A potential water war is in the making after India suspended the Indus Water Treaty.
The decision came in retaliation to terror attacks in Kashmir, which were followed by a four-day conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
Pakistan says, if not reversed, it amounts to an act of war. India’s response – blood and water cannot flow together.
What is the Indus Water Treaty?
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960 governs how the six rivers that flow through India are shared.
While India gets unrestricted use of the three eastern rivers – the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, Pakistan is allotted the lion’s share of the three western rivers – the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum.
The average annual flow of the western rivers (135.6 million acre ft) is more than four times that of the eastern ones (32.6 million acre ft).
Though India can use a fraction of the waters of the western rivers for irrigation and hydropower, it has to eventually release all the waters downstream.
Image: Salal Dam on the Chenab River in Kashmir
Surinder Thapa, former chief engineer of the Baglihar Dam, who has been associated with the Indus Water Treaty Commission over the past 20 years, told Sky News: “It’s totally a biased treaty as it was not negotiated on minute technical parameters as there is unequal share of the volume of water.
“India has suffered and is still struggling with its water projects. Some have even closed because they have become economically unviable.”
How India could respond
India demanded a modification of the treaty under Article XII in 2023, to take into consideration its changing demographics, water and energy requirements, climate change disaster mitigation, and cross-border terrorism.
The treaty has provisions for modification under certain circumstances – but there are no clauses for unilateral exit or suspension. India is taking its position as a legal decision under international law.
It cannot stop water from flowing across the border, as it lacks storage infrastructure and the capacity to divert large amounts of water.
But there are ways in which India could potentially harm its neighbour – by not sharing data on the volume of water in the rivers, withholding flow or releasing or even tampering with the volume, that could affect agriculture, power generation, consumption, and even cause floods in Pakistan.
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Explained: India-Pakistan conflict
Pakistan’s reliance on the network
More than 80% of Pakistan’s irrigated land is watered by the Indus network.
Agriculture is its backbone, employing more than half its population and contributing almost a quarter of its GDP.
It is already one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. Disruption to its rivers would have massive effects on its economy and people.
Across the border in Pakistan, farmers are worried about the uncertainty of its neighbour.
Muhammad Nawaz, a farmer from Nikaiyan Da Kot in Gujrat, Pakistan, told Sky News: “Our government must respond, we already have nothing, and if they stop giving us water, then what is left for us.”
Hassan Ullah, who lives in the village of Kot Nikka, said: “India is violating the agreements made with the government. Pakistan should take up this issue at the international level.”
Since the suspension, India has carried out flushing and desilting of its dams – helping to increase its storage and making its hydropower projects more efficient.
Mr Thapa said: “For all these years we cooperated 120% with Pakistan but they kept raising irrelevant technical questions only to delay our projects – causing huge financial losses.
“We don’t want to bleed people in Pakistan, but we are left with no option but to teach them a lesson of how much sacrifice we have made.
“We need to make huge storage dams and navigation projects with no checks by anyone anymore.”
Recent India-Pakistan conflict
The fraught relationship between the two nuclear-armed neighbours worried the world when both countries attacked each other. Dozens of people were killed and hundreds of livelihoods were destroyed on both sides of the border.
The village of Kot Maira in Akhnur district, just a couple of miles from the Pakistan border, has been one of the most targeted in the region.
Image: The village of Kot Maira, just miles away from India’s border with Pakistan
Bari Ram, 59, had a miraculous escape. He left his home with his son just a few minutes before artillery shells destroyed it, killing all his cattle.
He told Sky News: “This happened after the ceasefire, everything is destroyed. We can’t sleep as we don’t know when the next bomb will fall.”
In a hospital room in Jammu, 46-year-old Rameez is having his wounds dressed. He’s not completely out of danger as shrapnel is still embedded in his liver and ribs. He’s already lost a lot of blood and doctors don’t want to operate on him just yet.
Image: Rameez, 46
But it’s not the physical pain that traumatises him as much as the loss of his twins, 12-year-olds Zoya and Zain.
They got caught up in heavy Pakistani shelling when they tried to escape from their home.
Image: Twins Zain and Zoya, 12, who were killed during the recent conflict
Image: Rameez (left), his wife, and children
Their aunt Maria Khan told Sky News: “The bombs fell behind them while they were getting out, Zoya was hit at the back of her head, her ribs were broken and she was bleeding.
“My brother picked her up and within seconds she died in his arms. He saw a neighbour trying to resuscitate Zain, but he had already died.”
Image: Maria Khan, Zoya and Zain’s aunt
Unable to hold back tears, she added: “That’s why us who live on the border areas want only peace. We know and experience the effects of real war. Our innocent children have died. This pain is unbearable and unreplaceable.”
For the moment, the precarious ceasefirebetween the countries is holding. But for so many it has come too late.
“Terrible”, “weird”, “peculiar” and “baffling” – some of the adjectives being levelled by observers at the Donald Trump administration’s peace plan for Ukraine.
The 28-point proposal was cooked up between Trump negotiator Steve Witkoff and Kremlin official Kirill Dmitriev without European and Ukrainian involvement.
It effectively dresses up Russian demands as a peace proposal. Demands first made by Russia at the high watermark of its invasion in 2022, before defeats forced it to retreat from much of Ukraine.
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Ukrainian support for peace plan ‘very much in doubt’
The suspicion is Mr Witkoff and Mr Dmitriev conspired together to choose this moment to put even more pressure on the Ukrainian president.
Perversely, though, it may help him.
There has been universal condemnation and outrage in Kyiv at the Witkoff-Dmitriev plan. Rivals have little choice but to rally around the wartime Ukrainian leader as he faces such unreasonable demands.
The genesis of this plan is unclear.
Was it born from Donald Trump’s overinflated belief in his peacemaking abilities? His overrated Gaza ceasefire plan attracted lavish praise from world leaders, but now seems mired in deepening difficulty.
The fear is Mr Trump’s team are finding ways to allow him to walk away from this conflict altogether, blaming Ukrainian intransigence for the failure of his diplomacy.
Mr Trump has already ended financial support for Ukraine, acting as an arms dealer instead, selling weapons to Europe to pass on to the invaded democracy.
If he were to take away military intelligence support too, Ukraine would be blind to the kind of attacks that in recent days have killed scores of civilians.
Europe and Ukraine cannot reject the plan entirely and risk alienating Mr Trump.
They will play for time and hope against all the evidence he can still be persuaded to desert the Kremlin and put pressure on Vladimir Putin to end the war, rather than force Ukraine to surrender instead.
This is the first time the G20 summit is being hosted on African soil.
Heads of state from 15 countries across Europe, Asia and South America are expected to convene in South Africa’s economic capital, Johannesburg, under the banner of “solidarity, equality and sustainability.”
The summit is facing challenges from the Oval Office as US President Donald Trump boycotts the event, where the G20 leadership is meant to be handed over to him by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.
The US has also warned South Africa against issuing a joint declaration at the end of the summit. The challenges to South Africa’s G20debut are also domestic.
Image: Trump had a contentious meeting with Cyril Ramaphosa in the Oval Office earlier this year. File pic: AP
Nationwide civic disobedience has been planned by women’s rights charities, nationalist groups and trade unions – all using this moment to draw the government’s attention to critical issues it has failed to address around femicide, immigration and high unemployment.
But a key symbolic threat to the credibility of an African G20 summit themed around inclusivity is the continued exclusion and marginalisation of its oldest communities.
“There is a disingenuous thread that runs right through many of these gatherings, and the G20 is no different”, Khoisan Chief Zenzile tells us in front of the First Nations Heritage Centre in Cape Town, “from any of them”.
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“I am very concerned that the many marginalised sections of society – youth, indigenous people, are not inside the front and centre of this agenda,” he added.
Image: Khoisan Chief Zenzile says land developments on indigenous land are the ‘most ridiculous notion’
As we speak, the sounds of construction echo around us. We are standing in a curated indigenous garden as South Africa’s Amazon headquarters is being built nearby.
After years of being sidelined by the government in a deal that centres around construction on sacred Khoisan land, Chief Zenzile said he negotiated directly with the developers to build the heritage centre and sanctuary as a trade-off while retaining permanent ownership of the land.
“There are many people who like to fetishise indigenous people who want to relegate us to an anthropoid state, as if that is the only place we can, as if we don’t have the tools to navigate the modern world,” he says when I ask about modern buildings towering over the sacred land.
“That is the most ridiculous notion – that the entire world must progress and we must be relegated to a state over which we have no agency.”
An hour and a half from Cape Town’s centre, Khoi-San communities have seized 2,000 hectares of land that they say historically belongs to them.
Knoflokskraal is a state where they exercise full agency – filling in the infrastructural gaps around water and electricity supply that the provincial government will not offer to residents it categorises as “squatters”.
“We are – exactly today – here for five years now,” Dawid De Wee, president of the Khoi Aboriginal Party, tells us as he gives us a tour of the settlement. “There are more or less around 4,000 of us.
“The calling from our ancestral graves sent us down here, so we had an urge to get our own identity and get back to our roots, and that was the driving motive behind everything we are here now to take back our ancestral grounds.”
Image: ‘We are here now to take back our ancestral grounds,’ Dawid De Wee says
Dawid says they have plans to expand to reclaim more swathes of land stolen from them by European settlers in the 1600s across the Cape Colony.
Land reform is a contentious issue in post-Apartheid South Africa, with a white minority still owning a majority of the land.
Indigenous land is even further down the agenda of reparations, and South Africa’s oldest communities continue to suffer from historic dispossession and marginalisation.
For many Khoi-San leaders, G20 represents the ongoing exclusion from a modern South African state.
They have not been invited to officially participate in events where “solidarity, equality and sustainability,” are being discussed without reference to their age-old knowledge.
Instead, we meet Khoi-San Queen Eloise at a gathering of tribal leaders from around the world on the most southwestern tip of Africa in Cape Point called the World Tribal Alliance.
Image: Khoi-San Queen Eloise tells Sky that the G20 ‘is a politically-based gathering’
“In order for us to heal, Mother Nature and Mother Earth is calling us, calling our kinship, to come together – especially as indigenous people because with indigenous people we are still connected to our lands, to our intellectual property we are connected to who we are,” Queen Eloise tells us.
“G20 is a politically-based gathering – they are coming together to determine the future of people politically.
“The difference is that we will seek what Mother Earth wants from us and not what we want to do with technology or all those things politically, but the depth of where we are supposed to go.”
A fierce warning from Britain’s defence secretary to Vladimir Putin to turn his spy ship away from UK waters or face the consequences was a very public attempt to deter the threat.
But unless John Healey backs his rhetoric up with a far more urgent push to rearm – and to rebuild wider national resilience – he risks his words ringing as hollow as his military.
The defence secretary on Wednesday repeated government plans to increase defence spending and work with NATO allies to bolster European security.
Image: Russian Ship Yantar transiting through the English Channel.
File pic: MOD
Instead of focusing purely on the threat, he also stressed how plans to buy weapons and build arms factories will create jobs and economic growth.
In a sign of the government’s priorities, job creation is typically the top line of any Ministry of Defence press release about its latest investment in missiles, drones and warships rather than why the equipment is vital to defend the nation.
I doubt expanding employment opportunities was the motivating factor in the 1930s when the UK converted car factories into Spitfire production lines to prepare for war with Nazi Germany.
Yet communicating to the public what war readiness really means must surely be just as important today.
Image: Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. Pic: Reuters
Mr Healey also chose this moment of national peril to attempt to score political points by criticising the previous Conservative government for hollowing out the armed forces – when the military was left in a similarly underfunded state during the last Labour government.
A report by a group of MPs, released on the same day as Mr Healey rattled his sabre at Russia, underlined the scale of the challenge the UK faces.
Image: HMS Somerset flanking Russian ship Yantar near UK waters. on January 22, 2025.
File pic: Royal Navy/PA
It accused the government of lacking a national plan to defend itself from attack.
The Defence Select Committee also warned that Mr Healey, Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of the cabinet are moving at a “glacial” pace to fix the problem and are failing to launch a “national conversation on defence and security” – something the prime minister had promised last year.
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The report backed up the findings of a wargame podcast by Sky News and Tortoise that simulated what might happen if Russia launched waves of missile strikes against the UK.
The series showed how successive defence cuts since the end of the Cold War means the army, navy and air force are woefully equipped to defend the home front.
But credible national defences also require the wider country to be prepared for war.
A set of plans setting out what must happen in the transition from peace to war was quietly shelved at the start of this century, so there no longer exists a rehearsed and resourced system to ensure local authorities, businesses and the wider population know what to do.
Image: John Healey.
Pic: PA
Mr Healey revealed that the Russian spy ship had directed a laser light presumably to dazzle pilots of a Royal Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that was tracking it.
“That Russian action is deeply dangerous,” he said.
“So, my message to Russia and to Putin, is this: We see you. We know what you are doing. And if Yantar travels south this week, we are ready.”
He did not spell out what this might mean but it could include attempts to block the Russian vessel’s passage, or even fire warning shots to force it to retreat.
Image: The Russian ship Yantar is docked in Buenos Aires in 2017
Pic: David Fernandez/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
However, any direct engagement could trigger a retaliation from Moscow.
For now, the Russian ship – fitted with spying equipment to monitor critical national infrastructure such as communications cables on the seabed – has moved away from the UK coast. It was at its closest between 5 and 11 November.
The military is still tracking its movements closely in case the ship returns.