The Detroit Tigers were going nowhere on Aug. 10, 2024, headed for another losing season, which would have been their eighth in a row, and their 10th consecutive non-playoff season. They were 55-63, 10 games out of the third wild-card spot and behind five other teams in the wild-card standings. They had dealt starting pitcher Jack Flaherty at the July trade deadline, and their lineup in a 3-1 loss to the San Francisco Giants that day featured Akil Baddoo batting leadoff (hitting .125), Gio Urshela at cleanup (.605 OPS) and Bligh Madris playing first base and batting fifth (career OPS in the majors of .560). The bottom four hitters all finished the game hitting under .200.
FanGraphs pegged Detroit’s playoff odds at 0.2%, which seemed generous.
The Tigers won the next day, beating the Giants 5-4. Maybe the biggest win of their season came on Aug. 15, though, when Javier Baez hit a two-out, two-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning off tough Seattle Mariners closer Andres Munoz to lift the Tigers to a 2-1 victory. The Tigers would go on to an improbable 31-13 run to finish the season at 86-76 and capture a wild card — one win more than Seattle — before eventually being eliminated in the American League Division Series.
The winning has carried over into 2025 as the Tigers are 36-20, the best record in the American League. Tuesday was their 100th game since the transformation began Aug. 11, and they have the best record in the majors since that date:
What has led to this dominance? Let’s break down some of the numbers behind Detroit’s astounding turnaround over the past 100 games.
1. Tarik Skubal is 10-2 with a 2.22 ERA, 149 strikeouts and just 14 walks
The 2024 AL Cy Young winner dominated down the stretch in 2024 and has apparently raised his game to an even higher level. This season, Skubal boasts a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 92-to-7, or 13.14 K’s for every walk — which would be the best ever for a qualified pitcher:
Skubal, 2025: 13.14
Phil Hughes, 2014: 11.63
Bret Saberhagen, 1994: 11.00
Cliff Lee, 2010: 10.28
Curt Schilling, 2002: 9.58
Skubal shut out the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday, allowing just two hits and striking out 13, registering a game score of 96, the highest game score since Domingo German also scored a 96 in his perfect game in 2023. Skubal’s final pitch: a blazing 102.6 mph fastball to strike out Gabriel Arias, the fastest strikeout pitch by a starting pitcher of the pitch-tracking era.
That pitch capped a historic performance for Skubal. Not only was it his first career complete game, but he did it throwing just 94 pitches. A shutout with fewer than 100 pitches is known as a Maddux, in honor of Hall of Famer and king of efficiency Greg Maddux (who had 13 Madduxes in his career). But Maddux never had a game quite like this one: Since pitch counts began in 1988, Skubal is the first pitcher to throw a shutout with fewer than 100 pitches and at least 13 strikeouts.
As he walked out to the mound for the ninth inning, he received a standing ovation from the home crowd chanting his name.
“Little teary-eyed out there, honestly, before the inning started,” Skubal said after the game. “It was pretty cool. I just thought to myself 12-year-old me wouldn’t believe that was an opportunity to have the fan base support you the way it does and be in that moment.”
Guardians manager Stephen Vogt called him the best pitcher in baseball. It’s hard to argue with that description.
2. A major-league-leading 2.78 bullpen ERA
Let’s break down the Tigers’ relief pitching over the past two seasons:
Start of 2024 season through Aug. 10: 4.16 ERA (20th in majors)
Aug. 11 to end of season: 2.35 ERA (second in majors)
2025: 3.31 ERA (seventh in majors)
The bullpen hasn’t been quite as dominant as it was those final seven weeks of 2024, but it has been effective enough. Manager A.J. Hinch and pitching coach Chris Fetter deserve a lot of credit for mixing and matching here. Changeup specialist Tommy Kahnle, signed as a free agent, has split closer duties with Will Vest, with Kahnle recording six saves and the hard-throwing Vest locking up four wins and seven saves.
This has been the result of necessity more than some master plan. Jason Foley led the team with 28 saves in 2024 but was sent down to Triple-A to begin this season after struggling in spring training. In mid-April, Foley talked to the Detroit News about his shock and frustration in getting sent down, but after allowing one hit over 6⅔ scoreless innings in five games for Toledo, Foley was placed on the injured list before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery earlier this month.
This could be an area in which the Tigers eventually look to add some depth. Kahnle has succeeded in throwing changeups 84% of the time but also hasn’t pitched 50 innings in a season since 2019. Beau Brieske had a 3.18 ERA a season ago as a reliever but is at 5.29 in 2025 with just 12 strikeouts in 17 innings. Overall, the pen ranks just 22nd in the majors in strikeout rate, so it is more of a pitch-to-contact pen.
3. A .726 OPS that ranks top 10 in the majors
Let’s break this down into the same three splits:
Start of 2024 season through Aug. 10: .674 OPS (27th in majors, 4.12 runs per game)
Aug. 11 to end of season: .714 OPS (13th in majors, 4.45 runs per game)
2025: .736 OPS (eighth in majors, 5.07 runs per game)
For the first four-plus months of 2024, the Detroit offense was bad — much like it had been for each season since 2017. In those years, the Tigers ranked 10th or worse in the AL in runs, consistently ranking near the bottom in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The offense perked up down the hot stretch to finish 2024 but has been even better this season — Detroit last averaged at least 5.0 runs per game for an entire season in 2008.
The Tigers have also improved their OBP from .300 last season to .325 so far in 2025. Two keys here: Free agent Gleyber Torres and 2020 No. 1 pick Spencer Torkelson. Torres, signed to a one-year, $15 million contract, has a .380 OBP, well above his career mark of .334 entering the season. There’s reason to believe he might keep this going as he ranks in the 99th percentile in chase rate, continuing a two-year improvement from a 25.9% chase rate in 2023 to 21.4% in 2024 to 16.0% in 2025. That has helped him to more walks than strikeouts and a solid .277 average.
Torkelson, meanwhile, is hitting .238/.351/.513 with 13 home runs and 40 RBIs — a big improvement from last year’s .219/.295/.374 line that led to a two-month demotion to Triple-A. He hit 31 home runs in 2023, so he has produced power numbers before, but this time he’s doing it with fewer strikeouts and more walks. His timing has been better, especially as he has pulled more balls in the air (and fewer on the ground). His defensive metrics are also much improved. So far, this is a much better player than we saw even in 2023, let alone 2024.
4. Javier Baez is hitting .280/.315/.459 in 2025
Hinch has done a terrific job of mixing up his lineups, especially since Matt Vierling, who was second to Riley Greene in WAR among position players in 2024, just returned for his first action of 2025. The Tigers have also been without outfielders Parker Meadows and Wenceel Perez all season. With Vierling and Meadows both injured, they were left without a center fielder. The initial plan featured light-hitting infielder Ryan Kreidler plus a little Greene, but Kreidler didn’t hit and Greene is best suited for a corner position.
So the Tigers got creative — with Baez, of all players. Despite that key home run against the Mariners, Baez was one of the worst players in the majors in 2024, hitting .184/.221/.294 with minus-1.1 WAR. They made their late run last year mostly without Baez, who played his last game on Aug. 22. With three years and $73 million left on his contract and the Tigers looking to give the shortstop job to rookie Trey Sweeney, they appeared stuck with one utility infielder on an expensive contract.
After working out in center field in spring training, Baez got his first start there April 22.
“One of the things that Javy has always been invested in is winning,” Hinch said at the time. “And he asked what he needed to do to help this team win. You can go to adjustments at the plate, play clean defense, the baserunning that he brings. But the reality is, the biggest message was: We’re going to need you at multiple positions. And he was all-in, and I think he’s taken it in stride because he saw that our team was winning.”
Baez’s offense had gone downhill in his three seasons with the Tigers, so he’s finally producing at the plate for the first time since 2021. His defense in center has been more than acceptable. Can he keep it going? Probably not. He’s the same ultra-aggressive hitter, with a chase rate that’s still over 40%. His hard-hit rates remain well below where they were during his best seasons with the Chicago Cubs. Meadows has just started a rehab assignment and will likely take over in center when he returns, but Baez has at least shown he can help out as a utility player.
Throw in Vierling — another player who can play all over the field — and suddenly Detroit’s lineup is not only versatile, but deep from one to nine with a good bench.
The continued success of Mize and Jobe might be the key to whether the Tigers run away in the AL Central and keep this win pace going over 162 games. Mize is 6-1 with a 2.45 ERA but has a 3.90 FIP, as he has allowed a .215 average and .255 OBP despite averaging a below-average 7.7 K’s per nine innings. Jobe is 4-1 with a 4.03 ERA but a 5.02 FIP as he has a poor 35-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Despite the difference between their ERA and FIP, there is reason to believe in both pitchers. In Mize’s case, he throws strikes (with just 10 walks in nine starts), and his expected stats show a .208 average and .369 slugging percentage, almost a perfect match for his actual results — so he has done a good job of limiting hard contact and inducing an above-average groundball rate.
For Jobe, it’s all about projection improvement. We’ve seen that in his past three starts, as the highly rated rookie starter induced a few more swing-and-misses — 14, 11 and 11, respectively, after not reaching double figures in his first six starts. His changeup has been effective, giving him a nice weapon against left-handed batters. The issue is that his four-seam fastball, while averaging 96.6 mph, doesn’t miss a lot of bats. Since he doesn’t get much extension in his delivery, his “effective” velocity is just 93.0 mph, so it plays down a bit despite a fairly high spin rate (81st percentile). Bottom line: He’s nine starts into his career and has shown the potential that made him a top prospect.
And the bottom line for the Tigers overall? They’re clearly for real, with improved offensive depth, a dominant No. 1 starter and a top manager who knows how to use his roster. Detroit also has a strong farm system — No. 3 on ESPN’s preseason ranking — that will allow it to be one of the teams most likely to add significant help at the trade deadline.
The Tigers haven’t won 100 games since 1984, which happens to be the last time they won the World Series. This team has the roster to make you believe both of those things could happen again in 2025.
New York loaded the bases with nobody out in the ninth inning, but All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman pitched out of the jam against his former team. Boston is 10-4 versus its longtime rival this year and halfway to winning the best-of-three playoff.
Game 2 is Wednesday night in the Bronx again, with Aaron Judge and the Yankees needing a victory to extend their season. Carlos Rodon (18-9, 3.09 ERA) will start for New York, opposed by Brayan Bello (11-9, 3.35).
Crochet gave up only Anthony Volpe‘s second-inning homer and improved to 4-0 against the Yankees this year, throwing a career-high 117 pitches in a marquee duel of ace left-handers with Max Fried. Crochet struck out 11 and walked none over 7⅔ innings while allowing four hits.
“The stuff was really good at that point,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said of Crochet, keeping him in well into the eighth inning. “He was throwing 97, 98, and the previous inning was a quick one. So, it gave us a chance to push the envelope.”
Pitching with a 2-1 lead after Yoshida’s go-ahead hit in the seventh, Crochet extended his streak of retired batters until Volpe singled with one out in the eighth. Crochet’s final pitch was his fastest at 100.2 mph, which Austin Wells took for a called third strike.
“He’s the best pitcher in the game,” Yankees slugger Aaron Judge said of Crochet. “He’s going to work all of his pitches, and he threw a little bit more off-speed early on. But we got the Volpe homer, and we got some guys on, but we couldn’t do much after that.”
Chapman retired Jose Caballero on a fly out to finish the eighth before Alex Bregman, playing his 100th postseason game, hit an RBI double in the ninth off David Bednar.
Boston improved to 13-12 against the Yankees in the postseason, winning nine of the past 10 meetings.
Crochet threw the most pitches in a postseason game since Washington’s Stephen Strasburg tossed 117 against St. Louis in 2019.
Fried pitched shutout ball for 6⅓ innings but a Yankees bullpen that had a 4.37 ERA during the regular season, 23rd among the 30 teams, faltered again.
Weaver relieved with no one on, got ahead of Ceddanne Rafaela 0-2 in the count, then walked him on 11 pitches.
Nick Sogard grounded a hit into right-center, hustling to second when Judge didn’t sprint to pick up the ball. Yoshida lined the next pitch, a fastball at the letters, to center for a 2-1 lead.
Weaver had a 1.05 ERA in his first 24 appearances, was sidelined for 2½ weeks by a strained left hamstring, then had a 5.31 ERA over his final 40 games.
Fried got 19 swings and misses, striking out six and walking three while allowing four hits in 6⅓ innings. He escaped a second-and-third, two-out jam in the fourth, then first-and-second, one-out trouble in the fifth.
Volpe, who slumped to a .212 average this year, put the Yankees ahead when he drove a sinker to the opposite field, where the ball landed a half-dozen rows into the right-field seats. Volpe’s drive would have been a home run in all but one big league stadium: Fenway Park.
It’s a deal worth more in total money that the one Alex Ovechkin signed with the Washington Capitals ($124 million) in 2008, and carries a higher average annual value (AAV) than the one signed by Leon Draisaitl with the Edmonton Oilers ($14 million) last September.
It’s a contract that has sent shockwaves through the NHL. Some will benefit from its repercussions. Some will not. Here are the winners and losers of the Kaprizov contract, as we see them:
Winner: Bill Guerin
It was Guerin that finally got Kaprizov to leave the KHL for the NHL in 2021, succeeding where two previous Wild GMs had failed. Now he’s the guy that’s helped convinced Kaprizov to stay in Minnesota.
Guerin faced some enormous challenges in getting this done. One of them was the lure of unrestricted free agency under a rising salary cap, as Kaprizov wouldn’t have suffered from a lack of suitors. Some of those suitors might have been more appealing than the Wild: As one NHL agent told ESPN, the Wild’s status as a mid-tier Stanley Cup contender and Minnesota not being “a destination” for stars worked against them. Kaprizov had the hammer in negotiations, as was evidenced by the windfall he eventually received.
But Guerin also had some advantages here. His team could give Kaprizov the eighth contract year that the player reportedly wanted out of his next deal. He also had the financial backing of ownership to offer the richest contract in NHL history — $128 million earlier in September — and then increase that offer when Kaprizov didn’t sign.
Guerin also benefitted from having Kaprizov’s contract come up before a major change in the CBA rules. His contract pays out $128 million of his money in annual signing bonuses. That’s 94% of its value. Starting in Sept. 2026, contracts will only be able to offer signing bonuses worth 60% of the “aggregate compensation payable under the contract.”
Guerin landed the plane at time when many felt Kaprizov’s initial rejection of a record contract was his rejection of the franchise. Whether you agree with the compensation or not, give credit where it’s due: He got it done.
Loser: Kevin Cheveldayoff
Since 2021-22, Kyle Connor has scored just five fewer goals (153) than Kaprizov (158), having played 44 more games than the Minnesota winger. That’s on a 14.2% shooting percentage. Simply put, the 28-year-old Jet winger is as elite a goal-scorer as you’ll find on the wing — and as an unrestricted free agent next summer, should be compensated as such.
The question is whether that’ll happen in Winnipeg, where he’s entering his 10th season, or elsewhere.
If Connor was waiting for a salary domino to fall, this one landed with a sonic boom. Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff just watched Kaprizov reset the market for a player that scored 41 goals and had 56 assists for a career best 97 points in 82 games.
Cheveldayoff has done a masterful job retaining other stars like goalie Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele, both at $8.5 million AAV over seven seasons. Market conditions were more favorable to the Jets when they re-upped in 2023. They aren’t now, thanks in part to Kaprizov.
The conundrum for Cheveldayoff and the Jets: Is Connor worth that money?
“He scores goals, but gives a lot back,” one NHL executive said.
Winner: Paul Theofanous
Wild owner Craig Leipold told The Athletic on Tuesday that the team was still convinced Kaprizov wanted to re-sign even after he didn’t agree to an eight-year, $128 million contract extension offer on Sept. 9.
“He never raised the money issue. That was always the agent,” Leipold said. “So, I mean, I think we always thought that we’re going to get this thing done, and we thought, at least in the last week or so, 17 was the number.”
Theofanous, Kaprizov’s agent, is a legendarily tough negotiator. He not only managed to get another $8 million added to an offer that would have already set a new NHL contract value record, but he negotiated a contract structure that pays Kaprizov $128 million in “buyout-proof” bonus money. Theofanous dug his heels in and won huge, despite the Wild’s belief that Kaprizov wouldn’t take this to free agency.
The upper limit of the NHL salary cap this season is $95.5 million. It’s been estimated that the ceiling will be at least $104 million in 2026-27, the first time the NHL’s salary cap will have crested over the century mark. Some predicted this inflation would lead to a spike in player movement, as teams had more to spend on acquiring talent.
On the contrary, the rising cap has seen teams retain their players throughout the offseason, no longer sweating out the pressure points that the cap created. Kaprizov is the latest name to stay where his stuff is, and he’s likely not the last.
Winner: Getting locked in early
Hart Levine of the salary cap site Puck Pedia believes that hockey fans just have to accept that this is the new normal under the salary cap.
“It’s a big number, but we just have to get used to living in a world where the cap is going up each year. It’s going up 9% from this year to next year,” he told me.
It’s all about context. Heck, even Kaprizov’s deal might look like a bargain in the next few seasons.
Take Draisaitl’s contract that he signed last September. Levine says that under next year’s salary cap, Draisaitl’s contract would have been worth $15.25 million against the cap. Conversely, if you took Kaprizov’s contract and put into current cap dollars, the AAV would be around $15.6 million.
One NHL executive likened the rise in the salary cap to a “tidal wave” that’ll just keep adding more and more large contracts as it grows. Which means the key for teams is locking players in before that wave crests.
When discussing good cap management with some NHL sources, one team that came up multiple times was the Carolina Hurricanes.
Their front office, now led by GM Eric Tulsky, has locked up several players to long-term deals ahead of the dramatic salary cap increase: Forwards Sebastian Aho ($9.75 million through 2031-32), Seth Jarvis ($7,420,087 through 2031-32) and Logan Stankoven ($6 million through 2033-34), as well as newly acquired defenseman K’Andre Miller ($7.5 million through 2032-33) and forward Nikolaj Ehlers ($8.5 million through 2030-31).
The Canes have their core locked up long-term at a reasonable rate, and the flexibility to still go after big players via trades as they’ve done the last two seasons with Jake Guentzel and Mikko Rantanen.
Kaprizov’s contract will no doubt continue the dialogue about NHL cities with high income taxes and NHL cities that don’t have income taxes, a.k.a. the teams that happen to be winning Stanley Cups with some frequency lately.
According to an analysis by the Tax Foundation, Minnesota has the fifth-highest top income tax rate in the U.S., at 9.85%. There’s no question that’s a factor in Kaprizov getting $136 million over eight seasons, because he wouldn’t have gotten that same number in a no-tax state. Jeff Marek of Daily Faceoff spoke with one player agent who said Kaprizov’s average annual value in a place like Florida would have been around $14 million.
If that’s the case, then Kaprizov still would have made more annually than Mitch Marner of the Vegas Golden Knights and Mikko Rantanen of the Dallas Stars, who both signed mega-contracts in the last year worth $12 million against the cap through 2032-33.
Marner’s points-per-game average of the last three seasons was equal to Kaprizov’s (1.24) while Rantanen’s was right behind them (1.22). If either of them had the power of clairvoyance and could see what Kaprizov just earned, what would those contracts have looked like?
Winner: Kirill Kaprizov
We must obviously shout out the man himself, who set a new standard for NHL contracts in both overall value and average annual value. From a production standpoint, he’s among the best offensive hockey players in the world: He plays to a 50-goal pace, is a dynamic playmaker and shown to be a more committed defensive player than one might assume given his gaudy stats.
But there’s one number that’s never added up for Kaprizov, and that’s games played. The winger has played over 80 games once in his NHL career, back in 2021-22 when finished seventh in the MVP voting. Last season saw him limited to 41 games. He’s 28 years old, turning 29 next April.
Again, it’s a credit to Kaprizov that he has still managed to post astounding numbers despite those injuries. But for this level of investment, the Wild need him on the ice and not in the press box. Minnesota was 63-41-12 with Kaprizov in the lineup over the last two seasons and 21-23-4 without him. He’s a difference-maker.
The most complicated contract decision in the NHL just got a little more complicated.
McDavid is entering the final year of his contract with the Oilers. As we’ve written previously, everything is on the table for his future — from taking a shorter-term deal to remain in Edmonton to leaving for what would unquestionably become the richest free-agent contract the NHL has ever seen.
The latest speculation around the league: If McDavid does decide to remain with the Oilers beyond this season, it wouldn’t be for a max contract, with the idea being that McDavid would want fair compensation while giving Edmonton GM Stan Bowman flexibility to improve the team in pursuit of McDavid’s elusive Stanley Cup ring.
Yet there are also those who believe that McDavid should secure the bag even if he stays in Edmonton — after all, why should he pay for the team’s cap-management missteps?
McDavid is the best hockey player in the world. Whatever he wants on a new contract in Edmonton, they’re going to give him. It’s the “whatever he wants” that’s now a thornier issue, as the bar has been raised from Draisaitl’s $14 million to Kaprizov’s $17 million. Will McDavid choose to reset that bar whenever — or wherever — he signs his new deal?
Will Vest recorded the final four outs for Detroit, surviving a tense ninth inning after Cleveland star Jose Ramirez got hung up between third base and home for the second out.
The Tigers, who struggled down the stretch, allowing Cleveland to secure the AL Central title, can advance to the division series round for the second straight year with a win Wednesday.
“It means a lot to take the ball in Game 1,” Skubal said. “To have the trust in our whole organization, it means a lot. And it doesn’t really matter how we got here. We’re up 1-0 in a best of three.”
Detroit scored the go-ahead run in the seventh inning when Zach McKinstry‘s safety squeeze scored Riley Greene from third.
Ramirez led off the ninth with an infield single and advanced to third when shortstop Javier Baez threw wide of first base. Vest struck out pinch-hitter George Valera, then Kyle Manzardo hit a grounder to Vest. Ramirez broke for home but was cut off by Vest, who chased him down and tagged him out.
“That ball’s two feet either way, he scores,” Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt said. “It just happened to go right back to Vest. So we play aggressive. We always do. We run the bases aggressive. I wouldn’t play that any other way.”
C.J. Kayfus then hit a flyout to Baez in shallow left to end it.
Skubal, who is favored to win his second straight AL Cy Young Award, set a career high for strikeouts. He was dominant and unfazed as he pitched on the same mound where one week ago, he threw a 99 mph fastball that struck Cleveland designated hitter David Fry in the nose and face during the sixth inning.
“I thought my outing was coming to a close,” Skubal said when asked about being allowed to continue on into the eighth inning. “But I was ready to go back out there. I’m never going to take myself out of a game, and I don’t ever really want the handshake.”
The right-hander went 7 2/3 innings and threw 107 pitches, one off his career high, including 73 strikes. He allowed one run on only three hits, with two being infield singles, and walked three. His fastball averaged 99.1 mph, 1.6 mph above his season average.
Skubal outdueled Cleveland starter Gavin Williams, who was just as effective but hurt by a pair of Guardians errors. Williams allowed two unearned runs in six-plus innings on five hits with eight strikeouts and one walk.
“I was just worried about doing my best to execute each pitch,” Skubal said, “and just do what makes me a good pitcher, and that’s getting ahead, and getting guys into leverage.”
Detroit took a 1-0 lead in the first inning when Kerry Carpenter scored on Spencer Torkelson’s two-out bloop single to left field. Carpenter got aboard on a base hit to right but advanced to second on a fielding error by Johnathan Rodriguez.
The Guardians finally got to Skubal in the fourth by not having a ball leave the infield.
Angel Martinez hit a slow grounder between Skubal and second baseman Gleyber Torres to lead off the inning. He advanced to second on Ramírez’s walk.
With two outs and runners on first and second, Gabriel Arias hit a high chopper over Skubal. The ball landed on the infield grass between the mound and second base. Skubal fielded the ball as Martinez rounded third. Martinez’s left hand touched the plate before Detroit catcher Dillon Dingler applied the tag.
Martinez was originally ruled out on the head-first slide, but it was overturned by instant replay to tie the game at 1-1.