A potential water war is in the making after India suspended the Indus Water Treaty.
The decision came in retaliation to terror attacks in Kashmir, which were followed by a four-day conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
Pakistan says, if not reversed, it amounts to an act of war. India’s response – blood and water cannot flow together.
What is the Indus Water Treaty?
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960 governs how the six rivers that flow through India are shared.
While India gets unrestricted use of the three eastern rivers – the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, Pakistan is allotted the lion’s share of the three western rivers – the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum.
The average annual flow of the western rivers (135.6 million acre ft) is more than four times that of the eastern ones (32.6 million acre ft).
Though India can use a fraction of the waters of the western rivers for irrigation and hydropower, it has to eventually release all the waters downstream.
Image: Salal Dam on the Chenab River in Kashmir
Surinder Thapa, former chief engineer of the Baglihar Dam, who has been associated with the Indus Water Treaty Commission over the past 20 years, told Sky News: “It’s totally a biased treaty as it was not negotiated on minute technical parameters as there is unequal share of the volume of water.
“India has suffered and is still struggling with its water projects. Some have even closed because they have become economically unviable.”
How India could respond
India demanded a modification of the treaty under Article XII in 2023, to take into consideration its changing demographics, water and energy requirements, climate change disaster mitigation, and cross-border terrorism.
The treaty has provisions for modification under certain circumstances – but there are no clauses for unilateral exit or suspension. India is taking its position as a legal decision under international law.
It cannot stop water from flowing across the border, as it lacks storage infrastructure and the capacity to divert large amounts of water.
But there are ways in which India could potentially harm its neighbour – by not sharing data on the volume of water in the rivers, withholding flow or releasing or even tampering with the volume, that could affect agriculture, power generation, consumption, and even cause floods in Pakistan.
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3:09
Explained: India-Pakistan conflict
Pakistan’s reliance on the network
More than 80% of Pakistan’s irrigated land is watered by the Indus network.
Agriculture is its backbone, employing more than half its population and contributing almost a quarter of its GDP.
It is already one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. Disruption to its rivers would have massive effects on its economy and people.
Across the border in Pakistan, farmers are worried about the uncertainty of its neighbour.
Muhammad Nawaz, a farmer from Nikaiyan Da Kot in Gujrat, Pakistan, told Sky News: “Our government must respond, we already have nothing, and if they stop giving us water, then what is left for us.”
Hassan Ullah, who lives in the village of Kot Nikka, said: “India is violating the agreements made with the government. Pakistan should take up this issue at the international level.”
Since the suspension, India has carried out flushing and desilting of its dams – helping to increase its storage and making its hydropower projects more efficient.
Mr Thapa said: “For all these years we cooperated 120% with Pakistan but they kept raising irrelevant technical questions only to delay our projects – causing huge financial losses.
“We don’t want to bleed people in Pakistan, but we are left with no option but to teach them a lesson of how much sacrifice we have made.
“We need to make huge storage dams and navigation projects with no checks by anyone anymore.”
Recent India-Pakistan conflict
The fraught relationship between the two nuclear-armed neighbours worried the world when both countries attacked each other. Dozens of people were killed and hundreds of livelihoods were destroyed on both sides of the border.
The village of Kot Maira in Akhnur district, just a couple of miles from the Pakistan border, has been one of the most targeted in the region.
Image: The village of Kot Maira, just miles away from India’s border with Pakistan
Bari Ram, 59, had a miraculous escape. He left his home with his son just a few minutes before artillery shells destroyed it, killing all his cattle.
He told Sky News: “This happened after the ceasefire, everything is destroyed. We can’t sleep as we don’t know when the next bomb will fall.”
In a hospital room in Jammu, 46-year-old Rameez is having his wounds dressed. He’s not completely out of danger as shrapnel is still embedded in his liver and ribs. He’s already lost a lot of blood and doctors don’t want to operate on him just yet.
Image: Rameez, 46
But it’s not the physical pain that traumatises him as much as the loss of his twins, 12-year-olds Zoya and Zain.
They got caught up in heavy Pakistani shelling when they tried to escape from their home.
Image: Twins Zain and Zoya, 12, who were killed during the recent conflict
Image: Rameez (left), his wife, and children
Their aunt Maria Khan told Sky News: “The bombs fell behind them while they were getting out, Zoya was hit at the back of her head, her ribs were broken and she was bleeding.
“My brother picked her up and within seconds she died in his arms. He saw a neighbour trying to resuscitate Zain, but he had already died.”
Image: Maria Khan, Zoya and Zain’s aunt
Unable to hold back tears, she added: “That’s why us who live on the border areas want only peace. We know and experience the effects of real war. Our innocent children have died. This pain is unbearable and unreplaceable.”
For the moment, the precarious ceasefirebetween the countries is holding. But for so many it has come too late.
Two Israeli human rights organisations have said the country is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.
In reports published on Monday, B’Tselem and Physicians for Human Rights (PHR) said Israel was carrying out “coordinated, deliberate action to destroy Palestinian society in the Gaza Strip”.
The two groups are the first major voices within Israeli society to make such accusations against the state during nearly 22 months of war against Hamas.
Israel has vehemently denied claims of genocide. David Mencer, a spokesperson for the government, called the allegation by the rights groups “baseless”.
He said: “There is no intent, (which is) key for the charge of genocide… it simply doesn’t make sense for a country to send in 1.9 million tonnes of aid, most of that being food, if there is an intent of genocide.”
B’Tselem director Yuli Novak called for urgent action, saying: “What we see is a clear, intentional attack on civilians in order to destroy a group.”
The organisation’s report “is one we never imagined we would have to write,” Ms Novak said. “The people of Gaza have been displaced, bombed, and starved, left completely stripped of their humanity and rights.”
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PHR said Israel’s military campaign shows evidence of a “deliberate and systemic dismantling of Gaza’s health and life-sustaining systems”.
Both organisations said Israel’s Western allies were enabling the genocidal campaign, and shared responsibility for suffering in Gaza.
“It couldn’t happen without the support of the Western world,” Ms Novak said. “Any leader that is not doing whatever they can to stop it is part of this horror.”
Hamas said the reports by the two groups were a “clear and unambiguous testimony from within Israeli society itself regarding the grave crimes perpetrated by the occupation regime against our people”.
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2:39
Sky News on board Gaza aid plane
Dire humanitarian conditions
Since Israel launched its offensive in Gaza following the deadly Hamas attack on 7 October 2023, nearly 60,000 people – mostly civilians – have been killed, according to Gaza health officials.
Much of the infrastructure has been destroyed, and nearly the whole population of more than two million has been displaced.
An increasing number of people in Gaza are also dying from starvation and malnutrition, according to Gaza health authorities.
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On Monday, the Gaza health ministry reported that at least 14 people had died from starvation and malnutrition in the past 24 hours, raising the total number of hunger-related deaths during the war to 147.
Among the victims were 88 children, with most of the deaths occurring in recent weeks.
UN agencies say the territory is running out of food for its people and accuse Israel of not allowing enough aid deliveries to the enclave. Israel denies those claims.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday said “there is no starvation in Gaza” and vowed to fight on against Hamas.
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0:44
Trump: Gaza children ‘look very hungry’
US President Donald Trump said on Monday that many in Gaza are facing starvation and implied that Israel could take further steps to improve humanitarian access.
Israel has repeatedly said its actions in Gaza are in self-defence, placing full responsibility for civilian casualties on Hamas. It cites the militant group’s refusal to release hostages, surrender, or stop operating within civilian areas – allegations that Hamas denies.
The United Nations has condemned airdrops on Gaza, warning they risk killing the starving Palestinians they are intended to help.
Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel parachuted aid packages into the territory for the first time in months at the weekend amid claims a third of the population has not eaten for days.
But Philippe Lazzarini, commissioner-general for the UN Relief and Work Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA), has said they “will not reverse the deepening starvation” and often do more harm than good.
“They are expensive, inefficient & can even kill starving civilians,” he wrote in a statement on X.
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There are several ways humanitarian agencies and international allies can deliver aid to regions in need – by land, by sea, or by air.
While parachuting in supply packages from planes may look impressive, airdrops are “fraught with problems”, Sky correspondent in Jordan Sally Lockwood says, and often used as a “desperate last resort”.
“Foreign nations know airdrops are a deeply flawed way of delivering aid,” she says.
“Palestinian sources tell us the aid that’s been dropped so far is not reaching the most vulnerable. They are an attempt to get something to a few – often viewed as a desperate last resort. Gaza is at that point.”
Image: A plane drops aid over Gaza City on Sunday. Pic: AP
Image: Air drops land over Gaza City on Sunday. Pic: AP
Military analyst Sean Bell says that delivering aid by air is ideally done when planes can land on a runway – but Gaza’s only landing strip in Rafah was shut down in 2021.
The alternative is “very dangerous”, he warns. “Aircraft flying relatively low and slow over a warzone isn’t very clever. When these parcels hit the ground, there’s a significant danger of them hitting people.”
Image: People in Gaza scramble for aid on Saturday. Pic: @ibrahim.st7 via Storyful
Crucially, they can only deliver a fraction of what lorries can.
“The really big issue is aircraft can only deliver one truckload of aid. Gaza needs 500 truckloads a day, so it’s 0.2% of the daily need,” Bell adds.
They also risk falling into the wrong hands and ending up on the black market.
“Some of it has been looted by gangs and is on the black market already,” Lockwood says.
Image: Air drops land in northern Gaza on Sunday. Pic: AP
Why are they happening now?
Israel cut off all supplies to Gaza at the beginning of March, reopening some aid centres in May, but with restrictions they said were designed to stop goods being stolen by Hamas militants.
Israeli authorities control the only three border crossings to the strip: Kerem Shalom in the south, Crossing 147 in the centre, and Erez to the north.
Since the current conflict with Hamas began in October 2023, humanitarian agencies and world leaders have repeatedly accused Israel of not allowing enough deliveries through.
Mr Lazzarini says the UN has “the equivalent of 6,000 trucks” in neighbouring Jordan and Egypt “waiting for the green light to get into Gaza”.
Israel says it has commissioned a “one-week scale-up of aid”, having conducted its own airdrops on Saturday.
In a statement over the weekend, the Israeli Defence Forces said it will work with the UN and other aid organisations to ensure aid is delivered but no more details were given.
Meanwhile on Sunday, it began daily 10-hour pauses in fighting in three areas of Gaza to address the deteriorating humanitarian situation.
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1:19
Baby Zainab starved to death in Gaza
According to the Hamas-run health ministry, 133 Palestinians had died of malnutrition by then, including 87 children.
Doctors Without Borders warned on Friday that 25% of young children and pregnant women in Gaza are malnourished.
Israel says there is no famine in Gaza.
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4:21
Sky’s Sally Lockwood on the runway in Jordan ahead of Gaza aid airdrop
What are in the airdrops and who is behind them?
Air packages are largely being delivered by C-130 planes. Jordan is reported to be using 10 and the UAE eight.
They can carry eight pallets of goods each, weighing around eight tonnes in total, according to Lockwood, who is on the runway at Jordan’s King Abdullah II airbase.
There are no medical supplies in the packages, she says, only dried food, rice, flour, and baby formula.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has said the UK will help with airdrops – but no British aircraft have been seen in Jordan so far.
He will discuss the matter with US President Donald Trump during talks in Scotland on Monday.
The RAF delivered 110 tonnes of aid across 10 drops last year as part of a Jordanian-led international coalition – but it is not clear what level of support will be offered this time.
Israel has agreed to support a “one-week scale-up of aid” in Gaza – but the United Nations has warned more action is needed to “stave off famine and a catastrophic health crisis”.
UN aid chief Tom Fletcher made the remarks as Israel began limited pauses in fighting across three areas of Gaza for 10 hours a day to address the worsening humanitarian situation.
Image: A Palestinian man in Beit Lahia carries aid that entered Gaza through Israel. Pic: Reuters
On Saturday, reports referencing US government data said there was no evidence Hamashad stolen aid from UN agencies.
Images of emaciated Palestinian children have led to widespread criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza, including by allies who are calling for an end to the war.
Mr Fletcher said one in three people in Gaza “hasn’t eaten for days” and “children are wasting away”.
He added: “We welcome Israel’s decision to support a one-week scale-up of aid, including lifting customs barriers on food, medicine and fuel from Egypt and the reported designation of secure routes for UN humanitarian convoys.
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“Some movement restrictions appear to have been eased today, with initial reports indicating that over 100 truckloads were collected.
“This is progress, but vast amounts of aid are needed to stave off famine and a catastrophic health crisis. Across the UN agencies and humanitarian community, we are mobilised to save as many lives as we can.”
Image: An aircraft drops humanitarian aid over Gaza on Sunday. Pic: Reuters
The Israel Defence Forces said yesterday that it is halting military operations in Muwasi, Deir al Balah and Gaza City daily from 10am to 8pm local time (8am to 6pm UK time) until further notice.
Combat operations have continued outside of this 10-hour window. Health officials in Gaza said Israeli strikes killed at least 41 Palestinians overnight into Sunday morning, including 26 seeking aid.
In a statement, the IDF said it would also establish secure routes to help the UN and aid agencies deliver food and other supplies.
Image: A map showing the three areas of Gaza where military action has been paused
Israel’s announcement of what it calls a “tactical pause” in fighting comes after it resumed airdrops of aid into Gaza.
While the IDF reiterated claims there is “no starvation” in the territory, it said the airdrops would include “seven pallets of aid containing flour, sugar and canned food to be provided by international organisations”.
Palestinian sources confirmed that aid had begun dropping in northern parts of the territory.
Image: Palestinians in Beit Lahia carry aid supplies that entered Gaza through Israel. Pic: Reuters
Sabreen Hasson, a Palestinian mother who travelled to an aid point near the Zikim crossing to collect supplies, said: “I came to get flour for my children because they have not tasted flour for more than a week, and thank God, God provided me with a kilo of rice with difficulty.”
But Samira Yahda, who was in Zawaida in central Gaza, said: “We saw the planes, but we didn’t see what they dropped… they said trucks would pass, but we didn’t see the trucks.”
Another Palestinian told the AP news agency that some people feared going out and having a box of aid fall on their children.
Downing Street said Sir Keir will raise “what more can be done to secure the ceasefire [in the Middle East] urgently”, during the meeting at the US president’s Turnberry golf course in Ayrshire.
Reports also suggest the prime minister is planning to interrupt the summer recess and recall his cabinet to discuss the crisis on Tuesday.
Talks in Qatar over a ceasefire ended on Thursday after the US and Israel withdrew their negotiating teams.
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2:02
Bob Geldof: ‘Israeli authorities are lying’
Mr Trump blamed Hamas for the collapse of negotiations as he left the US for Scotland, saying the militant group “didn’t want to make a deal… they want to die”.
Meanwhile the exiled head of Hamas in Gaza, Khalil al Hayya, has warned ceasefire negotiations with Israel were “meaningless under continued blockade and starvation”.
In a recorded speech, he added: “The immediate and dignified delivery of food and medicine to our people is the only serious and genuine indication of whether continuing the negotiations is worthwhile.”
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0:51
Israel intercepts Gaza aid boat
During a meeting with the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen yesterday, Mr Trump emphasised the importance of securing the release of hostages held by Palestinian militants in Gaza.
He said: “They don’t want to give them back, and so Israel is going to have to make a decision.
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1:17
Starmer says UK will help drop aid to Gaza
“I know what I’d do, but I don’t think it’s appropriate that I say it. But Israel is going to have to make a decision,” he said.
Mr Trump also repeated claims, without evidence, that Hamas was stealing food coming into Gaza and selling it.