Delayed flights, missed meals and little sleep: How college teams adjusted to cross-country travel
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Kyle Bonagura
IF THERE WERE ever a moment when Oregon State baseball coach Mitch Canham would have had reason to second-guess his decision for the Beavers to play an independent schedule in the wake of the Pac-12’s collapse, it might have been in the early hours of March 31.
Oregon State had just completed a three-game series at Nebraska and was waiting out a four-hour delay in the Denver airport. The team still had a two-and-a-half-hour flight to go, and it would take at least another two hours after that to get on the bus in Portland and drive home to Corvallis, just as the rest of the town would be starting their day.
It started ordinarily enough, but this Sunday quickly devolved into a comedy of errors.
There was a standard breakfast before the noon game, which had a three-hour window to be played before the team needed to leave for the Lincoln airport to catch its flight. Things started to go off the rails in the bottom of the seventh inning. That’s when OSU gave up nine runs before another in the eighth to lose 16-7, after which it found out a popular local barbecue joint had cancelled the team’s postgame meal.
The Beavers didn’t have enough time to make other food arrangements — or shower — before they needed to be at the airport, so they took their chances at finding food at the terminal. There turned out to be only one option, a sandwich spot, but as the Beavers arrived, the place’s only two workers got into a loud argument.
“We’re trying to get a sandwich right before we get on the plane, because we haven’t eaten and they just start going at each other,” Canham said. “One guy is like, ‘I quit.’ And we say, “No, not yet, man. How about we get 30 sandwiches real quick and then you quit?'”
The plea didn’t work, leaving this increasingly hungry college baseball team without a meal for another couple hours before the members would have a chance to grab food during their layover in Denver. And when they were delayed, it felt like the team was living an elaborate prank.
“We look at each other, we laugh and alright, what’s next?” Canham said. “How do we make the best of this?”
If there was any consolation for Canham as he tried to get some sleep in the airport that night, it came when he found out several of his players crossed paths in the terminal with the Cal baseball team. Their former Pac-12 rival — now playing in the ACC — was on its way back from Louisville, and its flight wasn’t going to leave until 6 a.m.
These are no longer just isolated inconveniences, they’re the new normal.
Oregon State’s long trek home was more than just a rough travel day, it was a glimpse of the logistical challenges many programs now face. For Oregon State, Cal, UCLA and other West Coast teams, this year of realignment has brought a constant grind to remain at the highest levels of college athletics.
WHEN THE DUST settled on the latest round of college sports realignment, few schools bore as much responsibility as UCLA. Along with crosstown rival USC, the Bruins were a main driver in breaking up the Pac-12 when they opted to leave for the Big Ten.
For football, the situation was different. The travel generally involves shorter trips than most nonrevenue sports, and schools typically charter flights for football, which limits many of the headaches that come with commercial travel. Most of the trips align with weekend game schedules, so there’s less interference with academics, making the whole proposition more manageable.
But what would it mean for nonrevenue sports such as women’s soccer?
“My first reaction was obviously a bit of surprise,” said UCLA women’s soccer coach Margueritte Aozasa, who led the Bruins to the 2022 national title in her first year as coach. “I was on a recruiting call when the news dropped, and I was like, ‘Oh.’ But at the same time, I was pleased because the Big Ten is well-positioned in the future of collegiate sports.”
Aozasa and her staff soon realized that while the number of trips on UCLA’s 2024 schedule didn’t change much from the Pac-12 days, the cross-country flights added significant fatigue.
“The biggest adjustment we’ll make going forward is investing more in recovery,” Aozasa said. “Our team actually performed really well on the road, but it was the games the next week, when we had to come back after making that longer travel trip, that we noticed it.”
To track that toll, UCLA relied on GPS wearables and readiness surveys, which showed higher levels of fatigue and soreness than usual. The data helped confirm what coaches had anticipated, that there would need to be different recovery processes than when most of the games were confined to the West Coast.
Some early-season injuries also added to the strain. Players logged more minutes than expected, and the cumulative wear of flights, hotels and unfamiliar fields only added to the challenge.
“It wasn’t just the travel,” Aozasa said. “We were very shorthanded early on, so that stretch of games — Kentucky, Tennessee, then two back-to-back Big Ten trips — it really tested us.”
The impact was felt most acutely during the Big Ten conference tournament, which was already a new concept as the Pac-12 didn’t have a postseason conference tournament. UCLA won the tournament, but doing so meant the Bruins had to play three games in six days — including a snow delay in Minnesota — as a precursor to the NCAA tournament.
“We definitely felt it,” Aozasa said. “Playing three games in six days away and then coming back was not easy. It’s something we, as a staff, have to adjust to.”
UCLA received a No. 2 seed in the tournament, but was eliminated in the second round.
Aozasa expects that with time the sort of issues they dealt with for the first time this season won’t feel like issues at all, and they’ll just be part of life in big-time college athletics. The team will be able to learn from the experiences each season and apply those lessons down the road.
“Last year was probably the only time we’ll have to plan a nonconference schedule before we had the conference dates,” Aozasa said. “This year, we’re back on track. We have our home and away opponents and the dates set, so we can plan more thoughtfully.”
One of the main topics for concern as realignment dispersed West Coast teams across the country was the potential impact on academics. And while that remains top of mind for many coaches, Aozasa said the adjustment was easier than she expected.
For a sport like women’s soccer, the number of missed classes didn’t really change. Yes, their flights were longer, but the number of travel days was similar.
“If we were having this conversation seven or eight years ago, it would be a different story,” she said. “But now, with how used to remote learning everyone is, our players didn’t have to make any major adjustments on the academic side.”
There was also the benefit of being exposed to new places.
“We had players who had never been to the Midwest,” Aozasa said. “They got to see college towns for the first time, experience a pumpkin patch that wasn’t in a parking lot. The girls loved it.”
For all the talk of challenges, Aozasa said she was proud of how her team adapted.
“We have to be adaptable,” Aozasa said. “We have to be advocates for the health and wellbeing of our players, but we also have to be adaptable. That’s the only way forward in college sports today.”
Aozasa’s positive outlook on competing in the Big Ten wasn’t a stance shared on campus by men’s basketball coach Mick Cronin, who at various points this past season expressed frustration with UCLA‘s new life on the road.
Following a home win against Iowa in January, Cronin was asked about what kind of impact the travel to the West Coast might have had on Iowa.
“Wear and tear on them? Is that a joke? Please tell me that’s a joke,” Cronin said. “We have to go back [East] four times. Oh, the Big Ten teams get to come to Los Angeles where it’s 70 degrees one time a year. They don’t even have to switch hotels. [UCLA and USC] are 12 miles apart, are you kidding me? Please tell me you’re kidding me.”
Cronin’s rant went on.
“We’ve seen the Statue of Liberty twice in the last three weeks while we were landing. We also saw the Capitol Building,” Cronin said. “And we’ve still got to go back, and then we’ve got to go back for the Big Ten tournament. They do it one time.”
By the time UCLA’s season was over, the Bruins took 12 trips outside of Los Angeles, traversing the country to the tune of approximately 35,240 miles in the air. After flying approximately 21,000 miles the year before, it was an increase of about 66%.
Still, UCLA finished tied for fourth in the Big Ten during the regular season and earned a No. 7 seed in the NCAA tournament. After winning their first-round game against Utah State 72-46, the Bruins bowed out in the second round with a 67-58 loss to second-seeded Tennessee.
With the loss marking the end to a long, often frustrating season, Cronin delivered another memorable round of travel critiques in the postgame news conference.
“Right now guys, it’s 12:40 a.m. and our season just ended,” he said. “Right now my biggest concern is how bad the seats are on [our Allegiant Air] flight, on that terrible plane we’re going to have to fly home tomorrow.”
Cronin’s unfiltered criticism made it clear he felt like UCLA was at a competitive disadvantage with the amount of travel his team had to do within the Big Ten compared to the conference’s longtime members.
While it should be easy to understand his point, and it is hard to argue against it, Cronin isn’t exactly a sympathetic figure, for a couple reasons. The most obvious is that UCLA brought this upon itself. While Cronin might not have been consulted on the decision to leave to the Pac-12 and is in no way responsible for the move, the university was not forced into this new normal like, for example, Oregon State was. UCLA determined the increased media revenue from being in the Big Ten was worth sacrificing in other ways.
Then, of course, there is the success of the women’s basketball programs at UCLA and USC, which dealt with the same kind of travel challenges and still managed to go a combined 65-7 during the regular season and earned No. 1 seeds, before they were both eliminated by eventual champion UConn. The travel might make winning more difficult, but after one season it’s impossible to say with any confidence to what degree it makes a difference.
In 2024, the UCLA softball team played two games outside the Pacific Time Zone during the regular season — both in an early-season invitational tournament in Florida — before the NCAA tournament and its eventual trip to the Women’s College World Series in Oklahoma.
This year, that number jumped to 14, including a six-game road trip that included games in Iowa, Washington D.C. and Maryland. But the results were similar. UCLA hosted in the first round and took two of three last week in a super regional at South Carolina to return to the Women’s College World Series. If there was a competitive disadvantage that came from more time on the road, it was minimal.
AFTER MOST OF the Pac-12 fled for safe haven in the Big Ten, Big 12 and, finally, the ACC, Oregon State — along with Washington State — lost the proverbial game of musical chairs.
It left Canham weighing the future of Oregon State baseball. Realignment did not leave the Beavers with many viable options to maintain their place as an elite college baseball destination.
“I looked at the possibilities and just didn’t see anything that lined up,” Canham said. “A lot of the options were conferences that typically get one bid into the postseason. And that’s not the level we want for our program or our players. We want to play the best.”
Washington State sent its baseball team to the Mountain West as an affiliate member, but that wasn’t an appealing destination for the Beavers. So, after seeking out the viability of affiliate membership elsewhere, Oregon State made a bold decision: it went independent. The Beavers are the only independent college baseball team this season, and they’ll be independent again in 2026.
The choice came with a heavy dose of uncertainty and an even heavier travel burden. Without a conference to rely on for a bulk of the scheduling, Canham spent hours on the phone, calling around to piece together a full slate of games.
“I needed an opportunity to try to fill out a schedule and see if we could make this work,” he said. “I was going to call and ask for that game to fill a complete schedule.”
While Oregon State’s ballpark, Goss Stadium, offered a premier setting, getting other teams to visit — especially late in the season during conference play — was difficult. Many preferred to keep their bye weeks at home, leaving Oregon State with little leverage to bring opponents to Corvallis.
“I assumed that everyone would want to come here and play because of the history, the ambience, just the beauty of the ballpark,” Canham said. “But for Year 1, that was not necessarily in the cards for many schools.”
The Beavers instead faced an exhausting schedule of away games, spending countless hours in airports, buses and hotel rooms. Of their 54 games this season, only 19 were at home.
It was the kind of season that tested everything: sleep schedules, nutrition, recovery. It wasn’t unusual for the team to practice on the road as late as 9 p.m. on a Thursday after a full day of travel.
Earlier this month, the team met at its facility to catch a 4 a.m. bus to get to Portland for a flight to Iowa. But the bus never showed up, leaving coaches to pack players and bags into their own cars.
“I go, ‘There’s no bus,'” Canham said. “So I said, ‘All right, everybody, coaches get your cars.’ We loaded up all the guys and drove them to the airport ourselves.”
But if any program was equipped for adversity, it was Oregon State. With three national championships in 2006, 2007 and 2018, the Beavers have long been a powerhouse in college baseball. Under former coach Pat Casey, Oregon State became one of the most respected programs in the country.
That tradition has carried on under Canham, a former Oregon State catcher who played on the 2006 and 2007 title-winning teams. He has seen firsthand what it takes to succeed on the national stage, and he is doing everything within his power to maintain that legacy.
“This is a program that’s built on toughness and resilience,” he said. “We’ve played in some of the biggest games in college baseball history, and we’re going to keep pushing to be in that conversation every year.”
Despite the chaos of this independent season, the Beavers refused to view it as a burden.
“None of these are complaints,” Canham said. “These are all blessings, how we choose to look at this. Because if we’re trying to prep these guys for going on and playing in the professional ranks, they’re going to be doing a lot of that constant travel on the road.”
In Cal’s first baseball season in the ACC, coach Mike Neu also had to reimagine his strategy to scheduling. The Bears would have to cross the country for any conference away games except against Bay Area-rival Stanford, so Neu wanted to limit the travel early on.
“Once I found everything out, the goal was, ‘Let’s play more at home knowing we’re going to travel a little bit more, and let’s leave a day earlier,'” he said.
His focus was on cutting down on travel days, reshuffling midweek games and ensuring his players had enough time to recover and adjust to different environments. Cal had been scheduled to play in a tournament in Texas, but Neu backed out of that and replaced it with local games.
In the past, Cal had always left on Thursday for road trips in the Pac-12, but that changed this year. For trips back East, the team would leave on Wednesday. The change came for a couple reasons, but largely stems from an experience Cal had traveling to Pittsburgh in 2023. For that trip, Cal’s direct Thursday flight to Pennsylvania was canceled. The team ended up having to connect and got in very late that night, without the chance to practice and get acclimated.
“That’s one of those factors that probably made the decision easier to leave on Wednesday because if that happens on Wednesday, OK, we’re going to be fine,” Neu said.
After playing mostly local games to start the season, Neu said he’ll likely replicate the plan next year, and he is confident the team could actually handle another out-of-town tournament at the start of the season or another road trip, possibly in Southern California.
“I don’t think that would be overwhelming for us,” Neu said. “I think this season has probably given me the confidence we don’t have to play every game at home in the preseason.”
Playing at home didn’t end up serving as much of an advantage, at least not in the most basic way to evaluate such things. The Bears finished the season 12-18 at home, 10-12 on the road and limped to a 9-21 record to finish in last place in the ACC. With the No. 16 seed in the ACC tournament last week, Cal won a pair of 9 a.m. ET games in Durham, North Carolina, against No. 9 Miami and No. 8 Wake Forest before being eliminated by top-seeded Georgia Tech.
THE TRAVEL TOLL was real, but — at least for Oregon State — so was the payoff. After finishing their independent season 41-12-1, the Beavers earned the No. 8 national seed in the NCAA tournament. That means they’ll host a regional in Corvallis that begins Friday and, if they advance, they would again play host, but for a super regional.
The question now is whether any of this is truly sustainable. Will the cross-country flights, missed meals and sleep-deprived nights slowly erode the competitive edge these programs have fought so hard to maintain? Will players be worn down by the mental and physical toll, or will they find ways to adapt, season after season?
For now, the realignment trend across college sports is for conferences to become more national. But with such a drastic shift, it’s fair to wonder whether, years from now, some of these nonrevenue sports might ultimately trend back in the other direction. That day won’t come soon, but the jury is still out on whether this new era of constant travel is truly the way forward, or simply a phase that college sports will eventually outgrow.
The 12-team College Football Playoff will again include the five highest-ranked conference champions — a guarantee that expands the pool of candidates to include any team that has a shot at winning its conference.
According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, there are 32 teams — the most in the CFP era — with at least a 10% chance of reaching the playoff. They come from the Power 4 conferences, the American and the Mountain West, but how many of them can actually win the national title?
“Four or five,” Texas A&M coach Mike Elko said.
“I’d say there’s eight,” Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer said.
This list will shrink by November, but below it starts with 32 teams ranked in order of their percentage chance to make the playoff. You’ll also see their chance to win the national title, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
The CFP selection committee doesn’t always agree with the computers, though. Here’s a look at how they will view the 32 teams with at least a 10% chance to make the playoff.
Last year: 13-3, CFP semifinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +550
CFP ranking history: 28 appearances, highest at No. 2
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 83.9% | Win national title: 24.1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The Longhorns should be in — either as the SEC champ, or through an at-large bid. But ESPN’s FPI projects Texas will win every game, and that’s not going to happen with a first-time starting quarterback — no matter what his last name is. There’s an extraordinary amount of pressure on Arch Manning, and while he could lead the Longhorns to the SEC championship, he’s going to need some margin for error along the way. Texas will have four new starting offensive linemen, and it is replacing its top three pass catchers from last season. The Longhorns are a playoff team — but there are too many questions heading into the season opener against Ohio State to declare them a preseason No. 1.
Toughest test: Nov. 15 at Georgia. Yes, the season opener at Ohio State might be the biggest game of the year, but there will be plenty of time to make up for a loss. History tells us it’s better to lose early than late (See: Notre Dame vs. NIU). The Longhorns’ game at Georgia, though, comes at the most critical point in the season, when the conference standings and a guaranteed first-round CFP bye are within reach.
What the committee will like: Road wins. Texas has ample opportunities to impress the group with tough road wins at Ohio State, Georgia and Florida, plus its annual neutral-site game against rival Oklahoma. That’s the kind of lineup that will help separate the Longhorns from otherwise comparable teams.
What the committee won’t like: A weak September. If Texas loses at Ohio State, there won’t be anything to separate the Longhorns as a true contender heading into October. Texas would likely have a 3-1 September start in that scenario with home wins against San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston. Style points will matter, but only so much against unranked, overmatched non-power opponents. That could come back to haunt it in the committee meeting room as the rankings play out — especially if some SEC opponents such as Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Arkansas don’t finish as CFP top 25 teams.
Last year: 11-3, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +800
CFP ranking history: 54 appearances, highest at No. 1 (15 times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 78.6% | Win national title: 17.9%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Georgia is a playoff team that’s a coin flip with Texas to win the SEC. Like Texas, the Bulldogs will have a new starting quarterback and four new offensive linemen. If Georgia is going to repeat as SEC champs and advance deeper into the CFP bracket, though, its receivers have to be more dependable (last season Georgia led Power 4 conference teams in dropped passes) and the Bulldogs need to create more holes in the running game — especially to help out quarterback Gunner Stockton.
Toughest test: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. This is the only game on Georgia’s schedule that ESPN’s FPI gives the Bulldogs less than a 50% chance to win (49.5%).
What the committee will like: A September to remember. If Georgia can start 4-0 with wins against Tennessee and Alabama, the selection committee will remember those through Selection Day. It could also help Georgia earn a top-four seed even if the Bulldogs finish with one loss to Texas and don’t win the SEC. This assumes the Vols and Bama will finish as CFP top 25 opponents.
What the committee won’t like: Road upsets. Winning at Tennessee, Auburn and Mississippi State won’t be easy, but if Georgia is a true national title contender, it shouldn’t have a losing road record. The neutral-site game against rival Florida is also a chance to impress the committee away from Athens, but the reality is Georgia has only those three true road games — and should be the favorite on every trip. And three of Georgia’s home games are against non-power opponents Marshall, FCS team Austin Peay and Charlotte.
Last year: 14-2, CFP champion
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +550
CFP ranking history: 66 appearances, highest at No. 1 (five times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 70.6% | Win national title: 10.8%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Somewhat agree. The defending national champs are again a playoff-caliber team, but before handing them a first-round bye, consider how difficult Ohio State’s schedule is. In addition to the home season opener against Texas, Ohio State has road trips to Washington, Illinois, Wisconsin and rival Michigan — none of which are gimmes. The back-to-back October trips to Illinois and Wisconsin will be trickier than they appear on paper, and Washington should be a better team this fall in the second season under coach Jedd Fisch. ESPN analytics projects Ohio State’s lone regular-season loss will be at home in the season opener against Texas. But Penn State might have something to say about that on Nov. 1 in Columbus.
Toughest test: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. The Buckeyes will have a bye week to prepare for the game that will help determine a spot in the Big Ten championship. While the Big Ten winner will be guaranteed a spot in the playoff, it’s possible the runner-up could join the league champ in the selection committee’s top four and also get a first-round bye as a top-four seed. If Ohio State loses to Texas and Penn State, though — both at home — a bye would be in jeopardy.
What the committee will like: A November to remember. The committee’s first ranking will be released on Nov. 4 — right after Ohio State starts the month against Penn State. If the Buckeyes go 5-0 in November with two wins against CFP top 25 teams, it will help Ohio State compensate for a possible second loss. Ohio State could make a case as the committee’s top two-loss team if the Buckeyes lose to Texas and stumble elsewhere on the road. A close loss to a top 25 Illinois team might not be as bad as it sounds right now — as long as they recover in November.
What the committee won’t like: A second loss to an unranked opponent. It’s not that a team can’t overcome a bad loss, but it could mean the difference between a first-round bye and having to win four straight games to win the national title (again). The committee factors in everything — including where the game was played and how it was won or lost — but the caliber of opponent still matters. If Ohio State were to lose at Washington or Wisconsin, and neither of those teams finish in the CFP top 25, the committee could rank the Buckeyes behind another two-loss contender that suffered a better, close loss. Ohio State learned this last season when it sank four spots following its loss to unranked Michigan.
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +1100
CFP ranking history: 66 appearances, highest at No. 1 (24 times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 66.2% | Win national title: 10.8%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. The Tide will be better in Kalen DeBoer’s second season, but after a four-loss finish last fall, Alabama is going to have to play its way back into top-four contention. With a new starting quarterback and depth questions on the defensive line, Alabama needs to survive September before the playoff predictions begin.
Toughest test: Sept. 27 at Georgia. If DeBoer is going to get the Tide back to the top of the SEC — and back into the playoff — this would be the game to do it.
What the committee will like: The No. 10 schedule in the country. Alabama was the committee’s top three-loss team last season and ranked No. 11 on Selection Day — that was with bad losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. The committee will likely give the Tide some margin for error again considering an SEC lineup that includes trips to Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina, plus home games against Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma. And two of the first three nonconference opponents are against Power 5 teams Florida State and Wisconsin. At worst, Alabama should be 3-1 with a loss to Georgia heading into the heart of SEC play.
What the committee won’t like: Four losses? Alabama’s No. 11 ranking last season was evidence to the contrary of SEC commissioner Greg Sankey’s concerns about the committee not valuing the difficulty of playing in the SEC. Had ACC champion Clemson not bumped the Tide out of the playoff, Alabama would have slid into the field with two of the worst losses of the season. For Alabama to be excluded from the playoff again, it likely would have to land in that unlucky No. 11 or No. 12 spot and get bumped — or it would have to fail the eye test along the way.
Last year: 13-3, CFP semifinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +600
CFP ranking history: 42 appearances, highest at No. 3
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 63.8% | Win national title: 7%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. There’s no excuse for Penn State not to reach the playoff. Penn State can make a case for No. 1 this preseason because it has one thing no other team ranked above it has: a starting quarterback with playoff experience. The Nittany Lions might also have the best running back tandem in the country in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Plus, defensively, they hired one of the nation’s best coordinators in Jim Knowles, who left Ohio State to take the job. Coach James Franklin faces a burden of proof when it comes to beating the Buckeyes and elite opponents, but this is a roster talented enough to do it.
Toughest test: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. Penn State hasn’t won in Columbus in its past six tries. This might be the only ranked opponent the Nittany Lions face in November, when the selection committee is paying the closest attention. Penn State will have home-field advantage against Oregon on Sept. 27.
What the committee will like: A winning record against Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana. Penn State’s résumé is only as strong as its opponents’, and if the Nittany Lions fail to win at Ohio State (again), they might only have two wins against CFP top 25 teams — Oregon and Indiana (maybe?) — and both are home games. Penn State avoids Illinois and Michigan, which should be two of the league’s better teams this fall, so it needs to take advantage of the few opportunities it has against elite competition.
What the committee won’t like: A weak nonconference schedule. Wins against Nevada, FIU and Villanova aren’t going to help Penn State earn a first-round bye if the Nittany Lions are looking to earn a top-four seed as the Big Ten runner-up. If Penn State finishes as a two-loss team with no Big Ten title, it can still get into the playoff, but that September lineup will be scrutinized on Selection Day.
Last year: 13-1, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +1200
CFP ranking history: 44 appearances, highest at No. 1 (six times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 57.5% | Win national title: 4.3%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is still a talented playoff team, albeit with a vastly different composition than last season’s 13-1 group. Oregon ranks 107th in returning offensive production, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, but coach Dan Lanning lured in the program’s best freshman class. Nonconference games against rival Oregon State and Oklahoma State won’t be easy, but this is a manageable schedule that could land the Ducks back in the Big Ten title game.
Toughest test: Sept. 27 at Penn State. This is the only game that ESPN’s FPI gives Oregon less than a 50% chance to win. It’s a rematch of the 2024 Big Ten title game, but it’s in Happy Valley — at night. The head-to-head result will impact the committee’s ranking each week.
What the committee will like: Style points. If Oregon doesn’t win the Big Ten, it might be tough to earn a bye if the Ducks don’t have enough wins against top 25 opponents — unless they look like a dominant one- or two-loss team. It depends on what happens elsewhere. Last year, both Oregon and Penn State finished in the selection committee’s top four. This year, PSU has a chance to beat Ohio State during the regular season and Oregon does not. Instead, the Ducks will have to assert themselves against the likes of Indiana and Iowa.
What the committee won’t like: Upsets. It’s not that they can’t be overcome, but there’s not a lot of wiggle room in a schedule that might only include one or two CFP top 25 teams on Selection Day (Penn State, Indiana?). And this schedule has trap games all over it, including trips to Iowa and Washington.
Last year: 10-4, CFP 1st round
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +900
CFP ranking history: 60 appearances, highest at No. 1 (eight times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 47.3% | Win national title: 2.8%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Clemson was overrated heading into the 2024 season. Now it’s underrated. The Tigers’ offense is loaded, starting with much-improved quarterback Cade Klubnik and a deep receiver corps. Klubnik also has a veteran offensive line to work with, and the defensive line should be one of the best in the country. Clemson has a chance to not only win the ACC, but return to the top of the sport.
Toughest test: Nov. 29 at South Carolina. A true road game against a ranked in-state SEC rival tops everything else on the schedule as far as difficulty. ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson a slim 51.9% chance of winning.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the SEC. Head-to-head wins are one of several tiebreakers the committee uses, and a season-opening win against LSU and a win at South Carolina to end the regular season would separate Clemson from other elite contenders — including in the SEC. If by chance one of those teams wins the SEC, there might not be a bigger trump card in the committee meeting room.
What the committee won’t like: No wins against ranked ACC teams. If Clemson doesn’t go 2-0 against the SEC, this could be an issue. Clemson doesn’t face Miami during the regular season, but SMU and Louisville could be top 25 opponents — and maybe Syracuse or Georgia Tech sneak in. Nobody knows what to expect from the Bill Belichick experiment at North Carolina. If Clemson is going to make a deep run into the playoff, though, or have a chance at a bye, it shouldn’t lose to Louisville again. The Tigers were fortunate to beat SMU in last year’s ACC title game, and they shouldn’t lose to the Mustangs at home this year. If Clemson returns to the ACC championship game and loses to Miami, it can still reach the playoff as an at-large team, but a weak ACC schedule would be glaring in the committee meeting room.
Last year: 10-3
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +4000
CFP ranking history: 17 appearances, highest at No. 2
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 46.3% | Win national title: 2.7%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Miami has more to prove before it is taken seriously as a playoff contender — like winning the ACC. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes more than a 50% chance to win each game, but the season opener at home against Notre Dame will be the first indicator of Miami’s playoff potential. Miami has continued to find ways to flop in games it should win — and that was with Cam Ward, the eventual first overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft. If the Canes are going to win a title of any kind this fall, the defense will have to do its part and help an offense now led by former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck. The selection committee noticed the porous defense last season, and that was a critical component that kept them out of the playoff.
Toughest test: Nov. 1 at SMU. Yes, the Notre Dame game will be huge as far as the national spotlight and playoff implications, but the Canes at least have home-field advantage. Miami doesn’t leave its home state until it goes to SMU. Traveling to Texas for a conference game to face the ACC runners-up right before the first CFP ranking is released is another glaring opportunity for the Canes to stumble.
What the committee will like: An unofficial state championship. If Miami isn’t going to leave its own state until November, it would help the Canes to own it. Miami’s only road trip before November is on Oct. 4 at Florida State. The Canes will have home-field advantage against three of their toughest opponents: Notre Dame, Florida and Louisville. A winning record against them will boost Miami’s chances in the committee meeting room. If the Canes can go 3-0 against their in-state opponents, including South Florida (Sept. 13) and Florida (Sept. 20), it would help ease the blow of a close home loss to Notre Dame — or Louisville. Two home losses before heading to SMU, though, would put Miami’s playoff hopes on the brink.
What the committee won’t like: Late road losses. Miami ends the season with back-to-back road trips to Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh — two opponents capable of playing spoiler. If both teams are outside the committee’s top 25, a loss to one or both could come back to haunt the Canes if they don’t win the ACC and are jockeying for an at-large bid.
Last year: 14-2, CFP championship game
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +1100
CFP ranking history: 55 appearances, highest at No. 2 (four times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 45.6% | Win national title: 2.7%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Notre Dame has one of the best running back tandems in the country with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, but the Irish will have a new starting quarterback for the sixth straight season. With two SEC opponents, a regular-season rivalry game against USC, a trip to Miami, and a home game against a Group of 5 CFP contender in Boise State, this is a schedule tailor-made to impress the committee — or knock the Irish out.
Toughest test: Aug. 31 at Miami. ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 56.2% chance to win — the only opponent it doesn’t predict Notre Dame to beat. The Canes will have the edge in quarterback experience with Beck, but both teams have questions in their secondary. If Notre Dame beats the eventual ACC champs, a head-to-head win in the season opener would increase in value on Selection Day.
What the committee will like: Two wins against conference champs. If Miami and Boise State both win their leagues, Notre Dame could have wins against the ACC and Mountain West Conference champs, respectively. In theory, the Irish could have even more if Navy wins the American Athletic Conference, but for now, Miami and Boise State are the most likely options. That’s a significant accomplishment for the Irish, who as an independent can’t win a conference title, and it gives the committee an added comparison point — not to mention a head-to-head tiebreaker over teams that could be in the running for a first-round bye.
What the committee won’t like: Another bad loss. Last year’s home loss to Northern Illinois stuck with some committee members through the entire season, and while the Irish were able to ultimately overcome it, there was no margin for error. In each of the past three seasons, Notre Dame has dropped a game it shouldn’t have (2022 Marshall, 2023 Louisville, 2024 Northern Illinois). With no conference championship to guarantee Notre Dame a spot in the field, its only path is an at-large bid, and losing to Purdue or Stanford isn’t the way to earn one.
Last year: 10-3, CFP first round
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +6000
CFP ranking history: 24 appearances, highest at No. 1
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 38.5% | Win national title: 2.3%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. This is too high for the Vols, who return just 39% of their offense from last season’s playoff team (110th in the FBS). With former quarterback Nico Iamaleava at UCLA, and running back Dylan Sampson and the top three receivers from last season also gone, this team’s entire offensive identity is a question mark. The season opener against Syracuse in Atlanta is hardly a gimme to start the nation’s 15th-most difficult schedule.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Alabama. Yes, the Sept. 13 game against Georgia is probably a tougher opponent, but going to Tuscaloosa to face Bama could mean a second loss before November. And that’s with Oklahoma and a trip to the Swamp still looming. ESPN’s FPI gives Alabama a 71.9% chance to win.
What the committee will like: Avoid going 0-2 against Bama and Georgia. This is the kind of schedule that helped Alabama finish as the committee’s top three-loss team last fall. The Tide had wins against Georgia, LSU and South Carolina, and that helped them stay in contention even with bad losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. If Tennessee can do the same, and earn two or three statement wins, it might be able to earn some forgiveness in the committee room for multiple slip-ups elsewhere.
What the committee won’t like: Unconvincing wins. While there are plenty of opportunities for Tennessee to impress the committee against elite competition, the Vols need to look the part of a playoff team against the likes of Syracuse, East Tennessee State, UAB, Mississippi State and New Mexico State. Losses to highly ranked teams can be forgiven, but if this new-look Tennessee offense doesn’t impress the committee on film against teams it should beat, the Vols could struggle to earn one of those at-large bids.
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +4000
CFP ranking history: 24 appearances, highest at No. 4
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 34.3% | Win national title: 2.3%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. This is a lot of faith in a team that lost four of its final five games and needed a defensive overhaul. The Aggies can make the playoff as an at-large team, but having success against the nation’s ninth-toughest schedule will require significant improvement. That can be measured early with a Sept. 13 win against Notre Dame, a team that beat the Aggies at home last season.
Toughest test: Nov. 29 at Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives Texas an 80.4% chance to win this Friday night rivalry game in Austin, but if the Aggies pull off the upset, they might be able to claim a win against the eventual SEC champs.
What the committee will like: Marquee road wins. The Aggies’ best chances to impress the committee are trips to Notre Dame, LSU and Texas. Midseason trips to Arkansas and Missouri will also be difficult, and are part of a three-game road swing that will help define the Aggies’ place in the committee’s rankings. The committee would reward Texas A&M for a winning record in those five road games. That would mean Texas A&M beat at least one of the big three — Notre Dame, LSU or Texas — along with Arkansas and Missouri. The better they fare against those opponents, the more margin for error the committee might give them at home against Florida and South Carolina.
What the committee won’t like: Another November to forget. The only team Texas A&M beat last November was New Mexico State. Slow golf clap. If the Aggies are going to stay relevant, they’ve got to finish strong, punctuating their résumé with a win against someone other than Samford. Back-to-back wins at Mizzou and South Carolina would provide some wiggle room heading into Texas.
Last year: 10-3
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +5000
CFP ranking history: 34 appearances, highest at No. 4
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 30.7% | Win national title: 1.5%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is about right for a two-loss SEC team that can earn an at-large bid. Coach Lane Kiffin has had at least 10 wins in three of the past four seasons and can do it again. Ole Miss will have a new starting quarterback for the first time in three seasons following the departure of Jaxson Dart, but rookie Austin Simmons has fared well in limited time, and the Rebels should again have a talented group of receivers. The defense made significant strides it can continue to build on but is looking to replace the bulk of production up front.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Georgia. Ole Miss won this game at home last year 28-10, but it was unable to turn that into a playoff berth, adding a third loss in their next game at Florida. This time, the game is at Georgia, and ESPN’s FPI gives the Bulldogs an 80.6% chance to win.
What the committee will like: A Sept. 20 win against Tulane. Don’t sleep on the importance of beating the AAC champs — especially if they wind up being a playoff team as the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion. ESPN’s FPI currently gives Tulane a 45.4% chance to win the AAC, a significant lead over Memphis at 14.9%. A head-to-head win against a playoff team would earn Ole Miss credit on Selection Day.
What the committee won’t like: An October slide. The Rebels end the month with back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma, and ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss less than a 50% chance to beat both. If those are the only two games Ole Miss loses, it can still be a playoff team, but LSU and South Carolina are also on the schedule. If Ole Miss is going to finish as a two-loss team or better, there will be some pressure to be undefeated heading into late October.
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +1800
CFP ranking history: 47 appearances, highest at No. 1 (three times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff 30.3% | Win national title: 2.1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. This is the deepest, most complete team Brian Kelly has had at LSU, and he has said repeatedly it’s good enough to contend for the national title. LSU might have the best quarterback in the country in veteran Garrett Nussmeier, but he will work with four new starters on the offensive line. While the defense has much to prove, Kelly said the group is good enough to win the big games.
Toughest test: Aug. 30 at Clemson. The Tigers also have to travel to Ole Miss and Alabama, but neither of those opponents have a starting quarterback as experienced as Clemson’s Cade Klubnik. This season opener will give the winner an early edge in the committee meeting room because of a strong nonconference win against a ranked opponent.
What the committee will like: A winning road record. LSU has the 11th-toughest schedule in the country, and some of that has to do with trips to Clemson, Ole Miss, Vandy, Bama and Oklahoma. If LSU is going to get into the CFP as an at-large bid, the committee would have a hard time excluding the Tigers if they went at least 3-2 in those games. They should beat Vandy and OU if they’re a true playoff team, but that record would also assure at least one more win against another contender.
What the committee won’t like: A loss to Clemson. If LSU doesn’t win, its nonconference résumé will likely be 3-1 with wins against Louisiana Tech, Southeast Louisiana and Western Kentucky. Clemson’s head-to-head win would also give it one of several tiebreakers the committee uses to help separate otherwise comparable teams. It’s not that LSU can’t overcome a tough season-opening road loss to what could be the ACC champs — but it will be under pressure to earn statement wins that won’t be any easier. ESPN’s FPI currently gives LSU less than a 50% chance to win its games against Clemson, Ole Miss and Alabama.
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +3000
CFP ranking history: 42 appearances, highest at No. 1
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 25.3% Win national title: 1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Michigan should be better than last year’s 8-5 finish, but by how much? There are more questions than answers heading into the season opener against New Mexico, starting at the top. Coach Sherrone Moore is expected to be suspended for two games as part of the self-imposed sanctions for the Connor Stalions advanced scouting scandal. It’s also still unclear if talented freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood will lead the offense from Day 1.
Toughest test: Nov. 29 vs. Ohio State. Michigan couldn’t possibly beat the defending national champs a fifth straight time … could it?
What the committee will like: A Sept. 6 win at Oklahoma. The Sooners are a borderline top 25 team, but as long as they have a respectable season above .500, the committee will reward Michigan for a road win against an SEC team through Selection Day. This is also one of the few opportunities Michigan has to impress the committee with a road win against a ranked opponent.
What the committee won’t like: Only one win against a ranked opponent. If the Sooners don’t crack the top 25, it’s possible that Ohio State will be the only ranked opponent Michigan faces this season. The Wolverines avoid both Penn State and Oregon. It’s also possible Michigan earns a win against a ranked Oklahoma team — but loses to Ohio State. While the committee does appreciate wins against teams above .500, other contenders with multiple wins against CFP top 25 opponents will likely have an edge in the rankings.
Last year: 12-2, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 26 appearances, highest at No. 9
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 25.2% | Win national title: .1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Boise State should have the best chances of any Group of 5 team to earn a spot as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. According to ESPN Analytics, Boise State has the best chance of any team in the country to win its league (45.6%). The Broncos also rank No. 13 in returning production (67%), according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Quarterback Maddux Madsen will have a veteran offensive line in front of him, and the defense should remain one of the best in the Mountain West.
Toughest test: Oct. 4 at Notre Dame. This is the only opponent ESPN’s FPI gives Boise State less than a 50% chance to beat. It’s the first real opportunity to determine whether Boise State can still hang with the nation’s elite without Ashton Jeanty.
What the committee will like: A close game against the Irish. The committee pays attention to how teams lose, and if Boise State can take the Irish to the wire on their home turf, that’s the kind of performance that the group will remember on Selection Day. The same thing happened last season, when Oregon beat Boise State 37-34 at home. Even though it was a loss, the committee held the Broncos in high regard for pushing the eventual Big Ten champs to the limit.
What the committee won’t like: The No. 81 schedule strength. Boise State has what should be a fun, entertaining lineup, but it’s not going to do the Broncos any favors if they don’t win their conference — and that’s not a given. UNLV will again be right on their heels, this time under coach Dan Mullen. Boise State needs to hope that one or two of its opponents — maybe UNLV, App State or San Jose State — sneak into the committee’s top 25 to help boost its résumé. It would be an interesting debate if Boise State beat Notre Dame but didn’t win the MWC. That head-to-head tiebreaker would loom large in the room, but if both teams finish with one loss, Notre Dame’s No. 38 schedule could nullify it on Selection Day, preventing an at-large bid in spite of one of the best wins in the country.
Last year: 9-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 14 appearances, highest at No. 16
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 24.3% | Win national title: .2%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Someone from the Group of 5 is going to make the CFP, and it’s most likely going to be the champion from either the Mountain West Conference or the American. Tulane has the best shot to win the latter, at least on paper this preseason, but Memphis will be its biggest challenger.
Toughest test: Sept. 20 at Ole Miss. The Green Wave will again have a chance to impress the committee with a tough nonconference game after coming up painfully short against Kansas State and Oklahoma last season. ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss a 78.1% chance to win — the only opponent Tulane has less than a 50% chance of beating.
What the committee will like: Style points. Tulane and Boise State have similar schedules (Boise State is No. 81 and Tulane is No. 86). There’s no difference in that gap in the committee meeting room, which means that if both of them win their respective conferences — and lose to the toughest nonconference opponents — the deciding factor will simply be who has played consistently better all season. This doesn’t mean Tulane has to run up the score (the committee doesn’t incentivize margin of victory) — but it does need a strong showing against the likes of Army and Memphis.
What the committee won’t like: A home loss to Duke or Northwestern. If the committee is going to reward Tulane with a playoff spot, some people in that room will have a hard time voting the Green Wave ahead of the Mountain West champ with a home loss to Duke or Northwestern. Yes, Duke is coming off a respectable 9-4 season and is trending up with coach Manny Diaz, but if Boise State finishes with one loss (Notre Dame) and Tulane has two (Ole Miss and Duke), the committee’s choice seems obvious.
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: 24 appearances, highest at No. 7
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 22.2% | Win national title: .4%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The reality is the Big 12 is once again the most wide-open race in the FBS, but with quarterback Avery Johnson returning for his second season as the starter, expectations are high. According to ESPN’s FPI, K-State has a 19.9% chance to win the Big 12, a slight edge over defending champ Arizona State (13%). It’s not impossible for the Big 12 to get two playoff teams in, but the most likely scenario for the second team is as the league runner-up in a close loss — similar to what happened with SMU last year in the ACC.
Toughest test: Oct. 25 at Kansas. An in-state rival on the road during the heart of the season will have implications on the Big 12 standings and in turn the CFP race. ESPN’s FPI gives K-State a 52.1% chance to win. The Wildcats escaped with a two-point win last year.
What the committee will like: A season-opening win against Iowa State in Dublin. The Cyclones are capable of winning the Big 12, and if K-State can knock them off in the season opener, it could help alleviate the blow of a loss in the Big 12 title game if they meet again. K-State would be able to claim a regular-season win against the conference champs. That’s a résumé booster that has helped teams before in the committee meeting room.
What the committee won’t like: No statement wins. If K-State doesn’t beat Iowa State, it might not have a win against a ranked team on its résumé. The Wildcats don’t face Arizona State or BYU during the regular season. Texas Tech could play its way into the top 25 and even make a run at the Big 12 title, and Kansas could as well, but there’s no headliner in the lineup to help separate K-State from another comparable contender.
Last year: 5-7
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +7500
CFP ranking history: 29 appearances, highest at No. 2
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21.8% | Win national title: 1.1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Auburn might be one of the most improved teams in the country, but it might not show in wins against the nation’s 14th-toughest schedule. Auburn could still be a four-loss team (Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama), and while that would be its best finish under coach Hugh Freeze, it’s unlikely to make the cut for the 12-team field.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 vs. Georgia. There’s still a significant gap between these two programs, and it’s up to the Auburn offense to close it. The Tigers averaged 13.3 points in their seven losses last fall, and they’ll need stronger quarterback play to have a chance against Georgia, which won 31-13 last year.
What the committee will like: An Iron Bowl win. Beating rival Alabama in the regular-season finale could be a critical head-to-head tiebreaker if both teams finish with the same record and are on the bubble. It’s not unreasonable for both Alabama and Auburn to finish with three losses this fall — but it’s also possible that Alabama earns a spot in the SEC title game. Auburn will have home-field advantage against the Tide, and a win would leave a lasting impression, especially if Alabama has a chance to win the SEC.
What the committee won’t like: Bad losses. Auburn lost to Cal and Arkansas last season, two unranked teams that both finished with at least six losses. If Auburn is going to have any shot as an at-large CFP team, it has to avoid similar traps.
Last year: 11-3
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: Four appearances, highest at No. 20
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21.3% | Win national title: .1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is the right spot for UNLV, which can earn a spot in the playoff as the Mountain West Conference champion but is still looking up at Boise State until it proves otherwise.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Boise State. This is the only opponent ESPN’s FPI projects will beat UNLV, giving the Broncos a 59.8% chance to win. Last year, UNLV lost twice to Boise State — first during the regular season, and again in the MWC title game.
What the committee will like: Coach Dan Mullen. In a room filled with sitting athletic directors, former coaches and players, Mullen is a proven coaching commodity who will bring continued credibility to the sideline. He has lured in a roster filled with former blue-chippers and/or signees from power conferences. If he can translate that into some style points against weaker competition, it will help. UNLV will need to leave no doubt it’s the better team against the likes of Idaho State, Sam Houston, Wyoming and Nevada.
What the committee won’t like: The nation’s 113th strength of schedule. Any way you slice it, UNLV has to win the Mountain West to reach the CFP. A nonconference win against UCLA could help — maybe — but a Tulane win against Oklahoma would be better, and that would be a part of the conversation if the committee were comparing Tulane and UNLV as conference champs.
Last year: 11-3, CFP first round
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: Nine appearances, highest at No. 8
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21.1% | Win national title: .5%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is about right for the Mustangs, who should be sitting behind Clemson and Miami when it comes to representing the ACC in the playoff this fall. SMU will face them both, though, during the regular season and have a chance to prove otherwise.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Clemson. SMU came within a 56-yard field goal of winning the ACC title in its first season as a member of the conference, but this will be different. It’s on Clemson’s turf, and the Tigers are loaded with elite talent and veteran experience. Clemson will already have been challenged in its season opener against LSU, while this will likely be the first ranked opponent SMU will face.
What the committee will like: At least split with Clemson and Miami. SMU didn’t face either of them during the regular season last year, which was a major criticism of the Mustangs’ inclusion into the CFP. SMU can quiet some of its naysayers and impress the committee by avoiding an 0-2 record against the ACC’s two favorites. If SMU can steal one of those wins and return to the ACC title game, it will have a chance at returning to the CFP as an at-large team as the ACC runner-up. SMU’s schedule is average — No. 43 — but it’s significantly behind the SEC, which owns 15 of the nation’s 16 most difficult schedules. That will matter if SMU is trying to edge out an SEC team with more losses for an at-large bid. Clemson and Miami are SMU’s two best opportunities to impress the committee against ranked CFP contenders.
What the committee won’t like: A rerun of the first half of the 2024 ACC championship game. SMU played poorly in the first half of the ACC title game against Clemson and was a half a game away from being excluded from the CFP last year. Had the Mustangs not redeemed themselves with a respectable second half and near win, they would have been out. SMU went on to lose convincingly to Penn State in the first round of the playoff. Although the selection committee members insist they start with a “blank slate” each year and each week, they’re also human — and the finish last season will be hard to forget. Quarterback Kevin Jennings, who returns, threw three interceptions — including two returned for touchdowns — in the CFP loss to Penn State. If SMU doesn’t win the ACC, it’s going to need to consistently look like a playoff team to return.
Last year: 7-6
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +10000
CFP ranking history: 33 appearances, highest at No. 4
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21% | Win national title: .4%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. USC is a borderline at-large CFP team that’s going to have two tough road trips to rival Notre Dame and Oregon. If those are the Ducks’ only two losses, it’s hard to imagine the committee excluding the Trojans, but right now USC has much to prove after last year’s 7-6 finish.
Toughest test: Nov. 22 at Oregon. This earned a small edge over the game in South Bend simply because of the Big Ten implications. Both Oregon and USC should be looking up at Ohio State and Penn State in the league standings, but the Ducks will be looking to protect their shot at returning to the Big Ten title game, and Autzen Stadium will be unforgiving.
What the committee will like: A head-to-head win against the Irish. It’s one of the tiebreakers the committee uses to separate teams with comparable records, and if Notre Dame and USC are both competing for an at-large bid, this result will be critical.
What the committee won’t like: No statement road wins. A win against Purdue isn’t going to do USC any favors, but unless the Trojans show some significant improvement from 2024, it might be the only road win they get. USC also travels to Illinois, Notre Dame, Nebraska and Oregon. Not one of those is a guarantee. Nebraska finished with its first winning season since 2016 last year. If Nebraska and Purdue are the Trojans’ only road wins, they need to hope the committee thinks highly of those opponents. The Huskers could be a surprise success in the Big Ten. These road trips could either help USC tremendously — or knock the Trojans out entirely.
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +7500
CFP ranking history: Seven appearances, highest at No. 14
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff 20.3% | Win national title: 1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. The Gamecocks have the nation’s 13th-most difficult schedule, but this is probably also the most equipped the program has been to deal with it. Redshirt sophomore quarterback LaNorris Sellers is just scratching the surface of his talent, and the defensive front seven should remain one of the SEC’s best. South Carolina was on the brink of the CFP last season and is one statement win away from reaching it.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 at LSU. The season opener against Virginia Tech is by no means a gimme, but if South Carolina is a playoff team, it should enter Baton Rouge undefeated. In addition to being one of the most difficult places to win in the country, this trip will give the committee a critical head-to-head result to consider, along with an edge in the SEC standings.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the ACC. It was surprising — and controversial — last year that the committee didn’t give South Carolina more credit for beating eventual ACC champion Clemson. Historically, that has played a role in its Selection Day deliberations. This year, the expectations are even higher for Clemson, which is talented enough to repeat as ACC champs and make a deeper CFP run beyond the first round. If the committee has Clemson ranked higher than its No. 16 finish in 2024, and Virginia Tech finishes above .500, it will give South Carolina a stronger boost on Selection Day.
What the committee won’t like: Another 0-3 record against LSU, Bama and Ole Miss. South Carolina lost to LSU and Alabama last year by a combined five points. It still wasn’t enough for an at-large bid, as the Gamecocks finished No. 15 on Selection Day. Winning those games would obviously change that. South Carolina was stuck behind both Bama and Ole Miss because the committee continued to honor the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Last year: 6-7
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +6000
CFP ranking history: 52 appearances, highest at No. 2
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 18.4% | Win national title: .8%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The Sooners have lots to prove in their second season in the SEC after a 6-7 finish that was punctuated with a bowl loss to Navy. They’re a fringe contender in desperate need of an offensive answer after finishing next to last in the SEC in scoring offense (24 points per game). With a new offensive coordinator and quarterback, and coach Brent Venables now calling the plays on defense, it’s time to see if the overhaul pays off in Year 4 for Venables.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 vs. Texas. The rival Longhorns are the SEC favorites, and ESPN’s FPI gives Texas an 82.9% chance to win this game. It will reveal the gap between the two storied programs and how far the Sooners have to go to return to playoff relevance.
What the committee will like: Look like an SEC team. Let’s start with the basics. Somehow, the only thing Oklahoma won in the SEC last year was the unofficial Iron Bowl, beating both Alabama and Auburn — but nobody else in the conference. While the committee members will say repeatedly they rank teams, not conferences, their past rankings indicate a high regard for the SEC (Alabama was the top three-loss team last year). If OU is going to join that club, though, the Sooners have to start looking the part of an SEC school.
What the committee won’t like: A Sept. 6 home loss to Michigan. It’s the only nonconference opportunity against a Power 4 opponent to impress the committee. Wins against Illinois State, Temple and Kent State won’t help the Sooners overcome any SEC losses. A win against Michigan could be a CFP top 25 win, and the head-to-head result could be a significant tiebreaker if they’re both competing for an at-large bid.
Last year: 11-3, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: 10 appearances, highest at No. 6
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 16.1% | Win national title: .2%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Where’s the computer love for the defending Big 12 champs?! The Sun Devils return 79% of last year’s production, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. This is a team that should start the season on the bubble of the bracket — not the top 25. Quarterback Sam Leavitt and receiver Jordyn Tyson are potential first-round NFL draft picks, and 10 starters return from a defense that led the league in run defense (112.9 yards) and was No. 3 in scoring defense (22.6 points).
Toughest test: Nov. 1 at Iowa State. Ames is a notoriously tricky place to win, and this game will be important for both Big 12 and CFP standings. Last year, ASU beat Iowa State 45-10 to win the Big 12 title and earn the league’s lone CFP spot.
What the committee will like: A Big 12 title. It’s going to be difficult (again) for the Big 12 runner-up to secure a second CFP spot unless it’s a lights-out, no-brainer pick, and it’s going to be difficult for ASU to prove that with the nation’s No. 73 schedule strength — especially when so many SEC teams’ schedules are ranked among the top 15. Arizona State will have some opponents sneak into the CFP top 25, and the committee respects wins against good teams — even if they’re not ranked — but it will also give the edge to contenders that have better statement wins against a more rigorous schedule.
What the committee won’t like: A loss to Mississippi State. Don’t let the SEC label fool you. ASU beat the 2-10 Bulldogs last year and should do it again if it’s a true playoff team. A loss would mean no Power 4 nonconference wins, as the rest of the schedule includes Northern Arizona and Texas State. There’s also upset potential at Baylor to end September, and that would be a devastating start for a program aiming for history.
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +4000
CFP ranking history: 28 appearances, highest at No. 6 (three times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 14.5% | Win national title: .7%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Florida might have the best quarterback in the country in DJ Lagway, but it also has the most difficult schedule in the FBS. Again. The Gators are a long shot to win the SEC, and their chances of earning an at-large bid hinge on their ability to beat a lineup comprised mainly of top-25 teams.
Toughest test: Nov. 1 vs. Georgia. The Gators also have to face Texas in October, but the history between the Gators and Bulldogs runs deep. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 79.7% chance to win. Florida lost to both Georgia and Texas last year in back-to-back weeks. This year, the Gators have a bye week to prepare for Georgia.
What the committee will like: A Sept. 20 road win against Miami. The committee factors in the intangibles of rivalry games, and an in-state win against what should be a ranked Canes team would earn Florida some credit in the room. It could increase in value if Miami wins the ACC and clinches a spot in the playoff as one of the committee’s five highest-ranked conference champs. Even if Miami doesn’t win the ACC, the head-to-head tiebreaker could be a factor in the room if both teams are competing for an at-large spot. This is also the kind of nonconference win that could help separate Florida from the Big 12 runner-up if they’re competing for an at-large spot.
What the committee won’t like: An injury to Lagway. His health is critical to the team’s success, and the committee considers injuries to key players — which is why undefeated Florida State didn’t make the CFP in 2023 as the ACC champ. That’s not to say that Florida couldn’t make the playoff without Lagway — in 2014 Ohio State won the national title with its third-string quarterback. But the Gators would have to prove to the committee that they still look like a playoff team with Lagway sidelined. He has already dealt with a shoulder injury, a lower body injury and a hamstring injury during his career.
Last year: 5-7
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: Three appearances, highest at No. 16
ESPN Analytics
Make the playoff: 13.4% | Win national title: .1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Kansas’ only role in the CFP last year was as a spoiler, knocking off three CFP-ranked opponents (Iowa State, BYU and Colorado) in consecutive weeks. It was too little, too late, though, and Kansas finished 5-7. Although the Jayhawks can build on their 3-1 finish and contend to win a wide-open Big 12, Kansas has to show more consistency before being taken seriously as an at-large possibility.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have poured booster money into their NIL collective, quietly building a roster capable of surprising the Big 12 favorites. It certainly won’t be easy for Kansas to go into Mizzou on Sept. 6 and win, but the mid-October trip to Lubbock will have bigger postseason implications.
What the committee will like: A Sept. 6 win at Missouri. The Tigers are a fringe top-25 team, but their defense last year was one of the best in the FBS. If Mizzou can navigate offseason turnover on offense and have a respectable season — which it should — this could be a significant SEC road win for Kansas’ résumé.
What the committee won’t like: Any doubt. Kansas has little if any margin for error if it doesn’t win the Big 12. In addition to beating the Big 12’s best, the Jayhawks need to do what they couldn’t last year — avoid upsets and look like a playoff team against unranked competition.
Last year: 11-2
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +30000
CFP ranking history: 17 appearances, highest at No. 6
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 12.6% | Win national title: .1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Because BYU has a strong chance to win the Big 12, it should be higher on this list — but how much higher depends on how the Cougars look without quarterback Jake Retzlaff. The Cougars still return their leading rusher, LJ Martin, and wide receiver Chase Roberts, who had over 850 yards and four touchdowns last year. BYU’s defense was also one of the best in the country last year at snagging turnovers. The returning talent will help ease the transition of whoever replaces Retzlaff as the starter.
Toughest test: Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. The Cougars will have a bye week to prepare for this, but it’s still the second straight tough road trip following the Oct. 25 game at Iowa State. ESPN’s FPI projects BYU to lose both of those games, but if the Cougars can’t win in Ames, the trip to Texas Tech becomes even more consequential.
What the committee will like: One loss or better. BYU finished 10-2 last year, good enough for No. 17 on Selection Day. BYU probably has to win the Big 12 to earn a playoff spot, and it can’t lose to an opponent it’s supposed to beat (such as unranked Kansas last year). If BYU is going to have any shot at an at-large bid, its ideal scenario would be as a one-loss Big 12 runner-up, with the lone loss coming in the conference championship game. If BYU finishes with two losses, though, and no Big 12 title, it’s probably going to land where it did last year — in a regular bowl game.
What the committee won’t like: The nonconference schedule. BYU starts September against Portland State, Stanford and East Carolina — none of which will help the Cougars’ playoff résumé. BYU has the No. 74 schedule in the country, and while the September slate might be ideal to break in a new starting quarterback, an early loss or ugly win to an unranked opponent will still be remembered in the committee meeting room.
Last year: 6-7
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 10 appearances, highest at No. 13
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 12.5% | Win national title: .2%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Until proved otherwise, everyone in the ACC is looking up at Clemson, Miami and SMU. Virginia Tech has a chance to surprise some people, but it fell below expectations last year and has even more questions heading into this season after 24 players entered the transfer portal and others moved on to the NFL.
Toughest test: Aug. 31 vs. South Carolina. Yes, the Hokies will have had all summer to prepare for their most difficult game of the regular season, but so will the Gamecocks, who are leading the race between the two programs to reach the CFP for the first time. ESPN’s FPI gives South Carolina a 65.7% chance to win. There are also personal ties involved, as South Carolina coach Shane Beamer’s father, Frank, was the longtime head coach of the Hokies, where the younger Beamer was also a former assistant.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the SEC. A week after opening with the neutral site game against South Carolina, Virginia Tech hosts Vanderbilt, a much-improved SEC team that’s no longer a gimme. If the Hokies can win both of those games, it will compensate for the following two weeks against Old Dominion and Wofford. Those head-to-head results could also factor in as tiebreakers if any of the teams are in contention for an at-large bid and have similar records.
What the committee won’t like: A three-loss ACC team without a title. Considering three-loss Alabama was the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team last year (and still didn’t make the playoff at No. 11 on Selection Day), there’s even less margin for error in the ACC. If Virginia Tech loses to South Carolina, at Georgia Tech and against Miami, its playoff hopes are over without an ACC title. There are enough opportunities to impress the committee, but if Virginia Tech can’t manage a winning record against its ranked opponents, it’s going to be a hard sell in the room without winning the league.
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: 26 appearances, highest at No. 5
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.5% | Win national title: .2%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Baylor is a team that can be in the conversation in November simply because it can win the Big 12. Coach Dave Aranda said this is his best team, and the Bears are poised to build off a strong finish to 2024. Still, Baylor will have to play its way into the committee’s top 25 before it’s taken seriously in the race.
Toughest test: Sept. 6 at SMU. This is a difficult in-state trip against the ACC runner-up, as ESPN’s FPI gives SMU a 65.3% chance to win.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 start. If Baylor beats Auburn and SMU — two games ESPN’s FPI projects it will lose — the Bears’ playoff stock will rise immediately. With two nonconference wins against Power 4 opponents, Baylor will separate from other contenders who played a weaker lineup — including in the Big 12. There’s also the slim possibility that Auburn or SMU is competing with Baylor for an at-large spot, and that head-to-head win would tilt at least one major tiebreaker in the Bears’ favor.
What the committee won’t like: A November fade. Baylor’s schedule is frontloaded with opportunities to impress the committee, including league matchups against favorites Arizona State and K-State. That leaves a lull, though, in the backstretch, which might not include one ranked opponent over the span of the final six games. That’s also when the rankings are in full swing, and the committee is the most dialed in. Historically, it’s been easier for teams to overcome early losses than late ones. A loss to an unranked league opponent would damage the Bears’ résumé at a critical point in the committee’s deliberations.
Last year: 7-6
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: Eight appearances, highest at No. 10
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.3% | Win national title: .1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Nebraska should take another step forward this fall, but even a three-loss Huskers team is a long shot for an at-large bid. Nebraska lost six games a year ago and is still trailing Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon in the CFP race. It might also be looking up at Michigan, depending on the outcome of the Sept. 20 game.
Toughest test: Nov. 22 at Penn State. Nebraska avoids Ohio State and Oregon this year, leaving the road trip to Happy Valley easily the most difficult game. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State an 83.2% chance to win.
What the committee will like: A strong showing at home. Even if Nebraska loses at Penn State, the Huskers have plenty of chances at home to boost their playoff résumé, starting with the Michigan game. If Nebraska can win that one, it will have a strong chance to be undefeated heading into November against USC. That would make Nebraska relevant when it matters the most and give the Huskers some margin for error. Nebraska also ends the season at home on a Friday against Iowa. Home wins against Michigan, USC and Iowa would put the Huskers in the conversation.
What the committee won’t like: The nonconference schedule. Wins against Cincinnati, Akron and Houston Christian aren’t going to help Nebraska’s playoff résumé, especially if the Huskers are looking for an at-large bid.
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 25 appearances, highest at No. 3 (three times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.3% | Win national title: .2%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. It’s hard to believe this program played for the national title as recently as 2022. The Horned Frogs are again a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 team trying to build off last year’s 9-4 finish. The staff lured in the league’s top-rated recruiting class, but it’s going to take some time to translate. Until TCU plays its way into the CFP top 25, this is the right spot for the Frogs.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 at Kansas State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Wildcats a 63.3% chance to win.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the ACC. The season opener at UNC will be a fascinating Labor Day coaching matchup between Bill Belichick and TCU’s Sonny Dykes. It’s impossible to tell how UNC’s season will unfold — a win in Chapel Hill might not amount to anything in the committee meeting room come Selection Day if the Tar Heels don’t put together a respectable season. If they do, though, and TCU also earns a home win against 2024 ACC runner-up SMU, it could help the committee determine whether the ACC or Big 12 might be more deserving of a second team.
What the committee won’t like: Road woes. If TCU is going to make a run at the Big 12 title, it’s going to have to beat the league’s best on the road. Trips to Arizona State, K-State and BYU will help determine the league leader, and TCU will need a winning record against them to stay in the mix.
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +10000
CFP ranking history: N/A
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.3% Win national title: .1%
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. The Red Raiders are a CFP sleeper team, but not as far from a shot as the computers indicate. The program spent more than $10 million to sign 17 new players, including seven on the offensive and defensive lines. The defense has been under construction after allowing at least 35 points in each of its five losses last year, but with improvement and the return of quarterback Behren Morton, Texas Tech can contend for the Big 12 title — and in turn a spot in the CFP.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Arizona State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Sun Devils a 61.2% chance to win. The defending Big 12 champs return 79% of their total production from last season, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against Arizona State and Kansas State. They’re both likely to be CFP top 25 teams, and beating them on the road would position Texas Tech at or near the top of the Big 12 standings.
What the committee won’t like: A September stumble. If Texas Tech is going to be taken seriously as a CFP contender, it should go undefeated in September. The Sept. 20 trip to Utah will be the toughest game of the month, but the Red Raiders can’t afford a Week 3 upset to Oregon State, either. The committee members won’t be wowed by home wins against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State or Oregon State — but they won’t forget losses to any of them. While a road loss to Utah isn’t horrible, it would put Texas Tech in a hole before the Red Raiders travel to ASU and K-State later in the season.
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Seth Wickersham
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Seth Wickersham
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior Writer for ESPN.com and ESPN The Magazine
- Joined ESPN The Magazine after graduating from the University of Missouri.
- Although he primarily covers the NFL, his assignments also have taken him to the Athens Olympics, the World Series, the NCAA tournament and the NHL and NBA playoffs.
Stanford is set to hire former Nike CEO John Donahoe as the school’s new athletic director, sources told ESPN on Thursday.
Donahoe, 65, will arrive in the collegiate athletic director space with a vast swath of business experience, as Stanford officials viewed him as a “unicorn candidate” because of both his business ties and history at the school. Stanford coveted a nontraditional candidate for the role, and Donahoe’s hire delivers a seasoned CEO with stints at Nike, Bain & Company and eBay. He also served as the board chair of PayPal.
Donahoe also brings strong Stanford ties, as he’s a 1986 MBA graduate. He has also had two stints on the Stanford business school’s advisory board, including currently serving in that role.
Donahoe replaces Bernard Muir, who announced in February he was stepping down from the school after serving in that role since 2012. Alden Mitchell has been working as the school’s interim athletic director.
The hire is a head-turning one for Stanford, bringing in someone with Donahoe’s high-level business experience. And it comes at a time when the athletic department has struggled in its highest profile sports, as football is amid four consecutive 3-9 seasons and the men’s basketball team hasn’t reached the NCAA tournament since 2014.
In hiring Donahoe, they are aiming for someone who can find an innovative way to support general manager Andrew Luck and the Stanford football program while also figuring out a sustainable model for the future of Stanford’s Olympic sports.
Stanford’s Olympic sports remain the best in the country, as Stanford athletes or former athletes accounted for 39 medals in the 2024 Paris Olympics. If Stanford were a country, they would have tied with Canada for the 11th most medals. (Stanford has also won 26 of the possible 31 director’s cups for overall athletic success in college, including a 25-year streak from 1995 to 2019.)
Stanford officials approached Donahoe in recent weeks about the position, with both President Jonathan Levin and former women’s basketball coach Tara VanDerveer among the chief recruiters. Donahoe has a long-standing relationship with both, as he maintained strong ties to the school throughout his career.
Per ESPN sources, Luck will report to Donahoe in this role. Luck spent time with him in the interview process and is excited to work with him, per sources. (That’s a change from the prior structure, as upon Luck’s hiring he had been slated to report to Levin.)
Stanford is set to begin a football season in which it is picked last in the 17-team ACC. Former NFL coach Frank Reich is the interim coach, and both sides have made clear this is a definitive interim situation and he won’t return after the 2025 season.
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