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A new Home Office report has linked the UK’s balmy start to 2025 to a dramatic rise in the number of small boat crossings when compared to the same period last year.

However, analysis by the Sky News data team shows that there has also been a big rise in crossings on days when the weather has been poor.

A record 11,074 people arrived in small boats before May this year, a rise of almost 50% compared with the same period last year.

According to the Home Office figures, 60 of those days this year were classed as “red days” – where Channel crossings are more likely because of good weather – compared with just 27 last year.

In a new report released today, the Home Office says that the doubling of red days from January to April 2025, compared with the same period in 2024, “coincides with small boat arrivals being 46% higher” over that period.

Our analysis, using similar criteria to the Home Office, but not attempting to directly replicate their methodology, agrees that there have been an unusually high number of days this year when the weather makes for good sailing conditions.

But it also shows that there are significantly more people making the crossing when the weather is not ideal – a rise of 30% on last year, and more than double compared with the year before.

We’ve classified the weather as being favourable on a day when, for several consecutive hours early in the morning, wave height, wind speed, rain and atmospheric pressure were all at levels the Met Office says typically contribute to good conditions for sailing. There’s more detail on our methodology lower down this page.

There is a clear link between better weather and more people arriving in the UK on small boats.

An average of 190 people per day have arrived so far this year when the weather has been fair, compared with 60 on days with less consistently good conditions.

But if we look just at the days when the weather is not so good, we can also see a clear and consistent rise in the numbers over time.

That average of 60 arrivals per “low viability” day is a rise of more than 30% on last year, and more than double the 24 that arrived on each similar day in 2023.

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UK sees new Channel migrant record

There are a range of reasons why more people could be crossing on bad weather days.

Smuggler tactics are changing, and Home Office data shows severely overcrowded boats are becoming more common.

In the year to April 2022, just 2% of boats had 60 or more people on board, compared with 47% in the year to April 2025.

In other words, in the space of three years, the number of boats with more than 60 on board has gone from 1 in 50 to every second boat.

Dr Peter Walsh, senior researcher at the Migration Observatory at Oxford University, told Sky News that a rise in demand due to geopolitical issues, like the situation in Afghanistan, may be a factor, but that it is interesting that illegal entries to the EU are down while they have risen in the UK.

What is the Home Office doing?

The current government has placed a major emphasis on disrupting the smuggler gang supply chains to restrict the number of boats and engines making it to the French coast.

Part of the problem is that French authorities are unable to intercept boats once they are already in the water, which is believed to have been exacerbated by good weather.

The Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper, has confirmed the French government is reviewing its policies after she pressed for a law change that would allow police in France to apprehend migrants in shallow waters.

The Home Office released figures on Thursday that revealed France is intercepting fewer Channel migrants than ever before, despite signing a £480m deal with the UK to stop the crossings.

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‘Britain has lost control of its borders’

How are we defining good and bad days?

The Home Office says that its assessments of the likelihood of small boat crossings are passed to it by the Met Office.

“A Red, Amber, Green (RAG) daily crossing assessment is produced of the likelihood of small boat crossing activity based on the forecasted wave height and other environmental and non-environmental factors; such as rates of precipitation, surf conditions on beaches, wind speed and direction, open-source forecasts, and recent trends.”

We’ve not tried to replicate that methodology directly. But we’ve looked at Met Office categorisations for wave height, wind speed, atmospheric pressure and rain, four factors that each contribute to fair conditions for sailing in a small boat.

They say a wind speed of 5m/s is a “gentle breeze”. They classify precipitation as at least 0.1mm of rain per hour. If the “significant wave height” – the height of the highest one third of waves – is below 0.5m, they say that’s “smooth”.

Standard pressure at sea level is 1,013hPa, and high pressure “tends to lead to settled weather conditions” . We’ve set the minimum pressure at 1,015hPa, on the high side of standard, and used the thresholds listed above for the other metrics.

We’ve categorised a “high viability” day as one in which all four of those conditions were met in the Dover Strait for at least four consecutive hours, between 2am and 6am UK time.

A “low viability” day is where there is no more than one hour during which all those conditions were met. And “medium” is when the conditions are met for 2-3 hours.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Timeline of how manhunt for wrongly released sex offender migrant Hadush Kebatu unfolded

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Timeline of how manhunt for wrongly released sex offender migrant Hadush Kebatu unfolded

The small-boat sex offender Hadush Kebatu was arrested on Sunday morning on the third day of a manhunt after he was mistakenly freed from prison.

The Ethiopian national had been serving a 12-month sentence at HMP Chelmsford since September. He was due to be released in order to be immediately deported, but instead he was able to board a train to London.

The mistake triggered a manhunt that involved three police forces looking for the prisoner. He was finally tracked down to Finsbury Park on Sunday, where he was arrested.

Here, Sky News examines how the event has unfolded:

Friday 24 October

Kebatu is released from HMP Chelmsford wearing a prison-issued grey tracksuit. He is also holding a clear plastic bag containing his possessions.

The prison released him on the expectation that he would be picked up by immigration enforcement, and the Home Office was ready to take Kebatu to an immigration removal centre, it is understood.

But it is unclear exactly what happened next.

A lorry driver, who was delivering equipment to Chelmsford jail on Friday, told Sky News correspondent Tom Parmenter he saw the “confused” offender outside the facility being directed by prison staff to the city’s railway station following his release.

The offender is said to have returned to the prison “four or five times” but was turned away.

Footage later appears to show Kebatu in Chelmsford High Street.

In the video he appears to ask a group of people for help.

12.41pm: The prisoner boards a Greater Anglia London-bound train at Chelmsford station.

12.51pm: The train arrives at Shenfield station, in the Essex borough of Brentwood.

12.57pm: Essex Police are informed by the prison service that Kebatu was mistakenly released.

The force says it has launched a search operation and is working closely with partner agencies.

CCTV footage of Kebatu in Chelmsford. Pic: Met Police
Image:
CCTV footage of Kebatu in Chelmsford. Pic: Met Police

By the time the search started, the train that Kebatu boarded at Chelmsford had already called at Shenfield, according to Trainline data.

Essex Police appeals to anyone who has seen the prisoner to contact the force immediately.

1.12pm: Kebatu gets off the train at Stratford in east London.

8pm: Kebatu was seen in the Dalston area of Hackney.

He was pictured still wearing his prison-issue grey tracksuit top and bottoms, and was carrying his belongings “in a distinctive white bag with pictures of avocados on it”.

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Wanted asylum seeker captured on CCTV

Kebatu in Dalston. Pic: Met Police
Image:
Kebatu in Dalston. Pic: Met Police

Saturday 25 October

12.37pm: The Metropolitan Police announces it has taken over the manhunt for Kebatu.

In a statement, commander James Conway says senior investigating officers are “examining CCTV” from around Stratford station and further afield, to establish information about the prisoner’s subsequent movements.

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Police call on public to assist on manhunt

2.00pm: A delivery driver who spoke to Kebatu outside Chelmsford prison tells Sky News the “confused” offender was guided to the railway station by prison staff.

He says Kebatu approached him with no idea of where he was supposed to go.

He adds the prisoner must have been outside the prison for roughly “an hour and a half”, before he finally left, adding: “They [the officers] were basically sending him away, saying, ‘Go, you’ve been released, you go’.”

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Witness: Wrongly freed migrant ‘asked me for help’

4.30pm: Met Police Commander James Conway makes a direct appeal to Kebatu.

“We want to locate you in a safe and controlled way. You had already indicated a desire to return to Ethiopia when speaking to immigration staff,” he says.

“The best outcome for you is to make contact directly with us by either calling 999 or reporting yourself to a police station.”

He says he believes Kebatu has access to funds and that he’s sought assistance from members of the public and station staff in both Chelmsford and London.

Read more:
How many prisoners are released by mistake?

Sunday 26 October

8.30am: After receiving information from the public, the Met trace Kebatu to Finsbury Park where he is arrested and taken into custody.

9.30am: Met Police put out press statement confirming the arrest of Kebatu and say: “This has been a diligent and fast paced investigation led by specialist officers from the Metropolitan Police, supported by Essex Police and the British Transport Police.

“Information from the public led officers to Finsbury Park and following a search, they located Mr Kebatu. He was detained by police, but will be returned to the custody of the Prison Service.

“I am extremely grateful to the public for their support following our appeal, which assisted in locating Mr Kebatu.”

What happened in the lead up to the wrongful release?

Kebatu was found guilty of five offences after a three-day trial at Chelmsford and Colchester magistrates’ courts in September.

His case led to protesters and counter-protesters taking to the streets in Epping, Essex, and eventually outside hotels housing asylum seekers across the country.

The incidents occurred in July, eight days after he arrived in the UK by small boat

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‘Terrible’ Caerphilly result akin to Hartlepool by-election loss, says Wes Streeting

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'Terrible' Caerphilly result akin to Hartlepool by-election loss, says Wes Streeting

The health secretary has compared the collapse of Labour’s vote in the Caerphilly by-election to the party’s defeat in Hartlepool in 2021 – when Sir Keir Starmer considered resigning as leader.

Wes Streeting described the party’s performance in the Senedd seat – where it took just 3,713 votes – as “terrible” and said it had to match Labour’s response to the Hartlepool by-election defeat.

Politics latest: UK in ‘despair’, warns Streeting

Plaid Cymru's Lindsay Whittle was elected to represent his hometown of Caerphilly. Pic: PA
Image:
Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle was elected to represent his hometown of Caerphilly. Pic: PA

Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Mr Streeting said the loss of Hartlepool to the Tories while the party was in opposition was a “shock to Labour’s core” and prompted Sir Keir to “change the Labour Party with a pace and scale of ambition” that paved the way for its landslide election victory last year.

The prime minister has admitted in several interviews that he considered resigning in the wake of the defeat.

Asked whether he was providing “withering criticism” of Sir Keir and the direction of his government, Mr Streeting said he was not but acknowledged that the public was “not yet feeling the change” Labour had promised.

“If I have one criticism of us collectively as a team, we are not telling a compelling enough story about who we are, who we’re for and what it is we are driving to do,” he said.

“Take that result in Caerphilly on the chin, take it to heart and show the same level of ambition and drive and the scale of change within government that the public are crying out for.”

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What does Plaid Cymru’s victory in Caerphilly mean for Labour?

Support for Labour in the Welsh town of Caerphilly slumped in the by-election on Thursday, where it came in third place behind winners Plaid Cymru, who won with 15,960 votes.

While a defeat was denied to Reform UK, which came second with 12,113 votes, the result has prompted fear within Labour ranks that it is losing support to rival left-wing parties as well as those on the right.

The result, which Sir Keir admitted was “bad” and “disappointing”, came during another challenging week for the prime minister.

On Saturday Lucy Powell, the former Commons leader who was sacked by Sir Keir in his most recent reshuffle, was elected Labour deputy leader in what has been interpreted as a repudiation of the prime minister’s leadership.

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Powell on plans to unite Labour Party

And the day before, a nationwide manhunt was triggered after Hadush Kebatu, an Ethiopian migrant who was jailed for 12 months in September for sexually assaulting a 14-year-old girl and a woman in Essex, was accidentally released from HMP Chelmsford.

The Metropolitan Police has confirmed it has now found Kebatu – whose crimes sparked protests outside the asylum hotel in Epping where he was staying – and that he was arrested in the Finsbury Park area of London at around 8.30am on Sunday morning.

Read more:
20 warnings for Sir Keir Starmer from new deputy leader

Mr Streeting said there needed to be accountability for the “egregious failure” which resulted in Kebatu’s release.

He said he agreed the incident was an example of “state failure” that played into the “sense of despair” felt across the country about the state of the country’s public services.

“There is a deep disillusionment in this country at the moment and, I’d say, growing sense of despair about whether anyone is capable of turning this country around,” he said.

“Now, I am an optimist in politics. I think there are green shoots of recovery in the NHS, in the economy, in our public services, but there is also so much more to do and we’ve got to attack those challenges with the level of energy and focus that the scale of the challenge demands.”

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Hadush Kebatu: CCTV images show last sightings of wanted asylum seeker after he was released from prison in error

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Hadush Kebatu: CCTV images show last sightings of wanted asylum seeker after he was released from prison in error

CCTV images have been released of a jailed asylum seeker who was accidentally freed from prison – as police detailed the last sighting of him.

Hadush Kebatu was released in error from HMP Chelmsford on Friday instead of being handed over to immigration officials for deportation – one month into a 12-month sentence.

As the manhunt continues, the images show him in the Essex town on Friday and later the same day in Dalston, east London, where he was carrying a “distinctive white bag with pictures of avocados on it”, said the Metropolitan Police.

The last sighting of Kebatu is thought to have been in Dalston CLR James Library in Dalston Square on Friday evening.

The Ethiopian national had been found guilty in September of sexually assaulting a 14-year-old girl and a woman in Epping.

His crimes while staying at The Bell Hotel in Epping sparked weeks of protests over the summer.

More on Essex

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Police call on public to assist on manhunt

The Met Police, which has been leading the search for Kebatu, alongside Essex Police and the British Transport Police, has made a direct appeal Kebatu to hand himself in.

He left Chelmsford train station at 12.42pm on Friday and arrived at Stratford station in east London soon after at 1.12pm.

Kebatu had since taken “a number of journeys” across London and had “access to funds”, according to Met Commander James Conway.

(L-R) Hadush Kebatu in Chelmsford on Friday and later in Dalston, east London. Pic: Met Police
Image:
(L-R) Hadush Kebatu in Chelmsford on Friday and later in Dalston, east London. Pic: Met Police

Last sighting

The force said he was last seen shortly before 8pm on Friday evening in the Dalston area of Hackney in east London.

It has released two CCTV images of him from Friday, one in Chelmsford where he was wearing his prison-issued, grey tracksuit and holding a clear, plastic bag containing his possessions.

Hadush Kebatu was arrested in July. Pic: Crown Prosecution Service/PA
Image:
Hadush Kebatu was arrested in July. Pic: Crown Prosecution Service/PA

The other was taken in Dalston, where he was still wearing his grey tracksuit, but was carrying his belongings “in a distinctive white bag with pictures of avocados on it”.

A Met statement added: “Additional officers have been deployed to the area to carry out further searches, but we are appealing for the help of local residents to report any sightings as soon as possible.”

Mr Conway has asked for members of the public who have given assistance to Kebatu to contact them or anyone who sees him to call 999.

And in a direct appeal to Kebatu, Mr Conway added: “We want to locate you in a safe and controlled way.

“You had already indicated a desire to return to Ethiopia when speaking to immigration staff, the best outcome for you is to make contact directly with us by either calling 999 or reporting yourself to a police station.”

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Watch: Witness describes confusion outside prison

Meanwhile, a lorry driver, who was delivering equipment to Chelmsford jail on Friday, told Sky News correspondent Tom Parmenter he saw the “confused” offender outside the facility being directed by prison staff to the town’s railway station following his release.

The witness, called Sim, said Kebatu came out of the jail saying, “Where am I going? What am I doing?” and hanging around for about 90 minutes as he tried to find out where he should be going.

Sim said the offender returned to the prison “four or five times” but was turned away.

He said Kebatu knew he should be deported but the prison staff were “basically sending him away” and saying to him, “Go, you’ve been released, you go”.

Hadush Kebatu, who was jailed for two sexual assaults in Epping. Pic: Essex Police/PA
Image:
Hadush Kebatu, who was jailed for two sexual assaults in Epping. Pic: Essex Police/PA

Kebatu was spotted later in Chelmsford town centre asking for assistance before getting on a train to London.

HM Prison and Probation Service is introducing new and mandatory procedures for prisoner releases after Kebatu was mistakenly freed, Ministry of Justice sources say.

Duty governors, who are responsible for the daily secure operation of prisons, will now be required to complete additional checks the evening before a release, it is understood.

Governors will need to provide assurance that the procedure is in place on Monday, Sky News understands.

Justice Secretary David Lammy said on Friday night that Kebatu was “at large in London”. He said he was “livid on behalf of the public” and added that he had launched an investigation.

Sir Keir Starmer said he was “appalled” at the accidental release and said it was “totally unacceptable”, adding: “This man must be caught and deported for his crimes.”

A prison officer has been taken off duties to discharge prisoners while an investigation takes place.

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