2025 MLB mock draft 1.0: Who will go No. 1 to the Nationals?
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Kiley McDaniel
The silly season for the MLB draft is in full swing. College conference tournaments and many state high school tournaments have concluded, so the season is over for many key players and attention has shifted to private workouts or playoff games. Rumors are starting to swirl about who will go where, so it’s time for my initial full first-round projection.
As mentioned in my updated rankings and mini-mock two weeks ago, the top of this class is down a little from recent years, but that means the stars will be found later in the draft and the top of the draft will be even more unpredictable.
This week’s NCAA tournament regionals will be key for some of the players listed below, but most of those still playing have done enough that a few games won’t matter much. The MLB Draft Combine (June 21-25) will be huge for some third- to fifth-round type prospects, while the real fireworks for first-round implications will come either in private workouts or in the meetings teams are having to sort through all of the information they’ve collected in the past year on this class.
Here is who your favorite team is targeting at the top of this year’s draft.
Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (Oklahoma)
Top 150 rank: 3
This one is still wide-open and my choice here is more a reflection of “I don’t quite have enough info to change it from Holliday” than “I’m confident it’s going to be Holliday.” Eli Willits and Seth Hernandez are the leading prep options while the college options (lefties Liam Doyle, Kade Anderson and Jamie Arnold) seem less likely.
Bonus demands will certainly be a factor, which are influenced by potential landing spots. Holliday’s hot spots are picks No.1, No. 4 and No. 5. Willits’ are No. 1, possibly No. 2, then No. 5 through No. 8. Hernandez’s are No. 1, possibly No. 2, No. 3 and then a gap until maybe No. 9. If you’re confused, you’re now caught up to where the industry is.
Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Top 150 rank: 6
I’m not ruling out a high school player going here as a possibility (as referenced above), but I’m also not taking it that seriously. The Angels’ history is to take quick-moving college players early and promote them quickly through their system, then overpay some high school players later.
Doyle had one of the most incredible regular seasons in years, but did get hit around in the SEC tournament. You could justify Kade Anderson or Jamie Arnold as the top college prospect here, but Doyle fits their interests better. Aiva Arquette is mentioned and I think he’s in their mix, but I’d assume a pitcher is where they land.
Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Top 150 rank: 7
It’s starting to sound like this pick will be a pitcher. Hernandez is a real option but comes from a risky player demographic as a high schooler. Anderson is finishing strong and Arnold is posting solid K/BB numbers but getting hit around, so I’ll lean to Anderson in a tight finish.
Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Top 150 rank: 8
If Holliday doesn’t get here, I’m told the options considered at this pick will be among one of the remaining college left-handers (Arnold in this case), Kyson Witherspoon or Arquette. Witherspoon probably goes a bit after this, so he seems like the least likely unless there’s an underslot deal.
Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (Oklahoma)
Top 150 rank: 2
In this scenario, I think this pick will come down to Willits and Arnold, with JoJo Parker and Billy Carlson among the viable choices on the periphery.
In the past, St. Louis has leaned heavily into reliable college starters, but Willits is quite similar to St. Louis 2024 first-rounder JJ Wetherholt.
Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Top 150 rank: 1
The Pirates have been tied to Arquette (not available here in this scenario), any of the three college lefties (just Arnold in this scenario), and whichever of the prep shortstops get here (Carlson and Parker in this scenario). I think Arnold’s solid chance to be the best pitcher in this class wins out.
3:20
Which MLB draft prospects could have star potential?
Kiley McDaniels provides some key prospects to look out for in the MLB draft, including Florida State’s Jamie Arnold and Seth Hernandez from Corona High School.
Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (California)
Top 150 rank: 5
Carlson is heavily in the mix for a number of picks starting around No. 5 and should go pretty soon after that. Like Arnold, he could be the one from the best of his player demographic to slip but could also easily be the best of the group. We’re getting into the back of the top tier of talent, so teams picking here will be reactive and take who gets to them from the top group.
Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
Top 150 rank: 10
I don’t think the Blue Jays would take Seth Hernandez, but I do think they’re on most of the other players in the consensus top group, so Witherspoon is the one that makes sense in this scenario; any of the previous four picks in this mock would be Toronto’s pick if they were the one to fall, too.
Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (California)
Top 150 rank: 4
This is a best-case scenario for Cincinnati as the Reds get their guy here after Hernandez loses some coin flips up top. I think this would be quite unlucky for Hernandez and there might be a team lying in the weeds between No. 3 and No. 9 that would take him that hasn’t tipped their hand yet.
JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (Mississippi)
Top 150 rank: 9
Parker has multiple potential landing spots in the top 10. He might be the best hitter in the draft, it’s just that his other tools aren’t as good as his competition.
For some teams, the top tier is 10 players (I basically agree, though I might include one or two more) so the White Sox pick could be quite simple, but odds are their board doesn’t just have all 10 names in a similar order.
Brendan Summerhill, CF, Arizona
Top 150 rank: 27
The A’s are in a tough spot, as you can surmise from the theme developing that the top tier of talent is now running out. That also means prices will come into play starting around here as a number of players grade out similarly; that means mocks get much harder because agents and teams don’t know anyone’s price yet. The A’s have been tied to Summerhill all spring and this is about where he should land anyway; he’ll be ranked higher when I update my list.
Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (Alabama)
Top 150 rank: 11
The Rangers will take any player demographic but tend to lean toward tools/upside at premium picks. Hall is one of the youngest players in the draft and is a plus-plus runner with the feel to pull/lift the ball in games.
Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
Top 150 rank: 14
I’ve heard both Wake Forest SS Marek Houston and Aloy at this spot. Both are college shortstops but otherwise pretty different players. Aloy has contact issues, isn’t a great runner but is a good defender, and Houston makes a lot of contact with limited power and is a great defender. Aloy has a chance to be a starting big league shortstop with plus power and that upside is rare, especially from the college ranks.
Josh Hammond, 3B, Wesleyan Christian HS (North Carolina)
Top 150 rank: 18
Hammond had a great summer and was getting Austin Riley comps for his two-way prowess (many teams preferred him as a pitcher over the summer), then showed up notably stronger this spring, looking like a dead ringer for Josh Donaldson, headlined by plus-plus raw power, though with a more power-focused offensive approach.
Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (California)
Top 150 rank: 13
Fien is somewhat polarizing as he has medium tools but had a huge summer performance while his lesser spring performance has soured some teams. He was knocking on the door of the top 10 before the spring and shouldn’t get out of the first 20 or so picks despite scouts being a bit confused by their spring looks.
Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M
Top 150 rank: 9
Speaking of a confusing spring, Laviolette also has scouts unsure what to make of him. His swing is a bit mechanical and stiff, but he has massive tools and has performed pretty well all things considered — though he has been streaky. There’s some thinking that he should loosen up his swing, maybe like Cody Bellinger, because he has 30-homer power and is viable in center field at 6-foot-6.
He’s a rare talent with solid college performance, but the worry about his swing and the contact issues he might have at higher levels is creating uncertainty about his draft position. He could sneak into the top 10 but more likely goes in the later teens. The Twins have taken players like this and had some success, with Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner.
Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
Top 150 rank: 21
Wood is a hot name because of his huge stuff, but he has started only 10 games in college. Some scouts think that if he can make a number of starts for Arkansas this postseason, he could have a rise like Cade Horton, who went No. 7 in 2022 out of Oklahoma and is now in the big leagues for the Cubs. This projection is a little speculative, but I don’t think Wood would get out of the 20s if the draft were held today. He is a more refined version of another Arkansas pitcher the Cubs took in the second round in 2023, Jaxon Wiggins.
Slater de Brun, CF, Summit HS (Oregon)
Top 150 rank: 16
You’re going to see de Brun in this spot in a lot of mock drafts because he’s pretty similar to Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas and Slade Caldwell, all prep position players who are short and quick center fielders — and all taken by the D-backs. He belongs in this juncture of the draft anyway and Arizona still seems quite interested in this type of player.
Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (Washington)
Top 150 rank: 19
This is the area where you’ll see de Brun’s Northwest prep running mate Neyens’ name the most in projections as well. He belongs here, but the next few picks are teams that tend to lean into Neyens’ skillset: massive raw power, solid athleticism, infield fit. Baltimore has taken a number of players like this over the years and Neyens has an intriguing upside (think Joey Gallo, both the good and bad versions) for this juncture of the draft.
Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (Georgia)
Top 150 rank: 20
Pierce has a lot of interest from the late teens into the 20s and could go anywhere in that range, (or maybe get overpaid later) because there are a ton of prep position players at this juncture of the draft and one or two of them have to slide as college talents invariably are moved up while prep players get big bonuses to wait a bit longer. Pierce is a standout athlete and defender with great makeup and contact rates but limited present power.
Tate Southisene, SS, Basic HS (Nevada)
Top 150 rank: 22
Tate’s brother Ty got $1 million from the Cubs in the fourth round last year and the Cubs are tied to Tate this spring, though Houston is as well. Southisene is a bit unusual as a prep shortstop with standout power and patience in a smaller frame, though not quite as fast or young as Steele Hall, another player with that general skillset who went nine picks earlier in this projection.
Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
Top 150 rank: 15
There was a lot of anticipation when Houston showed scouts a new and improved swing last fall that caused some to mention Dansby Swanson as a comp. But it was followed by a bit of a letdown when his power numbers didn’t increase very much this spring. He’s still a plus runner and defender with solid contact rates, but more like 10-15 homer potential. He has a good bit of interest in the teens, so this is more of a floor than his hot spot.
Ike Irish, C/OF, Auburn
Top 150 rank: 26
Irish has a lot of momentum after finishing second in the SEC in OPS in conference games after a slow start. There are landing spots for him all over the first round, including the top half of the round, so this is near the latter end of his range. As usual, the Royals are being tied to a number of prep pitchers so I’d assume they would line up a few in their next picks after taking Irish here in this scenario.
Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (Texas)
Top 150 rank: 17
Cunningham is another player with lots of interest in the teens who loses out a bit in this scenario, though Detroit has an extra pick at No. 34 and the pool space to get a better player to this pick.
Cunningham has arguably the best hit tool in the draft and will play the infield, but doesn’t have much power right now, might be more of a second baseman and being old for the class makes him a no-go for some model-oriented teams. He’s also among the most likely big leaguers in this deep prep class, so this is a great value.
Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (Oregon)
Top 150 rank: 33
It’s generally good business to predict a prep left-hander to the Padres with Kash Mayfield and Boston Bateman taken as their first two picks last year, and Robby Snelling and Ryan Weathers as first-rounders in past years.
Schoolcraft also fits around this spot in the draft, with some chance to go inside of the top 20 but more likely being a slot-or-above option in the 20s and early 30s. He’s 6-foot-8 with mid-90s velo and a plus changeup, though his breaking ball quality is inconsistent.
Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (Indiana)
Top 150 rank: 40
The Phillies have had some success with being more open to prep right-handers in the first round than the average team (Andrew Painter, Mick Abel), though they haven’t done it of late. This is the juncture in the draft where the next tier of prep arms behind Seth Hernandez (Schoolcraft, Cam Appenzeller, Aaron Watson, Landon Harmon) will go flying off the board and the Phillies seem to be most interested in Fisher of this group.
Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Top 150 rank: 28
Bremner looked like a potential top-10 pick entering the spring, then didn’t have the season many were hoping for, but he still has a starter look with mid-90s velocity, and a knockout changeup. The Guardians are good at the last stage of pitcher development and Bremner has fallen too far at this point.
Prospect promotion incentive picks
28. Kansas City Royals: Aaron Watson, RHP, Trinity Christian HS (Florida)
Compensation picks
29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Ethan Conrad, RF, Wake Forest
30. Baltimore Orioles: Sean Gamble, 2B, IMG Academy (Florida)
31. Baltimore Orioles: Mason Neville, CF, Oregon
32. Milwaukee Brewers: Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee
Competitive balance picks
33. Boston Red Sox: Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (Georgia)
34. Detroit Tigers: Anthony Eyanson, RHP, LSU<
35. Seattle Mariners: Nick Becker, SS, Don Bosco HS (New Jersey)
36. Minnesota Twins: Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
37. Tampa Bay Rays: Jaden Fauske, OF, Nazareth Academy HS (Illinois)
These three teams had their first-round picks moved down 10 slots after exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the competitive balance tax. We’ll include full writeups for them so all 30 teams have a projected pick.
Marcus Phillips, RHP, Tennessee
Top 150 rank: 37
Phillips is electrifying, sitting in the upper-90s with plus stuff from a low arm slot but some teams worry his arm action will limit him to relief. The Mets haven’t been scared to take this sort of risk in the past and Phillips might also land in the 20s, so this would be a nice value.
Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee
Top 150 rank: 53
Fischer is sneaking up the board along the same lines as Ike Irish and Ethan Conrad, as pure hitters who are probably big leaguers of consequence. Fischer has the least defensive value of the group as a likely first baseman who has some shot to play third base, but he also might go higher than this as the demand for SEC-proven hitters is always high.
Cam Cannarella, CF, Clemson
Top 150 rank: 34
Cannarella hasn’t looked quite the same as he did last spring and scouts seem to think he won’t go in the top 20-30 picks. I think this drop is too far for his talent and would be another draft coup for the Dodgers.
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Mark Schlabach
Holding a one-point lead in the final three minutes of Saturday’s game against South Florida, Florida shot itself in the foot with two costly penalties on defense.
Bulls kicker Nico Gramatica made the No. 13 Gators pay with his right leg.
18 1/2-point underdog South Florida pulled off its second upset in as many weeks when Gramatica, the son of former NFL kicker Martin Gramatica, booted a 20-yard field goal as time expired for an 18-16 victory in the Swamp.
South Florida routed No. 25 Boise State 34-7 at home in its Aug. 28 opener, its first victory over a ranked opponent since 2016. The Bulls had dropped 18 straight against ranked teams.
Saturday’s victory over the Gators was even more impressive. It was USF’s first road win against a ranked opponent since its 23-20 victory at No. 16 Notre Dame on Sept. 3, 2011.
According to ESPN Research, the Bulls are only the fourth team in the AP poll era (since 1936) to win their first two games against ranked opponents while being unranked, joining 1976 North Carolina, 2008 East Carolina and 2012 Oregon State.
The Bulls play at No. 5 Miami next week. They’ll try to become only the fifth team to start a season 3-0 with three wins over ranked opponents; 1987 Miami, 1985 Michigan, 1960 Iowa and 1954 Oklahoma were the others.
“We’ve got to be able to go handle success,” USF coach Alex Golesh said. “We’ve just got to continue to push forward. This ain’t the same old South Florida, my brother.”
It was Florida’s first defeat at home against a school from Florida, other than Florida State or Miami, since a 16-14 loss to Stetson in 1938.
“It’s not good enough,” Florida coach Billy Napier said. “We’ve got work to do. You guys know it. I know it. Anybody that watched it knows it. We got to take ownership of it, and we got to go back to work. That’s it.”
The loss will surely put more pressure on Napier, whose teams are 20-20 in his four seasons. Florida started 1-1 for the fourth straight season and its schedule is going to get even more treacherous with four straight games against ranked foes: at No. 3 LSU, at No. 5 Miami, home against No. 7 Texas and at No. 19 Texas A&M.
The Gators would owe Napier a $20.4 million buyout if he’s fired, including 50% in the first 30 days of his termination.
“We created it. We deserve it,” Napier said of the criticism. “If you play football like that, you’re going to be criticized. It comes with the territory, right? Only thing you can do is go get it fixed, and that’s what we’ll start working on tomorrow.”
South Florida gave Gramatica a chance to put them ahead with less than three minutes to go, but his 58-yard field goal attempt was short with 2:52 left.
Florida got the ball back at its 40-yard line and went three and out, taking only 27 seconds off the clock. Gators quarterback DJ Lagway misfired on two passes, including one to Vernell Brown III on third-and-8. Tommy Doman’s 47-yard punt pinned the Bulls at their 11-yard line with 2:25 remaining.
That’s when things fell apart for Florida. On second down, Gators cornerback Dijon Johnson was penalized for pass interference, giving USF a first down.
On the next play, Florida stuffed Alvon Isaac for no gain. But Gators defensive lineman Brendan Bett was penalized for unsportsmanlike conduct and ejected from the game for spitting in the face mask of USF offensive lineman Cole Skinner after the play. The 15-yard penalty gave the Bulls a first down at their 39-yard line.
On the next play, Byrum Brown threw a short pass to Alvon Isaac, who broke three tackles for a 29-yard gain. Brown threw a 12-yarder to Joshua Porter to get to the Florida 20.
Betts’ ejection came two days after Philadelphia Eagles star defensive tackle Jalen Carter was booted from the game for spitting on Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott in the Eagles’ 24-20 victory on Thursday night.
“I haven’t had that conversation with him yet,” Napier said of Bett. “We’ll take a good look at it, but it’s unacceptable. I think we’ve got a lot of players in that room as well that have the same belief that it’s unacceptable.
“When a guy does something like that, he’s compromising the team. He’s putting himself before the team. Everything the game is about, you’re compromising, so there will be lessons to be learned there. Yeah, it’s that simple.”
Florida was penalized 11 times for 103 yards, and a handful were costly. In the first half, the Gators committed two penalties that wiped out touchdowns on the same possession. A holding penalty negated Ja’Kobi Jackson’s 20-yard scoring run, and then a pass-interference penalty brought back Lagways’ 14-yard touchdown pass to Tony Livingston.
Florida had to settle for Trey Smack’s 36-yard field goal and a 6-3 lead.
“Not good enough, and it’s my responsibility,” Napier said. “I think when you evaluate the game, the red zone missed opportunities caught up with us, and we let them hang around. Certainly the penalties contributed to the game. It extended their drives, and it slowed down our drives.”
Lagway, who led the Gators to a four-game winning streak to end the 2024 season, didn’t look comfortable against USF’s defense, and Florida’s offensive line struggled to protect him. He completed 23 of 33 passes for 222 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
The Bulls took a 13-9 lead into the fourth quarter after Byrum Brown threw a 66-yard touchdown to Keshawn Singleton with 2:03 left in the third. Florida had a bad snap that resulted in a safety, giving USF a 15-9 lead with 13 seconds to go in the quarter.
The Gators went ahead 16-15 on Lagway’s 4-yard touchdown pass to Eugene Wilson II with 12:29 to go, which came after Vernell Brown’s 40-yard punt return.
EUGENE, Ore. — A week that began with head coaches Mike Gundy and Dan Lanning trading barbs about each program’s budget ended with Oregon handing Oklahoma State a 69-3 loss — the worst of the Gundy era and the worst the program has seen since 1907.
“It never requires extra motivation for an opportunity to go out and kick ass,” Lanning said postgame regarding the message he sent his team. “But it never hurts when somebody pours gasoline on the fire.”
On Monday while speaking on his radio show, Gundy said Oregon is “paying a lot of money for their team,” citing $40 million as the amount he believed the Ducks spent on their roster last year. Gundy made several other comments about Oregon’s resources — he said “it’ll cost a lot of money to keep” quarterback Dante Moore and that he believes Oregon’s budget should determine the programs it schedules outside of the Big Ten.
“If you want to be a top-10 team in college football, you better be invested in winning. We spend to win,” Lanning said Monday in response. “Some people save to have an excuse for why they don’t. … I can’t speak on their situation; I have no idea what they got in their pockets over there.”
After Saturday’s win, Moore said Gundy’s comments hit “close to home” for him and the rest of the team and that the Ducks used them as motivation heading into the matchup.
“For him to attack Phil [Knight], Coach Lanning and our team was personal,” Moore, who threw for 266 yards and three touchdowns, said. “We were going to keep the foot on the neck and make sure we score these points and try to break the scoreboard.”
Break the scoreboard, they did. The Ducks had a 59-yard touchdown run on their second offensive play of the game and a 65-yard touchdown pass on their third offensive play of the game. Explosive plays were everywhere at Autzen as Oklahoma State’s defense provided little to no resistance. Oregon’s offense did not punt until the fourth quarter and totaled 631 yards to Oklahoma State’s 211 yards.
“It was a lot of fire going into this game,” Moore said.
The way Oregon came out of the gates, stepped on the gas pedal and didn’t relent until it was up 48-3 halfway through the third quarter, when it brought in the offensive backups, seemed very purposeful. The two pick-sixes that pushed the Ducks’ score into the 60s added insult to injury.
“It’s still about us,” Lanning said. “Our ability to ignore the noise is the thing that’s going to make us go.”
Lanning, as he did on Monday, said postgame that he has a lot of respect for Gundy and even noted that the result probably had Gundy saying “I told you so” regarding his comments about the disparity in resources between the two schools.
“When I made that comment, I was complimenting Oregon for what they had done,” Gundy said. “Second thing, which I said later in the week is, we’ve made commitments also, but we have to be better and fundamentally sound and execute.”
Gundy is now 4-10 over his past 14 games as the Cowboys’ head coach, and two of those losses — Saturday’s at Oregon and last year’s 52-0 loss to Colorado — are the worst of his career.
“Sometimes you’re going to play people that have the ability to run away from you,” Gundy said. “We gotta look at that and see where we’re at. We didn’t play good enough, in the systems that we had, to put ourselves in that position.”
As the heat rises around the coach who has helmed the Oklahoma State program since 2005, Gundy’s son, Gavin, took to X to defend his father.
“Mike Gundy IS Oklahoma State football,” Gavin said as part of a long thread of posts. “Period. As QB, he set records in the Barry Sanders era. As coach, he stacked 160+ wins, 19 straight bowls, a Big 12 title, two Fiesta Bowls, multiple Top-10 finishes, & sent dudes to the NFL year after year. He’s the winningest coach in OSU history & the most important name this program has EVER had. Without him, you’d have nothing to brag about, nothing to watch, nothing to cry about”
Soon after, Gavin’s thread was deleted from the site.
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