You might tut at sluggish GDP or sigh at labour market data, presuming you notice them at all, but inflation is the number you feel in your pocket.
This month the link could not be plainer. The headline rate of CPI inflation in April jumped 3.5% on the same time a year ago, up almost a percentage point on March, and driven largely by the timing of changes in household bills.
April is the start of the new financial year, and households do not need the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to tell them that means price rises.
Combined gas and electricity prices are up almost 7% and water bills more than 25% on average, and index-linked broadband and mobile phone increases kicked in too.
Add a council tax hike of 5%, not included in the CPI calculation, and Sky News analysis suggests an average annual increase of almost £500 for every household, inescapable for billpayers and awkward for a government that came to power promising to put more money in people’s pockets.
That case is harder to make when policy choices are considered inflationary.
The ONS pointed to increases in transport costs driven by vehicle excise duty – car tax – for both electric and internal combustion engine vehicles.
April also saw the introduction of increased employer National Insurance payments and a reduced threshold, along with a 6% increase in the minimum wage, welcome for employees but another pressure on business.
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5:33
‘Growth will come, but will take time’
Chancellor Rachel Reeves did not deny that these costs would weigh on employers and could impact prices, but remains steadfast that tax rises were necessary to stabilise the public finances she inherited.
She cited the potential impact of recent deals with the US, India and this week the EU to boost trade.
The good news is that this may be close to the peak of an inflation surge long anticipated by the Bank of England and, while wages continue to rise faster than prices, the rate of increase may be slowing down.
There are also some statistical factors that inflate the April figure a little too, primarily a late Easter (last year it fell in March) which pushed up spending on airfares, recreation and culture.
Having already cut rates twice this year the Bank says it remains committed to a “gradual” path for further reductions.
An industry body has warned that the equivalent of more than one pub a day is set to close across Great Britain this year.
According to the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA), an estimated 378 venues will shut down across England, Wales and Scotland.
This would amount to more than 5,600 direct job losses, the industry body warns. It has called for a reduction in the cumulative tax and regulatory burden for the hospitalitysector – including cutting business rates and beer duty.
The body – representing members that brew 90% of British beer and own more than 20,000 pubs – said such measures would slow the rate at which bars are closing.
BBPA chief executive Emma McClarkin said that while pubs are trading well, “most of the money that goes into the till goes straight back out in bills and taxes”.
“For many, it’s impossible to make a profit, which all too often leads to pubs turning off the lights for the last time,” she said.
“When a pub closes, it puts people out of a job, deprives communities of their heart and soul, and hurts the local economy.”
She urged the government to “proceed with meaningful business rates reform, mitigate these eye-watering new employment and EPR (extended producer responsibility) costs, and cut beer duty”.
“We’re not asking for special treatment, we just want the sector’s rich potential unleashed,” she added.
The government has said it plans to reform the current business rates system, saying in March that an interim report on the measure would be published this summer.
From April, relief on property tax – that came in following the COVID-19 pandemic – was cut from 75% to 40%, leading to higher bills for hospitality, retail and leisure businesses.
The rate of employer National Insurance Contributions also rose from 13.8% to 15% that month, and the wage threshold was lowered from £9,100 to £5,000, under measures announced by Rachel Reeves in the October budget.
Donald Trump has revealed a list of more nations set to face delayed ‘liberation day’ tariffs from 1 August.
He has threatened tariffs of 30% on Algeria, 25% on Brunei, 30% on Iraq, 30% on Libya, 25% on Moldova and 20% on the Philippines. Sri Lanka was later told it faced a 30% duty.
Letters setting out the planned rates – and warning against retaliation – are being sent to the leaders of each country.
They were the latest to be informed of the president‘s plans after Japan and South Korea were among the first 14 nations to be told of the rates they must pay on their general exports to the US from 1 August.
The duties are on top of sectoral tariffs, covering areas such as steel and cars, already in place.
Mr Trump further warned, on Tuesday, that a 50% tariff rate on all copper imports to the US was looming.
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He has also threatened a 200% rate on pharmaceuticals and is also expected to take aim at all imports of semiconductors too.
The European Union, America’s largest trading partner in combined trade, services and investment, is expected to get a letter within the next 48 hours unless further progress is made in continuing talks.
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2:49
Who will be positively impacted by the UK-US trade deal?
The bloc, which Mr Trump has previously claimed was created to “screw” the US, has been in negotiations with US officials for weeks and working to agree a UK-style truce by the end of the month.
The EU has retaliatory tariffs ready to deploy from 14 July but it is widely expected to delay them until such time that any heightened US duties are imposed.
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2:45
Trump to visit UK ‘in weeks’
It remains hopeful of a deal in the coming days but European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament: “We stick to our principles, we defend our interests, we continue to work in good faith, and we get ready for all scenarios.”
While the UK’s so-called deal with Mr Trump is now in force, it remains unclear whether steelmakers will have to pay a 50% tariff rate, deployed by the US against the rest of the world, as some final details on an exemption are yet to be worked out.
The value of its shares has risen by 409,825% since its market debut in 1999.
Its status has been cemented thanks to the rush for AI technology – suffering several wobbles along the way – but nothing significant when you refer to the percentage rise of the past 26 years.
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The most recent pressures have come from the emergence of the low-cost chatbot DeepSeek and concerns for global AI demand as a result of Donald Trump’s trade war hitting growth.
Financial markets have been taking a more risk-on approach to the trade war since the delays to “liberation day” tariffs in April.
It’s explained by a market trend that’s become known as the TACO trade: Trump always chickens out.
Image: The milestone is reported by Sky’s US partner CNBC, seen on screens at the New York Stock Exchange. Pic: Reuters
It has helped US stock markets post new record highs in recent days.
The wave of optimism is down to the fact that the president is yet to follow through with the worst of his threatened tariffs on trading partners.
Corporations are also yet to report big hits to their earnings – a fact that is also propping up demand for shares.
If Mr Trump does go all-out in his trade war, as he has now threatened from 1 August, then that $4trn market value for Nvidia – and wider stock markets – could be short-lived, at least in the short term.
But market analysts believe Nvidia’s value has further to go.
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said of its meteoric rise: “Once known for powering video games, NVIDIA has transformed into a foundational player in AI infrastructure.
“Its high-performance chips now drive everything from natural language processing to robotics, making them essential to training and deploying advanced AI models.
“Beyond hardware, its full-stack ecosystem – including software platforms and developer tools – helps companies scale AI quickly and efficiently. This end-to-end approach has positioned Nvidia as a cornerstone in a market where speed, scalability, and efficiency are critical.”
He added: “The key question is where it goes from here, and while it might seem strange for a company that’s just passed the $4trn mark, Nvidia still looks attractive.
“Growth is expected to slow, and it’s likely to lose some market share as competition and custom solutions ramp up. But trading at a relatively modest 32 times expected earnings, and over 50% top-line growth forecast this year, there’s still an attractive opportunity ahead.
“For investors, it remains a compelling way to gain exposure to the AI boom – not just as a participant, but as one of its architects.”