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The Detroit Tigers have continued their meteoric rise up our list … all the way to No. 1, usurping the Los Angeles Dodgers for the top spot in Week 8.

The Tigers, who started at No. 18 in our preseason rankings, continue to dominate the majors in 2025. You would have to go back maybe more than 10 years to find the last time they sat atop ESPN’s power rankings.

The St. Louis Cardinals join Detroit as another team on the rise this week, jumping up three spots to No. 12, as the Baltimore Orioles continue to collapse, dropping to No. 27 from their preseason ranking of sixth.

Where does every other MLB club stand ahead of Memorial Day?

Our expert panel has combined to rank every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Jesse Rogers, Jorge Castillo and Bradford Doolittle to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.

Week 7 | Preseason rankings


1. Detroit Tigers

Record: 33-17
Previous ranking: 3

Plenty is going right for the Tigers: the resurgence of Javier Baez … in center field; Tarik Skubal‘s sterling defense of his AL Cy Young Award; former No. 1 picks Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize finding their way; and the bullpen’s dominance. Lost in those headlines is Gleyber Torres having a solid season, continuing where he left off down the stretch in 2024 with the Yankees. The second baseman is batting .281 with five home runs and an .794 OPS. If that production continues, the 28-year-old Torres, who signed a one-year deal for $15 million, will be in line for a multiyear contract next offseason. — Castillo


2. Los Angeles Dodgers

Record: 31-19
Previous ranking: 1

The Dodgers’ 18 comeback wins are the most in the majors. But the story behind all those rallies is less about an emergent resilience and more about an injury-riddled starting rotation that has put the club in early holes too often. The Dodgers’ 4.30 rotation ERA ranks 23rd in the majors. That’s stunning enough but it’s worse when you look at the first inning, where L.A.’s 6.30 ERA ranks 28th. Amazingly, Cy Young candidate Yoshinobu Yamamoto has allowed just one first-inning earned run in 10 outings. The other Dodgers’ starters have a collective 7.65 first-inning ERA. — Doolittle


Record: 31-18
Previous ranking: 6

A torrid stretch that began in late April lifted the Phillies into first place in the NL East, positioning them for another postseason push. Alas, if Philadelphia does earn a spot in the NL bracket, closer Jose Alvarado won’t be there to help. He tested positive for PEDs, leading to a suspension that will cost him 80 regular-season games and postseason eligibility. The silver lining is that Jordan Romano, the Phillies’ new top option for saves, appears to have righted the ship after a ragged start. His spree of eight scoreless outings included four saves and a couple of holds. — Doolittle


Record: 29-19
Previous ranking: 5

The Subway Series was all about Juan Soto‘s return to Yankee Stadium, but it was Cody Bellinger, one of Soto’s replacements in the Bronx, who starred all weekend. The versatile former NL MVP went 7-for-11 with three walks, two doubles and two home runs, including a grand slam, in the three games. The Mets retired him just four times in his 14 plate appearances. The outburst is part of Bellinger’s turnaround since his sluggish start. Bellinger entered April 29 batting .194 with a .574 OPS and two home runs in 26 games. Since then, he’s slashing .357/.430/.686 with six homers in 18 games. — Castillo


Record: 30-20
Previous ranking: 2

A disappearing offense led to the Mets’ worst week of the season. They lost road series against the Yankees and Red Sox, dropping them out of first place in the NL East behind the Phillies. Soto’s numbers remain below his career standard, and that’s made some fans antsy. Pete Alonso‘s recent sudden cooling after a blistering start has sapped the heart of the Mets’ lineup. Through May 5, Alonso had a 1.143 OPS, 25 walks and 24 strikeouts. Since: a .414 OPS, three walks and 24 strikeouts over 14 games, seven of which the Mets have lost. — Doolittle


Record: 30-20
Previous ranking: 7

Since being dropped to eighth in the batting order at the end of April, Dansby Swanson is hitting close to .400 with an OPS over 1.000. He’s back up higher in the order as he’s seemingly figured things out after the slow start, raising his batting average from .185 to .262 in that time frame. It’s hard to know for sure but the lineup change may have helped him relax. Pitches he was swinging through previously, he’s now hitting with authority, making him a bigger part of a dangerous offensive attack in Chicago. — Rogers


Record: 27-20
Previous ranking: 4

A Padres’ rotation that has ranked in the top 10 by ERA all season should get even stronger soon with the impending return of Yu Darvish. Darvish pitched four innings in a rehab outing at the Triple-A level last week, but the exact date of his return remains unknown. According to reports, Darvish may join the team this weekend, even if he doesn’t make a start. The Padres can afford to be patient with him thanks to fill-in Stephen Kolek, who posted a 2.33 ERA over his first three outings. — Doolittle


Record: 28-20
Previous ranking: 9

Luis Castillo looked like his vintage self against the White Sox on Monday, pitching seven scoreless innings after doing nearly the same against the Yankees in his previous start. In three of his four outings this month, he’s totaled 19 innings while giving up just two runs. Castillo’s changeup isn’t nearly as valuable as it once was, but his other pitches are as good as ever, including his four-seam fastball, which batters are hitting just .189 off of. The Mariners will continue to lean on the longtime veteran as they deal with injuries to their rotation. — Rogers


Record: 29-21
Previous ranking: 8

The Giants moved Jordan Hicks to the bullpen this week. It was a surprise when the Giants signed Hicks (1-5, 6.60 ERA) as a starter instead of a reliever, and the gambit hasn’t worked out. He is 5-16 with a 4.91 over 37 career starts between the Giants and Cardinals. His ERA as a reliever is 3.73 and his strikeout rate is 1.1 more per nine innings in that role. Replacing Hicks in the rotation is Hayden Birdsong, who held the Royals to one unearned run over five frames in his first start. — Doolittle


Record: 27-22
Previous ranking: 16

The Twins won 13 straight games — the longest winning streak in the majors in 2025 — to erase a dismal start and plant themselves in the postseason picture before Memorial Day. But even that blistering stretch was accompanied by injury woes. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton landed on the seven-day concussion injured list Friday after the two collided while pursuing a shallow fly ball. Pitching has fueled the Twins’ turnaround — their staff is tied for fifth across the majors in ERA — but the club will need its stars healthy and productive to stay within striking distance of the Tigers in the competitive AL Central. — Castillo


Record: 26-24
Previous ranking: 11

The Diamondbacks have been a baseball version of a high-tempo basketball team. They are the only team in MLB scoring and allowing more than five runs per contest — and they would obviously like one of those trends to end. Improved pitching health would help, and there is hope on that front. Eduardo Rodriguez, A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez are on the IL but all have resumed throwing. Martinez has made a pair of rehab outings in the minors and topped 100 mph in his last appearance. — Doolittle


12. St. Louis Cardinals

Record: 27-23
Previous ranking: 15

The surge up the standings by the Cardinals has been partly due to a balanced lineup and a starting staff performing above expectations. Take Miles Mikolas, for example. In the past, he has given up more hits than innings pitched — but not this year. He has allowed 40 hits in 45⅓ innings with only two leaving the yard. That’s been a trend for the Cardinals this season, as their entire rotation has only given up 26 home runs, putting them among the league leaders in fewest allowed. Combine that with the return of hot hitting catcher Ivan Herrera, and St. Louis is keeping pace with the Cubs near the top of the NL Central. — Rogers


Record: 28-23
Previous ranking: 12

Starting pitching is the Royals’ strength, and the club’s quest to solidify its depth has led it to a very experienced option. Rich Hill, 45 years young, signed a minor league deal with Kansas City last week. He made his debut for the organization in the Arizona Complex League against the Cubs on Tuesday, striking out seven of the 12 batters he faced — none of which were born when he was drafted in 2002. He is expected to join Triple-A Omaha soon, and if he makes it to Kansas City, he will join Edwin Jackson as the only players to play for 14 major league teams. — Castillo


Record: 24-24
Previous ranking: 14

The Braves’ season has been a roller coaster, ranging from the heights of lofty preseason expectations to the lows of an 0-7 start before finally settling into MLB’s middle as Atlanta surpassed .500 for the first time last week. All of this before Memorial Day. Now the Braves are getting whole. Spencer Strider returned to the rotation this week and Ronald Acuña Jr. is getting close, though no specific date has been announced for his return. Acuña reached base in 13 of his first 22 plate appearances while on a rehab assignment. If that’s rust, the Braves will take it. — Doolittle


Record: 25-24
Previous ranking: 17

Framber Valdez might have found his rhythm in May. He has thrown 22 innings over his past three starts, giving up a total of five runs and striking out 22 while using his curveball more efficiently. Batters are hitting .224 off of it compared to .121 last season, but it’s still trending in the right direction compared to where he was last month. In his last outing Sunday, he threw 31 curveballs, producing 10 total swings-and-misses or called strikes to go with nine foul balls. Valdez is heating up. — Rogers


Record: 25-26
Previous ranking: 13

The uproar surrounding Rafael Devers‘ decision to not even entertain moving to first base isn’t bothering the man himself. Since May 8, the day he flatly said he will not make the switch from designated hitter, Devers is batting .413 with five home runs and a 1.331 OPS. He has hits in 10 of the 13 games and multiple hits in six of them. On Saturday, he delivered his first career walk-off home run against the Braves to snap Boston’s four-game losing streak. The Red Sox are stuck in neutral, hovering around .500, but Devers isn’t the issue. He has been designated to hit — and he’s doing just that. — Castillo


Record: 25-25
Previous ranking: 18

So how is the Bret Boone as hitting coach era going? There are mixed reviews as the Rangers still reside in the bottom third of the majors in OPS over the past couple of weeks — but they have shown signs of coming out of it. A nice five-win stretch in six games against the Tigers and Rockies helped vault them back into contention in the AL West, with the offense putting up three six-plus run outings over that span. Josh Jung has been hot since Boone came onboard, compiling an OPS over 1.000 in his past 11 games. Texas needs more of that from plenty of others in its lineup. — Rogers


Record: 26-22
Previous ranking: 10

Typically, the Guardians’ pitching staff has masked an average-to-below-average offense. But that isn’t the case in 2025: The pitching staff ranks 20th in ERA, which means Cleveland’s offense could use more juice.

Jose Ramirez (146 wRC+) is in All-Star form again. Steven Kwan is batting over .300 again. Daniel Schneemann (135 OPS+) has been a pleasant surprise. But Cleveland’s production in right field — by wRC+ — is the second worst in the majors, glove-first shortstop Brayan Rocchio was optioned to the minors last week after posting a .433 OPS and first baseman Carlos Santana had a .320 slugging percentage until homering in consecutive games this week. Travis Bazzanna, the No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft, was on track to possibly help this season, but he is expected to miss at least two months with a strained oblique. — Castillo


Record: 25-26
Previous ranking: 21

The Reds’ offense came alive last week with nine home runs over a seven-game span, and over half of those came off the bat of one player: Will Benson. He slugged five while driving in 10 runs to give Cincinnati some much-needed pop since being called up from Triple-A earlier this month. Benson was a first-round pick in 2016 but has been slow to reach his potential, hitting just .187 in 128 games last season. While he’s not much of a fastball hitter, he has been hitting the breaking stuff all over the park. He’s likely to see a diet of four-seamers moving forward. — Rogers


Record: 24-26
Previous ranking: 20

Two more shutouts at the plate — in back-to-back games against the Twins over the weekend — gave the Brewers six on the season as they continue to search for answers. Fortunately, the slumping Orioles can fix a team’s hitting woes, as Milwaukee broke out against them in a series win earlier this week. Perhaps 2024 MVP candidate William Contreras is finally getting hot — he’s had three multihit games in his past seven, including a four-hit affair against Baltimore on Monday. He’s a key cog in an offense that has been stuck in neutral too many times this season. All six shutouts have come since May 1. — Rogers


Record: 24-24
Previous ranking: 22

Bo Bichette is better resembling his All-Star form after going without a home run through April. The shortstop is slashing .276/.345/.513 with four home runs and six doubles in 18 games this month. He’s recorded multiple hits in seven games. In all, he owns a 115 wRC+ and has accumulated 0.9 fWAR. It’s a step in the right direction for Bichette, an impending free agent coming off a disastrous injury-plagued 2024 season in which he posted a 71 wRC+ and 0.3 fWAR in 81 games. — Castillo


Record: 23-26
Previous ranking: 23

Player development is rarely linear, and Junior Caminero is going through some struggles in his first full major league season. The former top prospect is batting .230 with a .662 OPS and 87 OPS+. He’s grounded into 14 double plays, which leads the majors by five, and has hit just two home runs in May. Defensively, his minus-7 outs above average and minus-7 defensive runs saved rank last among qualified third basemen. Caminero is still just 21 years old and has the skills for stardom. Right now, though, he’s going through growing pains for a Rays club that needs more oomph from the middle of the lineup. — Castillo


23. Athletics

Record: 22-28
Previous ranking: 19

Things have gone wrong on both sides of the ball for the A’s, who have scored just 16 runs while allowing 52 over their seven-game losing streak. Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker and Tyler Soderstrom have struggled during the skid. Is the dip a sign of things to come or just a bump in the road for the young Athletics? — Rogers


Record: 23-25
Previous ranking: 26

The highlight of the Angels’ season came this past weekend when they swept the host Dodgers while scorching their pitching staff with 23 runs in the three games. Most impressive was a wild, back-and-forth affair Saturday when the Angels scored five times in the seventh inning en route to an 11-9 win. Catcher Logan O’Hoppe continued to impress as he hit his 10th home run in that game. He added another one Tuesday against the Athletics, making him just the second catcher to reach double digits in home runs this season. — Rogers


Record: 22-27
Previous ranking: 25

When the Nationals acquired their mega package of prospects from the Padres in the 2022 Juan Soto trade, Robert Hassell III ranked alongside CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore and James Wood as major components of the deal. While the other three have justified their billing, it’s been slower going for Hassell, who was summoned to the majors for the first time Wednesday. He was needed after injuries to starting big league outfielders Dylan Crews and Jacob Young. It’s a golden opportunity for Hassell, whose numbers for Triple-A Rochester in 2025 were up across the board from last season. — Doolittle


Record: 19-29
Previous ranking: 28

The brightest spot for the Marlins has undoubtedly been the early play of rookie catcher/DH Agustin Ramirez, who has wielded a potent power bat during his first MLB stint. Though Ramirez didn’t debut in the majors until April 21, he ranks third on the Marlins with six homers and leads the club with a .567 slugging percentage. Only Washington’s Dylan Crews has more homers among rookies (7) and only Atlanta’s Drake Baldwin has a higher slug (.583). The promising start has thrust Ramirez into early NL Rookie of the Year chatter. — Doolittle


27. Baltimore Orioles

Record: 16-32
Previous ranking: 24

The Orioles are in shambles. Two weeks after general manager Mike Elias told reporters he was “very confident” in manager Brandon Hyde amid the club’s horrid start, Elias fired his skipper. The decision came the day after an ugly loss to the Nationals on Friday night, one in which they squandered a one-run lead in the last two innings. The move hasn’t changed the results. Baltimore lost the next four games under interim manager Tony Mansolino before winning Wednesday. A team with World Series aspirations before the season might have its playoff hopes dashed by Memorial Day. — Castillo


Record: 17-33
Previous ranking: 27

Nothing has gone right for Pittsburgh this season. After firing manager Derek Shelton, the Pirates got more bad news this week: Righty Jared Jones will undergo surgery on his elbow and miss the rest of the season. A setback in his rehab led to the decision to go under the knife, further putting a damper on the last-place Pirates. Jones and Paul Skenes were to be a dangerous 1-2 combo at the top of this year’s rotation, but instead Skenes will go it alone in 2025. Jones compiled a 4.14 ERA during a promising rookie season in 2024, but he’ll essentially start from scratch when he makes it back next year. — Rogers


Record: 15-35
Previous ranking: 29

Luis Robert Jr., coming off a disappointing 2024 season, has been so lousy that a contending team probably won’t give up much to acquire him before the trade deadline. Just ask him. Robert, through an interpreter, was candid to reporters Monday, telling them, “Right now, as my season is going, I don’t think anybody is going to take a chance on me.”

He’s probably right, and that’s a huge disappointment for the rebuilding White Sox. Robert was a ticket to another haul of young talent for their reset. But the center fielder, who has $20 million team options for each of the next two seasons, is batting just .178 with a .565 OPS in 46 games. That’s not good enough. — Castillo


Record: 8-41
Previous ranking: 30

If Colorado hoped that canning manager Bud Black would light a fire under the team, those aspirations were quickly dashed. The Rockies lost seven of their first eight under Warren Schaeffer, keeping them on pace for some ignominious outcomes — and not just the White Sox’s all-time loss record. Colorado is on pace to finish 74 games out of first place, which would shatter the all-time record. But wait, there’s more: The Rockies are also on pace to finish 58 games out of fourth place. They aren’t just in the basement, they are tunneling their way to the center of the Earth. — Doolittle

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Updated SP+ rankings for every FBS team, plus an early look at CFP contenders

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Updated SP+ rankings for every FBS team, plus an early look at CFP contenders

In 93 days, it all starts again. From Week 0’s Irish Farmageddon (Iowa State vs. Kansas State in Dublin) in mid-August to the national title game in late January, the 2025 college football season looms. And with transfer portal movement finally slowing down — including spring moves, FBS teams have averaged more than 19 transfers this offseason, up more than 40% from last season — we can finally take a semi-confident look at what’s in store this fall. That means updating our numbers.

Below are updated SP+ projections for the coming season. A quick reminder: Preseason projections are based on three factors.

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as humanly possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production makes up about two-thirds of the projections formula.

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). This is also impacted by the recruiting rankings of incoming transfers, an acknowledgment that the art of roster management is now heavily dictated by the transfer portal.

3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from the previous four seasons or so gives us a good measure of overall program health.

(One other reminder: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and along those lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather.)

Here are the updated rankings:

This time around, I am also experimenting with what you might call a fourth projection factor: coaching changes. Using data discussed in this March column, I have incorporated some adjustments based on who changed head coaches and/or offensive or defensive coordinators and how those teams performed against historic norms last year. Translation: For teams or units that underachieved significantly against their 20-year averages and changed coaches or coordinators (example: Oklahoma’s offense, Purdue’s entire team), that means a slight bump upward. For teams or units that overachieved and lost their coaches or coordinators (example: UNLV as a team or Louisiana Tech’s defense), that means a bump down.

The adjustments aren’t enormous, but when you see that Oklahoma’s projected rating has risen since February, that explains it.


Minimal changes near the top

Thirteen teams moved up or down at least 10 spots compared to February’s rankings, due to either transfer portal addition/attrition, the coaching adjustments mentioned above, or simply me getting a much better read on returning production after official roster releases. At the very top, however, not a ton changed. The top four teams from February continue to occupy the same spots, though Texas hopped Notre Dame and Oregon into the No. 5 hole. Clemson and Michigan rose a bit, Tennessee dropped five spots after Nico Iamaleava’s transfer, and Oklahoma eased into the top 15. (With their ridiculous schedule, however, the Sooners’ projected win total still isn’t great.)

The overall conference hierarchy hasn’t changed much either, though with the Sun Belt getting hit particularly hard by spring transfer attrition, the AAC moves into the top spot among Group of 5 conferences.

Average SP+ rating by conference

1. SEC (15.3 overall, 33.1 offense, 17.8 defense, 60.7% average returning production)

Top three teams: No. 2 Alabama, No. 4 Georgia, No. 5 Texas

2. Big Ten (9.5 overall, 29.1 offense, 19.6 defense, 56.7% average returning production)

Top three teams: No. 1 Ohio State, No. 3 Penn State, No. 7 Oregon

Both the SEC and Big Ten boast three of the projected top seven teams, but if we measure conferences by average ratings, the SEC still has a commanding lead due, as always, to the lack of dead weight. Only two of 16 SEC teams are projected lower than 43rd overall, while the Big Ten has six such teams, including three ranked 70th or worse. That helps explain why, despite playing only eight-game conference schedules, SEC teams occupy 13 of the top 15 spots in the strength of schedule rankings.

3. Big 12 (6.3 overall, 31.0 offense, 24.7 defense, 61.8% average returning production)

Top three teams: No. 18 Kansas State, No. 22 Arizona State, No. 26 Texas Tech

4. ACC (5.0 overall, 30.8 offense, 25.8 defense, 59.2% average returning production)

Top three teams: No. 8 Clemson, No. 12 Miami, No. 20 SMU

We see a similar dynamic with the Big 12 and ACC — in terms of the quality of its top teams, the ACC (three top-20 teams) seems to have an advantage over the Big 12 (one top-20 team). But the Big 12 has eight top-35 teams compared to the ACC’s four, and while no Big 12 team is projected lower than 66th, the ACC’s average is dragged down by three teams ranking 79th or lower.

5. AAC (-7.8 overall, 26.0 offense, 33.8 defense, 49.4% average returning production)

Top three teams: No. 48 Tulane, No. 53 Memphis, No. 63 UTSA

6. Sun Belt (-8.1 overall, 24.9 offense, 33.0 defense, 46.3% average returning production)

Top three teams: No. 49 James Madison, No. 74 Louisiana, No. 76 South Alabama

7. Mountain West (-8.6 overall, 23.5 offense, 32.1 defense, 46.5% average returning production)

Top three teams: No. 33 Boise State, No. 75 UNLV, No. 83 San Jose State

Three G5 teams are within one point of each other on average, though again, the distribution varies significantly by conference. The MWC is propped up significantly by Boise State, the best projected G5 team, but its average is dragged down by three teams ranking 119th or worse. The Sun Belt has only one such team. The AAC, meanwhile, has a solid five teams in the top 70 … and four teams projected 120th or worse.

8. Conference USA (-13.0 overall, 20.4 offense, 33.4 defense, 50.7% average returning production)

Top three teams: No. 69 Liberty, No. 85 Western Kentucky, No. 104 Jacksonville State

9. MAC (-13.7 overall, 19.8 offense, 33.5 defense, 41.1% average returning production)

Top three teams: No. 72 Toledo, No. 80 Ohio, No. 91 Buffalo

No conference was hit harder by the portal than the MAC, which has only three teams ranked higher than 94th in the returning production rankings below. That’s going to wreck your averages, though Toledo and Buffalo both escaped too much damage in this regard.


An approximate CFP contenders list

My SP+ strength of schedule ratings are based on a simple question: How would the average top-five team fare against your schedule? Oklahoma’s schedule currently features five of the projected top 11 teams and nine of the top 25, while Notre Dame’s features only two teams projected higher than 30th; SP+ SOS says a top-five team would average a 0.757 win percentage against OU’s schedule (equivalent to 9.1 wins in 12 games) and a 0.894 win percentage against Notre Dame’s (10.7 wins). That’s a pretty big difference.

Schedule strengths obviously vary quite a bit within conferences — not every SEC schedule is Oklahoma’s — but it’s worth acknowledging that when it comes to potential College Football Playoff-worthy résumés, the bar can be set in a different spot based on a team’s conference.

Average strength-of-schedule rating per conference

SEC 0.799 (9.6 wins for a typical top-five team)

Big Ten 0.846 (10.2)

ACC 0.891 (10.7)

Big 12 0.902 (10.8)

AAC 0.956 (11.5)

Sun Belt 0.958 (11.5)

MWC 0.959 (11.5)

CUSA 0.964 (11.6)

MAC 0.965 (11.6)

When it comes to how a top-five team would fare, the average SEC schedule is about one win harder than the average ACC or Big 12 schedule. The Big Ten, with its deadweight teams, is about a half-win harder than those leagues but is still more likely to get lumped in with the SEC than the others in the Power 4.

Long story short: We can confidently say that any 10-2 or better team in the SEC or Big Ten would be a likely playoff contender, just as any 11-1 or better team in the ACC or Big 12 would be. We can therefore create a loose list of likely CFP contenders by looking at the teams most likely to hit those marks.

Odds of an SEC team going 10-2 or better: Alabama 65% (SOS rank: 11th), Texas 61% (12th), Georgia 61% (13th), Ole Miss 38% (23rd), Tennessee 33% (24th), LSU 30% (ninth), Florida 18% (second), Auburn 13% (15th), Oklahoma 9% (first), Missouri 5% (25th)

Odds of a Big Ten team going 10-2 or better: Penn State 82% (SOS rank: 29th), Ohio State 77% (21st), Oregon 73% (32nd), Michigan 62% (38th), Illinois 29% (40th), Nebraska 13% (35th), USC 10% (20th), Indiana 9% (31st)

With a particularly weak nonconference schedule and a particularly good team, Penn State might be in the driver’s seat in terms of playoff qualification, while Ohio State, Oregon, Alabama, Michigan and Georgia are all over 60% likely to finish the regular season with two or fewer losses.

Odds of a Big 12 or ACC team (or Notre Dame) going 11-1 or better: Notre Dame 52% (SOS rank: 44th), Clemson 37% (34th), Miami 23% (36th), Kansas State 17% (57th), BYU 7% (64th), Texas Tech 7% (62nd), SMU 6% (45th), Arizona State 5% (61st)

Odds of a Group of 5 team going 11-1 or better: Boise State 37% (SOS rank: 84th), Liberty 17% (136th), Toledo 11% (133rd), Memphis 8% (121st), James Madison 7% (104th)

Notre Dame starts the season with games against Miami and Texas A&M, and while the rest of the schedule features plenty of solid opponents (five are projected between 30th and 47th), if the Irish are 2-0 out of the gates, they’re staring a second straight CFP appearance in the face.


Updated returning production rankings

With updated SP+ projections come updated returning production figures. A reminder: While returning production doesn’t correlate with pure quality, it does correlate well with improvement and regression, particularly at the extremes.

(Note: The production of incoming transfers is mashed into both the numerator and denominator of the returning production formula — so if you lose your starting quarterback but bring in someone else’s from the portal, your returning yardage is probably somewhere around 50%. The production of transfers from schools below the FBS level get half-credit.)

As was the case in February, Clemson leads the way here. And with the way that talent trickles upward in the transfer portal era, it’s probably not a surprise that nine of the top 10 teams in returning production (and 22 of the top 26) are power-conference teams. The P4 boasts 59.6% returning production overall, while the G5 is at 46.8%. That’s a pretty massive gap, one that isn’t likely to shrink anytime soon.

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Rebuilding Blackhawks hire Blashill as head coach

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Rebuilding Blackhawks hire Blashill as head coach

Jeff Blashill has been hired as coach of the Chicago Blackhawks, it was announced Thursday.

The veteran bench boss steps in to replace interim coach Anders Sorenson, who was promoted after the Blackhawks fired Luke Richardson early in the 2024-25 season. Sorenson was thought to be a candidate for the permanent role, and Chicago had also shown interest in University of Denver coach David Carle.

The Blackhawks ultimately landed on Blashill to be the 42nd head coach in franchise history. Blashill, 51, most recently spent three seasons as an assistant coach on Jon Cooper’s staff with the Tampa Bay Lightning. He previously replaced Mike Babcock to take on his first NHL head coaching job with the Detroit Red Wings from 2015 to ’22, attempting to guide Detroit through a lengthy rebuilding process.

After reaching the playoffs in his first year with the Red Wings, Blashill’s teams never improved beyond fifth in the division and, after six consecutive seasons outside the playoff field, he was fired following the 2021-22 campaign. He left the Red Wings with a 204-261-72 record.

Blashill now joins another organization deep into a rebuilding process, providing experience that Chicago has been lacking. The Blackhawks have churned through four different first-year NHL head coaches — Jeremy Colliton, Derek King, Richardson and Sorenson — since Joel Quenneville’s departure in 2018, and now they’ve targeted a new voice with a developmental background.

Blashill has worked in the NCAA, USHL and AHL throughout his career. His time spent under Cooper — the NHL’s longest-tenured head coach — is another asset.

“Jeff is an incredibly smart and talented coach who boasts more than 25 years of coaching experience across developmental leagues, the NHL and the world stage,” general manager Kyle Davidson said in a statement. “He’s thrived when in a position to develop young players and has shown he’s capable of blending that into overall team success, a vision and philosophy we share for where we are today and where we see our team in the future. We couldn’t be more excited for what’s to come under Jeff’s direction.”

The Blackhawks haven’t been to the postseason since 2017, but they didn’t begin their retooling in earnest until the 2021-22 season. Davidson has been at the helm of Chicago’s rebuild since October 2021 and remains in the thick of it, as Chicago has finished 31st overall in the league standings the past two seasons. The Blackhawks have focused on growing through the NHL draft, and selected phenom Connor Bedard first overall in 2023.

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Hurricanes-Panthers Game 2 preview: Key players, matchup notes, stats to know

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Hurricanes-Panthers Game 2 preview: Key players, matchup notes, stats to know

Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals went about as well as it could have for the Florida Panthers. For the Carolina Hurricanes? Not so much.

Following a 5-2 win, the Panthers carry a 1-0 advantage into Game 2 (8 p.m. ET, TNT) on Thursday night.

Will the Hurricanes punch back before the series heads to South Florida? Which players will be most critical to each team’s success? Here are key players, matchup notes and stats to know from ESPN Research ahead of Game 2.

More: Game 1 recap | Grades

Matchup notes

Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes
Game 2 | 8 p.m. ET | TNT

With the Panthers up 1-0, they are now -250 favorites to win the Eastern Conference finals, while the Hurricanes are +200, per ESPN BET. The Panthers now have the shortest odds to win the Stanley Cup, at +160, while the Canes have the longest, at +500.

The Panthers have scored 38 goals on the road this postseason, tied with the 2022 Avalanche for the most through a team’s first eight road games of a single postseason. They are outscoring opponents 17-4 on the road over their last three road contests. The 17 goals are their most in a three-game span on the road in a single postseason in franchise history

The Game 1 defeat was the Hurricanes’ 13th straight loss in the conference finals, going back to 2009. This extends the longest streak in NHL history for losses in the round before Stanley Cup Final; the next highest was the Toronto Maple Leafs with 10 straight losses between 1954-56.

Aaron Ekblad‘s goal in Game 1 gives the Panthers 12 from their defensemen this postseason. That is four more than any other team, and ties the franchise record for most in a single playoff run (both 2023 and 2024).

With goal No. 7 of the postseason, Sam Bennett became the third Panther to score seven or more goals in consecutive playoff runs, joining Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Reinhart (who both accomplished it in 2023 and 2024).

The Hurricanes’ penalty kill was a strength leading into the conference finals — they allowed two power-play goals on 30 chances. That wasn’t the case in Game 1, as they allowed two goals on three chances.

Sebastian Aho joined an impressive list with his Game 1 goal: He is now tied for the most goals in series-opening games in Whalers/Hurricanes history (with five). The others on the list are Ray Whitney, Andrei Svechnikov and his head coach, Rod Brind’Amour.


Current scoring leaders

GP: 11 | G: 4 | A: 8

GP: 13 | G: 4 | A: 9

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