Aaron Judge is at it again. A season after running away with AL MVP honors, the New York Yankees superstar is off to the best start of his career, batting .412 and already producing 4.0 WAR a quarter of the way into the 2025 season.
Can Judge keep this up? Will he top his own AL record for home runs? And can anyone keep him from winning a Triple Crown or repeating as unanimous MVP?
We set over/unders based on Judge’s ridiculous pace and asked our MLB experts to predict where his otherworldly season will go from here.
Aaron Judge’s expected batting average is .362. Will his actual BA for the season be over/under that?
Jorge Castillo: Under. One player has batted at least .350 over a full season since 2010: Luis Arraez, whose contact-first approach is so extreme that he has drawn comparisons to Tony Gwynn. Not one player has finished a season .360 or better since Joe Mauer in 2009. In short, it’s just super difficult to sustain such a high average nowadays when hitting is harder than ever.
Judge’s .481 BABIP is significantly higher than his career mark of .344 entering the season, which strongly suggests a regression in this department is coming. Simply winning the batting title would be an extraordinary accomplishment for the 6-foot-7 slugger.
Bradford Doolittle: Under. All told, Judge’s xBA is .340 since he changed his batting stance last season. Month by month, he has topped .362 twice — the current month and last May — post-tweak. He has mostly been over .300 each month but has been as low as .277. So .362 is too high, but .340, a realistic target, is pretty amazing itself.
Jeff Passan: Under. He is currently batting .410 — with a .481 average on balls in play. Judge’s lifetime BABIP is .351. Even if he winds up hitting .400 on balls in play, the sheer volume of strikeouts — he’s punching out in 20.9% of his plate appearances — severely limits anyone’s ability to post an average as high as .360. The highest K rate ever for a hitter over .360 was Andres Galarraga at 14.4% (when he hit .370 for the 1993 Rockies). It’s foolish to doubt that Judge can do anything, but the numbers simply don’t support this being a reality.
David Schoenfield: Under. For all the reasons Jeff outlined. The best chance for Judge to hit .360 would be to draw a lot of walks and thus make each hit count more, but he’s walking less often than last season. Then there’s just the sheer difficulty of hitting that high in this era. Not counting the short season of 2020, the last right-handed batter to hit .360 was Magglio Ordonez at .363 with the Tigers in 2007 — a year in which the AL average was .271, almost 30 points above this year’s average of .242.
Judge’s current OPS+ is 257. Will he finish the year over or under his career high of 225 set last year.
Castillo: Over. Around this time a year ago Judge was just beginning his historic five-month onslaught after a sluggish April, and he still finished with the highest OPS+ since Barry Bonds’ ridiculous 2004 season (263). Offensive production across the majors is down (slightly) from last season so far, making Judge’s sustained excellence even more mind-blowing. And that context is necessary when evaluating his OPS+ prospects. Judge would have to experience a significant dropoff to not eclipse last season’s number.
Doolittle: Over. It’ll be close, but I’ll take the over. His expected stats supported an even higher OPS+ than he finished with in 2024 and those numbers are on target to at least repeat that level. I don’t see the league levels spiking, which matters a lot in the OPS+ calculation. The higher the league level, the more air has to come out of raw OPS figures. I think he’ll land at around 230.
Passan: Over. This is the best version of Judge yet in his illustrious 10-year career. He’s striking out less than ever and continues to hit the ball with his typical velocity and ferocity. And with offense around the sport as weak as it is, a number like OPS+ — which is measured by a player’s numbers compared to league averages — is ripe to be exploited.
Schoenfield: Over. Last year, he had a slow start when he had a .754 OPS in April and still finished with that 225 OPS+. This version of Judge appears slump-proof. Even when he had a stretch in April when he homered just once in 20 games, he managed to hit .425/.528/.546 to keep that OPS high.
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Passan: ‘This is the best version of Aaron Judge that we have ever seen’
Jeff Passan joins the “The Pat McAfee Show” to talk about Aaron Judge’s hot start to the season for the Yankees.
Judge is on pace for 56.5 home runs. Will he go over/under that total?
Castillo: Over. Between cold temperatures and consistent rain, the Yankees have dealt with some miserable weather — home and away — in the early going. It’s only a matter of time until the weather warms up. Judge will take advantage when it does.
Doolittle: Over. He has actually been hitting the ball on the ground much more than usual with his flyballs being reduced. That may be an evolved approach, but I still expect that distribution to level out closer to his career norms — which means more fly balls. Judge’s fly balls tend to leave the ballpark, so I think he’ll get to 60 again.
Passan: Over. Judge has yet to go on one of his home run jags — during a 20-game stretch in April, he hit just one — and when that happens, it’s going to put him in position to make a run at the 62 he hit in 2022.
Schoenfield: Not including June and July of 2023, when he hurt his toe and played just five games, Judge has averaged 10 home runs per month — with half of May still to go. Give him five more home runs in May and 40 from June through September and we get 59. Over.
Judge has already posted 4.0 FanGraphs WAR in 2025. Will he surpass his career high of 11.2 from last season?
Castillo: Over. He’s on pace to smash 11.2. If he stays healthy, he’ll threaten to surpass Bonds’ 11.9-WAR season in 2004 and enter the top 10 of all time in the category.
Doolittle: Over. At Baseball-Reference (not the WAR number cited here), his individual winning percentage, based on wins above average, is .568; last year it was .554, so there’s a buffer there against some regression. Playing exclusively in right should boost Judge’s fielding plus/minus metrics and at least offset any hit he might take in positional value. He just needs to stay healthy and he’ll get to 12 wins, at least.
Passan: Over. This is a tough one because of the whims of single-year defensive and baserunning metrics. Judge last season was considered a below-average defender and slightly below-average baserunner. Thus far this year, he is an average defender and poor baserunner.
The offense is always going to be there. The question is the marginal elements that can earn those differentiating tenths of a WAR. It would be his third season with a WAR of 11 or higher in four years, by the way. The only players ever to do that are Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds.
Schoenfield: He’s on pace for nearly 14 WAR. We just said he seems slump-proof. Over 11.2 WAR.
Judge currently leads the league in all three Triple Crown categories. Will he finish atop the AL in over/under 2.5 of them?
Castillo: Over. See above: If Judge stays healthy, he’ll put together one of the greatest seasons ever and it’ll come with a Triple Crown. Batting average is the tallest challenge and RBI totals always depend on teammates being on base. But he already holds a near-50-point lead on the competition in batting average and the Yankees’ offense is good enough around him for consistent RBI opportunities.
Doolittle: As long as teams don’t start doing ill-advised, peak-Bonds stuff like walking Judge whenever someone is on base, I’ll take the over — even though winning a Triple Crown is an incredibly difficult thing to do. I just think this is where Judge is at this point of his career, which is a place few others have been to in the history of the sport.
Passan: Under. He’ll lead in home runs. The batting average element is scary, though — Judge’s career high to this point is .322 — and RBIs are so lineup-dependent. If Judge finds himself in the 3-hole more often, that element becomes less of a concern, but the combination of two categories not being stone-cold locks makes this a cautiously pessimistic bet. If anyone is going to win the Triple Crown, it’s Judge.
Schoenfield: I’ll go with the Triple Crown. He might not drive in 144 like he did last year with Juan Soto hitting in front of him, but these Yankees are scoring at a higher clip than last year’s Yankees, so he should have enough RBI opportunities.
Judge is a runaway favorite for AL MVP. Will over or under 0.5 ballots have someone other than Judge as the AL winner?
Castillo: Under. And that doesn’t mean there won’t be worthy players in the AL. Bobby Witt Jr., Cal Raleigh and Alex Bregman rank in the top 10 in WAR across the majors. Most years, they’d be among several legitimate early MVP contenders. But Judge has just been that good. He’s levels above his peers. It’s his award to lose.
Doolittle: Under. But if I’m picking a team from scratch, I’m still taking Bobby Witt Jr. and you can’t talk me out of it. Still, if Judge doesn’t get hurt, he’ll be a unanimous pick.
Passan: Under. If Judge stays healthy, he will be a unanimous MVP. He’s that much better than everyone else in the AL — which is saying something considering Witt is in the league, too.
Schoenfield: Under. Even when Shohei Ohtani had an amazing two-way season in 2022, Judge still received 28 of 30 first-place votes. And Ohtani is in the NL now.
CHICAGO — Seattle workhorse right-hander George Kirby is expected to start and make his season debut on Thursday night when the Mariners open a four-game series in Houston.
Kirby has been on the injured list since March 24 with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. The 27-year-old’s return should help bolster the Mariners’ rotation that remains without Opening Day starter Logan Gilbert, who’s working back from a flexor strain in his right forearm.
Kirby started 33 games last season to tie for the major league lead. He went 14-11 with a 3.53 ERA with 179 strikeouts and 23 walks in 191 innings.
He was an AL All-Star in 2023, when he made 31 starts and went 13-10 with a 3.35 ERA in 190⅔ innings.
Following his injury diagnosis, Kirby made only one appearance in 2025 spring training. He’s followed with three rehab starts at Triple-A Tacoma.
“Obviously looking forward to getting George back out there,” Mariners manager Dan Wilson said. “I know it’s been a long road for George since spring training. And you know, you put the work in, you do your rehab assignments and mentally you’re ready to go.”
Wilson said Kirby probably would be limited to “75, maybe 80 pitches” against the Astros.
Before Wednesday’s series finale against the White Sox in Chicago, the Mariners recalled right-hander Jesse Hahn from Tacoma and designated righty Casey Lawrence for assignment.
Hahn will return to Seattle for a second time this season after two appearances in April. He has pitched four innings with the Mariners, going 0-1 with a 4.59 ERA.
Lawrence tossed five innings of bulk relief on Tuesday in Seattle’s 1-0 loss to Chicago, allowing one run on six hits and taking the defeat. He’s 1-2 with a 4.08 ERA in 17⅔ innings and six appearances this season with the Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays.
Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Jared Jones will undergo surgery on his right elbow Wednesday and will miss the remainder of the season, the team announced.
Jones, who was slated to be the team’s No. 2 starter this season, has been on the injury list with a UCL sprain in his right elbow. His recovery was trending in the right direction before a setback last week in which he felt discomfort while doing long tosses (100 feet).
Pirates senior director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Jones, 23, visited elbow surgeon Dr. Keith Meister on Tuesday and made the decision to proceed with the surgery. A time frame for Jones’ return has yet to be established.
Jones went 6-8 with a 4.14 ERA in 22 starts during his rookie season in 2024, though he did miss time because of a lat injury.
Pittsburgh had hoped Jones would be featured near the top of the rotation, along with reigning National League Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes and veteran Mitch Keller.
Tomczyk said surgery was one of the options presented to Jones at the time of the injury, but Jones, with the support of the club and other medical experts, opted for rehab to give him a “fighting chance” to pitch in 2025.
Jones was shut down for six weeks, then began throwing from 60 feet in late April without issue. It wasn’t until the program was extended to 100 feet that Jones felt discomfort.
First baseman Enmanuel Valdez will also miss the rest of the season after having surgery on his left shoulder.
The Associated Press and Field Level Media contributed to this report.
Four teams remain in the race for the Stanley Cup. The race for most valuable player of the NHL postseason is a bit more crowded.
Here’s the latest Conn Smythe Watch for the 2025 postseason. We asked over two dozen national writers and beat writers who are covering the conference finals for their top three MVP candidates after two rounds of play. Ballots were collected and tabulated before Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals.
Keep in mind that in the NHL, the Conn Smythe is based on a player’s performance during the entire postseason, not only the championship round. The award is voted on by an 18-person panel of Professional Hockey Writers Association members.
The current MVP leader
For the second straight round, Rantanen leads the Conn Smythe Watch as he helped lead the Dallas Stars to their third straight conference finals. Through 13 postseason games, he leads all playoff scorers with 19 points, including a playoff-best nine goals.
Rantanen was the only player to appear on every ballot we surveyed from the writers. Only two voters had him anywhere but first place for the Conn Smythe — one national writer had him second, and a beat writer had Rantanen third on their ballot.
As Dallas coach Peter DeBoer put it: Rantanen is playing as if he’s “on a mission.” He was a one-man wrecking crew against his old teammates from Colorado, the team that traded him earlier this season rather than sign him to a contract extension. He did more damage against the Winnipeg Jets in the second round with a Game 1 hat trick on the road.
Rantanen cooled off a little bit later in the series, with one assist in the last three games of the series. But his accomplishments to that point made him the clear MVP in the eyes of our panelists. He’s the first player in NHL history with five three-point games through a team’s first 10 playoff games in a single postseason. He set another NHL record by either scoring or assisting on 13 consecutive goals by his team. At one point, Rantanen had factored in on 15 of 16 goals for Dallas.
One voter noted that the “crazy solo efforts he has had in a couple of games” makes him an obvious choice.
Or as another voter put it: “It’s almost hard to believe the dominance he’s displayed.”
One thing to consider about Rantanen: He has the narrative. The “revenge tour” against the Avalanche in the first round was part of a larger story about proving he’s worth his big new contract with Dallas and that he can thrive as an offensive star without Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar on his team.
“When you think about his journey this year, he’s been through a lot,” DeBoer said. “There’s been a lot written about him. There’s been a lot said about him. There’s been a lot of doubters out there.”
So far, Rantanen has silenced them.
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Kevin Weekes’ players to watch in ‘epic’ Oilers-Stars showdown
Kevin Weekes lays out what to expect from the Western Conference finals rematch between the Edmonton Oilers and the Dallas Stars.
The other favorites
This is where we need to reiterate that the ballot tabulation was done before Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals.
Andersen was the clear second choice among voters before he faced the Panthers. He was voted second for playoff MVP on 47% of the ballots we surveyed.
Before Game 1, he had allowed only 12 goals in nine games for a .937 save percentage and a 1.36 goals-against average. “His stats are mind-blowing when you think about how good Washington’s offense should have been in that series,” one voter said.
After giving up five goals on 20 shots to Florida in Carolina’s Game 1 loss — not all of them his fault entirely — Andersen’s save percentage dropped to .919 while his goals-against average rose to 1.74.
It’s possible that Andersen and Florida goalie Sergei Bobrovsky will see their spots in this ranking flip during the series. But it was only one game, and Andersen’s numbers at home before that loss to the Panthers were quite good.
McDavid was also in the top three in the last round. In the 2024 postseason, the Edmonton star became only the second player in NHL history to win the Conn Smythe in a losing effort, as the Oilers fell in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final to the Panthers. Now, he’s trying to become the fourth player ever — and the first player since Sidney Crosby (2016-17) — to win consecutive Conn Smythe trophies.
Through 11 games, McDavid has 17 points (three goals, 14 assists). His 1.55 points-per-game average leads all players still active in the postseason. Through 11 games last season, McDavid had 21 points. But that has been one of the things that defined this Oilers’ run to the conference finals: They haven’t needed McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to drag them there on their own. Perhaps that has been reflected in the voting.
For what it’s worth, McDavid is the favorite to win the Conn Smythe on ESPN BET, at +325, ahead of Rantanen (+350) as of Tuesday night.
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Jake Oettinger: McDavid will go down as the best player of all time
Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger joins “SportsCenter” to preview Dallas’ series against Connor McDavid and the Oilers.
Making their cases
These two players received the next highest number of votes outside the top three.
It was notable that one beat writer had Oettinger first overall on their ballot, with Rantanen third. That might be a little bit of recency bias: Rantanen did most of his damage at the end of the first round and early in the second, and Oettinger was a difference-maker in all four of the Stars’ wins against Winnipeg, including Game 7, when he stopped 22 of 23 shots. As dominant as Rantanen was in Game 7 against the Avalanche in the first round, Oettinger made 25 saves and was brilliant late in that elimination game to preserve the win.
Overall, Oettinger has a .919 save percentage and a 2.47 goals-against average in 13 games for Dallas. But he has some work to do: The Stars goalie appeared on only three ballots in total, with one first- and two second-place votes.
Draisaitl is right behind McDavid in scoring with five goals and 11 assists in 11 games for the Oilers. He made the top three on four ballots, with two second-place and two third-place votes.
In his favor are two overtime goals: in Game 4 against the Los Angeles Kings in the opening round to even their series, and then in Game 2 in Las Vegas to give the Oilers a 2-0 series lead. He also had the primary assist on Kasperi Kapanen‘s series-clinching goal in Game 5 against Vegas.
Those moments more than balance one of the lowest points of Draisaitl’s postseason, when Reilly Smith of the Golden Knights scored with 0.4 left in Game 3 on a shot that deflected off of Draisaitl’s stick.
One thing to remember with Draisaitl’s MVP case is the praise he’s receiving for his two-way game. As the Oilers have become one of the best defensive teams in the postseason, posting back-to-back shutouts to end the Golden Knights, Draisaitl could get a portion of the credit.
“You often think of those guys who are putting up a lot of points, they neglect the defensive responsibilities,” Edmonton coach Kris Knoblauch said before the conference finals. “Leon has never neglected his defensive responsibilities. In fact, if I was to show clips on how to backcheck and how to work, getting above the opposition, Leon would be the leading guy on all the clips that I can find, and he’s the one who does it the best.”
Some Panthers finally make the list! In fairness, that’s a tribute to the balance and depth that Florida has shown through two rounds. The team had 11 players with at least six points through their series win against the Leafs.
Bobrovsky didn’t have stellar numbers entering the conference final (.901 save percentage) thanks to four games in which he gave up four-plus goals. But Playoff Bob has emerged when he’s needed — like in the last four games of the Maple Leafs series and in Game 1 against Carolina, where he might have been the difference in that 5-2 win.
“I try to stay with one moment and not try not to think about the future or past,” he said after Game 1. “So it’s one moment, one save at a time. And that’s pretty much it.”
Marchand was tied for the team lead in points (12) after two rounds, and really made a statement in the MVP race with his Game 7 dagger against Toronto. He also had a critical Game 3 overtime winner after the Leafs took a 2-0 lead in the series.
Both Marchand and Bobrovsky showed up on two ballots. Bobrovsky earned one second-place vote.
Svechnikov was also on two ballots, both third-place votes. The Hurricanes winger was second in the postseason with eight goals after two rounds.
Slavin had two goals and two assists in 10 games, including the overtime winner in Game 1 against the Capitals. He has had an outstanding season, including a much-lauded performance in the 4 Nations Face-Off for Team USA. He also earned a ringing endorsement from Capitals coach Spencer Carbery after Carolina eliminated Washington. “How he’s not in the Norris Trophy conversation every single year, it doesn’t seem right,” the coach said. “He’s one heck of a player.”
Jones has been really strong for the Panthers, especially in their Game 7 win in Toronto. Through two rounds, Luostarinen was tied with his linemate Marchand for the team lead with 12 points, but now leads the team with 13 points after his Game 1 goal against Carolina — remarkably, his 12th point in eight road playoff games.