A potential water war is in the making after India suspended the Indus Water Treaty.
The decision came in retaliation to terror attacks in Kashmir, which were followed by a four-day conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
Pakistan says, if not reversed, it amounts to an act of war. India’s response – blood and water cannot flow together.
What is the Indus Water Treaty?
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960 governs how the six rivers that flow through India are shared.
While India gets unrestricted use of the three eastern rivers – the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, Pakistan is allotted the lion’s share of the three western rivers – the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum.
The average annual flow of the western rivers (135.6 million acre ft) is more than four times that of the eastern ones (32.6 million acre ft).
Though India can use a fraction of the waters of the western rivers for irrigation and hydropower, it has to eventually release all the waters downstream.
Image: Salal Dam on the Chenab River in Kashmir
Surinder Thapa, former chief engineer of the Baglihar Dam, who has been associated with the Indus Water Treaty Commission over the past 20 years, told Sky News: “It’s totally a biased treaty as it was not negotiated on minute technical parameters as there is unequal share of the volume of water.
“India has suffered and is still struggling with its water projects. Some have even closed because they have become economically unviable.”
How India could respond
India demanded a modification of the treaty under Article XII in 2023, to take into consideration its changing demographics, water and energy requirements, climate change disaster mitigation, and cross-border terrorism.
The treaty has provisions for modification under certain circumstances – but there are no clauses for unilateral exit or suspension. India is taking its position as a legal decision under international law.
It cannot stop water from flowing across the border, as it lacks storage infrastructure and the capacity to divert large amounts of water.
But there are ways in which India could potentially harm its neighbour – by not sharing data on the volume of water in the rivers, withholding flow or releasing or even tampering with the volume, that could affect agriculture, power generation, consumption, and even cause floods in Pakistan.
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3:09
Explained: India-Pakistan conflict
Pakistan’s reliance on the network
More than 80% of Pakistan’s irrigated land is watered by the Indus network.
Agriculture is its backbone, employing more than half its population and contributing almost a quarter of its GDP.
It is already one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. Disruption to its rivers would have massive effects on its economy and people.
Across the border in Pakistan, farmers are worried about the uncertainty of its neighbour.
Muhammad Nawaz, a farmer from Nikaiyan Da Kot in Gujrat, Pakistan, told Sky News: “Our government must respond, we already have nothing, and if they stop giving us water, then what is left for us.”
Hassan Ullah, who lives in the village of Kot Nikka, said: “India is violating the agreements made with the government. Pakistan should take up this issue at the international level.”
Since the suspension, India has carried out flushing and desilting of its dams – helping to increase its storage and making its hydropower projects more efficient.
Mr Thapa said: “For all these years we cooperated 120% with Pakistan but they kept raising irrelevant technical questions only to delay our projects – causing huge financial losses.
“We don’t want to bleed people in Pakistan, but we are left with no option but to teach them a lesson of how much sacrifice we have made.
“We need to make huge storage dams and navigation projects with no checks by anyone anymore.”
Recent India-Pakistan conflict
The fraught relationship between the two nuclear-armed neighbours worried the world when both countries attacked each other. Dozens of people were killed and hundreds of livelihoods were destroyed on both sides of the border.
The village of Kot Maira in Akhnur district, just a couple of miles from the Pakistan border, has been one of the most targeted in the region.
Image: The village of Kot Maira, just miles away from India’s border with Pakistan
Bari Ram, 59, had a miraculous escape. He left his home with his son just a few minutes before artillery shells destroyed it, killing all his cattle.
He told Sky News: “This happened after the ceasefire, everything is destroyed. We can’t sleep as we don’t know when the next bomb will fall.”
In a hospital room in Jammu, 46-year-old Rameez is having his wounds dressed. He’s not completely out of danger as shrapnel is still embedded in his liver and ribs. He’s already lost a lot of blood and doctors don’t want to operate on him just yet.
Image: Rameez, 46
But it’s not the physical pain that traumatises him as much as the loss of his twins, 12-year-olds Zoya and Zain.
They got caught up in heavy Pakistani shelling when they tried to escape from their home.
Image: Twins Zain and Zoya, 12, who were killed during the recent conflict
Image: Rameez (left), his wife, and children
Their aunt Maria Khan told Sky News: “The bombs fell behind them while they were getting out, Zoya was hit at the back of her head, her ribs were broken and she was bleeding.
“My brother picked her up and within seconds she died in his arms. He saw a neighbour trying to resuscitate Zain, but he had already died.”
Image: Maria Khan, Zoya and Zain’s aunt
Unable to hold back tears, she added: “That’s why us who live on the border areas want only peace. We know and experience the effects of real war. Our innocent children have died. This pain is unbearable and unreplaceable.”
For the moment, the precarious ceasefirebetween the countries is holding. But for so many it has come too late.
In a stark and direct intervention, Martin Griffiths, the former UN humanitarian chief, has described the situation in Gaza as genocide.
The statement, made during an interview I conducted with Griffiths on The World, marks one of the most pointed accusations yet from a figure known to be deeply embedded in the world of international politics and diplomacy.
“I think now we’ve got to the point this is unequivocal. Of course it is genocide. Just as it is weaponising aid.
“We don’t need to look behind ourselves to see that’s the case. That should encourage us even more because we, of course, all doubted whether it would come to that level of definition.
“We all doubted whether famine is actually there. I think starvation is killing people. That’s bad enough. We don’t have to worry about famine, which is obviously there lurking in the shadows.
“Also, genocide… of course that’s what has happened. We only need to look at the statements made. Prime Minister Netanyahuhas the virtue of being very clear about his objectives.”
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Ex-Israeli aide dismisses genocide claims
His choice of words is extraordinary – not just for its gravity, but because it’s Griffiths who is saying it.
A veteran diplomat with decades of experience navigating complex international crises, Griffiths is known for his calm and thoughtful demeanour – not for inflammatory language.
For him to use the term “genocide” in a television interview signals a significant shift in how some within the international system are now interpreting events on the ground in Gaza – 20 months since Israel launched its war.
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Just weeks earlier, Tom Fletcher, another respected former British ambassador and current UN humanitarian chief, came close to using the phrase during a UN Security Council session.
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He said: “What more evidence do you need now? Will you act decisively to prevent genocide and to ensure respect for international humanitarian law? Or will you say instead: ‘we did all we could?'”
Whilst he stopped short, his tone showed a clear change in how leading international figures now view the direction of Israeli military operations in Gaza; staggering civilian deaths, and the statements made by Israeli officials prosecuting this war.
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Lawyers representing Israel against accusations brought by South Africa to the International Court of Justice last year – accusing its actions in Gaza of amounting to genocide – called the claims “unfounded”, “absurd” and amounting to “libel”.
They went on to say Israel respected international law and had a right to defend itself.
Now 41.2% of Europe finds itself in some form of drought, according to the latest update from the EU’s European Drought Observatory, which covers 11 to 20 May.
It is most acute in pockets of south-eastern Spain, Cyprus, Greece and Albania, where the strongest “alert” category has been issued, as well as parts of Poland and Ukraine.
But broad stretches of northern and eastern Europe through France, Germany, Poland and Ukraine also drying up, sowing concerns about crop yields.
On Thursday, the UK’s Environment Agency officially declared a drought in North West England after river and reservoir levels were licked away by a dry spring.
Image: More than 40% of Europe was in drought as of 11-20 May 2025. Pic: CEMS / EDO
Image: Heat was record high in March in Europe. The image on the right shows the south of the continent was much wetter than average and the north much drier. Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service
Greece tourism is ‘unsustainable’
In Greece, “overtourism” from millions flocking to its beaches adds further pressure to water supplies, said Nikitas Mylopoulos, professor of water resource management at Thessaly University.
“The tourist sector is unsustainable and there is no planning… leading to a tremendous rise in water demand in summer,” he told Sky News.
“The islands have an intense problem of drought and water scarcity.”
Islands like Santorini and Mykonos are now forced to ship in water from Athens or desalination plants to provide for showers and swimming pools. In the past, many residents could make do with local methods like rainwater harvesting.
But agriculture is a far bigger drain on the country’s water, with waste rife and policies lacking, said Prof Mylopoulos.
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1:55
‘Tropical nights’ soar in European hotspots
Wildfire season could be ‘particularly difficult’
This year’s hot and dry conditions are also fuelling the risk of yet another fierce wildfire season in Greece.
Last week civil protection minister Ioannis Kefalogiannis warned of a “particularly difficult” summer.
He said a record 18,000 firefighters have been deployed and the drone fleet almost doubled in a bid to combat fires being fuelled by a hotter climate.
Droughts and their causes are more complicated, but scientists at World Weather Attribution say global warming is exacerbating drought in some parts of the world, including around the Mediterranean.
Image: A drought was declared in northwest England on Thursday. Pic: Reuters
The International Hydropower Association said drought and intense rain in Europe are pushing power plants to “operate at the limits of their existing equipment”.
Extreme weather costs the EU about €28.3bn (£23.8bn) in lost crops and livestock per year, according to insurance firm Howden.
Hayley Fowler, professor of climate change impacts at Newcastle University, said: “With global warming, we expect more prolonged and intense droughts and heatwaves punctuated by more intense rainfall, possibly causing flash floods.
“In recent years, we have experienced more of these atmospheric blocks, causing record heat and persistent drought, as well as severe flooding in other locations in Europe.
“Recent months have been no different, with prolonged dry conditions and heatwaves in northern Europe and floods in southern Europe.”
At least 117 people have died and others are still missing after heavy flooding in Nigeria, an emergency official said.
Authorities initially said 21 people had died but this figure has today risen significantly.
Media reports quoting local government officials said a dam collapse has worsened the situation.
Ibrahim Hussaini, head of Niger State Emergency Management Agency, said some 3,000 houses were underwater in two communities.
Videos posted on social media show floodwater sweeping through neighbourhoods, with rooftops barely visible above the brown currents. One clip shows a tanker floating through a town.
Image: A tanker is swept away by floodwaters
The chairman of the Mokwa local government area suggested poor infrastructure has worsened the impact of the flooding.
Jibril Muregi has appealed to the government to start “long overdue” construction of waterways in the area under a climate resilience project.
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Image: Water appears to be flowing over a dam behind the town
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In a similar occurrence last September, torrential rains and a dam collapse in Nigeria’s northeastern Maiduguri caused severe flooding, leaving at least 30 people dead and displacing millions.
Nigeriais prone to flooding during the rainy season, which began in April – and flooding is becoming more common and extreme as the climate warms.
Hotter air is thirstier and can hold more moisture – about 7% more for every 1C warmer – meaning it unleashes heavier flooding when it rains.
Violent rain, which killed hundreds of people in Nigeria during 2022, was made at least 80 times more likely and 20% more intense by climate change, analysis by World Weather Attribution found.