This is the best version of Aaron Judge that we have ever seen’

Jeff Passan joins the “The Pat McAfee Show” to talk about Aaron Judge’s hot start to the season for the Yankees.


Judge is on pace for 56.5 home runs. Will he go over/under that total?

Castillo: Over. Between cold temperatures and consistent rain, the Yankees have dealt with some miserable weather — home and away — in the early going. It’s only a matter of time until the weather warms up. Judge will take advantage when it does.

Doolittle: Over. He has actually been hitting the ball on the ground much more than usual with his flyballs being reduced. That may be an evolved approach, but I still expect that distribution to level out closer to his career norms — which means more fly balls. Judge’s fly balls tend to leave the ballpark, so I think he’ll get to 60 again.

Passan: Over. Judge has yet to go on one of his home run jags — during a 20-game stretch in April, he hit just one — and when that happens, it’s going to put him in position to make a run at the 62 he hit in 2022.

Schoenfield: Not including June and July of 2023, when he hurt his toe and played just five games, Judge has averaged 10 home runs per month — with half of May still to go. Give him five more home runs in May and 40 from June through September and we get 59. Over.


Judge has already posted 4.0 FanGraphs WAR in 2025. Will he surpass his career high of 11.2 from last season?

Castillo: Over. He’s on pace to smash 11.2. If he stays healthy, he’ll threaten to surpass Bonds’ 11.9-WAR season in 2004 and enter the top 10 of all time in the category.

Doolittle: Over. At Baseball-Reference (not the WAR number cited here), his individual winning percentage, based on wins above average, is .568; last year it was .554, so there’s a buffer there against some regression. Playing exclusively in right should boost Judge’s fielding plus/minus metrics and at least offset any hit he might take in positional value. He just needs to stay healthy and he’ll get to 12 wins, at least.

Passan: Over. This is a tough one because of the whims of single-year defensive and baserunning metrics. Judge last season was considered a below-average defender and slightly below-average baserunner. Thus far this year, he is an average defender and poor baserunner.

The offense is always going to be there. The question is the marginal elements that can earn those differentiating tenths of a WAR. It would be his third season with a WAR of 11 or higher in four years, by the way. The only players ever to do that are Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds.

Schoenfield: He’s on pace for nearly 14 WAR. We just said he seems slump-proof. Over 11.2 WAR.


Judge currently leads the league in all three Triple Crown categories. Will he finish atop the AL in over/under 2.5 of them?

Castillo: Over. See above: If Judge stays healthy, he’ll put together one of the greatest seasons ever and it’ll come with a Triple Crown. Batting average is the tallest challenge and RBI totals always depend on teammates being on base. But he already holds a near-50-point lead on the competition in batting average and the Yankees’ offense is good enough around him for consistent RBI opportunities.

Doolittle: As long as teams don’t start doing ill-advised, peak-Bonds stuff like walking Judge whenever someone is on base, I’ll take the over — even though winning a Triple Crown is an incredibly difficult thing to do. I just think this is where Judge is at this point of his career, which is a place few others have been to in the history of the sport.

Passan: Under. He’ll lead in home runs. The batting average element is scary, though — Judge’s career high to this point is .322 — and RBIs are so lineup-dependent. If Judge finds himself in the 3-hole more often, that element becomes less of a concern, but the combination of two categories not being stone-cold locks makes this a cautiously pessimistic bet. If anyone is going to win the Triple Crown, it’s Judge.

Schoenfield: I’ll go with the Triple Crown. He might not drive in 144 like he did last year with Juan Soto hitting in front of him, but these Yankees are scoring at a higher clip than last year’s Yankees, so he should have enough RBI opportunities.


Judge is a runaway favorite for AL MVP. Will over or under 0.5 ballots have someone other than Judge as the AL winner?

Castillo: Under. And that doesn’t mean there won’t be worthy players in the AL. Bobby Witt Jr., Cal Raleigh and Alex Bregman rank in the top 10 in WAR across the majors. Most years, they’d be among several legitimate early MVP contenders. But Judge has just been that good. He’s levels above his peers. It’s his award to lose.

Doolittle: Under. But if I’m picking a team from scratch, I’m still taking Bobby Witt Jr. and you can’t talk me out of it. Still, if Judge doesn’t get hurt, he’ll be a unanimous pick.

Passan: Under. If Judge stays healthy, he will be a unanimous MVP. He’s that much better than everyone else in the AL — which is saying something considering Witt is in the league, too.

Schoenfield: Under. Even when Shohei Ohtani had an amazing two-way season in 2022, Judge still received 28 of 30 first-place votes. And Ohtani is in the NL now.

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MLB wild-card series: Who will stay alive in win-or-go-home Game 3s?

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MLB wild-card series: Who will stay alive in win-or-go-home Game 3s?

It’s win-or-go-home Thursday in the MLB wild-card round!

After losing their series openers, the Cleveland Guardians, San Diego Padres and New York Yankees all rebounded with Game 2 wins on Wednesday — setting up a dramatic day with three winner-take-all Game 3s. It’s only the second time in baseball history to host three winner-takes-all playoff games in one day.

Who has the edge with division series berths on the line? We’ve got you covered with pregame lineups, sights and sounds from the ballparks and postgame takeaways as each matchup ends.

Key links: Megapreview | Passan’s take | Bracket | Schedule

Jump to a matchup:
DET-CLE | SD-CHC | BOS-NYY

3 p.m. ET on ESPN

Game 3 starters: Jack Flaherty vs. Slade Cecconi

One thing that will decide Game 3: Perhaps it’s a wide brush, but Detroit’s ability to get the ball in play and convert scoring opportunities into actual runs — or not — is likely to decide Thursday’s game. The Tigers have managed to get quality at-bats early in innings and generate plenty of traffic on the bags, but they’ve been completely unable to turn those scoring chances into runs. Their 15 runners left on base in Game 2 was a record for a franchise whose postseason history dates back to 1907. Over three potential elimination games going back to last year’s ALDS matchup, the Tigers are a combined 3-for-38 (.079) with runners in scoring position. That must change or Detroit will be done. — Bradford Doolittle

Lineups

Tigers

TBD

Guardians

TBD


5 p.m. ET on ABC

Game 3 starters: Yu Darvish vs. Jameson Taillon

One thing that will decide Game 3: Look, this is going to be a battle of the bullpens. Yu Darvish and Jameson Taillon are both going to be on a very quick hook, even if they’re pitching well. But the difference might be which of those starters can get 14 or 15 outs instead of 10 or 11, especially for the Padres given that Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller both pitched in Games 1 and 2 and might have limited availability.

Darvish had a reputation early in his career as someone who couldn’t handle the pressure of a big game, but he has turned that around and has a 2.56 ERA in his six postseason starts with the Padres. Taillon, meanwhile, was terrific down the stretch with the Cubs, with a 1.57 ERA in six starts after coming off the IL in August. This looks like another low-scoring game in which the team that hits a home run will have the edge. — Schoenfield

Lineups

Padres

TBD

Cubs

TBD


8 p.m. ET on ESPN

Game 3 starters: Connelly Early vs. Cam Schlittler

One thing that will decide Game 3: Whether Connelly Early can give the Red Sox some length. Alex Cora’s aggressive decision to pull the plug on Brayan Bello’s start after just 28 pitches in Game 2 led to him using six Red Sox relievers. Garrett Whitlock, Boston’s best reliever not named Aroldis Chapman, threw 48 pitches. Chapman didn’t enter the game but warmed up for the possibility. Left-hander Kyle Harrison, a starter during the regular season, and right-hander Greg Weissert were the only pitchers in Boston’s bullpen not used in the first two games. Early doesn’t need to last seven innings. Harrison, who hasn’t pitched since last Friday, could cover multiple innings. But a quick departure would make the night very difficult for the Red Sox’s bullpen against a potent Yankees lineup. — Jorge Castillo

Lineups

Red Sox

TBD

Yankees

TBD

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Chisholm turns page, saves Yanks to force Game 3

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Chisholm turns page, saves Yanks to force Game 3

NEW YORK — Back in the starting lineup one night after he was benched for matchup purposes, Jazz Chisholm Jr. put together a season-saving performance for the New York Yankees on Wednesday night with dynamic displays of athleticism on both sides of the ball that fueled a 4-3 win over the Boston Red Sox in Game 2 of the American League Wild Card Series.

Chisholm made a crucial run-saving play with his glove in the seventh inning and hustled all the way from first base on Austin Wells‘ single to score the tiebreaking run in the eighth inning to help the Red Sox force a decisive Game 3 on Thursday.

It will be the fourth winner-take-all postseason game between the Yankees and Red Sox, and the first since the 2021 AL wild card, a one-game format won by Boston.

“Anything to help us win,” Chisholm said. “All that was clear before I came to the field today. After I left the field yesterday, it is win the next game. It is win or go home for us. It is all about winning.”

A mainstay in the lineup all season at second base, Chisholm was left off their starting nine in Game 1 against left-hander Garrett Crochet before entering the loss late as a defensive replacement.

Afterward, Chisholm took questions about manager Aaron Boone’s decision to bench him with his back turned to reporters. It was a poor attempt to conceal his disdain, one that Boone was asked about before Wednesday’s do-or-die Game 2.

“Wasn’t necessarily how I [would’ve] handled it, but I don’t need him to put a happy face on,” Boone said before the game. “I need him to go out and play his butt off for us tonight. That’s what I expect to happen.”

What happened was a clutch effort that kept the Yankees’ season alive.

In the seventh inning, with the score tied and runners on first and second for the Red Sox, Masataka Yoshida hit a ground ball to Chisholm’s right side off Yankees reliever Fernando Cruz that appeared headed to right field to give Boston the lead. Instead, Chisholm made a diving stop. His throw to first base was late and bounced away from first baseman Ben Rice, but Red Sox third base coach Kyle Hudson held Nate Eaton and Chisholm’s effort prevented the run from scoring.

“That was the game right there,” Cruz said. “I think that was the play of the game. There’s some stuff that goes unnoticed sometimes, but I want to make sure it’s mentioned. Jazz saved us the game. Completely.”

An inning later, after Cruz escaped the bases-loaded jam and erupted with a rousing display of emotions, Chisholm worked a seven-pitch, two-out walk against Garrett Whitlock. The plate appearance changed the game.

Wells followed by getting to another full count to give Chisholm the green light at first base. With Chisholm running on the pitch, Wells lined a changeup from Whitlock that landed just inside the right-field line. Chisholm, boosted with his running start, darted around the bases to score with a headfirst slide, just beating the throw to incite a previously anxious crowd.

“Any ball that an outfielder moves to his left or right, I have to score, in my head,” Chisholm said. “That’s all I was thinking.”

The Yankees’ first two runs required less exertion. Ben Rice, another left-handed hitter not included in the starting lineup in Game 1, crushed the first pitch he saw in his postseason debut for a two-run home run off Brayan Bello in the first inning.

The Red Sox matched the blast with a two-run single from Trevor Story in the third inning before manager Alex Cora made a surprising decision in the bottom half of the frame to pull Bello with one out after throwing just 28 pitches. To win, Boston’s bullpen would need to cover at least 20 outs. The aggressive tactic proved effective until Whitlock, the fifth reliever Cora summoned, surrendered Wells’ single on his season-high 48th and final pitch, unleashing Chisholm around the bases.

“What do you expect?” Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge said. “He’s a game changer. But it just shows you the maturity of not taking what happened before and bringing it into today’s game. He showed up ready to play today and ended up having the plays for us throughout the night.”

With a win Thursday, the Yankees could become the first team to take a wild-card series after losing Game 1 since the best-of-three format was implemented for the 2022 season. The Toronto Blue Jays, the AL’s top seed, await in the Division Series. Game 1 is scheduled for Saturday.

If the Yankees get there, they could have a video game to thank. Chisholm credited a late-night video game session after Game 1 in helping turn the page from his disappointment. Playing “MLB The Show” as the New York Aliens — a team he created that features himself, Ken Griffey Jr. and Jimmy Rollins — he drubbed an online opponent by a score of 12-1 and reported for work on Wednesday ready.

“I mercy-ruled someone,” Chisholm said. “That’s how I get my stress off.”

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Yamamoto puts L.A. in NLDS; Ohtani to start G1

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Yamamoto puts L.A. in NLDS; Ohtani to start G1

LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers felt they addressed any concerns about the state of their team over the final three weeks of the regular season, reeling off 15 wins in 20 games. But in case there was any doubt, they displayed their full might in two wild-card matchups against the Cincinnati Reds, the last of which, an 8-4 victory Wednesday night, advanced them into the National League Division Series.

Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, half of a four-man rotation the Dodgers will ride in their pursuit of another title, combined to give up two earned runs in 13⅔ innings. Ten batters, meanwhile, accumulated 28 hits, 15 of which came courtesy of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez, the top half of what is still widely considered the sport’s deepest lineup. In the end, even a weary bullpen — a hindrance throughout the summer and a potential obstacle in the fall — received a much-needed boost.

Roki Sasaki, the prized rookie Japanese starting pitcher who became a reliever after finally recapturing his velocity last month, checked in for the top of the ninth inning and flummoxed the Reds with triple-digit fastballs and mind-bending splitters.

In the dugout, teammates howled.

Later, in the midst of a champagne-soaked celebration, many of them were still in awe.

“That guy is gross,” Dodgers reliever Tanner Scott said.

“Wow,” third baseman Max Muncy added. “All I can say is wow.”

The Dodgers, forced to play in the best-of-three wild-card series for the first time, have advanced to the division series for the 13th consecutive year, tied with the 1995-2007 New York Yankees for the longest streak since the round was introduced. They will now travel to face the Philadelphia Phillies, who beat them in two of three games at Dodger Stadium in the middle of September.

Taking the ball in Game 1 on Saturday, with game time still undetermined, will be Ohtani.

“I know that Sho will revel being in that environment and pitching in Game 1,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said. “I think we have a really talented rotation. I think it’s going to be a strength for us if we go forward.”

It was obvious Tuesday, when Snell varied the velocity on his changeups while allowing two baserunners through the first six innings. And it was obvious Wednesday, when Yamamoto pitched into the seventh inning without giving up an earned run.

The Reds took an early 2-0 lead when Hernandez dropped a fly ball with two outs in the first and 21-year-old rookie Sal Stewart followed with a two-run single. From there, Yamamoto retired 13 consecutive batters, five via strikeout. The Reds loaded the bases against him with no outs in the sixth while trailing by a run, but Yamamoto somehow wiggled free, getting Austin Hays to ground into a force at home and striking out Stewart and Elly De La Cruz, both on curveballs.

Twenty-two months ago, the Dodgers lavished Yamamoto with the largest contract ever awarded to a starting pitcher. He languished through most of the 2024 regular season, finally rounded into form in the playoffs and followed by putting together a Cy Young-caliber season in 2025. Over his last five regular-season starts, he gave up three runs in 34 innings. That dominance has carried over into October.

“He’s shown why he got the contract that he got,” Muncy said. “It’s really impressive to be behind him. You feed off it.”

The Dodgers offense took off for four runs immediately after Yamamoto stranded the bases loaded, stringing together four hits and cycling through 10 hitters. Just like in Game 1, it seemed as if the team would cruise to victory. And just like in Game 1, the bullpen made it far more interesting than it should have been.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts sent Yamamoto back out for the seventh and watched him throw a career-high 113 pitches in hopes of putting less of a burden on his relievers. It bought him two extra outs before Roberts turned to Blake Treinen to end the inning.

But the eighth was once again a struggle. Twenty-four hours after watching the Reds score three runs off Alex Vesia, Edgardo Henriquez and Jack Dreyer in Tuesday’s eighth inning, Roberts turned to Emmet Sheehan, the young starting pitcher who has made a case as the Dodgers’ best bullpen weapon in these playoffs, and hoped for a smoother ride.

Sheehan allowed the first four batters to reach. He gave up a sacrifice fly to Tyler Stephenson then got ahead in the count 0-2 against Will Benson and threw a slider that nearly hit him.

Roberts had seen enough. With two on, one out, the count 1-2 and two runs already across, he approached the mound, shared a word with Sheehan then called on Vesia. Sheehan became the first pitcher to be pulled from a postseason game in the middle of an at-bat with two strikes since Game 5 of the 2021 NL Championship Series, when Roberts replaced an injured Joe Kelly with Evan Phillips.

“I trust him,” Roberts said of Sheehan. “It was his first real crack at kind of late leverage. He wasn’t sharp, but I believe in him.”

Vesia, a left-hander, struck out right-handed pinch hitter Miguel Andujar with a first-pitch fastball then walked Matt McLain and retired TJ Friedl with a slider low and away to end the threat. An inning later, Sasaki came out of the bullpen, befuddled the Reds’ hitters, recorded three quick outs and, depending on what happens in the ensuing weeks, might have changed the complexion of the pitching staff.

A month ago, the Dodgers were languishing. Their offense was inconsistent, their rotation was only beginning to round into form, and their bullpen was a mess.

Now, it seems, they’re bullish.

“I think we can win it all,” Roberts said when asked how far he believes his team can go. “I think we’re equipped to do that. We certainly have the pedigree. We certainly have the hunger. We’re playing great baseball. And in all honesty, I don’t care who we play. I just want to be the last team standing.”

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