You might tut at sluggish GDP or sigh at labour market data, presuming you notice them at all, but inflation is the number you feel in your pocket.
This month the link could not be plainer. The headline rate of CPI inflation in April jumped 3.5% on the same time a year ago, up almost a percentage point on March, and driven largely by the timing of changes in household bills.
April is the start of the new financial year, and households do not need the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to tell them that means price rises.
Combined gas and electricity prices are up almost 7% and water bills more than 25% on average, and index-linked broadband and mobile phone increases kicked in too.
Add a council tax hike of 5%, not included in the CPI calculation, and Sky News analysis suggests an average annual increase of almost £500 for every household, inescapable for billpayers and awkward for a government that came to power promising to put more money in people’s pockets.
That case is harder to make when policy choices are considered inflationary.
The ONS pointed to increases in transport costs driven by vehicle excise duty – car tax – for both electric and internal combustion engine vehicles.
April also saw the introduction of increased employer National Insurance payments and a reduced threshold, along with a 6% increase in the minimum wage, welcome for employees but another pressure on business.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
5:33
‘Growth will come, but will take time’
Chancellor Rachel Reeves did not deny that these costs would weigh on employers and could impact prices, but remains steadfast that tax rises were necessary to stabilise the public finances she inherited.
She cited the potential impact of recent deals with the US, India and this week the EU to boost trade.
The good news is that this may be close to the peak of an inflation surge long anticipated by the Bank of England and, while wages continue to rise faster than prices, the rate of increase may be slowing down.
There are also some statistical factors that inflate the April figure a little too, primarily a late Easter (last year it fell in March) which pushed up spending on airfares, recreation and culture.
Having already cut rates twice this year the Bank says it remains committed to a “gradual” path for further reductions.
Rachel Reeves is setting out her spending review in the House of Commons.
It outlines how much funding individual government departments will receive over the next three years and state infrastructure investment for the next four years.
The last spending review took place during the COVID-19 pandemic, and before that, in 2015.
Here’s what’s been announced so far – please refresh this page for updates.
Defence
A major recipient of funds is the Ministry of Defence. Defence spending will rise from 2.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) to 2.6% by 2027. An £11bn uplift and a £600 million uplift for security and intelligence agencies.
Within that there’ll be £4.5bn of investment in munitions made in Glasgow and more than £6bn to upgrade to nuclear submarine production.
Border security
The chancellor goes onto border security, where she says funding will increase with up to £280m more per year by the end of the spending review for the new Border Security Command.
She said the Home Secretary Yvette Cooper will end the costly use of hotels to house asylum seekers by 2029.
The chancellor says funding she has announced today, including from the transformation fund, will also cut the asylum backlog, see more appeal cases heard and “return people who have no right to be here”.
This will save the taxpayer £1bn a year, she says.
Energy
The biggest nuclear building programme for half a century has been announced with £14.2bn being poured into the Sizewell C nuclear power station on the Suffolk coastline.
A total of £14bn will go to the Sizewell C nuclear power plant. Another £2.5bn will be invested in a new small modular reactor programme.
A commitment to nuclear was reiterated, with £30bn allocated.
Science and technology
Moving on from energy and infrastructure, the chancellor says she wants the country’s high tech industries in Britain to continue to lead the world in the years to come.
Research and development funding will go to a record high of £22bn a year by the end of the spending period.
The government’s artificial intelligence action plan will receive £2bn.
Housing
Government funding of social and affordable housing has been allocated £39bn – which she called the “biggest cash injection into social housing in 50 years”.
She says she is providing an additional £10bn for financial investments, including to be delivered through Homes England, to help unlock hundreds of thousands more homes.
Transport
The chancellor announced £15bn for new rail, tram and bus networks across the West Midlands and the North. She’s also green-lit a new rail line between Liverpool and Manchester.
The chancellor will unveil the spending review at lunchtime – with plans to invest billions of pounds across the UK.
However, Rachel Reeves will admit that “too many people” are yet to feel the benefits of the government’s work so far.
In the House of Commons, she will confirm the budgets for each government department over the next three years – with boosts expected for schools, defence and the NHS.
Ms Reeves will vow to spend vast sums of money across the country to “ensure that renewal is felt in people’s everyday lives, their jobs, their communities”.
She is also pledging to set out “reforms that will guarantee towns and cities outside London and the South East can benefit from new investment”.
Image: Chancellor Rachel Reeves will set out the government’s spending plans for the next three years. Pic: Reuters
Ms Reeves is expected to say: “This government is renewing Britain. But I know too many people in too many parts of the country are yet to feel it.
More on Money
Related Topics:
“This government’s task – my task – and the purpose of this spending review – is to change that … So that people can see a doctor when they need one. Know that they are secure at work. And feel safe on their local high street.
“The priorities in this spending review are the priorities of working people. To invest in our country’s security, health and economy so working people all over our country are better off.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:56
What to expect from the spending review
Watch live coverage of the spending review on Sky News from 12pm
Ms Reeves will formally confirm “the biggest-ever local transport infrastructure investment in England’s city regions” – worth £15.6bn – as well as £86bn to “boost science and technology”, including by building the Sizewell C nuclear power station.
She will also announce the extension of the £3 cap on bus fares, Sky News understands. The cap – which Labour lifted from £2 – was due to expire at the end of this year.
Meanwhile, £39bn for a new Affordable Homes Programme over the next 10 years is set to be unveiled, with the government seeking to ramp up housebuilding to hit its manifesto pledge of 1.5 million new homes by the end of this parliament.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
10:28
‘You are everyone’s worst enemy’
The chancellor will argue: “The choices in this spending review are possible only because of the stability I have introduced and the choices I took in the autumn.”
One of those choices included cutting the winter fuel allowance for almost all pensioners – a decision the government has now U-turned on at a cost of £1.25bn. However, she is not expected to explain where that money will come from until the budget this autumn.
Ms Reeves will tell MPs: “I have made my choices. In place of chaos, I choose stability. In place of decline, I choose investment. In place of retreat, I choose national renewal.
“These are my choices. These are this government’s choices. These are the British people’s choices.”
But shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said this will be “the ‘spend today, tax tomorrow’ spending review” – arguing that the government is “spending money it doesn’t have, with no credible plan to pay for it”.
He said in a statement: “Rachel Reeves talks about ‘hard choices’ – but her real choice has been to take the easy road. Spend more, borrow more, and cross her fingers. This spending review won’t be a plan for the future – it will be a dangerous gamble with Britain’s economic stability.”
He went on: “Today, we’ll hear slogans, spin and self-congratulation – but not the truth. Don’t be fooled. Behind the spin lies a dangerous economic gamble that risks the country’s financial future.”
The UK’s jobless rate ticked up to 4.6% in April while payrolled employment has fallen sharply since, according to official figures covering the period when budget tax hikes on businesses came into effect.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the new unemployment rate covering the three months to April was the highest since July 2021.
It had previously stood at 4.5% – a total of more than 1.6 million people.
At 4.6%, it is above the peak level predicted for this year, just in March, by the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Figures from the taxman also highlighted by the ONS showed the number of people in payrolled employment during May fell by 109,000 – double April’s revised figure of 55,000 and the biggest monthly drop in five years.
The ONS Labour Force Survey data was the first to cover April’s rises in employer national insurance contributions and the national living wage – hikes to costs for businesses which lobby groups had warned would result in job losses, price rises and lower wage settlements.
More on Uk Economy
Related Topics:
The ONS figures showed average weekly earnings, excluding the effects of bonuses, over the three months to April were weaker, from a downwardly revised 5.5% to 5.2% year on year.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:39
Cost of living impacts families
Liz McKeown, ONS director of economic statistics, said: “There continues to be weakening in the labour market, with the number of people on payroll falling notably.
“Feedback from our vacancies survey suggests some firms may be holding back from recruiting new workers or replacing people when they move on.”
The ONS data piles more pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves, just a day after she confirmed her winter fuel U-turn would cost £1.25bn.
She has consistently defenced her budget, arguing the taxes on business were a one-off necessary evil to account for a £22bn “black hole” in the public finances inherited from the last government.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:38
How big is winter fuel payments U-turn?
Employment minister Alison McGovern said in response to the data: “Six months after we launched Get Britain Working, we are already seeing the benefits with economic activity at a record high, with 500,000 more people in employment since we entered office and real wages growing more since July than in the decade after 2010.
“People all over the country are benefiting from increased training opportunities and the newly launched Jobs and Careers Service will allow us to test new and innovative approaches to personalise employment support.”
Despite the wage figure easing, that 5.2% level remains comfortably ahead of the 3.5% rate of the pace of price growth – inflation.
The curb to consumer spending power will be welcomed by the Bank of England as its rate-setters continue to fret that strong wage growth represents an inflation risk ahead.
The ONS figures did little to boost financial market expectations of a further rate cut next month.
LSEG data showed 90% of market participants believed there would be no no change – with just one further cut this year being fully priced in.