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The UK economy will grow more than previously thought, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has upgraded its latest forecast.

But it warned trade tensions linked to US tariff plans will reduce UK economic growth next year.

The Washington-based UN financial agency said the UK economy will expand 1.2% this year and “gain momentum next year”.

The upgrade in forecasts, however, is slight, up from an expected 1.1% announced in April as the world reeled from the global trade war sparked by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

That April figure was a 0.5% downgrade from the projected 1.6% growth for 2025 the IMF foresaw in January and the 1.5% forecast issued in October.

It means the IMF expects the UK economy to grow less this year than it forecast in October and January.

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Tariffs warnings

This anticipated lower growth is largely due to tariffs – taxes on goods imported to the United States – and the uncertainty caused by shifting trade policy in the US, the world’s largest economy.

While many tariffs have been paused until 8 July, it’s unclear if deals will be in place by then and if pauses may be extended.

The effect of this has been quantified as a 0.3 percentage points lower growth by 2026 in the UK, the IMF said.

The organisation held its prediction that the UK economy will grow by 1.4% in 2026.

“The forecast assumes that global trade tensions lower the level of UK GDP by 0.3% by 2026, due to persistent uncertainty, slower activity in UK trading partners, and the direct impact of remaining US tariffs on the UK,” it said.

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Trump’s tariffs: What you need to know

It comes despite the UK having agreed a deal with the Trump administration to circumvent the 25% tariffs on cars and metals.

The IMF also cautioned that “weak productivity continues to weigh on medium-term growth prospects”.

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Interest rates “should” continue to come down, making borrowing cheaper, though the IMF acknowledged the rate-setters at the Bank of England now have a “more complex” job due to the recent rise in inflation and “fragile” growth.

The author of the report on the UK Luc Eyraud said the IMF expected the Bank to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points every three months until they reach a level of around 3%, down from the current 4.25%.

Praise was given to the UK government as the IMF said “fiscal plans strike a good balance between supporting growth and safeguarding fiscal sustainability”.

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The news is being taken as a win by Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

“The UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 for the first three months of this year and today the IMF has upgraded our growth forecast,” she said.

“We’re getting results for working people through our plan for change – with three new trade deals protecting jobs, boosting investment and cutting prices, a pay rise for three million workers through the national living wage, and wages beating inflation by £1,000 over the past year.”

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FBOT registry won’t bring offshore crypto exchanges to the US — Attorney

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<div>FBOT registry won't bring offshore crypto exchanges to the US — Attorney</div>

<div>FBOT registry won't bring offshore crypto exchanges to the US — Attorney</div>

The Foreign Board of Trade (FBOT) framework is designed for the legacy financial system and is a poor fit for cryptocurrency exchanges.

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‘Scam of all scams’: Crypto dev claims Trump-linked WLFI ‘stole’ his money

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‘Scam of all scams’: Crypto dev claims Trump-linked WLFI ‘stole’ his money

‘Scam of all scams’: Crypto dev claims Trump-linked WLFI ‘stole’ his money

A crypto developer says Trump-linked crypto project WLFI froze his tokens and refused to unlock them, calling it “the new age mafia.”

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Farage confirms he wants to deport women asylum seekers back to Taliban in Afghanistan

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Farage confirms he wants to deport women asylum seekers back to Taliban in Afghanistan

Nigel Farage has confirmed he wants to deport women asylum seekers back to the Taliban in Afghanistan if he becomes prime minister.

The Reform UK leader’s position on the topic has not been clear, with him previously saying he would send women back to the fundamentalist regime that took over after western militaries withdrew, before now saying he would.

Mr Farage was speaking to Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby at the Reform UK party conference in Birmingham.

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When asked if he would “detain” women and children and “send them back”, the Clacton MP said “yes”.

Challenged on when he said in August that he was not “discussing” women and children, Mr Farage claimed this was a reference to his desire to seeing men detained on arrival in the UK.

At the time he said he was “very, very clear” on the “deportation of illegal immigrants”, adding: “We are not even discussing women and children at this stage – there are so many illegal males in Britain, and the news reports that said that after my conference yesterday were wrong”

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Speaking today, Mr Farage claimed that the UK has a “duty of care” if a four-year-old arrives in a dinghy, for example – but not so for women and men.

“For clarity, those that cross the English Channel will be detained and deported, men and women,” Mr Farage went on.

“Children, we’ll have to think about.”

The Reform leader also rowed back on his pledge to stop all boats within two weeks if he is elected prime minister.

Speaking to the conference yesterday, Mr Farage said: “You cannot come here illegally and stay – we will stop the boats within two weeks of winning government.”

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Watch Farage face questions on his tax affairs

But speaking to Beth Rigby today, he changed tack – saying “the passing of legislation” would be required.

He said the boats would then be stopped within two weeks, or sooner.

In the interview with Rigby, Mr Farage tried to claim he did not say he would end the boats within two weeks of “winning government”.

But the video of his speech, as well as the transcript released by Reform UK, clearly show him saying: “We will stop the boats within two weeks of winning government.”

When asked why he wouldn’t be able to stop the boats within two weeks of winning government, Mr Farage said it was impossible and “no one” can prevent them crossing the Channel.

The Reform UK leader said the law he wants to introduce will be called the Illegal Migration Act once it is passed by parliament.

He confirmed his agenda includes leaving the European Convention on Human Rights, shutting down asylum hotels and housing people at RAF bases instead, as well as deporting Channel migrants.

Mr Farage also claimed that deportation flights would also begin within two weeks of the law changing, and this combination of factors would stop people from wanting to travel from France.

This strategy all depends on Reform UK winning the next general election – which Labour does not have to call until 2029.

However, Mr Farage says he believes the government will collapse in 2027 due to economic pressure and other factors.

Reform are currently well clear of Labour and the Conservatives in the polling, and are targeting next year’s Welsh, Scottish and English local election to try and win more power in councils and national assemblies.

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