Conn Smythe Watch: Connor McDavid for MVP of the playoffs — win or lose?
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Greg Wyshynski
The 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs are down to their final two teams, as the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers meet for the second straight season for the right to lift the chalice. One of the players in this series is going to win the Conn Smythe as NHL postseason MVP.
Mikko Rantanen led the Conn Smythe Watch over the past two rounds of voting. But he’s gone, and so are the Dallas Stars, which means there’s a new leader for NHL postseason most valuable player.
We asked more than two dozen national and beat writers covering the Stanley Cup Final to name their top three MVP candidates after three rounds of play. Ballots were collected and tabulated before Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final.
Keep in mind that in the NHL, the Conn Smythe is based on a player’s performance during the entire postseason, not only the championship round. The award is voted on by an 18-person panel of Professional Hockey Writers Association members.
The current MVP leader
McDavid won the Conn Smythe last postseason in a losing effort. Based on his lead for the award heading into that rematch with Florida, he might win it again — whether the Oilers win or lose.
McDavid takes over the lead from Rantanen, moving up from third on our voters’ ballots before the conference finals. He’s the only player to appear on every ballot we collected, and he was ranked first overall on 71% of them. Every ballot that didn’t have McDavid first had him ranked second.
The Edmonton star enters the Final with 26 points (six goals, 20 assists) in 16 games. He roasted the Stars with points in every game, and nine points total in their five-game elimination of Dallas. Two of those goals ended up being game-winners, although the Oilers outscored the Stars by a 19-5 margin in their wins.
“McDavid won me over in the last series,” one voter revealed.
Last postseason, McDavid became the second non-goalie in NHL history to win the Conn Smythe in a losing effort, as the Oilers fell in Game 7 to the Panthers. Now, he’s trying to become the fourth player ever — and the first player since Sidney Crosby (2016-17) — to win consecutive Conn Smythe Trophies.
There’s a non-zero chance he could win a second straight playoff MVP award in a losing effort, given his current level of support from voters. But that’s probably the last thing McDavid wants to experience again.
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The other favorites
If it’s not McDavid, “Playoff Bob” might have the inside track for the Conn Smythe over his Florida Panthers teammates.
Bobrovsky has a .912 save percentage and a 2.11 goals-against average in the playoffs. He had a save percentage of .920 or better in four of the Panthers’ five games against the Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference finals — his worst game statistically was in their Game 5 elimination of the Canes. That’s the only game of his past nine appearances, dating back to the second round against Toronto, in which Bobrovsky had given up more than two goals. Bobrovsky is tied with Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner with three shutouts to lead the postseason.
Bobrovsky was the clear second choice by our voters, thanks to four first-place votes for the Conn Smythe.
“If Florida wins, I assume it’ll be because Bob is amazing,” explained one voter who had him second.
Barkov leads the Panthers with 17 points in 17 games, including six goals. Look no further than Game 5 against Carolina to witness his impact, as Barkov was a one-man forecheck before assisting on the series-clinching goal late in the third period. The Panthers score 57% of the goals and generate 57% of the expected goals when Barkov is on the ice at 5-on-5.
Florida’s captain was first on one ballot we collected and appeared on 63% of all ballots. That’s actually more than Bobrovsky (58%), but Bob had the higher placements.
For what it’s worth: Barkov was second to McDavid in the Conn Smythe voting last season despite not receiving a first-place vote.
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Making their cases
Draisaitl received the most support of any player outside the top three, but there was a palpable gap between him and Barkov. Draisaitl appeared on 42% of the ballots we collected but received only one first-place vote.
The Oilers star is one point behind McDavid, with 25 through 16 games, and has scored one more goal (seven) than McDavid in the playoffs. If Draisaitl has a dominant Stanley Cup Final and Edmonton wins the Cup, he’s in position to potentially hurdle over McDavid for MVP.
“This should probably be a top four thanks to Draisaitl,” argued one voter who had Leon right outside of their top three.
Bennett is the clear third choice on the Panthers. He appeared on 20% of the ballots we surveyed and garnered two second-place votes. Like Draisaitl, he’s only one point off the scoring lead for his team (16 points in 17 games).
Bennett leads the playoffs with 10 goals and has been a physical force for the Panthers in every series. As a pending unrestricted free agent, a Conn Smythe Trophy would do wonders for his earning potential.
On the cusp
Evan Bouchard, D, Edmonton Oilers
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, F, Edmonton Oilers
Seth Jones, D, Florida Panthers
Brad Marchand, LW, Florida Panthers
Bouchard was the only player in this tier to appear on multiple ballots, all of them third-place votes. He’s tied for fifth in the playoffs with 17 points, easily the most by any defenseman in the postseason, with 13 of those points coming at even strength. He leads all Oilers in average ice time (25:01 per game) and has skated to a plus-9.
The rest of the players received only one third-place vote.
Nugent-Hopkins is third on the Oilers, with 18 points in 16 games. He had the game-winner in the first period of their critical Game 2 win over the Stars.
Jones has seven points in 17 games for the Panthers, skating to a plus-9. While he has played on what’s technically the second paring with Niko Mikkola, Jones is leading Florida with 24:59 in average ice time per game.
Finally, Marchand has been huge for the Panthers down the lineup with 14 points in 17 games, bringing his trademark hustle, agitation and offense to the fourth run to the Stanley Cup Final in his career. He also scored the most important goal of the Panthers’ postseason: in overtime of Game 3, down 2-0 to Toronto in the series.
But one voter fancied Marchand’s linemate as an under-the-radar choice. “Eutu Luostarinen would legit be fourth for me,” the voter declared of the Florida winger, who has 13 points in 17 games.
Lack of buzz
Stuart Skinner, G, Edmonton Oilers
Sam Reinhart, F, Florida Panthers
Matthew Tkachuk, RW, Florida Panthers
Carter Verhaeghe, LW, Florida Panthers
According to ESPN BET, these players are among the top 10 in odds to win MVP before the Stanley Cup Final. But none received a vote on any of the ballots we surveyed.
Tkachuk (16 points in 17 games) and Verhaeghe (14 points in 17 games) are both among the Panthers’ leading scorers, with Verhaeghe having scored two game-winning goals in the playoffs. Verhaeghe appeared on one Conn Smythe ballot last postseason, while Tkachuk did not appear on any. Reinhart is right behind them, with 13 points in 15 games, having missed a couple games against Carolina due to an injury.
Skinner is perhaps the greatest reminder that the Conn Smythe is an award for the totality of the playoffs. Skinner has been incredible since his reset, getting benched in favor of Calvin Pickard before returning against Vegas in the second round when Pickard was injured. Since Game 4 against the Golden Knights, Skinner is 6-1 with a .944 save percentage, a 1.41 goals-against average and three shutouts.
Could an MVP effort in the Stanley Cup Final counterbalance Skinner’s struggles earlier in the playoffs? Perhaps. But then he’d still have to overcome McDavid for playoff MVP. And according to the ballots we received, McDavid’s running away with the thing right now.
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Alden Gonzalez
LOS ANGELES — Third baseman Max Muncy was diagnosed with a Grade 1 oblique strain and landed on the injured list Friday, a major blow to a Los Angeles Dodgers team that finds itself fading in the standings.
Muncy was originally a late scratch from Wednesday’s lineup after feeling soreness in his right side during pregame batting practice. The Dodgers’ hope was that sitting out for the finale from Angel Stadium, then getting extra rest during the Thursday off day, would allow Muncy to return for a critical series against the division-rival San Diego Padres, who have taken a one-game lead in the National League West.
But Muncy will miss this weekend’s series from Dodger Stadium, as well as the following series from San Diego’s Petco Park next weekend.
“I don’t think anyone expects it to be season-ending,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said, “but hopefully it’s sooner than later.”
Roberts doesn’t believe the current oblique injury is as bad as the one that forced Muncy to miss about two months last year, but even in a best-case scenario, the Dodgers might be without their third baseman and left-handed power hitter until around mid-September.
Muncy got off to a bad start this year before turning it on in the middle of May, slashing .312/.438/.616 with 11 home runs in a stretch of 41 games. Muncy then injured his left knee during a scary collision at third base and wound up missing most of July. He returned Aug. 4, went 8-for-23 with four home runs over the course of eight games, and now he’s out again — at a time when the reigning World Series champs could really use some reinforcements.
The Dodgers held a nine-game lead in the NL West as of July 3 and have since gone 12-21 to fall a game back of a surging Padres team that arrived in L.A. on the heels of a five-game winning streak. As many as six high-leverage relievers reside on the Dodgers’ IL, though three of them — Michael Kopech, Kirby Yates and Tanner Scott — are nearing returns. The offense, meanwhile, has been mostly unproductive over the past six weeks, posting an 0.708 OPS that ranks 22nd in the major leagues.
During Muncy’s absence, the Dodgers will use Alex Freeland, a switch-hitting rookie who’s batting .176 in his first 12 games, and Buddy Kennedy, a right-handed-hitting journeyman with a career .193 batting average. Other potential reinforcements like Tommy Edman, Hyeseong Kim and Enrique Hernandez remain on the IL and aren’t close enough to a return.
“It’s certainly a tough loss,” Roberts said. “I think it’s just guys got to continue to perform to their abilities. It’s hard to kind of backfill Max, what he means, as far as the plate discipline, the slug, the on-base, all that stuff. I feel good about our lineup, the guys that we have, and they just have to go out there and take good at-bats. That’s all we can do right now.”
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