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Sex offenders could face chemical castration and thousands of offenders will be released after serving a third of their jail term, under plans proposed in a sentencing policy review set to be accepted by ministers.

The independent review, led by the former justice secretary David Gauke, was commissioned by the government amid an overcrowding crisis in prisons in England and Wales.

It has made a series of recommendations with the aim of reducing the prison population by 9,800 people by 2028.

The key proposal, which it is understood the government will implement, is a “progression model” – which would see offenders who behave well in jail only serve a third of their term in custody, before being released.

The measure will apply to people serving standard determinate sentences, which is the most common type of jail term, being served by the majority of offenders.

It will be based on sentence length, rather than offence type. That means sex offenders and domestic abusers serving sentences of under four years, could all be eligible for early release.

The policy will mean inmates serve only a third of their sentence in prison, a third on licence in the community, with the remaining portion under no probation supervision at all.

If the offender committed further offences in the “at risk” – or final – stages of their sentence, once out of prison, they would be sent back to jail to serve the remainder of the original sentence, plus time inside jail for the new offence.

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Is government ‘prepared to be unpopular’ over prisons?

Chemical castration trial could be extended

The government will also further the use of medication to suppress the sexual drive of sex offenders, which is currently being piloted in southwest England.

The review recommended that chemical castration “may assist in management of suitable sex offenders both in prison and in the community”.

Ministers are to announce plans for a nationwide rollout, and will first expand the use of the medication to 20 prisons across England.

The justice secretary is also considering whether to make castration mandatory. It’s currently voluntary.

Mr Gauke, the chair of the independent sentencing review, told Sky News that “drugs that reduce sexual desire” will not be “appropriate for every sexual offender”.

“I’m not going to claim it’s the answer for everything,” the former justice secretary said. “This is about reducing the risk of re-offending in future.

“There are some sex offenders who want to reduce their desires and if we can explore this, I think that is something that’s worthwhile.”

However, Mr Gauke stressed that the government needs to focus on “reducing crime overall”.

TUESDAY MAY 14 File photo dated 29/04/13 of a general view of a Prison. Dangerous criminals including a domestic abuser who posed a risk to children have been freed from jail early as part of a Government bid to cut overcrowding, a watchdog has warned. Issue date: Tuesday May 14, 2024.
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Prisons in England and Wales are facing an overcrowding crisis. File pic: PA

Domestic abuse commissioner criticises plans

Under his recommendations, violent offenders who are serving sentences of four years or more could be released on licence after spending half of their sentence behind bars. This could be extended if they do not comply with prison rules. These prisoners would then be supervised in the community until 80% of their sentence.

In response to the review, the police have warned: “Out of prison should not mean out of control.”

“If we are going to have fewer people in prison, we need to ensure that we collectively have the resources and powers to manage the risk offenders pose outside of prison,” said Chief Constable Sacha Hatchett at the National Police Chiefs Council.

The domestic abuse commissioner for England and Wales, Nicole Jacobs, said adopting the measures would amount to “watering down” the criminal justice system.

“By adopting these measures the government will be sending a clear message to domestic abusers that they can now offend with little consequence,” she said.

In a set of proposals considered to be the biggest overhaul of sentencing power laws since the 1990s, judges could be given more flexibility to punish lower level offenders with bans on football or driving.

The review has also recommended that short sentences should only be used in “exceptional circumstances”, suggesting they are “associated with higher proven reoffending” and “fall short in providing meaningful rehabilitation to offenders”.

The Howard League for Penal Reform has welcomed the proposals as a “good start”.

“This is a vital review that makes the case for change by focusing on the evidence on what will reduce reoffending and prevent more people becoming victims of crime,” said chief executive Andrea Coomber.

David Gauke’s review has called on the government to “invest” in a probation service that is “under significant strain”, as its proposals recommend a larger number of offenders should be punished and supervised in the community.

“Tagging can be a useful way to monitor offenders and identify escalating risks,” it said.

The government is set to invest a further £700m in the probation service and introduce a mass expansion of tagging technology, where tens of thousands of criminals will be monitored at any one time, creating a “prison outside of a prison”, with the help of US tech companies.

‘Overriding concerns’

The Victims Commissioner, Baroness Newlove, has expressed an “overriding concern” about the ability of an “already stretched probation service” to “withstand the additional pressure” of managing a larger number of people outside of prison.

The policy review also makes recommendations around offenders that are recalled to prison after breaching their licence conditions.

Currently, around 15% of those behind bars are there because they have been recalled. Mostly, it’s for breaching of licence conditions, rather than further offences.

The review recommends a “tighter threshold” for recall so that it is “only used to address consistent non-compliance”, with licence conditions – which can include missing a probation appointment.

Read more:
Minister refuses to rule out ‘supermax’ prisons
Victim watchdog questions offenders’ early release

Last week the government announced plans that will see offenders serving one to four-year sentences held for a fixed 28-day period if they are returned to jail.

The review suggests increasing that limit to 56 days, in order to “allow sufficient time for planning around appropriate conditions for safe re-release into community supervision”.

The government is expected to accept the review’s key measures, and implement them with a sentencing bill before parliament.

The plans will likely require legislation and only be before the courts by the spring of 2026.

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Baroness Mone should resign from Lords, after order to pay back £122m over COVID PPE

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Baroness Mone should resign from Lords, after order to pay back £122m over COVID PPE

Michelle Mone should resign from the House of Lords, a senior Conservative MP has told Sky News.

Speaking to Sky News, shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho said Baroness Mone of Mayfair should do the “honourable thing” and “resign” as a member of the House of Lords.

Yesterday the Mone-linked firm PPE Medpro was ordered to pay close to £122m of taxpayer cash back to the government after it was found to have breached a contract for supplying PPE during the COVID pandemic.

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The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) brought the case, saying it provided 25 million “faulty”, non-sterile gowns.

Baroness Mone was a Tory peer, although she currently has the whip suspended, meaning she isn’t a member of the official grouping in the chamber.

Speaking to Wilf Frost, Ms Coutinho said: “We’ve taken away the Conservative whip, she’s no longer a Conservative peer.

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“And I think the honourable thing to do, particularly in light of this, would be to resign.”

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Coutinho says Mone should resign

Removing a peerage from someone requires an act of parliament, although members of the House of Lords can be permanently excluded by a vote in the upper chamber if an investigation finds they have committed wrongdoing.

Currently, the parliamentary investigations into Baroness Mone are paused while other inquiries – including from the National Crime Agency – play out.

In her interview with Sky News, Ms Coutinho emphasised that it was the last Conservative government that started the lawsuit against PPE Medpro.

She defended the procurement methods employed by the government during the pandemic – saying it was an “incredibly frantic environment”.

Taking decisions quickly also led to successes like the vaccine rollout, Ms Coutinho added.

But she said the public was “rightly disgusted” by some of the outcomes including people who “didn’t live up to their promises and pocketed huge amounts of money”.

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£122m bill that may never be paid

Read more:
Can PPE Medpro afford the bill?
Mone accuses government of ‘scapegoating’

PPE was a consortium led by Baroness Mone’s husband, businessman Doug Barrowman, and was awarded the government contract after she recommended it to ministers.

The legal hearing between the business and the government was centred on the 25 million surgical gowns PPE Medpro sold to the NHS for £122m, rather than the way the contract was awarded.

The judge found the gowns were not sterile and deemed this a breach of contract.

Baroness Mone was given a peerage by Lord David Cameron when he was prime minster, having worked as an entrepreneur running a lingerie firm.

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Mr Barrowman incorporated PPE Medpro on the same day in May 2020 that Baroness Mone began using her political contacts – including to Tory minister Michael Gove – to bring the firm to the government’s attention.

The day before the judgement was handed down this week, PPE Medpro was put into administration, meaning recovery will be handled by the administrator, not Mr Barrowman.

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Finances feeling tight? New figures on disposable income help explain why

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'A disaster for living standards': We now have just £1 more of disposable income than in 2019

Monthly disposable income fell by £40 per person between Boris Johnson’s election victory in December 2019 and Rishi Sunak’s defeat in July 2024.

It is the first time in recorded British history that disposable income has been lower at the end of a parliamentary term than it was at the start, Sky News Data x Forensics analysis reveals.

Disposable income is the money people have left over after paying taxes and receiving benefits (including pensions). Essential expenses like rent or mortgage payments, council tax, food and energy bills all need to be paid from disposable income.

Previously published figures showed a slight improvement between December 2019 and June 2024, but those were updated by the Office for National Statistics on Tuesday.

There has been an uplift in the last year, although we’re poorer now than we were at the start of the year, and today we only have £1 more on average to spend or save each month than we did at the end of 2019.

That represents “an unmitigated disaster for living standards”, according to Lalitha Try, economist at independent living standards thinktank the Resolution Foundation.

Have things gotten better under Labour?

Disposable income has increased by £41 per person per month since Labour took office in July 2024. However, that masks a significant deterioration in recent months: it is lower now than it was at the start of 2025.

In the first six months of Labour’s tenure, disposable income rose by £55, a larger increase than under any other government in the same period. In part, this was down to the pay rises for public sector workers that had been agreed under the previous Conservative administration.

But the rise also represents a continuation of the trajectory from the final six months of the outgoing government. Between December 2023 and June 2024, monthly disposable income rose by £46.

That trajectory reversed in the first part of this year, and the average person now has £14 less to spend or save each month than they did at the start of 2025.

Jeremy Hunt, Conservative chancellor from October 2022 until the July 2024 election defeat, told Sky News: “The big picture is that it was the pandemic rather than actions of a government that caused it [the fall in disposable income].

“I clawed some back through (I know I would say this) hard work, and Labour tried to buy an instant boost through massive pay rises. The curious thing is why they have not fed through to the numbers.”

The £40 drop between Mr Johnson’s electoral victory in 2019 and Mr Sunak’s loss in 2024 is roughly the same as the average person spends on food and drink per week.

By comparison, since 1955, when the data dates back to, living standards have improved by an average of £115 per month between parliamentary terms.

Vital services, things like energy, food and housing, that all need to be paid for out of disposable income, have all increased in price at a faster rate than overall inflation since 2019 as well.

This means that the impact on savings and discretionary spending is likely to be more severe for most people, and especially so for lower earners who spend a larger proportion of their money on essentials.

Responding to our analysis, the Resolution Foundation’s Lalitha Try said: “Average household incomes fell marginally during the last parliament – an unmitigated disaster for living standards, as families were hit first by the pandemic and then the highest inflation in a generation.

“We desperately need a catch-up boost to household incomes in the second half of the 2020s, and to achieve that we’ll need a return to wider economic growth.”

Analysis by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, which also takes into account housing costs, says that disposable income is projected to be £45 a month lower by September 2029 than it was when Labour took office.

We approached both Labour and the Conservative Party for comment but both failed to respond.

Read more:
Is PM making progress towards his key policies?

How are Labour performing in other areas?

Labour have made “improving living standards in all parts of the UK” one of their main “missions” to achieve during this parliament.

Sam Ray-Chaudhuri, research economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, told Sky News: “Labour’s mission to see an increase in living standards over the parliament remains a very unambitious one, given that (now) almost every parliament has seen a growth in disposable income.

“Doing so will represent an improvement compared with the last parliament, but it doesn’t change the fact that we are in a period of real lack of growth over the last few years.”

As well as the living standards pledge, the Sky News Data x Forensics team has been tracking some of the other key promises made by Sir Keir and his party, before and after they got into power, including both economic targets and policy goals.

Use our tracker to see how things like tax, inflation and economic growth has changed since Labour were elected.

The policy areas we have been tracking include immigration, healthcare, house-building, energy and crime. You can see Labour’s performance on each of those here.

Click here to read more information about why we picked these targets and how we’re measuring them.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Living standards are stalling – and the signals are flashing red for the prime minister

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Living standards are stalling - and the signals are flashing red for the prime minister

Labour swept into government with a promise of economic growth.

That promise contained another, more important, promise: this growth would unlock prosperity for ordinary people.

The government made it a mission to raise living standards in every part of the country.

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How did the PM perform at conference?

Politicians know all too well that most people want to feel like they’re getting on in life. They want to get on the housing ladder. They want to be able to start a family, have a comfortable retirement or pass something on to their loved ones.

When this doesn’t happen, politicians often take the blame.

So, the promise to raise living standards is an important one in politics but it is not an ambitious one. Outside of the last parliament, which was plagued by COVID and an inflationary crisis, every post-war government has managed it. Will Sir Keir Starmer?

New analysis by the Sky News Data x Forensics team is sobering. Disposable incomes – that’s average income after tax – are barely higher than they were in 2019.

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We are only £1 a month better off now than we were before the pandemic.

Pic: iStock
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Pic: iStock

Labour got off to a good start. The Tories, in their final year, oversaw a £126 increase in disposable incomes (adjusted for inflation), determined as they were to get a grip on inflation.

The new government built on that by boosting earnings for public sector workers – including rail workers and doctors – who received chunky pay rises. However, the country is now going backwards. In the first six months of the year, disposable incomes have fallen by £43.

So, after a year in government, the signals are flashing red for the prime minister.

Not only are incomes stalling, but it comes after a long period of growing wealth inequality. The share of assets, such as property, owned by the richest in society is growing. No wonder people feel they can’t catch up.

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Inflation up: the bad and ‘good’ news

The problems are clear, but the solutions are more difficult.

The government also came into office with a promise to fix public services, without going on a borrowing spree. That means taxes have to play a part.

Labour promised it wouldn’t raise taxes on working people (income tax, national insurance or VAT) but it hasn’t cut them either.

Taxes are still at a generational high. This is eating into our pay packets and, in turn, living standards. This is before rents, utility bills and food take their share.

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Darren Jones fails to rule out income tax or VAT hikes

Meanwhile, Labour’s decision to raise money through business taxes is putting further pressure on inflation, as prices in the shops go up.

That means our money isn’t going as far as it could be. The prospect of further tax rises in the budget won’t help matters. But what alternatives does the government have?

More borrowing is risky. Cuts to public services are unpalatable. Economic growth – which could unlock pay rises – has been promised but may take time to bear fruit.

Better productivity is an eternal puzzle. The government could always tax differently, by targeting the wealthy, but the government seems to be worried that money could leave the country.

It’s a difficult bind and, if the government fails to turn things around, incomes risk slipping this parliament. That would be a disaster for Sir Keir Starmer.

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