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A potential water war is in the making after India suspended the Indus Water Treaty.

The decision came in retaliation to terror attacks in Kashmir, which were followed by a four-day conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

Pakistan says, if not reversed, it amounts to an act of war. India’s response – blood and water cannot flow together.

What is the Indus Water Treaty?

The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960 governs how the six rivers that flow through India are shared.

While India gets unrestricted use of the three eastern rivers – the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, Pakistan is allotted the lion’s share of the three western rivers – the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum.

The average annual flow of the western rivers (135.6 million acre ft) is more than four times that of the eastern ones (32.6 million acre ft).

Though India can use a fraction of the waters of the western rivers for irrigation and hydropower, it has to eventually release all the waters downstream.

Salal Dam
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Salal Dam on the Chenab River in Kashmir

Surinder Thapa, former chief engineer of the Baglihar Dam, who has been associated with the Indus Water Treaty Commission over the past 20 years, told Sky News: “It’s totally a biased treaty as it was not negotiated on minute technical parameters as there is unequal share of the volume of water.

“India has suffered and is still struggling with its water projects. Some have even closed because they have become economically unviable.”

How India could respond

India demanded a modification of the treaty under Article XII in 2023, to take into consideration its changing demographics, water and energy requirements, climate change disaster mitigation, and cross-border terrorism.

The treaty has provisions for modification under certain circumstances – but there are no clauses for unilateral exit or suspension. India is taking its position as a legal decision under international law.

It cannot stop water from flowing across the border, as it lacks storage infrastructure and the capacity to divert large amounts of water.

But there are ways in which India could potentially harm its neighbour – by not sharing data on the volume of water in the rivers, withholding flow or releasing or even tampering with the volume, that could affect agriculture, power generation, consumption, and even cause floods in Pakistan.

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Explained: India-Pakistan conflict

Pakistan’s reliance on the network

More than 80% of Pakistan’s irrigated land is watered by the Indus network.

Agriculture is its backbone, employing more than half its population and contributing almost a quarter of its GDP.

It is already one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. Disruption to its rivers would have massive effects on its economy and people.

Across the border in Pakistan, farmers are worried about the uncertainty of its neighbour.

Muhammad Nawaz, a farmer from Nikaiyan Da Kot in Gujrat, Pakistan, told Sky News: “Our government must respond, we already have nothing, and if they stop giving us water, then what is left for us.”

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Hassan Ullah, who lives in the village of Kot Nikka, said: “India is violating the agreements made with the government. Pakistan should take up this issue at the international level.”

Since the suspension, India has carried out flushing and desilting of its dams – helping to increase its storage and making its hydropower projects more efficient.

Mr Thapa said: “For all these years we cooperated 120% with Pakistan but they kept raising irrelevant technical questions only to delay our projects – causing huge financial losses.

“We don’t want to bleed people in Pakistan, but we are left with no option but to teach them a lesson of how much sacrifice we have made.

“We need to make huge storage dams and navigation projects with no checks by anyone anymore.”

Recent India-Pakistan conflict

The fraught relationship between the two nuclear-armed neighbours worried the world when both countries attacked each other. Dozens of people were killed and hundreds of livelihoods were destroyed on both sides of the border.

The village of Kot Maira in Akhnur district, just a couple of miles from the Pakistan border, has been one of the most targeted in the region.

Indus Water
Image:
The village of Kot Maira, just miles away from India’s border with Pakistan

Indus Water

Bari Ram, 59, had a miraculous escape. He left his home with his son just a few minutes before artillery shells destroyed it, killing all his cattle.

He told Sky News: “This happened after the ceasefire, everything is destroyed. We can’t sleep as we don’t know when the next bomb will fall.”

Bari Ram
Image:
Bari Ram

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In a hospital room in Jammu, 46-year-old Rameez is having his wounds dressed. He’s not completely out of danger as shrapnel is still embedded in his liver and ribs. He’s already lost a lot of blood and doctors don’t want to operate on him just yet.

Rameez, 46
Image:
Rameez, 46

But it’s not the physical pain that traumatises him as much as the loss of his twins, 12-year-olds Zoya and Zain.

They got caught up in heavy Pakistani shelling when they tried to escape from their home.

Twins Zain and Zoya
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Twins Zain and Zoya, 12, who were killed during the recent conflict

Rameez (left) and his family
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Rameez (left), his wife, and children

Their aunt Maria Khan told Sky News: “The bombs fell behind them while they were getting out, Zoya was hit at the back of her head, her ribs were broken and she was bleeding.

“My brother picked her up and within seconds she died in his arms. He saw a neighbour trying to resuscitate Zain, but he had already died.”

Maria Khan
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Maria Khan, Zoya and Zain’s aunt

Unable to hold back tears, she added: “That’s why us who live on the border areas want only peace. We know and experience the effects of real war. Our innocent children have died. This pain is unbearable and unreplaceable.”

For the moment, the precarious ceasefire between the countries is holding. But for so many it has come too late.

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‘What did they do to be burned and bombed?’: Charity calls on UK to offer Gaza children life-saving treatment

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'What did they do to be burned and bombed?': Charity calls on UK to offer Gaza children life-saving treatment

A British charity has written to the prime minister and foreign secretary, urging them to allow seriously ill children from Gaza into the UK to receive life-saving medical treatment.

Warning: This article contains images readers may find distressing

The co-founder of Project Pure Hope told Sky News it was way past the time for words.

“Now, we need action,” Omar Dinn said.

He’s identified two children inside Gaza who urgently need help and is appealing to the UK government to issue visas as a matter of urgency.

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Britain has taken only two patients from Gaza for medical treatment in 20 months of Israeli bombardment.

A boy stands in ruins in Gaza
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Children are among the bulk of the casualties in Gaza

“Most of the people affected by this catastrophe that’s unfolding in Gaza are children,” he continued. “And children are the most vulnerable.

“They have nothing to do with the politics, and we really just need to see them for what they are.

“They are children, just like my children, just like everybody’s children in this country – and we have the ability to help them.”

Gaza: Fight for Survival Sky News teaser/promo image

Sky News has been sent video blogs from British surgeons working in Gaza right now which show the conditions and difficulties they’re working under.

They prepare for potential immediate evacuation whilst facing long lists, mainly of children, needing life-saving emergency treatment day after day.

Dr Victoria Rose in Gaza
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Dr Victoria Rose is a British surgeon working in southern Gaza’s last remaining hospital

Dr Victoria Rose told us: “Every time I come, I say it’s really bad, but this is on a completely different scale now. It’s mass casualties. It’s utter carnage.

“We are incapable of getting through this volume. We don’t have the personnel. We don’t have the medical supplies. And we really don’t have the facilities.

“We are the last standing hospital in the south of Gaza. We really are on our knees now.”

One of her patients is three-year-old Hatem, who was badly burned when an Israeli airstrike hit the family apartment.

Manal with her one-year-old son Karam
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Karam, aged one, has a birth defect that could be easily fixed with surgery


His pregnant mother and father were both killed, leaving him an orphan. He has 35 percent burns on his small body.

“It’s a massive burn for a little guy like this,” Dr Rose says. “He’s so adorable. His eyelids are burnt. His hands are burnt. His feet are burnt.”

Hatem’s grandfather barely leaves his hospital bedside. Hatem Senior told us: “What did these children do wrong to suffer such injuries? To be burned and bombed? We ask God to grant them healing.”

Hatem, aged three, in a hospital bed in Gaza
Hatem's grandfather at his bedside
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Hatem Senior


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The second child identified by the charity is Karam, who, aged one, is trying to survive in a tent in deeply unhygienic surroundings with a protruding intestine.

He’s suffering from a birth defect called Hirschsprung disease, which could be easily operated on with the right skills and equipment – unavailable to him in Gaza right now.

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Manal with her one-year-old son Karam
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Karam, aged one, has a birth defect that could be easily fixed with surgery


Karam’s mother Manal told our Gaza camera crew: “No matter how much I describe how much my son is suffering, I wouldn’t be able to describe it enough. I swear I am constantly crying.”

Children are among the bulk of casualties – some 16,000 have been killed, according to the latest figures from local health officials – and make up the majority of those being operated on, according to the British surgical team on the ground.

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‘Daylight robbery of land – sanctioned by Israeli authorities’: Inside ‘terrorised’ West Bank village

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'Daylight robbery of land - sanctioned by Israeli authorities': Inside 'terrorised' West Bank village

What’s unfolding in the Palestinian village of Ras al-Ayn is more than a land dispute – according to human rights groups, it is the systematic displacement of an entire community.

Activists on the ground report a surge in violence and intimidation by Israeli settlers aimed at driving Palestinian families from their homes.

Footage captured by Rachel Abramovitz, a member of the group Looking The Occupation In The Eye, shows activists trying to block settlers from seizing control of the village centre.

Palestinians are being pushed out by settlers in the West Bank
Palestinians say they are being forced off their land by intimidation
Image:
Palestinians say they are being forced off their land by intimidation

“They gradually invade the community and expand. The goal is to terrorise people, to make them flee,” Ms Abramovitz said.

Our visit comes as Israel said it would establish 22 new Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank – including new settlements and the legalisation of outposts already built without government authorisation.

The settler movement traces back to 1967, when Israel captured the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Gaza, and the Golan Heights during the Six-Day War.

Settlements began as small, often unofficial outposts. Over the decades, they’ve grown into towns and cities with state-provided infrastructure, roads, and security.

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Today, 700,000 Israeli settlers live in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, in communities considered illegal under international law – a designation Israel disputes.

Since the Hamas-led attacks on 7 October 2023 and Israel’s subsequent 19-month military bombardment of Gaza, violence by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank has escalated sharply.

According to the UN and human rights groups such as B’Tselem, the overwhelming number of these attacks are carried out with impunity, further pressuring Palestinians to flee.

Salaam Ka'abneh says they face daily assaults
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Salaam Ka’abneh says they face daily assaults

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Nine of Gazan doctor’s children killed

Salaam Ka’abneh, a lifelong resident of the Bedouin village of Ras al-Ayn in the Jordan Valley, says his family has lived on the land for more than 50 years. He fears they could be forced to leave.

Mr Ka’abneh said: “About a year and four months ago, settlers cut off our access to water and grazing land. They also stole more than 2,000 sheep from us in the Tel Al-Auja compound. We face daily assaults, day and night.

“They terrorise our children and women, throwing stones, firing bullets, and creating chaos with their vehicles. We are under siege. We no longer have access to pasture or water, and our sheep remain caged.”

Gaza: Fight for Survival Sky News teaser/promo image

Footage from the area shows settlers driving freely through Palestinian communities, some armed.

While the Israeli army officially governs Area C of the West Bank, where Ras al-Ayn is located, human rights groups say settler violence almost always goes unchecked.

Under international law, an occupying power is obligated to protect civilians under its control. But Sarit Michaeli of B’Tselem, an Israeli human rights group, says Israel is failing to uphold its responsibility.

“Israel doesn’t hold settlers accountable. On the contrary – settlers know that if they act violently, they’ll receive support from all branches of the government. There’s full impunity. In fact, it’s more accurate to say settlers function as a branch of the government.

“It’s daylight robbery of land – sanctioned by Israeli authorities,” Michaeli continues.

“And it amounts to ethnic cleansing – displacing large parts of the Palestinian population to make the area available for Israeli use.”

To understand more, we travelled to a hilltop outpost occupied by settlers overlooking Salaam’s village. But we did not get far. Our car was quickly surrounded, and the atmosphere turned hostile.

His family has lived on the land for more than 50 years, but Salaam Ka'abneh fears they could be forced to leave
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Salaam Ka’abneh and his family has lived on the land for more than 50 years

It was clear: we were not welcome. We left with no answers but with a deeper understanding of the fear these Palestinian communities live with daily.

International pressure is growing. The British government recently imposed sanctions on several settlers, including Daniella Weiss.

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Known as the ‘godmother’ of the settler movement, Weiss has been a key figure in expanding settlements across the West Bank.

“There will never be a Palestinian state between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean. Never,” Weiss declares. “We annex with facts on the ground. The goal is to block any possibility of a Palestinian state in the heartland of Israel.

“If Netanyahu wanted to stop me, he could.”

The Israeli government calls allegations of ethnic cleansing “baseless and without foundation”.

But human rights groups argue that what’s happening in the West Bank has gone far beyond creeping annexation.

Palestinian land is rapidly being consumed by settlements, military zones, and settler outposts – shrinking the space in which a future Palestinian state might one day exist.

You can watch a Sky News special programme on the conflict in Gaza on TV and mobile, at 9pm UK time, on Thursday.

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