A potential water war is in the making after India suspended the Indus Water Treaty.
The decision came in retaliation to terror attacks in Kashmir, which were followed by a four-day conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
Pakistan says, if not reversed, it amounts to an act of war. India’s response – blood and water cannot flow together.
What is the Indus Water Treaty?
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960 governs how the six rivers that flow through India are shared.
While India gets unrestricted use of the three eastern rivers – the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, Pakistan is allotted the lion’s share of the three western rivers – the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum.
The average annual flow of the western rivers (135.6 million acre ft) is more than four times that of the eastern ones (32.6 million acre ft).
Though India can use a fraction of the waters of the western rivers for irrigation and hydropower, it has to eventually release all the waters downstream.
Image: Salal Dam on the Chenab River in Kashmir
Surinder Thapa, former chief engineer of the Baglihar Dam, who has been associated with the Indus Water Treaty Commission over the past 20 years, told Sky News: “It’s totally a biased treaty as it was not negotiated on minute technical parameters as there is unequal share of the volume of water.
“India has suffered and is still struggling with its water projects. Some have even closed because they have become economically unviable.”
How India could respond
India demanded a modification of the treaty under Article XII in 2023, to take into consideration its changing demographics, water and energy requirements, climate change disaster mitigation, and cross-border terrorism.
The treaty has provisions for modification under certain circumstances – but there are no clauses for unilateral exit or suspension. India is taking its position as a legal decision under international law.
It cannot stop water from flowing across the border, as it lacks storage infrastructure and the capacity to divert large amounts of water.
But there are ways in which India could potentially harm its neighbour – by not sharing data on the volume of water in the rivers, withholding flow or releasing or even tampering with the volume, that could affect agriculture, power generation, consumption, and even cause floods in Pakistan.
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Explained: India-Pakistan conflict
Pakistan’s reliance on the network
More than 80% of Pakistan’s irrigated land is watered by the Indus network.
Agriculture is its backbone, employing more than half its population and contributing almost a quarter of its GDP.
It is already one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. Disruption to its rivers would have massive effects on its economy and people.
Across the border in Pakistan, farmers are worried about the uncertainty of its neighbour.
Muhammad Nawaz, a farmer from Nikaiyan Da Kot in Gujrat, Pakistan, told Sky News: “Our government must respond, we already have nothing, and if they stop giving us water, then what is left for us.”
Hassan Ullah, who lives in the village of Kot Nikka, said: “India is violating the agreements made with the government. Pakistan should take up this issue at the international level.”
Since the suspension, India has carried out flushing and desilting of its dams – helping to increase its storage and making its hydropower projects more efficient.
Mr Thapa said: “For all these years we cooperated 120% with Pakistan but they kept raising irrelevant technical questions only to delay our projects – causing huge financial losses.
“We don’t want to bleed people in Pakistan, but we are left with no option but to teach them a lesson of how much sacrifice we have made.
“We need to make huge storage dams and navigation projects with no checks by anyone anymore.”
Recent India-Pakistan conflict
The fraught relationship between the two nuclear-armed neighbours worried the world when both countries attacked each other. Dozens of people were killed and hundreds of livelihoods were destroyed on both sides of the border.
The village of Kot Maira in Akhnur district, just a couple of miles from the Pakistan border, has been one of the most targeted in the region.
Image: The village of Kot Maira, just miles away from India’s border with Pakistan
Bari Ram, 59, had a miraculous escape. He left his home with his son just a few minutes before artillery shells destroyed it, killing all his cattle.
He told Sky News: “This happened after the ceasefire, everything is destroyed. We can’t sleep as we don’t know when the next bomb will fall.”
In a hospital room in Jammu, 46-year-old Rameez is having his wounds dressed. He’s not completely out of danger as shrapnel is still embedded in his liver and ribs. He’s already lost a lot of blood and doctors don’t want to operate on him just yet.
Image: Rameez, 46
But it’s not the physical pain that traumatises him as much as the loss of his twins, 12-year-olds Zoya and Zain.
They got caught up in heavy Pakistani shelling when they tried to escape from their home.
Image: Twins Zain and Zoya, 12, who were killed during the recent conflict
Image: Rameez (left), his wife, and children
Their aunt Maria Khan told Sky News: “The bombs fell behind them while they were getting out, Zoya was hit at the back of her head, her ribs were broken and she was bleeding.
“My brother picked her up and within seconds she died in his arms. He saw a neighbour trying to resuscitate Zain, but he had already died.”
Image: Maria Khan, Zoya and Zain’s aunt
Unable to hold back tears, she added: “That’s why us who live on the border areas want only peace. We know and experience the effects of real war. Our innocent children have died. This pain is unbearable and unreplaceable.”
For the moment, the precarious ceasefirebetween the countries is holding. But for so many it has come too late.
At Kabul International Airport, there are dozens of confused looking families.
Many are holding flowers, waiting and hoping their loved ones will touch down.
Others came here hoping to take-off but are now sitting bewildered in the hot sun.
After the Taliban imposed a nationwide shutdown of the internet, no one knows if any flights are still operating and no one can use their phones to find out.
Image: The Taliban caught many in the country off-guard with their shutdown. File pic: West Asia News Agency via Reuters
“I am waiting for my brother from Australia,” one man tells me, “but I don’t know if he’s coming”.
Beyond the gates, the runway is full of grounded planes.
After hours of waiting on Tuesday, no international flights took off or arrived at Kabul Airport, despite some airlines scheduling departures.
The Taliban caught many in the country off-guard with their shutdown – reportedly even some of their own ministers.
Initially, there appeared to be no official indication of how long the shutdown might last or an explanation for why it was imposed.
Image: A man tries to use Google on his smartphone in the Afghan capital. Pic: Reuters
On Wednesday, the Taliban government rejected reports of a nationwide internet ban, saying old fibre optic cables are worn out and are being replaced.
But, at the airport, people worry it could be indefinite. Others speculate about rumours it’s to do with security protocols and the movement of officials in the country.
No one knows, and the TV and radio stations they get their news from have not been providing the latest information.
Image: Men try to connect their smart TV to the internet. Pic: Reuters
The banks are open but no one can get out money. An employee at the bank in our hotel in Kabul told us they haven’t been able to open their operating systems since Tuesday morning and that Western Union isn’t accessible either.
That’s hugely significant in a country where many are reliant on money sent back by relatives abroad and banks are already struggling with sanctions.
No one can call the police, no one can call an ambulance, and hospitals and medical services are wrestling with how to adjust too.
It follows more than a week of temporary connectivity issues in some parts of the country, with the northern region of Balkh among the first to be affected by a ban on fibre optic internet.
Image: Taliban fighters ride on a pickup truck during celebrations marking the fourth anniversary of the US withdrawal. Pic: AP
In the last 10 days, we have been travelling across Afghanistan. People in Nangarhar, Kunar, Mazar-i-Sharif and Herat all expressed concern about possible impending blackouts, and we personally experienced a slowdown in connectivity in these places. But nothing as widespread or sustained as this shutdown which is nationwide.
Two weeks ago, the Taliban’s provincial government spokesman Haji Attaullah Zaid said leader Hibatullah Akhundzada had imposed a “complete ban” on cable internet access in Balkh.
“This measure was taken to prevent immorality, and an alternative will be built within the country for necessities,” Mr Zaid said.
It was said to be connected to concerns around pornography – but this was never officially stated by the Taliban.
We have tried to reach the government for comment via satellite phone but with no success.
Image: No one knows how long the shutdown will last. Pic: Reuters
The blackout has disrupted phone services. In countries with limited telecom infrastructure, phone networks are often routed through fibre-optic systems which have now been disabled.
The lack of connectivity has raised immediate concern in the aid community. Amnesty International called it “reckless” and said the shutdown would have “far-reaching consequences for the delivery of aid, access to healthcare and girls’ education”.
After the Taliban banned school for girls over the age of 12, many in the country have been secretly studying online.
During the previous temporary blackouts, the Taliban did warn more was to come. But no one appears to have anticipated this – not ordinary citizens, not foreign officials here in Kabul, not big business, not the airlines or the hospitals.
It is an indication of how quickly this country can turn and the power the Taliban has to disrupt and reshape its future.
Internationally, many are raising concerns that this is an attempt by the Taliban at widespread censorship and further restriction of girls’ education.
Whatever the intention of their move, it has created an extreme scenario: no one in this country can currently contact anyone – for an emergency, for a family member, or for guidance – creating a major information vacuum.
Princess Anne has placed a toy bear as a poignant tribute at a children’s memorial in Ukraine, during an unexpected visit to the war-ravaged country where she also met Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The King’s sister travelled to the capital Kyiv on Tuesday, at the request of the Foreign Office, in a show of solidarity with children and families facing the horrors of the Russian invasion.
The Princess Royal met Mr Zelenskyy to discuss the UK’s support for Ukraine and its ongoing resistance.
Image: The Princess Royal and First Lady Olena Zelenska laid soft toys during a visit to a memorial for children killed in the war. Pic: PA
Anne’s secret visit, which was not publicised beforehand for security reasons, came just two days after a Russian aerial bombardment killed at least four people in Kyiv, including a 12-year-old girl, and injured at least 70 others.
The attack, which lasted more than 12 hours, was one of the heaviest in recent months.
The purpose of her trip was to highlight the traumatic experiences of children living on the frontline, Buckingham Palace said.
Joining First Lady Olena Zelenska at the children’s memorial, Anne left the teddy in tribute to youngsters killed in the conflict, saying her daughter Zara Tindall had the same bear.
As the 75-year-old princess stepped back after placing the traditional-looking teddy at the base of the memorial alongside scores of other cuddly toys, she told Mrs Zelenska: “That was one that my daughter had.”
Mrs Zelenska also left a bear in tribute.
Image: Anne is the latest British royal to make a trip to Kyiv. Pic: PA
The site commemorates more than 650 children who have died since the start of the conflict in 2022.
In Kyiv, she also met female police and armed forces representatives and heard about their key role protecting women and children.
Visiting the Child Rights Protection Centre, she spoke to families and children who have been returned and reintegrated, and met some of those working to return more Ukrainian children.
Image: Princess Anne spoke to young people who lived under occupation. Pic: PA
Image: The Princess Royal met Ukrainian war veterans relaxing in a salt therapy room at a rehabilitation centre. Pic: PA
More than 19,500 Ukrainian children have been forcibly transferred or deported by the Russian authorities to Russia and the occupied territories of Ukraine.
Princess Anne is the second working royal to visit Ukraine.
In April last year, the Duchess of Edinburgh was the first to go and bring a letter of support from the King.
Anne also visited a rehabilitation centre, where she met Ukrainian veterans returning from the frontline.
The King has met Mr Zelenskyy a number of times and marked the country’s independence day in August by sending a message of solidarity.
During Donald Trump’s recent state visit to the UK, Charles also took the opportunity to stress the importance of supporting Ukraine.
He told the US president in his banquet speech: “Today, as tyranny once again threatens Europe, we and our allies stand together in support of Ukraine, to deter aggression and secure peace.”
At least 69 people have been killed in a powerful 6.9-magnitude earthquake that rocked the central Philippines.
The centre of the quake, which knocked out power lines and sent people running out into the streets, was about 12 miles northeast of Bogo, a coastal city of about 90,000 people on the island of Cebu.
Civil defence official Raffy Alejandro told reporters that the city’s hospital has been “overwhelmed,” and that the number of dead remains “fluid”.
Earlier, authorities said at least 14 residents in Bogo had died. Another official said more than 150 people were injured.
The tremor was set off by movement in a local fault at a depth of three miles at around 10pm (3pm in the UK) on Tuesday.
Image: Pic: AP
Gemma Villamor, head of the local disaster office, said earlier that in the town of Medellin, near Bogo, at least 12 residents died when the ceilings and walls of their homes collapsed, with some asleep at the time.
And in nearby San Remigio, vice mayor Alfie Reynes added that five people – including three coastguard members, a firefighter, and a child – were killed by collapsing walls while fleeing a basketball game.
He later told DZMM Radio: “It is raining heavily and there is no electricity so we really need help, especially in the northern part because there’s a scarcity of water after supply lines were damaged by the earthquake.”
Image: Medical teams in Cebu city, central Philippines, help the injured. Pic: AP
Image: Pic: AP
Businesses and landmark buildings have suffered damage, including an old Catholic church in the town of Daanbantayan, and roads have shown deep cracks.
The PhilippineInstitute of Volcanology and Seismology briefly issued a tsunami warning for Cebu and nearby provinces, but later lifted it after no unusual waves were detected.
The quake struck while Cebu and surrounding areas were still recovering from a severe storm that hit the central region days earlier, killing at least 27 people mainly from drownings and fallen trees, cutting power across cities, and forcing evacuations.
The Philippines, located on the Pacific Ring of Fire, is highly prone to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
It also faces around 20 typhoons and storms annually, making it one of the world’s most disaster-prone nations.