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After months of meeting to discuss things to discuss at future meetings, the people in charge of the College Football Playoff actually made a decision on Thursday, and it was one we’ve assumed they’d make for a while. After last year’s 12-team CFP gave byes to the four most highly ranked conference champions, this year’s will not.

Conference commissioners voted to go to a straight seeding format (with five spots still reserved for conference champions) in 2025.

There are still plenty of things to discuss regarding what the CFP will look like in 2026 and beyond — and good lord, don’t even get me started on how much I don’t like where we’re probably headed in that regard — but with the 2025 season starting in less than 100 days, we at least know how things will take shape this fall. Here are a few thoughts regarding these changes.


A 2024 simulation

To see what something might look like in the future, my first step is always to revisit the past. Last year’s 12-teamer, the first-ever genuine tournament at the highest level of college football, indeed handed out byes to conference champions and gave us the weird visual of having two different numbers listed next to the teams in the bracket.

Boise State, for instance, was ranked ninth in the overall CFP rankings, but the Broncos got the No. 3 seed as the third-ranked conference champ. Arizona State was simultaneously 12th and fourth. Granted, the NFL does something similar, giving the top three seeds in each conference to the winners of each individual division (which occasionally gives us odd pairings such as 9-8 Tampa Bay hosting 11-6 Philadelphia in 2023 or the 10-7 Los Angeles Rams hosting 14-3 Minnesota in 2024). But from the start, it was clear there was some dissatisfaction with this approach. And when both BSU and ASU lost in the quarterfinals — all four conference champions did, actually — it became abundantly clear that this was going to change. It just took about five months to actually happen.

Regardless, let’s look at how the 2024 playoff would have taken shape with straight seeding instead of conference-champ byes.

First round

12 Clemson at 5 Notre Dame (SP+ projection: Irish by 13.1, 79.4% win probability)
11 Arizona State at 6 Ohio State (OSU by 24.2*, 93.6% win probability)
10 SMU at 7 Tennessee (Tennessee by 7.0, 66.9% win probability)
9 Boise State at 8 Indiana (Indiana by 12.5, 78.3% win probability)

(* Here’s your reminder that SP+ really didn’t trust Arizona State much last season, primarily because the Sun Devils were a pretty average team early in the season. At 5-2 with a number of close wins and a sketchy-looking loss at Cincinnati without injured quarterback Sam Leavitt, they entered November ranked in the 50s. While they certainly rose during their late-year hot streak, they finished the year only 35th. They were genuinely excellent late in the season — just ask Texas — but they were 6-1 in one-score games heading into the CFP, and they were lucky to reach November with the Big 12 title still within reach.)

In last year’s actual first round, the four home teams (Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State and Texas) were projected as favorites by an average of 7.2 points per SP+. The average spread was Home Team -8.9. The results were actually much more lopsided than that, and that probably wouldn’t be any different with the matchups above — here, home teams are projected favorites by an average of 14.2. Changing to straight seeding wouldn’t have made the first round more competitive.

Assuming all four home teams win in this simulation, that gives us the following quarterfinals.

Quarterfinals

Rose Bowl: 1 Oregon vs. 8 Indiana (SP+ projection: Oregon by 5.9, 64.4% win probability)
Fiesta Bowl: 4 Penn State vs. 5 Notre Dame (PSU by 0.7, 51.8% win probability)
Sugar Bowl: 3 Texas vs. 6 Ohio State (OSU by 7.1, 67.1% win probability)
Peach Bowl: 2 Georgia vs. 7 Tennessee (UGA by 2.4, 55.9% win probability)

Interestingly enough, we got two of these four matchups in real life, but they were the two semifinals — Ohio State’s 28-14 win over Texas in the Cotton Bowl and Notre Dame’s late 27-24 win over Penn State in the Orange Bowl. Now these games take place in New Orleans and Glendale, Arizona, respectively. We’ll conveniently project those results to remain the same. Meanwhile, SP+ says there’s only about a 36% chance that the other two projected favorites (Oregon and Georgia) both win, but we’ll roll with that.

Semifinals

Cotton Bowl: 1 Oregon vs. 5 Notre Dame (SP+ projection: Oregon by 2.1, 55.3% win probability)
Orange Bowl: 2 Georgia vs. 6 Ohio State (OSU by 6.8, 66.6% win probability)

With those win probabilities, there’s only about a 37% chance that both projected favorites win, and this time we’ll heed that and project an upset: Conveniently, we’ll say Notre Dame upsets Oregon, giving us the exact same Fighting Irish-Buckeyes title game we got in real life.

Final

5 Notre Dame vs. 6 Ohio State

Again, we saw this one.


Who would have benefited from this change?

In all, using my pre-CFP SP+ projections from December, here’s a comparison of what each team’s national title odds were heading into the tournament versus what they’d have looked like with straight seeding.

Not surprisingly, Arizona State’s and Boise State’s odds would have sunk without receiving a bye, but their title odds were minimal regardless. The teams that actually ended up hurt the most by the change would have been 2-seed Georgia, original 5-seed Texas and original 11-seed SMU. The main reason for the downshift in odds? They’d have all been placed on Ohio State’s side of the bracket. Meanwhile, Ohio State’s and Tennessee’s odds would have benefited from the simple fact that they would no longer be paired with unbeaten No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal. Obviously Ohio State handled that challenge with aplomb, but the Buckeyes still had to ace that test, then win two more games to take the title.

Beyond Ohio State and Tennessee, both Indiana and Oregon would have seen their title odds improve a bit with straight seeding, though for different reasons. Indiana would have gotten a first-round home game instead of having to travel to South Bend, while Oregon would have avoided Ohio State until a potential finals matchup.


Takeaways

Good: The No. 5 seed isn’t quite as uniquely valuable now

We never got to see the 12-team playoff as originally envisioned, with six conference champions earning bids from a universe that featured five power conferences. Instead, between the announced adoption of the 12-team playoff and its actual arrival, the SEC officially added Oklahoma and Texas to its roster while the Big Ten, with help from the Big 12, cannibalized the Pac-12. With only four power conferences remaining, we ended up with only five conference champions guaranteed entry, and with the distribution of power getting further consolidated (we still have four power conferences, but it’s clearly a Power Two and Other Two), that left us with an awkward bracket.

For starters, the new power distribution meant that the No. 5 seed — almost certainly the higher-ranked team between the losers of the Big Ten and SEC championship games — would get an almost unfair advantage. As I wrote back in December, “the odds are pretty good that the teams earning the No. 4 and 12 seeds (aka the two lowest-ranked conference champs) will be the weakest teams in the field …. Texas, the top-ranked non-champion and 5-seed, is indeed pitted against what SP+ thinks are the No. 17 and No. 30 teams in the country and therefore has excellent odds of reaching the semifinals.”

As you see above, Texas actually entered the CFP with better title odds (17.2%) than Georgia (16.6%), a higher-ranked team in SP+ and the team that had just defeated the Longhorns in the SEC title game. In theory, giving a team a bye and asking them to win three games instead of four would be a massive advantage. But in practice Texas’ odds of winning two games (against Clemson and ASU) were better than Georgia’s odds of winning one (Notre Dame). That’s not particularly fair, is it?

Bad: Conference title games mean even less now

Making this change would have indeed given the SEC champion better title odds than the SEC runner-up. That’s good, but it comes with a cost. In the re-simulation above, you’ll notice that both the winners and losers of the SEC and Big Ten title games ended up with byes and top-four seeds. That means there were almost literally no stakes — besides a quest to avoid major injuries like what afflicted Georgia — in either game.

Meanwhile, in the ACC championship, SMU lost to Clemson but barely fell in the CFP rankings (and, more specifically, still got in) because the playoff committee didn’t want to punish the Mustangs for playing a 13th game while others around them in the rankings were already done at 12. Add to that the fact that the straight-seeding approach diminished the above title odds for four of the five conference champions in the field, and it leads you toward a pretty easy question: Why are we even playing these games?

Commissioners of the power conferences have pretty clearly had that in their minds as they’ve discussed a convoluted (and, in my own opinion, patently ridiculous) new playoff structure that hands multiple automatic bids to each of the top four conferences: up to four each for the SEC and Big Ten and likely two each for the ACC and Big 12. With this structure in place, they can drift from title games and toward multiple play-in games within each conference. I absolutely hate this idea — if you want to wreck the integrity of the regular season, nothing would do that faster than a 7-5 or 8-4 Big Ten team potentially stealing a bid from a 10-2 or 11-1 comrade that was vastly superior in the regular season — but you can at least understand why the commissioners themselves, facing a world with diminished conference title games (and always looking for more TV spectacles), would try to get creative in this regard.

Straight seeding doesn’t change all that much. Ohio State was given a harder title path last year than would have existed with straight seeding, but the Buckeyes cruised regardless, winning four games by a combined 70 points. Meanwhile, even with a bye, Boise State and Arizona State weren’t likely to win three games and go all the way. The team that best peaks in December and January will win 2025’s title just like it did in 2024, we’ll enjoy ourselves all the same, and we’ll be facing another change in 2026 no matter what.

The countdown toward 2025 continues.

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Dingler HR helps Tigers ‘flip’ script vs. Guardians

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Dingler HR helps Tigers 'flip' script vs. Guardians

CLEVELAND — For two games and five innings, the Detroit Tigers’ offense was constantly knocking but when it mattered most, no one seemed to answer. Finally, Dillon Dingler opened the door to a clinching win.

Dingler’s sixth-inning homer off Cleveland lefty Erik Sabrowski broke a 1-1 deadlock, igniting a late Tigers rally that put the Tigers into the ALDS with a 6-3 win at Progressive Field on Thursday.

The victory not only gave the Tigers a 2-1 AL wild-card series win over the rival Guardians , it avenged last year’s loss to Cleveland in the ALDS.

“We were able to flip it right there, and we had a huge (seventh) inning, able to score some runs and be in the driver’s seat a little bit,” said Dingler, a northeast Ohio native playing in a ballpark he visited as a youth. “It was a big one.”

Before Dingler’s homer, the Tigers had managed just four runs in the series — through two games and five innings — and were a maddening 3-for-28 with runners in scoring position, putting their season in peril despite outplaying Cleveland for the most part. Two of the runs they scored were unearned.

Enter Dingler, a second-year catcher playing in his first postseason. He had started his playoff career 0-for-9 at the plate until he connected against Sabrowski, sending a changeup up in the zone into the seats in left-field, putting Detroit ahead.

“I was scratching and crawling a little bit,” Dingler said. “I was able to get a pitch to hit and do a little damage. Momentum, I feel like the momentum in the series was the biggest thing.”

And how. The aftermath of Dingler’s homer had the aspect of a boiler’s release valve being turned on, allowing bursts of steam to escape into the air.

In the seventh, with the Guardians rolling out a parade of relievers from one of baseball’s best bullpens, the Tigers finally started spinning the merry-go-round, racking up one clutch hit after another.

The rally started when Parker Meadows beat out what was meant to be a sacrifice bunt after Javier Baez led off with a double. Gleyber Torres was retired on a comebacker to a pirouetting Hunter Gaddis, then Kerry Carpenter was intentionally walked, his fourth time reaching base in the game, to load the bases.

This was exactly the kind of the spot the Tigers had faced, and failed, throughout the series. Not this time.

Wenceel Perez, Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene followed with RBI singles, plating four runs in all, and giving the Tigers a commanding lead. Up to that point, the trio had gone 1-for-13 combined with runners in scoring position during the series.

That’s what momentum looks like.

“I don’t know why in baseball it seems like one good thing happens and then two, three, four, five at-bats in a row were exceptional,” Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said. “We wanted to get even more greedy and do more, but it was nice to separate and breathe a little bit, knowing they weren’t going to give in.”

The loss brought a sudden halt to Cleveland’s building Cinderella story, one that saw them overcome a 15 1/2-game deficit to Detroit to win the AL Central, then force Thursday’s Game 3 after dropping the series opener. While coming back from the brink again and again, the Guardians forged an identity of a never-say-die team. As glorious as the run may have been, losing to the Tigers doesn’t hurt any less.

“There’s no ending of the season,” Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said. “It doesn’t end gradually, it just halts. We’ve been with each other every day for eight months. More time with each other than our family. Working together, laughing together, crying together, yelling together, you name it. Now it stops, and I had so much fun with this group.”

With the series win, the Tigers are building a budding comeback story of their own. For much of the season, Detroit was poised to land the AL’s top overall seed but a second-half slump capped by a 7-17 September landed them in Cleveland, as the road team in a wild-card series.

Now the Tigers are on their way to play the Seattle Mariners in the ALDS, beginning Tuesday, and if you had any doubts about it entering the wild-card round, you can now safely assume that the Tigers have turned the page on their lackluster finish.

“It only gets better from here,” Hinch said. “And I’m proud of our group for continuing to learn and grow and mature and fight off some of the negative thoughts that come along the way when people doubt you or you start struggling a little bit. You’ve got to stay in there.”

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Week 6 preview: Vanderbilt-Alabama, a Sunshine State showdown and more

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Week 6 preview: Vanderbilt-Alabama, a Sunshine State showdown and more

Last weekend delivered an action-packed, wire-to-wire college football slate. In Week 6, the sport’s collective attention is centered on a pair of rather distinct but equally intriguing ranked matchups: AlabamaVanderbilt and Florida StateMiami.

It has been nearly 365 days since the Commodores downed then-No. 1 Alabama in a stunning upset last October. No. 16 Vanderbilt, still led by quarterback Diego Pavia, appears to be even more formidable this fall as coach Clark Lea leads the Commodores to Bryant-Denny Stadium (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) this weekend. But they visit Alabama to face a Crimson Tide team led by a surging quarterback in Ty Simpson and a team that has only improved since the program’s Week 1 defeat at Florida State.

No. 18 Florida State hosts No. 3 Miami after suffering its first loss in a back-and-forth, overtime thriller at Virginia in Week 5. Florida State and a shaky Seminoles defensive front will run into an even stiffer test at the line of scrimmage Saturday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) against a Hurricanes rushing attack led by Mark Fletcher Jr. with ACC title race and postseason implications hanging over this early fall meeting of in-state conference rivals.

With a pair premier matchups ahead Saturday, our college football experts broke the matchups between Alabama-Vanderbilt and Florida State-Miami, reveal five freshman newcomers who have impressed in the first month of the 2025 season and recap the best quotes of Week 6. — Eli Lederman

Jump to:
In-state showdown | Vanderbilt-Alabama
Five freshman to know
Quotes of the week

What do Miami and Florida State need to focus on to win?

Miami: Given what Virginia did to Florida State on the ground last week in a thrilling 46-38 double-overtime win, Miami should focus on controlling the line of scrimmage and dominating on the ground. Good thing for the Hurricanes, they have plenty of experience doing that this season. Take their last game against Florida, for example. In the second half, they wore down the Gators up front and took control by continuing to run the ball. Miami rushed for 184 yards as Mark Fletcher Jr. went over 100 yards rushing for the second straight game. Last year against Florida State, Fletcher rushed for 71 yards and scored a touchdown, only days after his father, Mark Fletcher Sr., died unexpectedly.

Fletcher said this week he plays with his dad in mind every week, so this week is no different. But his play has sparked the Miami run game, as he has become the featured back after Jordan Lyle was injured in the opener. CharMar Brown has emerged to form a solid 1-2 punch out of the backfield.

“Mark is hard to tackle,” offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson said. “He’s very big, very strong, very physical, and he runs with passion. He’s a great example for that room, because they’re all running that way right now, which is good to see.”

Miami expects Lyle to be ready to go against Florida State. If Lyle is back to 100%, his speed and shiftiness will provide a nice counter to the power with which Fletcher has been running this season. Miami has the type of balance that coach Mario Cristobal has wanted since his arrival with the Hurricanes. He has preached building his team from the inside out, and against Florida State, the Hurricanes will have a chance to show that again. — Andrea Adelson

Florida State: Florida State’s defensive front figured to be among the best in the ACC, led by behemoth tackle Darrell Jackson Jr. and Nebraska transfer James Williams. The unit certainly looked the part in the Seminoles’ Week 1 win over Alabama, completely stifling the Tide’s ground game to the tune of only 87 yards on 29 carries.

But was all of that a mirage?

Alabama’s rushing attack hasn’t improved by leaps and bounds in the weeks since, and last week’s FSU loss to Virginia can be traced back, in many ways, to a failure to stifle the Cavaliers’ ground game.

“They made plays throughout, and they were able to do a good job in the run game against us,” coach Mike Norvell said after his team coughed up 211 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. “Virginia did a good job of staying multiple in what they did with a lot of different run schemes. They’re a good offense. We have to do better. They were able to create some seams. There were times when we weren’t all on the same page from where we needed to be, and they exposed that.”

Miami’s ground game can be every bit as dynamic but unlike the Hoos, who were down several of their top O-linemen — seven of their top 10 were injured or out for the game — the Hurricanes feature arguably the best offensive line in the country.

Still, for all of FSU’s struggles in containing Virginia, the Seminoles actually ran for more yardage than the Cavaliers. So stopping Miami is a necessity, but the Canes will be faced with a similar task. The team that slows the ground attack better is likely to be the one on the winning side Saturday. — David Hale


What do Vanderbilt and Alabama need to capitalize on?

play

1:42

Vandy’s Clark Lea looks to replicate last year’s success vs. Bama

Lea looks to make the game about the No. 16 Commodores, focusing on eliminating the crowd as he highlights the No. 10 Crimson Tide’s strengths they need to minimalize.

Vanderbilt: The Commodores aren’t going to surprise anyone this season, especially the Crimson Tide. Last year, Vanderbilt beat Alabama for the first time in 40 years with a 40-35 upset of the No. 1 Tide in Nashville.

If the Commodores are going to do it again, they might want to follow the same recipe: convert third downs, control the clock and keep Alabama’s offense off the field. Vanderbilt converted 12 of 18 third-down plays and had the ball for more than 42 minutes in 2024. The Commodores rank No. 2 in the SEC with 223.4 rushing yards per game, and they’ve got three good options to carry the ball in quarterback Diego Pavia and running backs Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young.

Alabama had problems stopping the run in last week’s 24-21 win at Georgia. The Bulldogs averaged 6.9 yards per carry and piled up 227 yards on the ground. But the Crimson Tide defense did a good job of stopping Georgia’s offense when it mattered; the Bulldogs were just 2-for-8 on third down and 0-for-1 on fourth. — Mark Schlabach

Alabama: Aside from getting Kadyn Proctor more involved in the passing game? His catch and bulldozing run against Georgia will certainly make an all-time college football highlight reel, but that play is an example of what is working well now for Alabama.

Over the past three games, the Crimson Tide have been able to keep teams off balance with their offensive play selection — particularly in the passing game. Ty Simpson has grown more comfortable as the season has progressed, and is equally adept at finding his receivers on crossing routes as he is launching deep balls to Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard.

Though Alabama could use more consistency in its run game, the way the Crimson Tide are playing on third down, and the way Simpson is converting those third downs with good decision-making, is a big step forward from Week 1 against Florida State. Vanderbilt, it should be noted, has given up a conference-high nine touchdowns through the air. So, in short, keep throwing the ball. — Adelson


Five freshman who impressed in the first month of the season

Malik Washington, QB, Maryland Terrapins

The 6-foot-5, 231-pound quarterback has thrown for 1,038 yards across a 4-0 start, trailing only Jayden Daniels (Arizona State) for the second-most passing yards by a freshman through four games since 2019. Washington enters Week 6 level with Cal’s Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele for the FBS freshmen passer touchdown lead (eight), and ESPN’s No. 3 dual-threat passer in the 2025 class is also taking good care of the football (two turnovers). Washington accounted for three touchdowns in his Big Ten debut at Wisconsin on Sept. 20, powering the Terps to their first Big Ten road win since Nov. 2023. With its talented freshman under center, Maryland has already matched its win total from a year ago and has a chance to go 5-0 for only the 10th time in program history when the Terps host Washington on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN).

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB, California Golden Bears

A late-riser last fall who bounced in, then out and back into the Bears’ 2025 class after signing with Oregon, Sagapolutele has delivered from the jump this fall. He leads freshmen passers with 1,242 passing yards and ranks second among FBS freshmen in completion percentage (59.5%). The left-handed Sagapolutele showed off his arm strength in early-season wins over Oregon State and Minnesota, then flashed maturity and late-game poise at Boston College in Week 5 when he led a nine-play, 88-yard, fourth-quarter scoring drive to complete a comeback win that improved Cal to 4-1. Sagapolutele’s four turnovers are a problem so far, but only five games into his college career, he stands among the sport’s most exciting quarterback talents and has already turned the Bears back into late-night appointment viewing.

Malachi Toney, WR, Miami Hurricanes

After reclassifying from the 2026 cycle, Toney arrived an under-the-radar, three-star recruit in Miami’s 2025 class. But there has been nothing understated about his emergence with the Hurricanes this fall. Through four games, Toney led FBS freshmen with 22 receptions and 268 receiving yards. The speedy, 5-foot-11 receiver announced himself with six catches for 82 yards — headlined by a 28-yard touchdown grab — in the Hurricanes’ Week 1 win over Notre Dame, and Toney enters Week 6 as quarterback Carson Beck‘s most targeted downfield option (28) so far. His next opportunity comes Saturday when Miami hits the road to visit Florida State (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC).

Sidney Stewart, DE, Maryland Terrapins

Two Terps on one list? Indeed. Stewart, a three-star recruit from Joppa, Maryland, has been the most productive freshman pass rusher in the country over the first month of the season. His four sacks through four games lead first-year defenders and leave Stewart tied for fifth nationally. Per ESPN Research, Stewart has created 11 pressures so far; for context, Maryland teammate Zahir Mathis and Syracuse’s Antoine Deslauriers trail behind him in second among freshman defenders in the category with five pressures each. Stewart and an aggressive Terps defensive line could be in line for another productive Saturday in Week 6 facing a Washington offensive line that has given up 12 sacks in 2025, 21st-most nationally.

Dakorien Moore, WR, Oregon Ducks

ESPN’s No. 1 wide receiver in the 2025 class, Moore has been an immediate factor in the Ducks’ passing game and early favorite for Oregon quarterback Dante Moore this fall. No FBS freshman pass catcher has been thrown to more often (29 targets) than the 5-foot-11, 195-pounder from Duncanville, Texas, and he enters Week 6 pacing all first-year skill players with 296 receiving yards. Moore’s most impressive performance was his most recent one, when he led the Ducks in catches (seven) and yards (89) in Oregon’s 30-24 overtime win over Penn State in Week 5. A contributor from day one in 2025, Moore already looks like a difference-maker on a potential national-title contender, and his role in the Ducks’ downfield attack should only grow as the season progresses. — Lederman


Quotes of the Week

“It’s just an absolute coaching failure. I don’t know another way to say it. And I’m not pointing the finger, I’m pointing the thumb. It starts with me, because I hired everybody, and I empower everybody and equip everybody.” — Dabo Swinney on Clemson 1-3 start

“That’s not indicative of who we are. Our student body, our kids, are phenomenal. So don’t indict us just based on a group of young kids that probably was intoxicated and high simultaneously. Maybe I shouldn’t have said that as well, but the truth is going to make you free. But BYU, we love you. We appreciate you and we support you.” — Deion Sanders on Colorado’s fans disparaging BYU.

“The No. 1 thing is, you have to get used to change. You know, your whole life there’s going to be change. So how we handle that, our attitude on how we handle that, will determine how quickly we improve.” — Bobby Petrino, on reorienting Arkansas after taking over as interim head coach.

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MLB wild-card series: Who will stay alive in win-or-go-home Game 3s?

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MLB wild-card series: Who will stay alive in win-or-go-home Game 3s?

It’s win-or-go-home Thursday in the MLB wild-card round!

After losing their series openers, the Cleveland Guardians, San Diego Padres and New York Yankees all rebounded with Game 2 wins on Wednesday — setting up a dramatic day with three winner-take-all Game 3s. It’s only the second time in baseball history to host three winner-takes-all playoff games in one day.

Who has the edge with division series berths on the line? We’ve got you covered with pregame lineups, sights and sounds from the ballparks and postgame takeaways as each matchup ends.

Key links: Megapreview | Passan’s take | Bracket | Schedule

Jump to a matchup:
DET-CLE | SD-CHC | BOS-NYY

3 p.m. ET on ESPN

Game 3 starters: Jack Flaherty vs. Slade Cecconi

One thing that will decide Game 3: Perhaps it’s a wide brush, but Detroit’s ability to get the ball in play and convert scoring opportunities into actual runs — or not — is likely to decide Thursday’s game. The Tigers have managed to get quality at-bats early in innings and generate plenty of traffic on the bags, but they’ve been completely unable to turn those scoring chances into runs. Their 15 runners left on base in Game 2 was a record for a franchise whose postseason history dates back to 1907. Over three potential elimination games going back to last year’s ALDS matchup, the Tigers are a combined 3-for-38 (.079) with runners in scoring position. That must change or Detroit will be done. — Bradford Doolittle

Lineups

Tigers

TBD

Guardians

TBD


5 p.m. ET on ABC

Game 3 starters: Yu Darvish vs. Jameson Taillon

One thing that will decide Game 3: Look, this is going to be a battle of the bullpens. Yu Darvish and Jameson Taillon are both going to be on a very quick hook, even if they’re pitching well. But the difference might be which of those starters can get 14 or 15 outs instead of 10 or 11, especially for the Padres given that Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller both pitched in Games 1 and 2 and might have limited availability.

Darvish had a reputation early in his career as someone who couldn’t handle the pressure of a big game, but he has turned that around and has a 2.56 ERA in his six postseason starts with the Padres. Taillon, meanwhile, was terrific down the stretch with the Cubs, with a 1.57 ERA in six starts after coming off the IL in August. This looks like another low-scoring game in which the team that hits a home run will have the edge. — Schoenfield

Lineups

Padres

TBD

Cubs

TBD


8 p.m. ET on ESPN

Game 3 starters: Connelly Early vs. Cam Schlittler

One thing that will decide Game 3: Whether Connelly Early can give the Red Sox some length. Alex Cora’s aggressive decision to pull the plug on Brayan Bello’s start after just 28 pitches in Game 2 led to him using six Red Sox relievers. Garrett Whitlock, Boston’s best reliever not named Aroldis Chapman, threw 48 pitches. Chapman didn’t enter the game but warmed up for the possibility. Left-hander Kyle Harrison, a starter during the regular season, and right-hander Greg Weissert were the only pitchers in Boston’s bullpen not used in the first two games. Early doesn’t need to last seven innings. Harrison, who hasn’t pitched since last Friday, could cover multiple innings. But a quick departure would make the night very difficult for the Red Sox’s bullpen against a potent Yankees lineup. — Jorge Castillo

Lineups

Red Sox

TBD

Yankees

TBD

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