NHL teams head into this offseason with an understanding of where the salary cap is climbing over the next three seasons. It’s projected to rise to $95.5 million next season; $104 million in 2026-27; and then up to $113.5 million in 2027-28.

That could lead to more teams comfortably retaining their own players on expiring contracts. Or it could lead to those players receiving inflated offers in free agency, as a rising cap means rising chaos.

Here’s a look at the unrestricted free agent field, organized into different tiers. There are also some significant restricted free agents, too — like forwards Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs), JJ Peterka (Sabres) and Marco Rossi (Wild); and defensemen Evan Bouchard (Oilers), Noah Dobson (Islanders) and K’Andre Miller (Rangers). It’s anyone’s guess if last season’s offer sheet fun was an anomaly or the new normal.

The contract terms and average annual contract values are courtesy of PuckPedia. In the case of players whose salaries were retained in transactions, we’re listing the full average annual value of their contracts.

Which players are you hoping your team signs this offseason?

The free agent who will earn the most attention this offseason.

Age: 28 | 2024-25 cap hit: $10,903,000

Marner’s noncommittal answers at Toronto’s postseason media availability did little to discourage the notion that the winger — who has played his entire nine-year career with his childhood team that drafted him fourth overall in 2015 — is done in Toronto. It might be time for a change: Blaming Marner for the franchise’s playoff failures has become an annual rite, and he’ll easily break the bank in unrestricted free agency. The lure to leave has never been stronger.

Over the past five seasons, six players have more points than Marner (450 in 357 games): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Artemi Panarin and David Pastrnak. Marner has the fewest goals scored (138) of that group, but he’s significantly better defensively than most of that lot: His 14 shorthanded points in that span tie him with Aleksander Barkov, who is currently collecting Selke Trophies like they’re Pokémon.

Marner’s points-per-game rate over the past five regular seasons is 1.26. It dips to 0.93 in the playoffs during that span. Although he has 42 points in 48 games, Marner has been called “passive” and much worse in the playoffs. Former NHL player Jordan Schmaltz said Marner bails out of physical plays in the postseason like he has “a parachute” on his back.

All of this is to say that Marner is a complicated acquisition. The skill is unquestionable. The will, when the games matter most, has been questioned annually. Who wants that on their roster, and what is it worth?

It was reported at one point that the Leafs were considering a deal for eight years and $13.5 million per season, which would have made him the team’s highest-paid player annually over Auston Matthews ($13.25 million). Mikko Rantanen, who would have been the belle of the free agent ball had he not signed with the Dallas Stars, is making $12 million annually over eight years in a state with no income tax, for context.

The Carolina Hurricanes tried to acquire Marner for Rantanen but were rebuffed by the player, who had a full no-movement clause — and a son who would be born in May, making that decision completely understandable. They’ve got the cap space, and the need, to be interested in Marner again.

Teams on the rise such as the Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks and Utah Mammoth have been mentioned for Marner — if he still wants some of that Original Six flavor, playing in the Windy City while threading passes to Connor Bedard wouldn’t hurt.

Teams that love to make their offseason splashes such as the Florida Panthers and the Vegas Golden Knights have been speculated, as have the Los Angeles Kings and New York Islanders who could look to do something big. There has even been talk about a reunion with former Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas at the Pittsburgh Penguins — heck, if the rap on Marner is that he can’t figure out playoff hockey, you could do a lot worse than having Sidney Crosby as your tutor for a couple of seasons.

All of this is assuming he leaves Toronto. While it certainly looks like that’ll happen, let’s all remember the golden rule of NHL free agency: His stuff is there.

Tier 2: The impact players

These are established players who can play key, immediate roles for a team.

Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $4.425 million

Bennett is essentially the anti-Marner: The majority of his value is derived from his win-at-all-costs postseason play, with the “costs” typically being the physical wellbeing of opponents. Bennett is a dependable regular-season performer, as he had 25 goals and 26 assists this season for the Panthers to go along with 90 penalty minutes.

He’s going to be paid handsomely this summer. Perhaps by someone looking to have him be the last piece of their championship puzzle; or perhaps as a Stanley Cup-winning teacher who can instruct a middling team how to take the next step.

The assumption is that someone is going to price the Panthers out of Bennett, but let’s remember two things here: He loves playing for Florida, and GM Bill Zito knows what an essential ingredient Bennett has been in their postseason success — and that Bennett comprises a dynamic duo with star Matthew Tkachuk. The two sides have engaged in contract talks during the season.

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Age: 28 | 2024-25 cap hit: $6.65 million

There’s probably more interest outside of Vancouver in signing Boeser than within the Canucks organization, which has sent mixed signals about retaining him. He is one season removed from a 40-goal campaign and has eased concerns about his ability to remain in the lineup for a full season.

There’s been heavy speculation that the Burnsville, Minn., native could find his way to the Wild, but don’t count out potential suitors such as the Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils.

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Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $6 million

Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has done an impressive job dispelling the “no one wants to sign in Winnipeg” accusation, having gotten Mark Scheifele, Connor Hellebuyck and Neal Pionk to re-up in the past few years. Ehlers is his latest test.

“We’ll put our best foot forward with him to try to make our case to be a unique Jet-for-life-type player,” Cheveldayoff said.

A consistent point producer, Ehlers put his best foot forward toward a free agent payday with his best points per 60 minutes average (3.5) in five years. He is an offensive force — when he is in the lineup, as Ehlers has played over 70 games just once in the past four seasons, and he has missed time in the playoffs, as well.

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Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $7.5 million

The common thinking when the Panthers acquired Seth Jones from the Blackhawks was that the team would let No. 1 defenseman Aaron Ekblad walk as a free agent. But Zito has been adamant that the team could still retain the career Panther, even with Jones adding $7 million to their blue line and with Florida having other contractual business to address (like a potential new deal for Bennett).

With options such as Jakob Chychrun having re-signed ahead of free agency (eight years, $72 million with Washington), Ekblad is easily the best big-name D-man available — and one with a Stanley Cup ring, no less. He had 33 points with an average ice time of 23:31 in 56 games this season, which was truncated by a 20-game suspension for violating the terms of the NHL/NHLPA performance-enhancing substances program.

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Age: 37 | 2024-25 cap hit: $6.125 million

There’s been no better advertisement for the star winger’s value than what he has done with the Panthers after they acquired him from the Bruins. He has brought a veteran tenacity to their bottom six, while occasionally popping up to play with Aleksander Barkov. He has produced, too, with 13 points in 16 playoff games.

As coach Paul Maurice noted, the Panthers needed a player as vocal and media-friendly as Marchand to take the pressure off some of the more serene talents on the team.

If he doesn’t remain in Sunrise, there will be no shortage of teams interested in adding his winning pedigree — although salary and term will be the trick in signing him. Let’s face it: There wouldn’t be a next chapter more interesting than Marchand signing with the Maple Leafs, the team he has tormented for years — but he has recently admitted to cheering for the Leafs as a kid growing up in Halifax.

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Age: 33 | 2024-25 cap hit: $6 million

Nelson was one of several players the Avalanche added in their trade deadline shopping spree that couldn’t get them past Dallas in the opening round. Nelson had six goals and seven assists in 19 games for the Avs in the regular season but went scoreless in four of their seven playoff games against Dallas.

Was the fit good enough for both that he seeks to extend in Colorado, or are there other destinations for Nelson to bring his variety of skills and get some extra contract term in the process?

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Age: 34 | 2024-25 cap hit: $11 million

While Mitch Marner was noncommittal about his future in Toronto, Tavares did everything but belt out a version of “And I Am Telling You I’m Not Going” from “Dreamgirls” after their playoff elimination.

“I’ve expressed my desire to stay and wanting to make it work,” the veteran center said.

Do the Leafs bring him back at the right price point, or is Tavares another roster sacrifice made in the name of changing the mix after their playoff disappointment? One intriguing potential destination: Utah, which could use both a big-name free agent signing and a veteran presence in the middle.

Tier 3: The best bets

These players have shown they’re worth the investment.

Age: 34 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $3 million

Duchene has found a fit in Dallas, and Dallas found a fit in Duchene. He was one of the best value signings last offseason, inking a one-year extension worth $3 million before tallying 82 points in 82 games, his best offensive season since 2021-22 with Nashville. His playoff output through 16 games was less exceptional with just one goal and five assists.

Given the lack of unrestricted free agent veteran scorers with his credentials, there could be temptation to check how green the grass is elsewhere. But it’s possible Duchene is following that late-career path of other veterans: Taking a series of one-year deals to remain with a team he likes.

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Age: 29 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5.875 million

Gavrikov just completed a two-year deal that he signed with general manager Rob Blake in 2023. The wrinkle here: Blake is no longer the GM, with Ken Holland now at the helm in Los Angeles.

Gavrikov had a strong defensive season with the Kings and chipped in 30 points (five goals, 25 assists), which was the second-highest total of his six-season career. He was solid when paired with either Mikey Anderson or Jordan Spence.

All of this it say that the Kings should seek to retain Gavrikov. But if his new deal is too rich for what Holland wants to do with the rest of this roster, other teams will gladly add him to their blue line.

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Age: 37 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $6.5 million

Barring something unforeseen, Giroux should extend his relationship with the Senators before free agency hits. He had 50 points in 81 games this past season, his third with Ottawa, which made the playoffs for the first time in eight seasons.

There’s no reason to believe he won’t still be a Senator next season, but if he shakes loose, he has enough offensive pop left to help someone.

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Age: 33 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5,166,666

He was coveted at the trade deadline as a quintessential checking center with Stanley Cup championship experience. Gourde ended up going back to the Lightning from the Seattle Kraken, for whom he tallied 14 points in 21 games but was a nonfactor in five playoff games.

GM Julien BriseBois has said the team acquired Gourde with the idea of keeping him beyond this season. But as Steven Stamkos will attest, that usually means it’ll happen based on the Lightning’s economics, which might not sync with Gourde’s.

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Age: 33 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5 million

One of several great moves made by Stars GM Jim Nill this season, Granlund was rescued from last place San Jose, for which he posted 45 points in 52 games. Granlund had 21 points in 31 games for Dallas then nine in 16 playoff games while skating on the “Finnish Mafia” line with Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz.

Someone is probably going to overpay for Granlund, whose uptick in goal scoring has coincided with pending free agency. But he has produced points wherever he has played (Pittsburgh excluded).

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Age: 34 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5 million

Palmieri offers new Islanders general manager Mathieu Darche one of his first challenges. It’s clear that former GM Lou Lamoriello wanted to extend the winger, hanging on to him at the trade deadline. There’s virtue to that: Palmieri registered 30 goals and 24 goals over the past two seasons, and offense isn’t exactly in abundance on the Islanders’ roster.

That said, it’s high time for New York to turn over the roster Lamoriello built to diminishing returns, and Palmieri has been there since 2021.

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Age: 28 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $6.75 million

Provorov is a good skater who can play on the power play and the penalty kill while munching considerable minutes (23:21 per game). He’s a very solid puck mover who has elite puck-retrieval skills. If the Blue Jackets retain him, he can be the veteran anchor for their second pairing behind Zach Werenski.

They hung onto him at the trade deadline, and general manager Don Waddell said he wants to sign him this summer. If Provorov hits the open market, he won’t be the only GM with that aim.

Tier 4: The best values

Under-the-radar gems, analytics darlings and difference-makers with low-cost contracts.

Age: 27 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.25 million

This isn’t the first time Beauvillier has been in this tier, but his season with the Penguins and the Capitals underscored how valuable he can be on a budget contract, especially his six points in 10 playoff games with the Caps in their brief playoff run.

Strong underlying numbers, good output and still only 27 until next month.

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Age: 31 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1 million

If it wasn’t for that other Connor stealing all the attention in Edmonton, perhaps more people would have appreciated the regular season Connor Brown had for the Oilers — 13 goals and 17 assists in 82 games, skating to a plus-9 in 14:01 of average ice time per game — on a steal of a contract.

It took his playoff outburst — five goals and three assists through 14 games — to really grab some attention:

A hard-working, pace-setting player.

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Age: 36 | 2024-25 cap hit: $2.25 million

“Daddy” had an impressive walk year with 20 goals and 20 assists in 80 games. He saw similar averages in the first year of his two-year deal with Dallas. He is never getting back to the offensive numbers he posted in his prime, but at the right average annual value, Dadonov can be an offensive strength in the regular season.

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Age: 33 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.15 million

The former Anaheim Duck was a trade-deadline pickup for New Jersey who was pressed into more service than expected due to injuries to the Devils’ defensive corps in the playoffs. In their five-game series against Carolina, Dumoulin averaged 29:21 per game in ice time, skating over 36 minutes in two overtime games and playing well in the process.

The two-time Cup winner with Pittsburgh still can bring it in the postseason.

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Age: 26 | 2024-25 cap hit: $2.5 million

Yes, that’s Dante Fabbro of the Why on earth did the Nashville Predators put Dante Fabbro on waivers last season? fame. The Preds’ loss and the Jackets’ gain, as Fabbro had 26 points in 62 games, skating to a plus-23 with Columbus as Zach Werenski‘s partner.

The underlying numbers reaffirm he was great on both ends of the ice. Obviously, a lot of that is playing with a Norris Trophy finalist, but Fabbro earned his time with Werenski.

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Age: 31 | 2024-25 cap hit: $2.75 million

The former Boston Bruins defenseman had a quietly strong season for the Penguins with one goal but 39 assists — 24 of them at even strength. Defense was never his calling card, but offensively, he was solid in traditional stats and analytics.

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Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.075 million

Wait, a former Buffalo Sabres forward being acquired by the Golden Knights and finding his game again? Never seen that before …

Anyway, Olofsson had 15 goals and 14 assists on a bargain-basement “show me” contract. He has demonstrated in the past that, when healthy, he has a ton of offensive upside.

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Age: 34/2024-25 cap hit $5 million

There’s a reason the Golden Knights ran it back with Smith at the trade deadline. He is a perfectively serviceable depth forward who is going to produce decently on offense and can contribute on both special teams.

He is fine if cast in the right role — that is, not a top-line winger — as the Rangers discovered.

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Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.6 million

Suter is teetering on the brink of a potential overpay, after setting career highs in goals (25) and points (46) in a contract year with the Canucks. But his goal production has been steady in limited roles throughout his career, and he does enough away from the puck — according to the analytics — that even a dip in last season’s numbers won’t make a multiplier on his cap hit regrettable.

Tier 5: The boom-or-busts

Players who have the ability to justify the investment or whose contracts could eventually become an eyesore on PuckPedia.

Age: 35 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $9.5 million

Benn signed his eight-year contract in July 2016, but it somehow feels much longer ago than that. Perhaps because of his 16-year tenure with Dallas; when Benn was a rookie, Mike Modano was still on the Stars. But also because this contract was a topic of debate from the moment it was signed.

While Benn’s most productive offensive days are behind him, he has still managed 49 points in 80 games this season in a limited role; he has been under 16 minutes in average ice time for the past three seasons.

GM Nill said Benn will be a Dallas Star for life, but the two decided to have this season play out before talking extension. Benn’s value is in his leadership, physicality and intangibles. But Dallas or whichever team signs him needs to tread lightly in AAV and term here.

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Age: 40 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $8 million

The beard, the ranch, the mysterious bag filled with mysterious items. There are few NHL players who have inspired the kind of lore that Brent Burns has. He also used to inspire a lot of offense, but that production has fallen off steeply over the past two seasons — from 61 points to 43 points to 29 points in 82 games this season, the lowest average of points per 60 minutes of his career.

Is this run the end of the line for Burns? He hasn’t said. But there’s always going to be a market for a puck-moving defenseman in the NHL who can log 20 minutes per game.

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Age: 29 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $2 million

Donato had an all-timer walk-year bump this past season, setting new career highs in goals (31) and assists (31) in 80 games with the Blackhawks. He was talking to Chicago about a new deal around the trade deadline, and the Hawks opted not to move him. That’s an indication they see him as part of their group moving forward. Having chemistry with Connor Bedard probably doesn’t hurt.

The questions now: How does one quantify that in a contract? And can Donato repeat the feat in a noncontract year?

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Age: 30 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $2.5 million

Drouin recaptured his offensive game with Colorado, which acquired him with the encouragement of his junior hockey teammate Nathan MacKinnon. It was a heartwarming story. Less so was the fact that, once again, the injury bug munched on him this past season.

He had 37 points in 43 games, showing that when he’s in the lineup he can be effective. Operative phrase: when he’s in the lineup.

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Age: 36 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $4 million

We almost put “Showtime” in the “best bets” category given how he outperformed his incentive-laden, one-year contract with Detroit last season by tallying 21 goals and 38 points in 72 games. He played well with longtime linemate Alex DeBrincat and responded well when Detroit hired Todd McLellan to take over as coach.

The issue with Kane is on the other side of the puck, where he was analytically the weakest defensive forward on the Red Wings.

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Age: 29 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5.5 million

Kuzmenko fit really nicely with the Kings after they acquired him from the Flyers. He seemed to be the player Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe had been waiting for to join their line. Assuming new GM Ken Holland sees it the same way, it’s going to be intriguing to find out how that is valued in regard to AAV and term.

If Holland doesn’t, then Kuzmenko will be onto a fifth team in three seasons, tantalized by his offensive pop and power-play prowess.

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Age: 27 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $4.5 million

The Rangers traded the 27-year-old to the Avalanche at the trade deadline. He’s a solid defensive defenseman who could complement a puck-moving partner, like he did in New York with Adam Fox.

But at this point in Lindgren’s NHL career, it’s practically predestined that he is going to either play through injuries or miss some time because of them.

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Age: 33 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $7.75 million

Orlov surprised many the last time he was a free agent by signing a short-term, high-AAV contract with the Hurricanes. He had a slight uptick in offensive production this season but remained just above replacement level as a defender. Orlov has been especially rough in his own end in the playoffs.

While the Canes could let him walk, there’s likely value in keeping Orlov around as a partner and mentor to rookie Alexander Nikishin, who looks like something special.

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Age: 33 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $3 million

What was expected to be one of the best value signings in the NHL last offseason never really worked out that way for Skinner and Edmonton. He had 16 goals and 13 assists in 72 games, skating just 12:60 on average. He did appear in one playoff game against the Kings, his first postseason action of his 15-year career.

Skinner is two seasons removed from a 35-goal campaign with Buffalo.

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Age: 37 | 2022-23 cap hit: $10.5 million

We know what kind of player Toews was for the Blackhawks: a Selke Trophy-winning captain who won three Stanley Cups and a Conn Smythe, one who was still putting up numbers (31 points in 53 games) deep into the Chicago rebuild.

But we don’t know what kind of player he is now, having last appeared in a game back in April 2023 before stepping away from the NHL for health considerations and personal growth.

Toews has expressed an interest in coming back to play again. That has led to speculation about a comeback with everyone from his hometown Winnipeg Jets to the championship-starved Maple Leafs to the Oilers, for whom his old GM Stan Bowman now works.

Tier 6: The goalies

The few, the proud, the available goaltenders

Age: 34 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.85 million

Allen outplayed Jacob Markstrom in the regular season, with a higher save percentage (.908), more goals saved above expected (8.75) and just as many shutouts (four). The Devils like their goaltending, and GM Tom Fitzgerald has discussed negotiating to bring Allen back. But given the other options on the free agent goaltending market, someone might go higher than the Devils are willing to go.

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Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.4 million

The former starter for the Colorado Avalanche, Georgiev was sent to the Sharks in the Mackenzie Blackwood trade. Things weren’t all the better for him there, as Georgiev had minus-13.7 goals saved above expected in 31 games for San Jose.

GM Mike Grier already told the goaltender he won’t be back with the Sharks next season.

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Age: 32 | 2024-25 cap hit: $900,000

One of five goalies the Wings used this season, Lyon played 30 games for Detroit with an .896 save percentage and a 14-9-1 record. He was just under average in goals saved above expected at minus-1.63.

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Age: 28 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.8 million

Signed in a cost-effective deal as a backup to Adin Hill, Samsonov had a second straight season with a sub-.900 save percentage, along with a minus-7.85 goals saved above expected.

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Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.4 million

A former starter with the Devils, Vanecek split time between the Sharks and Panthers this season, and he wasn’t particularly great for either of them.

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Age: 27 | 2024-25 cap hit: $2.2 million

Dustin Wolf‘s incredible rookie season was supported by 30 games of perfectly average goaltending from Vladar, who remains a reliable tandem goalie if not much more.

Tier 7: The spackle

The other free agents available who don’t neatly fall into these tiers.

Mason Appleton, C, Winnipeg Jets
Cam Atkinson, RW, Tampa Bay Lightning
Joel Armia, LW/RW, Montreal Canadiens
Nathan Bastian, RW, New Jersey Devils
Nick Bjugstad, C, Utah Mammoth
Justin Brazeau, RW, Minnesota Wild
Cody Ceci, D, Dallas Stars
Tony DeAngelo, D, New York Islanders
Calvin de Haan, D, New York Rangers
Christian Dvorak, C, Montreal Canadiens
Lars Eller, C, Washington Capitals
Robby Fabbri, F, Anaheim Ducks
Radek Faksa, C, St. Louis Blues
Anton Forsberg, G, Ottawa Senators
Trent Frederic, C, Edmonton Oilers
Adam Gaudette, RW, Ottawa Senators
Tanner Jeannot, F, Los Angeles Kings
Kasperi Kapanen, RW, Edmonton Oilers
John Klingberg, D, Edmonton Oilers
Luke Kunin, F, Columbus Blue Jackets
Sean Kuraly, C, Columbus Blue Jackets
Oliver Kylington, D, Anaheim Ducks
Andrew Mangiapane, F, Washington Capitals
Anthony Mantha, RW, Calgary Flames
Brock McGinn, LW, Anaheim Ducks
Gustav Nyquist, RW, Minnesota Wild
Max Pacioretty, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs
Nick Perbix, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
Corey Perry, RW, Edmonton Oilers
Jeff Petry, D, Detroit Red Wings
Taylor Raddysh, D, Washington Capitals
Jack Roslovic, F, Carolina Hurricanes
Jan Rutta, D, San Jose Sharks
Brandon Saad, LW, Vegas Golden Knights
Nate Schmidt, D, Florida Panthers
Brendan Smith, D, Dallas Stars
Nico Sturm, C, Florida Panthers
Brandon Tanev, LW, Winnipeg Jets
James van Riemsdyk, LW, Columbus Blue Jackets

Four-star USC cornerback pledge R.J. Sermons, ESPN’s No. 28 overall prospect in the 2026 cycle, has reclassified into the 2025 cycle and will join the Trojans program this summer, he announced Friday.

Sermons, a 6-foot, 185-pound defensive back from Rancho Cucamonga, California, was previously ranked as ESPN’s No. 2 cornerback prospect in the 2026 class, trailing only five-star 2026 USC commit Elbert Hill. Per ESPN sources, Sermons intends to enroll at USC in July, stepping into a rebuilt Trojans secondary that lost five starters from a year ago.

Sermons, whose father, Rodney Sermons, rushed for 888 yards and eight touchdowns at USC from 1994 to 1997, committed to the Trojans on Dec. 13, over finalists Alabama, Georgia, Notre Dame and Oregon.

His early arrival delivers a late-spring boost to the Trojans’ 2025 signing class, which closed at No. 14 in ESPN’s class rankings for the cycle following national signing day in February. Sermons joins ESPN 300 defensive back Kendarius Reddick (No. 179 overall) and Trestin Castro (No. 269) among the top defensive prospects in USC’s freshman class, as well as five-star defensive lineman Jahkeem Stewart, who reclassified from the 2026 cycle last fall.

Sermons recorded 46 tackles with an interception and five pass breakups in his sophomore season at Rancho Cucamonga High School in 2023 before an injury limited him to six games as a junior last fall. One of California’s top high school sprinters, Sermons placed first in the Division I 100- and 200-meter events at the California Interscholastic Federation Southern Section championships last month.

Even with Sermons’ reclassification, the Trojans’ 2026 class continues to stand among the deepest in the nation, with 26 overall pledges this cycle as of May 23, including 12 from within the ESPN 300. Alongside Hill, ESPN’s No. 15 overall prospect, USC also holds a commitment from four-star, in-state cornerback Brandon Lockhart (No. 79 overall).

The 12-team College Football Playoff will move to a straight seeding model this fall, rewarding the selection committee’s top four teams with the top four seeds and a first-round bye, the CFP announced Thursday.

The 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua, who constitute the CFP’s management committee, reached the unanimous agreement necessary to make the change during a call Thursday afternoon.

“We all have a responsibility to serve our constituents while also being mindful as to what’s best for college football,” ACC commissioner Jim Phillips told ESPN. “Today’s decision was done in the best interest of the sport. It may not always benefit the ACC, but it was the right decision and that’s a responsibility I take very seriously.”

Last season, the four highest-ranked conference champions earned the top four seeds regardless of where they were ranked. Now, independent Notre Dame is eligible to earn a first-round bye if the Irish are ranked in the top four. All four teams that earned a first-round bye in the inaugural 12-team CFP lost their first game.

The five highest-ranked conference champions will still be guaranteed spots in the 12-team field.

“After evaluating the first year of the 12-team Playoff, the CFP management committee felt it was in the best interest of the game to make this adjustment,” Rich Clark, executive director of the CFP, said in a statement. “This change will continue to allow guaranteed access to the Playoff by rewarding teams for winning their conference championship, but it will also allow us to construct a postseason bracket that recognizes the best performance on the field during the entire regular season.”

The group agreed to maintain the $8 million financial commitment to the four highest-ranked conference champions: $4 million for reaching the playoff and $4 million for reaching the quarterfinals.

“That was the commissioners’ way of, at least for this year, holding to the commitment that they have made financially to those teams, those conference champions in particular, that would have been paid those amounts under the former system that we used last year,” Clark told ESPN.

Last year, Mountain West Conference champion Boise State and Big 12 champion Arizona State earned top-four seeds and first-round byes as two of the four highest-ranked conference champions. The Broncos were ranked No. 9 and seeded No. 3, and No. 12-ranked Arizona State earned the fourth seed and final bye. Had a straight seeding model been in place last year, No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Texas and No. 4 Penn State would have been the top four seeds.

The CFP’s management committee has been contemplating changing the seeding for this fall for months. While there was overwhelming support in the room to move to a straight seeding format, some commissioners were hoping to tie the discussion into the bigger consideration of format for 2026 and beyond. No decisions were made on the CFP’s future format.

“There’s still lots of discussion,” Clark added. “The commissioners are really putting everything on the table so that everybody knows where each other is coming from, but they’re still in discussions.”