Government draws link between good weather and small boat crossings – but they are rising during bad conditions too

Published

2 months ago

June 3, 2025

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A new Home Office report has linked the UK’s balmy start to 2025 to a dramatic rise in the number of small boat crossings when compared to the same period last year.

However, analysis by the Sky News data team shows that there has also been a big rise in crossings on days when the weather has been poor.

A record 11,074 people arrived in small boats before May this year, a rise of almost 50% compared with the same period last year.

According to the Home Office figures, 60 of those days this year were classed as “red days” – where Channel crossings are more likely because of good weather – compared with just 27 last year.

In a new report released today, the Home Office says that the doubling of red days from January to April 2025, compared with the same period in 2024, “coincides with small boat arrivals being 46% higher” over that period.

Our analysis, using similar criteria to the Home Office, but not attempting to directly replicate their methodology, agrees that there have been an unusually high number of days this year when the weather makes for good sailing conditions.

But it also shows that there are significantly more people making the crossing when the weather is not ideal – a rise of 30% on last year, and more than double compared with the year before.

We’ve classified the weather as being favourable on a day when, for several consecutive hours early in the morning, wave height, wind speed, rain and atmospheric pressure were all at levels the Met Office says typically contribute to good conditions for sailing. There’s more detail on our methodology lower down this page.

There is a clear link between better weather and more people arriving in the UK on small boats.

An average of 190 people per day have arrived so far this year when the weather has been fair, compared with 60 on days with less consistently good conditions.

But if we look just at the days when the weather is not so good, we can also see a clear and consistent rise in the numbers over time.

That average of 60 arrivals per “low viability” day is a rise of more than 30% on last year, and more than double the 24 that arrived on each similar day in 2023.

There are a range of reasons why more people could be crossing on bad weather days.

Smuggler tactics are changing, and Home Office data shows severely overcrowded boats are becoming more common.

In the year to April 2022, just 2% of boats had 60 or more people on board, compared with 47% in the year to April 2025.

In other words, in the space of three years, the number of boats with more than 60 on board has gone from 1 in 50 to every second boat.

Dr Peter Walsh, senior researcher at the Migration Observatory at Oxford University, told Sky News that a rise in demand due to geopolitical issues, like the situation in Afghanistan, may be a factor, but that it is interesting that illegal entries to the EU are down while they have risen in the UK.

What is the Home Office doing?

The current government has placed a major emphasis on disrupting the smuggler gang supply chains to restrict the number of boats and engines making it to the French coast.

Part of the problem is that French authorities are unable to intercept boats once they are already in the water, which is believed to have been exacerbated by good weather.

The Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper, has confirmed the French government is reviewing its policies after she pressed for a law change that would allow police in France to apprehend migrants in shallow waters.

The Home Office released figures on Thursday that revealed France is intercepting fewer Channel migrants than ever before, despite signing a £480m deal with the UK to stop the crossings.

How are we defining good and bad days?

The Home Office says that its assessments of the likelihood of small boat crossings are passed to it by the Met Office.

“A Red, Amber, Green (RAG) daily crossing assessment is produced of the likelihood of small boat crossing activity based on the forecasted wave height and other environmental and non-environmental factors; such as rates of precipitation, surf conditions on beaches, wind speed and direction, open-source forecasts, and recent trends.”

We’ve not tried to replicate that methodology directly. But we’ve looked at Met Office categorisations for wave height, wind speed, atmospheric pressure and rain, four factors that each contribute to fair conditions for sailing in a small boat.

They say a wind speed of 5m/s is a “gentle breeze”. They classify precipitation as at least 0.1mm of rain per hour. If the “significant wave height” – the height of the highest one third of waves – is below 0.5m, they say that’s “smooth”.

Standard pressure at sea level is 1,013hPa, and high pressure “tends to lead to settled weather conditions” . We’ve set the minimum pressure at 1,015hPa, on the high side of standard, and used the thresholds listed above for the other metrics.

We’ve categorised a “high viability” day as one in which all four of those conditions were met in the Dover Strait for at least four consecutive hours, between 2am and 6am UK time.

A “low viability” day is where there is no more than one hour during which all those conditions were met. And “medium” is when the conditions are met for 2-3 hours.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

UK

Jay Slater took ecstasy and cocaine before he went missing – but did not steal a Rolex watch, inquest hears

Published

4 hours ago

July 24, 2025

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Jay Slater took ecstasy and cocaine before he went missing - but did not steal a Rolex watch, inquest hears

British teenager Jay Slater had taken ecstasy, cocaine and possibly ketamine – but did not steal a Rolex watch as he claimed on Snapchat – the night before he went missing in Tenerife, an inquest into his death has heard.

Bradley Geoghegan, who was on holiday with Mr Slater on the Spanish island, said the 19-year-old had also been drinking alcohol before he was last seen on 17 June last year.

Mr Slater’s disappearance sparked a huge search until his body was eventually found by a mountain rescue team from the Spanish Civil Guard in a ravine near the village of Masca around four weeks later on 15 July.

Home Office pathologist Dr Richard Shepherd said in May that a post-mortem examination gave the cause of death as head injuries, and Mr Slater’s body showed no evidence of restraint or assault, with the pattern of injuries consistent with a fall from a height.

The teenager, from Oswaldtwistle, Lancashire, had been to the NRG music festival with friends at the Papagayo nightclub in the resort of Playa de las Americas on 16 June.

Follow latest: Jay Slater inquest live updates

During the night out he was forced to leave a nightclub for being too drunk. However, instead of going back to the apartment he shared with Mr Geoghegan, he went to an Airbnb miles away in the northern village of Masca with two men they had met on the holiday.

The next morning Mr Geoghegan said he got a video call from Mr Slater, who was walking along a road and was still “under the influence”, Preston Coroner’s Court heard.

Mr Geoghegan said: “I said put your maps on to see how far you were. It was like a 14-hour walk or an hour drive. I said, ‘Get a taxi back’, then he just goes, ‘I will ring you back’.”

He added that did not think his friend had any money on him, and taxis in Tenerife insisted on payment up front before carrying a fare.

The inquest into Mr Slater’s death had begun in May but was adjourned the same day.

Dr James Adeley, a senior coroner for Lancashire and Blackburn with Darwen, made the decision after a number of witnesses who had been asked to give evidence could not be traced or were unable to attend.

The adjournment allowed for time to trace the witnesses who had been with him in the hours before he vanished.

Witness says Slater didn’t steal watch

This includes Ayub Qassim – one of the two men staying in the Airbnb that Mr Slater travelled back to.

Mr Qassim said he and Steven Roccas, the second man staying in the Airbnb, met Mr Slater and his friends out in Tenerife.

He added that Mr Slater asked if he could come back to his and Mr Roccas’ apartment on the night before he went missing.

Mr Qassim, giving evidence via videolink, told the hearing: “I did say, ‘Bro, oh mate, it’s so far away from the strip.’ There’s nothing happening there other than scenery. I said I would drop him off in the morning. He rolled with us.”

The coroner then asked Mr Qassim about messages Mr Slater had sent about a watch possibly being stolen.

Mr Qassim said while still on the strip before leaving for their apartment he saw what he described as a Romanian “Lucky-lucky” man take a watch from another person and tried to sell it to him and Mr Slater.

He added: “Jay did not steal no watch. I can say 100%.”

While on the drive to the Airbnb Mr Slater then posted a message to friends on social media, saying: “Just took a 12k Rolly (Rolex) off some c*** with this Maili (Somalian) kid. Off to get 10 quid (thousand) for it. Off my undies ha, ha, ha.”

Coroner Dr Adeley asked the witness: “You were not involved in taking a watch?”

Mr Qassim replied: “No. And neither was he.”

He said when they got to his Airbnb he gave Mr Slater a blanket and pillow and told him he could sleep on the sofa before going off to his own bed.

Slater said he ‘cut his leg on a cactus’

Lucy Law, who had to be traced along with Mr Geoghegan and Mr Qassim after the inquest was adjourned in May, was next to speak at the hearing and said Mr Slater was “definitely on a buzz… but not visibly mangled” the night before he went missing.

Ms Law said Mr Slater told her “there’s no way I’m going home” after she suggested it.

She is believed to be the last person to have had contact with the teenager after she spoke to him on a 22-second call on the morning he went missing.

He is believed to have said he had cut his leg on a cactus and got lost in the mountains. His phone battery was also said to be on 1% at this point.

Meanwhile, the coroner’s officer Alice Swarbrick said she was unable to get in touch with Mr Slater’s friend Brandon Hodgson and Mr Roccas so that they could give evidence at the inquest.

UK

Father guilty of murdering his two-week-old baby son in hospital

Published

8 hours ago

July 24, 2025

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Father guilty of murdering his two-week-old baby son in hospital

The father of a two-week-old baby has been found guilty of murdering him in hospital.

Daniel Gunter, 27, killed his son, Brendon Staddon, on 5 March 2024, a jury at Bristol Crown Court has concluded.

Baby Brendon suffered “catastrophic injuries” to his head, neck, legs and jaw, while he was a patient at the special care baby unit at Yeovil District Hospital in Somerset.

The jury found Gunter guilty of his son’s murder, but the baby’s mother, Gunter’s former partner Sophie Staddon, 23, was cleared of causing or allowing the death of a child.

Staddon was previously found not guilty of murder, and Gunter was cleared of causing or allowing the death of a child on the direction of the trial judge, Mr Justice Swift.

The defendants showed no emotion as the verdicts were returned.

“Daniel Gunter, you have been found guilty of murder. You will be remanded into custody pending the sentencing hearing,” the judge said.

“Sophie Staddon, you have been acquitted by the jury. Your bail will no longer be necessary, and you are free to go.”

Gunter, of no fixed address, will be sentenced on a later date yet to be fixed.

The court heard hospital staff had discovered Brendan’s serious injuries after Staddon told nurses her son was cold and asked them to check on him around 4am.

But while staff rushed to Brendon’s cot to try and save him, his parents walked outside for a cigarette, Charles Row KC, prosecuting, said during the three-week trial.

He said Brendon was found with his baby grow open, and staff soon realised he had suffered devastating injuries.

“In plain language, his head had been crushed so as to shatter his skull. He was badly bruised from head to toe, with deep scratches in his neck,” Mr Row said.

“He was later found to have, amongst other injuries, a broken neck, a broken jaw, broken legs, broken ankles and broken wrists.”

Staff carried the baby’s “limp, lifeless body” to the resuscitation area, but Brendon did not respond to treatment.

His parents were arrested by police outside the hospital as they were smoking.

Social services and Gunter’s family had raised concerns about the couple’s “lack of emotional warmth” toward their child before his death, Mr Row said.

A post-mortem examination found Brendon died of “blunt force impact(s) head injury” with multiple non-accidental injuries to the head.

The prosecution said during the trial that the jury needed to understand the “sheer brutality” involved in Brendon’s death, with Mr Row adding that “there was hardly a part of his body that was spared”.

UK

Two children and mother who died in Northern Ireland shooting named

Published

11 hours ago

July 24, 2025

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Two children and mother who died in Northern Ireland shooting named

Two children and a woman who died in a shooting in County Fermanagh have been named.

Vanessa Whyte, 45, and her two children, Sara Rutledge, aged 13, and 14-year-old James Rutledge, died in the shooting on Wednesday morning, the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) said.

A man, who is a member of the same household, was seriously injured in the shooting in the village of Maguiresbridge, about 75 miles (120km) southwest of Belfast.

Police launched a murder investigation, and Detective Chief Inspector Neil McGuinness asked people with information about the shooting incident to contact police.

“I am particularly keen to hear from anyone who had spoken to Vanessa, Sara or James over the last few weeks. If you are someone that Vanessa, Sara or James may have confided in, please come and speak to us,” he said.

“Any information, no matter how small or insignificant it may seem could prove crucial to our investigation.”

Police don’t anticipate any arrests being made at this stage, Superintendent Robert McGowan, district commander for Fermanagh and Omagh, said at a news conference on Wednesday.

Emergency services were called to the Drummeer Road area of Maguiresbridge at around 8am on Wednesday following a report raised from the property.

Two people were found dead at the scene, and two others were seriously injured.

One patient was taken to the Royal Victoria Hospital, Belfast, by air ambulance and the other to South West Acute Hospital by ambulance. Supt McGowan said the third person died at the South West Acute Hospital.

A local Gaelic football club said the victims were all “active and beloved” members of their club.

Sara and James Rutledge also used to be part of a local cricket club, which said in a statement that it was “extremely saddened by the tragic events”.

“Both of them turned out to be talented young cricketers and two absolutely lovely-natured children,” the statement read.

Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Hilary Benn said: “The news from Maguiresbridge is tragic and deeply distressing.

“My thoughts are with the victims, their relatives and the local community in Fermanagh.”

Sinn Fein MP Pat Cullen has expressed her deep shock over the shooting.

“I’m also thinking of all the wee school friends of those two wee children and what that must feel like for all of them and how the next few days and weeks will be for everyone, particularly just at the beginning of the school holidays,” she said.

DUP MLA Deborah Erskine, who represents Co Fermanagh in the Northern Ireland Assembly, said that the community was “stunned” by the shooting in “a rural, quiet area”.

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