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“There’s a lot of people talking about Group of 5, Power 4, the money and the resources and NIL. It’s about the players and it’s about lining up and banging heads and [may] the best man win. You saw that [Saturday].” — Northern Illinois athletic director Sean Frazier, after the Huskies’ 2024 upset of Notre Dame.

The MAC is proof that a big tent can produce occasionally incredible things. As college football keeps trending toward closing up shop and distributing more money to fewer schools, and as the idea of a so-called “super league” — one that would either limit or completely eliminate opportunities for MAC-level schools — continues to waft around, this league and its teams keep trying to find ways to make noise. NIU’s big moment in 2024 proved that, given enough opportunities, they can still do so. In the past 25 seasons, MAC teams have scored 78 wins over power-conference teams, and while nearly half of those have come from NIU (14), Bowling Green (12) and Toledo (11), 14 current and former MAC programs have posted at least one.

Current circumstances are making things awfully difficult, though. The bottom half of the MAC has always been pretty shaky, and 2024 was no exception: MAC teams occupied four of the bottom 15 slots in the year-end SP+ rankings, which also ranked 0-12 Kent State as the worst FBS team in four years. Then came a brutal offseason in which (A) NIU arranged to leave for the Mountain West in 2026, (B) MAC teams got hit harder than anyone else by the transfer portal and general attrition (the MAC’s 41.1% returning production average was more than 12 percentage points below the national average), (C) the reigning conference champion (Ohio) lost head coach Tim Albin to a Charlotte program that has had just one winning season ever in FBS, and (D) Bowling Green head coach Scot Loeffler left for an NFL position coach job in the spring.

In a college football universe with NIL money and unrestricted transfers, continuity is growing increasingly difficult in MACtion country. But the conference still boasts some proven coaches and high-level talent, and stars will inevitably emerge. Let’s preview the MAC!

Throughout the summer, Bill Connelly will preview every FBS conference, ultimately including all 136 FBS teams. The previews will include 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules.

2024 recap

NIU stole the early headlines, but injuries and offensive struggles rendered Thomas Hammock’s Huskies an afterthought in the conference race. By midseason, it became increasingly clear that Ohio and Miami (Ohio) were the MAC’s safest bets. Miami beat Ohio 30-20 in the regular season, but the Bobcats’ offense ignited from there, averaging 36.7 points during a season-ending seven-game winning streak that included a 38-3 throttling of Miami in the MAC championship game.


Continuity table

The continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2024 FBS starts from both returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very difficult to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.

From Miami corner Raion Strader (Auburn) to Bowling Green running back Terion Stewart (Virginia Tech) to NIU quarterback Ethan Hampton (Illinois) to Ball State tight end Tanner Koziol (Houston) to a number of high-level Ohio defenders, MAC teams lost numerous stars to power-conference schools. In all, eight MAC teams (including four with new head coaches) rank in the bottom 18 in returning production.

Toledo and Buffalo mostly avoided the same fate, however. The Rockets and Bulls both rank in the top 50 in returning production, and during an intriguing nine-win season in which his Bulls improved from 119th to 87th in SP+, second-year Buffalo head coach Pete Lembo was able to build a solid base of redshirt freshmen as well.

Despite losing Albin, Ohio attempted continuity by promoting offensive coordinator Brian Smith to head coach, and he was able to hold on to at least a few key pieces, including quarterback Parker Navarro, left tackle Davion Weatherspoon and safety DJ Walker. SP+ suggests that might be enough to keep the Bobcats in MAC contention.


2025 projections

Only four teams start out with top-100 projections, and they make sense: They’re the two who played in the title game last year (Ohio and Miami) and the two who return the most from 2024 bowl teams (Toledo and Buffalo). The odds of at least one of those teams clicking and playing at a top-50 or top-60 level are pretty good.

The odds are also pretty good that the bottom portion of the conference is going to be awfully poor. UMass returns to the MAC with a new coach (former Rutgers assistant Joe Harasymiak) and almost no expectations, and four of the bottom five slots in the recent SP+ projections went to MAC teams.

(* Akron is ineligible for the postseason due to APR issues.)

The aforementioned four top-100 teams have a combined 65% chance of winning the conference title. But I guess that means there’s still a greater than one-in-three chance of an underdog run, huh?


Five best games of 2025

Here are the five conference games that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin of less than 10 points.

Oct. 11: Toledo at Bowling Green. Most of the MAC’s biggest games take place once the conference shifts to midweek MACtion games in November, but this will be an early tone-setter between a talented Toledo team with a navigable early schedule and a BGSU team with quite a few question marks and an intriguing new head coach in Eddie George.

Nov. 4: Miami (Ohio) at Ohio. Last year’s two best teams jockey for position. Miami is a projected favorite in the five games preceding this one.

Nov. 12: Toledo at Miami (Ohio). Two MACtion weeks, two huge games for Chuck Martin’s RedHawks.

Nov. 19: Miami (Ohio) at Buffalo. Make that three huge games in three weeks for Miami.

Nov. 28: Ohio at Buffalo. Buffalo’s schedule offers up a massive opportunity: After the season opener against Minnesota, Lembo’s Bulls are projected favorites in 10 straight games before Ohio visits over Thanksgiving weekend.


Conference title (and, technically, CFP) contenders

Toledo Rockets

Head coach: Jason Candle (10th year, 73-40 overall)

2025 projection: 72nd in SP+ (77th offense, 63rd defense), 8.8 average wins, 6.4 conference wins

It feels impossible to adequately evaluate Jason Candle. On one hand, despite running the program with more consistent investment and high-quality recruiting than any conference mate, he’s won only two MAC titles in 10 years. It’s always going to feel like the title rate should be higher than that for the Rockets.

On the other hand, Candle’s Rockets have won 11 games twice and have taken down Arkansas, Iowa State, BYU, Mississippi State and Pitt (the last two were both in 2024). His next win will be his 74th at UT, passing Gary Pinkel’s total for the most in school history. He fielded some awesome offenses early in his tenure, and when the Toledo defense crumbled a few years ago, he made a fantastic defensive coordinator hire (Vince Kehres) to right the ship. He’s never finished with a losing record. Basically, he’s been good enough to keep his job but not quite good enough to get hired away by power-conference programs. And with solid continuity (especially at QB and in a very good secondary), it sure feels like he’ll have a chance at a third MAC title this season. After a season-opening visit to Kentucky, the Rockets are projected favorites in every remaining game.

Beating Mississippi State (by 24!) and Pitt but losing to Akron, among others, certainly suggests things went sideways for a bit last year. The main reason was an offense that slipped to 88th in offensive SP+, the worst ranking of the Candle era. The Rockets scored 15 or fewer in four MAC games, losing all four, and the run game was the primary culprit: The Rockets were just 124th in rushing success rate. The line was leaning on youngsters, and the RBs didn’t break nearly enough tackles.

Candle didn’t make any major staff changes but brought in four offensive line transfers, plus running backs Chip Trayanum (Kentucky) and Kenji Christian (NC A&T), to shore things up. If those moves work, the passing game, featuring veteran quarterback Tucker Gleason, last year’s leading receiver Junior Vandeross III and NIU transfer Trayvon Rudolph — and, perhaps, sophomore and former star recruit Zy’marion Lang — could be the primary beneficiary.

There are fewer questions on defense, where Kehres’ unit has averaged a 55.0 defensive SP+ ranking over the last three seasons. Granted, every starter in the front six is gone, but end Malachi Davis and tackle Martez Poynter are sturdy veterans, and the portal brought players like end Louce Julien (6.5 TFLs at UMass) and linebacker Hudson Miller (five starts at Purdue). The secondary was the strength of the UT defense last year, and five of last year’s top seven return, including a dynamite nickel back in Braden Awls. Sophomore transfers Amare Snowden and Braedyn Moore, both former blue-chippers from Wisconsin, could contribute quickly too.

Ohio Bobcats

Head coach: Brian Smith (first year)

2025 projection: 80th in SP+ (83rd offense, 79th defense), 7.4 average wins, 5.7 conference wins

Ohio won 10 games under Tim Albin in both 2022 and 2023 but lost an incredible 10 starters, led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke (Indiana) and all-conference tackle Kurt Danneker (Baylor), to power-conference transfers. It was an absolute bounty of talent walking out the door. And then the Bobcats won 11 games and a MAC title in 2024. It was easily one of the best coaching performances of the season. But instead of attempting to pull off a similar magic act in 2025, Albin left for a new project at Charlotte, and OC Brian Smith moved up to the bigger office.

In quarterback Parker Navarro (2,423 passing yards, 1,143 non-sack rushing yards in 2024), left tackle Davion Weatherspoon, safety DJ Walker and corner Tank Pearson, plus returning running back Sieh Bangura (who transferred to Minnesota in 2024 but returned), Smith kept some proven pieces in Athens, and by MAC standards, continuity levels aren’t too bad. But the concept of the double-dip is still a scary one. They still must replace their leading receiver, at least three starting offensive linemen, at least four rotation linemen and basically every linebacker for the second straight season. Even if you survive major turnover once, having to do so year after year — and while changing head coaches, no less — certainly brings about more opportunities for regression.

Bangura’s return is a welcome one; he and Navarro form one of the most proven MAC backfields, but they’ll have an awfully new line in front of them. Those responsible for only 20 of last year’s 70 OL starts are back, and four transfers, including small-school starters Nick Marinaro (Dartmouth) and Josh Waite (Shippensburg), might have to make immediate contributions. Leading receiver Coleman Owen is gone too, potentially leaving a big-play void.

Smith wisely held on to defensive coordinator John Hauser, whose first Bobcat defense kept opponents both inefficient and nonexplosive in 2024.

Like Toledo, Ohio boasts far more proven entities in the back than in the front. The combination of Walker, Pearson, nickel Adonis Williams, transfers Rickey Hyatt Jr. (South Alabama) and Ronald Jackson Jr. (Montana) and perhaps a youngster like sophomore Tony Mathis should keep quarterbacks frustrated. But senior tackle Bralen Henderson will see lots of new rotation pieces around him. Senior ends Kaci Seegars and Walter Bob Jr. should be solid up front, but depth is an obvious concern. No returning or incoming linebacker logged more than 17 snaps in 2024.


Buffalo Bulls

Head coach: Pete Lembo (second year, 9-4 overall)

2025 projection: 91st in SP+ (104th offense, 78th defense), 7.7 average wins, 5.5 conference wins

Ohio’s optimistic projection is based quite a bit on the Bobcats’ strong recent history. Buffalo, however, seems to have quite a bit more in the “proven entities” department. Pete Lembo was Ball State’s head coach from 2011-15 and engineered as many bowl trips (two) as the program has seen in the nine years since his departure. He engineered immediate improvement in his return to MAC life too, and now leading rusher Al-Jay Henderson, leading receiver Victor Snow, three starting O-linemen and 12 of 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps all return. The large load of redshirts should assure solid depth.

The defense didn’t grade out any better than the offense last year, but it seems to have fewer question marks in 2025. End Kobe Stewart and linebackers Red Murdock and Dion Crawford combined for 42.5 tackles for loss, 37 run stops and 20 sacks last season — no one else in this conference boasts that kind of play-making star power. The return of 300-pound senior George Wolo (injured in 2024) should assure the requisite size up front. The secondary gave up too many big plays last season (especially considering the quality of the pass rush), but returning seven of last year’s top eight DBs and adding both a young power-conference transfer (Arizona State corner Keontez Bradley) and a small-school star (Shepherd safety Miles Greer) offers more options.

The offense has a bit more to prove, but size should help: From a pure height-and-weight standpoint, the depth chart should look like something from a power conference. Henderson measures in at 6-foot-0, 210 pounds, wideouts Nik McMillan (6-1, 224) and Chance Morrow (6-6, 195) could play big roles, and two potential all-MAC guards, Trevor Brock and Tyler Doty, average 6-6 and 325 pounds between them. Snow, a former walk-on, is a little guy in the slot (5-8, 165), but he proved steady and durable in 2024, catching at least four passes in nine games.

Note that I haven’t said a word about the quarterback position yet. With C.J. Ogbonna gone, offensive coordinator Dave Patenaude will likely be choosing between 2024 backup Gunnar Gray and, more likely, journeyman Ta’Quan Roberson. Roberson has thrown for 2,188 career yards and was decent at UConn (one of his three former schools) in 2023. He should be able to lean on a solid run game, but Ogbonna was capable of big plays here and there, and Roberson has averaged just 10.3 yards per completion in his career. MAC contention will probably require more than that.


A couple of breaks away from a run

Miami (Ohio) RedHawks

Head coach: Chuck Martin (12th year, 65-67 overall)

2025 projection: 96th in SP+ (135th offense, 35th defense), 6.5 average wins, 4.7 conference wins

Chuck Martin was designed in a lab to frustrate me. He eschews analytics as it pertains to fourth downs. (The RedHawks went for it just 11 times in 101 fourth-down opportunities, a 10.9% go rate that ranked 133rd in FBS.) He is all-in on the “play not to lose” game management approach, and it’s contributed to a 22-31 career record in one-score finishes since he began at Miami in 2014. He’s old-school in a lot of unhelpful ways.

He’s also one hell of a program builder. He took over when Miami was at a particularly low ebb, and he has built things brick by brick.

Miami, 2014-15: 5-19 record, 120.0 average SP+ ranking

Miami, 2016-22: 40-40 record, 93.9 average SP+ ranking

Miami, 2023-24: 20-8 record, 63.5 average SP+ ranking

Martin and his remarkably consistent staff — in 11 years, he’s had two offensive coordinators and three defensive coordinators — identify and develop talent well, play physical and reasonably uncomplicated ball, put major focus on special teams and create the highest floor of any MAC team.

We’re going to find out a lot about the stability of said floor in 2025. At this point I trust Martin to continue to produce solid two-deeps with athleticism that exceeds their recruiting rankings. But … damn, did the RedHawks lose a lot this offseason: Every primary offensive starter is gone, as are basically 5.5 of the starters in the defensive front six. The secondary remains mostly intact, but ace cornerback Raion Strader left for Auburn.

Martin inked only three defensive transfers — a solid show of faith in last year’s backups and potential stars like edge rusher Adam Trick and safety Silas Walters. But the offense underwent a portal overhaul: quarterback Dequan Finn (Toledo/Baylor), five receivers (including former Notre Dame blue-chipper Deion Colzie), two tight ends and three offensive linemen came aboard. Finn, running backs Kenny Tracy (injured in 2024) and Jordan Brunson should form the base of a strong run game if the offensive line holds up, and the defense gets the benefit of the doubt. But losing this much production is almost a guarantee of regression. We’ll see if Martin’s program-building prowess can prevent a collapse.

Northern Illinois Huskies

Head coach: Thomas Hammock (seventh year, 32-38 overall)

2025 projection: 106th in SP+ (133rd offense, 61st defense), 6.3 average wins, 4.5 conference wins

Like many evaluation-and-development guys, Thomas Hammock was relatively slow to embrace portal life. NIU’s head coach brought in just 15 total transfers from 2022-24, but he’s grabbed 13 this offseason. He needed reinforcements just about everywhere he looked. The Huskies’ classic upset of Notre Dame drove an eight-win season — NIU’s third winning year in four — but Hammock’s Huskies lost their starting quarterback, their top two running backs, their top four pass catchers, five of their top six offensive linemen, and 11 of 16 defenders with at least 200 snaps (including the top four defensive tackles). Defensive coordinator Nick Benedetto left for Fresno State, too.

For a wobbly offense, this turnover could be seen as an opportunity for renewal. NIU ranked 115th in offensive SP+ for each of the last two seasons; the run game was decent last season, but the Huskies ranked 103rd in yards per dropback with no discernible explosiveness in the passing game. Hammock made an inspired coordinator hire, bringing in Quinn Sanders, the University of Charleston head coach who oversaw the No. 1 offense in Division II (per SP+). Charleston combined a relentless run game with over-the-top passing; one could see how that might be appealing to the physicality-minded Hammock.

Hammock brought in quarterback Jackson Proctor, a decent dual-threat from Dartmouth, but QB appears to be Josh Holst‘s job to lose. The sophomore was strong in the Huskies’ 28-20 bowl win over Fresno State, and sophomore RB Telly Johnson Jr. became the go-to back late in the season. That’s a good starting point, but only one returning receiver gained more than 60 receiving yards, and the line will be loaded with sophomores and juniors. It’ll be big, though: Hammock has established a nice pipeline of guys listed at 6-foot-4 or taller and 300 pounds or heavier.

It’s harder to make light of the defensive turnover. NIU has averaged a top-40 defensive SP+ ranking over the last two seasons but basically returns 2.5 starters on that side of the ball. Defensive end Roy Williams and corner Jacob Finley are solid starting points on the perimeter, but new coordinator Rob Harley might need smaller-school transfers like tackle Dasean Dixon (Albany) and safety Jasper Beeler (Saginaw Valley State) to thrive quickly. Otherwise the two-deep will be loaded with freshmen and sophomores.

Bowling Green Falcons

Head coach: Eddie George (first year)

2025 projection: 111th in SP+ (98th offense, 121st defense), 5.3 average wins, 4.0 conference wins

Scot Loeffler was starting to get somewhere. After going just 7-22 in his first three seasons at BGSU, he hovered around .500 each year from 2022 to 2024, but the underlying numbers (122nd in SP+ in 2022, 94th in 2023, 77th in 2024) suggested excellent progress. In 2024, the Falcons had their best offense in nine years and their best defense in 11. But Loeffler left to become the Philadelphia Eagles’ QBs coach in late February — an understandable but extremely inconvenient move.

BGSU made an intriguing replacement hire, however, in Eddie George, the Ohio State legend and, more recently, author of a nice revival at Tennessee State. After going 15-18 in his first three seasons at TSU, his Tigers jumped to 9-4 with a first FCS playoff bid last fall. He brought both TSU coordinators with him (OC Travis Partridge, DC Brandon Fisher), and after Loeffler had already added 15 transfers in the winter, George signed another 10.

Translation: This is going to be a new team. BGSU’s 59 returning starts are the third lowest in a turnover-heavy conference, and 47 of those starts are from one unit (OL). The defense returns basically 0.5 starters (safety Darius Lorfils, who started six games).

I’m really intrigued by some of the defensive newcomers, though. Defensive tackle Eriq George (son of the coach) had 12.5 TFLs for TSU, and linebacker Gideon Lampron had 26.5 TFLs at Dayton. Corners Mark Cannon Jr. (Illinois State) and Jalen McClendon (TSU) combined for four picks and 32 pass breakups. Throw in some youngsters with strong recruiting rankings — defensive lineman Collins Acheampong (UCLA), linebacker Andrew Hines (Wake Forest), safety Jay’Quan Bostic (Toledo), corner Key’on Washington (West Virginia) — and George might have something here.

The offense might not have quite as much upside, but experience could produce a high floor. The line indeed returns four starters, all seniors, and veterans Drew Pyne (Mizzou) and Justin Lamson (Stanford) will compete at QB. The skill corps, however, is a total mystery. Tight end Arlis Boardingham (Florida) is athletic, and receivers Brennan Ridley (Hampton) and Allen Middleton (Southern Illinois) combined for 1,018 receiving yards as FCS freshmen, but it’s hard to determine who might see a ton of the ball in 2025.

Central Michigan Chippewas

Head coach: Matt Drinkall (first year)

2025 projection: 117th in SP+ (127th offense, 102nd defense), 5.3 average wins, 4.0 conference wins

Matt Drinkall inherits personnel from a team that won only 13 games in its last three years under Jim McElwain, and he might institute a pretty big stylistic shift with unproven offensive personnel. This doesn’t feel like the start of an “a couple of breaks away from a run” tale. But a friendly schedule and actual defensive continuity — a rare commodity in this conference — might make the Chippewas improvement candidates.

Drinkall brings NAIA success to the table — he improved Kansas Wesleyan from 2-9 to 13-1 with a playoff semifinal run over five years in Salina — and he was asked by Jeff Monken to modernize Army’s option attack following rule changes in 2023. The changes didn’t really take, and he was demoted to Army O-line coach in 2024, but the Iowa grad still has Midwestern ties and an interesting offensive background.

We probably won’t see much of an option attack with incumbent Joe Labas the likely starting QB. Labas started half of 2024 before a season-ending injury; his full-season numbers (seven TDs, seven INTs) were colored by a horrid, five-INT performance against Florida International, but he wasn’t much of a runner regardless. The return of slot man Tyson Davis (injured in 2023) assures at least one experienced wideout, but no other returnee had more than 66 receiving yards in 2024, and Tulane transfer Trey Cornist is officially the most proven running back … with 149 rushing yards last year. Drinkall is an O-line guy, and CMU should have good size up front, plus maybe some help from FCS transfers John Iannuzzi (Columbia) and Jacob Russell (Valpo).

Veteran Sean Cronin, most recently Army’s D-line coach, takes over as defensive coordinator, and his No. 1 task is bringing stability to a dramatically all-or-nothing unit: CMU ranked 11th nationally in stuff rate and 13th in sack rate but gave up a spectacular number of big plays. Linebackers Jordan Kwiatkowski and Dakota Cochran (combined: 23.5 TFLs) are thrilling, and safety Caleb Spann thrives near the line of scrimmage. They are undeniable playmakers, and cornerback Kalen Carroll (Cincinnati) is one of the conference’s few incoming power-conference starters. But glitches were devastating in 2024, and Cronin will likely dial the risk profile back a bit.

Eastern Michigan Eagles

Head coach: Chris Creighton (12th year, 57-75 overall)

2025 projection: 113th in SP+ (116th offense, 111th defense), 5.1 average wins, 3.5 conference wins

Chris Creighton has been pulling off .500ish seasons at EMU for long enough that we’re forgetting how impressive going .500 at EMU really is. The Eagles won five games just three times in the 24 seasons before Creighton’s arrival from Drake in 2014, and now they’ve bowled six times in the past nine years. Collapsing from 5-2 to 5-7 last year, thanks to both epic injury issues and close defeats, was a genuine disappointment instead of a roundabout accomplishment.

With so many MAC programs dealing with major turnover, this would feel like an opportunity for Creighton and EMU … if they weren’t dealing with the same thing. The Eagles return only four players who started more than five games last season, though the injuries meant that quite a few of the returnees saw the field. That’s especially true on defense, where 11 returnees started at least once. Still, Creighton brought in seven defensive transfers (plus four JUCOs) to assure a rebound for a unit that collapsed from 67th to 115th in defensive SP+. New playmakers need to emerge, but defensive end Jefferson Adam made 5.5 TFLs in just 185 snaps, and nickel back Barry Manning had three run stops and two pass breakups in 193 snaps; both could become stars with starter-level playing time.

The offense collapsed to 130th in offensive SP+ in 2023 but rebounded a bit last year despite 18 guys starting at least one game. Only six of those 18 return, but I’m intrigued by newcomers like quarterback Cameron Edge (Maryland) and running back James Jointer Jr. (Liberty), and receiver Terry Lockett Jr. is one of the league’s more explosive returning wideouts. The bar for further improvement is pretty low — just keep guys semi-healthy, and you could return to the top 100.

Since Creighton’s arrival, only NIU has played in more one-score games among MAC teams than EMU — almost surprising considering EMU’s fast-paced offense and fourth-down willingness — and that dynamic probably won’t change in 2025: Ten of the Eagles’ 12 games are projected within single digits, and six of the last eight are projected within a touchdown. Win the close ones they didn’t win last year, and 2025 will be pretty exciting.


Just looking for a path to 6-6

Western Michigan Broncos

Head coach: Lance Taylor (third year, 10-15 overall)

2025 projection: 118th in SP+ (112th offense, 117th defense), 4.8 average wins, 3.5 conference wins

After back-to-back losing seasons for a seemingly stalling WMU program, 2024 brought some positivity: Thanks primarily to a 5-1 record against teams ranked in the triple digits in SP+, Lance Taylor’s Broncos eked out six wins and a bowl bid.

In terms of balancing efficiency and explosiveness, the WMU offense was one of the more well-rounded in the conference.

Walt Bell’s offense is predicated around strong rushing and quick passing; it’s an obvious concern that only 2.5 starters return (tight end Blake Bosma, guard John Hofer and receiver and seven-game starter Malique Dieudonne), but junior running back Jalen Buckley (683 yards, nine TDs) is good, Bosma (88% catch rate) is an efficiency cheat code, and Taylor brought in intriguing power-conference transfers such as running back Cole Cabana (Michigan), receiver Christian Leary (Alabama/Georgia Tech) and linemen Raheem Anderson (Michigan) and Hunter Whitenack (Illinois). Quarterback Hayden Wolff is gone, but I think either sophomore Broc Lowry or JC All-American Brady Jones will fill in pretty well there.

The defense hasn’t yet generated any traction under Taylor, who is on his third coordinator in three years. New DC Chris O’Leary was a Notre Dame analyst and, in 2024, the safeties coach for Jim Harbaugh’s L.A. Chargers. This feels like a high-ceiling, low-floor hire, and O’Leary’s success in 2025 will be derived primarily from a number of smaller-school transfers, the most intriguing of which are probably defensive end Kershawn Fisher (Nicholls), linebacker Sefa Saipaia (Ferris State), corner Jordon Thomas (Eastern Kentucky) and safety Marvin Smith (Alabama A&M). Returning safety Tate Hallock is a keeper, but newcomers will tell the tale.

Akron Zips

Head coach: Joe Moorhead (fourth year, 8-28 overall)

2025 projection: 132nd in SP+ (131st offense, 120th defense), 4.5 average wins, 3.2 conference wins

In three years at Akron, Joe Moorhead has proved to be a pretty solid talent evaluator, and going 4-8 in 2024 — after the Zips went a combined 7-47 from 2019-23 — was an undeniable success. But hard jobs remain hard in perpetuity; Moorhead hasn’t made any progress on offense (average offensive SP+ ranking: 126.7), the Zips’ APR scores have dropped enough to get them banned from the postseason (not that six wins was particularly likely anyway), and Moorhead’s primary reward for solid talent identification is that said talent has been plucked away: Seven Zips transferred to power-conference teams this offseason.

It’s kind of a lost year already, in other words. But in Michael Johnson Jr. (Syracuse), running back Chris Gee (Colgate), O-lineman Allen Jones Jr. (West Alabama), prolific linebacker Cam Hollobaugh (Walsh), safety Mehki Flowers (Penn State) and others, Moorhead’s 2025 transfer haul has decent upside. So, too, might returnees like veteran quarterback Ben Finley, 6-foot-7 defensive end Bruno Dall, linebacker Shammond Cooper (injured in 2023) and junior corner Elijah Reed.

Akron is a projected favorite in only three games but is a projected one-score underdog in five others — overachieving against projections just a little could make this a decent season, even if bowling is already off the table.

Ball State Cardinals

Head coach: Mike Uremovich (first year)

2025 projection: 134th in SP+ (123rd offense, 131st defense), 3.4 average wins, 2.5 conference wins

After the slow rise and equally slow fall of the eight-year Mike Neu era, Mike Uremovich takes the reins at BSU. The NIU grad and former Temple and NIU offensive coordinator knows the MAC and has crafted success from limited Midwestern resources at both NAIA’s St. Francis (Illinois) and FCS’ Butler. His 2024 Butler team ranked 35th in SP+, easily the highest in the non-scholarship Pioneer Conference.

Uremovich’s offense is generally built around adapting to player strengths, and the primary strength of his 2025 Cardinals might be versatility. Senior quarterback Kiael Kelly is a better athlete than passer, and running back transfer Qua Ashley (Kennesaw State) caught 28 balls out of the backfield last year. Throw in slot man (and punt returner) Qian Magwood and 5-foot-8 Bucknell WR transfer Eric Weatherly, and you’ve got a set of bouncy and versatile, if not particularly large, skill-corps guys. They could also have the largest pair of tackles in the MAC with returnee Chris Hood (6-foot-10!) potentially pairing with Butler transfer Adam Dolan (6-foot-8), for whatever that’s worth.

Despite BSU’s defensive collapse, Uremovich kept coordinator Jeff Knowles in place, and with good reason: He was Uremovich’s DC at Butler in 2023. The defensive front returns disruptive options in linebacker Joey Stemler and tackle Darin Conley, but a poor secondary has been overhauled. Uremovich brought in 10 defensive transfers, but only three are seniors — this might be a multiyear rebuild on D.

UMass Minutemen

Head coach: Joe Harasymiak (first year)

2025 projection: 13th in SP+ (119th offense, 135th defense), 3.5 average wins, 2.2 conference wins

It’s been a pretty directionless FBS run for UMass. The Minutemen spent their first four FBS seasons in the MAC before choosing independence over all-sports membership, but after nine years and just 18 wins, they’re back. At head coach, they’ve tried veteran retreads (Mark Whipple, Don Brown) and young hotshots (Walt Bell), and nothing has generated traction. Now it’s time to go Full Rutgers. Massachusetts native Joe Harasymiak takes over after three years as Greg Schiano’s defensive coordinator at RU. Schiano is the ultimate, obsessive “skip no steps” program builder, and one can see the appeal to such an approach at UMass.

Harasymiak brought in 34 transfers, but while a few of them are seniors who could contribute quickly — quarterback Grant Jordan (Yale), offensive lineman Mike Entwistle (Harvard), defensive end Josh Nobles (Jackson State), linebacker Timmy Hinspeter (Rutgers), safety Malcolm Greene (Virginia) — some of the more intriguing players on the roster are underclassmen.

Redshirt freshman quarterback AJ Hairston could fend off both Jordan and Utah transfer Brandon Rose for playing time at QB, while transfers like running back Rocko Griffin (UTSA), receiver Tyree Kelly (USF), tackle Malachi Madison (Virginia Tech), linebacker Nick Hawthorne (Boise State) and disruptive safeties Kendall Bournes (Concord) and Zeraun Daniel (Georgetown) are all juniors or younger.

This is going to take some time. UMass is a projected favorite in only one 2025 game, but hey, when you’ve averaged only two wins per season in FBS, the bar for progress is awfully low.

Kent State Golden Flashes

Interim head coach: Mark Carney

2025 projection: 136th in SP+ (134th offense, 133rd defense), 2.8 average wins, 2.2 conference wins

If the bar is low at UMass, it’s just laying on the floor at Kent State. Under head coach Kenni Burns, the Golden Flashes went just 1-23 in two seasons, but it’s actually even worse than that: In my year-end, all-division SP+ rankings, they not only ranked a distant last among the 134 FBS teams, they ranked 227th overall, behind 79 FCS teams and 14 Division II teams. They would have been well below average in the FCS’ Missouri Valley Football Conference. Hell, they’d have been fourth in D2’s GLIAC. This was an utterly atrocious football team.

That just means there’s nowhere to go but up, right? Even with Burns getting dismissed at just about the most awkward possible time of year (mid-April) and offensive coordinator Mark Carney taking over as interim head coach, it’s going to be almost impossible to be that bad again.

I’m not going to try to sell you on the merits of transfers like quarterback CJ Montes (Fordham), offensive lineman Jamarcus Hill (Southeast Missouri), defensive end Jamond Mathis (Southern Illinois) and defensive tackle Thomas Aden (Pitt) or genuinely decent returnees like guard Dustyn Morell or nickelback Canaan Williams. I’m just going to note that, with so many other MAC teams facing major turnover, Kent State could be close enough to the rest of the pack to win a game or two. And when the bar is set at “midtier GLIAC team,” it’s pretty easy to maybe show a sign or two of progress.

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MLB trade deadline updates, rumors: Countdown to biggest deals is on

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MLB trade deadline updates, rumors: Countdown to biggest deals is on

The 2025 MLB trade deadline is almost here, with contending teams deciding what they need to add before 6 p.m. ET on Thursday.

The Seattle Mariners got things going just ahead of deadline day with a late-night deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks for Eugenio Suarez — will Zac Gallen be next to leave the Snakes? Relievers began flying off the board Wednesday, to the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. As the deadline approaches, who among the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers will go all-in to boost their 2025 World Series hopes?

Whether your favorite club is looking to add or deal away — or stands somewhere in between — here’s the freshest intel we’re hearing, reaction to completed deals and what to know for every team as trade season unfolds.

More: Top 50 trade candidates | Trade grades | Fantasy spin | Traded prospects

Jump to: Latest intel | Completed deals | Previous intel

Latest MLB trade deadline buzz

July 30

Angels switching to add mode: Small sample size can matter this time of year: The Los Angeles Angels had prepped for the possibility of trading away players (Taylor Ward, etc.), but after their win Tuesday night, they moved into add mode. They could still deal one or two players — notably closer Kenley Jansen — but the Angels want to make a push. — Buster Olney


A couple of Twins could be on the move soon: The market is picking up for Minnesota Twins closer Jhoan Duran, with many throughout the industry expecting him to be moved at some point Wednesday.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been heavily involved. But the Seattle Mariners are still looking for ways to aggressively augment their roster (even after trading for lefty reliever Caleb Ferguson), either by adding another late-game option such as Duran, upgrading at third base or both. The New York Yankees also are expected to be in the mix, as are the Los Angeles Dodgers, though it seems as if the reigning World Series champions prefer Minnesota teammate Griffin Jax over Duran at this point.

The Twins theoretically could pair Duran with super-utility man Willi Castro, who also is expected to be moved Wednesday. — Alden Gonzalez


Where Astros, Twins Correa talks stand: While the Houston Astros have interest in Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa and there has been dialogue on a potential trade, the sides are far apart at the moment and no deal is close, sources tell ESPN. — Jeff Passan


Why Mets, Mariners are among teams to watch: As deadline day nears, Seattle and New York are two contenders with the potential to go big before 6 p.m. Thursday arrives. Read more: Buster Olney and Jeff Passan’s latest trade deadline intel


July 29

AL East leaders linked to Kwan, but pitching’s the priority: The first-place Toronto Blue Jays have recently been linked to Cleveland Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan, who seems more likely to be traded in the wake of Emmanuel Clase‘s sudden absence — but Toronto’s priority remains pitching, sources with knowledge of the team’s thinking said.

The Blue Jays could use a top-end starter to complement a rotation fronted by Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman, with controllable arms such as Edward Cabrera and Mitch Keller making the most sense. But Toronto would also like to upgrade its bullpen — a unit that has lost Yimi Garcia, Paxton Schultz and Nick Sandlin to the injured list in recent weeks.

The Blue Jays entered this season with baseball’s 24th-ranked farm system, according to ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. It would be difficult to envision them filling needs at the top of their rotation and in the back of their bullpen, while also adding an impact bat. The team might ultimately lean on the boost it should receive from Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho, Andres Gimenez and, it hopes, Anthony Santander returning from injury. — Alden Gonzalez


Robert trade talk heats up: NL East rivals are vying for outfielder Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox, with Chicago apparently resolute in the stance that it’ll either receive a trade return the equivalent of what Robert’s potential is or hang on to him beyond the deadline. The White Sox hold a $20 million option on Robert next season, and they have tons of payroll flexibility moving forward, meaning that there really is no financial stress in the decision; Chicago doesn’t have to dump the contract.

A lot of Robert’s career has been filled with injuries or underwhelming performance, but he has always been viewed as a superstar talent. Luisangel Acuna and Mark Vientos are among the names who have come up in conversations with the Mets, and the Phillies have a farm system loaded with pitching. The Padres have also inquired about Robert. — Buster Olney


Braves moving Ozuna? Possibly to Padres? With little more than 48 hours to go before the deadline, there is movement developing around Marcell Ozuna, who has the power to reject any trade proposal. At least one team has had internal conversations about trying to work out a deal for the slugger.

It’ll be interesting to see if the Padres emerge as a possible landing spot for Ozuna. San Diego has some of baseball’s worst DH production this year — wRC+ of 82, which ranks 28th — and presumably, the prospect-strapped Padres wouldn’t have to give up much to get him. — Olney


Cards looking to deal Helsley: For a lot of this season, rival executives weren’t sure if the Cardinals would trade players at the deadline, because their perception was the organization wanted to have as good of a season as possible in John Mozeliak’s last year running baseball operations. They weren’t sure if closer Ryan Helsley, a free-agent-to-be, would be dealt. As recently as a few days ago, it was still unclear to some teams whether Helsley would be moved.

But on Tuesday morning, multiple executives said the Cardinals are exchanging names and appear devoted to moving Helsley, though the offers for him might not be as robust as they had hoped. Helsley’s strikeout rate is down this season, he has given up a higher percentage of homers, and his ERA has climbed. “He’s not having the lights-out season we’ve seen from him before,” one evaluator said. The Tigers, Mets, Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers, Phillies and Blue Jays are among the contenders looking for relief help. — Olney


Ouch! HBP has teams concerned about Suarez: At the very least, Eugenio Suarez getting hit by a pitch Monday night has concerned some rival evaluators who have talked about dealing for him. “If you pay a price like that, you’re going to want to feel good about what you’re getting,” one staffer said. And generally, hand/wrist injuries linger for hitters. — Olney


Reds eye Suarez, but there’s a backup plan: The Cincinnati Reds are among the teams that have been in contact with the Diamondbacks about Eugenio Suarez, but if Arizona finds a deal elsewhere, the Reds might pivot to another third baseman on the market — Gio Urshela of the A’s, Isiah Kiner-Falefa of the Pirates, one of the Mets’ infielders (Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuna, Mark Vientos), etc. — Olney


Want one of these aces? It’s gonna cost ya: There are a number of contenders looking for a frontline starting pitcher — Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, etc. — but the cost on two of the most prominent starters, the Twins’ Joe Ryan and the Padres’ Dylan Cease, remain extremely high in the minds of some evaluators. — Olney


Are the Rays adding or subtracting? Even they don’t know: The market is still stalled somewhat by teams deciding what they want to do. Tampa Bay is at the top of that list. The Rays have pitchers — both starters and relievers — that teams want. But being just on the outside of the wild-card race is causing some hesitation for the Rays. — Jesse Rogers

Then again … Other teams think Tampa Bay, which slumped through a brutal July, has joined the Diamondbacks as one of the primary subtractors in the market. Following the trade of Danny Jansen to Milwaukee, other names include starting pitcher Zack Littell (“He’s going to be traded,” one evaluator said), relief pitchers Garrett Cleavinger and Pete Fairbanks, and position players Yandy Diaz and Josh Lowe. But one rival executive says they believe Diaz will have to be pried away from the Rays, given his $12 million option for next season. — Olney


Yankees seeking relief — and lots of it: The Yankees continue to look for relief help. They have resources deployed throughout the league in search of bullpen arms. If there is a closer or setup man available, New York is scouting him. Think Ryan Helsley and work down from there. — Rogers


Speaking of relievers: Other teams believe the Colorado Rockies could do very well in the current market if they dealt their best relievers — Seth Halvorsen, Jake Bird and Jimmy Herget. But some of those same teams view the current cost to make those deals as unreachable, and they wonder if the Rockies will bend as the deadline gets closer. — Olney


Rangers ready to rock at the deadline: The Texas Rangers have won nine of 11 and rival executives report that the Rangers are aggressively looking to upgrade their bullpen before the trade deadline. — Olney

Completed deal tracker

Click here for grades for every major deal


Mariners make big move in acquiring Suarez

The Diamondbacks sent Eugenio Suarez, among the most coveted players this deadline, to the Mariners for prospects, sources tell ESPN.


Reds get RHP Zack Littell in three-way trade

In a deal that swaps prospects among the Reds, Dodgers and Rays, the Reds get a new starter in Littell, sources tell ESPN.


Astros add Urias to infield

The Houston Astros are acquiring infielder Ramón Urías from the Baltimore Orioles, sources tell ESPN.


Cubs acquire Soroka for rotation

The Chicago Cubs have acquired pitcher Michael Soroka from the Washington Nationals, sources tell ESPN.


Mets jump into reliever market, acquire Helsley

The New York Mets are finalizing a deal to acquire closer Ryan Helsley from the St. Louis Cardinals for shortstop Jesus Baez and right-handers Nate Dohm and Frank Elissalt, sources tell ESPN.


Phillies get Duran in deadline’s biggest deal yet

The Philadelphia Phillies have agreed to a deal to acquire closer Jhoan Duran from the Minnesota Twins for right-hander Mick Abel and catcher Eduardo Tait, sources tell ESPN.


Mariners trade for relief arm

The Seattle Mariners have acquired left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson from the Pittsburgh Pirates, sources tell ESPN.


Mets bolster bullpen in deal with Giants

The New York Mets have acquired right-handed reliever Tyler Rogers from the San Francisco Giants, a source confirms to ESPN.


Reds get Hayes for hot corner

The Cincinnati Reds have acquired third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for reliever Taylor Rogers and prospect Sammy Stafura, sources tell ESPN.


Braves add veteran to pen

The Atlanta Braves acquired RHP Tyler Kinley from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for minor league RHP Austin Smith.


Angels and Nationals swap pitchers

The Los Angeles Angels are acquiring relievers Luis Garcia and Andrew Chafin in a trade with the Washington Nationals, with left-hander Jake Eder one player heading back to the Nationals in the deal, sources tell ESPN.


Yankees add outfielder in deal with White Sox

The New York Yankees have acquired outfielder Austin Slater in a trade with the Chicago White Sox, sources tell ESPN.


Blue Jays get bullpen boost in deal with Orioles

The Toronto Blue Jays are acquiring right-handed reliever Seranthony Dominguez from the Baltimore Orioles for right-handed pitching prospect Juaron Watts-Brown, a source tells ESPN.


Rays deal catcher to Brewers, get one from Marlins

The Milwaukee Brewers acquired catcher Danny Jansen from the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are also acquired catcher Nick Fortes from the Miami Marlins.


Tigers bolster pitching staff

The Detroit Tigers receive RHP Chris Paddack and RHP Randy Dobnak from the Minnesota Twins for C/1B Enrique Jimenez.


Braves add veteran rotation arm

The Atlanta Braves acquired veteran starting pitcher Erick Fedde from the St. Louis Cardinals for a player to be named later or cash.


Yankees make another deal for infield depth

The New York Yankees acquired utility man Amed Rosario from the Washington Nationals for two minor leaguers.


Royals get outfielder in trade with D-backs

The Kansas City Royals acquired veteran outfielder Randal Grichuk from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for right-hander Andrew Hoffmann.


Yankees land infielder McMahon in deal with Rockies

The New York Yankees are acquiring third baseman Ryan McMahon in a trade with the Colorado Rockies.


Mets get bullpen help from O’s

The New York Mets have acquired left-handed reliever Gregory Soto from the Baltimore Orioles.


Mariners start trade season with deal for Naylor

The Seattle Mariners have acquired first baseman Josh Naylor from the Arizona Diamondbacks for left-hander Brandyn Garcia and right-hander Ashton Izzi.

Previous deadline buzz

July 28 updates

Mets in need of relievers: As we close in on the deadline, the Mets are looking to ideally add two relievers — a center fielder, and possibly an additional hitter to slot in a designated hitter, in the event that their current regular DH Mark Vientos is one of the players they need to include in a deal to address their needs.

White Sox CF Luis Robert Jr. is their top target for the center-field need, with Orioles CF Cedric Mullins as the second option, as Jesse Rogers has noted below. I’m told the White Sox have focused on Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Vientos and Luisangel Acuna in those Robert talks, with the last two being the most realistic options. — Kiley McDaniel


Bader could be a hot commodity: The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees are among the teams that have shown interest in Twins outfielder Harrison Bader, sources told ESPN. Bader is a plus defender batting .255 with 12 home runs and a .777 OPS in 93 games this season. His 2.0 fWAR ranks 30th in the majors among outfielders. He would effectively be a rental for a contender; he signed a one-year deal with $6.25 million guaranteed plus up to $2 million in bonuses that includes a mutual option for 2026. He is likely to opt for free agency to secure a better contract before his age-32 season.

Bader has played for both New York clubs; with the Yankees in 2022 and 2023 and with the Mets last season. The Yankees seek a right-handed-hitting outfielder with Aaron Judge‘s flexor strain throwing a wrench into their season. The Mets could use an upgrade in center field. The Dodgers, meanwhile, could use Bader in center field, move Andy Pages to left field and struggling Michael Conforto (.194 batting average and .650 OPS) to the bench. — Jorge Castillo


Yankees in on Bader, Slater? The Yankees continue to work on adding bullpen help, according to rival evaluators, and they have talked with other teams about right-handed-hitting outfielders. Former Yankee Harrison Bader is among those discussed, as well as White Sox outfielder Austin Slater. The Yankees’ bullpen has been the weakest part of the team this year, and they will be among the contenders likely to add relief before the deadline. — Olney


Blue Jays — like most teams — need bullpen help: Toronto is in an increasingly commanding position in the AL East, and one of the advantages the Blue Jays have is the flexibility of their position player group. They have a handful of players who can change spots according to the day-to-day needs of manager John Schneider. Like so many contending teams, the Jays are working to add bullpen help, according to rival evaluators, from the enormous pool of available relievers. — Olney


Yankees eyeing a few Bucs: The Yankees’ focus is now on adding pitchers — both a starter and multiple relievers — after upgrading their position player group with the additions of Ryan McMahon and Amed Rosario over the weekend.

As Kiley McDaniel notes below, Nationals All-Star left-hander MacKenzie Gore is a possible option if the Yankees are willing to pay a steep price.

New York has also shown interest in the Pirates’ available arms, a source told ESPN. Right-handed starter Mitch Keller, left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson and right-handed relievers David Bednar and Dennis Santana are among the pitchers Pittsburgh could move before Thursday’s deadline.

Landing Keller, a quality midrotation starter, would also require a hefty haul since the veteran is under contract over the next three seasons for about $54.5 million. So would adding Bednar, who is one of the top relievers available and under team control through next season. — Castillo


July 27 updates

Mets are scouring CF market — and Robert could play a big part: The New York Mets are keeping an eye on centerfielders Cedric Mullins of the Baltimore Orioles and Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox.

Robert returned to the lineup on Sunday as the designated hitter after missing the previous two games due to groin tightness. Before getting hurt, he was easily having the best month he has had over the past two seasons, hitting .351 with a .442 OBP in July. The White Sox have been waiting for an increase in prospect capital to move forward on a deal. It’s possible they finally get it this week; but they could always pick up the option in his contract this offseason and do this all over again next year. Robert’s production this month has teams intrigued. — Jesse Rogers


Not all White Sox players are on the table: The Chicago White Sox are holding out for a decent prospect return for starter Adrian Houser, who is likely to get moved by the deadline — unless teams just don’t believe in his 2.10 ERA over 11 starts. The Sox would love a 10th-to-20th-ranked prospect from an opposing organization’s farm system for him; though, teams are likely to lean toward the lower end of that instead of what Chicago prefers, closer to the higher end. The New York Yankees were among teams scouting Houser this weekend. He pitched another good one against the Chicago Cubs on Friday.

Meanwhile, depth outfielder Mike Tauchman isn’t likely to get traded. While Chicago still has another year of team control over him, the coaching staff has raved about his influence within its young clubhouse. He would be more valuable on the open market if he could play center field, but leg issues are a concern, and the White Sox aren’t likely to get much in prospect return for him. — Rogers


The market for one Marlins starter could be heating up: Teams unwilling or unable to meet the demands for Joe Ryan and MacKenzie Gore, two controllable starters who are more likely to stay put than move at this point, could easily pivot to Miami Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera. The 27-year-old is controllable through the 2028 season and has been on a really good run, posting a 2.47 ERA since the start of May.

Another Marlins pitcher, Sandy Alcantara, has been the big name bandied about on the trade front all year, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll be moved. Alcantara has struggled in his initial return from Tommy John surgery and is controllable for an additional two years. And the Marlins — surging of late, with 20 wins in their past 28 games — can easily justify holding on to him if they are not blown away by offers. At this point, Cabrera seems more likely to be traded. — Alden Gonzalez


Gore’s market is stalled for now: Jesse Rogers noted below (July 24 update) that the Chicago Cubs are looking to add a starting pitcher with years of control and would consider including a young position player, though hopefully not a top prospect, to make that happen. MacKenzie Gore is one of those targets, and the key player the Washington Nationals are rumored to want in a return package is Matt Shaw, who isn’t yet on the table and graduated from prospect status this season with 71 MLB games.

The New York Yankees are also shopping for a starting pitcher and have some young position players of interest to rivals, but they aren’t keen on including either of their top prospects, George Lombard Jr. or Spencer Jones. If they change that stance, they could be a dark horse fit with the Nats on Gore. — McDaniel


Boston should target Tampa Bay’s Diaz: The Tampa Bay Rays‘ struggles over the past month have really surprised other teams — and the Rays’ staffers, too — and now they could shift to become dealers at the deadline. Tampa Bay first baseman Yandy Diaz would be an absolutely perfect fit for the Boston Red Sox. He’s making $10 million this year (the Red Sox would be on the hook for about a third of that), and he has a very attractive $12 million option for 2026. — Olney


Could Ozuna be one of the Braves on the move? The Atlanta Braves might be the most disappointing team in the big leagues this year, and now they are fully prepared to execute a minor sell-off before the deadline, moving relievers Raisel Iglesias (who is making $16 million this year) and Pierce Johnson ($7 million, with a $7 million option for 2026) and maybe others. Marcell Ozuna, benched recently when manager Brian Snitker decided to devote the DH spot to catchers Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin, has 10-5 rights and can veto any trade proposal, which means the Braves are unlikely to engage any team in trade talks about Ozuna. If another team calls the Braves, however, to ask about his availability, then they will ask Ozuna if he would accept a move. The market for DHs is extremely limited, and Atlanta would presumably have to eat at least some of the $5 million or so owed to the slugger for the rest of this season. — Olney


Look for Texas to now be aggressive at the deadline: If you were to line up all the MLB president of baseball operations and general managers on a spectrum from most competitive to least, the peers of Rangers GM Chris Young would probably pick him to be the most competitive — which is why other teams assume that with Texas surging in the standings of late, the Rangers will be adding before the deadline. A few weeks ago, the assumption among those other clubs was that the Rangers would become dealers and perhaps move Adolis Garcia and others. But they have won eight of nine since the All-Star break and start Sunday just a half-game out of the third wild-card position. And remember, in 2023, Texas limped into the postseason and wound up winning the World Series. — Olney


Can Mets find an ace at deadline? The market has been very thin in teams offloading, but according to sources, the Mets continue to look around to see whether there’s a match for a starting pitcher capable of taking the ball for a Game 1, Game 2 or Game 3 of a postseason series. Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks could be that guy, or maybe it’s Seth Lugo of the Royals, or the Padres’ Dylan Cease. Perhaps it’s one of the two big-time starters who will be under team control beyond this season, the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara or the Twins’ Joe Ryan. The Mets’ rotation was exceptional early in the year, before injuries and natural regression began to take a toll, and the team could use a boost in the front end of this group as they fight the Phillies for NL East supremacy. — Olney


Which way will deadline bubble teams go? The staredown continues as deadline week begins, with perhaps as many as a half-dozen teams waiting to declare their status. “This weekend is big for a lot of teams,” said one evaluator.

The Rays, who appeared to be gathering momentum a month ago, are now just a game over .500, and given the organization’s longstanding focus on maximizing the value of their players, some rival evaluators think they could now be considering dealing some pieces away.

The St. Louis Cardinals are two games over .500, with the industry waiting to see whether they will deal closer Ryan Helsley. The expectation is that they will, given the tough NL playoff landscape. The Tigers could be interested, maybe the Phillies, Mets, Dodgers or Yankees.

The Los Angeles Angels are now five games under .500, and the presumption is that they will eventually move some players before the deadline, but the Angels don’t always operate in the way teams typically do. Taylor Ward has drawn interest from other organizations. — Olney


July 25 updates

Will the Royals trade Lugo — or extend him? Seth Lugo is an intriguing name in the trade market, but rival evaluators don’t sense the Royals are especially motivated to make a deal. Kansas City could also use this moment to explore an extension with Lugo, to keep their deep well of starting pitching intact. — Buster Olney


Angels’ deadline plans coming into focus: Any confusion about whether the Angels will add or subtract ahead of the trade deadline has seemingly cleared up in recent days, with a four-game losing streak that has them five games under .500.

The Angels are telling teams their pending free agents are available, sources with knowledge of the situation said. That includes third baseman Yoan Moncada, utility infielder Luis Rengifo, starting pitcher Tyler Anderson and closer Kenley Jansen. Left fielder Taylor Ward, controllable through 2026, can also be had with the right deal.

The Angels famously never rebuild under owner Arte Moreno and are prone to adding even in times when they seem like long shots to contend — most notably in 2023, when they not only held on to Shohei Ohtani but also traded for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez before collapsing in August.

At this time last year, they tried to move the likes of Anderson and Rengifo but did not believe they would have received enough back to justify holding on to them through the following season. And so it is worth noting: Even if the Angels do decide to punt on 2025, their goal would be to contend again next season.

Any moves they make would probably be geared toward that. By trading away rentals, the Angels will try to use the trade deadline to add accomplished players who can help the team next year. — Alden Gonzalez


What the Astros might be looking for: The Astros’ best fit in a hitter is someone who could play second base or left field, and they can move Jose Altuve accordingly. Per FanGraphs, the Astros have a 94.5% chance to reach the postseason; they lead the Mariners by five games in the AL West. — Buster Olney


How Arizona could shape the trade deadline: The Diamondbacks informed other teams in the past that they would “probably” be dealing away players, but even after trading Josh Naylor to Seattle, it’s unclear just how far Arizona will go. If the D-Backs decided to go all-in on trading veterans, they could reshape their organization significantly, by moving free-agents-to-be Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and, of course, Eugenio Suarez.

The perception of other front offices is that Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick does not want to completely offload, especially with the Dodgers drifting back toward the pack in the NL West — and as of Thursday night, Suarez wasn’t even officially on the market.

The Diamondbacks, who reached the World Series in 2023 after winning just 84 games during the regular season, won their first three games after the All-Star break, but have subsequently lost three in a row. What some rival evaluators believe is that if the D-Backs keep dealing, it’ll be because of a nudge from the front office. Arizona has been extensively scouting other organizations in preparation. — Buster Olney


White Sox starter drawing interest from contenders: About a half-dozen or more scouts will be in attendance at Rate Field on Friday night when Adrian Houser takes the mound for the White Sox. He has compiled a 1.89 ERA in 10 starts for Chicago after being picked up midseason. Teams don’t believe they’ll have to give up a lot to acquire him, and he could make for a good back-end starter or depth piece for a contender. The White Sox are likely to move him at his peak, and Friday could be the final look for those who are interested. — Jesse Rogers


July 24 updates

Could Mets land this deadline’s top slugger? Eugenio Suarez could be an intriguing option for the Mets as they’ve gotten little production out of Mark Vientos at third base. And if things work out and Suarez wants to stay — and they want him to — he could also provide protection for the Mets at first base in case Pete Alonso moves on next season. The Mets rank 23rd in OPS at third, so why wouldn’t they inquire about Suarez, knowing they can hand the position back to Vientos in 2026 if they wish. — Jesse Rogers


July 23 updates

Houston is in the market for a third baseman: Add the Astros to the list of contenders looking for a third baseman. With All-Star Isaac Paredes expected to miss significant time because of what manager Joe Espada described as a “pretty serious” right hamstring strain, the Astros have begun poking around for available third basemen. One of them is the Rockies’ Ryan McMahon, who also has drawn interest from a few other clubs.

The 30-year-old represents a solid veteran option. McMahon is slashing .217/.314/.403 with 16 home runs, and the metrics indicate he has been one of the top defensive third basemen in the majors this season. He is under contract over the next two seasons for $32 million, so he wouldn’t be just a rental, which should raise the Rockies’ asking price. — Jorge Castillo


A big addition to the available deadline starting pitching options? A surprise name has emerged in the starting pitcher market: Dylan Cease, who will be eligible for free agency at year’s end. Perception of other teams is that the Padres are intent on making a push for the playoffs and would use Cease to help fill other roster needs. Mets, AL East teams, Cubs among teams that have talked about him. — Buster Olney


How Cubs are approaching deadline: The Cubs are looking for a starting pitcher first and foremost, but won’t part with any top prospects for rentals. They would be willing to trade a young hitter for a cost-controlled pitcher or one already under contract past this season. They are desperate to add an arm who can help while Jameson Taillon recovers from a calf injury. Bullpen games in Taillon’s place haven’t gone well. — Jesse Rogers


Will Twins trade top pitchers? Several high-profile teams are in need of bullpen help ahead of the trade deadline — including the Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers — and the Twins have two of the best available in Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran. The sense is that at least one of them will be traded, but those who are looking for relief help expect the asking price to be very high, partly because both of them are controllable through 2027 and partly because the Twins’ uncertain ownership situation has clouded the approach with those who are not pending free agents.

The Twins are widely expected to trade outfielder Harrison Bader, super-utility player Willi Castro, starter Chris Paddack and lefty reliever Danny Coulombe. But Jax, Duran and young starter Joe Ryan are the ones who would bring back the biggest return. The Twins are said to be listening on everyone. But the team being up for sale since October, and in limbo ever since prospective buyer Justin Ishbia increased his ownership stake in the White Sox in early June, has complicated matters with longer-term players. — Alden Gonzalez


July 22 updates

An Orioles starting pitcher to watch: It seems very likely that Charlie Morton (3.47 ERA last 12 appearances) will be traded, within a relatively thin starting pitching market with a lot of teams looking for rotation help — the Padres, Yankees, maybe the Mets or Astros; a number of teams have expressed interest. In the past, Morton has had a preference to pitch for a team closer to the East Coast and his Florida home, but he doesn’t control that. O’s GM Mike Elias does. — Buster Olney


Will Cleveland deal All-Star outfielder? The player asked about the most on the Guardians’ roster is Steven Kwan, but given that he is two and a half years away from free agency, it’s unlikely he’ll be traded, according to sources. Kwan’s slash line this year: .288/.352/.398. He also has 11 stolen bases and has made consecutive All-Star appearances. — Olney


Braves not looking to move Murphy: Sean Murphy‘s name has been tossed around in trade speculation, but according to sources, he will not be available. Atlanta’s catcher is playing well this year and will be playing under a high-value contract for the next three seasons — $15 million per year from 2026 to 2028, plus a team option in ’29. And the Braves are set up well with the right-handed-hitting Murphy and left-handed-hitting Drake Baldwin perhaps sharing the catching and DH spots into the future. — Olney


Why the 2022 Cy Young winner isn’t the most in-demand Marlins starter: Edward Cabrera has become more coveted than Sandy Alcantara, who teams believe might take an offseason to fix. Alcantara’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is scary low — just 1.9 — and his ERA is 7.14. Cabrera, on the other hand, is striking out more than a batter per inning and his ERA sits at 3.61. The 27-year-old right-hander will come at a heavy cost for opposing teams. — Jesse Rogers


How Kansas City is approaching the trade deadline: The Royals have signaled a willingness to trade, but with an eye toward competing again next year — meaning they aren’t willing to part with the core of their pitching staff. Other teams say Kansas City is (unsurprisingly) looking to upgrade its future offense in whatever it does.

Right-handed starter Seth Lugo will be the most-watched Royal before the deadline, since he holds a $15 million player option for 2026 “that you’d assume he’s going to turn down,” said one rival staffer. That’ll make it more difficult for other teams to place a trade value on him: The Royals could want to market him as more than a mere rental, while other teams figure he’ll go into free agency in the fall when he turns down his option. — Olney


What the Dodgers need at the deadline: The Dodgers’ offense has been a source of consternation lately, with Max Muncy out, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman slumping, and key hitters tasked with lengthening out the lineup — Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Edman and Michael Conforto — also struggling.

But the Dodgers’ focus ahead of the deadline is still clearly the bullpen, specifically a high-leverage, right-handed reliever. Dodgers relievers lead the major leagues in innings pitched by a wide margin. Blake Treinen will be back soon, and Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol are expected to join him later in the season. But the Dodgers need at least one other trusted arm late in games.

It’s a stunning development, considering they returned the core of a bullpen that played a big role in last year’s championship run, then added Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates in free agency. But Scott and Yates have had their struggles, and there are enough injury concerns with several others that it’s a need. — Alden Gonzalez


Which D-backs starter is most coveted? The Diamondbacks are getting as many calls — if not more — about Zac Gallen as they are for Merrill Kelly, even though the latter starting pitcher is having the better season. Teams interested in adding to their rotations still have more faith in the 29-year-old Gallen than the 36-year-old Kelly. — Rogers


Who are the White Sox looking to deal? Chicago’s Adrian Houser seems likely to move, as a second-tier starter who has performed well this season. The 32-year-old right-hander was released by the Rangers in May but has been very effective since joining the White Sox rotation, giving up only two homers in 57⅔ innings and generating an ERA+ of 226. Nobody is taking those numbers at face value, but evaluators do view him as a market option. The White Sox also have some relievers worth considering.

But it seems unlikely that Luis Robert Jr. — once projected as a centerpiece of this deadline — will be dealt, unless a team makes a big bet on a player who has either underperformed or been hurt this year. The White Sox could continue to wait on Robert’s talent to manifest and his trade value to be restored by picking up his $20 million option for next year, which is hardly out of the question for a team with little future payroll obligation. — Olney


Why Rockies infielder could be popular deadline option: Colorado’s Ryan McMahon is the consolation prize for teams that miss out on Eugenio Suarez — if he’s traded at all. The Cubs could have interest and would pair him with Matt Shaw as a lefty/righty combo at third base. — Rogers


Does San Diego have enough to offer to make a big deal? The Padres have multiple needs ahead of the trade deadline — a left fielder, a catcher, a back-end starter. How adequately they can address them remains to be seen. The upper levels of their farm system have thinned out in recent years, and their budget might be tight.

The Padres dipped under MLB’s luxury-tax threshold last year, resetting the penalties. But FanGraphs projects their competitive balance tax payroll to finish at $263 million this year, easily clearing the 2025 threshold and just barely putting them into the second tier, triggering a 12% surcharge.

Padres general manager A.J. Preller might have to get creative in order to address his needs. One way he can do that is by buying and selling simultaneously. The Padres have several high-profile players who can hit the market this offseason — Dylan Cease, Michael King, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez — and a few others who can hit the open market after 2026. Don’t be surprised to see Preller leverage at least one of those players, and their salaries, to help fill multiple needs. — Gonzalez


Which Orioles could be on the move? Not surprisingly, Baltimore is perceived as a dealer and is expected by other teams to move center fielder Cedric Mullins, first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn and some relievers. — Olney

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MLB trade grades: How much does Duran help Phillies’ bullpen?

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MLB trade grades: How much does Duran help Phillies' bullpen?

It’s MLB trade season!

From the early deals to get things started to the last-minute rush of deadline day activity on Thursday, this is your one-stop shop for grades and analysis breaking down the details for every trade as they go down.

Follow along as ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield evaluate and grade each move, with the most recent grades at the top. This story will continue to be updated, so be sure to return for the freshest deadline analysis.


Phillies get:
RHP Jhoan Duran

Twins get:
C Eduardo Tait
RHP Mick Abel

Phillies grade: A

Is this classic David Dombrowski, or what? The Philadelphia Phillies, despite owning one of baseball’s best overall records, have a saves leader in Jordan Romano who has just eight with a 6.81 ERA. They’ve mixed and matched in high-leverage spots, not just save situations, with Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering emerging as the most reliable performers. Take those two, slot them in behind Duran, and how much prettier does that postseason picture look?

Duran might end up as the most valuable reliever dealt at the deadline, trumping the New York Mets‘ deal earlier in the day for Tyler Rogers. Perhaps noticing this, the Mets almost immediately responded by also acquiring Ryan Helsley from the St. Louis Cardinals. Even if the “most valuable traded reliever” title is up for debate, Duran will definitely be in the mix.

He’s arguably a better fit for Philadelphia than Helsley would’ve been, anyway, because Duran makes about half the money in 2025 and the Phillies are paying the maximum penalty in luxury tax (110% on payroll added from here) that the CBA allows. Duran also has three more years of team control (arbitration seasons) remaining after 2025. The Phillies have a new closer and it’s not just for the stretch run of this season.

In dealing Tait and Abel, president of baseball operations Dombrowski dealt two of his top-10 prospects (Nos. 4 and 5) but he didn’t deal Andrew Painter, whose name reportedly kept popping up on the Minnesota Twins‘ wish list. But dealing prospects is what Dombrowski does — along with winning pennants.

For the Phillies, it’s all about August, September and beyond. Their chances to navigate those crucial months just increased considerably.

Twins grade: B

Abel and Tait are excellent prospects that make the Twins’ system deeper and raise its ceiling. Abel, 23, has already gotten his feet wet at the big league level and should help the Twins rotation from the outset. He’s a classic long (6-foot-5), hard-throwing righty with good extension who, so far, has been hit pretty hard on contact — but he’s just getting started.

Tait has generally been the higher ranked of the two and is one of the 10 best catching prospects in the game. He’s also still a month shy of his 19th birthday, so unless the Twins put him on the really fast track, he’ll be climbing the ranks for a bit. His bat is exciting, with a good base of raw power and a better-than-average hit tool. Most analysts like his arm behind the plate but suggest he needs to learn the finer points of catching to stick at that crucial spot.

It’s a good haul, and the value exchange is reasonable for both sides. But given the clamor that had to exist for a player with Duran’s stuff, closing experience and service-time level, it feels like the Twins could have come out with more of a decided edge on the value standpoint. If they were going to trade Duran, they needed to be truly wowed and I’m not convinced this trade does that. Otherwise, I’d just as soon retain one of the game’s best relievers.

Clearly, the Twins’ evaluators buy into the considerable upside of Tait and the ongoing progress of Abel. If they’re right about that, this “B” can become an “A” easily enough. — Doolittle


Mets get:
RHP Tyler Rogers

Giants get:
OF Drew Gilbert
RHP Jose Butto
RHP Blade Tidwell

Mets grade: C+

Let’s get the important part out of the way first: Of the nine other identical twin combos in MLB history, none of the others was traded on the same day. So, the Rogers twins — who look so much alike as long as they aren’t on the mound — are the first, after Taylor was dealt from Cincinnati to Pittsburgh earlier in the day. That aspect of the grade gets an A+.

The rest of it I’m not so sure about, though Tyler Rogers is without a doubt a significant upgrade for the Mets’ bullpen, giving them a really nice trio at the back of the bullpen with closer Edwin Diaz and Reed Garrett. Deepening the high-leverage contingent was a must-do item for David Stearns at this deadline, so that box has been checked, though more would be nice.

All three in that trio are righties, but they have very different arm slots and pitch mixes, so they should complement each other well. In terms of performance, Rogers has been on point this season with a 1.80 ERA over 50 innings, with 38 whiffs and just four walks. On the other hand, Rogers is in a walk year, and that’s an awful lot of controllable talent to give up for two months and a postseason of a short reliever.

On the other other hand, if Rogers ends up pitching in late-October spots with a high championship-leverage index — and succeeds — Mets fans won’t sweat whatever the three young players headed for San Francisco end up doing. In the meantime, Stearns has freed up room on New York’s 40-man roster that he might need over the next 24 or so hours.

Giants grade: A-

The Giants aren’t out of the race, and while it’s easy to see dealing a key reliever as an act of white flag waving, the actuarial aspect of this deal was simply too good for Buster Posey to pass up. San Francisco’s playoff odds were at 12% in my system through Tuesday night, and while that’s not impossible, Posey is doing the right thing by (presumably) playing both sides of the fence. The Giants’ bullpen has been fantastic this season and is weakened by the loss of Rogers, but there’s still enough there to get back into the playoff chase if San Francisco snaps out of its extended slump.

Gilbert, the Mets’ No. 8 prospect, is the headliner: a good-defending outfielder with a strong enough arm that he can play anywhere in the grass. His offensive profile lacks a statistical standout, and as he will turn 25 in September, the Giants are likely going to push him along as quickly as they can.

Tidwell has good stuff, with a slider as his strong point, but his command has wavered during this development. It’s been better this year, and he made his first four big league appearances earlier this season. He has been a starter, but his fastball-slider combo gives him the flexibility to fill a key bullpen role if that’s the direction the Giants want to go.

Butto has the most big league experience of the three. He had been a combo-type hurler in the majors for the Mets until working exclusively in a medium-leverage role this season. He’ll likely fill Rogers’ role in the San Francisco bullpen for now, but with multiple controllable seasons left on his service-time clock, there’s a lot the Giants can do with him.

Rogers was terrific, but this haul was too good for Posey to refuse. — Doolittle


Yankees get:
OF Austin Slater

White Sox get:
RHP Gage Ziehl

Yankees grade: C+

The Yankees need outfield help. Slater is an outfielder, a veteran, with an easy-to-peg if limited set of strengths. The offense is short right now with Aaron Judge on the injured list, and while Slater is a Lilliputian to Judge’s Gulliver, he plays a decent corner outfield and hits lefty pitchers at an above-average rate, owning a .798 career OPS against southpaws and .859 this season. The recent pickup of Amed Rosario now looks like one that gives fellow recent pickup Ryan McMahon a platoon partner at third base, so Slater should have a steady role on the grass until Judge returns, and perhaps after as a platoon partner for Trent Grisham, with Judge playing some in center.

Eventually, we’ll find out whether losing Ziehl was too steep of a price to pay for adding a role player for two months and the postseason, but the Yankees are putting together a deep and balanced bench — provided their cornerstone players are healthy when October arrives. At the very least, Slater’s addition reduces the chances of the Yankees asking Giancarlo Stanton to figure out where his outfield glove has been stored.

White Sox grade: B

Ziehl hails from upstate New York, not far from the southern shore of Lake Ontario, and if he emerges as a big league pitcher, it looks as if he’ll do so just off the western shore of Lake Michigan now that he’s Chris Getz’s latest prospect acquisition for Chicago.

According to the prospect gurus, Ziehl relies on decent velocity with plus command and a plus sweeper-style slider as the foundation of his arsenal. A standout on the excellent Miami Hurricanes’ staff, Ziehl prospered in high-level competition as a collegian. This year marks his first taste of professional game action, and the results have been just so-so.

But the White Sox had very little use for Slater’s services except for this precise purpose: to add depth to the Chicago farm system via a trade deadline deal. Given Slater’s lack of everyday-player utility, this seems like a solid return. — Doolittle


Reds get:
3B Ke’Bryan Hayes

Pirates get:
SS Sammy Stafura
LHP Taylor Rogers

Reds grade: C-

The Reds have been one of the 57 teams mentioned as having interest in one-time Cincinnati third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who certainly would have been a more direct response to the Reds’ acute need for a middle-of-the-order bat. Hayes, whose sub-.300 slugging percentage stirs fond memories of 1970s-era shortstops, is not that.

He is, however, a Platinum Glove-level defender at the hot corner and, as they say, a run saved is as good as a run scored. Cincinnati has been playing Noelvi Marte at third base recently, and while Marte is having his best season at the plate, his defensive marks have been consistently below average and he has the positional versatility to rove around the field, as do most of the Reds’ other corner players.

Hayes doesn’t move around the field, but you don’t want him to. His value is as a defensive vacuum on the left side of the infield, one who will team with Elly De La Cruz to form one of the more dynamic infield duos around. The four years and $30 million Hayes has left on the extension he signed early in his career should be team-friendly, but he’s got to hit more than he has the past two campaigns amid ongoing back issues. For what it’s worth, Great American Ballpark is the only park other than PNC in which he’s hit more than two career homers. If the bat doesn’t pick up though, the Reds have likely acquired a long-term underwater contract.

Getting the Pirates to take on the remainder of Rogers’ expiring deal (the prorated remainder of his $12 million salary) likely sweetened the prospect return for Pittsburgh, while possibly freeing up the Reds’ payroll for further pursuits of that needed power bat.

Pirates grade: B

It sure seemed like the Pirates had developed their long-term third baseman when Hayes arrived and signed that extension, but the collapse of his bat ended that notion. Some teams might be able to carry a great-defending, poor-hitting corner player, but the Pirates need offense wherever they can get it. Getting out of their commitment to Hayes at least gives them a chance to find a more productive solution at his position.

Stafura, who just missed Cincinnati’s top 10 in Kiley McDaniel’s most recent prospect rankings could well be that guy. Or he might be the Pirates’ shortstop of the future, giving Pittsburgh the option of deploying elite prospect Konnor Griffin in center field.

Stafura is an athletic infielder with plus speed and an above-average defensive profile, good enough to stick at short according to most prospect analysts. His offensive profile is a little murky. He has exceptional plate discipline, but the question is whether he’ll make enough consistent contact in the majors to maintain the high OBPs he’s posted as a professional. Either way, he deepens Pittsburgh’s prospect base. — Doolittle


Brewers get:
C Danny Jansen (from Rays)

Rays get:
C Nick Fortes (from Marlins)
IF Jadher Areinamo (from Brewers)

Marlins get:
OF Matthew Etzel (from Rays)

Brewers grade: B

This might seem like a bizarre trade for the Brewers because they already have a solid catcher in William Contreras, but it looks like they are trying to cover all of their bases as they look toward a potential deep run in October. A question that a playoff-caliber team should consider: What happens if our starting catcher gets injured?

That’s pertinent for the Brewers because Contreras has played through a broken finger on his glove hand that he suffered in early May. That perhaps explains his lower offensive production this year, and he has struggled since the beginning of June, hitting just .229 with one home run in 44 games.

Jansen provides an upgrade over Eric Haase in the Brewers’ backup slot and could take some playing time from Contreras, who has started 87 of the Brewers’ 105 games. Jansen is a low-average hitter who can occasionally homer, hitting .204/.314/.389 with 11 home runs. It’s not a major move on paper, but it’s a smart one from one of the best front offices in the game.

Rays grade: C+

The Rays had big problems during the past couple of seasons with their catcher production, which led them to sign Jansen in the offseason to a one-year deal worth $8 million with a $12 million mutual option. The change from Jansen to Fortes makes sense from the Rays’ perspective: They were unlikely to pick up their half of that 2026 option, so with Fortes under team control through 2028, they at least have a semi-solution for the foreseeable future.

The only issue is that Fortes struggles at the plate, with a career line of .225/.277/.344, and he’s even worse if you look at his numbers since 2023. He is a good defensive catcher, ranking high in Statcast’s framing runs saved despite his limited playing time, so he at least provides a replacement.

Areinamo, who was traded for Jansen, was Milwaukee’s No. 24 prospect, via MLB.com. He’s a 21-year-old who has played all three infield positions at High-A, hitting .297/.355/.463 with 11 home runs. He’s undersized at 5-foot-8 with a strange bat whip as the pitcher delivers the pitch, but he has generated excellent contact rates and has performed in the low minors. He looks like a good sleeper prospect — and we know the Rays have thrived on acquiring those kinds of players (although they’ve made some mistakes as well, like trading Cristopher Sanchez to the Phillies).

Marlins grade: C

The Marlins deal from an organizational strength in trading Fortes. Rookies Agustin Ramirez and Liam Hicks have emerged as a solid backstop duo (with Ramirez getting a lot of DH time), plus they also have Joe Mack, one of their top prospects, in Triple-A.

Etzel was the Rays’ No. 28 prospect, via MLB.com, but the 23-year-old lefty-hitting outfielder has struggled in Double-A, hitting .230/.360/.347 with five home runs in 196 at-bats. He has been out since June 20 because of an injury. He was originally acquired last season from the Baltimore Orioles in the Zach Eflin trade. Etzel has plus speed and takes some walks, but he has played only the corner outfield in Double-A, so he looks like a tweener — not enough power for a corner position, not enough defense for center.

More proof that poor-hitting catchers have limited trade value, even if they’re excellent defensive catchers. — Schoenfield


Tigers get:
RHP Chris Paddack
RHP Randy Dobnak

Twins get:
C Enrique Jimenez

Tigers grade: D

The Detroit Tigers have been stumbling of late, going 2-12 since July 9 (and 21-25 since June 3 if you want to go back a bit further) — and it hasn’t been just a little stumble. They’ve been outscored 93-to-43 in this 14-game stretch, with the starting rotation posting a 5.59 ERA — and that’s including Tarik Skubal‘s numbers (although he did have one mediocre start in there).

The bullpen has been even worse, with a 7.93 ERA in this stretch and 5.03 since the beginning of June. Though it makes sense for the Tigers to acquire some pitching help, Paddack hardly projects as anything more than someone who might chew up a few extra innings beyond what they’ve been getting from their current back-end starters. He’s 3-9 with a 4.95 ERA for the Minnesota Twins, including a 5.40 ERA on the road, where his home run rate has spiked.

Paddack does throw strikes and has pitched at least five innings in 17 of 21 starts this season, but batters are hitting .266 with a .753 OPS off him. He’s a below-average starter, but probably a minor upgrade over Keider Montero, who has allowed 10 runs in 8⅓ innings over his past two starts and was sent down to the minors, or rookie Troy Melton, who made his first career start last week and got hammered by the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. Meanwhile, Dobnak is just a salary dump for the Twins — he wasn’t even on their 40-man roster and has a 7.12 ERA in Triple-A.

This is just one move for the Tigers. It’s not game changer. Look for them to add some bullpen help over the next few days.

Twins grade: C

Though this mostly seems like the Twins dumping a couple of million in salary between Paddack and Dobnak — don’t ever change, Twins — Jimenez is at least a real prospect, a 19-year-old catcher hitting .250/.339/.440 in the Florida Complex League. He was Detroit’s top international signing in 2023, out of Venezuela, and was ranked No. 14 on MLB.com’s prospect list for the Tigers and No. 17 on Baseball America’s. Jimenez is a switch-hitter, which is always fun to see from a catcher, but it’s also his second year in the FCL and his numbers have shown just minor improvement from 2024. Check back in three years. — Schoenfield


Yankees get:
3B Ryan McMahon

Rockies get:
LHP Griffin Herring
RHP Josh Grosz

Yankees grade: B

For Yankees fans who wanted Eugenio Suarez to fill the hole at third base, this looks like a big letdown considering McMahon is hitting .217/.314/.403 with 16 home runs — compared to Suarez’s 36 — and ranking second in the majors in strikeouts while playing half of his games at Coors Field. Away from Colorado, he has hit just .189 with five home runs. Consider the positives, however:

  • He has signed through 2027, so he is a solution at third base for the next two years as well (he’ll make $16 million each of the next two seasons).

  • He is an excellent defender, ranking in the 91st percentile in Statcast’s outs above average.

  • He ranks in the 86th percentile in walk rate.

  • He ranks in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity and 87th percentile in hard-hit rate.

  • He might get the “leaving Coors Field” boost, where his road numbers adjust to playing his home games in a more normal environment.

That last one is important. The Yankees have experience with this: DJ LeMahieu hit .327 and .364 in his first two seasons with the Yankees after leaving the Rockies. Yes, the strikeouts are the big concern here with McMahon, and while he is not having his best season, at the minimum, he upgrades the defense and gives the Yankees a little more power. I suspect McMahon won’t hit .189 with the Yankees and could prove to be a sneaky good addition.

Rockies grade: C

While McMahon’s name had been on the rumor mill, it’s still a mild surprise the Rockies actually traded him. First, they rarely make trades of any sort, especially significant ones, and they especially rarely trade their homegrown players such as McMahon. So, at least good for them for doing something that probably makes sense.

Did they get much in return? Herring was a sixth-round pick last year from LSU, where he pitched in relief. The Yankees turned him into a starter, and Herring has mowed through two levels of Single-A with a 1.71 ERA and 10.3 K’s per nine. Primarily a fastball/sweeper guy at LSU, his changeup has proven a big weapon as right-handed batters are hitting just .159 against him.

A college pitcher from a high-profile program such as LSU dominating the low minors usually doesn’t tell us much, except in this case, Herring’s lack of experience and successful transition to a bigger workload is a huge positive. Herring didn’t crack Kiley McDaniel’s top 10 Yankees prospects in his July update but did make MLB.com’s list at No. 8.

Grosz has spent the entire 2025 season at high A, posting a 4.14 ERA with 94 strikeouts in 85 innings and holding batters to a .211 average. He has a high-spin fastball that sits in the mid-90s, but the secondary stuff needs improvement, and the command is a tick below average (35 walks).

The biggest issue is these are two pitchers who haven’t performed above Single-A and don’t necessarily have elite stuff. The stat lines look good, but the next step to Double-A will be a big test to see how Herring’s fastball plays against better competition and whether Grosz can improve his command. — Schoenfield


Mets get:
LHP Gregory Soto

Orioles get:
RHP Wellington Aracena, RHP Cameron Foster

Mets grade: C+

Through the end of May, the Mets’ bullpen ranked second in the majors with a 2.78 ERA. Since June 1, however, the Mets rank 27th with a 5.02 ERA, so Soto is a logical addition — and probably won’t be the last reliever the Mets acquire. Part of the problem is Mets’ starters haven’t pitched deep into games and manager Carlos Mendoza ran his top relievers except closer Edwin Diaz into the ground.

The Mets have also been without a reliable lefty with offseason signing A.J. Minter out for the year. They did just activate Brooks Raley, but Soto gives them another lefty option, no doubt thinking ahead to potential playoff matchups against the Phillies (Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber), Dodgers (Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman) or Cubs (Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong). They’re going to need more than one lefty reliever.

Is Soto a good option though? He still has premium stuff with a 97 mph fastball and wipeout slider, and left-handed batters are hitting just .138 against him in 2025 (although two of the eight hits have been home runs). As always, however, throwing strikes is often an issue (4.5 walks per nine), and he has a large platoon split (right-handed batters have a .371 OBP against him). Soto is a good left-on-left on matchup, but his control means he isn’t always the most trustworthy, and the Orioles weren’t using him in a lot of high-leverage situations of late.

Orioles grade: B-

Let the exodus begin. With as many as 11 more potential free agents, the Orioles are going to be busy over the next week. A lot of those trades will look like this one: a couple of second-tier type prospects. Aracena (No. 19 on MLB.com’s Mets list, No. 28 on Baseball America) is a 6-foot-3, 20-year-old right-hander with a 2.38 ERA in low-A, including 84 strikeouts in 64 innings, featuring a fastball in the upper 90s that has topped out at 101. That’s the good news. The “Why did the Mets trade him?” news is that he has walked 35 batters. He has a cutter and a slider, but the profile here suggests he might end up as a reliever. Still, a decent return for a non-elite reliever such as Soto.

Foster is a 26-year-old reliever who crushed Double-A in repeating the level this season (1.01 ERA), although he struggled in his first two outings after a recent promotion to Triple-A (seven runs in 3.2 innings). Given all the trades the Orioles will make, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him pop up in the big league bullpen at some point this season. — Schoenfield


Mariners get:
1B Josh Naylor

Diamondbacks get:
LHP Brandyn Garcia
RHP Ashton Izzi

Mariners grade: B+

This is the first significant trade heading into the final week before the deadline, and it’s interesting in part because it signifies the Diamondbacks are going to be dealing — Naylor could be the first of a group that might include Eugenio Suarez, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, potentially spicing up the deadline with some intriguing names.

While third base was the Mariners’ biggest offensive need, Naylor gives them a well-rounded hitter who has been one of the top contact hitters in the majors this season, hitting .292/.360/.447 with 11 home runs and the 13th-lowest strikeout rate among qualified hitters. Naylor has done most of his damage against right-handed pitchers, hitting .310/.390/.493 with nine of his 11 home runs. That’s an upgrade over incumbent Luke Raley, who has hit .248/.370/.397 against right-handers but is just 1-for-20 against southpaws, with light-hitting Donovan Solano serving as his platoon partner.

Naylor can play every day and fits somewhere in the middle of the lineup, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the majors in strikeout rate, so his contact ability will be a nice addition. It also improves Seattle’s bench as Raley can now fill in at right field (although Dominic Canzone has been hitting well) or DH, with Jorge Polanco perhaps getting some time at second base over Cole Young. Rookie third baseman Ben Williamson is an excellent defender but has just one home run in 256 at-bats. While Polanco has plenty of experience at third in his career, he hasn’t started there since April 4 as a shoulder issue has limited his throwing.

In other words: The Mariners could still seek an upgrade at third base. The Diamondbacks might wait until July 31 to deal Suarez, hoping that one of the several teams that need a third baseman will give in with a nice package of prospects. The Mariners didn’t give up any of their top 10 prospects here, so here’s guessing that Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and Arizona general manager Mike Hazen aren’t done exchanging text messages.

Diamondbacks grade: B

While Garcia and Izzi didn’t rank in Kiley McDaniel’s top 10 Mariners prospects, that’s not necessarily a knock on their potential: Seattle’s top 10 is loaded with top-100 overall prospects. Garcia was ranked No. 13 on MLB.com’s team list and Izzi No. 16.

Drafted in the 11th round out of Texas A&M in 2023, Garcia was a surprising success story as a starter in 2024, but the Mariners moved him to the bullpen this season, and he just made his MLB debut after posting a 3.51 ERA across Double-A and Triple-A with 42 strikeouts in 33⅔ innings. He throws a mid-90s sinker along with a sweeper and cutter, and held lefties to a .235 average and .255 slugging percentage. He can probably go straight to Arizona’s bullpen right now, with the idea that the Diamondbacks try him as a starter in 2026. He’s a nice sleeper prospect in a trade like this, with at least a floor as a reliever and maybe some upside as a back-end starter.

Izzi is a 21-year-old righty with a mid-90s fastball who was a fourth-round pick out of high school in 2022, but he has struggled at high-A Everett with a 5.51 ERA across 12 starts. His fastball/sweeper combo could eventually work as a reliever, although right-handed batters have hit him as hard as lefties. He’s a development prospect.

Nothing too flashy here, but there wasn’t going to be a huge market for Naylor, and he was competing with the likes of Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna in the 1B/DH class, so Arizona probably figured it had to strike first with Naylor, giving the team more time to discuss deals for their other pending free agents. — Schoenfield

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Last-minute MLB trade deadline intel: What Buster Olney and Jeff Passan are hearing

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Last-minute MLB trade deadline intel: What Buster Olney and Jeff Passan are hearing

The MLB trade season is heading to the homestretch!

While this year’s deals have been a bit slow to develop, there have been intriguing acquisitions, with the Seattle Mariners landing Josh Naylor and the New York Yankees getting Ryan McMahon headlining the early moves.

Now, with less than 48 hours remaining to deal before the 6 p.m. ET deadline arrives Thursday, conversations involving big names, including Eugenio Suarez, Dylan Cease and Luis Robert Jr., continue to circulate through the industry.

Which players will move in the final days? Which teams will go all-in to add the best available players? And which trades will have the biggest impact on the rest of the season? We enlisted ESPN MLB insiders Buster Olney and Jeff Passan to offer their latest intel as the deadline nears.


What are you hearing that could keep things moving in the final hours?

Olney: The New York Mets‘ effort to get better. The Arizona Diamondbacks are the epicenter of the teams looking to part with players, but between now and the deadline, the Mets might be the most aggressive club adding players, looking for a starter who could pitch Game 1, 2 or 3 of a postseason series. Relief pitching and an outfielder — perhaps Cedric Mullins of the Baltimore Orioles — are also among their needs.

Passan: The number of teams that want high-leverage relief pitchers — and the relative paucity of them on the market. St. Louis’ Ryan Helsley is the top rental option. And then there is the group of controllable arms who could move but don’t have to: Pittsburgh’s David Bednar, Minnesota’s Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, and Tampa Bay’s Pete Fairbanks.

Considering the number of teams that desire impact relief help — the Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers, both New York teams and the Los Angeles Dodgers — the ones that have it are understandably holding out for a strong return. There are second- and third-tier relievers, sure, but there isn’t enough elite supply for the demand that exists. Which is why San Diego is dangling Robert Suarez, San Francisco is fielding calls on its back-end guys, and even the A’s could conceivably get an offer they can’t refuse for Mason Miller.


Which deal do you think will have the biggest impact on the rest of the season?

Olney: Whichever late-inning reliever is acquired by the Philadelphia Phillies — whether it be Ryan Helsley or Griffin Jax or someone else — Rob Thomson will have to rely on that pitcher heading into the postseason. Jose Alvarado is sidelined in October because of his PED suspension.

Passan: It all depends on teams’ willingness to move players with multiple years of control. The market of impending free agents ranges somewhere between meh and ugh. But if Joe Ryan or MacKenzie Gore were to go? Duran or Jax? Steven Kwan? All are possible. The cost, at this point, is prohibitive, but the deadline does odd things to front offices. Discomfort can be the most underrated tool at a deadline.


We’ve seen varying activity levels from the World Series favorites. What are you hearing about the last-minute plans for the division leaders?

Passan: The Blue Jays want at least one more reliever after getting Seranthony Dominguez from the Orioles. Detroit wants to shore up the back end of its bullpen and isn’t against nibbling for value on bigger pieces. The Astros want a starting pitcher. The New York Mets will get an arm and a center-field bat. The Brewers won’t do much, unless value falls into their laps. The Dodgers will consider bigger names, with a reliever the top priority.

Olney: In the American League, the World Series favorite means … everybody. The league seeming to be so wide open is driving a lot of the enthusiasm for the Mariners, Texas Rangers and even the Yankees. You can draw up a reasonable path to the World Series for about seven teams in the AL, and this might well fuel some bold moves in the last hours before the deadline.


The wild-card races are tightening. What are you hearing the Chicago Cubs, Phillies, Yankees and Mariners could do next as they try to keep their grip on the top spots?

Olney: The Cubs would love to add a front-line starting pitcher, someone who could effectively replace Justin Steele in their rotation. But maybe more than any team, they could be hamstrung by how thin the market is unless they value the cost of acquiring Joe Ryan or Cease or if they work something out for Merrill Kelly.

The Yankees are focused on adding bullpen help and a right-handed hitting outfielder, such as Harrison Bader. The Phillies need a high-end bullpen pitcher but are also in the mix for Luis Robert Jr. And the Mariners are going to do something for their bullpen — plus, some rival execs still view them as the favorite to land Eugenio Suarez.

Passan: Shane Bieber is another option for the Cubs. The Phillies are among the most aggressive teams in the relief market and will add an arm. The Yankees aren’t as gung ho as they were, say, two weeks ago, but they’re going to backfill with at least one solid reliever.

The Mariners are the deadline wild card, though. They’ve got a cadre of top 100-caliber prospects — eight in all — and the question they’ll ask themselves is: Are we comfortable moving someone like Harry Ford for a rental like Suarez? To this point, the answer has been no. But weird things happen in the final 40 hours before a deadline. And a team really going for it — the Mariners want a bullpen arm, too — is far from the worst thing, particularly when said team has never even made the World Series.


Who are some other available players you are hearing discussed most by front offices?

Passan: Wednesday is the day that teams are hoping to see the asks in return for controllable players come down. If they don’t, those teams will start pivoting to the rental market, understanding that it’s going to be flooded and looking to strike rather than be put in a panicky position over the final 12 hours before the deadline. The big names — Eugenio Suarez, Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Luis Robert Jr., Bednar, Helsley, Bieber — have plenty of traction, and most, if not all, will go.

Olney: I’d guess that 75% of the players moved between now and the deadline will be relievers. This will be like a game of musical chairs, as front offices sort through options such as the Minnesota TwinsDanny Coulombe and Griffin Jax, the Rays’ Pete Fairbanks, the Rockies’ Seth Halvorsen, etc. All of the contenders are looking to add relievers, and they are looking at the same players.


Which other teams are you hearing could be the most active before the deadline arrives?

Olney: The Tampa Bay Rays and Diamondbacks figure to be the most prominent to deal players, and the San Diego Padres will do something to augment their offense and try to get back into the October dance.

Passan: The Orioles, even after moving Dominguez and Gregory Soto, have a huge inventory. The D-backs will be busy. The Marlins, with Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera and a group of relievers, could play a big role. The Twins have lots to offer. Beyond Duran and Jax, left-hander Coulombe and right-hander Brock Stewart are two relievers with markets, and super-utility man Willi Castro could go, too. The Pirates will be busy. And the Guardians hold a lot of cards with Kwan and Bieber.


What else are you hearing ahead of the deadline?

Olney: A lot of frustration because teams looking to trade prominent players — knowing this year’s market — are holding their asking prices high, and the teams who want to add are trying to wait them out. “It’s a slow-moving market,” one exec said Tuesday night. But at some point, rest assured, the dam will break, and the deals — mostly for relievers — will happen fast and furious.

Passan: The Padres, as always, are toying with doing something big. The Twins continue to have exceptionally high asks on their relief arms. The chance of the Guardians moving Kwan is higher than teams believed a week ago. The Phillies and Mets are being very aggressive. Some teams are looking at players controlled through 2027 and factoring in the possibility that labor discord could significantly impact that season. And the lack of star power that could move will be made up for by the volume of deals.

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