A potential water war is in the making after India suspended the Indus Water Treaty.
The decision came in retaliation to terror attacks in Kashmir, which were followed by a four-day conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
Pakistan says, if not reversed, it amounts to an act of war. India’s response – blood and water cannot flow together.
What is the Indus Water Treaty?
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960 governs how the six rivers that flow through India are shared.
While India gets unrestricted use of the three eastern rivers – the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, Pakistan is allotted the lion’s share of the three western rivers – the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum.
The average annual flow of the western rivers (135.6 million acre ft) is more than four times that of the eastern ones (32.6 million acre ft).
Though India can use a fraction of the waters of the western rivers for irrigation and hydropower, it has to eventually release all the waters downstream.
Image: Salal Dam on the Chenab River in Kashmir
Surinder Thapa, former chief engineer of the Baglihar Dam, who has been associated with the Indus Water Treaty Commission over the past 20 years, told Sky News: “It’s totally a biased treaty as it was not negotiated on minute technical parameters as there is unequal share of the volume of water.
“India has suffered and is still struggling with its water projects. Some have even closed because they have become economically unviable.”
How India could respond
India demanded a modification of the treaty under Article XII in 2023, to take into consideration its changing demographics, water and energy requirements, climate change disaster mitigation, and cross-border terrorism.
The treaty has provisions for modification under certain circumstances – but there are no clauses for unilateral exit or suspension. India is taking its position as a legal decision under international law.
It cannot stop water from flowing across the border, as it lacks storage infrastructure and the capacity to divert large amounts of water.
But there are ways in which India could potentially harm its neighbour – by not sharing data on the volume of water in the rivers, withholding flow or releasing or even tampering with the volume, that could affect agriculture, power generation, consumption, and even cause floods in Pakistan.
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3:09
Explained: India-Pakistan conflict
Pakistan’s reliance on the network
More than 80% of Pakistan’s irrigated land is watered by the Indus network.
Agriculture is its backbone, employing more than half its population and contributing almost a quarter of its GDP.
It is already one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. Disruption to its rivers would have massive effects on its economy and people.
Across the border in Pakistan, farmers are worried about the uncertainty of its neighbour.
Muhammad Nawaz, a farmer from Nikaiyan Da Kot in Gujrat, Pakistan, told Sky News: “Our government must respond, we already have nothing, and if they stop giving us water, then what is left for us.”
Hassan Ullah, who lives in the village of Kot Nikka, said: “India is violating the agreements made with the government. Pakistan should take up this issue at the international level.”
Since the suspension, India has carried out flushing and desilting of its dams – helping to increase its storage and making its hydropower projects more efficient.
Mr Thapa said: “For all these years we cooperated 120% with Pakistan but they kept raising irrelevant technical questions only to delay our projects – causing huge financial losses.
“We don’t want to bleed people in Pakistan, but we are left with no option but to teach them a lesson of how much sacrifice we have made.
“We need to make huge storage dams and navigation projects with no checks by anyone anymore.”
Recent India-Pakistan conflict
The fraught relationship between the two nuclear-armed neighbours worried the world when both countries attacked each other. Dozens of people were killed and hundreds of livelihoods were destroyed on both sides of the border.
The village of Kot Maira in Akhnur district, just a couple of miles from the Pakistan border, has been one of the most targeted in the region.
Image: The village of Kot Maira, just miles away from India’s border with Pakistan
Bari Ram, 59, had a miraculous escape. He left his home with his son just a few minutes before artillery shells destroyed it, killing all his cattle.
He told Sky News: “This happened after the ceasefire, everything is destroyed. We can’t sleep as we don’t know when the next bomb will fall.”
In a hospital room in Jammu, 46-year-old Rameez is having his wounds dressed. He’s not completely out of danger as shrapnel is still embedded in his liver and ribs. He’s already lost a lot of blood and doctors don’t want to operate on him just yet.
Image: Rameez, 46
But it’s not the physical pain that traumatises him as much as the loss of his twins, 12-year-olds Zoya and Zain.
They got caught up in heavy Pakistani shelling when they tried to escape from their home.
Image: Twins Zain and Zoya, 12, who were killed during the recent conflict
Image: Rameez (left), his wife, and children
Their aunt Maria Khan told Sky News: “The bombs fell behind them while they were getting out, Zoya was hit at the back of her head, her ribs were broken and she was bleeding.
“My brother picked her up and within seconds she died in his arms. He saw a neighbour trying to resuscitate Zain, but he had already died.”
Image: Maria Khan, Zoya and Zain’s aunt
Unable to hold back tears, she added: “That’s why us who live on the border areas want only peace. We know and experience the effects of real war. Our innocent children have died. This pain is unbearable and unreplaceable.”
For the moment, the precarious ceasefirebetween the countries is holding. But for so many it has come too late.
France became the first G7 country to announce the move last week – while Ireland, Spain and Norway all officially recognised a Palestinian state last year.
Mr Carney told reporters in Ontario on Wednesday that Canada would do the same on certain conditions – including that the Palestinian Authority commits to fundamentally reforming its governance and to hold general elections in 2026 in which Hamas can play no part.
The Canadian prime minister said he had spoken with Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, earlier on Wednesday.
Following the announcement, the Israeli foreign ministry said in a statement: “The change in the position of the Canadian government at this time is a reward for Hamas and harms the efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and a framework for the release of the hostages.”
A White House official later anonymously told Reuters that US President Donald Trump also believes he would be “rewarding Hamas” if he recognises a Palestinian state and therefore doesn’t plan to do so.
“President Trump’s focus is on getting people fed (in Gaza),” the official added.
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What do Israelis think of UK’s plan to recognise Palestine?
Canada had long-stated it would only recognise a Palestinian state at the conclusion of peace talks with Israel.
However, Mr Carney said the reality on the ground, including the starvation of citizens in Gaza, means “the prospect of a Palestinian state is literally receding before our eyes”.
He added: “We are working ourselves, with others, to preserve the possibility of a two-state solution, to not allow the facts on the ground, deaths on the ground, the settlements on the ground, the expropriations on the ground, to get to such an extent that this is not possible.”
The Canadian prime minister also said he “condemns the fact Israel has allowed a catastrophe to unfold in Gaza”.
Image: Palestinians carry aid supplies that entered Gaza through Israel, in Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip.
Pic Reuters
British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced the UK could recognise a Palestinian state on Tuesday after he had a meeting with Mr Trump the previous day.
Sir Keir said the conditions Israel would have to meet in order to avoid such a move included taking substantive steps to end the “appalling situation in Gaza” and agreeing to a ceasefire.
Some 38 members of the House of Lords, including some of the UK’s most eminent lawyers, have since written to the attorney general to say that recognising a Palestinian state could be a breach of international law, The Times has reported.
They have said the territory may not meet the criteria for statehood under the Montevideo Convention, a treaty signed in 1933.
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0:48
Aid dropped into Gaza amid international pressure
Meanwhile, a Downing Street spokesperson confirmed Sir Keir had spoken to Mr Carney over the phone on Tuesday.
The spokesperson said: “They discussed the grave situation in the Middle East and last night’s action by the United States to tackle the severe threat posed by Iran’s nuclear programme.
“Both reiterated their support for a diplomatic solution and agreed that Iran must come back to the negotiating table with the United States as soon as possible.
“They looked forward to continuing their discussions at NATO this week.”
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A global hunger monitor has warned that a worst-case scenario of famine is unfolding in Gaza.
The Gaza health ministry reported seven more hunger-related deaths on Wednesday, including a two-year-old girl with an existing health condition.
Meanwhile, at least 48 Palestinians were killed and dozens were wounded on Wednesday while waiting for food at the Zikim Crossing, the main entry point for humanitarian aid to northern Gaza, according to the Shifa Hospital that received the casualties.
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Footage shows young girl in Gaza mourning family
It was not immediately clear who opened fire and there was no immediate comment from the Israeli military, which controls the crossing.
Israeli strikes and gunfire had earlier killed at least 46 Palestinians overnight and into Wednesday, most of them among crowds seeking food, health officials said.
The Israeli military did not immediately comment on any of the strikes. It says it only targets militants and blames civilian deaths on Hamas, because the group’s militants operate in densely populated areas.
US special envoy Steve Witkoff will travel to Israel on Thursday to discuss the next steps to address the situation in Gaza, an American official said.
An earthquake off the Russian peninsula of Kamchatka has triggered tsunami warnings in Japan, China, Hawaii, the US and central and Latin America.
The 8.8 magnitude earthquake occurred 12 miles below the surface of the water and around 80 miles southeast of the city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, northeastern Russia on Wednesday, according to the US Geological Survey.
So far, it’s the most powerful on record since the 9.1 Japanese earthquake of 2011, which left more than 15,000 people dead, and the sixth strongest since records began.
Tsunamis have started to reach land in Japan and Hawaii, with urgent warnings being issued across the Pacific – from Asia to the US and Canada. Here’s what we know so far.
How did it start?
The earthquake struck at shallow depth 80 miles southeast of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky – a city of 165,000 people along the coast of Russia’s Avacha Bay, at around midday on Wednesday, local time (1am UK).
Image: A map shows the epicentre of the tsunami off the coast of Kamchatka Peninsula
Waves were recorded of up to 4m (13ft) in Severo-Kurilsk on the Kuril Islands where a state of emergency has been declared.
Russia’s Tass news agency reported people running out into the streets, with balconies shaking, furniture and glass broken inside homes, and cars swaying on the street. Around 2,700 people were evacuated.
Electricity cuts were also reported across the peninsula.
Several people were injured and had to seek medical assistance, according to regional health minister Oleg Melnikov.
“Unfortunately, there are some people injured during the seismic event. Some were hurt while running outside, and one patient jumped out of a window. A woman was also injured inside the new airport terminal,” he said.
Image: Severo-Kurilsk, Russia. Pic: Russian Academy of Sciences/Reuters
Image: Powerful waves engulf coastal buildings in Severo-Kurilsk. Pic: Reuters
Where else have tsunamis hit so far?
Injuries have been reported in several countries, but there are no known deaths so far.
Beyond Russia, waves have started to reach Japan, Hawaii, and the US West Coast.
Image: Tsunami waves off the coast of Japan. Pic: AP
Two million people have been evacuated along the country’s Pacific coast, with evacuation advisories in place in more than 220 municipalities, according to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency. Nuclear power plants have also paused activity.
One caused waves of 60cm (2ft) on the island of Hokkaido and another reached 50cm (1.6ft) at Ishinomaki port in the north of the country. In northern Iwate, 40cm (1.3ft) waves were registered at Kuji port.
The tsunami alert has been lowered for south of Fukushima but is still in place in the north.
Image: People evacuated to the rooftop of a fire department building in Mukawa, Hokkaido. Pic: Kyodo/AP
Image: A tsunami warning in Japan. Pic: Yomiuri Shimbun/AP
In Hawaii, people rushed to seek higher ground after waves measured 1.82m (6ft).
Earthquake sirens blared in the streets, with beaches closed and coastal areas evacuated. Maui airport was also closed, Hawaii Governor Josh Green added.
Evacuation orders were later lifted, with the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre (PTWC) saying it was safe to return to coastal areas.
In Alaska, 30cm (1ft) waves were observed in the communities of Amchitka and Adak, according to Dave Snider, tsunami warning coordinator.
Image: A hotel overlooking Waikiki Beach in Hawaii on Wednesday. Pic: Reuters
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3:08
Tsunami warning for Pacific region
Where are the other warnings in place?
In China, the country’s tsunami warning centre has issued alerts for eastern coastal areas – particularly Shanghai and Zhejiang, which was already under alert from Typhoon CoMay, due to land on Wednesday.
States along the US West Coast have issued tsunami advisories, including Oregon, Washington State, and California, where waves have already hit.
Oregon’s Department of Emergency Management cautioned: “This is not a major tsunami, but dangerous currents and strong waves may pose a risk to those near the water.”
President Donald Trump posted on X: “A Tsunami Watch is in effect for Alaska and the Pacific Coast of the United States. Japan is also in the way. Please visit tsunami.gov/ for the latest information. STAY STRONG AND STAY SAFE!”
The Mexican Navy said that tsunami waves were due to hit Mexico’s northern coast at Ensenada near California, and could progress to Chiapas.
In New Zealand, the country’s disaster management agency issued warnings for coastal areas, which are likely to see “strong and unusual currents and unpredictable surges at shore”.
There is currently no need for official evacuation orders, it added, but people are being told to stay away from the coast.
The Pacific Island nations of Fiji, Samoa, Tonga, Micronesia, and the Solomon Islands have all issued warnings, as their low-lying topography puts them at particular risk.
The Philippines had a tsunami advisory in place but cancelled it after “no significant sea level disturbances or destructive tsunami waves” were reported after 7.25am local time (12.25am UK) on Wednesday.
The five most powerful earthquakes on record
The ‘Great Chilean’ earthquake in Biobio, central Chile in 1960 is the most powerful on record, at a magnitude of 9.5. More than 1,600 people died and thousands more were injured.
An earthquake in Alaska in 1964 reached a magnitude of 9.2, triggering landslides, deadly waves, and severe flooding. Aftershocks continued for weeks and 130 people died.
The Boxing Day tsunami of 2004 happened off Sumatra, Indonesia, killing 167,000 people there and 230,000 in total across southeast and southern Asia, as well as reaching parts of east Africa.
The Japanese earthquake of 2011 triggered a tsunami that hit the Fukushima nuclear power plant, blacking out its power system and causing the meltdown of three reactors. More than 18,000 people died.
Kamchatka had another powerful earthquake in 1952, registering 9.0 in magnitude and causing a tsunami that hit Hawaii with 9m (30ft waves). Miraculously, no one died.
What happens during a tsunami – and why are they so dangerous?
Tsunamis are a series of very long waves usually caused by an earthquake beneath the ocean’s surface. Although rare, they can also be triggered by landslides, volcanic activity, and sometimes by extreme weather above the ocean.
Unlike normal waves, which are driven by wind, tsunamis move through the entire ocean column – from the sea floor to the surface.
This means they can be incredibly powerful and fast – reaching plane-like speeds of around 500mph in the deepest parts of the ocean.
Their force means they can stretch across an entire ocean basin, impacting multiple countries. The 2004 Boxing Day tsunami caused damage in 17 nations.
Tsunamis become most dangerous when they reach land. The shallowness of the water sees the length of the waves decrease – but their height increase.
Tall waves can be very dangerous. It only requires six inches of water to knock someone off their feet and double that to sweep away a car.
Tsunami waves are also dangerous when they go back out to sea, carrying heavy debris with them.
An enormous 8.8 magnitude earthquake has hit off the far east of Russia – potentially the sixth largest on record.
The quake has triggered waves of up to 4m (13ft) in the Kamchatka Peninsula, where buildings were damaged and several people injured, officials said.
It has also led to tsunami fears across the Pacific, with warnings and alerts in place across Japan, parts of the US including Hawaii, California and Alaska, and the Philippines.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) said the earthquake was shallow at a depth of 19.3km (12 miles), and was centred about 125km (80 miles) east-southeast of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, a city of 165,000 along the coast of Avacha Bay.
Image: A powerful wave washes past a building located near the shore off the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia. Pic: Reuters
Here we look at how it compares to some of the highest magnitude quakes recorded by the USGS.
Biobio, Chile (1960)
A 9.5 magnitude earthquake – known as the Valdivia earthquake or Great Chilean earthquake – struck in a central region of Chile in 1960.
It is the largest ever recorded earthquake, and resulted in more than 1,600 deaths in the country and beyond, most of which were caused by the resulting large tsunami.
Thousands of others were injured.
Alaska (1964)
A 9.2 magnitude earthquake hit Alaska’s Prince William Sound in 1964, lasting for almost five minutes and becoming the largest recorded earthquake in the US.
There were huge landslides and towering waves which caused severe flooding, and the event was followed by thousands of aftershocks for weeks.
More than 130 people were killed.
Sumatra, Indonesia
Image: An area hit by both the huge earthquake and subsequent tsunamis in Indonesia. Pic: AP
A 9.1 magnitude earthquake and subsequent tsunami devastated Southeast and South Asia and East Africa in 2004.
It was the most disastrous earthquake in terms of fatalities, killing 230,000 people, including 167,000 in Indonesia, where entire communities were wiped out.
Tohoku, Japan
Another 9.1 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of northeastern Japan in 2011, triggering a towering tsunami that smashed into the Fukushima nuclear plant.
This led to power and cooling systems being knocked out, and triggered meltdowns in three reactors.
More than 18,000 people were killed in the quake and tsunami. Some bodies have never been recovered.
Image: A tsunami engulfs a coastal region of northeastern Japan on 11 March 2011. Pic: Kyodo/AP
Kamchatka, Russia
A 9.0 magnitude quake resulted in a tsunami with 9.1m (30ft) waves hitting Hawaii in 1952, causing significant damage but no fatalities.
Biobio, Chile (2010)
Image: A man clears rubble after earthquake hits Chile on 27 February 2010. Pic: Reuters
Central Chile was hit by a 8.8 magnitude earthquake in 2010, lasting for 90 seconds and setting off a tsunami.
More than 500 people were killed in the disaster.
Esmeraldas, Ecuador
An 8.8 magnitude earthquake resulted in a tsunami that killed about 1,500 people in Ecuador in 1906.
Its effects were felt for miles along the Central American coast and as far as San Francisco and Japan.
Alaska (1965)
A magnitude 8.7 quake struck Alaska’s Rat Islands in 1965, causing an 11m (35ft) high tsunami. It only resulted in relatively minor damage, including cracks in buildings and an asphalt runway.
Tibet
At least 780 people were killed when a magnitude 8.6 earthquake struck in 1950, destroying dozens of villages, including at least one that slid into a river.
Major landslides jammed the Subansiri River in India, and a deadly 7m (23ft) wave was created when the water eventually broke through.
Sumatra, Indonesia
Image: A guard walks on the ruins of prison wall which collapsed in Indonesian city of Banda Aceh in 2012 quake. Pic: Reuters
An 8.6 magnitude earthquake struck off the west coast of northern Sumatra in Indonesia in 2012.
The quake caused little damage, but it did increase pressure on a fault that had been the source of the devastating 2004 tsunami.