Which NL powerhouse has the edge? Sizing up 7 games in 14 days between the Dodgers and Mets
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Jorge Castillo
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Jorge Castillo
ESPN Staff Writer
- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
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Alden Gonzalez
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Alden Gonzalez
ESPN Staff Writer
- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the L.A. Rams for ESPN from 2016 to 2018 and the L.A. Angels for MLB.com from 2012 to 2016.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets are about to see a whole lot of each other.
The defending World Series champions and the team they beat to win the National League pennant last fall play three games this weekend at Citi Field and four games at Dodger Stadium starting June 2. For those of you scoring at home, that’s seven matchups in a span of 14 days.
Both teams enter Friday’s opener in back-and-forth battles for first place in their respective divisions. How will their head-to-head play dictate the state of the NL East and West? Will they clash again come October? And who has the edge — both for now and if/when they cross paths in the playoffs?
ESPN MLB writers Jorge Castillo (based in New York) and Alden Gonzalez (based in Los Angeles) answer a few key questions about the Mets and Dodgers.
What has stood out most to you about each team’s strong start to the season?
Castillo: The starting rotation was identified as the Mets’ weakness before the season, especially after Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas sustained injuries during spring training. That has not been the case so far. Instead, the Mets own the best rotation ERA in the majors with a quintet of Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning toeing the rubber. The group has stumbled recently, and its innings total ranks in the bottom half of the majors. But the collective performance has allowed the Mets to overcome slow starts from various position players — most notably, Juan Soto.
Gonzalez: The emergence of three young players in particular: Dalton Rushing, Hyeseong Kim and Andy Pages. Rushing, the team’s most promising prospect outside of Roki Sasaki, torched Triple-A and prompted the Dodgers to cut ties with their longtime backup catcher, Austin Barnes. Kim, signed out of South Korea last offseason, did the same, then performed so well in the majors the Dodgers swallowed the remaining $13 million or so in Chris Taylor’s contract. Pages, meanwhile, went from being uncertain if he’d crack the Opening Day roster to establishing himself as an everyday player.
Their success underscores what has made the Dodgers the Dodgers: No matter how bloated their payroll, how poor their draft position or how often they trade prospects for veterans, they always seem to have that next wave coming.
Despite all the positives so far, what is your biggest concern about each team?
Castillo: Regression seems inevitable for the Mets’ starting rotation (unless it’s going to maintain an ERA under 3 all season). Add that to the recent bullpen injuries — namely losing A.J. Minter for the season — and the defense’s troubles, and run prevention could become a bigger issue for the Mets as the season progresses. Defensive lapses were apparent during last weekend’s Subway Series against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium, when Mark Vientos made two errors that cost runs and Pete Alonso’s errant throw allowed the go-ahead run to score in the finale. Francisco Lindor, a perennial Gold Glove contender, hasn’t been himself at shortstop, and the corner outfield spots are below average. It’s a recipe that would call for more offense.
Gonzalez: When the Dodgers concluded their fourth homestand of the season earlier this week, 14 pitchers resided on their injured list — seven in the rotation, seven in the bullpen. Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Sasaki are all nursing shoulder injuries with nebulous timetables, severely compromising the rotation and forcing the bullpen to lead the majors in innings. That bullpen, meanwhile, is without four critical high-leverage options in Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen and Kirby Yates, leaving Dodgers manager Dave Roberts with few, if any, trusted right-handed options to hold leads late. Dodgers pitchers continue to get hurt at an alarming rate. And not even this team can overcome that rate of injury.
Who is one x-factor who could make or break each team’s season?
Castillo: Soto, by most standards, is not having a bad season at the plate. Many players would gladly take an OPS over .800. But he signed a $765 million contract to be one of the best hitters in the sport, and he’s been far from one of those. If Soto can unlock his usual form, and there’s nothing in his track record to suggest he won’t, the Mets’ lineup becomes a different animal. Soto, at his best, makes hitters around him better. He works pitchers. He shuffles and he swaggers. The Mets haven’t seen that version yet. The body language isn’t quite right and the production isn’t there. That’ll need to change for them to become legitimate pennant contenders in a loaded National League.
Gonzalez: Shohei Ohtani has been just as much an offensive force as he was last year, when he became the first full-time designated hitter to collect an MVP Award. But there’s a whole other half waiting to be unlocked. Ohtani is going through his pitching progression slowly. At this point it doesn’t seem as if he’ll join the rotation until sometime in July at the earliest — 22 months after his second UCL repair. The Dodgers backed him off his progression ahead of the season opener, they say, in hopes of not wearing him out and providing him with the best chance of being a factor in October. If he looks anything like he did on the mound from 2021 to 2023, he will be.
Who has tougher competition to win their division: The Mets in the NL East or the Dodgers in the NL West?
Castillo: The NL West has more playoff contenders (four to three), but the quality of competition in the NL East is better. The Philadelphia Phillies, the defending division champs, arguably have the best starting rotation in the majors with an experienced lineup that has been through it all. And the Atlanta Braves are back on track, reaching .500 after their ugly 0-7 start to the season, without much contribution from their two best players. Spencer Strider, activated from the injured list this week, has made only two starts. Ronald Acuna Jr. hasn’t played in a game yet. All three teams are real October threats.
Gonzalez: It’s the NL West, because that fourth legitimate playoff contender could end up making a big difference in a tight race. The Mets still have a combined 16 games remaining against the rebuilding Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins. The Dodgers can only beat up on the Colorado Rockies, who they’ll face 10 more times. And while the Phillies are great and the Braves are more dangerous than their record indicates, one can make a case for the San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants all being just as good, if not better. Of even more relevance is what the Dodgers will face in the ensuing weeks — 26 straight games against teams with a winning record, with the last 10 coming against division rivals.
These teams play seven times in the next 14 days. Give us your prediction for the series and the stars.
Castillo: This is shaping up to be a battle between a struggling pitching staff (Dodgers) and a struggling offense (Mets). Let’s go with Dodgers 4, Mets 3, because the Dodgers have one more home game. The Dodgers’ big three of Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman will power them to a season series victory.
Gonzalez: Betts got off to a slow start offensively, but he recently unlocked something in his swing and has started to round back into form of late. He’ll put his imprint on these matchups, but the Mets will win most of the games for a simple reason: On days when Yoshinobu Yamamoto does not pitch, the Dodgers don’t really know what they’ll get from their starting pitchers.
Which pitching rotation will be better come October: The Dodgers’ star-studded but oft-injured group or the Mets’ currently producing but lesser-known starters?
Castillo: It’s not even Memorial Day. These rotations could look completely different come October. But, for now, I’ll take the Dodgers. They’re bound to have at least a few of those star pitchers healthy for the postseason. If not, something went terribly, terribly wrong.
Gonzalez: The Dodgers’ priority this offseason wasn’t Soto. It was Snell. They chased him early and lavished him with $182 million because they knew pairing Snell with Glasnow and Yamamoto would give them a devastating trio for October. If those three are available then, I’m taking the Dodgers. But there’s no telling if that will be the case.
If these teams earn a rematch of the 2024 NLCS this October, who are you taking and why?
Castillo: Assuming health, the Dodgers because they’re better in every department.
Gonzalez: The Mets played the Dodgers tough last year, then signed the new Ted Williams. The Dodgers beat them despite a shorthanded rotation, then added arguably the two most coveted starting pitchers in Snell and Sasaki. Now the Mets and Dodgers are separated by one game, with near-identical run differentials. More than four months of the regular season remain. I plead the Fifth.
While fans in Edmonton and Dallas are always singing about how they have friends in low places, only one of them has the high ground in the Western Conference finals. And that’s the Oilers after their 6-1 win Sunday in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead.
With the series tied heading into Sunday, the objective for Game 3 was to gain a firm grasp of the conference finals, and the Oilers did just that by having five players with multipoint performances. As for the Stars, losing Game 3 left them trailing a series for the second time this postseason, with the only other such occurrence coming after Game 1 against the Colorado Avalanche in the first round.
Now that the Oilers are in control of the series, what does it mean for them going forward? What must the Stars do differently ahead of Game 4 for them to return home tied rather than a game away from elimination? Ryan S. Clark and Greg Wyshynski examine those questions while delving into what lies ahead for two teams that not only faced each other in the conference finals last season but between them have been involved in every conference final since 2020.
Edmonton Oilers
Grade: A
Much could change between now and whenever the playoffs end. But for now, the argument could be made that this was the most important playoff game the Oilers have had this postseason.
The Oilers have had numerous strong performances, such as Game 3 against the Los Angeles Kings in the first round or their final two games against the Vegas Golden Knights in the conference semifinals. But what made the Oilers’ performance in Game 3 against Dallas arguably their most important was that they found a balance between being difficult in the defensive zone while not relying on a shutout to accomplish that objective.
The Stars finished with 37 shots, 13 high-danger chances in 5-on-5 play and scored only once. Connor McDavid has repeatedly stressed that the Oilers can play defense, and that has been made clear over their past five games. But Sunday proved they didn’t need Stuart Skinner or their defensive structure to blank an opponent to win. — Ryan S. Clark
Dallas Stars
Grade: C+
The final score doesn’t reflect the majority of this game, which Dallas coach Pete DeBoer can mine for positives among the many (many) negatives and some mitigating circumstances. Having Roope Hintz warm up but not be able to go because of the foot injury he suffered from a Darnell Nurse slash in Game 2? That’s deflating. Having the on-ice officials miss a delay of game call on Brett Kulak in the first period only to have Evan Bouchard open the scoring 10 seconds later? Also deflating.
So it’s to the Stars’ credit that they got to their game at 5-on-5 in Game 3 better than they have in any game of the series, at least before Edmonton ran up the score in the third. The results weren’t there and a loss is a loss — and a loss by this margin is difficult to stomach — but their second period and the performances from some of their slumbering depth players give the Stars at least a glimmer.
However, there’s no question Edmonton has this thing in well in-hand and the Stars have to find a way to solve Skinner, which is not something I thought I’d be writing at this stage of the postseason. — Greg Wyshynski
Three Stars of Game 3
Two goals and an assist for his seventh career multigoal playoff game. Hyman’s second goal was the Oilers’ fourth off the rush, the most in one game by any team this postseason. Hyman also was plus-5 Sunday.
Bouchard scored his sixth goal of the postseason and these two were on the ice for the first two Edmonton goals. At 5-on-5 this postseason, the Oilers are outscoring their opponents 7-1, and 5-0 in this series, when Bouchard and Kulak are on the ice.
0:48
Connor McDavid restores Oilers’ 2-goal lead
Connor McDavid finds the back of the net to restore the Oilers’ two-goal lead vs. the Stars.
3. Connor McDavid
C, Oilers
For all the talk about the lack of goals from the best hockey player in the world (which was odd because he had 20 points in 13 games and was a plus-7 entering Game 3 despite having only three goals), McDavid punched out a pair of tucks for his sixth career multigoal playoff game. Also, seeing McDavid with the puck barreling toward the net on a 3-on-1 is nightmare fuel for opponents. — Arda Ćcal
Players to watch in Game 4
Zach Hyman
LW, Oilers
To go from 16 goals last postseason to just three goals entering Game 3 of the conference finals is one way to assess Hyman. Another is to realize that he’s been the most physical player on a team that is among the tallest and heaviest in the NHL.
Hyman came into Game 3 leading the NHL with 99 hits. He remained physical Sunday by leading the way with six hits in a game that saw the Oilers continue their punishing style with 47. But to then see Hyman score two goals and finish with three points in addition to that physicality? It once again adds to the narrative that the Oilers might not only have more dimensions than last year’s team, they could be better than the team that finished Stanley Cup runner-up in 2024. — Clark
0:53
Zach Hyman’s 2nd goal puts Oilers up 4
Zach Hyman taps home his second goal of the game to put the Oilers up 5-1 vs. the Stars.
This is the first two-game losing streak for the Dallas goaltender in the playoffs. A lot of what happened in Game 3 wasn’t necessarily on him — a Connor McDavid beauty and a Zach Hyman breakaway were among the Edmonton tallies — but outside of the third period of Game 1, he’s not been a difference-maker in this series. Oettinger came into the game leading the playoffs with 5.58 goals saved above expected, according to Stathletes. The Stars have been able to depend on him as a slump-breaker. But this is his third game with a save percentage south of .900 in the series. As the Stars try to build on some positives from this game, they need Otter to provide the foundation for it — and in the process, silence those “U.S. backup!” chants from the Oilers fans. — Wyshynski
Big questions for Game 4
Are the Oilers about to do to the Stars what they did to the Golden Knights?
Simply put, the Oilers are where hope goes to die. Teams in a championship window that have yet to win a title are always being judged on their evolution. What the Oilers did to the Stars a year ago in the conference finals by winning the last three games showed that they could close out a series after trailing. This postseason Edmonton has shown a calculated and methodical coldness when it comes to putting away opponents.
The Golden Knights won Game 3 on a last-second goal to create the belief they may have found an opening. They didn’t score again for the rest of the playoffs after being in the top five of goals per game throughout the regular season. Breaking out for six goals to open the series seemed to be a sign the Stars may have found an opening. Since then? They’ve scored only once in the last six periods while facing questions about what’s happened to another team that went from being in the top five in goals per game in the regular season. — Clark
Can Dallas make Edmonton uncomfortable at all?
Our colleague Mark Messier made this point between periods of Game 3: The Stars have yet to do anything to get McDavid or Leon Draisaitl off their games. That extends to the rest of the Oilers. Outside of an anomalous run of three power-play goals in the third period of Game 1, there have been precious few instances of the Stars carrying play for long stretches or putting a scare into Edmonton at 5-on-5.
They had that for a bit in Game 3 with a dominant second period: plus-14 in shot attempts, plus-11 in scoring chances and a 10-1 advantage in high-danger shot attempts. But they were digging out of a 2-0 hole, only managed to get one goal of their own on the board and then McDavid stuck a dagger in them with 19 seconds left in the second.
The Stars need a lead. They need zone time. They need to get their rush game going: Skinner had a .897 save percentage on shots off the rush entering the game. Edmonton is playing with a champion’s confidence. Dallas has to find a way to inject a little doubt into its opponent or this series is going to end quickly. — Wyshynski
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