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For almost a decade, Mike Trout was the unquestioned best player in baseball.

From 2012 to 2019, he won the American League MVP award three times and finished second in the voting four times. In the years he didn’t win, he led the AL three times in WAR; in 2017, he led the AL in OBP, slugging and OPS, but he sat out some time and finished a mere fourth in the voting; and in 2018, it took a herculean season from Mookie Betts to beat out Trout in what was one of Trout’s best seasons. Really, he wasn’t that far away from winning eight consecutive MVPs.

But since then, it feels as if we’ve been robbed of the second half of the career of one of the game’s all-time greats. Trout has been injured much of the time since 2021, playing in only about 42% of the games the Los Angeles Angels have played. Right now, he’s injured again because of a bone bruise in his left knee; when he has played this season, he cracked nine home runs in 29 games but was also hitting just .179. He had similar results in the 29 games he played before tearing the meniscus in his left knee last season, when he hit .220 with 10 home runs. Admitting the injuries and Trout’s age — he’s 33 — have caught him up, the Angels finally moved him off center field this season.

Those prolonged absences have allowed Betts, who continues to play at a high level and ranks third among position players in WAR this decade, to slowly close the gap on Trout. It’s now an argument to consider: Is Betts poised to pass Trout as the best player of their generation?

First, we need to define what “their generation” is. When generations are discussed in demographic terms, the division is done by birth years, usually lasting 15 to 20 years or so. Trout was born in 1991, so under this definition, his “generation” could extend all the way from players born in the 1970s to the late 2000s and include the likes of Derek Jeter (born in 1974), Alex Rodriguez (1975), Albert Pujols (1980), Clayton Kershaw (1988), Juan Soto (1998), Paul Skenes (2002) and Jackson Merrill (2003).

That’s a broad swath of birth dates — too broad. Instead, let’s categorize generational value using the same years as defined in pop culture — Baby Boomers, Gen X, etc. — but with a twist: looking at value accumulated only in those specific years (not the years in which the players were born).

This is a thought exercise as much as a hardcore statistical study, because we do talk about generations (or eras) all the time in baseball — the dead ball era, the steroid era, the wild-card era and so on. As we take a deeper dive into how Trout and Betts compare, let’s also go through each generation to see which players ruled those periods in the sport, ending with the great Generation Alpha debate between Trout and Betts (and yes, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani might pop up, too).

Trout vs. Betts by the numbers

Trout was piling up so much WAR at such a young age that we used to do monthly updates on all the players he had just passed on the career WAR list. His run began as a rookie in 2012 in his age-20 season, when he hit .326 with 30 home runs and led the AL in runs scored and stolen bases. And for a long time, he looked destined to become one of the greatest players of all time — the inner circle of the inner circle. Look at where he ranked on the career WAR leaderboard for position players through each age:

Age 20, 2012 season: 11.0 (second behind Mel Ott)
Age 21, 2013: 19.9 (first, ahead of Ott)
Age 22, 2014: 27.6 (first, ahead of Ty Cobb and Ott)
Age 23, 2015: 37.1 (first, ahead of Cobb and Ted Williams)
Age 24, 2016: 47.5 (first, ahead of Cobb and Mickey Mantle)
Age 25, 2017: 54.4 (second, behind Cobb)
Age 26, 2018: 64.3 (first, ahead of Cobb and Mantle)
Age 27, 2019: 72.2 (first, ahead of Cobb and Mantle)

Then, starting with the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Trout’s pace took a downturn.

Age 28, 2020: 74.0 (fourth, behind Cobb, Rogers Hornsby and Mantle)
Age 29, 2021: 75.9 (sixth, now behind Ott and Alex Rodriguez)
Age 30, 2022: 82.0 (fifth, climbing back ahead of Ott)
Age 31, 2023: 84.9 (10th, with Babe Ruth, Henry Aaron and Willie Mays passing him)
Age 32, 2024: 86.0 (15th, with Barry Bonds jumping ahead for the first time)

This takes us to 2025, Trout’s age-33 season. He’s currently squeezed on the all-time list between Jimmie Foxx and Eddie Mathews — two players, coincidentally, who had already compiled more than 89% of their career WAR total through their age-32 seasons.

Meanwhile, with Trout sitting out so many games in the past several years, Betts started making a run at Trout for best player of their generation. Trout still has a significant lead in lifetime WAR, 85.8 to 72.2, but consider Betts’ advantages in this statistical chase:

  1. He’s a year younger (Trout was born in August 1991, Betts in October 1992).

  2. He’s playing at a higher level, averaging 7.8 WAR per 162 games since 2022, compared to 6.2 for Trout (we went back to 2022 to include Trout’s high rate of production that season).

  3. He obviously has stayed on the field much more, playing 579 games since 2021 compared to 295 for Trout.

  4. His ability to move to shortstop means he’ll continue to accumulate more defensive value.

And Betts has also been incredibly consistent in the age/WAR chart:

Through age 23: 18.1 (33rd)
Through age 26: 42.5 (21st)
Through age 29: 57.0 (28th)
Through age 31: 70.3 (24th)

Betts took a small dip through age 29 due to the COVID-shortened season and then had the worst season of his career in 2021, when he produced 4.1 WAR (still a strong season for most players), but he bounced back with 6.7, 8.6 and 4.8 WAR over the next three seasons. (That 2024 number of 4.8 WAR came in 116 games, as he sat out time because of a broken hand after getting hit by a pitch).

He’s not off to a sizzling start in 2025, but he’s still on pace for another 6-win season. If he does do that this season and next, he would be around 83 career WAR at the end of 2026, his age-33 season, which would move him into 20th in the rankings at that age — just behind where Trout sits.

There’s no guarantee how Betts will age into his late 30s, but one key attribute he has been able to maintain as he gets older is his contact ability. In fact, the lowest strikeout rates of Betts’ career have been 2024 (11.0%) and 2025 (9.2%). Trout, meanwhile, has posted his worst strikeout rates in 2023 (28.7%) and 2025 (29.8%). Those numbers point to Betts continuing to age well and post respectable offensive numbers while Trout probably will continue to post low batting averages mixed in with some home runs.

It makes Betts catching Trout feel attainable, unless Trout has a career renaissance. History might show how unlikely that is. Mantle and Ken Griffey Jr., two other all-time great center fielders, battled injuries in their 30s and were never able to reclaim their past glory. Mantle had just 11.9 WAR from age 33 on, and Griffey had just 6.4.

Where do Judge and Ohtani fit in? Back to Generation Alpha in a moment, after we look back at how the debates over past generations’ greatest players played out.

Generational breakdown

Asking “Who is the greatest player?” isn’t necessarily an easy question with a simple answer. There can be three different ways to approach this:

  1. Who has the most accumulated value in this period? We’ll use WAR, as we did above with Trout and Betts.

  2. Who has the highest peak level of performance over a shorter number of seasons? Trout dominated the sport for eight seasons.

  3. Who is the most iconic player of this generation? That’s a fuzzier notion, but it’s more about which player will be most remembered or who best defines the particular era.

We’ll dig into all three of those for each generation. Let’s start back in 1901.


The Greatest Generation (1901-27)

Top five in WAR
Walter Johnson: 155.1
Ty Cobb: 149.4
Tris Speaker: 134.4
Babe Ruth: 133.5
Eddie Collins: 124.2

Next five: Honus Wagner (113.8), Grover Alexander (111.3), Christy Mathewson (101.1), Rogers Hornsby (100.8), Nap Lajoie: 89.3

Best peak: 1. Ruth, 1921-27 (10.3 average WAR per season); 2. Johnson, 1912-19 (11.5 average WAR per season); 3. Hornsby, 1920-25 (9.9 average WAR per season, hit .397)

Most iconic player: Ruth

This generation’s biggest debate: Cobb and the dead ball era vs. Ruth and the home run

Ruth, of course, had additional value beyond 1927 that pushed him past Cobb in career WAR. But the idea that Ruth was the superior player wasn’t necessarily the consensus view until around maybe 1960 or so — and, of course, modern metrics now clearly show Ruth as the more valuable player. In the first Hall of Fame vote in 1936, Cobb received more votes and many contemporaries appreciated him in an era of more “scientific” baseball.

“The Babe was a great ballplayer, sure, but Cobb was even greater. Babe could knock your brains out, but Cobb would drive you crazy,” said Speaker, who played against both.


The Silent Generation (1928-45)

Top five in WAR
Mel Ott: 111.8
Lefty Grove: 98.0
Lou Gehrig: 91.2
Jimmie Foxx: 90.9
Charlie Gehringer: 79.9

Next five: Arky Vaughan (75.9), Carl Hubbell (68.8), Joe Cronin (64.5), Paul Waner (62.2), Babe Ruth (58.9)

Best peak: 1. Ruth, 1928-32 (9.5 average WAR per season); 2. Gehrig, 1930-36 (8.8 average WAR per season, averaged 155 RBIs); 3. Grove, 1928-33 (8.8 average WAR per season, averaged 25 wins)

Most iconic: Ruth/Gehrig/Joe DiMaggio

This generation’s biggest debate: DiMaggio vs. Ted Williams

That’s how good Ruth was: He cracked the top 10 in career value in two different generations, including that monster five-year stretch when he hit .348/.475/.701 and topped the AL four times in WAR while averaging 47 home runs and 150 RBIs. Ott’s career perfectly overlaps with this timeline, as his first full season was as a 19-year-old with the New York Giants in 1928 and his last as a regular was in 1945. He was a truly great — and underrated — player but rarely remembered now.

But the most compelling debate kicked off near the end of this generation. DiMaggio reached the majors in 1936 and the Yankees immediately won four straight World Series and then another in 1941. Williams reached the majors in 1939 and hit .406 in 1941 — and finished second in the MVP voting to DiMaggio (who had his 56-game hitting streak that season). Who was better? Are DiMaggio’s World Series rings more impressive than Williams’ statistical superiority? The player with the record hitting streak or the last player to hit .400? The debate would continue into the early years of the next generation (Williams won the Triple Crown in 1947, but DiMaggio again won MVP honors).


Baby Boomers (1946-64)

Top five in WAR
Willie Mays: 108.9
Stan Musial: 104.1
Mickey Mantle: 98.4
Warren Spahn: 92.5
Ted Williams: 87.7

Next five: Eddie Mathews (85.9), Henry Aaron (80.8), Robin Roberts (80.6), Duke Snider (65.9), Richie Ashburn (64.3)

Best peak: 1. Mays, 1954-64 (9.4 average WAR per season for over a decade); 2. Mantle, 1955-58 (10.2 average WAR per season); 3. Williams, 1946-1949 (9.4 average WAR per season)

Most iconic: Mantle

This generation’s biggest debate: Mays vs. Mantle

Mays over Musial and Mantle as the best player of the Baby Boomer generation isn’t a slam dunk. Musial gets two of his three MVP awards in this time frame and Mantle gets all three of his; Mays won only one (with his second coming in 1965). Musial also finished second in the MVP voting four times and had a slew of other top-10 finishes (as did Mays, of course). At his best, Mantle was a better hitter than Mays:

Mantle, 1954-64: .312/.440/.605, 397 HRs, 185 OPS+, 622 batting runs above average

Mays, 1954-64: .318/.392/.601, 429 HRs, 166 OPS+, 561 batting runs above average

As for iconic, it’s Mantle over Mays, Musial and Williams with Jackie Robinson deserving an honorable mention as a different sort of icon. Musial might have been the most popular player across the sport at the time. Mantle was in the World Series almost every year with the Yankees, won seven of them, and even now, his baseball cards still carry the ultimate premium. Ask any Baby Boomer: The Yankees defined the 1950s and Mantle defined the Yankees.


Generation X (1965-80)

Top five in WAR
Joe Morgan: 88.8
Tom Seaver: 88.8
Gaylord Perry: 84.0
Phil Niekro: 82.5
Carl Yastrzemski: 80.3

Next five: Ferguson Jenkins (78.2), Pete Rose (76.7), Johnny Bench (72.9), Reggie Jackson (70.0), Rod Carew (69.8)

Best peak: 1. Morgan, 1972-76 (9.6 average WAR per season); 2. Bob Gibson, 1965-70 (7.6 average WAR per season, led all players in WAR 1968, 1969 and 1970); 3. Mike Schmidt, 1974-80 (8.2 average WAR per season)

Most iconic: Rose or Reggie … or Nolan Ryan?

This generation’s biggest debate: Rose or Reggie … or Nolan Ryan?

This generation shows how peak value can cement a player’s legacy. Gibson didn’t have the career value of fellow pitchers Perry or Niekro, but his legacy is much stronger. In fact, that five-year peak would be even higher except he broke his leg in 1967, only to return and win three games in the World Series.

The most iconic debate is the interesting one. Throughout the 1970s, Rose and Reggie were the towering figures in the game — Charlie Hustle and Mr. October. They weren’t the best players, but Rose was the most popular, Jackson more controversial. Even Rose’s recent reinstatement shows how he continues to impact the headlines, even in death. Ryan would be a late entry to the icon discussion. He didn’t really become an iconic figure until late in his career with the Texas Rangers in the late 1980s and early 1990s — when he kept racking up no-hitters and strikeouts deep into his 40s — but he now possesses a larger-than-life persona that might even exceed Rose and Jackson.


Millennials (1981-96)

Top five in WAR
Rickey Henderson: 95.7
Cal Ripken: 88.8
Wade Boggs: 88.2
Barry Bonds: 83.6
Roger Clemens: 80.8

Next five: Ryne Sandberg (67.1), Ozzie Smith (66.9), Tim Raines (66.5), Lou Whitaker (65.1), Alan Trammell (63.0)

Best peak: 1. Bonds, 1990-96 (8.6 average WAR per season, three MVP awards); 2. Greg Maddux, 1992-96 (8.1 average WAR per season, four Cy Young Awards); 3. Roger Clemens, 1986-92 (8.3 average WAR per season, three Cy Youngs)

Most iconic: Ken Griffey Jr.

This generation’s biggest debate: Bonds vs. Griffey

Look … even pre-alleged-PED Bonds was a better player than Griffey. Bonds’ 1993 season, right before the offensive explosion across the sport, was a season for the ages: .336/.458/.677, 9.9 WAR. He had an OPS+ of 206; from 1962 through 1993, only four players had an OPS+ over 200: Willie McCovey in 1969, George Brett in 1980 and Bonds in 1992 and ’93.

From 1991 to 1998, Griffey’s peak, he averaged 7.2 WAR per season and led AL position players three times in WAR. From 1990 to 1998, Bonds averaged 8.5 WAR and led NL position players seven times in WAR. Bonds got on base more and was the better base stealer, and though he didn’t play center field, he was a spectacular left fielder (especially earlier in his career with the Pittsburgh Pirates). In those pre-WAR days, the debate was a lot more hotly contested and Griffey was generally regarded as the better player.

But most iconic? The Kid in a landslide.


Generation Z (1997-2012)

Top five in WAR
Alex Rodriguez: 107.0
Albert Pujols: 91.5
Barry Bonds: 79.1
Chipper Jones: 76.2
Randy Johnson: 74.1

Next five: Pedro Martinez (71.6), Scott Rolen (70.4), Derek Jeter (69.9), Roy Halladay (66.5), Carlos Beltran (65.5)

Best peak: 1. Bonds, 2000-04 (10.2 average WAR per season, four MVP awards); 2. Johnson, 1999-2002 (9.5 average WAR per season, four straight Cy Young Awards, averaged 354 strikeouts); 3. Martinez, 1997-2000 (9.4 average WAR per season, 2.16 ERA)

Most iconic: Jeter

This generation’s biggest debate: Jeter vs. A-Rod

This era might top the others in terms of peak performances. We could have also listed Rodriguez, who averaged 8.3 WAR and 46 home runs from 1998 to 2005 (and that doesn’t include 9.4 WAR seasons in 1996 and 2007). Or Pujols, who had seven consecutive 8-plus WAR seasons from 2003 to 2009. Or Mark McGwire’s four-year run from 1996 to 1999, when he averaged 61 home runs. Or Sammy Sosa averaging 58 home runs in a five-year span. Or Ichiro Suzuki’s incredible 10 consecutive seasons with 200 hits.

But the Jeter/A-Rod debate takes in everything about this complicated era. In the end, Rodriguez had the numbers and Jeter had the rings and the fist pumps from the top step of the dugout.


Generation Alpha (2010-25)

Top five in WAR
Mike Trout: 85.8
Mookie Betts: 72.2
Max Scherzer: 71.9
Clayton Kershaw: 70.1
Justin Verlander: 65.8

Next five: Paul Goldschmidt (63.9), Freddie Freeman (62.7), Manny Machado (59.1), Nolan Arenado (57.4), Aaron Judge (56.4)

Best peak: 1. Trout, 2012-19 (9.0 average WAR per season); 2. Shohei Ohtani (2021-??); 3. Aaron Judge (2022-??)

Most iconic: Umm …

Now we get back to Generation Alpha. There seems to be some disagreement on when it begins — maybe it’s 2010, maybe 2012 or 2013. And maybe it ends in 2025 or 2027. But for this exercise, we started in 2010, which is convenient when discussing Trout and Betts since their entire careers encompass this time frame.

Trout, even sitting out all that time in recent seasons, holds the lead in career WAR. What’s interesting is he’s not yet at 400 home runs, 1,000 RBIs or close to 2,000 hits, so his career counting totals lag behind players with similar WAR.

His value at his peak was posting high on-base percentages and high slugging percentages in the 2010s, when offense was somewhat down for much of the decade. His career wRC+, which makes those era-related adjustments, is 168, seventh all-time behind Ruth, Williams, Bonds, Gehrig, Hornsby and Mantle. That’s with a cutoff of 5,000 plate appearances. If we lower it to 4,500 plate appearances, Judge comes in third behind Ruth and Williams.

Ahh, yes, Judge and Ohtani. Both are close to Trout and Betts in age (Judge is only a few months younger than Trout, and Ohtani was born in 1994, making him three years younger). Neither made their debut until halfway through this generation and are thus currently significantly behind in career value — Judge is at 56.4, Ohtani at 46.4. Both are accumulating it at Secretariat-like speed, but even if we extend this generational period a few more years, they won’t catch Trout or even Betts in WAR within the time frame.

But most iconic? That’s a debate. Trout, despite the MVP honors, has one postseason appearance way back in 2014, a bunch of losing seasons on a franchise that failed to build around him, and — fair or not — never had that undefinable “it’ factor the way Griffey did.

Maybe the most iconic is Judge, although he has never won a World Series either, struggled for the most part in his playoff appearances and his peak seasons are, for now, limited to 2017, 2022, 2024 and 2025. Still, he seems to be improving at 33 years old; who knows how many more historic seasons he still has in him. Maybe it will be Ohtani, who is now in the fifth season of his unicorn status. He has pitched in three of those seasons, had the first 50/50 season in 2024 that earned him his third MVP award and now he’s maybe on his way to a fourth MVP, especially if he returns to pitching later this season, which is still the plan.

Or maybe it’s even Betts. He has played for two of the sport’s glamour franchises: the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers. He has won an MVP, six Gold Gloves and seven Silver Sluggers. He’s also won three World Series titles — and is still going strong. He’s like Jeter in that he’ll do whatever it takes to win, like moving from the outfield to second base or shortstop (and he already has more career WAR than Jeter).

The answer? Well, the answer is we still have a lot of baseball for these guys to play — and that makes us all fortunate baseball fans.

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Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 2

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Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 2

Ohio State coach Ryan Day was candid in his postgame assessment of the Buckeyes’ 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling on Saturday, acknowledging it was “not a matchup game.”

That was the theme of Week 2, which featured multiple contenders playing FCS opponents or other unranked, lower-level teams. That doesn’t mean there weren’t a few lessons learned.

“Regardless of your opponent, you can see good execution,” Day said. “Whether it’s penalties, assignments, spacing, timing — there’s a crispness to anybody you play.”

Not everyone demonstrated that crispness on Saturday against weaker competition — and it changed the playoff pecking order. (Here’s lookin’ at you, Clemson.) This list is fluid — and it should be early in the season. It is a ranking based on what each team has done to date — not last year or what it might do in the coming weeks. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.

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Ranking | Bracket

Projecting the top 12

Why they could be here: The win against Texas gives the Buckeyes a case for the top spot, as does the eye test, as quarterback Julian Sayin continues to flourish with his accuracy, consistency and minimal mistakes in his first year as a starter. The defense under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia continues to look stifling. Ohio State also benefited this week from Clemson’s struggles against Troy, because it takes some of the shine off LSU’s season-opening road win against Clemson. While Clemson struggled, Texas reasserted itself. The selection committee members would include those results in their discussions as they determine who had the better Week 1 win. With Clemson dropping out of this week’s top 12, that honor now goes to Ohio State.

Why they could be lower: The committee could still believe that LSU is the better team and reward it for a season-opening road win. Ohio State manhandled Grambling from the onset, a glorified practice in the Shoe against a SWAC team that trailed 35-0 at the half. The committee would consider that both of Ohio State’s wins were at home.

Need to know: The selection committee isn’t supposed to consider last year’s results, so Ohio State’s 2024 national title isn’t a part of its deliberations, nor is the Associated Press poll ranking. The group evaluates the teams based on their current résumés, so how Texas fares will eventually impact how much the committee values that season-opening win against the Longhorns.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. The Buckeyes will again have home-field advantage for another marquee matchup, and ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State a 61.5% chance to win.


Why they could be here: The Canes’ win against Notre Dame in the season opener separates them from the teams ranked below. They also showed no signs of a letdown against FCS Bethune-Cookman on Saturday. Quarterback Carson Beck completed 22 of his first 24 passes for two touchdowns and no interceptions, and the Canes also accounted for three touchdowns on the ground — a balanced offense the Wildcats had no answer for. The biggest difference for Miami through two games, though, has been a dominant defense.

Why they could be lower: The committee could still reward LSU for winning on the road, whereas both of Miami’s wins were at home. The Seminoles’ win against Bama will carry weight in the room as long as the Tide keep winning, but the reality is that Miami’s win against Notre Dame looks better — at least through two weeks.

Need to know: With Clemson struggling against Troy and losing to LSU, Miami now has the highest chance in the ACC to reach the playoff (46.5%) and earn a first-round bye as one of the committee’s top four teams (14.6%).

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. The Canes get rival Florida at home later this month, but they have to travel to Tallahassee, where the Seminoles have quickly asserted themselves as a team to take seriously this year.


Why they could be here: LSU’s win at Clemson is still separating the Tigers from other contenders, but it lost some of its impact after Clemson had an underwhelming defensive performance and its offense was stagnant for a second straight week — this time against Troy. LSU had its own issues offensively against Louisiana Tech, which was able to put pressure on quarterback Garrett Nussmeier throughout the game. LSU struggled to establish the run and push the ball downfield through the bulk of three quarters against Louisiana Tech. While LSU struggled, both Ohio State and Miami left no doubt they were the better team.

Why they could be higher: The selection committee does consider factors such as where the game was played, and of the top three teams, LSU is the only one with a win on the road against what is probably still a CFP Top 25 team.

Need to know: The CFP selection committee this year is using a metric called “record strength” to help determine how a team performed against its schedule. LSU entered Week 2 ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, second only to Ohio State.

Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Ole Miss. The Rebels just beat Kentucky 30-23 for their first SEC win and have a 69.8% chance to beat LSU, according to ESPN’s FPI.


Why they could be here: The Seminoles are still scoring. FSU racked up 70 points against FCS team East Texas A&M — through three quarters. It finished with a 77-3 victory. This FSU team is doing everything it can to make the selection committee forget the 2024 team that won two games. Florida State’s Week 1 win against Alabama was one of the most notable nationally and will continue to help the Noles if the Tide finish as a Top 25 CFP team. The committee also compares common opponents, and although beating East Texas A&M will be a moot point on Selection Day, it’s at least interesting to note that fellow ACC team SMU set the bar in Week 1 when it beat the Lions 42-13.

Why they could be lower: The committee tracks wins against FCS opponents and rewards teams that played tougher opponents. Beating the now 0-2 Lions from the Southland Conference — even with a sledgehammer — isn’t going to earn the Seminoles any bonus points in the room.

Need to know: If the Seminoles can win the unofficial state title by beating rivals Miami and Florida, they could be competing for one of the top four spots and an at-large bid, assuming they finish with one loss or better. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives FSU less than a 50% chance to beat each in-state rival.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Clemson. ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson a 69.9% chance to win. If that’s FSU’s only regular-season loss, though, the two could meet again in the ACC title game.


Why they could be here: The Ducks embarrassed Oklahoma State — they led 41-3 at the half — giving them a win against a struggling Big 12 program. The selection committee would view this as a better win than the lopsided beatdown the Ducks handed FCS opponent Montana State in Week 1. The committee respects sheer dominance, though, as evidenced by last year’s evaluation of Indiana, and for the second straight week, Oregon scored at least 59 points.

Why they could be lower: Both of the Ducks’ wins have come against significantly weaker opponents, and both were at home.

Need to know: Oregon won’t play a ranked opponent until it travels to Penn State later this month, and if the Ducks don’t win that game, their best chances to impress the selection committee against CFP Top 25 opponents during the regular season will likely be against Indiana and USC.

Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 67.7% chance to win — and it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule that they’re not favored to win.


Why they could be here: Penn State shut out FIU and played a clean game with no penalties or turnovers — the first time the program has done that since Oct. 25, 2008, at Ohio State — but every team ranked above the Nittany Lions here has a better win on its résumé.

Why they could be lower: There are still some questions about Penn State’s offense. The Nittany Lions converted just 3 of 12 third downs and were 2-of-4 on fourth down. They also had a slow start — 10-0 halftime lead — and the pass protection from the offensive line was shaky at times.

Need to know: If Penn State goes 0-2 against Oregon and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions might have only one win against a CFP Top 25 opponent (Indiana). That’s a scenario where a weak nonconference lineup (Nevada, FIU and Villanova) could haunt them.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 61.5% chance to win.


Why they could be here: The Vols have scored at least 45 points in back-to-back games. They have not missed a step without quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The season-opening win against Syracuse was respectable, but the Orange needed overtime to beat UConn in Week 2, so the jury is still out on the true value of that nonconference win. It’s still better, though, than what some other contenders are lining up and knocking down. That wasn’t the case on Saturday, when the Vols hammered FCS opponent East Tennessee State.

Why they could be higher: There could be a debate between the Vols and Penn State, as the Nittany Lions are the only team ranked above Tennessee without a Power 4 win. Tennessee’s win against a Southern Conference team won’t impress the committee, but unlike Penn State, the Vols have been consistently dominant on offense.

Need to know: Tennessee has the eighth-best chance to make the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff predictor (51%).

Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Georgia. The Vols’ offense has been more productive than the Bulldogs’ so far, but ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 60% chance to win.


Why they could be here: The Bulldogs are right where they’re supposed to be — undefeated heading into Tennessee — but it hasn’t always been pretty. Georgia closed as 46.5-point favorites against Austin Peay and was clinging to an 11-point halftime lead, its narrowest against a non-FBS opponent since 2016 against Nicholls State. Wins against Marshall and Austin Peay wouldn’t stack up well in the selection committee meeting room against some of the wins earned by the teams ranked above the Bulldogs.

Why they could be lower: Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton didn’t have a single passing touchdown against Austin Peay. He didn’t need to with the Bulldogs’ four rushing touchdowns, but the Dawgs were also stuffed to end the first half after a first-and-goal from the 1-yard line.

Need to know: Georgia has the best chance to earn a No. 1 seed (79.7%) and a first-round bye (50.7%), according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. If Arch Manning continues to improve and can find ways to execute the explosive plays he had on Saturday against SEC competition, the Longhorns will again be one of the toughest teams to beat in the SEC.


Why they could be here: Arch Manning and the Longhorns got what they needed — a convincing win against an overmatched opponent and a shot of confidence. But a lopsided win against now 0-2 San Jose State isn’t going to give Texas the boost it needs in the selection committee meeting room. The Longhorns won’t have another opportunity against a ranked opponent until their SEC opener on Oct. 4 at Florida — if the Gators are still a Top 25 team after losing at home to South Florida. The offensive improvement from Week 1 to Week 2, though, is something committee members would notice and continue to track. After a slow start, the Longhorns scored three touchdowns in three minutes and 12 seconds. Manning had four touchdowns on 10 completions at one point in the first half.

Why they could be lower: It’s hard to see the committee putting Texas lower during a week in which other contenders also played lower-caliber opponents.

Need to know: If Texas doesn’t lock up a spot in the CFP as the SEC champ, it should still have a strong enough résumé as a two-loss team to earn an at-large bid. Where it gets a little tricky is with a third loss, and that’s where not having a nonconference win against a Power 4 opponent would enter the committee’s discussion. ESPN’s FPI, though, projects Texas to finish as a two-loss team.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Georgia. This could be a preview of the SEC championship game (again). ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 54% chance to win.


Why they could be here: The Irish were idle following their 27-24 season-opening loss at Miami, and the selection committee doesn’t typically move teams that don’t play — unless it’s a result of shuffling around them. The loss to the Canes didn’t knock Notre Dame out of the top 10 because it was close and on the road to a ranked team capable of winning the ACC.

Why they could be lower: Simply because other teams have won two games.

Need to know: How Notre Dame’s opponents fare is critical to the selection process, and it helped the Irish (albeit slightly for now) that Boise State rebounded from its season-opening loss to South Florida. The better the Broncos play, the more respect Notre Dame will earn in the committee meeting room if it beats them on Oct. 4.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. USC. ESPN’s FPI projects Notre Dame will win out and has the second-best chance to do so behind Ohio State. The rivalry game against the Trojans, though, is the closest thing remaining to a coin toss. ESPN’s FPI gives the Irish a 56.5% chance to win.


Why they could be here: For the second straight week, the Illini scored at least 45 points, and this time they did it on the road against a respectable Duke team that won nine games last year. It was a convincing nonconference win on the same night South Carolina struggled to get its offense going early at home against South Carolina State. Iowa State garnered some consideration for this spot after its rivalry win against Iowa, but it didn’t help the Cyclones that Kansas State lost to Army (which also lost to Tarleton State). The selection committee considers opponents’ opponents. The Illini’s win wasn’t flawless, but they’re a veteran team that was able to capitalize on Duke’s mistakes on a night when other contenders either beat up on weaker teams or struggled against them.

Why they could be lower: Illinois led by just one at halftime and was aided by five Duke turnovers. South Carolina has a similar nonconference win against an ACC team, as it opened with a win against Virginia Tech, but the Hokies also lost to Vanderbilt on Saturday.

Need to know: Illinois doesn’t play Michigan, Oregon or Penn State during the regular season. That doesn’t mean the schedule is easy, but it’s manageable enough to earn an at-large spot if Illinois looks the part of a playoff team and doesn’t win the Big Ten.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Ohio State. Illinois gets the Buckeyes at home, but ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State an 81.8% chance to win.


Why they could be here: A nonconference win against a ranked Big Ten opponent will earn respect in the selection committee meeting room. It also came on a day when Arizona State struggled against Mississippi State, one of the SEC’s lower-tier teams, and Florida lost to South Florida at home. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s defense got enough pressure on Michigan freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood to disrupt the Wolverines’ passing game. Sooners quarterback John Mateer accounted for two rushing touchdowns and one passing touchdown but wasn’t flawless.

Why they could be lower: The Sooners got an upgrade in Mateer, but he can’t do everything. The dual-threat quarterback led the team in passing and rushing, but Oklahoma will need more from its ground game against the SEC schedule.

Need to know: This head-to-head result could come into play later if the Sooners and Michigan are competing for an at-large spot. It’s a tiebreaker in the committee meeting room, and as long as their records are the same, OU will have the edge on Michigan. If Oklahoma is going to stay in the playoff race, though, it has to move up in the ranking, because right now it would be bumped out to make room for the Big 12 champ or the highest-ranked champion from the Group of 5.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives Texas an 82.9% chance to win.

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 LSU (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 USF (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Iowa State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Penn State
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Tennessee
No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Georgia

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 USF/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Iowa State/No. 6 Penn State winner vs. No. 3 LSU
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Tennessee winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

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How big wins by Oregon, Oklahoma and South Florida shuffle the bowl picture

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How big wins by Oregon, Oklahoma and South Florida shuffle the bowl picture

While Week 2 of the college football season did not offer the blockbuster matchups we saw in Week 1, it nonetheless packed a significant punch.

The biggest blows were delivered by South Florida, Oklahoma and Oregon, which scored significant wins that boosted their standing in the College Football Playoff pecking order. But there were plenty of other results — some upsets, some near-misses and some less-than-stellar victories — that impacted the overall bowl picture.

As in last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.

We’re here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.

Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20

Times and networks TBD.

Bonagura: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Oregon

Bonagura: No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 6 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Georgia

Bonagura: No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Texas
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State at No. 7 Texas

Bonagura: No. 9 Utah at No. 8 Florida State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Notre Dame

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: Welcome to the party, South Florida. After dominating Boise State in Week 1, the Bulls backed that up by shocking Florida 18-16. That’s two wins against ranked opponents to start the season, and while the jury remains out on how good Boise State and Florida actually are, no other Group of 5 team can claim as good a start. And for that reason, USF earns the No. 5 projected-champion spot this week.

The other big move this week is Oklahoma, which jumped into picture with a strong showing against Michigan. The John Mateer pickup has worked out as designed so far, and with Temple, Auburn and Kent State up next on the schedule, the expectation here is that the Sooners will take a 5-0 record into the Red River Rivalry game with Texas on Oct. 11.

Schlabach: Most of the top CFP contenders beat up on lesser opponents this week, but there was some shakeup in my top 12 because of a couple of surprising results. I dropped Clemson and Utah for Oklahoma and Iowa State. The Tigers struggled to put away Troy 27-16 at home (the Trojans led 16-0 late in the second quarter), which was probably a result of a hangover from a season-opening loss to LSU.

Utah is still one of the top teams in the Big 12, but I thought it was appropriate to reward the Cyclones for their 16-13 victory over Iowa on Saturday. Likewise for Oklahoma, which was impressive in its 24-13 win over Michigan at home. With a stingy defense and Mateer running the offense, the Sooners could be a serious CFP player this season.

South Florida also gets my Group of 5 conference champion pick after it stunned Florida in the Swamp. If USF can somehow make it three in a row at No. 5 Miami next week, it would be in the driver’s seat for a CFP bid.


CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 31

CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Miami

Thursday, Jan. 1

CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Penn State

CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 8 Florida State vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State

CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 LSU
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State vs. No. 2 LSU

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: Oregon didn’t just beat Oklahoma State — the Ducks demoralized the Cowboys. No living person was around the last time Oklahoma State lost by as many points, underscoring how lopsided the 69-3 win was. A quarterfinal matchup between the Ducks and Texas would be appointment viewing, but there are really no bad possibilities for this round — at least at this point in the season. This is another benefit of the change to not grant the byes to the top four conference champions. It ensures better matchups in the quarters.

Schlabach: The top six teams in my bracket remain unchanged, although I did shuffle the order after Georgia looked sloppy in its 28-6 victory against FCS program Austin Peay at home. The Bulldogs lost two fumbles and couldn’t score from the 1-yard line on three straight plays at the end of the first half. It wasn’t the kind of performance Georgia coach Kirby Smart wanted going into next week’s SEC opener at Tennessee.

I dropped the Bulldogs from No. 4 to No. 6 in the seedings, behind No. 4 Miami and No. 5 Oregon. The Ducks had one of the most impressive performances of the week with their 69-3 demolition of Oklahoma State. Oregon piled up 631 yards of offense and returned two interceptions for touchdowns, handing Mike Gundy the worst loss in his 20-year tenure at his alma mater.


CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 8

CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 LSU

Friday, Jan. 9

CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Monday, Jan. 19

CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: As the SEC and Big Ten arms race continues, just imagine the bragging rights that will come when one of the conferences sends two teams to the championship game for the first time in the expanded playoff era. Both leagues have a chance to achieve that this year, but right now — even though it’s way too early in the season to have a real sense of anything — the Big Ten looks like it has better odds. My current projection has Ohio State and Oregon playing for it all, a repeat of last year’s quarterfinal win by the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl.

Schlabach: Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon rolled this week, while LSU looked a little lethargic in its 23-7 win against Louisiana Tech. The Tigers might have still been celebrating their 17-10 win at Clemson in Week 1. They’re going to have to be more consistent if they’re going to be a legitimate CFP title contender.

Like Kyle, I am projecting a rematch of last season’s Oregon-Ohio State Rose Bowl, but I have them meeting in the semifinals, with the Buckeyes again prevailing.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Alabama State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Arizona vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Troy

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Marshall vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Auburn vs. Duke
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. Virginia

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Old Dominion vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Boise State vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Texas State vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Jacksonville State

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: UCF vs. Washington State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico State

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Boise State vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Navy

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Kansas vs. Iowa
Schlabach: BYU vs. Minnesota

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Temple vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Arkansas State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Duke vs. Memphis

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Louisville vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: NC State vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Tulane

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Texas Tech

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network

Bonagura: Toledo vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Wyoming vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Texas State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC

Bonagura: SMU vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Texas A&M

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: TCU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: TCU vs. Ole Miss

Monday, Dec. 29

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. North Carolina

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Houston vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Colorado vs. Liberty

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Auburn

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Washington
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Illinois vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Alabama

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Cal
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Cal

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Baylor vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Missouri

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Carolina

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Arizona State

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Illini, Noles crack AP top 10; USF enters at No. 18

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Illini, Noles crack AP top 10; USF enters at No. 18

Ohio State, Penn State and LSU remained the top three teams in The Associated Press Top 25 college football poll Sunday, while Oregon is back in the top five and South Florida is ranked for the first time in seven years.

There was some movement inside the top 10, but the biggest changes came from Nos. 11 to 25.

Ohio State, whose 70-0 win over Grambling was among a bevy of weekend blowouts, received 57 of the 65 first-place votes from the media panel. Penn State got five first-place votes, and LSU got two.

No. 4 Oregon, which thrashed Oklahoma State, received the other first place-vote and flip-flopped with Georgia. The Bulldogs’ uninspired win over FCS foe Austin Peay caused them to slip to No. 6 behind Miami.

Texas, Notre Dame, Illinois and Florida State round out the top 10, with the latter two teams in the top 10 for the first time this season.

Illinois has its first top-10 ranking since it was No. 7 in December 2001. Florida State, meanwhile, climbed four spots to its highest ranking since it was No. 10 in the 2024 preseason poll.

Clemson, which trailed Troy 16-0 midway through the second quarter before winning 27-16, slipped from No. 8 to No. 12.

Oklahoma earned a five-rung promotion to No. 13, its highest ranking in two years, after its win over Michigan. The Wolverines dropped to No. 23. Tennessee jumped seven spots to No. 15, and No. 16 Texas A&M and No. 17 Ole Miss each moved up three.

The biggest upward mover was No. 18 South Florida, which was eight spots out of the Top 25 last week. The Bulls pulled the upset of the day with their 18-16 win over then-No. 13 Florida. That followed their 34-7 home win over then-No. 25 Boise State.

The Bulls’ ascent under third-year coach Alex Golesh is more of a revival than a breakthrough. They have their first ranking since 2018 under Charlie Strong. Jim Leavitt had the 2008 team as high as No. 10, and his 2007 team spent three straight weeks in the top 10 and was No. 2 after a 6-0 start.

No. 24 Auburn and No. 25 Missouri cracked the rankings along with USF.

Auburn followed a two-touchdown win at Baylor with an easy victory over Ball State and is in the Top 25 for the first time under third-year coach Hugh Freeze.

Until Sunday, No. 19 Alabama and Auburn had not appeared in the Top 25 at the same time since November 2021.

Missouri, which appeared in all but two polls last season, is back in after a win over Border War rival Kansas.

Arizona State, which was ranked 12th, Florida (13th) and SMU (17th) all tumbled out of the Top 25.

The Sun Devils erased a 17-point deficit and led in the final minute before losing at Mississippi State. Florida’s loss put heat back on coach Billy Napier. SMU also blew a lead in the last minute and lost to Baylor in two overtimes.

The 16-team SEC is the first league to have 11 teams in the Top 25.

CONFERENCE CALL

SEC: 11 teams (Nos. 3, 6, 7, 11, 13, 15, 16, 17, 19, 24, 25)
Big Ten: 6 (Nos. 1, 2, 4, 9, 22, 23)
ACC: 3 (Nos. 5, 10, 12)
Big 12: 3 (Nos. 14, 20, 21)
American: 1 (No. 18)
Independent: 1 (No. 8)

RANKED VS. RANKED

No. 18 South Florida at No. 5 Miami: Bulls will try to become the fifth team, and first since Miami in 1987, to open a season with three wins over ranked opponents.

No. 6 Georgia at No. 15 Tennessee: First big test for Volunteers QB Joey Aguilar. Bulldogs go for ninth straight win in the series.

No. 16 Texas A&M at No. 8 Notre Dame: Irish out to avoid second 0-2 start in four years. Jeremiyah Love scored late tiebreaking touchdown for Notre Dame in last year’s season-opening meeting in College Station.

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