Bye-bye buybacks? Big Oil’s record-breaking shareholder payouts are under threat
Oil prices held near two-week highs in early trading on Wednesday, supported by an agreement between the U.S. and China to temporarily lower their reciprocal tariffs and a falling U.S. dollar.
Imaginima | E+ | Getty Images
A protracted slump in crude prices has ramped up the pressure on Big Oil’s commitment to allocate cash to shareholders.
Western energy supermajors have long sought to return cash to investors through buyback programs and dividends to keep their shareholders happy. Energy executives have also expressed confidence that they can continue to reward investors following a relatively robust set of first-quarter earnings.
Some analysts, however, are less convinced about Big Oil’s pledge to return ever-higher shareholder returns, citing already stretched balance sheets and a sharp drop in crude prices.
Oil prices have fallen more than 12% year-to-date amid persistent demand concerns and U.S. President Donald Trump’s back-and-forth trade policy.
Espen Erlingsen, head of upstream research at consultancy Rystad Energy, said recent market volatility has left the energy majors with “few economically attractive options” that allow for reinvestment while maintaining a competitive capital returns framework.
“As companies like Shell and ExxonMobil continue to push ahead with large-scale buyback programs despite shrinking cash inflows, the durability of these strategies is in question. For now, the majors are holding the line. But if oil prices remain depressed, adjustments may be inevitable,” Erlingsen said in a research note published Thursday.
Share buybacks, which are typically more flexible than dividends, are “likely to be the first lever pulled,” he added. In that vein, weaker crude prices mean energy majors will have less cash to return to shareholders.
BP logo is seen at a gas station in this illustration photo taken in Poland on March 15, 2025.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Investor concern over the sustainability of Big Oil’s shareholder returns comes after a year of record-breaking payouts.
Analysts at Rystad said total shareholder rewards from the likes of Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, Eni, Exxon Mobil and Chevron climbed to a whopping $119 billion in 2024, beating the previous record set in 2023.
The payout ratio, which refers to shareholder payouts as a share of corporate cash flow from operations (CFFO), meanwhile jumped up to 56% last year, Rystad said. That was well above the 30% to 40% range that was typical for the industry from 2012 through to 2022, the analysts added.
If shareholder payouts were to remain at 2024 levels throughout 2025, Rystad said this would imply companies distribute more than 80% of their cash flow to investors. The estimate was based on Big Oil’s first-quarter CFFO as a proxy for full-year performance.
Point of maximum weakness
For European majors, analysts at Bank of America said at the start of the year in a note entitled “bye-bye buybacks?” that it anticipated cuts in such returns, from companies whose balance sheets were already stretched.
The Wall Street bank cited BP, Repsol and Eni at the time. It added that only Shell, TotalEnergies and Equinor were among the regional players likely to keep their respective 2025 buyback run-rates intact.
Spokespersons for Repsol and Eni were not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC.
So far, BP is the only European energy major to have trimmed its buyback run-rate. The beleaguered British oil company last month posted a sharp fall in first-quarter profit and reduced its share buyback to $750 million, down from $1.75 billion in the prior quarter.
BP, which has been the subject of intense takeover speculation, also reported significantly lower cash flow and rising net debt for the first quarter.
Lydia Rainforth, head of European energy, equity research at Barclays, said BP’s future appears to be “really bright” — on the condition that the company can get through the next six months.
“If I think about when is that point of maximum weakness for BP, it is over the next six months, ultimately. Debt continues to go up a little bit, production continues to fall until mid-2026,” Rainforth told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick on Thursday.
“As I get towards the end of the year, hopefully we’ll see that sum of divestments taking down debt. Things like … selling their lubricants business, that could raise between $12 billion to $15 billion. It brings down debt, you start to see the benefit of cost savings coming through, and then production growth starts kicking in next year,” she added.
Wagons don’t get a lot of love Stateside, with American buyers choosing SUVs over – well, pretty much every other type of vehicle imaginable. That’s our loss, as the latest plug in hybrid versions of the Volkswagen Passat are here to prove.
The latest Passat Variant eHybrid (or, in some markets, Vario, which is what the Europeans like to call wagons) is different from the version we get in the US. Unlike the domestic version which is based on a low-cost platform specific to the US and China, the Euro-market version is built on the MQB platform that underpins VW’s flagship Arteon four-door coupe and both VW‘s and Audi’s entry-luxe SUVs.
That might seem weird, since VW has sold more than 34 million units sold worldwide and the Passat is the second top-selling Volkswagen of all time (behind the Golf and ahead of the Beetle). It’s understandable, then, that the European execs are pretty proud of their Passat.
The latest evolutionary stage of the modular transverse matrix (MQB evo)forms the highly innovative technical basis of the ninth Passat generation. Thanks to the significant economies of scale of the MQB evo, Volkswagen has again democratised numerous high-tech developments and made them available for hundreds of thousands of drivers. The two completely newly developed plug-in hybrid drives (eHybrid) are a perfect example of this. In combination with a new battery, they make all-electric ranges of around 100 km possible. This distance turns the new Passat Variant into an electric vehicle for everyday life – this is additionally ensured by short charging times as the battery can now be charged at AC charge points with 11 kW instead of the previous 3.6 kW. The Passat Variant eHybrid can even be charged with up to 50 kW at DC fast charging stations. In addition, the combination of electric drive motor and new economical turbocharged petrol engine provides overall ranges of around 1,000 km.
KAI GRÜNITZ
Member of the Brand Board of Management, VW
In case the jealous American wago-philes reading this aren’t jealous enough, Volkswagen has announced new Passat eHybrid Match and Black Editions that add nearly £5k of options for the new model year effectively for free.
“Match is better equipped than the outgoing Life, with additional features including metallic paint, VW’s IQ.Light LED matrix headlights, tinted rear windows and an ‘assistance pack’ which adds area view and emergency assist,” reports Alastair Crooks, from the UK car site AutoExpress. “The new Black Edition comes with metallic paint, 19-inch alloy wheels, a panoramic sunroof, tinted rear windows (darker than the Match’s), heated front and rear seats, a head-up display, a 15-inch central touchscreen and the same assistance pack as the Match.”
The entry-level Match replaces the previous Life trim, but costs the same £45,555 (about $60,500), while the Black Edition costs the same as the outgoing R-Line, from £48,900 (about $64,950). The order books open 14 August.
You can take a look at some of the VW press photos of the European Passat wagon Variant, below, then let us know if you’d rather have this for $60K or the discount American version in the comments.
VW Passat Variant gallery
SOURCE | IMAGES: VW, via AutoExpress.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
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Wirtgen Vögele recently revealed the battery-powered MINI 500e and the MINI 502e electric pavers. With an electrically heated screed, a range of paving widths, and zero-emission operations, they’re paving a greener, cleaner path.
Co-developed by Wirtgen Vögele and Italian road equipment manufacturer C. M. S.r.l., the new electric pavers will enable contractors to bid on construction projects that are subject to even the strictest noise and emission limits – but the company is quick to point out that they’re capable enough to serve on conventional job sites.
“These pavers excel on small-scale construction projects and jobs covering a small area – the type of work for which paving crews would not previously have been able to use machines,” reads the official Wirtgen Vögele copy. “Thanks to their elimination of manual labor, among other benefits, the new MINI pavers improve the efficiency and quality of asphalt paving, particularly in the construction of sidewalks and drains, as well as in tight downtown locations.”
The new Wirtgen MINI 502e (the one with wheels) and the MINI 500e (the one with crawler tracks) offer pave widths from 0.25 to 1.8 m, feature a battery-electric drive outputting 22.8 kW (30 hp), and your choice of either a 15 kWh or 22 kWh 48V li-ion battery – good enough battery capacity for up to 16 hours of continuing paving. Both versions can be fully charged on a conventional 110/120 “L1” power socket in about eight hours.
Electrek’s Take
At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter what the federal EV incentives are or even what the guys on your crew want to operate. What matters is that construction noise upsets Mrs. Clancik’s terrier, and she will force the town council to keep the noise down all by herself.
If your construction company wants to bid on any municipal work, that means you’re gonna have to stay quiet. Maybe even keep the smells to a minimum, too. Buying electric equipment means you can do both.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Wirtgen, via Construction Equipment International.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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Car brands like Volvo, Mercedes-Benz, and Tesla have built up solid reputations for safety, but their ultra-safe vehicles often come with a premium price tag. The good news for car buyers looking for a deal, but still prize safety, is that there’s an all-electric Hyundai for under $40K that scores top marks on the IIHS’ toughest new safety tests.
SKIP THE STORY: take me to the deals.
Last Februray, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) established new benchmark criteria that included stricter side-impact and moderate overlap crash safety standards, improved safety for back seat passengers, and a stronger emphasis on pedestrian detection in low light.
“We followed the tougher requirements we introduced last year with another major update to the award criteria,” explains IIHS President David Harkey. “(The 2024) winners are true standouts, offering the highest level of protection for both vehicle occupants and other vulnerable road users.”
The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety is making it harder to earn its Top Safety Pick and Top Safety Pick+ awards from 2024, challenging manufacturers to offer better protection for back seat passengers and improve their pedestrian crash avoidance systems.
We’ve covered a few of the standout performers already over the past year-plus since the new safety standards were awarded, including the Rivian R1T (the only electric pickup to earn the coveted Top Safety Pick+ award), Audi Q6 e-tron, and the Tesla Model Y … but what we haven’t written about was the fact that the Hyundai IONIQ 6 was the only electric sedan to get a Top Safety Pick+, as well.
Why it matters, now
With the average transaction price of a new car at $48,907 and the looming demise of the $7,500 Federal tax credit accelerating demand for EVs (even for those that may not qualify), new EV buyers looking for a dependable commuter with long-range chops, ultra-fast charging capabilities, and the latest infotainment tech for under $40,000 have precious few options. And, if that Top Safety Pick+ rating is a must have? They only have one.
The good news is that it’s an excellent option. The 2024 version was named Car and Driver‘s 2023 EV of the Year, and led our own Scooter Doll to ask, “is any other automaker delivering more value in high-tech EVs right now?” and Nigel Evans over at CarBuzz to write, “Comparing the Ioniq 6 to its rivals is also an interesting exercise. For example, the Tesla Model 3 RWD now costs more than $40,000, with questionable interior design and layout and no Top Safety Pick+ from the IIHS. You can’t get the Chevrolet Bolt or Bolt EUV anymore in the budget EV sector, but they also lacked fast-charging capability.”
With up to 342 miles of range and a starting MSRP of $37,850 with all trims eligible for $7,500 in Retail Bonus Cash through Labor Day plus dealer discounts (if you can get them) bringing the price down even further, there’s a nonzero chance car buyers will be able to score a 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 6 for a sub-30K transaction price. Other featured deals include 0% interest financing for up to 48 months on any 2025 IONIQ 5 models in dealer inventory for well-qualified buyers, while lease buyers able to get a new SE model for $199/mo. with $3,999 down.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Hyundai, IIHS; via CarBuzz.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
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