Free agency and draft plans for Stars, Hurricanes, every other eliminated team
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
The 2024-25 NHL regular season is over and the playoffs are underway..
This is the place where we look ahead to the offseason for all the teams eliminated from contention: Who will those teams try to add via free agency, trades and the draft? How much better will the team be in 2025-26?
Read on for a look at what went wrong for each eliminated team, along with a breakdown of the biggest keys this offseason and realistic expectations for next season. Note that more teams will be added to this story as they are eliminated.
Note: Profiles for the Atlantic and Metro teams were written by Kristen Shilton, and Ryan S. Clark analyzed the Central and Pacific teams. Stats are collected from sites such as Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Evolving Hockey. Projected cap space per PuckPedia. Dates listed with each team are when the entry was published. Teams are listed alphabetically by publication date.
Jump to a team:
ANA | BOS | BUF | CGY
CAR | CHI | COL | CBJ
DAL | DET | LA | MIN
MTL | NJ | NSH | NYI
NYR | OTT | PHI | PIT
SJ | SEA | STL | TB
TOR | UTA | VAN | VGK
WSH | WPG
Playoff teams
Projected cap space: $5.32 million
2025 draft picks: 3rd, 5th, 5th (NJ), 6th, 7th
What went right? There’s no questioning their status as a championship contender. Not that the Stars’ aspirations were ever in question, but the moves that GM Jim Nill made throughout the 2024-25 season further reinforced the Stars to win now.
A team that once thought of draft picks as sacred moved on from first- and fourth-round picks in this summer’s draft in a trade that returned Cody Ceci and Mikael Granlund. Then Nill moved even more draft capital (two first-round picks and two third-round picks) and promising young forward Logan Stankoven to get Mikko Rantanen, before signing the superstar Finn to an eight-year extension.
All of that helped get the Stars back to the Western Conference finals for the third straight season.
What went wrong? Some of the questions that were present throughout the Stars’ playoff run — such as their depth — were issues in the conference finals against the Edmonton Oilers. It initially appeared as if the Stars had found a solution with the number of players who contributed to their 6-3 comeback win in Game 1.
But the next three games would see them score only twice, which made the Stars the second team that was in the top five in goals per game during the regular season to be effectively silenced by the Oilers in a playoff series (the Vegas Golden Knights were dispatched in the second round).
Failing to consistently score goals or generate some sort of a breakthrough in other areas is what led to Stars becoming the first team to reach three straight conference finals without advancing to the Stanley Cup Final in NHL history.
Keys to the offseason: Perhaps the only thing more draining than being a championship contender that can’t seem to reach the Stanley Cup Final? Figuring out how to remain in contention despite having only so much cap space.
The Stars have built well from within, allowing them to maintain the sort of cap space that has given them an advantage to this point. But with Wyatt Johnston and Jake Oettinger set to receive significant pay bumps on their new deals, and the first year of Rantanen’s new contract kicking in, the Stars will need to get creative — along with making some difficult decisions this summer. Matt Duchene, Jamie Benn, Evgenii Dadonov, Granlund, and Ceci headline the class of unrestricted free agents.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Much like they were this season, the Stars will again be among that category of teams in a championship window. But what will make next season hypothetically more challenging is the fact that the young core who have been key performers on those cheap contracts are now making more money. That not only amplifies the need for the Stars to hit on players on team-friendly deals, but it ramps up the pressure to start winning in this part of their window.
Projected cap space: $36.18 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 3rd (TB), 4th, 6th, 6th (TB), 7th
What went right? Carolina had another impressive regular season. The Canes finished in second place in the Metro Division, with a 99-point effort that set them up in good position for a long playoff run.
The Hurricanes were strikingly stingy again on defense, finishing in the top 10 in goals-against average (2.80), and their penalty kill was tops in the league (83.6%). Carolina’s offense was propelled by Seth Jarvis (32 goals) and Sebastian Aho (74 points), and worked in complement with their dialed-in defense.
The Hurricanes also lucked out in the trade-gone-bad for Mikko Rantanen; while Rantanen didn’t stick around, Carolina did get Logan Stankoven in return from Dallas (along with a bounty of picks) when it traded Rantanen away. Stankoven has been a key player for the Hurricanes this postseason, and will be for seasons to come.
Carolina managed to put it all together and get rolling to start the playoffs too, losing a combined two games in the first and second rounds to punch its ticket to a second Eastern Conference finals in three years.
What went wrong? Well, about that conference finals appearance. It did not go well. The Hurricanes lost — again — to Florida, although they won one game, which was one more than two years ago. Prior to the Game 4 victory, it was 15 straight losses in conference finals action. Not ideal.
Carolina had benefited from terrific goaltending from Frederik Andersen in the first two rounds, but the Hurricanes’ netminder was no match for the Panthers’ punishing attack. Coach Rod Brind’Armour replaced Andersen with Pyotr Kochetkov in Game 3, but that did little to slow Florida’s roll as they pounded Kochetkov just the same. Andersen was strong in Game 4, but couldn’t sustain it in Game 5.
The Hurricanes’ offense was no help, scoring three goals total in the series’ first three games. That lack of depth up front is what GM Eric Tulsky tried to address in acquiring Rantanen in the first place. Knowing Rantanen wouldn’t be sticking around long term — and was hardly a difference-maker with two goals in the 13 games he did play for Carolina — Tulsky had no choice but to give him up. Now he’ll have to try again at finding ways to put Carolina over the top.
Keys to the offseason: The Hurricanes have ample cap space to use in the offseason. That’s a bonus considering they’ve got some holes to fill.
There’s a need for Carolina to get — and keep — a Jake Guentzel or Rantanen type of player — that big, game-breaking talent who can drive their offense in a tough division, and get them a goal when they need it most in the playoffs. While Jarvis, Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and even Stankoven are excellent players, they aren’t moving the needle enough for Carolina when it counts. Whether it’s another splashy trade or finding someone on the open market to fill that role, the Hurricanes will be better equipped for the 2026 playoffs if they can land a headliner.
Tulsky has draft capital to wield as well, with a 2025 first-round choice a prime asset. The front office also must make decisions on an unrestricted free agent class that includes forwards Jack Roslovic, Eric Robinson, Jesper Fast and Tyson Jost, along with defensemen Brent Burns and Dmitry Orlov.
And speaking of the back end, the Hurricanes are getting long in the tooth on their blue line. An infusion of some younger talent — along with increased opportunity for Alexander Nikishin (23) and Scott Morrow (22) — would go a long way.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Carolina has too many good players not to be in the playoff field again. It’s just a matter of what the results will be like when they arrive. There’s reason to question what they can put together after another disappointing showing on the heels of such early playoff promise.
Projected cap space: $27.49 million
2025 draft picks: 2nd (FLA), 3rd (EDM), 5th, 5th (PIT), 6th, 7th
What went right? The Maple Leafs enjoyed another terrific regular season. Toronto won its first division title in 25 years by finishing fourth overall in points (108) and wielding the seventh-best offense (3.26 goals per game). First-year coach Craig Berube restructured the Leafs into a team that could not only score goals but play a strong collective defensive game, too, resulting in the Leafs’ eighth-ranked defense (2.79 goals against).
The goaltending tandem of Anthony Stolarz (21-8-3, .926 save percentage, 2.14 goals-against average) and Joseph Woll (27-14-1, .909 SP, 2.73 GAA) worked seamlessly in Stolarz’s first season with the club, and new additions on the blue line — especially Chris Tanev — made the Maple Leafs more physically robust than they’d been in years.
The Leafs also got unexpectedly strong contributions from some familiar faces, including John Tavares; the veteran had one of his most productive seasons for Toronto, with 38 goals and 74 points. And rising star Matthew Knies had a breakout season with 29 goals and 58 points, success that he carried over into the postseason, with several solid performances. Speaking of which, the Leafs actually won a playoff round!
What went wrong? Toronto may have skated past the Ottawa Senators with a first-round victory, but the Leafs’ postseason demons were alive and well in their second-round clash with the Florida Panthers.
Toronto squandered an early 2-0 series lead, watching it evaporate in Florida’s come-from-behind victory in Game 3 and a shutout win in Game 4. The Leafs were booed off their own ice in Game 5’s 6-1 drubbing, where Toronto’s lack of star power was blatantly obvious. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander were all goal-less against the Panthers to that point, but they rose to the occasion in Game 6 to drag the Cats back to Toronto for Game 7.
That’s where the Leafs’ run ended, marking the sixth Game 7 loss for Toronto in the Matthews era. Florida is designed to wear opponents down, and while Toronto blocked shots with gusto the entire series, the Panthers’ heavy forecheck and strong play in front of a rock-solid Sergei Bobrovsky was too much to overcome. Toronto’s once-potent power play was no help, either, going 2-for-20 in the series.
Granted, the Leafs lost Stolarz in Game 1 of the series to an undisclosed injury, but Woll gave them every chance to take Game 4, was strong early in Game 5 and shut the door completely in Game 6. The Leafs simply couldn’t produce offensively, and in hallmark fashion their top skaters failed to show up when it mattered. Berube said Toronto was “overthinking” late in the postseason. That may have been true — and once again, there’s another too-long summer ahead to dwell on what could have been.
Keys to the offseason: First things first: Is Marner still a Maple Leaf next season? The pending unrestricted free agent wanted to play out the final year of his contract before deciding whether to recommit to Toronto. It’s time now for both sides to decide whether renewing their vows — or an amicable split — makes more sense.
The Leafs will have salary cap space to use on a significant extension, but depending on where Marner hopes to land (likely among the league’s highest-paid forwards), Toronto will have to balance his asking price with their other needs. Knies is a restricted free agent in whom the Leafs will want to invest, and Tavares’ deal is up, too. Given how the latter performed this season, there has to be interest on both sides to stay together.
There’s also the matter of Nicholas Robertson, another pending RFA who has in the past expressed his desire to leave Toronto. Will GM Brad Treliving find a suitable trade partner now?
The Leafs don’t have much draft capital, having traded their first-round pick this season for Jake McCabe in 2023, but the cap space they have will be useful on the open market — and Robertson could come into play as a trade chip as well.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Toronto is built to win now, and the team will be back chasing a division title again next season. Will it lead to anything of note in the playoffs? Well, it’s easy to wonder what it will take to make that a reality.
Projected cap space: $36.36 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? Any questions about how Scott Arniel’s first season as the head coach would go after previous serving as Rick Bowness’ assistant were emphatically answered. Especially with the Jets pulling off something they hadn’t done since the 2020-21 season: advancing to the second round of the playoffs.
Much of their success stemmed from being able to trust they could receive contributions throughout their entire lineup. That was further fortified by having a consistent defensive structure that was enhanced by Connor Hellebuyck, who is in line to become the first American to win three Vezina Trophies.
What went wrong? There was never a concern about whether the Jets were a playoff team. But there were questions about how the Jets could fare against a team in a legitimate championship window if they got beyond the first round.
Facing the Dallas Stars provided glimpses that the Jets could keep games close for a time, before succumbing to the big period against one of the West’s top contenders. It’s what happened in Games 1 and 3, when the Stars had a pair of three-goal periods in those contests. Or it was seeing how key players such as Mikael Granlund and Mikko Rantanen paced the Stars with hat tricks and the Jets didn’t get the same high-octane offense.
Keys to the offseason: The Jets are going to have a lot of money this summer to address their roster.
Some of that will likely go toward re-signing pending restricted free agent Gabriel Vilardi, who just had his third straight 20-goal campaign while scoring a personal-best 61 points.
Where it gets complicated, interesting or both is figuring out how they’ll handle pending unrestricted free agent winger Nikolaj Ehlers. Does he stay? Does he leave? If he leaves, will they do a sign-and-trade and not risk losing him for nothing?
And if he does go, how do the Jets replace a dynamic, seven-time 20-goal scorer?
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: No team is guaranteed a playoff berth. But there are those that are judged more on what they did or didn’t do in the postseason compared to what they did in the regular season. That’s where the Jets currently live.
The Jets should challenge for a playoff spot in a demanding Central Division. It’s just that their well-noted struggles to get out of the first round is what makes the regular season, while important, not the barometer by which they will be assessed. Whether or not they can get out of the first round — and the second, and beyond — will be the new litmus test for the Jets.
Projected cap space: $12.38 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd (BOS), 3rd (CAR), 4th, 5th
What went right? Washington was supposed to be rebuilding, and this season showed the Capitals didn’t need long to regroup. They were excellent from the outset of the regular season and quickly climbed atop the Eastern Conference standings. That’s where the Capitals stayed most of the season, accumulating the second-most points (111) in the league on the strength of their second-ranked offense (averaging 3.49 goals per game) and superb goaltending from Logan Thompson (31-6-6, .910 SV%, 2.49 GAA).
There was no bigger — or better — storyline for the Capitals though than seeing captain Alex Ovechkin make history when he surpassed Wayne Gretzky as the NHL’s all-time scoring leader with career goal No. 895 on April 6. It was an individual accomplishment Ovechkin chased with his entire team; his teammates referenced that quest as a constant source of motivation through the ups and downs of their season.
In addition to the Capitals’ veteran guard showing off, the Capitals saw terrific growth from some other emerging stars as well, including Ovechkin’s frequent linemates Aliaksei Protas (with a 30-goal campaign) and Dylan Strome (who led the club with 82 points). Coach Spencer Carbery deserves ample credit for turning the Capitals around in record time.
What went wrong? The Capitals’ greatest strength in the regular season became their biggest challenge by the playoffs. Washington’s red-hot offense began drying up in their second-round series against Carolina, as the Hurricanes’ stout defense and outstanding goaltending smothered the Capitals’ rush attack.
Ovechkin was particularly absent from the scoresheet against Carolina, failing to get on the board until he notched a power-play marker in Game 4. But Washington’s depth wasn’t the asset it could have been, with the team averaging just over two goals per game.
While Thompson did his best to hold the Hurricanes at bay, he didn’t receive enough support to turn those efforts into victories. The Capitals weren’t creating high-danger chances like they could in the regular season, and the lack of a net-front presence made it too easy for Frederik Andersen to shut the door.
Meanwhile, Washington’s own defensive efforts never matched Carolina’s intensity, and the Hurricanes leaned on 10 different goal scorers for a more balanced offense than what Washington rolled out. Carolina also capitalized on a poor Capitals penalty kill (72.7%) to send them into an early summer.
Keys to the offseason: Washington is in a good position for a bright future. In the process of getting there, the Capitals will also be saying a likely goodbye to some critical veteran presences from their past.
T.J. Oshie is a pending unrestricted free agent after missing the entire 2024-25 season with a chronic back issue. Same for Nicklas Backstrom, who missed the entire campaign with a hip injury. With those skaters off the books, the Capitals will be able to restock on the open market, and should be targeting top-nine skaters to help avoid running aground offensively again in the postseason.
The Capitals have other veterans with expiring deals as well — namely Lars Eller and Anthony Beauvillier — who have been role players in what was a strong season. Washington can also do some damage at the draft — whether via trades or using the picks — with selections in the first five rounds. Then, of course, there’s the question of Ovechkin: is he done now after that historic achievement? Or is there another year ahead for him in the NHL? He has one year remaining on his contract.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Washington may need some offensive upgrades, but it’s nothing so drastic as to keep them from being a playoff team again. Expect to see them trend in a similar direction — towards the top of the Metropolitan standings — next season.
Projected cap space: $9.62 million
2025 draft picks: 2nd, 3rd (WSH), 4th, 5th, 6th, 6th (WSH)
What went right? For all the concerns about how much they lost in free agency last summer, the Golden Knights found solutions. Homegrown talent Pavel Dorofeyev led them in goals in the regular season (35), and others such as Brett Howden had breakout campaigns.
Many of those contributions — coupled with what they received from their stars and other venerable figures — allowed the Golden Knights to remain in the category of teams that could challenge for a Stanley Cup. Their depth was certainly on display against the Minnesota Wild in the first round.
What went wrong? In the second round against the Oilers, that depth disappeared. They came into Game 5 trying to find the type of answers that eluded them all series.
Players such as Ivan Barbashev, Tomas Hertl and Howden combined to score 78 goals in the regular season — but had zero in the series against Edmonton. Their defensemen combined for 35 goals during the regular season, but had only one in the playoffs.
A lack of consistent scoring was pivotal in the series, particularly in the games in which the Golden Knights scored the first goal in an attempt to gain a grasp of control only to watch the series slip through their fingers.
Keys to the offseason: Next offseason will be the one in which the Golden Knights will face some major questions: Franchise center Jack Eichel‘s current deal runs through 2025-26, while the contracts for Mark Stone, Alex Pietrangelo and William Karlsson run through 2026-27.
But for now, they have 16 players under contract for next season, and Brandon Saad and Reilly Smith are part of a six-player unrestricted free agent class. Nicolas Hague is their key restricted free agent; he has one year of team control remaining before he hits UFA status.
It’s possible that the Golden Knights use their cap space to add around the edges, while trying to secure a deal with Hague that works for both sides ahead of what’s expected to be a busy 2025-26 campaign.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: The demand — as always, for a franchise that has made winning at all costs its hallmark — is challenging for the Stanley Cup.
But that comes with the caveat that this upcoming season could have two major roster-construction wrinkles: Eichel and Dorofeyev. As noted, Eichel is entering the final year of a contract that sees him earn $10 million annually. As for Dorofeyev, replicating or surpassing the career-high 35 goals he scored this season could see him cash in on a new deal; he’ll be a pending RFA that’s set to earn $1.835 million in 2025-26. Finding long-term solutions to both situations will be critical.
Projected cap space: $7.15 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 5th, 6th
What went right? Every move that GM Doug Armstrong made throughout the summer and into the season.
The offer sheets for Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway led to Broberg, when healthy, having a career-high eight goals and 29 points while logging more than 20 minutes per game. Not to be outdone, Holloway had his first 20-goal campaign.
The trade for Cam Fowler resulted in him having one of the strongest seasons of his career — and leading the team in scoring for much of the first round.
Moving on from Drew Bannister to hire Jim Montgomery resulted in the Blues gaining a legitimate level of consistency that they used to reach the playoffs for the first time since the 2021-22 season.
What went wrong? Part of the issue was that the Blues could never win a game at Canada Life Centre. The rest stems from the Blues having a proven blueprint that worked twice but failed to be replicated two more times to win the series against the Winnipeg Jets.
Generating a combined 20 high-danger scoring chances in Games 3 and 4 was instrumental in the Blues scoring 11 goals against Connor Hellebuyck in those contests. That created a belief that the Blues could capitalize on the struggles of one of the best goalies of his era, whose regular-season success had yet to translate to the playoffs. But Hellebuyck and the Jets would find a counter en route to advancing to the second round.
Keys to the offseason: For starters, the Blues don’t have a ton of cap space. But they have only one pending restricted free agent in goaltender Joel Hofer, while center Radek Faksa and defenseman Ryan Suter are their only pending unrestricted free agents.
Then there’s the Torey Krug situation. He missed the entire regular season and playoffs after undergoing ankle surgery in the preseason. Getting Krug back would not only give the Blues a logjam of defensemen, but it would give them six blueliners under contract who are each earning more than $4 million annually — and all of them except Broberg have some form of trade protection.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Returning to the playoffs, or at least remaining in the hunt for a playoff spot late into the season, is the plan. The Central Division is still going to have teams such as the Avalanche and Stars that are in a championship window, with the Jets trying to establish themselves as a perennial threat.
Meanwhile, the Wild are expected to be an active player in free agency, while the same could be said for Utah after it stayed in contention for a wild card entering the final two weeks of the season. Adding the Blues to that equation means there will be six teams (at minimum) in the division legitimately vying for a playoff spot in 2025-26.
Projected cap space: $8.70 million
2025 draft picks: 4th (VAN), 7th
What went right? Adjustments and course corrections. By December, the Avalanche already had concerns about their supporting cast — along with the problems created by an inconsistent goaltending tandem.
That prompted Avs general manager Chris MacFarland to make a series of trades that saw Colorado do everything from get a new tandem in net — led by Mackenzie Blackwood — to make key additions at the trade deadline to make the Avs one of the more dangerous teams heading into the playoffs. Their first-round exit came at the hands of a team that’s seeking to make its third straight conference finals appearance.
What went wrong? The margins for error were extremely tight. Then again, that was likely to be the case in a first-round matchup of two teams that are clearly in a championship window — and both finished with more than 100 points in the regular season.
Opening the series against the Dallas Stars with a 5-1 win and taking Game 4 with a 4-0 win spoke to just how commanding the Avs could be against a fellow Stanley Cup challenger.
But the overtime wins the Stars had in Games 2 and 3 were the difference in the Avs either sweeping the series or, in this case, being knocked out in seven after an impressive Game 6 win. They even led 2-0 in Game 7, only to witness an historic third period by former teammate Mikko Rantanen.
Keys to the offseason: Determining the best way to spend their limited cap dollars is the task every team in a championship window faces. The Avalanche know this reality all too well with the biggest factor being Gabriel Landeskog‘s health. While his return provides the Avs with a top-six forward, his $7 million cap can’t be moved to long-term injured reserve to create financial flexibility as the team had done the past few years.
That’s what leaves the Avs with a projected $8.70 million in cap space to address a seven-player unrestricted free agent class that includes Jonathan Drouin and trade deadline pickups Ryan Lindgren and Brock Nelson.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: They’re still expected to remain among the top contenders that will challenge for a Stanley Cup. The Avs have their core and quite a few members of their supporting cast under contract through at least next season. What they do in the offseason will play a role in supplementing what they already have, with the notion they’re going to be among that handful of Western Conference teams that feel the title is within reach.
Projected cap space: $23.48 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 7th (PHI)
What went right? Nearly everything they did in the regular season. Something that might get lost within the discourse around the Kings was their 48 wins tied the franchise record for the most single-season victories, while their 105 points was also tied for the most in their history.
They overcame losing Drew Doughty to a preseason injury, finally found a stable presence in goal with Darcy Kuemper, established themselves as one of the strongest defensive units in the NHL and received contributions throughout the entirety of their lineup– to the point that 14 players had more than 20 points, with five of them being defensemen. But …
What went wrong? Losing to the Edmonton Oilers in the first round … again.
Winning the first two games of the series by scoring six goals in each contest created the early impression that this could be the year that saw the Kings finally advance to the second round for the first time in more than a decade. Instead, their first-round loss has raised questions:
Why did they struggle to make adjustments beyond Game 2? Why were they able to build a commanding lead in Game 2 yet blew consecutive leads in Games 3 and 4? Why is it that just simply typing Jim Hiller’s name in an internet search is immediately met with “Jim Hiller challenge” because there’s a belief his Game 3 decision might have been the turning point in the series? And then there’s one more pressing question to consider given their latest first-round exit.
Keys to the offseason: Are the Kings going to stay the course or do they use this offseason to make significant changes?
If they move on from Hiller, that will give the Kings their third head coach since February 2024 when they fired Todd McLellan. Or could ownership be inclined to look at a front office that, while making several moves to improve the roster, hasn’t quite found the definitive combination to get the Kings beyond the first round?
Anything the Kings do this offseason will be with the purpose of not only trying to win in the first round but figuring out how they can win against elite teams in the conference.
The Kings have a six-player UFA class that’s led by Vladislav Gavrikov and Andrei Kuzmenko. Should they elect to get deals done for at least those two, it leaves the Kings with the financial flexibility to address the roster to compete against the best in the west at the most demanding time of the season.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Maybe more than just making the playoffs? They have the majority of their roster coming back, while also having quite a bit of cap space. Although nothing about that exact circumstance means there are guarantees, there is an expectation that the Kings will once again be challenging for a playoff spot.
But what they do in the offseason, however, will come with this one crucial question: Will it be the difference in the Kings advancing to at least the second round — or could it result in another promising run cut short by an early postseason exit?
Projected cap space: $21.88 million
2025 draft picks: 2nd, 4th (TOR), 5th (CBJ), 6th
What went right? Navigating Kirill Kaprizov‘s absence to make the playoffs. Before Kaprizov sustained the December injury that kept him out until April, the Wild were establishing a case for why they might be one of the best teams in the Western Conference. They were scoring enough goals in tandem with a defensive structure and goalie performances that allowed them to excel in tight situations.
But Kaprizov’s injury resulted in the loss of their leading scorer, which prompted the Wild to rely on their defensive identity in order to capture a wild-card spot and advance to the playoffs.
What went wrong? Their ability to win one-goal games went dormant. Bizarre as it sounds, the trait that allowed the Wild to manifest their playoff berth was also the one that doomed them to losing in the opening round for the fifth time in the past six seasons.
One of the arguments for why the Wild could reach the second round was because they won 18 of their 28 one-goal games in the regular season. But to lose not just one, but two games in a row to the Vegas Golden Knights by a single goal in overtime? It represents how, in future seasons, the Wild might not be that far off from reaching the second round for the first time since the 2014-15 season.
Keys to the offseason: They have lots of cap space. That’s not always been the case in Minnesota. But it will be this offseason for a franchise that now has the necessary space to strengthen a roster that’s had to largely rely on its homegrown talent.
One of the questions the Wild must answer, however, is what becomes of Marco Rossi. A first-round pick in 2020, Rossi emerged into a top-six center, but had 14 points throughout February, March and April after he scored that same amount in January. He bounced back to score two goals and three points in the playoffs entering Game 6, but had the third fewest minutes per game of any Wild player.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Maybe more than just making the playoffs? Having more than $20 million in projected cap space is going to make the Wild something of a player in free agency. How they spend that money could then set the expectations for the Wild. Even with that caveat, there is a belief that the 2025-26 season has a chance to be one that sees the Wild get additional offensive help to keep pace in the treacherous Central Division — with the intent of being a team that could create problems for opponents in the postseason.
Projected cap space: $18.44 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 3rd (FLA), 4th (SJ), 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? Ottawa took a crucial step forward by finally making the postseason. It signaled that, after a seven-year absence from the playoff field, the Senators’ rebuild is essentially over. And expectations should increase accordingly.
Ottawa showed it could be a stout defensive team, buying into the structure that first-year head coach Travis Green laid out and refused to back down from until his players embraced executing the right way. The Senators’ young stars — namely Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson — all showed significant growth in their games, and the playoff experience earned should be invaluable to them (and the rest of the Senators) moving forward.
Linus Ullmark also proved he could give Ottawa something it hasn’t had in years: a dependable No. 1 goaltender in whom to feel confident. The Senators’ foundation is on sound, solid ground.
What went wrong? The postseason is a different beast. It’s a lesson that can only be learned — and truly appreciated — once you’ve been there. Ottawa was an average offensive team throughout the regular season (collecting fewer than three goals per game), and its scoring dried up even further in the playoffs (sliding to just two goals per game). The Senators’ penalty kill also repeatedly let them down in the regular season (at 77.7%) and got even worse in the playoffs (68.8%).
Aside from a Game 5 shutout, Ullmark stumbled when the Senators needed him to stand tall, posting a poor .883 save percentage and 2.80 goals-against average in the postseason. It’s not that Ottawa didn’t come close in that first-round series against Toronto — three games were decided in overtime, after all, one of which the Sens won — but the Senators were just too green to take advantage of the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ occasional mistakes.
Now that the Senators have established their defensive game, it’s time they figure out how to bring a consistent offensive effort to match.
Keys to the offseason: The Senators have some in-house decisions to make on a pair of veteran skaters approaching free agency. Claude Giroux has been an integral part of Ottawa’s lineup and dressing room since arriving three seasons ago. If the 37-year-old plans to keep playing, it would behoove the Senators to retain his services, for depth and mentorship.
Then there’s Anton Forsberg. He worked in tandem with Ullmark this season, and should the 32-year-old leave, GM Steve Staios will be determining whom to pair with Ullmark in the coming seasons.
Ottawa has a handful of other forwards who could depart in free agency, so the Senators should expect to be somewhat active in free agency, shoring up their bottom six to ensure they can complement the elite scoring threats they have in Tkachuk, Stutzle & Co. Ottawa worked hard to be in a position where there aren’t many gaps to fill, though. The Senators don’t necessarily need to be splashy, just smart.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Ottawa should absolutely expect to compete for a playoff spot next season. It’s never easy getting over the disappointment of a swift postseason exit, but those frustrations will add fuel to the fire for next season to show that this was only the beginning of the Senators’ next chapter.
Projected cap space: $9.10 million
2025 draft picks: 2nd (LA), 4th (EDM), 5th, 7th, 7th (MIN), 7th (SJ), 7th (UTA)
What went right? Tampa Bay proved it was (still) a powerhouse in the regular season, with a league-leading offense (averaging 3.56 goals per game), a top-five power play (at 25.9%) and arguably the NHL’s best forward in Nikita Kucherov (who paced his peers with 121 points). And the Lightning managed to stay out front even after parting ways with former captain Steven Stamkos. His successor with the C — defenseman Victor Hedman — put in another elite campaign anchoring Tampa Bay’s blue line and penalty kill.
The Lightning’s old hands were up to their same tricks in every area, especially goaltending. Andrei Vasilevskiy earned yet another Vezina Trophy finalist nod on the strength of his season (.921 save percentage, 2.18 goals-against average). Jon Cooper, now far and away the NHL’s longest tenured head coach, capably guided Tampa Bay through the season’s inevitable rough patches, and somehow the Lightning always came out for the better.
They reached the postseason for an eighth straight year to make good on GM Julien BriseBois’ repeated decision to sacrifice long-term possibility (via draft picks) to stay focused on the chance of present-day success.
What went wrong? The Lightning were rightly expected to dominate offensively in the playoffs, too, and, well, it didn’t happen. Tampa Bay averaged the second-fewest goals per game among postseason teams (2.25), and Kucherov was particularly absent, with zero goals in the Lightning’s first four games against the Florida Panthers. And that power play? Nonexistent, at 1-for-15, as Tampa Bay was on the ropes going into Game 5.
The Lightning also had to deal with the theatrics of a physical first-round series that included Matthew Tkachuk‘s blistering hit on Jake Guentzel and losing Brandon Hagel twice (first to a suspension in Game 3 for his hit on Aleksander Barkov, and then to a vicious elbowing by Aaron Ekblad).
That was only part of the story, though. The Lightning were often their own worst enemy. Tampa Bay’s defense let them down in Game 4 when, after the Lightning had held a lead with the potential to tie their series 2-2, a pair of late goals against (scored 11 seconds apart) cost them a victory. It was a tough comedown, having already seen Hagel depart as well. In the end, the Lightning didn’t do enough with their opportunity, and it was over too soon.
Keys to the offseason: Tampa Bay will have some cap space (for once), so BriseBois can get creative to bolster the Lightning next season. What does that look like, exactly?
Is it right for Tampa Bay to try running it back again after a third consecutive first-round exit? Does BriseBois need to change tactics to see the Lightning’s chances improve at that most crucial time of year? BriseBois has mortgaged much of Tampa Bay’s future (via trade of players and picks) to keep pushing their chips in on another Stanley Cup run. Will he be aggressive in pursuing that again? If so, it’s all about the trade and free agent market for Tampa Bay.
The Lightning have just three picks in the first five rounds of the draft (one second, one fourth and a fifth), so maybe BriseBois could leverage those somewhere.
Otherwise, it will just be about filling in the gaps. Nick Perbix is the only UFA of note for BriseBois to consider, but he will want to ensure scoring depth won’t be an issue next year at this time. Adding another goaltender to play with Vasilevskiy (current backup Jonas Johansson is a UFA) would also be prudent.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: The Lightning’s regular-season performance put them in the running for an Atlantic title. It’s hard to think they’ll fall off entirely from there — not after BriseBois went all-in getting Guentzel on a long-term deal and when Kucherov is still in his prime. There’s little doubt Tampa Bay will push to be back in the postseason.
Projected cap space: $10.53 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (CGY), 2nd, 2nd (PIT), 3rd, 3rd (NJ), 3rd (VAN), 4th, 4th (BOS), 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? Montreal reached the postseason in Year 3 of what has been an arduous rebuild. That’s no small feat. The Canadiens stumbled out of the gate this season but didn’t let early adversity deter them from powering through.
When the Canadiens topped Buffalo 5-2 on Nov. 11, it was practically the start of a new season for the team — Montreal went 36-22-9 to the finish line, earning the league’s 11th-best points percentage in that stretch and eventually the Eastern Conference’s final wild-card playoff spot.
It wouldn’t have been possible without some exceptional performances from Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, a breakout showing from rookie defenseman Lane Hutson and strong secondary contributions from Patrik Laine, Juraj Slafkovsky and Jake Evans. Star prospect Ivan Demidov was a nice surprise addition to the playoff roster and did not look out of place.
Coach Martin St. Louis also deserves credit for treating the Canadiens like they deserved to be in playoff contention. That sort of confidence is what fuels a team to exceed expectations — which is exactly what Montreal was able to accomplish.
What went wrong? The Canadiens’ scoring was top-heavy in the regular season, and that caught up to them again in the playoffs. While facing the Washington Capitals was always going to be an uphill battle, Montreal made it harder when, outside of Caufield, Suzuki and Christian Dvorak, they didn’t have many offensive contributors.
Goaltending also became an issue after starter Sam Montembeault was injured in Game 3, to be replaced by backup Jakub Dobes. The latter performed admirably given he had appeared in all of 16 NHL games before the series, but Montreal losing its No. 1 in Montembeault certainly weakened the team as well. Dobes and his defenders lacked effective communication, and it cost the Canadiens on the scoresheet.
In the end, it was the Canadiens’ lack of postseason experience that shuttered their run. Washington capitalized on seemingly every Montreal mistake, learned behavior by a veteran team that has been used to winning. While the Canadiens were impressive in areas such as special teams during their run, it’s the details (like key faceoff wins, for example) that can be daunting. Montreal will have to learn from its mistakes to take positive steps next season.
Keys to the offseason: The way GM Kent Hughes has handled the Canadiens’ rebuild so far — words such as “slow” and “steady” come to mind — suggests he won’t be using Montreal’s playoff tenure as an excuse to start fast-tracking.
The Canadiens have two picks in each of the first two rounds of this draft; those selections will be vital for Montreal as it continues stocking the cupboards with young talent to carry the franchise forward. Hughes will have to address the goaltending situation in some fashion, though, likely with a free agent signee to support Montembeault while Dobes continues to cook in the minors.
And then there’s the club’s scoring depth. Hughes acquired Laine last offseason to boost the Canadiens up front — and he did add 20 goals and 33 points — but the often-injured forward appeared in only 52 games. Montreal needs more from Laine and a couple other skaters Hughes could see playing a top-nine role for the Canadiens. Even when Suzuki and Caufield are rolling, it’s not enough to expect they can carry Montreal’s offense again — especially come playoff time.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Montreal will be in the thick of another fight to earn an Eastern Conference playoff spot. The Atlantic might just be the league’s most competitive division, though. If the Canadiens want to stay in the mix again, some changes should be made to give them a boost over their division rivals.
Projected cap space: $13.86 million
2025 draft picks: 2nd, 2nd (EDM), 3rd (VGK), 4th, 6th, 6th (SJ)
What went right? New Jersey overcame significant adversities this season to be a playoff team. It’s a testament to the Devils’ resiliency that even after losing top skater Jack Hughes in March they managed to stay in the hunt and punch their ticket. The Hughes injury highlighted the seasons that some of New Jersey’s other burgeoning stars were having, including Jesper Bratt (in an 88-point campaign) and Nico Hischier (a dominant two-way center, who scored 35 goals).
The Devils owed a large portion of their success to improved goaltending from Jacob Markstrom — and GM Tom Fitzgerald for finally shoring up that position by acquiring Markstrom in the first place. The veteran was solid in the regular season, and soared during the Devils’ postseason run as one of the best goaltenders in any first-round series.
New Jersey’s first-year head coach Sheldon Keefe managed to implement a solid system and get the Devils to buy in, even when the going got tough. New Jersey should rightly feel good about what a fully healthy lineup can look like moving ahead.
What went wrong? Ah, injuries. They caught up big time for these Devils. Hughes was gone in March, while Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler missed significant time in the regular season before returning. And throughout New Jersey’s playoff run, its defensemen began dropping like flies, with Brenden Dillon, Luke Hughes and Johnathan Kovacevic all missing in action. Not even Markstrom’s brilliance could account for that many important players sitting out.
The Devils didn’t help themselves, though. New Jersey was a whopping 0% on the power play, averaged just 1.75 goals per game and struggled on the penalty kill (69.2%). Outside of Hischier — who collected three goals in the postseason — the Devils simply couldn’t get rolling offensively.
In a way, it’s hard to assess New Jersey’s efforts fully given how banged up it became. How much better might the Devils have been across the board had the infirmary not filled up? We’ll never know. It’s clear that Fitzgerald’s inaction at the trade deadline (where he made minor moves such as adding third-line center Cody Glass and blueliner Brian Dumoulin) hurt New Jersey in the long run.
Keys to the offseason: Fitzgerald has a few things to figure out for the Devils. His top priority is pending restricted free agent Luke Hughes and figuring out what the 21-year-old’s next contract will look like.
Then there’s New Jersey’s goaltending, and who will be Markstrom’s partner next season. Jake Allen is set to hit free agency, and Nico Daws may not be ready for full-time backup duty.
Free agency should be filled with skaters for Fitzgerald to parse through in order to revamp the Devils’ offense. The Devils have five veterans hitting unrestricted free agency, and a pair of RFAs in Glass and Nolan Foote. Inaction didn’t serve New Jersey well in the past, and there’s a need to infuse their lineup with at least a couple viable scoring threats to keep the Devils from turning top-heavy again next season.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: New Jersey has felt notoriously hard to predict in recent years. It has oscillated from winning a playoff round to not making the postseason at all. If the Devils can keep (most) everyone available next year, though — and make some offseason adjustments — they should expect to be top contenders in the Metro again.
The non-playoff teams
Projected cap space: $42.08 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (MIN), 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 7th (VGK)
What went right? Columbus stayed in the playoff race until the final week. That alone is a victory for this group. The Blue Jackets set out to play meaningful hockey in March and April and that’s what they did through a special season that will give Columbus confidence to enter 2025-26 as a viable postseason contender.
Zach Werenski had a Norris Trophy-caliber campaign, with a team-leading 75 points through 76 games. Rising stars Kirill Marchenko, Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli showed their continued maturity in great seasons. Overall, the Blue Jackets’ 11th-ranked offense (with 3.17 goals per game) exceeded expectations. Columbus showed real progress over the course of an emotionally turbulent season.
What went wrong? The Blue Jackets were bitten by the injury bug. Boone Jenner, Erik Gudbranson and Sean Monahan all missed significant time with various ailments. That hurt Columbus from the get-go, with no Jenner or Gudbranson for the first few months of the season.
The Blue Jackets’ goaltending was subpar too, with Elvis Merzlikins owning a middling .892 save percentage as the club’s No. 1. It’s no wonder Columbus finished sixth worst in goals-against average (3.42) and they were among the league’s worst teams in allowing third-period markers. The Blue Jackets’ youth shone through in good ways and bad throughout the year, particularly against tougher opponents, and it’s something they’ll have to learn from for the season ahead.
Keys to the offseason: Columbus has a pair of first-round draft choices to play with this season, and that’s a good thing for GM Don Waddell. He knows how green this franchise still is, and wants to keep building a foundation that the Blue Jackets benefit from for years to come. There are also important RFAs to negotiate with, including Dmitri Voronkov and Daniil Tarasov.
In free agency, Waddell can shift focus to Columbus’ netminding. Merzlikins hasn’t come up with a season save percentage above .900 since 2021-22. Can Columbus expect to take a step forward if Merzlikins is their go-to guy in the crease next year? Can they give the reins to Jet Greaves, who closed out the season with a dominant stretch?
Waddell wasn’t active at the March trade deadline so as not to disrupt his club’s chemistry. This summer he can make some meaningful changes that give the Blue Jackets a solid boost by September’s training camp.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Columbus should be pressing for a playoff berth. They nearly corralled one this season, and the confidence that injected into the team could carry over to next season and beyond. As long as the young players can stay on their positive trajectory, there’s considerable depth for Columbus to lean on.
Projected cap space: $36.21 million
2025 draft picks: 1st (FLA), 1st (NJ), 2nd (COL), 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? The Flames made progress in more ways than one. They went from finishing with 81 points in 2023-24 to challenging for a playoff spot until the final week.
But what might get lost is that they established an identity. Whether it be with their roster, their coaching staff or their front office, change has been a constant with the Flames for the last few seasons. This season saw them attain and then maintain a level of continuity that could see them contend for a playoff spot — if not make the playoffs — next season. Dustin Wolf was a revelation in goal, cementing his status as the Flames’ No. 1 goalie moving forward, and making a Calder Trophy case.
What went wrong? An offensive disconnect. Normally a lack of goals can be traced back to challenges in several areas. But a look under the hood at their underlying numbers paints a confusing picture.
The Flames were top 10 in shots per 60 minutes, and were 13th in scoring chances per 60. Yet they were in the bottom third when it came to high-danger chances per 60. When combined, those factors led to the Flames finishing with the second-fewest goals per game, and having the NHL’s second-worst shooting percentage.
Keys to the offseason: Securing new deals for pending restricted free agents Kevin Bahl, Matt Coronato and Connor Zary is a priority, given what they mean to both the present and future of the Flames.
After those deals are in place, the Flames will still have quite a bit of cap space to address their needs — perhaps with some more consistent sources of offense? Whatever the front office decides, they must do so with the notion of getting one step closer toward reaching the postseason.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Making the playoffs. Whenever teams get this close to a playoff spot without making it, there’s an expectation that the following season should include a playoff berth. Some of that will depend upon what happens in the offseason. Not only with the Flames, but with other clubs in a competitive Western Conference where 11 teams will finish with 89 points or more.
Projected cap space: $39.55 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd (WPG), 3rd, 3rd (TOR), 4th (DET), 5th, 5th (EDM), 6th, 7th
What went right? The team’s young core made progress. Unlike his rookie season, Leo Carlsson wasn’t limited to a certain number of games, and the result was a 20-goal season. Goaltender Lukas Dostal won 20 games, and was in the top 20 in save percentage. Cutter Gauthier flirted with a 20-goal season as a rookie. Jackson LaCombe went from 17 points in 71 games in 2023-24 to having 14 goals and 43 points in 70 games, averaging an additional three minutes of ice time. Mason McTavish had his first 20-goal and 50-point season.
Those players are all key building blocks, and all played a role in the Ducks finishing with more than 70 points after consecutive, sub-60-point seasons.
What went wrong? The defensive infrastructure around Dostal. After finishing the 2023-24 season with a minus-91 goal differential, the Ducks needed to be better in the defensive zone in 2024-25. This season, they did cut the differential to minus-34, which speaks to some progress. But their underlying metrics prove there’s still more work to be done. Natural Stat Trick’s data shows that the Ducks gave up the NHL’s most shots per 60 minutes, the most scoring chances per 60 and the most high-danger chances per 60.
Keys to the offseason: Again, it goes back to the young core. Dostal is a pending restricted free agent and is expected to receive a significant increase from his $812,500 salary. McTavish timed his first 20-goal season well; his entry-level contract ends, meaning he’ll also need to sign a new deal this offseason. Securing those contracts should still give the Ducks quite a bit of cap space as they seek to add more help around their core for the next phase.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: In a way, they appear to be on the same path the Utah Hockey Club took in 2024-25. Although the playoffs might not be in reach next season, the Ducks were nearly at a point-per-game pace. Another year of experience for their core — coupled with what they could do in free agency — could have them contending for a wild-card spot until next season’s final weeks.
Projected cap space: $27.14 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd (CAR), 2nd (STL), 3rd, 4th (PHI), 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? The best thing Boston did this season was lean all the way into a rebuild. It was inevitable that after a decade of perennial playoff contention the Bruins were going to take a step back — and take stock. GM Don Sweeney’s early coaching change — from Jim Montgomery to Joe Sacco — didn’t give Boston a boost, and by the trade deadline it was smart for Sweeney to be a big-time seller. The Bruins acquired valuable draft capital — including four picks in the first and second rounds — and they added some intriguing new faces such as Casey Mittelstadt and Fraser Minten. Some burgeoning late-season chemistry between David Pastrnak and Morgan Geekie is a nice bonus for the Bruins as a potential pairing to watch.
What went wrong? Boston lost seven of its first 11 games. That was hardly a good omen for what was ahead. The Bruins’ calling card has long been its defensive play, so losing top defenseman Hampus Lindholm to a season-ending patella fracture in mid-November was crushing. Montgomery was fired the same week. Jeremy Swayman — following a contentious contract dispute — was mediocre in net. And there was little help from the Bruins’ offense in making up for any of their defensive and goaltending issues. Boston is 29th in scoring, averaging just 2.63 goals per game, and on the power play (15.5%).
Charlie McAvoy‘s upper-body injury in early February at the 4 Nations Face-Off was another gut punch. It’s no wonder Sweeney keyed on major changes — such as moving on from captain Brad Marchand — considering how much these Bruins pale in comparison to what previous teams produced.
Keys to the offseason: The Bruins need a permanent head coach. Sweeney could opt to remove Sacco’s interim tag or explore who else is available. Once Sweeney has that person in place, they can start preparing for an important upcoming draft in which Boston will have a high first-round selection and two picks in the second round. Those picks take on a greater meaning now considering the Bruins don’t have a deep prospect pool. The focus then shifts to determining which of Boston’s young players will be ready to take a leap in the NHL, and how the Bruins will prioritize adding veteran players around them in free agency. The rebuild will be in full swing.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Boston still has a 40-goal scorer in Pastrnak. If Lindholm and McAvoy return to full health, and Swayman can be a game-changer in net again, there’s hope for the Bruins to be a fun club to watch — if not one that reaches the playoffs after a one-year absence. It’s not as if they’re starting from scratch.
Projected cap space: $22.32 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th (MIN), 5th, 6th, 7th, 7th (NSH), 7th (WSH)
What went right? Buffalo proved this season it is capable of being a playoff team. The Sabres overcame a slow start to hold a postseason slot at Thanksgiving, which is often a good indicator of a club’s potential to stay there through the season. Tage Thompson had a terrific season, scoring 44 goals and averaging a point per game; when the Sabres do finally break through, they’ll have him in large part to thank for keeping their offensive engine going. Rasmus Dahlin also continues to be a standout with 62 points from the back end.
GM Kevyn Adams was able to trade underperforming Dylan Cozens and added Josh Norris (injured for most of his Sabres’ tenure to date) for the future.
What went wrong? The Sabres have failed to qualify for the playoffs in 14 straight seasons. That’s tied with the New York Jets for the longest active drought in major professional sports. But Buffalo had its chance. The Sabres were in the mix until a 13-game winless streak through December torpedoed things. And Adams didn’t do anything at the trade deadline to make Buffalo better despite its many flaws. The Sabres’ collective goaltending was awful, with the league’s second-worst save percentage. Buffalo gives up the fourth-most goals per game (3.47) and that’s all the more disappointing considering the Sabres are seventh in scoring (3.27).
The Sabres can be their own worst enemy. Ditto with how Buffalo started strong — with the third-most first period goals — only to offer up the fourth most in the third period. The Sabres’ attention to detail wasn’t where it needed to be, and expected growth from players such as Jack Quinn and Zach Benson didn’t materialize.
Keys to the offseason: This was Adams’ fifth season in Buffalo — all, obviously, without a playoff appearance. Will ownership keep him on for another kick at that can? It was Adams who installed Lindy Ruff as coach (again) last season, and that alone might keep Adams around. The Sabres have several personnel decisions to make from there. Quinn, JJ Peterka, Bowen Byram, Devon Levi and Ryan McLeod are all restricted free agents. Who will Buffalo retain — and who winds up without a qualifying offer?
Then it’s on to additions from the outside. The Sabres need stronger goaltending next season, and if Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Levi can’t provide it as a tandem, then Adams must explore the market for a veteran who can either support one of them or take the reins as a No. 1. That would go a long way in supporting Buffalo toward consistently being the team it has been of late, winning 10 of 13 through March into April — when, unfortunately, it was all too little, too late.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Dare we say it? Playoffs. That’s where Buffalo absolutely must get. And they have the talent to do it. It’s on management to fill in the gaps and get the Sabres out of their historic skid.
Projected cap space: $29.17 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (TOR), 2nd, 2nd (DAL), 3rd, 4th, 4th (NYR), 6th, 7th
What went right? The Seth Jones trade. After Jones told Blackhawks management that he wanted to be moved to a contender, how would they strike a deal for a player with three more years on his contract worth $9.5 million annually?
Blackhawks GM Kyle Davidson found a suitor in the Panthers, and received a 2026 first-round pick and goalie Spencer Knight, while retaining $2.5 million of Jones’ salary each of the remaining seasons. The trade got the Blackhawks their goalie of the present and future in Knight, and provided them with another first-round pick for 2026, extending a streak of multiple first-round picks dating to 2022.
What went wrong? There was only nominal improvement after one of the more aggressive free agency windows of any team last offseason. They had 22 wins through 78 games, and though they trimmed their goal differential from minus-111 in 2023-24 to minus-74, it was still a season of frustration that peaked with the firing of coach Luke Richardson after 26 games, replacing him with interim coach Anders Sorensen.
Keys to the offseason: Does Sorensen get the full-time coaching job, or do the Blackhawks go in another direction? There’s also a discussion about what to do with Ryan Donato, who led the team in goals this season. Donato is a pending unrestricted free agent, who is having the best season of his career. The Blackhawks obviously have the cap space, but might it be better spent elsewhere?
Once they have agreed upon new deals for their four-player restricted free agent class that includes Philipp Kurashev and Arvid Soderblom, the Blackhawks could use the remaining money while having one eye on what lies ahead after the 2025-26 season.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Next season will be a crucial one, mainly because another season without significant progress could prompt the front office to face bigger questions; after all, the Blackhawks are looking to reach the 70-point plateau for the first time since 2019-20.
So, what does the future look like? Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar and Knight, who are all central to their future plans, are going to be entering the final years of their respective deals. Bedard and Nazar are coming off their entry-level contracts, and Knight would be seeking his third deal — but his first as a No. 1 goalie.
Projected cap space: $22.98 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd (NYR), 4th (TB), 5th, 6th, 7th, 7th (STL)
What went right? Detroit showed its tenacity and resilience multiple times this season. The Red Wings overcame a slow start by leaning into a coaching change — from Derek Lalonde to Todd McLellan — that ignited the team’s December surge into a playoff spot. Detroit fell in and out of contention until February and looked ready to go on a run. Leading that charge was captain Dylan Larkin — with 29 goals this season — and Lucas Raymond, who leads Detroit in points with 75. Raymond’s development has been especially positive for Detroit and signals how he can continue carrying their offense into the future. The Red Wings also must feel good about being buoyed by a fourth-ranked power play (27.6%).
What went wrong? The Red Wings’ defensive play has been a hindrance for years. This season was no exception. Detroit gave up the 12th-most goals against per game (3.14), while ranking 23rd in scoring (2.81). That’s a tough combination to overcome. The Red Wings’ putrid penalty kill was also worst in the league (69.6%), another indication of their defensive deficiencies.
GM Steve Yzerman didn’t do much at the trade deadline to address any of the Red Wings’ problems, and Yzerman’s continued failure to add impact players in free agency is showing in how Detroit continues to stop short of reaching the playoffs. The Red Wings need consistency, and a strong defensive structure players buy into and can execute. There wasn’t enough of it this season to get Detroit out of its nine-year playoff drought.
Keys to the offseason: Yzerman isn’t one for making wild moves. But even he must be open to trying something new. There are internal choices to make, including on key RFAs Albert Johansson and Elmer Soderblom, and veterans Patrick Kane and Alex Lyon are both pending UFAs. How drastic Yzerman gets in terms of personnel turnover could foretell where Detroit goes from here.
The Red Wings need more scoring and have been top-heavy in that respect, relying on Larkin, Raymond and Alex DeBrincat for a large chunk of their output. Improving depth there, with proven defense-minded talent, will help the Red Wings keep up with their Atlantic rivals. Generally boosting the blue line wouldn’t hurt, either.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Detroit has playoff potential. They’ve shown it repeatedly. The Red Wings’ goal going into next season should be as contenders for the postseason. The question is whether Yzerman provides Detroit with more resources to get there.
Projected cap space: $17.26 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (TB), 1st (VGK), 2nd, 2nd (TB), 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 6th (COL)
What went right? Their prospects. Of note, Matthew Wood averaged more than a point per game at the University of Minnesota before signing a professional contract. Joey Willis went from scoring 29 goals in his first two OHL seasons combined to having 27 goals this season. At the NHL level, Justin Barron, Zachary L’Heureux and Fedor Svechkov had expanded ice time.
What went wrong? Everything else. They went from being a playoff team that spent big in free agency to get Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, Brady Skjei and Luke Schenn to having the third-worst record in the NHL. They were consistently disconnected. They are sixth in shots per game, but last in goals per game. They have one of the top 10 penalty kills yet gave up the seventh-most goals per game.
Keys to the offseason: With three first-round picks and more than $17 million in cap space, the Preds have options — especially if their first-round pick becomes the No. 1 pick via the draft lottery. But the Predators are trying to find a way that allows them to win now and in the future. It’s why they began shifting course toward playing young players after a poor start to the season. Now it’s all about strengthening that plan as they seek to recover from one of the more trying seasons in franchise history.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: The Preds can go in a number of directions. They entered the 2023-24 season as a team on the rise and made the playoffs. They entered 2024-25 as a team that could be in the conference finals discussion before ending up in the lottery. If they aren’t in the playoff mix next spring, there will be some big questions for the front office to answer.
Projected cap space: $28.90 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? The Islanders showed determination by putting themselves into a contending position this season, particularly during an 11-3-0 run through January ahead of the 4 Nations Face-Off break. They benefited from some terrific individual performances along the way, most notably from Bo Horvat (with a team-leading 54 points) and Anders Lee (pacing New York with 28 goals).
Noah Dobson continued to show why he’s one of the league’s burgeoning stars on the back end and Alexander Romanov appears increasingly comfortable in his role. GM Lou Lamoriello also deserves credit for the tidy trade of Brock Nelson, which primarily netted New York (among other things) a first-round pick in 2026 NHL draft and promising prospect in Calum Ritchie.
What went wrong? The Islanders failed to truly excel in any category. They’re 25th in the scoring (averaging 2.77 goals per game) and gave up the 13th-most goals against (3.14), with a putrid, 31st-ranked power play (13.1%) and equally awful penalty kill (72.0%). Losing Mathew Barzal to injury for all but 30 games this season certainly took its toll in basically every respect. Starting goaltender Ilya Sorokin has been fine (with a .905 save percentage) but hardly the spectacular figure he was in helping New York reach the playoffs in recent seasons.
The Islanders didn’t have enough difference-makers, and Lamoriello did not bring anyone on board before the trade deadline. In fact, Lamoriello held onto guys such as Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Kyle Palmieri — a pending UFA — and seemingly missed out on a chance to add draft assets for a much-needed overhaul. By the time head coach Patrick Roy was publicly calling out forward Anthony Duclair and subsequently seeing Duclair take a leave of absence from the team, it was clear how tensions were boiling over.
Keys to the offseason: New York must at least consider taking a big swing. But is Lamoriello going to do that? The Islanders should have about $28 million in cap space to use for next season, and they’ve got a couple of high draft picks. It’s time to decide though what direction the franchise is headed. Can Lamoriello steer this group back to contending status? Or is a rebuild on deck?
There are also critical personnel decisions to make. The Islanders have a large collection of pending RFAs, including Dobson, Romanov, Scott Perunovich, and Adam Boqvist. Who New York keeps will have a major impact on their blue line. The Islanders again need to address their scoring depth. Barzal’s absence absolutely hurt New York. Shoring up the offense so it can withstand injury will go a long way. But step one is getting honest about where the organization is right now, and whether they keep pushing to compete in the Metro or take a step back and retool.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: The Islanders sputtered this season after making consecutive playoff appearances — both with first-round exits. Unless there’s some significant changes in the offseason, one-and-done in the postseason is about as good as New York can expect.
Projected cap space: $9.67 million
2025 draft picks: 2nd, 3rd (SEA), 4th (ANA), 4th (COL), 5th (MIN), 6th, 6th (SEA), 7th
What went right? New York didn’t need any added distractions this season, so the fact GM Chris Drury was able to offload underperforming former captain Jacob Trouba early was a shrewd move and kept the Rangers from dwelling on that particular problem all season. The Kaapo Kakko trade was a necessary swap as well that was swiftly handled. And bringing on J.T. Miller was, at least, an attempt to give New York a needed boost up front.
Meanwhile, New York saw growth from some of its young players, especially Will Cuylle (with a career-high 20 goals and 43 points this season). Artemi Panarin has done his part to lead the Rangers on offense (37 goals and 87 points) and Adam Fox anchored the blue line with trademark efficiency.
What went wrong? Oh boy. Are the Rangers this season’s biggest disappointment? It’s hard to argue otherwise. Last season’s Presidents’ Trophy winners are a shadow of their former (114-point) selves. All the previous characteristics New York displayed as regular-season champions evaporated. The Rangers lacked consistency (they haven’t won three games in a row since November), veteran contributions (Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider have been particularly lackluster), a functional power play (ranked 27th at 17.6%) and failed time and again to show any sort of resiliency (they have won five games all season when trailing by one in the third period).
The lack of urgency and determination that elevated New York teams of the past has been missing. But why? Was it the rumored locker room issues? Has coach Peter Laviolette’s message been falling on deaf ears? Whatever the reason, New York never truly put its game together. To be officially eliminated from the postseason in a dispiriting 7-3 loss to Carolina on Saturday was a fitting salvo in a lost season.
Keys to the offseason: Can Laviolette survive to coach another season? That’s question No. 1 — and a bafflingly one to even be considering given he led the Rangers to their best regular season the season before. But it seems inevitable New York is going to make drastic changes after this clunker of a season.
Next, Drury must assess this Rangers’ core and figure out who to build around, and who to move out. The way Kreider and Zibanejad have struggled could lead Drury to find them new homes. And New York’s blue line is probably in need of a redo given the Rangers gave up the 14th-most goals against (3.10) and that’s with one of the league’s better goalie tandems in Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick. It’s not as if New York has to tear it all down. Drury must identify where the biggest leaks this season came from and do what’s necessary to patch the holes.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: New York can easily be a playoff team again next season. But it will require some form of change. To stand pat would send the wrong message about how poorly the Rangers performed this season. A chip on the shoulder will help New York get back to its potential.
Projected cap space: $25.64 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (COL), 1st (EDM), 2nd, 2nd (ANA), 2nd (CGY), 2nd (CBJ), 3rd, 5th, 5th (CAR), 6th
What went right? Philadelphia had its moments. The arrival of Matvei Michkov signaled the start of a new era for the Flyers in which Michkov — a 20-year-old dynamo leading all NHL rookies with 24 goals — has seemingly unlimited potential to drive their offense into the future. And Philadelphia has other young players — such as last year’s No. 13 pick Jett Luchanko — to be excited about too after his brief NHL audition.
The Flyers’ old guard wasn’t all bad, either. Travis Konecny had another strong season with a career high in points ahead of his long-term extension starting next season. Ultimately, Philadelphia can’t stay in a rebuild mode forever and it was positive to see GM Danny Briere actually make some moves — such as trading Joel Farabee and Scott Laughton and firing coach John Tortorella — to help kick-start Philadelphia into 2025-26.
What went wrong? The Flyers were too big a mess in too many key categories. Philadelphia’s collection of goaltenders produced a woeful .888 save percentage at even strength, the worst recorded by a team since 2009-10. Samuel Ersson wasn’t the reliable No. 1 the Flyers needed, and it showed too often in how games slipped away. Philadelphia’s putrid power play was another problem — 30th in the league (14.9%) — and a 24th-ranked offense hasn’t been much help. By the time Philadelphia had lost 11 of 12 through mid-March, it was no surprise Tortorella was gone. Something is clearly still missing in Philadelphia.
Keys to the offseason: First, Philadelphia needs a head coach. Briere will decide quickly whether that’s via removing the interim tag from Brad Shaw or a new addition. There’s much work to be done with the next permanent bench boss in place.
Philadelphia absolutely must capitalize in the draft. They hold three first-round picks and four second-round choices. There’s a chance if the Flyers draft high enough that one of those first-rounders steps into their lineup at some point next season. Briere must be smart in how he cashes in on that capital. Then it’s all about development. Philadelphia doesn’t project to be overly active in free agency given the amount of talent it already has in the NHL and waiting in the wings. What the Flyers need are for those players to take steps forward so when training camp comes around there is serious competition for spots, and it sets up Philadelphia for a competitive season.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: This is the fifth consecutive season Philadelphia has missed the postseason. The Flyers must at least challenge well into April for a spot next season. Briere has been patient with this group continuing to grow and it’s about time those investments paid dividends.
Projected cap space: $24.58 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (NYR), 2nd (WSH), 3rd, 3rd (MIN), 3rd (OTT), 4th, 5th (CHI), 5th (NYR), 6th, 7th
What went right? Pittsburgh can always count on Sidney Crosby to breathe some sort of life into their season, and the captain delivered again with a 30-goal campaign that suggests the 37-year-old isn’t slowing down. And that’s a great thing — because the Penguins’ recent youth movement might signal brighter days ahead. GM Kyle Dubas brought up Rutger McGroarty — acquired via trade earlier this season — and Ville Koivunen to get Pittsburgh’s next wave ready with some NHL experience. Smart decision. The Penguins needed to end the season on a high note, and showcasing what the franchise has coming seemed invigorating for old and new skaters alike.
What went wrong? It was death by a thousand cuts in Pittsburgh. The Penguins don’t have the depth to compete with other Eastern Conference powerhouses — outside of their top line (with Crosby, Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust mostly), there wasn’t enough consistent scoring. Even Evgeni Malkin struggled with only 15 goals this season.
That dearth of scoring issue was amplified by the Penguins’ problems keeping pucks out of their net. Tristan Jarry flamed out as the team’s expected No. 1 goaltender, being demoted to the AHL along with his 3.31 goals-against average and .884 save percentage through mid-January. To be fair, Jarry (and the Penguins other netminders) got no help from a leaky blue line that surrounded the second-most goals per game (3.58) this season. It would have challenged Pittsburgh to overcome its issues in only one phase of the game, let alone all three.
Keys to the offseason: Pittsburgh doesn’t appear close to firing coach Mike Sullivan, so that allows the Penguins to hit the ground running again in figuring out how to capitalize on its youth movement. McGroarty and Koivunen will be counted on to compete for slots in training camp.
Then it’s on Dubas to address the Penguins’ lack of scoring with some strategic veteran additions. The market should play out in Pittsburgh’s favor there — and offering the incentive of potentially skating alongside Crosby never hurts in a negotiation. And the Penguins’ defense? It can’t stand as is. If Dubas is still trying to avoid a full-scale rebuild, then it’s crucial to use this offseason to find roster balance between the Penguins’ present and future additions. Some degree of outside help is required to make that happen.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: It’s not reasonable to say Pittsburgh makes it back to the playoffs — unless there are some key changes. If the Penguins rightly address their leaks, then there’s talent enough to put Pittsburgh back as a playoff contender. But that’s a mighty large question as this season comes to a close.
Projected cap space: $42.19 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (DAL), 2nd, 2nd (OTT), 3rd (COL), 4th (STL), 4th (WPG), 5th (COL), 7th (NJ)
What went right? The blueprint for the future. Star rookie center Macklin Celebrini leads the team in points, and fellow star rookie forward Will Smith is fifth. They used the trade deadline to add a pair of first-round picks; they’ll have two first-rounders in 2025 and again in 2026, continuing a trend since 2023. Even though they’re going to finish with the NHL’s worst record for a consecutive season, the Sharks have already shown some sense of improvement given they went from a minus-150 goal difference to minus-98 entering the final week of the regular season.
What went wrong? Well, there was quite a bit. But that’s to be expected whenever a team is in the midst of a rebuild.
The Sharks were in the bottom 10 in goals per game, the power play, scoring chances per 60 minutes, shots per 60 and high-danger chances per 60, which explains their offensive struggles. On defense, they gave up the most goals per game, had the worst penalty kill, and were in the bottom 10 in most scoring chances allowed per 60, most shots allowed per 60 and most high-danger chances allowed per 60.
Keys to the offseason: Do they get the No. 1 pick for a consecutive year? Or will it be No. 2 or No. 3? Whatever happens, this will be the third straight draft cycle and the fourth time in the past five in which the Sharks have a lottery pick. Picking that high along with having a second first-round pick will certainly advance their rebuild.
Then there’s the fact they’ll have more than $42 million in cap space, which can be used to address their roster — with the caveat that the Sharks might not be major players in free agency for at least a few more years.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Continuing to watch the progress made by Yaroslav Askarov, William Eklund, Celebrini and Smith, among others, is going to be the priority. The Sharks will seek to make more improvements while further developing those franchise cornerstones in Ryan Warsofsky’s second year behind the bench. But there’s also a possibility the Sharks could either sign players in free agency or move on from players on their current roster ahead of the deadline to add even more draft capital for their future plans.
Projected cap space: $21.75 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 2nd (TOR), 4th, 4th (DAL), 5th, 7th
What went right? All three of the trades they made this season. Moving on from Will Borgen led to them getting a one-time No. 2 overall pick in Kaapo Kakko, plus draft capital. At the trade deadline, they acquired a pair of first-round picks in 2026 and 2027 in exchange for Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde. Parting ways with Brandon Tanev netted them a second-round pick in the 2027 draft. Kakko has 10 goals and 29 points in 46 games for the Kraken as part of a season in which he set a career high with 43 points.
What went wrong? Between their underlying defensive metrics and the fact they sent Philipp Grubauer to the AHL? It wasn’t the most consistent season for the Kraken when it came to goal prevention. Having a new coaching staff included the departure of assistant coach Jay Leach, who played a crucial role in the Kraken’s defensive identity. This season, they were in the bottom 10 in shots allowed per 60 minutes, scoring chances allowed per 60 and high-danger chances allowed per 60. The underperformance from Grubauer didn’t help, and in fact, Joey Daccord (who began as the backup) was one of their more consistent performers.
Keys to the offseason: Dan Bylsma’s coaching staff helped pull the Kraken from the bottom five in goals per game in 2023-24 to being around league average this season. Could they find a defensive version of that solution heading into 2025-26, with the idea that it might provide the Kraken with the consistency that has eluded them as a franchise? That is one of the most significant questions facing the Kraken now that they have missed the playoffs in three of their first four seasons.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: The Kraken must be in contention for a wild-card spot (at minimum), or there will be some big questions to answer for the front office at this time next year.
Projected cap space: $21.53 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th
What went right? Quite a bit. The trade during draft weekend for franchise defenseman Mikhail Sergachev set the stage for a season in which the franchise made real strides. Before moving to Salt Lake City, the Arizona Coyotes had one 80-point season since 2014-15. The Utah Hockey Club had 84 points with four games left. The team was still fighting for a playoff berth entering the final two weeks of the regular season, which was another step forward for the core — and proves that bigger things could be on the horizon.
What went wrong? Overtime and shootouts. Entering the final two weeks of the regular season, only the Flames and Canucks had more overtime losses than Utah, two teams that were also chasing a Western Conference wild-card spot. But losing those 12 games in overtime or a shootout demonstrates how Utah was close in many games. If it can get on the winning end of those extra-time coin flips next season, the results will be different too.
Keys to the offseason: Remember how the Coyotes were hamstrung by a need to be miserly with cap space? The Utah Hockey Club doesn’t have that issue. That much was made clear last offseason when GM Bill Armstrong invested $22 million for each of the next two seasons in bolstering the defensive unit. Utah will have more than $21 million in space this summer, which is enough to improve a roster that could seriously challenge for a playoff spot. A top priority? Improving an offense that was 21st in goals per game, with a power play that was 15th.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Making the playoffs. It’s really that simple. Utah has a core that has gone through its growing pains. It’s a group that has shown it can make progress from one year to the next. Nearly the entire roster is either under contract or team control for next season, and the front office has enough cap space to add the sort of players who could help clinch a playoff berth in the club’s second season in Salt Lake.
Projected cap space: $15.08 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd (SJ), 4th (OTT), 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? Despite all the inconsistencies, the numerous injuries to key players, and the J.T. Miller-Elias Pettersson friction, the Canucks were still in the hunt for a wild-card berth entering the final two weeks of the regular season. Yes, there were those who had strong individual seasons, including reigning Norris Trophy winner Quinn Hughes and Pius Suter, who had his first 20-goal effort and more than 40 points. But those performances could only get the Canucks so far, in a season in which they will miss the playoffs after winning their division and coming within a game of the conference finals a year earlier.
What went wrong? All those inconsistencies, those numerous injuries and the Miller-Pettersson friction.
One detail that speaks to those inconsistencies is that the Canucks were among the top five in the NHL in terms of fewest shots allowed per 60 minutes and scoring chances allowed per 60 — and yet were 19th in goals allowed per game. It’s what made the need for scoring depth even more crucial. This became more evident in the wake of trading Miller to the Rangers and trying to find ways to replace a forward with three consecutive seasons of more than 80 points.
Keys to the offseason: What happens to head coach Rick Tocchet? Does he stay on his one-year option as a bridge to a longer-term contract? Or could he be swayed to leave, which would then leave the Canucks searching for a fourth coach since 2020?
After the coaching situation is resolved, what happens to Brock Boeser? A six-time 20-goal scorer, he’s a pending UFA who could command a significant payday should he reach the open market. Do the Canucks ink him to a long-term deal?
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Add the Canucks to the list of teams whose situation could become clearer once free agency ends. They have most of their team either under contract or team control for next season. But two of their three leading goal scorers — Boeser and Suter — are pending UFAs, whereas there is also uncertainty surrounding Tocchet.
Getting those questions answered along with addressing their other concerns could provide a stronger grasp for how the Canucks navigate next season. But a return to the postseason is certainly within grasp.
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Bill Connelly
To be the man, you have to beat the man. It’s the mantra of Charlotte-based wrestling great Ric Flair, and it pretty reliably describes the annual title race in the Charlotte-based ACC. For 14 straight years, the ACC crown has gone to either Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers or to someone who managed to beat them in the regular season.
Over the past 10 of those 14 years, Clemson has won eight titles. Even as the Tigers’ status as a national championship contender diminished — they’ve finished from 13th to 20th in the AP poll for four consecutive years after six straight top-four finishes — they’ve split the past four conference titles. Last year they became the first bid thief of the expanded College Football Playoff era, knocking off SMU in Charlotte to nab the final playoff berth over Alabama. And with the highest returning production percentage in the country, the Tigers not only head into 2025 as obvious favorites to defend their crown, but they are also garnering top-five hype.
I’ve been pretty skeptical about the latter hype — we’ll talk plenty about that below — but there’s no question the Tigers enter 2025 as the ACC’s most likely champion. Who else might contend? Will SMU charge back after coming so close to a title in its conference debut? Can Miami finally get the offense and defense functional at the same time? Since beating Clemson in the regular season is evidently a prerequisite to ACC glory, can someone such as Louisville or Duke take advantage of opportunities? And what the heck is Florida State capable of after suffering the end-all, be-all of collapses in 2024?
The most geographically ridiculous conference in major college football has countless storylines heading into the fall. Let’s preview the ACC!
Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another FBS conference, ultimately including all 136 FBS teams. The previews include 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules. Here are the MAC, Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt, AAC and Indie/Pac-12 previews.
2024 recap
Though Clemson indeed won the race, the ACC’s journey through 2024 was fascinating, with Cal (and its online fan base) generating early buzz and bringing “College GameDay” to town, Florida State suffering a historic collapse, Miami reaching as high as fourth in the polls during a 9-0 start, Georgia Tech scoring a couple of stirring upset wins (and nearly getting a third), Duke and Syracuse each riding close wins to big seasons (they were a combined 13-3 in one-score finishes) and SMU rolling to an 8-0 regular season in ACC play — after nearly losing to Nevada in the season opener and making an early quarterback change, no less.
Louisville lost three conference games by a touchdown or less, Miami’s defense no-showed down the stretch, and after looking like they were in the middle of a lost season (by Clemson standards), there the Tigers were to swoop in, land a spot in the title game and beat SMU with a field goal at the buzzer in one of the best games of the year.
Both Clemson and SMU reached — and lost in the first round of — the College Football Playoff, capping a madcap season.
Oh yeah, and then North Carolina hired Bill Belichick. Can’t forget that.
Continuity table
The continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2024 FBS starts from returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very hard to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.
Though the national average for returning production is around just 53% this season, the ACC is one of three conferences (along with the Big 12 and SEC) to average 59% or higher. Clemson, at 80%, leads the way nationally, and seven other teams are at 60% or better. The Tigers hit that number in a few different ways. Swinney added three transfers to the Clemson roster, a mammoth number by his standards, but Clemson still does less portal work than any non-service academy in the country. Others, such as Stanford, Pitt and Boston College, don’t do much either. BC actually joins a strange club: Of the teams in the six conferences I’ve previewed to date, only BC, Ball State and Missouri State have fewer than 10 incoming starts from transfers and fewer than 10 redshirt freshman. It’s a pretty odd combination.
Jeff Brohm’s Louisville, meanwhile, does more portal work than most, and among the top teams in the returning production column, Miami, Louisville, FSU and Duke all got there in part through the addition of transfer quarterbacks.
2025 projections
We have some pretty big stratification at the top, where ACC No. 1 Clemson and No. 3 SMU are separated by 10.2 points, larger than the difference between No. 6 Duke and No. 16 Wake. The Tigers are projected favorites of at least 12 points in seven of eight league games and could get their biggest tests from a pair of nonconference matchups against the SEC — LSU’s visit in Week 1 and the trip to South Carolina in the regular-season finale.
Miami’s rating might be a bit surprising. The Hurricanes obviously benefit from how ridiculously good last year’s offense was — they’re still projected to have the best offense in the country despite losing basically eight starters. That will be a high bar to clear, but the defense has a chance to improve beyond 44th, too. We’ll see.
Because of the volatility baked into the projections, Clemson has only about a 2-in-7 chance of winning the league, and Miami, SMU and Louisville could each make a run to the title game. NC State, meanwhile, has a pretty workable conference schedule if you’re looking for a random sleeper.
Five best games of 2025
Here are the four conference games that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin under 10 points, plus a mammoth Week 1 nonconference game.
LSU at Clemson (Aug. 30). There are a couple of other huge ACC nonconference games — Notre Dame at Miami in Week 1 and Clemson-South Carolina at the end — but I love this game showing up in Week 1 because there aren’t many teams I have more questions about than LSU and Clemson. Let’s get a bunch of those questions answered right away.
Miami at Florida State (Oct. 4). At this point, Miami will have already hosted Notre Dame and Florida in nonconference play. But the Canes’ ACC opener in Tallahassee will tell us a ton about both teams.
Louisville at Miami (Oct. 17). One of the bigger Friday night games of the season. Louisville hosts Clemson in November, but the Cardinals’ ACC title hopes might require them to win either this one or at SMU in late November.
Miami at SMU (Nov. 1). Miami has three games on this list within a month of each other. Because Clemson’s projections are so favorable, Miami might be the most important team in the title race — if the Canes don’t make it to Charlotte for the league title game, they will have a huge role to play in who does.
Clemson at Louisville (Nov. 14). Clemson’s tightest projected conference game. The Tigers have to visit Louisville a year after the Cardinals smothered them 33-21 in Death Valley East.
Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders
Head coach: Dabo Swinney (17th year, 180-47 overall)
2025 projection: eighth in SP+, 10.0 average wins (6.8 in the ACC)
Hey there, Tigers fans. More than any other fan base this offseason, you guys have accused me of hating your team because of how open I’ve been in my skepticism toward its top-five bona fides. We’ll get to that, but I should note that none of that skepticism applies to the ACC race.
Again, the national average for returning production at the moment is about 53%. Clemson’s is 80%. The Tigers bring back quarterback Cade Klubnik (3,639 yards, 36 TDs last season) and three of his top four receivers in junior Antonio Williams and sophomores Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore (combined: 2,263 yards and 21 TDs last year). Plus, sophomore Tyler Brown, injured in 2024, returns after catching 52 passes in 2023. Throw in the rarest of Clemson rarities, an incoming transfer receiver — Tristan Smith (934 yards and six TDs at SE Missouri State) — and you’ve got a tantalizing skill corps even with the loss of leading rusher Phil Mafah. (Sophomore back Jay Haynes easily topped Mafah by averaging 6.9 yards per carry in a small sample, though he’s coming back from a late-season ACL tear.)
Anchoring all this talent is what should be Clemson’s best offensive line in ages, one that returns four senior starters, including all-conference right tackle Blake Miller. The Tigers jumped to 16th in offensive SP+ last season — a far cry from where the Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence offenses ranked but a vast improvement over the 2021-23 units, which averaged a 50.3 ranking. If huge returning production results in improvement (and it frequently does), they could easily have their first top-10 offense in a half decade.
The defense, meanwhile, was ridiculously young in 2024. Eighteen defenders saw at least 200 snaps, 13 of them return and nine are still only sophomores or juniors. That includes absolute stars in end T.J. Parker (11 sacks, 17 run stops), tackle Peter Woods (7.5 tackles for loss at 315 pounds), linebacker Sammy Brown (11.5 TFLs, five sacks) and corner Avieon Terrell (five TFLs, 13 passes defended), plus the rare senior in linebacker Wade Woodaz (15 run stops). And Purdue DE transfer Will Heldt (11 TFLs on a dismal defense) could add some star power as well. After the defense got worse for three straight years under coordinator Wes Goodwin, Swinney sought out a steadier set of hands in former Penn State DC Tom Allen. Improvement is likely, and a first defensive SP+ top-10 ranking since 2021 isn’t out of the question.
It’s a no-brainer to place Clemson atop the ACC pile. That makes the Tigers one of the surest picks to make the CFP. Where I struggle is when it comes to envisioning them winning three to four playoff games.
For starters, with all of those playmakers, Clemson’s defense ranked only 51st in success rate allowed and 103rd in yards allowed per successful play and registered its worst SP+ ranking (29th) since 2012. The run defense was mediocre even with Woods’ efforts up front, and the pass defense was merely good, not great.
The Tigers didn’t stand out in terms of offensive explosiveness either. Mafah and Haynes produced some lovely big runs, but the Tigers ranked 80th in yards per successful dropback, and Klubnik averaged just 11.7 yards per completion, even with some random explosiveness from Wesco and Moore. They could obviously be capable of far more, but I fear the preseason top-five rankings are overreactions to just a couple of big catches from Moore in the CFP loss to Texas. Plus, Clemson benefited significantly from turnover luck, especially in the ACC title game, and without those bounces in Charlotte, there’s no way we’re talking about a top-five team here.
But that’s the hater talking, I guess. I’m excited about watching Clemson in 2025, primarily because we’ll get to find out exactly what a Swinney program is capable of in the mid-2020s. If the Tigers are ever going to be elite again, you figure it’s going to come with this wonderfully experienced team. If the offense, which has lacked pop for years, is ever going to produce lots of explosions again, it will be with Klubnik distributing to Wesco, Moore, Haynes & Co. If the defense is going to rebound, it’s going to be with this combination of experience and a new, proven DC. It’s going to be a lot of fun finding out what the Tigers can do. And there’s a chance they prove this hater wrong.
Head coach: Mario Cristobal (fourth year, 22-16 overall)
2025 projection: 12th in SP+, 9.2 average wins (6.3 in the ACC)
I just can’t get past it. Trailing by seven points and facing a fourth-and-goal from the Syracuse 10 with under four minutes remaining, Cristobal took the ball out of No. 1 pick Cam Ward’s hands and elected to kick a field goal, hoping that his defense, which had given up touchdowns in four of five possessions and had no-showed for most of the previous two months, could make one last stop. It was painfully obvious that it wouldn’t. And it didn’t. Ward didn’t touch the ball again, and Miami fell 42-38, its ACC title and CFP hopes going by the wayside.
This wasn’t nearly the most disastrous game-management decision that Cristobal has made since taking over at The U in 2022, but it once again crystallized the contradictions inherent in the Cristobal experience. He’s going to recruit like gangbusters, he’s going to field an increasingly talented team, and when it’s winning time, he’s going to make a grave miscalculation.
Still, after a dismal first season in charge — Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st in SP+ in 2022 — things have improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th in 2023, and even with a defense that was actively working against the team for half the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th in SP+, last season. At some point, with the right combination of talent and quarterback play, your own game management issues can cease to be part of the equation. (Remember when we thought Andy Reid was a horrible game manager?)
I’m not saying Miami will be that talented in 2025, but there’s at least a chance. Carson Beck comes from Georgia after throwing for 3,485 yards and 28 TDs last season. He alternated between looking like the best QB in college football and throwing baffling interceptions (12 in all), but he’ll have backs Mark Fletcher Jr. and Jordan Lyle (combined: 1,007 yards, 6.1 per carry) and tantalizing North Dakota State transfer CharMar Brown next to him and a deeply experienced line, led by tackle Francis Mauigoa, in front of him. Cristobal had to completely rebuild the receiving corps, which doesn’t return anyone who caught more than 10 passes. I’m not sure he got the job done there, but between wideouts CJ Daniels (Liberty/LSU) and Keelan Marion (BYU) and returning blue-chip youngsters such as Joshisa Trader and tight end Elija Lofton, there might be enough.
The offense covered for the defense as much as possible last season — the Canes actually went 3-2 while allowing 34 or more points — but Cristobal needed a lot of new blood on that side of the ball and got it. New coordinator Corey Hetherman led Minnesota to a No. 11 defensive SP+ ranking in 2024, and he takes over a unit that returns five starters and welcomes nine transfers. The defensive front looks strong thanks to the return of tackles Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. — they combined for 15 run stops and nine sacks despite Bain missing four games — and the addition of tackle David Blay (Louisiana Tech). If blue-chip sophomores Justin Scott and Armondo Blount develop properly, that’s a nasty defensive line. Transfer Mohamed Toure (Rutgers) could team with senior Wesley Bissainthe to form a decent linebacking corps. But breakdowns in the back were devastating last year, and Hetherman has to hope a remodeled secondary fixes that. Cristobal signed four new corners, led by Washington State playmaker Ethan O’Connor and including Jakobe Thomas (Tennessee) and potential nickel backs Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State) and Kamal Bonner (NC State). Returning corner OJ Frederique Jr. could improve, too.
I like what Miami will have in the trenches, and despite the occasional INTs, Beck is a very good QB. But Miami will need the teardowns in the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I’m pretty sure the latter will, but I’m not sure Beck will have enough strong pass catchers.
Head coach: Rhett Lashlee (fourth year, 29-13 overall)
2025 projection: 20th in SP+, 8.4 average wins (5.3 in the ACC)
Based purely on performance compared with recent history, there might not be a better college football coach than Rhett Lashlee. Before his tenure, the Mustangs’ previous two seasons with 11-plus wins came in 1982 and … 1935; he did it in 2023 and 2024. They hadn’t finished in the SP+ top 25 since 1983-84; they jumped from 56th to 24th in 2023, then to 12th in 2024. When he took over three years ago, SMU was an above-average AAC team. Now it’s defending a spot in the CFP.
Is a two-year sample enough to proclaim Lashlee the best coach in the sport? Probably not. OK, definitely not. But wow. Chad Morris (12-13 in 2016-17) and Sonny Dykes (30-17 in 2018-21) helped to dust this program off and get it back on its feet, but Lashlee has transformed it from head to toe.
The 2024 Mustangs dealt with early QB issues — incumbent Preston Stone was benched in favor of Kevin Jennings barely two weeks into the season — and committed far too many penalties and turnovers. They also made far more big plays than their opponents, went three-and-out far less, created more negative plays and dominated third downs on the way to an 11-1 regular season. They needed one more bounce against Clemson in the ACC title game, and Jennings briefly self-destructed in an impossibly loud environment at Penn State in the CFP, but it was a hell of a season. SP+ had projected SMU as a top-25 team and possible ACC contender, and it still sold the Mustangs short.
The continuity table above says relatively kind things for 2025. Jennings (3,245 passing yards, 436 pre-sack rushing yards, 28 total TDs) is one of about six returning starters on offense, the O-line has a pair of all-conference contenders in tackle PJ Williams and guard Logan Parr, and corner Deuce Harmon and safeties Isaiah Nwokobia and Robert Rahimi (a ball-hawking San Jose State transfer) anchor what should be a strong secondary. But although Lashlee is used to living the transfer portal life, he had to do some serious work in rebuilding both the skill corps (which lost its top two RBs and three of its top four WRs) and the defensive front six (which lost eight of the 12 guys with 200-plus snaps). Three Mustangs gained at least 500 yards from scrimmage last year, and four made at least nine TFLs. They’re all gone.
Lashlee added a couple of solid pass-catching backs in T.J. Harden (UCLA) and Chris Johnson Jr. (Miami), and slot receiver Yamir Knight (James Madison) is an excellent efficiency guy. Meanwhile, linebacker Zakye Barker (13.5 TFLs at East Carolina) is nearly a sure thing, and defensive tackle Terry Webb (six run stops and 1.5 sacks at 314 pounds) is active for his size. But disruption up front was vital to SMU’s defensive success, and Webb is the only genuinely proven disruptor among nine incoming transfer linemen. Some newbies and/or youngsters will have to raise their game for SMU to return to either Charlotte or the CFP.
The schedule certainly seems trickier this time around. After nonconference battles with both Baylor (home) and TCU (away), SMU faces all three of the other teams in this title contenders section — Miami and Louisville at home and Clemson away. After what Lashlee and the Mustangs have done these past two years, doubting them seems pretty foolish. But they’ve got their work cut out for them in 2025.
Head coach: Jeff Brohm (third year, 19-8 overall)
2025 projection: 24th in SP+, 8.3 average wins (4.8 in the ACC)
Brohm’s Louisville is a very hectic program. Change never stops. In 2023, he took over a team that had ranked 41st in SP+ with an 8-5 record, sent 25 transfers out, brought 25 in and improved the Cardinals to 10-4 and 34th. In 2024, it was 30 transfers out, 32 in and further improvement to 21st with a 9-4 record. The offense got better each year, while the defense and special teams got worse.
In theory, by your third year, you probably want to have your culture and your own recruits in place, therefore necessitating fewer incoming and outgoing transfers. But that’s not how Brohm sees things. He lost 28 transfers and brought in 30. The Cardinals have some dynamite returnees in running backs Isaac Brown and Duke Watson (combined: 1,770 yards, 7.6 per carry!), receiver Chris Bell (737 yards, 17.1 per catch), potential all-conference center Pete Nygra, super-disruptive linebackers Stanquan Clark and Antonio Watts (combined: 16.5 TFLs, 11 passes defended) and safety D’Angelo Hutchinson (five pass breakups, five run stops). But those are damn near the only proven returnees. Brohm and offensive coordinator (and brother) Brian Brohm will have their third starting quarterback in as many years — likely USC transfer Miller Moss — and welcome four wideouts, three tight ends and seven linemen via the portal. Brohms typically field good offenses, and they’re clearly used to handling change, but this carousel isn’t slowing down at all.
The defense has indeed trended in the wrong direction of late, so maybe it’s not too scary that 14 of the 19 defenders with 200-plus snaps are gone. The linebacking corps looks excellent, and Brohm added quite a few proven disruptors via the portal: end Clev Lubin (9.5 sacks at Coastal Carolina), tackle Jerry Lawson (14 TFLs at 295 pounds at Abilene Christian), safety JoJo Evans (seven passes defended and four run stops at Florida International), corners Justin Agu and Jabari Mack (combined: 20 passes defended at Louisiana and Jacksonville State, respectively) and corner/safety Rodney Johnson Jr. (five TFLs, three passes defended at Southern), among others.
Living the portal life means your scouting department constantly has to hit the jackpot. Ask Florida State’s Mike Norvell — a 2022 portal genius, a 2023 portal genius and a 2024 portal disaster — how that can go. But Moss’ QBR (74.4) basically matched that of last year’s starter, Tyler Shough (75.0); the trio of Brown, Watson and Bell is the most explosive in the conference; and there’s no reason to think the defense is any less talented than it was last season. Like SMU, Louisville plays all three fellow contenders (Clemson at home, Miami and SMU away), and the Cardinals travel to Pitt and Virginia Tech, too. That’s an obstacle, and at some point, a trend toward stability would be nice. But Brohm seems to know what he’s doing with all these moving pieces, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Louisville improves for a third straight year.
A couple of breaks away from a run
Head coach: Mike Norvell (sixth year, 33-27 overall)
2025 projection: 36th in SP+, 6.8 average wins (4.5 in the ACC)
For all the obvious reasons, I feared a bit of a hangover for FSU last year. The heartbreak of 2023’s unconscionable CFP snub combined with the loss of quarterback Jordan Travis, most of a dynamite skill corps and seven defensive draft picks made the Seminoles regression candidates, even if Norvell said all the right things in the offseason and brought in another solid-on-paper transfer haul.
Of course, if you’d asked me what “hangover” meant, I’d have probably guessed a record in the neighborhood of 7-5. FSU went 2-10! The transfer class produced almost no standouts, and the quarterback situation was even worse than at the end of 2023 after Travis’ injury — DJ Uiagalelei, Brock Glenn and Luke Kromenhoek were dreadful. The Noles fell from ninth to 58th in defensive SP+ and from 23rd to 114th on offense.
This was a collapse on the scale of Bobby Petrino’s last season at Louisville, Texas’ first season after 2009 BCS Championship disappointment and Notre Dame’s 2007 swoon under Charlie Weis. And it’s noteworthy that none of the coaches in charge during those collapses could right the ship. But Norvell will try.
The offense, now coordinated by veteran Gus Malzahn, could start almost nothing but transfers, from quarterback Thomas Castellanos (Boston College) to running back Gavin Sawchuk (Oklahoma) to receivers Squirrel White (Tennessee), Duce Robinson (USC) and Gavin Blackwell (North Carolina) to any of six new offensive linemen. Tackle Micah Pettus (Ole Miss), guard Adrian Medley (UCF) and center Luke Petitbon (Wake Forest) are immediately the team’s most proven linemen. Castellanos was honestly an underwhelming addition; he started 2024 well at BC, but injuries and defensive adjustments rendered him mostly ineffective, and he was eventually benched. That said, he’s a speedster who started his career with Malzahn at UCF, and White and Robinson could be excellent.
On defense, new coordinator Tony White inherits a unit with few incumbents. Tackles Darrell Jackson Jr. and Daniel Lyons, linebackers Blake Nichelson and Omar Graham Jr. and corner Quindarrius Jones are solid, but transfers Deamontae Diggs (Coastal Carolina), Jayson Jenkins (Tennessee), James Williams (Nebraska) and Elijah Herring (Memphis) will need to immediately spruce up the pass rush, and tackle depth appears tenuous. There are enough proven entities to assume the defense will bounce back. In fact, the collapse was so significant last season that we should assume some progression toward the mean everywhere. But how much of a rebound can you pull off after such a collapse? And how many games does Norvell need to win to assure he’s still in Tallahassee in 2026?
Head coach: Manny Diaz (second year, 9-4 overall)
2025 projection: 41st in SP+, 6.8 average wins (4.4 in the ACC)
Mike Elko resurrected the Duke program, winning 17 games in 2022-23. But when he left for Texas A&M, Manny Diaz inherited an offense in need of a new quarterback and an overhaul on the line. The defense had been excellent under Elko, but 11 of the 16 guys with at least 250 snaps in 2023 were gone. A reset season seemed realistic.
Looking at the Blue Devils’ output, you could hardly tell there was any change at all.
Duke in 2022 (Elko): 9-4, 42nd in SP+ (55th offense, 29th defense)
Duke in 2023 (Elko): 8-5, 30th in SP+ (63rd offense, 25th defense)
Duke in 2024 (Diaz): 9-4, 44th in SP+ (71st offense, 31st defense)
The run game was a disaster, and Duke’s 6-1 record in one-score finishes camouflaged what probably should have been more like a seven-win season. But Diaz & Co. held the fort.
This year, the offensive line depth appears far stronger, and of the 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps, nine return, including four of six linemen and four of six DBs. Diaz added one of the Group of 5’s best safeties in Caleb Weaver (Sam Houston) and potentially exciting receivers in Andrel Anthony (Oklahoma) and Cooper Barkate (Harvard), but his portal coup came at quarterback, where Darian Mensah comes over from Tulane. Mensah finished his redshirt freshman season 21st in QBR, just a few points behind veterans such as Klubnik (13th) and Georgia Tech’s Haynes King (14th). Mensah’s numbers were strong across the board, from efficiency (66% completion rate) to explosiveness (14.4 yards per completion) to escapability (15.2% of pressures turned into sacks — a good number for a mobile guy). The skill corps is a bit of a question mark: Five of last year’s top seven pass catchers are gone, and Anthony, Barkate and running back Anderson Castle (Appalachian State) might all have to make an immediate impact. But Mensah is awesome, and the line looks sturdy. That’s a good starting point for improvement.
It’s hard to worry much about a Diaz defense, especially one with experience at the front and back. Ends Wesley Williams and Vincent Anthony Jr. (combined: 20.5 TFLs, 11 sacks) and tackle Aaron Hall (7 TFLs) are good, and corner Chandler Rivers (6.5 TFLs, 3 INTs, 8 breakups) is great. Four of last year’s top five linebackers are gone, and Diaz didn’t pursue any portal replacements, which theoretically means he’s happy with what he has there. Regardless, linebackers are generally easier to replace than linemen or DBs, so Duke has experience where it counts the most. I’m not sure Mensah will have enough help to make Duke an ACC dark horse, but the defense should give the Blue Devils a pretty high floor.
Head coach: Dave Doeren (13th year, 87-65 overall)
2025 projection: 42nd in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)
“They’ll need some new disruptors. (Gibson usually finds them.)” That’s what I wrote about the NC State defense in last year’s ACC preview. Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson had produced three straight top-30 defenses, per SP+, but he had to replace six excellent starters and needed transfers to fill major gaps in the secondary. Of eight defensive transfers, only two clicked, and Gibson’s track record didn’t prevent State from collapsing to 69th in defensive SP+. Doeren’s Wolfpack were ranked in the 2024 preseason poll, but even with slight overachievement on offense — they were projected 56th in offensive SP+ and ended up 48th — they posted their first losing record in five years.
It’s time for another round of change in 2025. Gibson took the Marshall head coaching job, and of the 16 defenders with 200-plus snaps last season, only six return. Linebacker Sean Brown (13 run stops) and tackles Brandon Cleveland and Travali Price (combined: 15 run stops) are good starting points for new coordinator D.J. Eliot, but after failing to land enough impact transfers last year, Doeren had to seek out even more of them. Cian Slone (Utah State) and Sabastian Harsh (Wyoming) were among the Mountain West’s best defensive ends last year, and Brian Nelson II (North Texas) and Jamel Johnson (Temple) were among the AAC’s most active corners. But this is a lot of change in a short amount of time, and the last time Eliot coordinated a top-50 defense was 2015.
There’s reason for optimism on offense, at least. Quarterback CJ Bailey was decent as a true freshman: He ranked 65th in QBR, right between two mega-blue-chippers — Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola was 59th, Florida’s DJ Lagway 70th — and his best moments were great. He was 18-for-20 for 234 yards and three scores in a blowout of Stanford, he rushed for 83 yards and three TDs in a near-upset of Georgia Tech, and he threw for 242 yards and ran for 54 in a rivalry win at UNC. His performance was encouraging enough that when Doeren fired coordinator Robert Anae, he promoted QBs coach Kurt Roper.
Bailey isn’t Roper’s only exciting sophomore. Running back Hollywood Smothers (571 yards, 6.4 per carry) and Noah Rogers (478 yards, 13.7 per catch) were both portal hits, and incoming tackle Teague Andersen (Utah State) was honorable mention all-MWC as a freshman. If development and a new playcaller result in fewer negative plays — the Pack were 119th in turnovers, 116th in stuff rate and 74th in sack rate — this could be State’s best offense since 2021. That could be enough to drive a solid season if the defense doesn’t collapse further.
Head coach: Brent Key (fourth year, 18-16 overall)
2025 projection: 44th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)
If you were watching Georgia Tech in 2024, the Yellow Jackets were probably doing something special. They played three top-10 teams and looked like a top-10 team against all three — they upset No. 10 Florida State in Ireland to start the season (back when we thought that was an upset), then knocked No. 4 Miami from the unbeaten ranks with a 28-23 win in November and all but beat No. 6 Georgia during Rivalry Week, eventually falling 44-42 after 114 overtimes. (OK, it was eight OTs.) They otherwise went just 5-5, losing at Syracuse and Louisville, briefly falling apart when quarterback Haynes King injured his shoulder and losing a fun Birmingham Bowl against Vanderbilt.
Overall, they really weren’t different than they were in Brent Key’s first season at the helm.
Georgia Tech in 2023: 7-6, 65th in SP+ (50th offense, 86th defense, 68th special teams)
Georgia Tech in 2024: 7-6, 66th in SP+ (42nd offense, 79th defense, 104th special teams)
Still, making memories can pay off. Key capitalized on those big moments by signing a top-20 recruiting class and holding on to key players like King, running back Jamal Haynes, all-conference guard Keylan Rutledge and defensive tackle Jordan van den Berg. He also added all-Ivy League running back Malachi Hosley (Penn), maybe Florida International’s two best players — receivers Eric Rivers and Dean Patterson, who combined for 1,857 yards and 19 TDs — and a number of exciting defenders, such as end Ronald Triplette (UTSA), tackles Matthew Alexander (UCF) and Akelo Stone (Ole Miss), cornerbacks Kelvin Hill (UAB) and Daiquan White (Eastern Michigan) and safeties Jyron Gilmore (Georgia State) and Cayman Spaulding (Tennessee Tech).
The defensive transfers were necessary, since only seven of the 19 defenders with 200-plus snaps return for new coordinator Blake Gideon. Tech hasn’t had a top-50 defense, per SP+, since 2017, and since the Yellow Jackets allowed at least 31 points in five of six losses, it’s clear the defense held them back in 2024 as well.
Injuries did too. Nineteen defenders started at least one game, and King not only missed two games, but he was limited in others. His ridiculously physical style will always make him an injury risk, but when he and Haynes are in the backfield, Tech will have a chance to beat any team it plays. There won’t be as many marquee win opportunities — the Jackets play only two teams projected in the top 40 (Clemson and Georgia) — but if that results in more wins, period, I doubt Key will complain too much.
Head coach: Bill Belichick (first year)
2025 projection: 54th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)
We’ve had months to get used to the idea of Bill Belichick running a college football program. It’s still going to feel ridiculously odd to see the 73-year-old, six-time Super Bowl-winning head coach leading North Carolina onto the field against TCU on the first Monday night of the season. I had this vision of Belichick deciding to finish his career leading some Division III team like his alma mater, Wesleyan. I can’t say I ever had a vision of him coaching in the ACC.
I still have no idea how it’s going to go. As I wrote in the spring, “Depending on how kind you are, Belichick has surrounded himself with either known entities or yes-men: two Belichicks (defensive coordinator Steve, DBs coach Brian), two Lombardis (general manager Michael, quarterbacks coach Matt) and other key former NFL assistants (offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens, special teams coordinator Mike Priefer). He has raved about enjoying popping pads and yelling at tight ends, and he’s regarded as a good enough teacher that, for all we know, this unheralded roster might develop well and thrive. Or not. I have no idea how to set expectations for this.”
I like the roster more now than I did when I wrote that, thanks to the spring addition of South Alabama quarterback Gio Lopez (2,559 passing yards, 547 pre-sack rushing yards, 25 total TDs), and Belichick & Co. added lots of heft to the offensive line, signing eight transfers — including 2024 FBS all-conference performers in tackles Will O’Steen (Jacksonville State) and Daniel King (Troy) — who average 6-foot-6, 322 pounds. But the skill corps is terribly unproven: Leading returning running back Davion Gause had 326 rushing yards, and leading returning receiver Kobe Paysour had 365 receiving yards.
The defense, meanwhile, is almost completely starting over. Sixteen defenders saw at least 200 snaps last year, and only three return, all defensive backs. Linebackers Andrew Simpson (Boise State), Mikai Gbayor (Nebraska) and Khmori House (Washington) could all be keepers, though ends Pryce Yates (6.5 TFLs at UConn) and Melkart Abou-Jaoude (9.5 TFLs at Delaware) are almost by default the most proven linemen. Under Mack Brown, the defense usually dragged the offense down — the Heels allowed at least 34 points in five of seven losses last season — and while the word “Belichick” is synonymous with good defense, it might take UNC a little while to grow sound on that side of the ball.
Head coach: Brent Pry (fourth year, 16-21 overall)
2025 projection: 46th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (3.9 in the ACC)
In 2023, Virginia Tech fell as low as 80th in SP+ before the offense caught fire and drove a 5-2 finish. In 2024, the Hokies started slowly again but nearly beat Miami and won three straight ACC games by a combined 60 points before injuries to quarterback Kyron Drones and running back Bhayshul Tuten slowed the offense down. Brent Pry’s team spent about half of the past two seasons flashing top-20 form but went a combined 13-13. And after massive turnover, Pry’s fourth Tech roster will look almost completely different than his third.
Drones is back. He has thrown for 3,646 yards and rushed for 1,377 in 23 games as a Hokie, and he’s a great starting point, but tight end Benji Gosnell is the only other offensive starter returning. On defense, linebackers Caleb Woodson and Jaden Keller are the only returnees who started more than six games. I really like a lot of the transfers Tech brought in, but they had to bring in so damn many.
On offense, running backs Terion Stewart (Bowling Green), Braydon Bennett (Coastal Carolina) and Marcellous Hawkins (Central Missouri) combined for 2,762 yards and 35 TDs in 2024, and Stewart is one of the best yards-after-contact backs in the country. Receiver Donavon Greene (Wake Forest) is dynamite when healthy (which isn’t often), former top-125 recruit Cameron Seldon (Tennessee) could be a nice yardage stealer in the slot, and guard Tomas Rimac (West Virginia) is one of four transfers new OL coach Matt Moore brought with him from WVU.
On defense, end Ben Bell (Texas State) was one of the nation’s best pass rushers in 2023 before missing most of 2024, and five other new D-linemen made at least five TFLs last year. In the back, safeties Christian Ellis (New Mexico), Isaiah Cash (Sam Houston) and Tyson Flowers (Rice) combined for 5 interceptions, 15 breakups and 14 run stops, while corners Isaiah Brown-Murray (East Carolina), Caleb Brown (Hawai’i) and Joseph Reddish (Wingate) combined for five INTs and 24 breakups.
On top of all this, Pry had to hire a new pair of coordinators, choosing a known quantity on offense (former Tulsa head coach Philip Montgomery) and an intriguing younger coach on defense (former Arizona Cardinals LBs coach Sam Siefkes). With how close Pry has come to success, it’s not optimal to deal with this much change at once, but this roster might have more upside than any Pry has led in Blacksburg.
Head coach: Pat Narduzzi (11th year, 72-56 overall)
2025 projection: 47th in SP+, 6.1 average wins (3.6 in the ACC)
One of the things that makes a college football season so enjoyable is the early upstart run, when a team enjoys some thrilling early finishes, gets off to a fast start and forces you to think of it as a potential contender. It adds such a layer of richness and world-building to the sport.
Pitt’s 2024 season is a perfect example. Coming off of a dire 3-9 collapse in 2023, Pat Narduzzi hired 30-year-old offensive coordinator Kade Bell (Western Carolina), paired him with former WCU back Desmond Reid and former Alabama backup quarterback Eli Holstein, and watched the offense drive a stunning 7-0 start. The Panthers scored late wins over Cincinnati and West Virginia, outlasted another September headline-maker (Cal) and blew out yet another upstart, Syracuse, thanks to three first-half pick-sixes.
And then they vanished from sight. Holstein struggled, then got hurt. An aggressive but glitchy defense sprang more leaks. And as delightful as they looked during the unbeaten start, they looked equally lost during an 0-6 finish. They more than doubled their win total in the most disappointing possible way.
Which was the more accurate impression, the start or the finish? Holstein is back, and Bell also has former WCU quarterback Cole Gonzales in tow, just in case. Reid is back after combining 966 rushing yards with 579 receiving yards, and the offense also returns two of its top three wideouts and three starting offensive linemen. The defense returns four of the six players with at least eight TFLs, including linebackers Kyle Louis (17 TFLs) and Rasheem Biles (11.5), plus three physical DBs in safety Javon McIntyre and corners Rashad Battle and Tamon Lynum. Incoming transfer Kavir Bains-Marquez (UC Davis) was one of the Big Sky’s most disruptive defenders last year.
A Pitt game last year was almost guaranteed to feature a lot of negative plays, a lot of explosive plays and a lot of penalties. It was highly volatile ball, even by Narduzzi’s standards, and it paid off for the Panthers until it very much did not. Reid aside, most of last year’s most exciting players were freshmen and sophomores, and one can see how experience might sand down rough edges and make Pitt an ACC dark horse. But that late-season collapse was pretty ugly. It’s up to the Panthers to prove whether the first or second half of the season showed us the way forward.
Head coach: Justin Wilcox (ninth year, 42-50 overall)
2025 projection: 65th in SP+, 5.9 average wins (3.4 in the ACC)
Somehow, Cal may have had an even more memorable mediocre season than Pitt. Because of a 3-0 start and the vaunted Calgorithm, the Golden Bears hosted “College GameDay” for the first time when Miami came to town. They led by as many as 25 points but fell, 39-38. It was basically the story of their season: They finished 55th in SP+ — their best ranking of the entire Justin Wilcox era — but went 6-7 because of a 2-5 record in one-score finishes. To compound the frustration, they proceeded to lose 33 players to the portal. (Wilcox also changed both coordinators.)
Wilcox honestly did a pretty good job of finding upside to replace upside in the portal. At quarterback, he found junior Devin Brown (Ohio State) and blue-chip freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who had originally signed with Oregon. At running back, he grabbed Brandon High (UTSA), Kendrick Raphael (NC State) and former blue-chipper L.J. Johnson Jr. (SMU). Five new WRs and two TEs came in, including a high-level slot receiver in UNLV’s Jacob De Jesus and two of the most explosive receivers in FCS, Idaho’s Mark Hamper and South Dakota’s Quaron Adams (combined: 1,504 yards, 22.4 per catch). And he has five new offensive linemen to pair with two 2024 starters and 2023 starter Sioape Vatikani, who missed a lot of last season.
On defense, quite a bit of last year’s front six returns, including four of five primary linemen, but Wilcox still added four more linebackers and three linemen, including Liberty’s TJ Bush Jr. (nine TFLs) and former blue-chipper Tyson Ford (Notre Dame). The secondary, however, lost seven of last year’s top eight. In come seven DB transfers, including corners Hezekiah Masses (FIU) and Brent Austin (USF).
The defense graded out better last season and returns more experience, but while I’m not sure what to expect from new offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin, I really like the upside of the transfers there. The schedule is kind, featuring only two opponents projected better than 40th, and if either of the two athletic QBs plays at a solid level and the god of close games smiles on the Golden Bears — two mighty ifs that may not come to fruition — Cal could top last year’s win total.
Just looking for a path to 6-6
Head coach: Bill O’Brien (second year, 7-6 overall)
2025 projection: 62nd in SP+, 5.2 average wins (2.9 in the ACC)
Bill O’Brien’s first season as BC head coach was a full three-act play. At first, the Eagles were yet another intriguing upstart, holding Florida State to 13 points (again, back when we thought that was impressive) and damn near knocking off an eventual 10-win Missouri team. The defense was physical and frustrating, and quarterback Thomas Castellanos was able to run around and avoid defenders for seemingly minutes on end, even if he didn’t really go anywhere. Even when Castellanos began picking up injuries and losing effectiveness, the defense was good enough to assure a 4-1 start.
A three-game losing streak followed, however, and with O’Brien losing faith in Castellanos, he called Grayson James off the bench against Syracuse. James threw a late TD pass to secure an upset win, and O’Brien elected to start James from there; Castellanos quit the team, and BC won two more games to finish 7-6.
James suffered fewer negative plays than Castellanos and was able to both get the ball quickly to slot man Lewis Bond and connect on some deep shots to then-freshman Reed Harris. In a reasonably small sample, he ended up with one of the better Total QBR ratings in the conference, right between second-round NFL draft pick Tyler Shough and Kevin Jennings.
The James-Bond-Harris combo was intriguing, as were young RBs Turbo Richard and Datrell Jones in small samples. A good line lost a couple of all-conference starters; if there’s not too much of a drop-off there, there should be enough to maintain last season’s late momentum, especially if the Eagles get something out of transfers such as receiver VJ Wilkins (Campbell) and tight end Ty Lockwood (Alabama). Bama transfer Dylan Lonergan joined the QB race as well.
With a secondary loaded with freshmen and sophomores, coordinator Tim Lewis had to play things pretty soft in pass defense. But the run defense was sound, and BC both created long third downs for opponents and made a solid number of stops. The secondary is far more seasoned now, and linebacker Daveon Crouch is excellent. But with last year’s top four linemen gone, O’Brien loaded up with seven transfers up front, five from smaller schools. None had amazing stat lines last year, but if a couple can provide depth for veterans like end Quintayvious Hutchins, a top-50 defensive SP+ ranking is possible.
Head coach: Fran Brown (second year, 10-3 overall)
2025 projection: 56th in SP+, 4.8 average wins (2.9 in the ACC)
Those hatin’ numbers are at it again. Syracuse won 10 games last season and is now in the “just hoping for 6-6” section. What?
I’ll try to explain: In 2024, the Orange played only three SP+ top-40 teams and beat them all, but they went 7-2 in one-score finishes (hard to duplicate), and two of their three losses — by 28 to Pitt and at home to Stanford — were absolutely dreadful. Kyle McCord piloted an efficient, pass-happy offense, but opponents made more big plays, and they were among the most fortunate teams in the league. Despite the 10 wins, they finished 46th in SP+.
Of course, 46th was Syracuse’s best ranking in seven years! And Fran Brown’s first dalliances in the portal produced the Orange’s leading passer, leading receiver, two offensive line starters and four of their best defenders. That’s a good sign.
Things will get tougher in 2025. The schedule features five projected top-20 teams, and the offense returns only two starters. McCord will likely be replaced by either Steve Angeli (Notre Dame) or Rickie Collins (LSU), and with last year’s leading rusher and three leading targets gone, incoming receiver transfer Johntay Cook II (Texas) and a lot of former backups will have to step up. Up front, two starters return, but they’re two of only three guys with more than 40 snaps back, and Brown brought in five line transfers.
Injuries thrust a lot of guys into the starting defense at one point or another, and of the 23 players who started at least once (!), 15 return. There isn’t a ton of proven playmaking here, but safety Duce Chestnut and nickel Devin Grant are fantastic, and sophomore OLB David Omopariola‘s per-snap production suggests he has breakout potential. Brown didn’t load up on transfers, but he did add strong playmakers in tackle Chris Thomas (Marshall) and edge rusher David Reese (Cal) and a young former blue-chip safety in Chris Peal (Georgia).
Between the massive schedule-strength upgrade, last year’s inflated win total and the need for another batch of portal playmakers on offense, the odds certainly favor a setback season for the Orange. But Brown has barely made a misstep so far, whether the hatin’ numbers acknowledge it or not.
Head coach: Tony Elliott (fourth year, 11-23 overall)
2025 projection: 79th in SP+, 5.1 average wins (2.8 in the ACC)
On one hand, Virginia improved to 5-7 last year after back-to-back three-win seasons under Tony Elliott. The defense was solid against the run and on third downs, and the offense showed hints of an identity, with a fast tempo and a decent run game.
On the other hand, UVA played six top-50 teams and went 0-6 with an average loss of 36-17. SP+ saw barely any improvement whatsoever — after averaging a 95.0 SP+ ranking in Elliott’s first two seasons, they were 91st in 2024. They were horrific at both passing (113th in yards per dropback) and stopping opponents from doing so (118th).
After going .500 or better in each of Bronco Mendenhall’s last four seasons (average SP+ ranking: 45.8), UVA has just been terrible under Elliott. And this being the mid-2020s, Elliott will attempt to save his job via the portal. He welcomes 31 transfers to Charlottesville, and a vast majority of them are upperclassmen. Quarterback Chandler Morris (North Texas) can wing the ball around, and I really like the running back duo of Harrison Waylee (Wyoming) and J’Mari Taylor (NC Central). I’m not sure whom Morris will be throwing to — Purdue transfer Jahmal Edrine and returnee Trell Harris are probably the biggest big-play threats — but thanks to seven transfers, almost the entire O-line two deep could be made up of seniors.
I like the D-line playmakers Elliott brought in: ends Fisher Camac (UNLV), Cazeem Moore (Elon) and Daniel Rickert (Tennessee Tech) combined for 38.5 TFLs and 20.5 sacks last season, and tackles Jacob Holmes (Fresno State) and Hunter Osborne (Bama) are active for their size. The linebacking corps is probably the best unit on the team thanks to returnees Kam Robinson, Trey McDonald and James Jackson, but with most of the starting secondary gone, UVA will welcome eight transfer DBs.
Will this work? I’d be surprised. And even if it does, Elliott will have to sign about another 30-40 transfers next year just to account for the loss of so many seniors. But the schedule is light, featuring only two projected top-40 teams (and none in the top 20), and UVA is probably better at QB and on both lines than last year. Bowl eligibility is a possibility, at least.
Head coach: Jake Dickert (first year)
2025 projection: 81st in SP+, 5.2 average wins (2.3 in the ACC)
Dave Clawson ended up a relic of a past era. He won 157 combined games at Fordham, Richmond, Bowling Green and Wake Forest due to pragmatic program building and player development. He took his time — his win percentage in his first year in those jobs was just .277, followed by .354 in year two, .532 in year three and .698 in year four.
You don’t take your time anymore. It must be said that the best coaches adapt, and plenty have done so as the demands of NIL and the portal have so drastically changed how roster building works. But whether it was Clawson’s failure to adapt or Wake Forest’s failure to generate proper NIL funds — I’m not taking guesses either way — things fell apart pretty quickly for the Demon Deacons. In Clawson’s last two seasons, they went 4-8 with sub-90 SP+ rankings. The good players left too quickly, and there just wasn’t enough talent to work with.
If there’s anyone who knows about winning when your best players are constantly looking out the door, it’s Jake Dickert. He went 20-18 in three years at Washington State despite constant turnover. And his first Wake team will be portal-built. He inherits a solid tackle-breaker in running back Demond Claiborne, a sure-tackling linebacker in Dylan Hazen and little else. He brought a few Wazzu transfers with him, including three starting offensive linemen and a solid receiver in Carlos Hernandez. Those linemen will be protecting one of two very exciting (read: scramble-heavy and sack-prone) quarterbacks in sophomore Deshawn Purdie (Charlotte) or senior Robby Ashford (South Carolina). They’ll be running around a lot and potentially throwing to Hernandez and two 1,000-yard smaller-school receivers in Reginald Vick Jr. (Virginia Union) and Karate Brenson (Tennessee State).
Yes, his name is Karate Brenson.
Former Kansas State and Michigan State coordinator Scottie Hazelton takes over a defense that — surprise! — will consist mostly of transfers. Ends Gabe Kirschke (Colorado State) and Langston Hardy (UConn) were nice gets, and safeties Ashaad Williams (North Alabama) and Sascha Garcia (William & Mary) were both smaller-school ballhawks. Led by Hazen, this could become a solid-tackling, make-them-beat-you defense pretty quickly. But it’s still fair to question the overall talent level on both sides of the ball.
Head coach: Frank Reich (first year)
2025 projection: 88th in SP+, 3.4 average wins (2.2 in the ACC)
As far as interim coaches go, you could do worse than Frank Reich. The former Indianapolis Colts and Carolina Panthers head coach — and engineer of two of the greatest comebacks of all time — has the résumé, even if he went just 4-15-1 in his last two years in those jobs. Andrew Luck, the Stanford GM overseeing the program, called in a favor in bringing Reich in after the awkwardly timed firing of Troy Taylor, and no matter what, Reich probably isn’t going to do any worse than Taylor. He went 3-9 in each of his two years on the job, just as predecessor David Shaw went 3-9 in each of his last two years. Stanford’s SP+ ranking has gotten worse in seven of the last nine years, and the last time the win total improved in a given season was 2015. Yikes. After the program’s sudden surge under Jim Harbaugh and Shaw, it’s been a slow-motion disaster for most of a decade.
So yeah, there’s a low bar for Reich. At QB, he and offensive coordinator Nate Byham will try to create something useful out of either senior Ben Gulbranson (Oregon State), sophomore Dylan Rizk (UCF) or redshirt freshman Elijah Brown; the only particularly proven players in the skill corps are smaller-school transfers in running back Tuna Altahir (Eastern Washington) and receivers Caden High (SC State) and David Pantelis (Yale). The offensive line, long loaded with former blue-chippers, doesn’t really have any left. But three starters do return, along with transfers Niki Prongos (UCLA) and Nathan Mejia (Sacramento State). Is there a successful offense in that mix? I don’t see it.
The defense has been horrible for three straight years, but it does have experience and continuity — of 20 players with at least 150 snaps, 15 return. Outside linebacker Tevarua Tafiti, nickel Collin Wright and safety Mitch Leigber are all solid, but the hope has to be that experience and development create something useful.
Things don’t usually turn around for an interim, but at the very least, things probably won’t get worse. Does that count as positive spin?
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Adam Rittenberg
Notre Dame offensive lineman Charles Jagusah is recovering from surgery to repair a fractured bone in his left arm following a utility terrain vehicle accident Saturday in Wyoming.
The team announced Jagusah will return to campus early this week for further evaluation, and that his prognosis from the surgery which repaired his fractured left humerus, a bone located between the shoulder and elbow, is “favorable.”
The accident is the latest setback for Jagusah, who was projected to start at left tackle for Notre Dame entering the 2024 season but tore a pectoral muscle early in training camp. He missed the entire regular season but returned for the Fighting Irish during their College Football Playoff run, filling in for Rocco Spindler at right guard and then starting the national title game against Ohio State at left tackle.
Jagusah has been set to start at guard for Notre Dame in 2025. The team did not provide an initial timeline for his return.
The 6-foot-7, 333-pound Jagusah is part of a young Notre Dame offensive line that projects to be among the nation’s best. Despite losing veterans Spindler (Nebraska), Pat Coogan (Indiana) and Sam Pendleton (Tennessee) to the transfer portal, Notre Dame returns promising players such as left tackle Anthonie Knapp and center Ashton Craig.
Jagusah was the No. 7 tackle and No. 66 overall recruit in the 2023 class. Notre Dame opens the season Aug. 31 at Miami.
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Eli Lederman
Four-star cornerback Chauncey Kennon, No. 48 in the 2026 ESPN 300, announced his commitment to Florida State on Sunday, securing his place as the top-ranked recruit in the Seminoles’ latest recruiting class.
Kennon, a 6-foot-2, 175-pound defender from Sarasota, Florida, is ESPN’s fifth-ranked cornerback prospect in the 2026 cycle. A priority in-state target for Florida State coach Mike Norvell, Kennon chose the Seminoles over Florida, Georgia, LSU, Miami and Oregon.
Kennon lands as the ninth ESPN 300 pledge to land with Florida State since June 1, spurring a run of recruiting momentum that has lifted the program’s 2026 class to No. 12 in ESPN’s latest class rankings. That group of recent additions includes four-star pass catchers Xavier Tiller (No. 84 overall) and Devin Carter (No. 130) and quarterback Jaden O’Neal (No. 166), the former Oklahoma commit and ESPN’s No. 8 pocket passer.
Kennon is now the top-ranked of six ESPN 300 defenders bound for the Seminoles in 2026, joining defensive tackle Earnest Rankins (No. 206 overall), cornerback Lawrence Timmons (No. 264), safeties Tedarius Hughes (No. 275) and Darryl Bell (No. 291) and defensive end James Carrington (No. 288). ESPN 300 commit Efrem White, currently classified as an athlete, could also land in the Florida State secondary when he joins the program next year.
Kennon is a two-way standout at Florida’s Booker High School, where he plays both wide receiver and cornerback. Sidelined by injury for a portion of his junior season, Kennon was credited 33 tackles, 16 pass breakups and an interception last fall, adding 10 receptions for 217 yards and six touchdowns on offense.
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