
Why the Maple Leafs shouldn’t re-sign Mitch Marner — and what they should do instead
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3 months agoon
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Rachel DoerrieMay 30, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Rachel Doerrie is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.
The 2025 offseason includes a thin group of high-level free agents with an exploding salary cap atmosphere, meaning Brian Burke’s “the biggest mistakes get made on July 1” credo is likely to be truer than ever.
This year, the free agent generating the most attention is Mitch Marner. There’s a significant gap behind him to Matt Duchene, Sam Bennett, John Tavares, Brock Boeser and Aaron Ekblad. It’s a stark contrast to July 1, 2026, when it’s possible that Connor McDavid, Kirill Kaprizov, Jack Eichel, Artemi Panarin, Kyle Connor and John Carlson may be all available. Some (if not all) may extend with their current clubs, but the list of potentially available players a year from now should make GMs think twice before signing a bloated contract on July 1, 2025.
The supply of valuable players in 2025 is short, meaning it is highly likely for overpayments on contracts to occur. To win the Stanley Cup, teams need players to overperform their contracts and avoid inefficient contracts of any kind. There is merit to the tax-free state teams having advantage, but many of the top players overperform the delta between their contract value and the “tax-free” discount.
As an example, Sam Reinhart likely would have garnered a $10 million average annual value on the open market, while taking $8.625 million to remain with the Florida Panthers. Reinhart’s value according to my model is closer to $12.6 million, meaning Florida is getting an extra $2.6 million in value on top of the “tax discount.” Similar situations exist for Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov, Thomas Harley, and Shea Theodore.
In non-tax-free states, elite players like Cale Makar, Adam Fox, Seth Jarvis and Nico Hischier are overperforming their contracts. Perhaps the best example is in Edmonton where Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard and Zach Hyman are significantly overperforming their contract values. Draisaitl’s mammoth contract is still expected to be efficient when it kicks in. For Evan Bouchard, any contract with an AAV below $9.5 million would be considered efficient.
According to reports, Mitch Marner is expected to garner $14 million per year, while an efficient contract would be closer to $12 million. Sam Bennett, another player represented by Darren Ferris, is rumored to be seeking in the neighborhood of $9 million AAV. That would mean a player with a career high of 51 points would have a contract on par with an elite second-line center, while producing like a low-end second-liner or high-end third-liner. While there are legitimate arguments for Marner’s regular-season value and Bennett’s playoff value, any team hoping to contend can ill afford to pay those players 10% above their value.
Given Toronto’s cap structure, extending Marner is unlikely to result in long-term success, because it would be prohibitive to balancing the lineup. If Marner wants to play on a contending team and win, contract efficiency matters. If we apply the same efficiency of the upcoming Draisaitl contract, a comparable that Marner’s camp is using, anything more than $12 million would handicap a team’s ability to contend — and that is provided Marner performs to Draisaitl’s level in the playoffs, which has yet to occur. Marner would need to sign for around $10 million AAV to have a valuable contract similar to the likes of Reinhart, Kucherov and Kaprizov.
It has never been clearer that a major shakeup is needed in Toronto. While there were multiple nixed trades that would have allowed Toronto to make significant changes over the past few years, Toronto is left with the reality that a superstar caliber player will likely be lost for nothing. However, Toronto cannot afford to extend Marner on an inefficient contract, especially when playoff performances are considered. Here’s how they should proceed instead.
WITH THE CONTRACTS for Marner and John Tavares expiring, the Leafs have plenty of room to maneuver. They cannot replace the value of Marner with one player, but they can redistribute the wealth throughout the lineup.
Tavares is likely to extend in Toronto, and the rumored AAV is around $5 million, which is an efficient contract for a middle-six center, one who scored 38 goals in 2024-25. The Leafs should avoid doing a bridge deal for restricted free agent Matthew Knies, instead opting for a long-term deal in the neighborhood of $8.5 million AAV. Combined, that costs less than Marner’s ask, and the combined value of Knies and Tavares outweighs the value of Marner.
Toronto should expect Easton Cowan to contribute in a middle-six role on his entry-level contract next season. It is almost imperative that Toronto GM Brad Treliving trade two of David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, Max Domi and Nick Robertson. The cap space this frees up could be used to sign Matt Duchene, Brad Marchand or Pius Suter, all of whom provide significantly more value in elevated roles.
That set of restructures would allow Toronto to have three productive lines. The Panthers’ third line was the difference in the Leafs’ series loss, and that is because efficient contracts at the top of Florida’s roster allowed for a more balanced approach to the lineup.
Speaking of the Panthers, there are rumblings the Leafs have interest in Sam Bennett. While it is easy to understand why, let’s remember the player Bennett was before Florida. In Treliving’s prior role as Flames GM, he traded Bennett out of Calgary for spare parts because he was unable to find his game. Bennett is a perfect fit in Florida, though much of his value comes from the extracurricular activities, as opposed to offensive production. If those extracurricular activities were to be more heavily punished, they would lose their value.
Consider that Tavares notched 38 goals and 74 points this season and is likely to sign for around $5 million. Bennett notched a career high of 51 points this season. While Bennett is younger, signing him to a contract worth 1.5 times Tavares’ until he is Tavares’ age — having produced 0.68 points per game in Florida and 0.48 points per game over his career — would be catastrophic.
Florida is absolutely right to not want to pay more than $7 million per year for Bennett, which would already be slightly bloated. Given Florida’s success over the past few years, the Maple Leafs would be wise to follow those signals. A $7.5 million AAV is inefficient but manageable if the Leafs believe Bennett’s extracurriculars won’t draw more attention in a market where the hockey team is first, second and third in coverage. Should Bennett’s camp push further, the Leafs would be better off looking elsewhere. Targeting Pius Suter or Matt Duchene on July 1 — and orchestrating a trade for Mason Marchment with Dallas — in a theoretical example of more balanced approach.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH specific players are signed or added in trade, the Maple Leafs need to balance their forward depth and refrain from signing inefficient contracts. There are too many on the books, and the Leafs would do well to extricate themselves from a couple of them. The best teams don’t contend because of one or two players; that’s true even of the Oilers (though it certainly helps having McDavid and Draisaitl).
Instead, the best teams contend year after year because their best players outperform their contracts, and the depth in the lineup provides quality minutes due to management being able to acquire better players that provide balance. Current examples are Florida’s third line, along with Edmonton’s depth that includes Corey Perry, Jake Walman and Connor Brown. Because of the efficient contracts for Roope Hintz, Thomas Harley and Matt Duchene, Dallas was able to acquire a superstar in Mikko Rantanen.
Toronto needs to be ruthless — the way that the Tampa Bay Lightning operated during their consecutive Stanley Cup runs and the way the Vegas Golden Knights have been for their entire existence.
If a player isn’t willing to sign for what the team needs to be successful, then they aren’t going to be a Leaf. Significant trade protection for anyone outside the top-six forwards or top-four defensemen needs to be a thing of the past. Eight- or 10-team no-trade clauses for third-line players is manageable, but the days of giving bottom-pair defenders and the likes of David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok and Ryan Reaves any level of trade protection must end. They cannot handicap their ability to make moves by providing trade protection to players who are easily replaceable every summer.
For the Leafs to win, they need to stay focused in their pursuit of contract efficiency, and that likely means losing pure talent in the short-term to create a more balanced, long-term approach that has worked so well for other clubs.
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Travis Hunter effect is alive in the 2025 college football season
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2 hours agoon
September 9, 2025By
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Adam RittenbergSep 9, 2025, 06:52 AM ET
Close- College football reporter; joined ESPN in 2008. Graduate of Northwestern University.
Utah‘s mission to reboot its offense started with adding a quarterback-coordinator combination from New Mexico, as Devon Dampier and Jason Beck made their way to Salt Lake City.
But the Utes also needed playmakers to surround Dampier. Their search led them to the transfer portal, naturally, but also to their own roster and, ultimately, to the other side of the ball.
Smith Snowden, who started at nickel in 2024 and had 10 passes defended, and linebacker Lander Barton, the team’s tackles leader in fall 2024 who had six passes defended, were the top options.
“Obviously Travis Hunter last year, the success he had, winning the Heisman [Trophy], that struck a chord with a lot of coaches, taking them through their roster: Who do we have that can contribute both ways?” Utah coach Kyle Whittingham told ESPN. “The bottom line is: What’s going to help you win games? It’s not the novelty of having a two-way guy. Who’s going to give us the best chance to win?”
Hunter’s surge to the 2024 Heisman at Colorado, while playing full time on both offense and defense, might have nudged coaches to expand their view of what was possible for the right players. Although Hunter did things not thought possible in the modern era of college football — he played 2,625 snaps in two seasons at Colorado, leading the FBS in both 2023 and 2024 — his success is already increasing opportunities for others.
Utah opened the season with a 43-10 win at UCLA, in which Snowden led the team in receiving and added a rushing touchdown while Barton caught a touchdown pass from Dampier. Safety Jackson Bennee also had a 17-yard reception. In Week 2, Snowden had two rushes, three catches and two tackles.
Your eyes do not deceive you… that is, in fact, CORNERBACK Smith Snowden scoring a rushing touchdown for @Utah_Football 👀#Big12FB | 📺 @CFBONFOX pic.twitter.com/Ih38m3CHze
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) August 31, 2025
“Travis Hunter really set the standard for it,” Snowden said. “He opened a lot of doors for younger athletes that can’t decide if they want to play offense or defense.”
Maybe they don’t have to anymore.
The Utes’ crew is among a small but growing group of players with the license to play both ways. Minnesota sophomore Koi Perich, a first-team All-Big Ten defensive back in 2024 who also stood out on returns, is carving out a bigger role with the Gophers offense. Vanderbilt defensive back Martel Hight, an All-SEC return specialist this past season, is on a similar path as a wide receiver.
They’re all occupying expanded roles, at least in part, because of the Travis Hunter effect.
“It’s starting to open up,” Hight told ESPN. “I’m pretty sure the coaches, they see guys doing it and it probably opens their eyes.”
DURING VANDERBILT’S WINTER conditioning session, Hight was running gassers — sprints across the width of the field — when Jerry Kill, a senior offensive advisor and chief consultant to coach Clark Lea, walked over.
“[Kill] grabbed me and said, ‘Hey, you’re going to be a starting receiver for me,'” Hight said.
Hight came to Vanderbilt as an ESPN 300 recruit and the nation’s No. 33 cornerback out of Rome, Georgia. Like many high school standouts, he played both defense and offense and even faced Travis Hunter when their Georgia high schools played.
“I scored on him, ran him over, he caught a pass on me my junior year, and it was a pretty good catch,” Hight said. “We’ve always kind of had this little back and forth. It was never any trash-talking or anything. We just kept it cordial.”
Hight, however, arrived at Vanderbilt with a clear role on defense. In 2023, he became the first freshman in team history to record a pick-six. He continued to display good ball skills on defense last year, while becoming a bigger factor on punt returns, averaging 14.7 yards with a touchdown, and earning second-team All-SEC honors. After the offseason interaction with Kill, Hight emphasized his desire to play offense to the coaches, and then began running routes with starting quarterback Diego Pavia in spring practice.
“I don’t know that we had quite the idea of how dynamic he could be for us at receiver until we started playing him there and realized that he’s really natural as a pass catcher and a route runner,” Lea said. “As we got out of spring, it was, ‘Hey, let’s see how we can take this a little further.'”
Lea reached out to new Jacksonville Jaguars coach Liam Coen, who selected Hunter at No. 2 in April’s NFL draft, about how they intended to use Hunter at the pro level. Kill, who led programs at New Mexico State, Minnesota, Northern Illinois and elsewhere during a 40-year career in college football, contacted Colorado coach Deion Sanders.
“We had a basis of understanding of what he did in college, what Jacksonville’s plan was for him in training camp,” Lea said. “But everybody’s different. We’ve got to look at Martel and think about where we think he can net out here.”
Other coaches made a similar point when asked about the effect Hunter will continue to have on college football. Hunter showed what is possible when given the chance to do it all, but very few can handle anywhere near the play load he took on at Colorado. Hunter famously logged 144 snaps in his Colorado debut at TCU, and eclipsed 120 the following week against Nebraska.
“He’s an anomaly, and you’ve got to understand that that’s not doable for 99.99% of the players,” Whittingham said of Hunter. “So going both ways is a relative statement, because if you go both ways but only play a total of 65 snaps a game, then that’s a normal workload.”
The challenge, then, is figuring out what each player can handle. Snowden played 22 snaps on both defense and offense in the opener at UCLA, as well as three on special teams.
If Utah had been in a closer game, he might have been out there more. Snowden said this past season, he averaged 55-60 snaps per game, almost all on defense.
“I could get to 70 [snaps],” he told ESPN last week. “It will vary game to game. I’m a defense specialist when it comes down to it, so defense is my position, and whatever the team needs on offense, I’m down.”
THOSE ATTEMPTING TO follow Hunter’s path this season have similar profiles.
“They’re primarily defensive guys, and they play some offense,” Whittingham explained. “It’s not very common to have it go the other way.”
Hunter came into college football as ESPN’s No. 2 recruit, and the top cornerback in the 2022 class. Although he broke the Georgia high school record for receiving touchdowns with 48 and had nearly 4,000 receiving yards, he projected as a top defensive back. Despite only 18 receptions his first college season at Jackson State, Hunter saw his receiving production spike at Colorado, and won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top wide receiver this past season. As a high school senior, Minnesota’s Perich accounted for 27 touchdowns in 10 games — five on defense, four on returns and 16 on offense. He was rated as the top prospect from Minnesota and signed with the Gophers as the nation’s No. 172 recruit and No. 14 safety.
Perich made an immediate impact in 2024, becoming the first freshman in the FBS since at least 1976 to record five interceptions, at least 100 kickoff return yards and at least 100 punt return yards in a season. His 565 all-purpose yards, from returns and interceptions, ranked fourth on the team. As soon as the season finished, Minnesota’s coaching staff began carving out a role for Perich on offense.
Perich spent the spring working with both units, spending 70-75% of his time with the defense, but still attending some meetings with offensive coordinator Greg Harbaugh Jr. and co-coordinator Matt Simon. Through two games, Perich has two catches, five punt returns and five tackles.
“You can throw somebody out there and just throw him a deep ball and gimmick him, but is that really playing offense?” Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck told ESPN. “There’ll be certain [individual practice] periods dedicated to safety, certain periods where you come over and play wideout. He’s going to show me ultimately how much he can handle.”
Although Hunter’s talent set him apart, he also embraced the mental toil of toggling between position groups and learning as much as he could on both sides of the ball.
“There’s a burden in this with the player,” Lea said. “There’s a willingness that you don’t have any downtime in the building. You have to go all the time. He’s got to buy into that. Martel is so bright and confident on both sides, we’ve been able to really not hold back on anything.”
Syracuse coach Fran Brown recognizes the mental challenge as well, saying two-way hopefuls must learn an entire playbook and at least a few chapters of another. While other teams are exploring the option with more experienced players, Syracuse is assessing what it has with true freshman Demetres Samuel Jr., who is only 17 and was just 16 when he enrolled this winter.
An ESPN 300 recruit, Samuel has started Syracuse’s first two games and had eight tackles Aug. 30 against UConn. He hasn’t recorded a catch at wide receiver but is expected to have a role there.
“You can’t get down and frustrated when you don’t do well at first, you’re taking two tests, and we’re asking you to learn two things,” Brown told ESPN. “I tell him, ‘You’ve got to run. I don’t care that you just got out of that side, you’ve got to run. Up and down.’ He’s got a lot better at it lately. It takes time.”
As Minnesota and other programs decide how to divide the time for their two-way players, they must weigh what they’re gaining on offense with what they could lose on defense.
“You don’t want to do anything that starts the law of diminishing returns,” Fleck said.
Snowden and Barton were two of Utah’s most productive defenders in 2024. Barton led the Utes in tackles with 72, while Snowden had a team-high eight pass breakups. They were two of three Utah players with multiple interceptions, and each recorded a forced fumble.
Late in the season, Barton provided one of Utah’s top defensive highlights against Iowa State, catching a deflected pass, wriggling free of quarterback Rocco Becht‘s tackle attempt and then sprinting down the sideline for an 87-yard scoring return.
“My theory has always been, you master one position before you even think about playing both ways,” Whittingham said. “It’s not fair to play a guy two ways unless he has a substantial grasp of one side of the ball first. Those guys are experts at defensive play and their assignments. So really, the learning curve is on the other side.”
Minnesota’s coaches organized Perich’s schedule with efficiency in mind. Defensive coordinator Danny Collins said that Perich might get the ball thrown to him on the first play of a practice period on offense and then spend the rest of the time on defense. Or he’ll alternate between offense and defense, much like Hunter did at Colorado.
The Gophers’ depth in the secondary made the plan a bit easier to sell to Collins.
“At first, it was like, ‘Whoa, whoa, whoa, let’s hold on: This is an All-Big Ten safety,'” Collins said. “But at the same time, he’s a tremendous athlete. When the ball is in his hands, special things are going to happen, whether he’s picking it off, whether it’s a punt return. And then you think about, ‘OK, we can put him on offense and get the ball in his hands, now that’s going to help the whole team.'”
WHEN MAPPING OUT the plan for Perich at Minnesota, Fleck watched a lot of Colorado film. His goal wasn’t necessarily to identify a direct comparison, but rather to assess how the Buffs used a distinct talent like Hunter.
“In the new world, that’s the only one you get to look at,” Fleck said of Hunter. “Like, what athlete did it besides Travis Hunter? I don’t see it being trendy, because it’s too hard to be trendy. It takes a really special athlete in a really unique situation that fits. That’s what we have in Koi.”
In his NFL debut, Hunter became the second NFL player in the past 10 years to play at least 30 offensive snaps and five defensive snaps in the same game. Whether he sparks a true trend of two-way players remains to be seen. What’s clear is he has at least cracked open the door for others to try.
Like Kill at Vanderbilt, Brown also contacted Sanders about Hunter’s workload and how he approached such an added workload.
“It’s really hard,” Brown said. “People will try to go down that road. But Coach Prime is a special guy. It takes somebody special like Travis to truly, truly do it. I think Demetres has that chance.”
Hight doesn’t need much prodding about the chance to play more on offense. When he arrived at Vanderbilt, former defensive backs coach Dan Jackson floated the possibility of him taking some snaps with the offense.
After two seasons, though, he didn’t think it was going to happen, which has made this fall even sweeter.
“Honestly, I can play all day,” he said. “I’m like an energetic ball on the field. I’m having so much fun being there with the guys. I don’t really have a number [of snaps]. I’ll go until my heart stops.”
Hight thinks the more players who show they can be reliable options on both sides of the ball will reduce teams’ reliance on the transfer portal to address specific needs, like at wide receiver. But will there be a limit on how many teams explore the two-way track?
“It’s always going to be rough because you’re playing two years of football in one,” said an assistant coach from a top 10 team. “If you’re on a team that’s actually really good, it’s hard to see a guy doing part time at a position and then be better than a guy who’s doing full time.”
Lea has often thought about Hunter since exploring a two-way role for Hight, and how much the Colorado star truly influenced Vanderbilt’s decision. Ultimately, Lea kept coming back to an enduring truth about personnel.
“We can’t afford to not have our best 11 out on the field,” he said.
Sports
Bubble Watch: What we’ve learned through Week 2
Published
5 hours agoon
September 9, 2025By
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The College Football Playoff selection committee members will tell you they don’t rank conferences — they rank teams — but the Big Ten and SEC are leading the way in nonconference wins that will impact the committee’s rankings through Selection Day.
According to ESPN Research, the SEC enters Week 3 with a 27-3 nonconference record (8-2 against Power 4 opponents), while the Big Ten is 31-5 (5-3 against Power 4 opponents). The Big 12 is 24-8 but 5-6 against Power 4, and the ACC is 22-10 but 3-9 against Power 4 teams.
Those results impact the following conference-by-conference playoff breakdown — listed in order of who is projected to have the most teams in the 12-team field.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each Power 4 league, and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date. Mississippi State, for example, just earned a big nonconference win against Arizona State, so while the Bulldogs probably aren’t ready for the CFP yet, they’re still listed under Work to do to account for the upward trajectory that win provides early.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
SEC
Bubble watch spotlight: Oklahoma. The Sooners might have the best quarterback in the country with transfer John Mateer, whose true dual-threat ability was on full display in a statement win against Michigan. Mateer led the Sooners in passing and rushing in a performance that bumped them into the early playoff conversation, but if they occupy that No. 12 spot on Selection Day, they’re out. With the projected Big 12 champion and Group of 5 champion looming outside of the top 12, the committee’s No. 11 and No. 12 teams would get bumped out. The more pressing question, though, is whether Oklahoma has sustainability. ESPN’s FPI gives the Sooners less than a 50% chance to beat Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama. Yes, Mateer gives Oklahoma’s offense a dramatic boost and has revived the program’s hopes of returning to national relevance, but the Sooners have to be better around him to prove the computer projections wrong.
The enigma: Alabama. Were the Tide that bad in their loss to Florida State, or are the Seminoles that good? It’s probably a combination of both, but how those teams fare will impact each other’s résumés in the committee meeting room all season. What if Alabama lost on the road to a top-four ACC champion? What if FSU’s big win was against a five-loss Alabama team that spirals down the stretch? Alabama beat down Louisiana-Monroe 73-0 in Week 2. It was the largest shutout for Alabama since 1951. Yes, it was against a weaker opponent, but Ty Simpson still completed all 17 of his passes — the most without an incompletion in a game in SEC history. So no, the performance against FSU wasn’t good, particularly up front, but ESPN’s FPI projects the Tide to win each of their remaining games — except on Sept. 27 at Georgia, which is a coin toss (53.6% chance for the Dawgs). If Alabama is a two-loss team with losses to the ACC and SEC champs … it’s in the playoff.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas (63%), Georgia (62.4%), Tennessee (53%), LSU (26.5%)
Work to do: Ole Miss (59.8%), Alabama (48.6%), Auburn (33.3%), Missouri (26.7%), Texas A&M (20.6%), South Carolina (19.8%), Oklahoma (19.2%), Mississippi State (1.7%)
Would be out: Arkansas (17.7%), Vanderbilt (10.7%), Florida (5.1%), Kentucky (1.3%)
Big Ten
Bubble watch spotlight: Illinois. The Illini entered this season with high expectations after returning 18 starters from a 10-win team that finished in the Top 25 last year. Saturday’s win against Duke was the first real step in living up to them: A convincing road victory against a respectable program that won nine games last year. Duke was very generous in this game, surrendering five turnovers, and Illinois was hardly flawless, allowing four sacks before halftime. Illinois avoids Oregon, Michigan and Penn State this year, so it will need to take advantage of the opportunities it has, starting on Sept. 20 at Indiana. The toughest game is Oct. 11 against Ohio State, but Illinois will have home field advantage. If Illinois loses both of those games, it could be a hard sell in the committee meeting room. The Illini would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to Indiana, which could be the difference in who gets the at-large bid. If their only loss, though, is to Ohio State, even if they finish as the Big Ten runner-up, the Illini could be this year’s version of 2024 Indiana. Speaking of the Hoosiers …
The enigma: Indiana. Are the Hoosiers a playoff team again? They have a more difficult road to prove it, with three games against ranked opponents (Illinois, Oregon and Penn State) — plus a tricky road trip to Iowa. Last year, Ohio State was the only ranked opponent Indiana faced during the regular season — a 38-15 loss. It didn’t matter, though, because IU beat everyone else it played — soundly. The Hoosiers can’t go 0-3 against the ranked teams on this season’s schedule, though, and expect an at-large bid — especially when the nonconference lineup includes Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Hoosiers a 61.3% chance to beat Illinois, which would be critical in a debate for an at-large spot. If the Hoosiers lose to Penn State and Oregon, would it be enough to earn a spot as a two-loss team? If they look as dominant as they did last year, then possibly. It would certainly help their case if other Big Ten opponents were above .500 or ranked by the committee.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Ohio State (82.4%), Oregon (81.5%), Penn State (54.1%)
Work to do: USC (59.3%), Indiana (21.5%), Illinois (14.1%), Wisconsin (2.6%)
Would be out: Nebraska (27.4%), Washington (7.4%), Michigan (4%), Rutgers (3.8%), Minnesota (1.7%), Iowa (0.8%), Maryland (0.5%), Michigan State (0.4%), Northwestern (0%), Purdue (0%), UCLA (0%)
ACC
Bubble watch spotlight: Clemson. The Tigers dropped out of this week’s playoff projection after a second week of ho-hum offense. The LSU defense had a lot to do with making Clemson one-dimensional in the season opener, but Troy? Some of it could have been the letdown effect after losing a tough opener at home, but this is a veteran offense that has sputtered and stuttered. Clemson trailed 16-0 before scoring the final 27 points to win and avoid utter embarrassment. The Tigers needed the largest comeback the school has seen since 2020 against Boston College. Clemson earned a spot in the playoff last year as a three-loss ACC champ, so the Tigers certainly aren’t eliminated. They will be, though, if they don’t get that offense moving.
The enigma: Georgia Tech. With Haynes King in the lineup, Georgia Tech is a tough team capable of building upon last year’s seven-win season under coach Brent Key, but is this team capable of being more than a CFP spoiler? Remember, the Jackets beat Miami last year and pushed Georgia to eight overtimes — in Athens. This year, they avoid Miami, Florida State and SMU. Even without King, who was sidelined on Saturday with a lower body injury, the Jackets beat overmatched Gardner-Webb 59-12 and backup quarterback Aaron Philo got some meaningful reps. The committee will learn more about both Clemson and Georgia Tech on Saturday when the Jackets host the Tigers — a game ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia Tech a 55.9% chance to win. If that happens, Georgia Tech should be favored in every remaining game — except the regular-season finale against rival Georgia. And — gasp — if Georgia Tech is sitting there on Selection Day having played in the ACC title game and with a lone regular-season loss to Georgia, this “enigma” is suddenly a playoff contender. The Jackets would be a lock with the ACC title, and in high consideration as a two-loss runner-up.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Miami (33.4%), Florida State (22.8%)
Work to do: Georgia Tech (17.1%), Clemson (11.4%), SMU (8.2%)
Would be out: Louisville (5.1%), Virginia (3.2%), Pitt (2.8%), Boston College (1.8%), NC State (1.7%), Cal (0.7%), Duke (0.6%), Virginia Tech (0.5%), Syracuse (0.2%), North Carolina (0%), Stanford (0%), Wake Forest (0%)
Big 12
Bubble watch spotlight: Iowa State. The Big 12 winner will earn a spot in the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions, but the ultimate champ in this wide-open league is anyone’s guess. Right now, ESPN Analytics gives Utah the best chance to win the Big 12 (21.9%), followed by TCU (19.9%), BYU (17.7%) and then Iowa State (9.5%). The Cyclones, though, would have a slight edge with the committee because of two Power 4 wins against Kansas State and rival Iowa. Still, the league isn’t represented in our latest projection of the committee’s top 12. That’s because other teams have better résumés or have looked better (or a combination of both), and because Iowa State’s season-opening win against K-State will be devalued a bit after the Wildcats lost to Army (which lost to Tarleton State!). The committee also looks at opponents’ opponents. ESPN’s FPI projects Iowa State will lose to both BYU and TCU, but this is the kind of conference race that should go into late November — like it did last year. A two-loss Big 12 champ is in, but anything less than a title would open the door for debate.
The enigma: Texas Tech. The boosters have poured money by the bucketful into a highly-rated class of 22 transfers. Billionaire Cody Campbell said publicly the school’s collective has raised $63.3 million since it was formed in 2022. And coach Joey McGuire was quoted this summer in the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal saying it’s “the best roster I’ve ever been a part of.” Now it’s time to see if they got their money’s worth. So far, the Red Raiders have scored 129 points in two games — albeit against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Kent State. ESPN’s FPI says Texas Tech will lose two regular-season games — Sept. 20 at Utah and Nov. 8 against BYU. And the Oct. 18 trip to Arizona State is a 50-50 game. If Texas Tech finishes the regular season as a two-loss team — and doesn’t win the Big 12 — it probably won’t have a résumé impressive enough for an at-large bid. If the Red Raiders’ lone loss is a close one in the Big 12 title game, though, it would give the league a strong chance at two CFP teams.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Iowa State (12.9%)
Work to do: Utah (27.2%), TCU (24.8%), BYU (22.8%), Texas Tech (11.1%), Baylor (5.7%)
Would be out: Kansas (6.3%), Arizona (3.4%), Arizona State (3.1%), UCF (1.7%), Houston (1.1%), Cincinnati (0.9%), Kansas State (0.7%), Colorado (0.4%), West Virginia (0.1%), Oklahoma State (0%)
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame (24%). This is a team the committee would like better than the computers right now, as the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Notre Dame the 18th-best chance of getting into the playoff — behind the likes of Auburn, Nebraska and TCU. The close loss at Miami didn’t doom the Irish. A home loss on Saturday to Texas A&M, though, and the Irish are in trouble. ESPN’s FPI gives Notre Dame a 71.2% chance to win at home — and the second-best chance in the country to win out (behind Ohio State). If that happens, and Notre Dame finishes as a one-loss team (possibly to the ACC champs), the committee would consider Notre Dame for one of the top four seeds and a first-round bye. Those spots are no longer reserved for conference champions, so there’s no ceiling anymore for the independent Irish. Without a conference championship game, though, Notre Dame’s résumé has to stand on its own on Selection Day. That’s why a second loss could be so damaging — there’s no opportunity to lock up a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions, and there’s not another chance to impress the committee against a ranked opponent. So, if the Irish start 0-2, even if they run the table, they will have to bank on wins against the likes of Arkansas, Boise State, USC, Navy and Syracuse to earn an at-large bid. It seems … like a stretch.
Group of 5
Bubble watch spotlight: South Florida. The Bulls have already defeated the computers, which projected an 0-2 start. Now, with statement wins against Boise State and Florida — two teams that were ranked in the AP Top 25 at the time — South Florida is leading the race for a Group of 5 playoff spot. ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 72.3% chance to beat South Florida at home on Saturday, but even if the Bulls lose, they will still impress the selection committee with their 2-0 start. If South Florida wins the American Conference, it should earn a spot in the playoff because it’s going to be hard for another Group of 5 champion to finish with a better résumé. Things could get interesting if South Florida runs the table but loses in its conference title game. The committee would consider the Bulls for an at-large spot along with the top Group of 5 champion. With regular-season wins against Boise State, Florida and Miami — especially if the Canes win the ACC — no other Group of 5 team would beat that résumé. Only two weeks into the season, South Florida is already ranked No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, trailing only Ohio State and Florida State. The selection committee is using a similar metric this season to help evaluate how teams performed against their schedules.
The enigma: Tulane. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Tulane has the second-best chance in the American to reach the playoff (19.8%) behind South Florida. The Green Wave earned a Power 4 win in their opener, albeit at home against an unranked Northwestern team. Tulane has another chance to start to separate itself from the other Group of 5 contenders on Saturday against Duke, but the biggest opportunity will be on Sept. 20 at Ole Miss. This would be even more impressive than South Florida’s win at The Swamp because the Rebels look like a tougher opponent. ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss an 87.3% chance to win.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: South Florida (34%)
Work to do: Tulane (19.8%), Memphis (16.6%), UNLV (11.1%), Navy (2.8%)
Sports
Sources: Colorado expected to start Staub at QB
Published
5 hours agoon
September 9, 2025By
admin
In one of the bigger surprises of the first month of the college football season, Colorado is pivoting to Ryan Staub as the starting quarterback at Houston on Friday night, sources told ESPN.
Staub began the season as Colorado’s third-string quarterback, an afterthought behind veteran Kaidon Salter and decorated freshman Julian Lewis.
But after shining against Delaware on Saturday by completing 7 of 10 passes for 157 yards and two touchdowns, the staff has indicated that Staub will be the starter this week, sources said. He was spotted working with the first team in practice on Monday in the open media period.
Salter entered the season with a 23-6 record as a starter. Lewis ranked No. 12 overall in the Class of 2025, enrolling a year early for the chance to compete at Colorado.
After a season-opening loss to Georgia Tech, Colorado played three quarterbacks in the 31-7 win over Delaware on Saturday. Staub’s performance clearly caught the eye of coach Deion Sanders.
He complimented Staub, a third-year sophomore, for not jumping into the portal and for sticking around Boulder. He called him “a great human being” and portended the starting switch. “I know exactly how I’m going to handle the quarterback situation,” Sanders said on Saturday. “I’m not going to say it, but yeah, I’m not lost for direction.”
So far with the Buffaloes, Salter threw for one touchdown and ran for two more. He is completing 68.2% of his passes.
Lewis debuted against Delaware and finished 2-for-4 passing for 8 yards. Sanders said after the game that Colorado wants to “proceed with caution” with Lewis, who turns 18 later this month.
Staub was an afterthought in the national conversation around Colorado entering the season. He’d started one game in 2023 for the injured Shedeur Sanders, completing 17 of 24 passes against Utah. He threw a touchdown pass to Travis Hunter.
Staub was ESPN’s No. 26 overall pocket passing quarterback in the Class of 2023.
He seized his moment by executing a touchdown drive on a two-minute drill to close the half. He opened the second half with a 71-yard touchdown pass to Sincere Brown, and he played the rest of the third quarter.
Staub said postgame: “To be honest, this whole week, I wasn’t really expecting to play. Friday, I kind of got the call and, OK, I might be playing. I was just waiting on an opportunity. Didn’t know it would be a two-minute drill, and kind of the rest is history.”
ESPN’s Max Olson contributed to this report.
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