ESPN has released its 2025 Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and projections, and our college football reporters are here to break them down.
The ratings, for the uninitiated, include forecasts for every team’s record, its chances of winning a conference title and of course, its probability to make the expanded 12-team playoff and win the national championship.
The FPI is a power rating that tracks each team’s strength relative to an average FBS squad. Teams are rated on offense, defense and special teams, with the values representing points per game.
Paolo Uggetti: Even though Kenny Dillingham said at Big 12 spring meetings recently that being considered one of the conference’s favorites after being picked to finish last in 2024 is “less fun,” I still think FPI is slightly undervaluing the Sun Devils at No. 24. Sure, they lost star running back Cam Skattebo to the NFL draft, but they also return a quarterback in Sam Leavitt (2,885 yards and 24 touchdowns last year) who could be a Heisman contender, wide receiver Jordyn Tyson (1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns) and defensive back Xavion Alford, among several other starters and stalwarts of last year’s Cinderella season. Dillingham won’t flinch at now being considered a favorite to win the conference and I imagine he’ll have ASU with plenty of fire and motivation come kickoff. It would not shock me to see them make another playoff run.
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Kenny Dillingham: ASU facing a different type of adversity this year
Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham explains the differences his team is facing this season after coming off a Big 12 title last season.
Mark Schlabach: I think you can argue that Clemson is one of the two best teams in the FBS entering the season (along with Penn State), and it’s certainly one of the best 10, so it’s surprising to see them in at No. 11. In our colleague Jordan Reid’s initial 2026 NFL mock draft, he had four Tigers going in the first round, including quarterback Cade Klubnik at No. 1. Three seasons ago, Clemson fans wondered whether Klubnik was the right guy for the job, now he’s considered one of the most polished passers in the sport, after throwing for 3,639 yards with 36 touchdowns and six interceptions last season. The Tigers have the best defensive line in the FBS, and Reid had tackle Peter Woods and edge rusher T.J. Parker going in the top 10, as well. The Tigers open the season against LSU at home and play at South Carolina in the finale, but I can’t see many ACC teams beating them.
Bill Connelly: There are quite a few non-SEC teams we could choose from here, but I’m going to go with No. 39 Iowa. The Hawkeyes have more to replace on defense than usual, but a) I can’t even pretend like they’ll have anything other than a top-10 or top-15 defense until proven otherwise, and b) the offense improved significantly last year (albeit from horrific to merely mediocre) and might have made a lovely QB upgrade by bringing in South Dakota State’s Mark Gronowski. Losing running back Kaleb Johnson hurts, but this very much feels like a top-25-level team to me, one I trust quite a bit more than quite a few of the teams directly ahead of the Hawkeyes in FPI.
Jake Trotter: Indiana did graduate quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who had a fabulous one season for the Hoosiers while propelling them to the playoff and the first 10-win season in school history. Indiana, however, returns several key players from last year’s squad, including All-Big Ten receiver Elijah Sarratt, defensive end Mikail Kamara, linebacker Aiden Fisher and cornerback D’Angelo Ponds. The Hoosiers also added Cal transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who brought plenty of experience (19 career starts) with him to Bloomington. Curt Cignetti has already proved he can coach. And with no Ohio State or Michigan on the schedule, it wouldn’t be completely stunning if Indiana knocks on the door of playoff contention once again.
Which team is FPI overvaluing?
Trotter: So we’re doing this again, huh? Every preseason, Texas A&M gets top-10 hype. Every season, the Aggies fail to deliver on it. Texas A&M has reached double-digit wins just once this century (the Johnny Football year in 2012). And yet, FPI is giving them the benefit of doubt again as the No. 8-ranked team. Mike Elko is a terrific coach and the Aggies, as always, have talent, including intriguing dual-threat sophomore quarterback Marcel Reed. But the Aggies ranked 51st last year in offensive EPA and 47th in defensive EPA. That hardly screams top 10 team. What’s really there to suggest the Aggies will be any different than what they’ve been?
Connelly: We can’t say for sure that FPI is overvaluing Texas because if Arch Manning lives up to his hype, the Longhorns really might be the best team in the country. However, if he’s merely very good instead of great, then holes elsewhere might become problematic. This is, after all, a team that lost four offensive line starters, its top four defensive linemen and two of the best DBs in the country in Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba. Steve Sarkisian has obviously recruited well, the replacements for those lost linemen could be excellent, and Texas will be very good regardless. But they’re only No. 1 if Arch is an All-American. No pressure.
Uggetti: I’m having a hard time with Miami all the way up at No. 9. I can see the case for it: They have a solid core of players returning throughout the roster and head coach Mario Cristobal and his staff were transfer portal merchants this offseason, bringing in several offensive weapons such as wideouts CJ Daniels (LSU), Keelan Marion (BYU) and Tony Johnson (Cincinnati) as well as some much needed help in the secondary via cornerback Xavier Lucas (Wisconsin) and safety Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State). Of course, the crux of the hype surrounding the Hurricanes hinges on their biggest portal addition, quarterback Carson Beck. After losing Cameron Ward to the draft, Cristobal & Co. are banking on Beck (who is coming off surgery for a torn UCL in his right elbow) to be the guy who was supposed to lead Georgia to a national title. Count me among the skeptics.
Schlabach: Given what transpired at Tennessee in the spring, I’m not sure the Volunteers are a top-25 team heading into the season, let alone one that should be ranked No. 10. I didn’t have the Volunteers ranked in my latest Way-Too-Early Top 25. I could see the Vols going one of two ways after quarterback Nico Iamaleava up and left for UCLA following an NIL dispute: The Vols are going to be better off with quarterback Joey Aguilar and his teammates will rally around him, or Augilar’s leap from Appalachian State to the SEC is too high. The Vols were already facing an uphill climb on offense, in my opinion, after SEC leading rusher Dylan Sampson departed, along with three of the team’s top receivers.
Which power conference team outside the FPI top 25 can make a run?
Trotter: Texas Tech landed the nation’s top transfer portal class, beefing up the trenches on both sides of the ball to a team that went 8-5 last season. With 24 career starts behind him, quarterback Behren Morton should be even better after throwing for 3,335 yards and 27 touchdowns last year. If the portal additions playing up front defensively, combined with the arrival of new defensive coordinator Shiel Wood, can bolster a unit that ranked just 108th in EPA last year, the Red Raiders could threaten for a conference title and playoff berth in what figures to be another wide-open Big 12.
Connelly: I would say that half the Big 12 is capable of playing at a top-15 or top-20 level and making a conference title (and, therefore, CFP) run, but I’m particularly intrigued by the duo of No. 32 TCU and No. 33 Baylor. They both won six of their last seven to end the season, and they both return stellar quarterbacks in Josh Hoover (TCU) and Sawyer Robertson (Baylor). I feel like I trust TCU’s returning personnel more, but Baylor’s Dave Aranda was extremely active in the transfer portal, too. The Revivalry — hey, it’s a better name than Bluebonnet Battle — is on October 18, and the winner will probably head into November as a serious Big 12 contender.
Uggetti: Washington (No. 27) had a disappointing 6-7 season in its first year in the Big 12 under new coach Jedd Fisch. The Huskies finished ninth in the conference and seem to have quietly stumbled into the shadow of their more successful Pacific Northwest neighbor, Oregon. But Fisch, like he showed at Arizona, can build a successful team over time. Washington brought in a top-25 recruiting class this past year and added some much-needed defensive reinforcements in the portal. Snagging four-star wide receiver Johntay Cook II from Texas will be a boon for expected starting quarterback Demond Williams Jr. who, after showing some flashes last season, could be primed for a breakout.
Which team’s odd ranking will be proven correct by the end of the season?
Schlabach: There’s a smorgasbord of “odd” rankings to select from. I think you can argue that No. 8 Texas A&M, No. 14 Auburn, No. 16 Oklahoma and No. 19 USC are probably ranked too high, and No. 12 LSU, No. 29 BYU, No. 31 Indiana and No. 35 Texas Tech are too low. LSU might have the SEC’s best quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, and coach Brian Kelly struck gold in the transfer portal, landing defensive ends Patrick Payton (Florida State) and Jack Pyburn (Florida), receivers Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky), offensive linemen Braelin Moore (Virginia Tech) and Josh Thompson (Northwestern) and cornerback Mansoor Delane (Virginia Tech). But LSU’s schedule is difficult, with road games at Clemson, Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, and I’m not sure they’ll be better than 9-3, which would put them right about No. 12.
Uggetti: I’ll take one of the teams Mark mentioned and focus on USC. At first glance, I was also surprised that FPI has them all the way up to No. 19 given the Trojans are coming off a disappointing 7-6 debut season in the Big 10. But the Trojans have made several strides this offseason, not just as a program by hiring general manager Chad Bowden from USC, but also as a team to put themselves in position to surprise in 2025. The defense continues to use the portal to add key talent such as defensive tackles Jamaal Jarrett (Georgia) and Keeshawn Silver (Kentucky). The most exciting player on the team, however, may be incoming freshman defensive lineman Jahkeem Stewart, who is likely to make an impact right away. A lot of the Trojans’ hopes this season are riding on quarterback Jayden Maiava and how he fares in his first full season as a starter. He finished with 1,201 yards and 11 touchdowns last season and a second year in Lincoln Riley’s offense should serve him well. USC’s schedule starts off slow, but the true test of the Trojans’ potential will be on the back end when they face a stretch of Illinois, Michigan and Notre Dame before finishing the season with Oregon, Iowa and UCLA.
“I don’t know if that’s a good thing or not,” Schwarber said.
Ten days after lifting the National League to victory in the first All-Star Game swing-off, Schwarber keeps going deep. He hit a pair of two-run homers Friday night, with the first drive, his milestone hit, starting the comeback from a 2-0 deficit. He got the ball back after it was grabbed by a Phillies fan attending with his friends in Yankee Stadium’s right-center-field seats.
“I saw it on the video and then I see the dude tugging,” Schwarber said. “I’m like: ‘Oh, they all got Philly stuff on.’ That was cool.”
He met the trio after the game, gave an autographed ball to each and exchanged hugs. When he went to get a third ball to autograph, one of the three said he just wanted the potential free agent to re-sign with the Phillies.
“You show up to the field every single day trying to get a win at the end of the day, and I think our fans kind of latch on to that, right?” Schwarber said. “It’s been fantastic these last 3½ years, four years now. The support that we get from our fans and it means a lot to me that, you know, that they attach themselves to our team.”
Schwarber tied it at 2-2 in the fifth against Will Warren when he hit a 413-foot drive on a first-pitch fastball.
After J.T. Realmuto‘s three-run homer off Luke Weaver built a 6-3 lead in a four-run seventh and the Yankees closed within a run in the bottom half, Schwarber sent an Ian Hamilton fastball 380 feet into the right-field seats.
Schwarber reached 1,000 hits with eight more homers than McGwire. Schwarber has 36 homers this year, three shy of major league leader Cal Raleigh, and six homers in seven games since he was voted All-Star MVP. He has 33 multihomer games.
“I don’t know where we’d be without him,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said. “Comes up with big hit after big hit after big hit. It’s just — it’s amazing.”
Schwarber, 32, is eligible for free agency this fall after completing a four-year, $79 million contract. He homered on all three of his swings in the All-Star Game tiebreaker, and when the second half began, Phillies managing partner John Middleton proclaimed: “We love him. We want to keep him.”
“He’s been an incredible force all season long,” Realmuto said. “What he’s meant to his team, his offense, it’s hard to put in words.”
A World Series champion for the 2016 Chicago Cubs, Schwarber has reached 35 homers in all four seasons with the Phillies. He’s batting .255 with 82 RBIs and a .960 OPS.
He also has almost as many home runs as singles (46).
Schwarber had not been aware he topped McGwire for most homers among 1,000 hits.
“I had no clue. I didn’t even know it was my 1,000th, to be honest with you,” he said.
Nick Kurtz of the Athletics became the first rookie in Major League Baseball history to hit four home runs in a game, part of a spectacular Friday night for the 22-year-old that will go down as one of the greatest offensive displays the sport has seen.
Kurtz also matched the MLB record with 19 total bases in the 15-3 triumph against the Astros in Houston.
“It’s arguably the best game I’ve ever watched from a single player,” Athletics manager Mark Kotsay said. “This kid continues to have jaw-dropping moments.”
Kurtz didn’t make an out all night, going deep in the second, sixth, eighth and ninth innings. He also doubled — a 381-foot drive that would have been out in six major league ballparks — and singled on his 6-for-6 night to equal Shawn Green, who had four homers, six hits and 19 total bases for the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 23, 2002 at Milwaukee.
Kurtz and Green are the only players with six hits in a four-homer game.
“It’s hard to think about this day being kind of real, it still feels like a dream,” Kurtz said in a postgame television interview. “So it’s pretty remarkable. I’m kind of speechless. Don’t really know what to say.”
It was the 20th four-homer game in major league history and second this season. Arizona’s Eugenio Suárez did it on April 26 against Atlanta. No player has ever hit five home runs in a game.
Kurtz finished with eight RBIs and six runs scored.
The 6-foot-5, 22-year-old slugger has 23 homers in 66 games this season. The fourth pick in last year’s amateur draft out of Wake Forest, he made his major league debut April 23 and hit his first homer May 13.
He is the youngest player with a four-homer game. Pat Seerey of the Chicago White Sox was 25 when he homered four times on July 18, 1948.
“This is the first time my godparents have been here, so they probably have to come in the rest of the year,” Kurtz said. “My parents flew in today. They’ve been here a bunch, but it was cool to have some family here for that.”
On Friday, Kurtz homered off each of the Astros’ four pitchers: Ryan Gusto, Nick Hernandez, Kaleb Ort and outfielder Cooper Hummel, who worked the ninth with the game out of hand. His longest drive was his third, a 414-foot solo shot off Ort in the eighth.
For his fourth homer, Kurtz hit an opposite-field line drive to the Crawford Boxes in left field on a 77 mph, 2-0 pitch from Hummel. The three-run shot made it 15-2.
“With a positional player on the mound, I’m just trying to move the ball forward,” Kurtz said. “You don’t want to be the guy that strikes out. That’s only my second at bat ever off a positional player, so I don’t know. Just trying to move the ball forward and get something that I can touch, and I hit another one.”
Kurtz’s double in the fourth inning hit just below the yellow line over the visitor’s bullpen, narrowly missing what would have been a fifth homer.
“Everybody was just like, laughing,” A’s shortstop Jacob Wilson said. “How is he doing it? This is not normal. He’s playing a different sport than us right now. It’s not baseball, it’s just T-ball what he’s doing right now.”
With the baseballs from his last two homers inside a plastic bag at his locker, Kurtz signed scorecards from all four A’s broadcasters and a lineup card. One of the scorecards and a bat were bound for the Baseball Hall of Fame.
Kurtz has been the best hitter in the majors in July, ranking first in batting average (.425), on-base percentage (.494), slugging percentage (1.082), runs (22), doubles (13), homers (11) and RBIs (27).
He extended his hitting streak to 12 games, and his 23 home runs are the most for an A’s rookie since Yoenis Céspedes in 2012 and fourth most in franchise history.
Kurtz entered Friday as a -325 favorite at ESPN BET to win American League Rookie of the Year. His odds moved to -2500 after Friday night.
Information from ESPN Research and The Associated Press was used in this report.
ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
NEW YORK — The Yankees on Friday acquired third baseman Ryan McMahon from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for minor league pitchers Griffin Herring and Josh Grosz, the teams announced.
The Yankees assumed the remainder of McMahon’s contract, which includes approximately $4.5 million for the rest of 2025 and $32 million over the next two seasons, a source told ESPN.
An All-Star last season, McMahon, 30, was batting .217 with 16 home runs, a .717 OPS and a National League-leading 127 strikeouts in 100 games for Colorado in 2025. After a dreadful start to the season through April, he has been significantly better, with a .246 batting average, 14 home runs and an .804 OPS. He hit home runs in the first two games after the All-Star break and another Tuesday. He is on pace to keep his four-year 20-homer streak alive.
Defensively, McMahon is a Gold Glove-caliber third baseman whose four Outs Above Average is third in the majors this season. He joins a Yankees club that has been marred by sloppy defense. On Wednesday, the Yankees committed four errors against the American East-leading Toronto Blue Jays.
“He has had some ups and downs offensively this year,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said of McMahon. “I know, over the last month, he’s really swinging the bat well, but he’s a presence, and he can really defend over there at third and has for a number of years. So, we’re excited to get him.”
Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who began Friday with 36 home runs and an MLB-leading 86 RBIs, could be the best hitter moved before the July 31 trade deadline, but the Yankees were not particularly aggressive in pursuing him, a source told ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
Though McMahon’s offensive production resulted in a 92 OPS+, which suggests he has been 8% worse than the average major league hitter this season, he’s still a significant offensive upgrade at third base for New York. The Yankees have had Oswald Peraza, one of the worst hitters in the majors, playing third base nearly every day since the club released DJ LeMahieu, another former Rockies player, earlier this month and moved Jazz Chisholm Jr. to second base.
Peraza, though a strong defender, is slashing .147/.208/.237 in 69 games this season. His 24 wRC+ ranks last among the 310 hitters with at least 160 plate appearances this season.
McMahon has played his first eight-plus seasons with the Rockies. They selected him in the second round of the 2013 draft. He debuted four years later and became a regular in 2019. By then, the Rockies were descending to the bottom of the NL West. This year, they’re 26-76 and could finish with the most losses in major league history.
He leaves that environment for New York’s pressure cooker and a club with World Series aspirations, a change the Yankees hope can help McMahon.
“Hopefully, the environment is a great thing for him, that he falls into that and doesn’t have to be the guy,” Boone said. “Go do your thing. Go find the role. But it’s our job — my job, staff, coaches, players — to make sure they’re welcomed and get them as comfortable as possible.”
The price for McMahon — and his team control over the next two seasons — was a pair of pitchers who have not reached Double-A.
Herring, 22, has a 1.71 ERA in 89⅓ innings across 16 starts between Low- and High-A this season. He was a sixth-round pick out of LSU in the 2024 draft.
Grosz, an 11th-round pick in 2023, had a 4.14 ERA in 87 innings over 16 games (15 starts) for High-A Hudson Valley this season.
With third base addressed, the Yankees will seek to acquire pitchers to bolster their rotation and bullpen. Luis Gil‘s return should help. The right-hander, who has been out all season because of a lat injury, made his third rehab start Wednesday. Boone said there’s “a good chance” Gil gets another start in the minors before making his season debut.