Bye-bye buybacks? Big Oil’s record-breaking shareholder payouts are under threat
Oil prices held near two-week highs in early trading on Wednesday, supported by an agreement between the U.S. and China to temporarily lower their reciprocal tariffs and a falling U.S. dollar.
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A protracted slump in crude prices has ramped up the pressure on Big Oil’s commitment to allocate cash to shareholders.
Western energy supermajors have long sought to return cash to investors through buyback programs and dividends to keep their shareholders happy. Energy executives have also expressed confidence that they can continue to reward investors following a relatively robust set of first-quarter earnings.
Some analysts, however, are less convinced about Big Oil’s pledge to return ever-higher shareholder returns, citing already stretched balance sheets and a sharp drop in crude prices.
Oil prices have fallen more than 12% year-to-date amid persistent demand concerns and U.S. President Donald Trump’s back-and-forth trade policy.
Espen Erlingsen, head of upstream research at consultancy Rystad Energy, said recent market volatility has left the energy majors with “few economically attractive options” that allow for reinvestment while maintaining a competitive capital returns framework.
“As companies like Shell and ExxonMobil continue to push ahead with large-scale buyback programs despite shrinking cash inflows, the durability of these strategies is in question. For now, the majors are holding the line. But if oil prices remain depressed, adjustments may be inevitable,” Erlingsen said in a research note published Thursday.
Share buybacks, which are typically more flexible than dividends, are “likely to be the first lever pulled,” he added. In that vein, weaker crude prices mean energy majors will have less cash to return to shareholders.
BP logo is seen at a gas station in this illustration photo taken in Poland on March 15, 2025.
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Investor concern over the sustainability of Big Oil’s shareholder returns comes after a year of record-breaking payouts.
Analysts at Rystad said total shareholder rewards from the likes of Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, Eni, Exxon Mobil and Chevron climbed to a whopping $119 billion in 2024, beating the previous record set in 2023.
The payout ratio, which refers to shareholder payouts as a share of corporate cash flow from operations (CFFO), meanwhile jumped up to 56% last year, Rystad said. That was well above the 30% to 40% range that was typical for the industry from 2012 through to 2022, the analysts added.
If shareholder payouts were to remain at 2024 levels throughout 2025, Rystad said this would imply companies distribute more than 80% of their cash flow to investors. The estimate was based on Big Oil’s first-quarter CFFO as a proxy for full-year performance.
Point of maximum weakness
For European majors, analysts at Bank of America said at the start of the year in a note entitled “bye-bye buybacks?” that it anticipated cuts in such returns, from companies whose balance sheets were already stretched.
The Wall Street bank cited BP, Repsol and Eni at the time. It added that only Shell, TotalEnergies and Equinor were among the regional players likely to keep their respective 2025 buyback run-rates intact.
Spokespersons for Repsol and Eni were not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC.
So far, BP is the only European energy major to have trimmed its buyback run-rate. The beleaguered British oil company last month posted a sharp fall in first-quarter profit and reduced its share buyback to $750 million, down from $1.75 billion in the prior quarter.
BP, which has been the subject of intense takeover speculation, also reported significantly lower cash flow and rising net debt for the first quarter.
Lydia Rainforth, head of European energy, equity research at Barclays, said BP’s future appears to be “really bright” — on the condition that the company can get through the next six months.
“If I think about when is that point of maximum weakness for BP, it is over the next six months, ultimately. Debt continues to go up a little bit, production continues to fall until mid-2026,” Rainforth told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick on Thursday.
“As I get towards the end of the year, hopefully we’ll see that sum of divestments taking down debt. Things like … selling their lubricants business, that could raise between $12 billion to $15 billion. It brings down debt, you start to see the benefit of cost savings coming through, and then production growth starts kicking in next year,” she added.
![Day 1 of the Electrek Formula Sun Grand Prix 2025 [Gallery]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2025/07/54629423281_6315c46dff_k.jpg?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
Today was the official start of racing at the Electrek Formula Sun Grand Prix 2025! There was a tremendous energy (and heat) on the ground at NCM Motorsports Park as nearly a dozen teams took to the track. Currently, as of writing, Stanford is ranked #1 in the SOV (Single-Occupant Vehicle) class with 68 registered laps. However, the fastest lap so far belongs to UC Berkeley, which clocked a 4:45 on the 3.15-mile track. That’s an average speed of just under 40 mph on nothing but solar energy. Not bad!
In the MOV (Multi-Occupant Vehicle) class, Polytechnique Montréal is narrowly ahead of Appalachian State by just 4 laps. At last year’s formula sun race, Polytechnique Montréal took first place overall in this class, and the team hopes to repeat that success. It’s still too early for prediction though, and anything can happen between now and the final day of racing on Saturday.
Congrats to the teams that made it on track today. We look forward to seeing even more out there tomorrow. In the meantime, here are some shots from today via the event’s wonderful photographer Cora Kennedy.
Stay tuned for more!
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The numbers are in and they are all bad for Tesla fans – the company sold just 5,000 Cybertruck models in Q4 of 2025, and built some 30% more “other” vehicles than it delivered. It just gets worse and worse, on today’s tension-building episode of Quick Charge!
We’ve also got day 1 coverage of the 2025 Electrek Formula Sun Grand Prix, reports that the Tesla Optimus program is in chaos after its chief engineer jumps ship, and a look ahead at the fresh new Hyundai IONIQ 2 set to bow early next year, thanks to some battery specs from the Kia EV2.
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Tesla has launched its new Oasis Supercharger, the long-promised EV charging station of the future, with a solar farm and off-grid batteries.
Early in the deployment of the Supercharger network, Tesla promised to add solar arrays and batteries to the Supercharger stations, and CEO Elon Musk even said that most stations would be able to operate off-grid.
While Tesla did add solar and batteries to a few stations, the vast majority of them don’t have their own power system or have only minimal solar canopies.
Back in 2016, I asked Musk about this, and he said that it would now happen as Tesla had the “pieces now in place” with Supercharger V3, Powerpack V2, and SolarCity:
All of these pieces have been in place for years, and Tesla has now discontinued the Powerpack in favor of the Megapack. The Supercharger network is also transitioning to V4 stations.
Yet, solar and battery deployment haven’t accelerated much in the decade since Musk made that comment, but it is finally happening.
Last year, Tesla announced a new project called ‘Oasis’, which consists of a new model Supercharger station with a solar farm and battery storage enabling off-grid operations in Lost Hills, California.
Tesla has now unveiled the project and turned on most of the Supercharger stalls:
The project consists of 168 chargers, with half of them currently operational, making it one of the largest Supercharger stations in the world. However, that’s not even the most notable aspect of it.
The station is equipped with 11 MW of ground-mounted solar panels and canopies, spanning 30 acres of land, and 10 Tesla Megapacks with a total energy storage capacity of 39 MWh.
It can be operated off-grid, which is the case right now, according to Tesla.
With off-grid operations, Tesla was about to bring 84 stalls online just in time for the Fourth of July travel weekend. The rest of the stalls and a lounge are going to open later this year.
Electrek’s Take
This is awesome. A bit late, but awesome. This is what charging stations should be like: fully powered by renewable energy.
Unfortunately, it will be much harder to open those stations in the future due to legislation that Trump and the Republican Party have just passed, which removes incentives for solar and energy storage, adds taxes on them, and removes incentives to build batteries – all things that have helped Tesla considerably over the last few years.
The US is likely going to have a few tough years for EV adoption and renewable energy deployment.
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