“The target was never particularly ambitious,” says the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) about Labour’s plan to add two million extra NHS appointments during their first year in power.
In February, Health Secretary Wes Streeting announced they had achieved the feat early. He recently described the now 3.6m additional appointments achieved in their first eight months as a “massive increase”.
But new data, obtained by independent fact checking charity Full Fact and shared exclusively with Sky News, reveals this figure actually signalled a slowing down in new NHS activity.
There was an even larger rise of 4.2m extra appointments over the same period the year before, under Rishi Sunak’s government.
The data also reveals how unambitious the target was in the first place.
We now know two million extra appointments over the course of a year represents a rise of less than 3% of the almost 70 million carried out in the year to June 2024.
In the last year under Mr Sunak, the rise was 10% – and the year before that it was 8%.
Responding to the findings, Sarah Scobie, deputy director of independent health and social care think tank the Nuffield Trust, told Sky News the two million target was “very modest”.
She said delivering that number of appointments “won’t come close to bringing the treatment waiting list back to pre-pandemic levels, or to meeting longer-term NHS targets”.
The IFS said it was smaller than the annual growth in demand pressures forecast by the government.
What exactly did Labour promise?
The Labour election manifesto said: “As a first step, in England we will deliver an extra two million NHS operations, scans, and appointments every year; that is 40,000 more appointments every week.”
We asked the government many times exactly how it would measure the pledge, as did policy experts from places like the IFS and Full Fact. But it repeatedly failed to explain how it was defined.
Leo Benedictus, a journalist and fact-checker at Full Fact, told Sky News: “We didn’t know how they were defining these appointments.
“When they said that there would be more of them, we didn’t know what there would be more of.”
Image: Leo Benedictus
Even once in government, initially Labour did not specify their definition of “operations, scans, and appointments”, or what the baseline “extra” was being measured against.
This prevented us and others from measuring progress every month when NHS stats were published. Did it include, for instance, mental health and A&E appointments? And when is the two million extra comparison dating from?
Target met, promise kept?
Suddenly, in February, the government announced the target had already been met – and ever since, progress on appointments has been a key boast of ministers and Labour MPs.
At this point, they did release some information: the definition of procedures that allowed them to claim what had been achieved. They said the target involved is elective – non-emergency – operations excluding maternity and mental health services; outpatient appointments and diagnostic tests.
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Why has Starmer axed NHS England?
However, we still did not have a comprehensive baseline to measure the two million increase against.
The government data instead relied on a snapshot: comparing the number of appointments carried out from July to November 2024 with the number from July to November 2023, and adjusted them for the number of working days in each period.
This did not tell us if the NHS had already been adding appointments under the Conservatives, and at what pace, and therefore whether this target was a big impressive ramping up of activity or, as it turns out, actually a slowing down.
Since then, a number of organisations, like Full Fact, have been fighting with the government to release the data.
Mr Benedictus said: “We asked them for that information. They didn’t publish it. We didn’t have it.
“The only way we could get hold of it was by submitting an FOI request, which they had to answer. And when that came back about a month later, it was fascinating.”
This finally gives us the comparative data allowing us to see what the baseline is against which the government’s “success” is being measured.
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “On entering office last July, the secretary of state [Wes Streeting] was advised that the fiscal black hole meant elective appointments would have to be cut by 20,000 every week.
“Instead, this government provided the extra investment and has already delivered 3.6 million additional appointments – more than the manifesto commitment the British public voted for – while also getting more patients seen within 18 weeks.
“In the nine months since this government took office, the waiting list has dropped by over 200,000 – more than five times as much as it had over the same period the previous year – and also fell for six consecutive months in a row.”
Image: Health Secretary Wes Streeting. Pic: PA
We put this to Jeremy Hunt, Rishi Sunak’s chancellor during his last two years as prime minister, and health secretary for six years under David Cameron and Theresa May.
He said: “What these numbers seem to show is that the rate of appointments was going up by more in the last government than it is by this government. That’s really disappointing when you look at the crisis in the NHS.
“All the evidence is that if you want to increase the number of people being treated, you need more capacity in the system, and you need the doctors and nurses that are there to be working more productively.
“Instead what we’ve had from this government is the vast majority of the extra funding for the NHS has gone into pay rises, without asking for productivity in return.”
Image: Jeremy Hunt speaks to Sky’s Sam Coates
Edward Argar, shadow health secretary, accused the government of a “weak attempt […] to claim credit for something that was already happening”.
“We need to see real and meaningful reform that will genuinely move the dial for patients,” he added.
Is the NHS getting better or worse?
New polling carried out by YouGov on behalf of Sky News this week also reveals 39% of people think the NHS has got worse over the past year, compared with 12% who think it’s got better.
Six in 10 people say they do not trust Keir Starmer personally on the issue of the NHS, compared with three in 10 who say they do.
That is a better rating than some of his rivals, however. Just 21% of people say they trust Nigel Farage with the NHS, and only 16% trust Kemi Badenoch – compared with 64% and 60% who do not.
Ed Davey performs better, with 30% saying they trust him and 38% saying they do not.
Ms Scobie of the Nuffield Trust told Sky News “the government is right to make reducing long hospital treatment waits a key priority […] but much faster growth in activity is needed for the NHS to see a substantial improvement in waiting times for patients.”
The government is correct, however, to point out the waiting list having dropped by more than 200,000 since it’s been in office. This is the biggest decline between one July and the following February since current waiting list statistics were first published under Gordon Brown.
The percentage of people waiting less than 18 weeks for treatment is also falling for the first time, other than a brief period during the pandemic, for the first time in more than a decade.
The latest figures show 6.25m people waiting for 7.42m treatments (some people are on the list for more than one issue). That means more than one in 10 people in England are currently waiting for NHS treatment.
There continues to be a fall in the number who have been waiting longer than a year. It’s now 180,242, down from almost 400,000 in August 2023 and over 300,000 in June 2024, the Conservatives’ last month in power.
But that number is still incredibly high by historical standards. It remains over 100 times higher than it was before the pandemic.
The government has a separate pledge that no more than 8% of patients will wait longer than 18 weeks for treatment, by the time of the next election. Despite improvements in recent months, currently more than 40% wait longer than this.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Martin Lewis says motorists who were mis-sold car finance are likely to receive “hundreds, not thousands of pounds” – with regulators launching a consultation on a new compensation scheme.
The founder of MoneySavingExpert.com believes it is “very likely” that about 40% of Britons who entered personal contact purchase or hire purchase agreements between 2007 and 2021 will be eligible for payouts.
“Discretionary commission arrangements” saw brokers and dealers charge higher levels of interest so they could receive more commission, without telling consumers.
Image: Pics: PA
Speaking to Sky News Radio’s Faye Rowlands, Lewis said: “Very rarely will it be thousands of pounds unless you have more than one car finance deal.
“So up to about a maximum of £950 per car finance deal where you are due compensation.”
Lewis explained that consumers who believe they may have been affected should check whether they had a discretionary commission arrangement by writing to their car finance company.
However, the personal finance guru warned against using a claims firm.
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“They’re hardly going to do anything for you and you might get the money paid to you automatically anyway, in which case you’re giving them 30% for nothing,” he added.
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Who’s eligible for payout after car finance scandal?
Yesterday, the Financial Conduct Authority said its review of the past use of motor finance “has shown that many firms were not complying with the law or our disclosure rules that were in force when they sold loans to consumers”.
The FCA’s statement added that those affected “should be appropriately compensated in an orderly, consistent and efficient way”.
Lewis told Sky News that the consultation will launch in October – and will take six weeks.
“We expect payouts to come in 2026, assuming this will happen and it’s very likely to happen,” he said.
“As for exactly how will work, it hasn’t decided yet. Firms will have to contact people, although there is an issue about them having destroyed some of the data for older claims.”
He believes claims will either be paid automatically – or affected consumers will need to opt in and apply to get compensation back.
The FCA says you may be affected if you bought a car under a finance scheme, including hire purchase agreements, before 28 January 2021.
Anyone who has already complained does not need to do anything.
The authority added: “Consumers concerned that they were not told about commission, and who think they may have paid too much for the finance, should complain now”.
Its website advises drivers to complain to their finance provider first.
If you’re unhappy with the response, you can then contact the Financial Ombudsman.
Any compensation scheme will be easy to participate in, without drivers needing to use a claims management company or law firm.
The FCA has warned motorists that doing so could end up costing you 30% of any compensation in fees.
The FCA estimates the cost of any scheme – including compensation and administrative costs – to be no lower than £9bn.
But in a video on X, Lewis said that millions of people are likely to be due a share of up to £18bn.
The regulator’s announcement comes after the Supreme Court ruled on a separate, but similar, case on Friday.
Image: Waves break on the sea front in Blackpool. File pic: PA
A wider yellow warning – covering the North of England and Northern Ireland – is also active between 6am this morning and 11.59pm tonight.
Train operator LNER has warned passengers not to travel north of Newcastle, while Avanti West Coast has advised its customers not to travel north of Preston as it will be “heavily affected” by the weather.
“We’re expecting heavy rain and high winds to result in disruption of services,” LNER said in a statement.
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Some trains have already been cancelled in Scotland, with Network Rail saying several lines will be closed from 12pm. Other routes will run with a reduced timetable and longer journey times.
Among the routes set to close at midday are Edinburgh to Fife, Perth to Dundee, and Aberdeen to Inverness, as well as the West Highland Line.
The storm could also lead to road closures – and several ferry services have already been cancelled by Scottish operator CalMac.
The Met Office said that much of Scotland, particularly western coastal areas, will be battered by heavy rain and windy conditions.
Image: Pic: Met Office
The strongest gusts are expected this afternoon and into the evening – but a Met Office spokesperson warned “there remains some uncertainty in the depth and track of Floris”.
Sky News’ weather presenter Jo Wheeler said: “Storm Floris is likely to bring a spell of weather not usually associated with the height of summer.
“Travelling across the Atlantic, this otherwise unremarkable, low-pressure system will cross a powerful jet stream, exiting on the cold side, renowned for storm formation.”
She said inland gusts of 50mph to 60mph are widely possible, potentially reaching 80mph to 90mph over exposed coasts, hills and bridges.
“The rain associated with this storm will largely clear through early tomorrow, but it’s as the rain goes that the winds start to strengthen,” she warned.
Almost two months after Air India Flight 171’s deadly crash, some of the 53 British nationals on board are only now being laid to rest.
Some 300 friends, families, and locals from the Gujarati community in and around Londongathered in Wembley for a prayer and memorial service dedicated to remembering some of the victims.
Wearing his father’s emerald ring that was miraculously recovered from the wreckage, Miten Patel addresses the crowd.
His parents, Ashok and Shobhana Patel, were travelling back to their home in Orpington, Kent, after a spiritual trip to India, when they were killed in the crash on 12 June.
Their funeral was held only days ago, after being delayed following the discovery that the remains of other individuals were found in Miten’s mother’s casket.
Image: Ashok and Shobhana Patel were among 241 who died in the Air India plane crash
He credits Professor Fiona Wilcox, the senior coroner at Inner West London Coroner’s Court, for meeting with him and his family to break the news.
“My parents were the first ones repatriated in the UK,” Miten explains – he organised the repatriation of his parents before he flew out to Ahmedabad.
“When they were back home, the first thing that they did was a CT scan. And that’s when it came about, the CT scan showed that with mum’s remains, there were further remains there too.
“I don’t know what they were. I don’t know how many.”
Image: The remains of other individuals were found in Miten’s mother’s casket
Miten’s parents’ funeral was attended by hundreds. His father, Ashok, was a financial adviser and his mother, Shobhana, was a retired microbiologist.
As the eldest son, organising much of his parents’ farewell fell to him. The concern around his mother’s remains delayed the family’s chance to grieve.
“I think there should be a level of responsibility taken. Why did that happen? Where was the flaw in that process? I mean I do understand that whole situation, people were rushing, people were very tired.
“You know, to get all the remains, then having to separate them by DNA, it’s a long process. But really, for us as loved ones, it is very upsetting.”
Indian government spokesman Randhir Jaiswal previously said the country was “working closely with the UK side from the moment these concerns and issues were brought to our attention”.
“In the wake of the tragic crash, the concerned authorities had carried out identification of victims as per established protocols and technical requirements,” he said. “All mortal remains were handled with utmost professionalism and with due regard for the dignity of the deceased.
“We are continuing to work with the UK authorities on addressing any concerns related to this issue.”
The flight crashed moments after take-off en route to Gatwick, killing 241 people on board. Horrifying images were beamed around the world within minutes.
Confusion and fear spread like wildfire among relatives back in the UK, who immediately tried to get hold of their loved ones.
It was a family member of Komal Patel’s who called her after seeing the images on the news.
There was only one flight out of Ahmedabad back to London that day, and she had only just been texting her brother Sunny and his wife Monali, who’d been on holiday.
The events of the past few weeks have been unfathomable.
Image: Sunny and Monali Patel were about to celebrate their 10-year anniversary
In her first interview about her brother and her sister-in-law, Komal explains how she flew out to India with her cousin Jina to go and identify her little brother.
“Because we weren’t really allowed to see the body, I don’t think I’ve really come to terms with it. I still think I’m dreaming and it’s not really real,” Komal tells us.
Sunny and Monali Patel were in their 30s and about to celebrate their 10-year anniversary.
Image: Komal Patel flew to India with her cousin Jina to identify her little brother
The couple were the “light” and “soul” of their families.
They loved having fun, playing with their nieces and nephews and adored travelling. Komal says her brother loved barbecues and her sister-in-law worked with children and adored hers too.
“They’re just really fun, exciting, really lived life, just made memories, just made everyone really happy,” says big sister Komal.
“They were like the heart of my kids. Whenever they walked into a room, they just filled up the room with laughter and happiness.”
Image: A photo of Sunny and Monali Patel, who died in the Air India plane crash, on display at a vigil
The couple had been due to fly back home to London a week beforehand but postponed their flight.
“It has just been very traumatic, very, very sad for us, losing Sunny and Monali at 39 years old,” says their cousin Jina.
“They were full of life and brought so much light into our family. As a family, we’re devastated at why two people so young, with so much energy, who brought so much into our families have just sort of gone in one day.”
A joint funeral for the husband and wife was held a fortnight ago and like hundreds of families impacted by this tragedy, the family are now rebuilding a foundation that has been shattered.