Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
In 93 days, it all starts again. From Week 0’s Irish Farmageddon (Iowa State vs. Kansas State in Dublin) in mid-August to the national title game in late January, the 2025 college football season looms. And with transfer portal movement finally slowing down — including spring moves, FBS teams have averaged more than 19 transfers this offseason, up more than 40% from last season — we can finally take a semi-confident look at what’s in store this fall. That means updating our numbers.
Below are updated SP+ projections for the coming season. A quick reminder: Preseason projections are based on three factors.
1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as humanly possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production makes up about two-thirds of the projections formula.
2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). This is also impacted by the recruiting rankings of incoming transfers, an acknowledgment that the art of roster management is now heavily dictated by the transfer portal.
3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from the previous four seasons or so gives us a good measure of overall program health.
(One other reminder: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and along those lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather.)
Here are the updated rankings:
This time around, I am also experimenting with what you might call a fourth projection factor: coaching changes. Using data discussed in this March column, I have incorporated some adjustments based on who changed head coaches and/or offensive or defensive coordinators and how those teams performed against historic norms last year. Translation: For teams or units that underachieved significantly against their 20-year averages and changed coaches or coordinators (example: Oklahoma’s offense, Purdue’s entire team), that means a slight bump upward. For teams or units that overachieved and lost their coaches or coordinators (example: UNLV as a team or Louisiana Tech’s defense), that means a bump down.
The adjustments aren’t enormous, but when you see that Oklahoma’s projected rating has risen since February, that explains it.
Minimal changes near the top
Thirteen teams moved up or down at least 10 spots compared to February’s rankings, due to either transfer portal addition/attrition, the coaching adjustments mentioned above, or simply me getting a much better read on returning production after official roster releases. At the very top, however, not a ton changed. The top four teams from February continue to occupy the same spots, though Texas hopped Notre Dame and Oregon into the No. 5 hole. Clemson and Michigan rose a bit, Tennessee dropped five spots after Nico Iamaleava’s transfer, and Oklahoma eased into the top 15. (With their ridiculous schedule, however, the Sooners’ projected win total still isn’t great.)
The overall conference hierarchy hasn’t changed much either, though with the Sun Belt getting hit particularly hard by spring transfer attrition, the AAC moves into the top spot among Group of 5 conferences.
Top three teams: No. 2 Alabama, No. 4 Georgia, No. 5 Texas
2. Big Ten (9.5 overall, 29.1 offense, 19.6 defense, 56.7% average returning production)
Top three teams: No. 1 Ohio State, No. 3 Penn State, No. 7 Oregon
Both the SEC and Big Ten boast three of the projected top seven teams, but if we measure conferences by average ratings, the SEC still has a commanding lead due, as always, to the lack of dead weight. Only two of 16 SEC teams are projected lower than 43rd overall, while the Big Ten has six such teams, including three ranked 70th or worse. That helps explain why, despite playing only eight-game conference schedules, SEC teams occupy 13 of the top 15 spots in the strength of schedule rankings.
3. Big 12 (6.3 overall, 31.0 offense, 24.7 defense, 61.8% average returning production)
Top three teams: No. 18 Kansas State, No. 22 Arizona State, No. 26 Texas Tech
Top three teams: No. 8 Clemson, No. 12 Miami, No. 20 SMU
We see a similar dynamic with the Big 12 and ACC — in terms of the quality of its top teams, the ACC (three top-20 teams) seems to have an advantage over the Big 12 (one top-20 team). But the Big 12 has eight top-35 teams compared to the ACC’s four, and while no Big 12 team is projected lower than 66th, the ACC’s average is dragged down by three teams ranking 79th or lower.
Top three teams: No. 48 Tulane, No. 53 Memphis, No. 63 UTSA
6. Sun Belt (-8.1 overall, 24.9 offense, 33.0 defense, 46.3% average returning production)
Top three teams: No. 49 James Madison, No. 74 Louisiana, No. 76 South Alabama
7. Mountain West (-8.6 overall, 23.5 offense, 32.1 defense, 46.5% average returning production)
Top three teams: No. 33 Boise State, No. 75 UNLV, No. 83 San Jose State
Three G5 teams are within one point of each other on average, though again, the distribution varies significantly by conference. The MWC is propped up significantly by Boise State, the best projected G5 team, but its average is dragged down by three teams ranking 119th or worse. The Sun Belt has only one such team. The AAC, meanwhile, has a solid five teams in the top 70 … and four teams projected 120th or worse.
8. Conference USA (-13.0 overall, 20.4 offense, 33.4 defense, 50.7% average returning production)
Top three teams: No. 69 Liberty, No. 85 Western Kentucky, No. 104 Jacksonville State
9. MAC (-13.7 overall, 19.8 offense, 33.5 defense, 41.1% average returning production)
Top three teams: No. 72 Toledo, No. 80 Ohio, No. 91 Buffalo
No conference was hit harder by the portal than the MAC, which has only three teams ranked higher than 94th in the returning production rankings below. That’s going to wreck your averages, though Toledo and Buffalo both escaped too much damage in this regard.
An approximate CFP contenders list
My SP+ strength of schedule ratings are based on a simple question: How would the average top-five team fare against your schedule? Oklahoma’s schedule currently features five of the projected top 11 teams and nine of the top 25, while Notre Dame’s features only two teams projected higher than 30th; SP+ SOS says a top-five team would average a 0.757 win percentage against OU’s schedule (equivalent to 9.1 wins in 12 games) and a 0.894 win percentage against Notre Dame’s (10.7 wins). That’s a pretty big difference.
Schedule strengths obviously vary quite a bit within conferences — not every SEC schedule is Oklahoma’s — but it’s worth acknowledging that when it comes to potential College Football Playoff-worthy résumés, the bar can be set in a different spot based on a team’s conference.
Average strength-of-schedule rating per conference
SEC 0.799 (9.6 wins for a typical top-five team)
Big Ten 0.846 (10.2)
ACC 0.891 (10.7)
Big 12 0.902 (10.8)
AAC 0.956 (11.5)
Sun Belt 0.958 (11.5)
MWC 0.959 (11.5)
CUSA 0.964 (11.6)
MAC 0.965 (11.6)
When it comes to how a top-five team would fare, the average SEC schedule is about one win harder than the average ACC or Big 12 schedule. The Big Ten, with its deadweight teams, is about a half-win harder than those leagues but is still more likely to get lumped in with the SEC than the others in the Power 4.
Long story short: We can confidently say that any 10-2 or better team in the SEC or Big Ten would be a likely playoff contender, just as any 11-1 or better team in the ACC or Big 12 would be. We can therefore create a loose list of likely CFP contenders by looking at the teams most likely to hit those marks.
Odds of an SEC team going 10-2 or better: Alabama 65% (SOS rank: 11th), Texas 61% (12th), Georgia 61% (13th), Ole Miss 38% (23rd), Tennessee 33% (24th), LSU 30% (ninth), Florida 18% (second), Auburn 13% (15th), Oklahoma 9% (first), Missouri 5% (25th)
Odds of a Big Ten team going 10-2 or better: Penn State 82% (SOS rank: 29th), Ohio State 77% (21st), Oregon 73% (32nd), Michigan 62% (38th), Illinois 29% (40th), Nebraska 13% (35th), USC 10% (20th), Indiana 9% (31st)
With a particularly weak nonconference schedule and a particularly good team, Penn State might be in the driver’s seat in terms of playoff qualification, while Ohio State, Oregon, Alabama, Michigan and Georgia are all over 60% likely to finish the regular season with two or fewer losses.
Odds of a Big 12 or ACC team (or Notre Dame) going 11-1 or better: Notre Dame 52% (SOS rank: 44th), Clemson 37% (34th), Miami 23% (36th), Kansas State 17% (57th), BYU 7% (64th), Texas Tech 7% (62nd), SMU 6% (45th), Arizona State 5% (61st)
Odds of a Group of 5 team going 11-1 or better: Boise State 37% (SOS rank: 84th), Liberty 17% (136th), Toledo 11% (133rd), Memphis 8% (121st), James Madison 7% (104th)
Notre Dame starts the season with games against Miami and Texas A&M, and while the rest of the schedule features plenty of solid opponents (five are projected between 30th and 47th), if the Irish are 2-0 out of the gates, they’re staring a second straight CFP appearance in the face.
Updated returning production rankings
With updated SP+ projections come updated returning production figures. A reminder: While returning production doesn’t correlate with pure quality, it does correlate well with improvement and regression, particularly at the extremes.
(Note: The production of incoming transfers is mashed into both the numerator and denominator of the returning production formula — so if you lose your starting quarterback but bring in someone else’s from the portal, your returning yardage is probably somewhere around 50%. The production of transfers from schools below the FBS level get half-credit.)
As was the case in February, Clemson leads the way here. And with the way that talent trickles upward in the transfer portal era, it’s probably not a surprise that nine of the top 10 teams in returning production (and 22 of the top 26) are power-conference teams. The P4 boasts 59.6% returning production overall, while the G5 is at 46.8%. That’s a pretty massive gap, one that isn’t likely to shrink anytime soon.
It’s win-or-go-home Thursday in the MLB wild-card round!
After losing their series openers, the Cleveland Guardians, San Diego Padres and New York Yankees all rebounded with Game 2 wins on Wednesday — setting up a dramatic day with three winner-take-all Game 3s. It’s only the second time in baseball history to host three winner-takes-all playoff games in one day.
Who has the edge with division series berths on the line? We’ve got you covered with pregame lineups, sights and sounds from the ballparks and postgame takeaways as each matchup ends.
One thing that will decide Game 3: Perhaps it’s a wide brush, but Detroit’s ability to get the ball in play and convert scoring opportunities into actual runs — or not — is likely to decide Thursday’s game. The Tigers have managed to get quality at-bats early in innings and generate plenty of traffic on the bags, but they’ve been completely unable to turn those scoring chances into runs. Their 15 runners left on base in Game 2 was a record for a franchise whose postseason history dates back to 1907. Over three potential elimination games going back to last year’s ALDS matchup, the Tigers are a combined 3-for-38 (.079) with runners in scoring position. That must change or Detroit will be done. — Bradford Doolittle
One thing that will decide Game 3: Look, this is going to be a battle of the bullpens. Yu Darvish and Jameson Taillon are both going to be on a very quick hook, even if they’re pitching well. But the difference might be which of those starters can get 14 or 15 outs instead of 10 or 11, especially for the Padres given that Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller both pitched in Games 1 and 2 and might have limited availability.
Darvish had a reputation early in his career as someone who couldn’t handle the pressure of a big game, but he has turned that around and has a 2.56 ERA in his six postseason starts with the Padres. Taillon, meanwhile, was terrific down the stretch with the Cubs, with a 1.57 ERA in six starts after coming off the IL in August. This looks like another low-scoring game in which the team that hits a home run will have the edge. — Schoenfield
One thing that will decide Game 3: Whether Connelly Early can give the Red Sox some length. Alex Cora’s aggressive decision to pull the plug on Brayan Bello’s start after just 28 pitches in Game 2 led to him using six Red Sox relievers. Garrett Whitlock, Boston’s best reliever not named Aroldis Chapman, threw 48 pitches. Chapman didn’t enter the game but warmed up for the possibility. Left-hander Kyle Harrison, a starter during the regular season, and right-hander Greg Weissert were the only pitchers in Boston’s bullpen not used in the first two games. Early doesn’t need to last seven innings. Harrison, who hasn’t pitched since last Friday, could cover multiple innings. But a quick departure would make the night very difficult for the Red Sox’s bullpen against a potent Yankees lineup. — Jorge Castillo
ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the L.A. Rams for ESPN from 2016 to 2018 and the L.A. Angels for MLB.com from 2012 to 2016.
LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers felt they addressed any concerns about the state of their team over the final three weeks of the regular season, reeling off 15 wins in 20 games. But in case there was any doubt, they displayed their full might in two wild-card matchups against the Cincinnati Reds, the last of which, an 8-4 victory Wednesday night, advanced them into the National League Division Series.
Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, half of a four-man rotation the Dodgers will ride in their pursuit of another title, combined to give up two earned runs in 13⅔ innings. Ten batters, meanwhile, accumulated 28 hits, 15 of which came courtesy of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez, the top half of what is still widely considered the sport’s deepest lineup. In the end, even a weary bullpen — a hindrance throughout the summer and a potential obstacle in the fall — received a much-needed boost.
Roki Sasaki, the prized rookie Japanese starting pitcher who became a reliever after finally recapturing his velocity last month, checked in for the top of the ninth inning and flummoxed the Reds with triple-digit fastballs and mind-bending splitters.
In the dugout, teammates howled.
Later, in the midst of a champagne-soaked celebration, many of them were still in awe.
“That guy is gross,” Dodgers reliever Tanner Scott said.
“Wow,” third baseman Max Muncy added. “All I can say is wow.”
The Dodgers, forced to play in the best-of-three wild-card series for the first time, have advanced to the division series for the 13th consecutive year, tied with the 1995-2007 New York Yankees for the longest streak since the round was introduced. They will now travel to face the Philadelphia Phillies, who beat them in two of three games at Dodger Stadium in the middle of September.
Taking the ball in Game 1 on Saturday, with game time still undetermined, will be Ohtani.
“I know that Sho will revel being in that environment and pitching in Game 1,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said. “I think we have a really talented rotation. I think it’s going to be a strength for us if we go forward.”
It was obvious Tuesday, when Snell varied the velocity on his changeups while allowing two baserunners through the first six innings. And it was obvious Wednesday, when Yamamoto pitched into the seventh inning without giving up an earned run.
The Reds took an early 2-0 lead when Hernandez dropped a fly ball with two outs in the first and 21-year-old rookie Sal Stewart followed with a two-run single. From there, Yamamoto retired 13 consecutive batters, five via strikeout. The Reds loaded the bases against him with no outs in the sixth while trailing by a run, but Yamamoto somehow wiggled free, getting Austin Hays to ground into a force at home and striking out Stewart and Elly De La Cruz, both on curveballs.
Twenty-two months ago, the Dodgers lavished Yamamoto with the largest contract ever awarded to a starting pitcher. He languished through most of the 2024 regular season, finally rounded into form in the playoffs and followed by putting together a Cy Young-caliber season in 2025. Over his last five regular-season starts, he gave up three runs in 34 innings. That dominance has carried over into October.
“He’s shown why he got the contract that he got,” Muncy said. “It’s really impressive to be behind him. You feed off it.”
The Dodgers offense took off for four runs immediately after Yamamoto stranded the bases loaded, stringing together four hits and cycling through 10 hitters. Just like in Game 1, it seemed as if the team would cruise to victory. And just like in Game 1, the bullpen made it far more interesting than it should have been.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts sent Yamamoto back out for the seventh and watched him throw a career-high 113 pitches in hopes of putting less of a burden on his relievers. It bought him two extra outs before Roberts turned to Blake Treinen to end the inning.
But the eighth was once again a struggle. Twenty-four hours after watching the Reds score three runs off Alex Vesia, Edgardo Henriquez and Jack Dreyer in Tuesday’s eighth inning, Roberts turned to Emmet Sheehan, the young starting pitcher who has made a case as the Dodgers’ best bullpen weapon in these playoffs, and hoped for a smoother ride.
Sheehan allowed the first four batters to reach. He gave up a sacrifice fly to Tyler Stephenson then got ahead in the count 0-2 against Will Benson and threw a slider that nearly hit him.
Roberts had seen enough. With two on, one out, the count 1-2 and two runs already across, he approached the mound, shared a word with Sheehan then called on Vesia. Sheehan became the first pitcher to be pulled from a postseason game in the middle of an at-bat with two strikes since Game 5 of the 2021 NL Championship Series, when Roberts replaced an injured Joe Kelly with Evan Phillips.
“I trust him,” Roberts said of Sheehan. “It was his first real crack at kind of late leverage. He wasn’t sharp, but I believe in him.”
Vesia, a left-hander, struck out right-handed pinch hitter Miguel Andujar with a first-pitch fastball then walked Matt McLain and retired TJ Friedl with a slider low and away to end the threat. An inning later, Sasaki came out of the bullpen, befuddled the Reds’ hitters, recorded three quick outs and, depending on what happens in the ensuing weeks, might have changed the complexion of the pitching staff.
A month ago, the Dodgers were languishing. Their offense was inconsistent, their rotation was only beginning to round into form, and their bullpen was a mess.
Now, it seems, they’re bullish.
“I think we can win it all,” Roberts said when asked how far he believes his team can go. “I think we’re equipped to do that. We certainly have the pedigree. We certainly have the hunger. We’re playing great baseball. And in all honesty, I don’t care who we play. I just want to be the last team standing.”
ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
NEW YORK — Back in the starting lineup one night after he was benched for matchup purposes, Jazz Chisholm Jr. put together a season-saving performance for the New York Yankees on Wednesday night with dynamic displays of athleticism on both sides of the ball that fueled a 4-3 win over the Boston Red Sox in Game 2 of the American League Wild Card Series.
Chisholm made a crucial run-saving play with his glove in the seventh inning and hustled all the way from first base on Austin Wells‘ single to score the tiebreaking run in the eighth inning to help the Red Sox force a decisive Game 3 on Thursday.
It will be the fourth winner-take-all postseason game between the Yankees and Red Sox, and the first since the 2021 AL wild card, a one-game format won by Boston.
“Anything to help us win,” Chisholm said. “All that was clear before I came to the field today. After I left the field yesterday, it is win the next game. It is win or go home for us. It is all about winning.”
A mainstay in the lineup all season at second base, Chisholm was left off their starting nine in Game 1 against left-hander Garrett Crochet before entering the loss late as a defensive replacement.
Afterward, Chisholm took questions about manager Aaron Boone’s decision to bench him with his back turned to reporters. It was a poor attempt to conceal his disdain, one that Boone was asked about before Wednesday’s do-or-die Game 2.
“Wasn’t necessarily how I [would’ve] handled it, but I don’t need him to put a happy face on,” Boone said before the game. “I need him to go out and play his butt off for us tonight. That’s what I expect to happen.”
What happened was a clutch effort that kept the Yankees’ season alive.
In the seventh inning, with the score tied and runners on first and second for the Red Sox, Masataka Yoshida hit a ground ball to Chisholm’s right side off Yankees reliever Fernando Cruz that appeared headed to right field to give Boston the lead. Instead, Chisholm made a diving stop. His throw to first base was late and bounced away from first baseman Ben Rice, but Red Sox third base coach Kyle Hudson held Nate Eaton and Chisholm’s effort prevented the run from scoring.
“That was the game right there,” Cruz said. “I think that was the play of the game. There’s some stuff that goes unnoticed sometimes, but I want to make sure it’s mentioned. Jazz saved us the game. Completely.”
An inning later, after Cruz escaped the bases-loaded jam and erupted with a rousing display of emotions, Chisholm worked a seven-pitch, two-out walk against Garrett Whitlock. The plate appearance changed the game.
Wells followed by getting to another full count to give Chisholm the green light at first base. With Chisholm running on the pitch, Wells lined a changeup from Whitlock that landed just inside the right-field line. Chisholm, boosted with his running start, darted around the bases to score with a headfirst slide, just beating the throw to incite a previously anxious crowd.
“Any ball that an outfielder moves to his left or right, I have to score, in my head,” Chisholm said. “That’s all I was thinking.”
The Yankees’ first two runs required less exertion. Ben Rice, another left-handed hitter not included in the starting lineup in Game 1, crushed the first pitch he saw in his postseason debut for a two-run home run off Brayan Bello in the first inning.
The Red Sox matched the blast with a two-run single from Trevor Story in the third inning before manager Alex Cora made a surprising decision in the bottom half of the frame to pull Bello with one out after throwing just 28 pitches. To win, Boston’s bullpen would need to cover at least 20 outs. The aggressive tactic proved effective until Whitlock, the fifth reliever Cora summoned, surrendered Wells’ single on his season-high 48th and final pitch, unleashing Chisholm around the bases.
“What do you expect?” Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge said. “He’s a game changer. But it just shows you the maturity of not taking what happened before and bringing it into today’s game. He showed up ready to play today and ended up having the plays for us throughout the night.”
With a win Thursday, the Yankees could become the first team to take a wild-card series after losing Game 1 since the best-of-three format was implemented for the 2022 season. The Toronto Blue Jays, the AL’s top seed, await in the Division Series. Game 1 is scheduled for Saturday.
If the Yankees get there, they could have a video game to thank. Chisholm credited a late-night video game session after Game 1 in helping turn the page from his disappointment. Playing “MLB The Show” as the New York Aliens — a team he created that features himself, Ken Griffey Jr. and Jimmy Rollins — he drubbed an online opponent by a score of 12-1 and reported for work on Wednesday ready.
“I mercy-ruled someone,” Chisholm said. “That’s how I get my stress off.”